Graham Allison alerts us to artificial intelligence being the epicenter of todays superpower arms race.
Drawing heavily on Kai-Fu Lees basic thesis, Allison draws the battlelines: the United States vs. China, across the domains of human talent, big data, and government commitment.
Allison further points to the absence of controls, or even dialogue, on what AI means for strategic stability. With implied resignation, his article acknowledges the smashing of Pandoras Box, noting many AI advancements occur in the private sector beyond government scrutiny or control.
However, unlike the chilling and destructive promise of nuclear weapons, the threat posed by AI in popular imagination is amorphous, restricted to economic dislocation or sci-fi depictions of robotic apocalypse.
Absent from Allisons call to action is explaining the so what?why does the future hinge on AI dominance? After all, the few examples (mass surveillance, pilot HUDs, autonomous weapons) Allison does provide reference continued enhancements to the status quoincremental change, not paradigm shift.
As Allison notes, President Xi Jinping awoke to the power of AI after AlphaGo defeated the worlds number one Go human player, Lee Sedol. But why? What did Xi see in this computation that persuaded him to make AI the centerpiece of Chinese national endeavor?
The answer: AIs superhuman capacity to think.
To explain, lets begin with what I am not talking about. I do not mean so-called general AIthe broad-spectrum intelligence with self-directed goals acting independent of, or in spite of, preferences of human creators.
Eminent figures such as Elon Musk and Sam Harris warn of the coming of general AI. In particular, the so-called singularity, wherein AI evolves the ability to rewrite its own code. According to Musk and Harris, this will precipitate an exponential explosion in that AIs capability, realizing 10,000 IQ and beyond in a matter of mere hours. At such time, they argue, AI will become to us what we are to ants, with similar levels of regard.
I concur with Sam and Elon that the advent of artificial general superintelligence is highly probable, but this still requires transformative technological breakthroughs the circumstances for which are hard to predict. Accordingly, whether general AI is realized 30 or 200 years from now remains unknown, as is the nature of the intelligence created; such as if it is conscious or instinctual, innocent or a weapon.
When I discuss the AI arms race I mean the continued refinement of existing technology. Artificial intelligence that, while being a true intelligence in the sense of having the ability to self-learn, it has a single programmed goal constrained within a narrow set of rules and parameters (such as a game).
To demonstrate what President Xi saw in AI winning a strategy game, and why the global balance of power hinges on it, we need to talk briefly about games.
Artificial Intelligence and Games
There are two types of strategy games: games of complete information and games of incomplete information. A game of complete information is one in which every player can see all of the parameters and options of every other player.
Tic-Tac-Toe is a game of complete information. An average adult can solve this game with less than thirty minutes of practice. That is, adopt a strategy that no matter what your opponent does, you can correctly counter it to obtain a draw. If your opponent deviates from that same strategy, you can exploit them and win.
Conversely, a basic game of uncertainty is Rock, Scissors, Paper. Upon learning the rules, all players immediately know the optimal strategy. If your opponent throws Rock, you want to throw Paper. If they throw Paper, you want to throw Scissors, and so on.
Unfortunately, you do not know ahead of time what your opponent is going to do. Being aware of this, what is the correct strategy?
The unexploitable strategy is to throw Rock 33 percent of the time, Scissors 33 percent of the time, and Paper 33 percent of the time, each option being chosen randomly to avoid observable patterns or bias.
This unexploitable strategy means that, no matter what approach your opponent adopts, they won't be able to gain an edge against you.
But lets imagine your opponent throws Rock 100 percent of the time. How does your randomized strategy stack up? 33 percent of the time you'll tie (Rock), 33 percent of the time you'll win (Paper), and 33 percent of the time you'll lose (Scissors)the total expected value of your strategy against theirs is 0.
Is this your optimal strategy? No. If your opponent is throwing Rock 100 percent of the time, you should be exploiting your opponent by throwing Paper.
Naturally, if your opponent is paying attention they, in turn, will adjust to start throwing Scissors. You and your opponent then go through a series of exploits and counter-exploits until you both gradually drift toward an unexploitable equilibrium.
With me so far? Good. Let's talk about computing and games.
As stated, nearly any human can solve Tic-Tac-Toe, and computers solved checkers many years ago. However more complex games such as Chess, Go, and No-limit Texas Holdem poker have not been solved.
Despite all being mind-bogglingly complex, of the three chess is simplest. In 1997, reigning world champion Garry Kasparov was soundly beaten by the supercomputer Deep Blue. Today, anyone reading this has access to a chess computer on their phone that could trounce any human player.
Meanwhile, the eastern game of Go eluded programmers. Go has many orders of magnitude more combinations than chess. Until recently, humans beat computers by being far more efficient in selecting moveswe don't spend our time trying to calculate every possible option twenty-five moves deep. Instead, we intuitively narrow our decisionmaking to a few good choices and assess those.
Moreover, unlike traditional computers, people are able to think in non-linear abstraction. Humans can, for example, imagine a future state during the late stages of the game beyond which a computer could possibly calculate. We are not constrained by a forward-looking linear progression. Humans can wonderfully imagine a future endpoint, and work backwards from there to formulate a plan.
Many previously believed that this combination of factorsnear-infinite combinations and the human ability to think abstractlymeant that go would forever remain beyond the reach of the computer.
Then in 2016 something unprecedented happened. The AI system, AlphaGo, defeated the reigning world champion go player Lee Sedol 4-1.
But that was nothing: two years later, a new AI system, AlphaZero, was pitched against AlphaGo.
Unlike its predecessor which contained significant databases of go theory, all AlphaZero knew was the rules, from which it played itself continuously over forty days.
After this period of self-learning, AlphaZero annihilated AlphaGo, not 4-1, but 100-0.
In forty days AlphaZero had superseded 2,500 years of total human accumulated knowledge and even invented a range of strategies that had never been discovered before in history.
Meanwhile, chess computers are now a whole new frontier of competition, with programmers pitting their systems against one another to win digital titles. At the time of writing the world's best chess engine is a program known as Stockfish, able to smash any human Grandmaster easily. In December 2017 Stockfish was pitted against AlphaZero.
Again, AlphaZero only knew the rules. AlphaZero taught itself to play chess over a period of nine hours. The result over 100 games? AlphaZero twenty-eight wins, zero losses, seventy-two draws.
Not only can artificial intelligence crush human players, it also obliterates the best computer programs that humans can design.
Artificial Intelligence and Abstraction
Most chess computers play a purely mathematical strategy in a game yet to be solved. They are raw calculators and look like it too. AlphaZero, at least in style, appears to play every bit like a human. It makes long-term positional plays as if it can visualize the board; spectacular piece sacrifices that no computer could ever possibly pull off, and exploitative exchanges that would make a computer, if it were able, cringe with complexity. In short, AlphaZero is a genuine intelligence. Not self-aware, and constrained by a sandboxed reality, but real.
Despite differences in complexity there is one limitation that chess and go both share they're games of complete information.
Enter No-limit Texas Holdem (hereon, Poker). This is the ultimate game of uncertainty and incomplete information. In poker, you know what your hole cards are, the stack sizes for each player, and the community cards that have so far come out on the board. However, you don't know your opponent's cards, whether they will bet or raise or how much, or what cards are coming out on later streets of betting.
Poker is arguably the most complex game in the world, combining mathematics, strategy, timing, psychology, and luck. Unlike Chess or Go, Pokers possibilities are truly infinite and across multiple players simultaneously. The idea that a computer could beat top Poker professionals seems risible.
Except that it has already happened. In 2017, the AI system Libratus comprehensively beat the best Head's-up (two-player) poker players in the world.
And now, just months ago, another AI system Pluribus achieved the unthinkableit crushed super high stakes poker games against multiple top professionals simultaneously, doing so at a win-rate of five big blinds per hour. For perspective, the difference in skill level between the best English Premier League soccer team and the worst would not be that much.
Go here to see the original:
Explained: The Artificial Intelligence Race is an Arms Race - The National Interest Online
- Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Prediction of Chiari Malformation Type 1 Recurrence After Posterior Fossa ... - Cureus - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Fritz Lang First Depicted Artificial Intelligence on Film in Metropolis (1927), and It Frightened People Even Then - Open Culture - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Dehumanizing the Wars: Introduction of Artificial Intelligence in the Warfare - Modern Diplomacy - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Google Parent Alphabet Is Selling Shares of 2 Hypergrowth Stocks and Piling Into a Promising Artificial Intelligence (AI ... - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Meta AI Head: ChatGPT Will Never Reach Human Intelligence - PYMNTS.com - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Waiting for Alexa: When Will Amazon Strike Up the AI Conversation? - PYMNTS.com - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence town halls? House committee weighs new approach before writing AI rules - Washington Times - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Inventing AI: Tracing the diffusion of artificial intelligence with U.S. patents - United States Patent and Trademark Office - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- UM6P to Host High-Level Forum on Artificial Intelligence, Development in Africa - Morocco World News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- DHS warns of threats to election posed by artificial intelligence - ABC News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence, great wealth transfer: Why this financial analyst sees a rosy time ahead for stocks - CNBC - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- As S&P 500 reaches fresh highs, experts say generative artificial intelligence will create new investment opportunities - CNBC - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Google Parent Alphabet Is Selling Shares of 2 Hypergrowth Stocks and Piling Into a Promising Artificial Intelligence (AI ... - MSN - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- The Best Artificial Intelligence (AI) ETF to Invest $1,000 in Right Now - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- How To Land A Job In Artificial Intelligence (AI) - Forbes - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Madhumita Murgia On The Good, Bad And Ugly Of Artificial Intelligence In Our Daily Lives - Forbes India - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Researchers use artificial intelligence to classify brain tumors - Voice of America - VOA News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- BBVA steps up its plans in artificial intelligence by signing an agreement with OpenAI - BBVA - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Study including WVU and Marshall analyzes cyber threats to Artificial Intelligence systems - West Virginia MetroNews - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Stock-Split Watch: 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Look Ready to Split - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- 2 Spectacular ETFs That Can Help You Capitalize on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Boom - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- NASA pledging responsible use of artificial intelligence | National | khq.com - KHQ Right Now - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- 1 Stock Down 11% to Buy Before Artificial Intelligence (AI) Could Supercharge Its Growth and Send It Soaring - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Alphabet Goes All In on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Is It Time to Go All In on the Stock? - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: Here's 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy in May and Hold Forever - Yahoo Finance - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Offer Dividends and Long-Term Returns - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Forget Nvidia: Billionaires Are Selling It and Buying These 2 Supercharged Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stocks ... - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- 1 Ridiculously Undervalued Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist - Yahoo Finance - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Missed Out on Nvidia's Ginormous Gains? Here's an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock You Can Buy Right Now. - The Motley Fool - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Researchers create innovative verification techniques to increase security in artificial intelligence and image processing - European Research Council - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Who in Europe is investing the most in artificial intelligence? - Euronews - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 4 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Members of Congress Can't Stop Buying (and Nvidia Isn't 1 of Them!) - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Standard Names Porter Orr Second Vice President of Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Development - NRToday.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, the man behind the $2 trillion company powering today's artificial intelligence - CBS News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- This Warren Buffett Dividend King Stock Just Invested $1.1 Billion Into Artificial Intelligence (AI) - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Joe Rogan Reveals What Could Be 'Game Over for the Human Race' - Newsweek - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- LegalTech Artificial Intelligence Market to Soar to $6.4 Billion by 2028: Global Long-term Forecast to 2033 - Strategic ... - Yahoo Finance UK - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence Tokens Stumble Again! Is The AI Hype Over? - Coinpedia Fintech News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- CISA unveils guidelines for AI and critical infrastructure - FedScoop - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- IBM's Webinar: Cybersecurity In The Era Of Artificial Intelligence Keynotes - AiThority - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Being and becoming a good doctor in the age of artificial intelligence - Firstpost - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope to take part in G7 summit in June to talk Artificial Intelligence - Crux Now - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope Francis to attend G7 summit to speak on artificial intelligence - Catholic News Agency - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 1 Unstoppable Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy and Hold Forever - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope to bring his call for ethical artificial intelligence to G7 summit in June in southern Italy - The Associated Press - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Elon Musk Called Tesla an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Robotics Company. Does That Make It a Buy? - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Emulating neurodegeneration and aging in artificial intelligence systems - Tech Xplore - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pope Francis to participate in G7 session on AI - Vatican News - English - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Bill Ackman Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist ... - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Tesla Stock Investors Cheer Progress on Its Artificial Intelligence (AI) Future - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- In Race to Build A.I., Tech Plans a Big Plumbing Upgrade - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- A Baltimore-area teacher is accused of using AI to make his boss appear racist - NPR - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Billionaires Jim Simons, Ray Dalio, and Israel Englander Are Buying - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The iPad Pro can give us a big surprise with its artificial intelligence chips. - Softonic EN - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Soar 70%, According to Wall Street. Time to Buy? - Yahoo Finance - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Billionaire Bill Ackman Owns 8 Stocks -- and This Hypergrowth Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Isn't One of Them - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence Has Come for Our...Beauty Pageants? - Glamour - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Stocks to Grab Now to Ride the Artificial Intelligence Chip Boom to Riches - InvestorPlace - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Is ASML's Big Sell-off a Warning Sign to Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investors? - The Motley Fool - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 3 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks to Buy With $1,150 and Hold for Decades - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- This combines the power of artificial intelligence with human insights - finews.com - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Cohere Targets $5 Billion Valuation for ChatGPT Rival - PYMNTS.com - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- IMF: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Will Transform 40% of Jobs. Can Investors Capitalize? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Cathie Wood Is Selling These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks. Should You? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (NYSEARCA:IRBO) Shares Acquired by Creative Financial ... - Defense World - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Inaugural Plenary Meeting of States Endorsing the Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial ... - Department of State - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- AMD Fell Today -- Is This a Chance to Buy the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock? - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Are Red-Hot, but Here's 1 to Avoid (for Now) - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- A Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stock to Buy and Hold Forever - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Go Parabolic - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence will radically improve health care, but only if managed carefully - The Hill - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Tennessee Makes A.I. an Outlaw to Protect Its Country Music and More - The New York Times - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- When Using Artificial Intelligence In Pharma R&D, Start With Identifying Problem To Solve - HBW Insight - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Why Super Micro Computer, Advanced Micro Devices, and Other Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Tumbled on Tuesday - Yahoo Finance - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- 3 Billionaires Are Selling Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Nvidia and Buying These 10 AI Stocks Instead - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Nvidia Just Bought 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks. These 2 Stand Out the Most. - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- UN adopts first global artificial intelligence resolution - ARMENPRESS - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- This New Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Is a Massive Game Changer for Nvidia Stock - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]
- Nvidia Led the First Phase of Artificial Intelligence (AI), but These 2 Growth Stocks Will Lead the Next Phases ... - The Motley Fool - March 22nd, 2024 [March 22nd, 2024]