We may not have reached artificial general intelligence (AGI) yet, but as one of the leading experts in the theoretical field claims, it may get here sooner rather than later.
During his closing remarks at this year's Beneficial AGI Summit in Panama, computer scientist and haberdashery enthusiast Ben Goertzel said that although people most likely won't build human-level or superhuman AI until 2029 or 2030, there's a chance it could happen as soon as 2027.
After that, the SingularityNET founder said, AGI could then evolve rapidly into artificial superintelligence (ASI), which he defines as an AI with all the combined knowledge of human civilization.
"No one has created human-level artificial general intelligence yet; nobody has a solid knowledge of when we're going to get there," Goertzel told the conference audience. "I mean, there are known unknowns and probably unknown unknowns."
"On the other hand, to me it seems quite plausible we could get to human-level AGI within, let's say, the next three to eight years," he added.
To be fair, Goertzel is far from alone in attempting to predict when AGI will be achieved.
Last fall, for instance, Google DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg reiterated his more than decade-old prediction that there's a 50/50 chance that humans invent AGI by the year 2028. In a tweet from May of last year, "AI godfather" and ex-Googler Geoffrey Hinton said he now predicts, "without much confidence," that AGI is five to 20 years away.
Best known as the creator of Sophia the humanoid robot, Goertzel has long theorized about the date of the so-called "singularity," or the point at which AI reaches human-level intelligence and subsequently surpasses it.
Until the past few years, AGI, as Goertzel and his cohort describe it, seemed like a pipe dream, but with the large language model (LLM) advances made by OpenAI since it thrust ChatGPT upon the world in late 2022, that possibility seems ever close although he's quick to point out that LLMs by themselves are not what's going to lead to AGI.
"My own view is once you get to human-level AGI, within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI unless the AGI threatens to throttle its own development out of its own conservatism," the AI pioneer added. "I think once an AGI can introspect its own mind, then it can do engineering and science at a human or superhuman level."
"It should be able to make a smarter AGI, then an even smarter AGI, then an intelligence explosion," he added, presumably referring to the singularity.
Naturally, there are a lot of caveats to what Goertzel is preaching, not the least of which being that by human standards, even a superhuman AI would not have a "mind" the way we do. Then there's the assumption that the evolution of the technology would continue down a linear pathway as if in a vacuum from the rest of human society and the harms we bring to the planet.
All the same, it's a compelling theory and given how rapidly AI has progressed just in the past few years alone, his comments shouldn't be entirely discredited.
More on AGI:Amazon AGI Team Say Their AI is Showing "Emergent Properties"
See original here:
Artificial Superintelligence Could Arrive by 2027, Scientist Predicts - Futurism
- Creating 'good' AGI that won't kill us all: Crypto's Artificial Superintelligence Alliance - Cointelegraph - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Beyond the Buzz: Clear Language is Necessary for Clear Policy on AI | TechPolicy.Press - Tech Policy Press - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Whoever develops artificial general intelligence first wins the whole game - ForexLive - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- AGI and Democracy - Ash Center - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Elon Musk Believes 'Super Intelligence' Is Inevitable and Could End Humanity - Observer - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- What was (A)I made for? - by The Ink - The.Ink - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) spending by the U.S. government | Brookings - Brookings Institution - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Fetch.ai, Ocean Protocol and SingularityNET to Partner on Decentralized AI - PYMNTS.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Unveiling Sam Altman's Insights from Lex Fridman Interview - hackernoon.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Scientists create AI models that can talk to each other and pass on skills with limited human input - Livescience.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Will AI save humanity? U.S. tech fest offers reality check - Japan Today - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Artificial general intelligence and higher education - Inside Higher Ed - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- The Madness of the Race to Build Artificial General Intelligence - Truthdig - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Companies Like Morgan Stanley Are Already Making Early Versions of AGI - Observer - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Types of Artificial Intelligence That You Should Know in 2024 - Simplilearn - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- US government warns AI may be an 'extinction-level threat' to humans - TweakTown - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Amazon's VP of AGI: Arrival of AGI Not 'Moment in Time' SXSW 2024 - AI Business - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- What is general intelligence in the world of AI and computers? The race for the artificial mind explained - PC Gamer - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Beyond human intelligence: Claude 3.0 and the quest for AGI - VentureBeat - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- DeepMind Co-founder on AGI and the AI Race - SXSW 2024 - AI Business - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Rejuve.Bio Launches Groundbreaking Crowd Fund on NetCapital to Pioneer the Future of Artificial General ... - PR Newswire - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Employees at Top AI Labs Fear Safety Is an Afterthought - TIME - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Meta hooks up with Hammerspace for advanced AI infrastructure project Blocks and Files - Blocks & Files - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Among the A.I. Doomsayers - The New Yorker - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- OpenAI, Salesforce and Others Boost Efforts for Ethical AI - PYMNTS.com - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Google DeepMind C.E.O. Demis Hassabis on the Path From Chatbots to A.G.I. - The New York Times - February 24th, 2024 [February 24th, 2024]
- Bill Foster, a particle physicist-turned-congressman, on why he's worried about artificial general intelligence - FedScoop - February 24th, 2024 [February 24th, 2024]
- Generative AI Defined: How It Works, Benefits and Dangers - TechRepublic - February 24th, 2024 [February 24th, 2024]
- AI and You: OpenAI's Sora Previews Text-to-Video Future, First Ivy League AI Degree - CNET - February 24th, 2024 [February 24th, 2024]
- Vitalik Buterin and Sandeep Nailwal headline decentralized agi summit @ Ethdenver tackling threats of centralized AI - Grit Daily - February 24th, 2024 [February 24th, 2024]
- What is AI? A-to-Z Glossary of Essential AI Terms in 2024 - Tech.co - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- With Sora, OpenAI highlights the mystery and clarity of its mission | The AI Beat - VentureBeat - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- Why, Despite All the Hype We Hear, AI Is Not One of Us - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- What is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Why It's Not Here Yet: A Reality Check for AI Enthusiasts - Unite.AI - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- Forget Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) the big impact is already here and its called AI agents - IT World Canada - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- Future of Artificial Intelligence: Predictions and Impact on Society - Medriva - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- Bret Taylor and Clay Bavor talk AI startups, AGI, and job disruptions - Semafor - February 22nd, 2024 [February 22nd, 2024]
- 3 scary breakthroughs AI will make in 2024 - Livescience.com - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- What Is Artificial Intelligence (AI)? - Council on Foreign Relations - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- 6. AI in Everyday Life How Artificial Intelligence is Impacting Society - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- 2023 Was A Breakout Year for AI - What Can We Expect Looking Forward? - Securities.io - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- 2024 Tech Predictions: From Sci-Fi Fantasy to Reality - Exploring Cinematic Tech Prophecies - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- AGI predictions for 2024. The major LLM players, as well as | by Paul Pallaghy, PhD | Dec, 2023 - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- 10 Scary Breakthroughs AI Will Make in 2024 | by AI News | Dec, 2023 - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- Top 5 Myths About AI Debunked. Unraveling the Truth: Separating AI | by Michiel Meire | Dec, 2023 - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- AI Revolution: Unleashing the Power of Artificial Intelligence in Our Lives - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- Superintelligence Unleashed: Navigating the Perils and Promises of Tomorrow's AI Landscape with - Medium - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- AI in taxation: Transforming or replacing? - Times of Malta - January 2nd, 2024 [January 2nd, 2024]
- ChatGPT egg balancing task convinced Microsoft that AGI is closer - Business Insider - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Can We Stop Runaway A.I.? - The New Yorker - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Microsoft's 'Sparks of AGI' ignite debate on humanlike AI - The Jerusalem Post - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Artificial General Intelligence is the Answer, says OpenAI CEO - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI glossary: words and terms to know about the booming industry - NBC News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Is medicine ready for AI? Doctors, computer scientists, and ... - MIT News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- What marketers should keep in mind when adopting AI - MarTech - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Zoom Invests in and Partners With Anthropic to Improve Its AI ... - PYMNTS.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Hippocratic AI launches With $50M to power healthcare chatbots - VatorNews - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Potential of AI in Tax Practice Relies on Understanding its ... - Thomson Reuters Tax & Accounting - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- How AI Knows Things No One Told It - Scientific American - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Operation HOPE and CAU Host ChatGPT Creator to Discuss AI - Black Enterprise - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Paper Claims AI May Be a Civilization-Destroying "Great Filter" - Futurism - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Vintage AI Predictions Show Our Hopes and Fears Aren't New ... - Gizmodo - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AIs Impact on Journalism - Signals AZ - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- What is Augmented Intelligence? Explanation and Examples - Techopedia - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- 'Godfather' of AI is now having second thoughts - The B.C. Catholic - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Top Philippine universities - Philstar.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Politics of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - National and New Jersey ... - InsiderNJ - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- People warned AI is becoming like a God and a 'catastrophe' is ... - UNILAD - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- "Zero tolerance" for hallucinations - Dr. Vishal Sikka on how Vianai builds AI applications, and the mixed emotions of the AI hype cycle -... - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]