Arup's Tim Chapman points the way forward for people planning a career, which is likely to last at least 45 years, and through which they will encounter unfathomable change
Standard computer programming has been around for decades; what is new (ish) is the propensity for computers to teach themselves how to spot patterns and progressively improve.
Arups Tim Chapman points the way forward for people planning a career, which is likely to last at least 45 years, and through which they will encounter unfathomable change.
It is very easy to become fearful when reading press report after press report about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on our civilisation all the jobs to be lost and what will become of us? Or our children?
First, it is worthwhile being clear about what AI actually is. Definitions can all too easily become conflated with the latest scary film portraying robots with high intelligence and even human emotions great films like I Robot and Ex Machina are wonderful stories and do show what may ultimately happen but the level of technology is many decades away, if it ever happens.
What is more insidious is the progressive augmentation we get from ever more adept systems. Standard computer programming has been around for decades; what is new (ish) is the propensity for computers to teach themselves how to spot patterns and progressively improve.
And generally these algorithms are good for us, such as the ones that learn how to detect potentially cancerous moles on skin initially learning from the best doctors and thereby becoming better than any of them, then learning from historic photos with a precise diagnosis of which ones did actually turn cancerous later.
This is an application of machine learning or artificial intelligence in action the whizzy clever robots which can do anything are called artificial general intelligence (AGI).
So then what is intelligence? Einstein wrote, The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination, while Socrates wrote, I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing. It is unlikely that your HP laptop is anywhere near any thoughts that profound.
1.) Musical-rhythmic2.) Visual-spatial3.) Verbal-linguistic4.) Logical-mathematical understand principles of a causal system5.) Bodily kinaesthetic sports, dance, acting, making things6.) Interpersonal social skills7.) Intrapersonal self-reflection and aware8.) Naturalistic nurturing information to natural surroundings9.) Existential spiritual
Currently, AI is making some progress in only a small portion of these areas, fortunately. In the field of original composition, AI is making some progress in art and music writing, but mainly by averaging many prior human art.
Cloudpainter won the 2018 Robot Art Prize with a decidedly confused pastiche and the Portrait of Edmond Belamy was exhibited at Christies with an asking price of 7,000 to 9,000 it was made of an amalgamation of 15,000 portraits from the 14th to the 20th centuries so is far from original.
Every year the firm Gartner come up with its hype curve for new technologies plotting the progress of each from an innovation trigger through a peak of inflated expectations towards a trough of disillusionment, eventually into a slope of enlightenment and hopefully reaching a plateau of productivity.
Various AI technologies can be found throughout all of these zones, with AGI at the most undeveloped end.
It is worth putting AI into a context of world trends, which can combine to either thwart or reinforce existential threats so AI can be seen as either a saviour or a reinforcer for risks to humanitys future like global warming, resource depletion, destruction of our environment and deteriorating global order, alongside more usual threats like disease pandemics, which we thought we had cured but antibiotic resistance could allow to return.
Another interesting facet of this trend towards computer assisted process improvement and ever more expert systems is where does it leave the current human experts?
The professions derive their exalted position in society from the pact made at the time of the medieval guilds and it has been unchallenged until now.
Now various professions are being dumbed down by the invasion of expert systems, initially amplifying and improving expert opinions, but eventually supplanting them, apart from a small number of more complex cases.
This could easily lead to a reduction in status and salary for adherents to those professions. The recent 737 Max crashes illustrate the perils of uncontrolled trust in AI systems, but also show the zeal with which such systems are intruding into activities that we consider to be human controlled. Will truck and train drivers be needed in the long term?
AI systems can also disrupt industries in other ways by overturning standard business models. Hence Uber is the worlds biggest taxi company but owns no taxis.
Facebook is the worlds biggest media content provider but provides none of the content itself it is just a platform. Many industries are ripe for revolution in ways we cant yet imagine.
And these changes now happen quickly. It used to be that a disrupted industry had time to react to change but now it can occur in months.
This backdrop can be applied to any industry including that for infrastructure provision. In parallel, we are getting sharper about how we provide infrastructure nowadays. It is no longer the domain of nerdish engineers working in a vacuum plotting lines on maps with less consideration for the communities that will host it than they should have done.
We are much more aware of the special needs of the society for whom we provide infrastructure and which will pay for it though taxes or user charges.
We recognise that it is the outcome from the infrastructure that really matters rather than the asset themselves and we also know that the successful operation of assets is as least as noble an activity as designing new ones.
AI is intruding into all of these worlds too, and in some ways the expert systems are starting to obviate the need for high technical skills.
Equally data analytics on users of infrastructure are providing us with fascinating insights about how it can work and enable us to use these tools to design much better infrastructure that is ever more useful to the communities whose standard of living depends on its successful operation.
It is interesting to muse about whether there will be limits to the levels of intrusiveness that computers will be allowed to reach in our society. While they have the power to render many services quicker and thereby cheaper, what will happen to all the displaced humans?
Initially those that are at most risk of being displaced from the workforce are those with the lowest skills drivers being an obvious example what will the people who currently drive taxis and trucks do if that opening is no longer available to them will there be other jobs that allow them to support their families?
Presently, it seems that governments are becoming weaker and are less capable of taming the concerted global actions of the big tech organisations.
And the ambition of those large corporations to impose new technologies on us,making our lives potentially easier, but all the time minimising the tax bills that sustain our society and enable us to make our civilisation generous to everybody. Will governments eventually exert a higher level of control or will the big tech firms continue to run wild?
Before we get too worried it is worth reflecting on what computers are good for, and not so good at. We know that they are very very good at: Tasks/processes (if programmed well) Ordered memory (if designed well)
But not so good at: Curiosity Obscure disordered memory Radical rethinking Strategies Different situations Non-routine tasks
Hence an AI expert firm might thrive for two years, but would be incapable of dealing with the changes in our world, not least in the advance of technology.
It is worthwhile reflecting on the various levels at which AI might hit: Industry profound inexorable change Firm inexorable too, with winners and losers Person think of yourself or your children there will be winners and losers too; therefore we all need to make the right personal choices: staying ahead of the sorts of technology that could make us redundant. This makes it very difficult to plan for a 45-year career Society which depends on how nimble governments are and whether they stay ahead of the global tech firms?
So when AI finally hits the world of infrastructure creation and operation, it is fair to say that: Industry will become far more efficient and agile And also potentially more responsive to society And hopefully less impactful on society in terms of pollution, which can be more efficiently minimised Hopefully making construction cheaper to build lower user charges, so more affordable But blander too With fewer people employed And fewer experts needed so fewer peak salaries (some will still be needed though!).
A critical reflection is what happens to those who have no other place to go?
Author: Tim Chapman CEng FICE FIEI FREng, director and leader infrastructure London Group, Arup.
Arup's Tim Chapman points the way forward for people planning a career, which is likely to last at least 45 years, and through which they will encounter unfathomable change.It is very easy to become fearful when reading press report after press report about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI)...
More here:
The impact on infrastructure once artificial intelligence shifts into top gear - Engineers Journal
- Researchers create innovative verification techniques to increase security in artificial intelligence and image processing - European Research Council - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Who in Europe is investing the most in artificial intelligence? - Euronews - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 4 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Members of Congress Can't Stop Buying (and Nvidia Isn't 1 of Them!) - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Standard Names Porter Orr Second Vice President of Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Development - NRToday.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, the man behind the $2 trillion company powering today's artificial intelligence - CBS News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- This Warren Buffett Dividend King Stock Just Invested $1.1 Billion Into Artificial Intelligence (AI) - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Joe Rogan Reveals What Could Be 'Game Over for the Human Race' - Newsweek - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- LegalTech Artificial Intelligence Market to Soar to $6.4 Billion by 2028: Global Long-term Forecast to 2033 - Strategic ... - Yahoo Finance UK - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence Tokens Stumble Again! Is The AI Hype Over? - Coinpedia Fintech News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- CISA unveils guidelines for AI and critical infrastructure - FedScoop - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- IBM's Webinar: Cybersecurity In The Era Of Artificial Intelligence Keynotes - AiThority - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Being and becoming a good doctor in the age of artificial intelligence - Firstpost - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope to take part in G7 summit in June to talk Artificial Intelligence - Crux Now - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope Francis to attend G7 summit to speak on artificial intelligence - Catholic News Agency - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 1 Unstoppable Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy and Hold Forever - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope to bring his call for ethical artificial intelligence to G7 summit in June in southern Italy - The Associated Press - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Elon Musk Called Tesla an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Robotics Company. Does That Make It a Buy? - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Emulating neurodegeneration and aging in artificial intelligence systems - Tech Xplore - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope Francis to participate in G7 session on AI - Vatican News - English - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Bill Ackman Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist ... - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Tesla Stock Investors Cheer Progress on Its Artificial Intelligence (AI) Future - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- In Race to Build A.I., Tech Plans a Big Plumbing Upgrade - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- A Baltimore-area teacher is accused of using AI to make his boss appear racist - NPR - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Billionaires Jim Simons, Ray Dalio, and Israel Englander Are Buying - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The iPad Pro can give us a big surprise with its artificial intelligence chips. - Softonic EN - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Soar 70%, According to Wall Street. Time to Buy? - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Billionaire Bill Ackman Owns 8 Stocks -- and This Hypergrowth Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Isn't One of Them - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence Has Come for Our...Beauty Pageants? - Glamour - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Stocks to Grab Now to Ride the Artificial Intelligence Chip Boom to Riches - InvestorPlace - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Is ASML's Big Sell-off a Warning Sign to Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investors? - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks to Buy With $1,150 and Hold for Decades - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- This combines the power of artificial intelligence with human insights - finews.com - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Cohere Targets $5 Billion Valuation for ChatGPT Rival - PYMNTS.com - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- IMF: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Will Transform 40% of Jobs. Can Investors Capitalize? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Cathie Wood Is Selling These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks. Should You? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (NYSEARCA:IRBO) Shares Acquired by Creative Financial ... - Defense World - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Inaugural Plenary Meeting of States Endorsing the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial ... - Department of State - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- AMD Fell Today -- Is This a Chance to Buy the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Are Red-Hot, but Here's 1 to Avoid (for Now) - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stock to Buy and Hold Forever - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Go Parabolic - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence will radically improve health care, but only if managed carefully - The Hill - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Tennessee Makes A.I. an Outlaw to Protect Its Country Music and More - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- When Using Artificial Intelligence In Pharma R&D, Start With Identifying Problem To Solve - HBW Insight - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Why Super Micro Computer, Advanced Micro Devices, and Other Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Tumbled on Tuesday - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 3 Billionaires Are Selling Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Nvidia and Buying These 10 AI Stocks Instead - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Nvidia Just Bought 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks. These 2 Stand Out the Most. - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- UN adopts first global artificial intelligence resolution - ARMENPRESS - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- This New Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Is a Massive Game Changer for Nvidia Stock - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Nvidia Led the First Phase of Artificial Intelligence (AI), but These 2 Growth Stocks Will Lead the Next Phases ... - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Meet Wall Street's Newest Stock-Split Stock, Along With the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Likeliest to Follow in Its ... - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Amid Rumors of a Deal With Rivian, Apple Acquired This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Start-Up Instead - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- UN adopts first global artificial intelligence resolution - CGTN - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 1 No-Brainer Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy With $25 and Hold for 10 Years - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Is Intel the Best Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock to Buy Before It Skyrockets? - The Motley Fool - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- The greater social implications of artificial intelligence - New Day NW - KING5.com - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- AI comes to the world of beauty as eyelash robot uses artificial intelligence to place fake lashes - Fox News - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Beyer Appointed To Bipartisan Task Force On Artificial Intelligence - Falls Church News Press - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Why Did Nvidia Invest in These 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks? Should You Buy Them, Too? - The Motley Fool - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Three key themes on artificial intelligence - Research Information - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- How Artificial Intelligence is transforming consumerism - WFLA - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- SAP names Philipp Herzig as chief artificial intelligence officer - CIO - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Unleashing the Power of Artificial Intelligence: Transforming Web-Based Applications for Enhanced Efficiency and User ... - Financialbuzz.com - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Koch Industries continues to accelerate its artificial intelligence initiative - The Business Journals - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Forget Nvidia: These 3 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Can Be the Next Stock-Split Stocks - The Motley Fool - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence for small business focus of upcoming JWCC Lunch and Learn on Feb. 28 Muddy River News - Muddy River News - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Opponents Highlight the Environmental Impact of Artificial Intelligence - News-Press Now - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Generative AI's environmental costs are soaring and mostly secret - Nature.com - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Chapter Summary: Genesis of Artificial Intelligence and a Scientific Revolution: 1950-1979 - EIN News - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- What would Thomas Aquinas make of Artificial Intelligence? - ACI Africa - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- ChatGPT Predicted Bitcoin Price Will "Skyrocket" - Cryptonews - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Worried About an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Bubble? Consider This Billionaire Investor's Advice. - Yahoo Finance - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- This Super Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Be at the Beginning of a Terrific Bull Run - Yahoo Finance - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire - Yahoo Finance - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Will AI replace Colorado teachers? Here's what experts say. - The Colorado Sun - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Nvidia Could Be About to Counter a Big Artificial Intelligence (AI) Threat With This Move - Yahoo Finance - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- The Healthiest U.S. Pharma Companies: Ranked by RealRate's Impressive Artificial Intelligence - Medium - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Down 84%, Is This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock a Buy After an Earnings Pop? - The Motley Fool - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- 'AI for Humans' may be the most entertaining way to learn about artificial intelligence - Fast Company - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]