Given that artificial intelligence is increasingly overtaking people on a range of expert tasks, will it someday make human managers obsolete? Luckily, theres one cognitive ability where people still have a big edge: reframing. Reframing is not about solving a problem (with either intuition or conscious reasoning) but about defining what exactly is the problem to be solved. It isnt easy, and its usually time-consuming, but it is key to both discovering breakthrough innovations and adapting to a rapidly changing environment. Four tactics can help you cultivate this ability: dedicating time to not thinking about the problem, making hidden assumptions explicit, playful exploration, and leveraging surprising analogies.
Of all the tools managers use to lead their businesses, thinking is the most crucial. It involves two distinct ways of processing information: intuitive and conscious, which the Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman labeled thinking fast and slow. Today computers increasingly outperform people in both. With their raw calculative power, computers easily beat humans in conscious-reasoning tasks, as long as the rules and parameters of the situation are known. Managers routinely turn to mathematical optimization and simulation to build investment portfolios, make pricing decisions, and understand supply-chain risks. And while humans used to be superior at pattern recognition, which is largely intuitive, computers now can be trained to develop their own intuitions from large masses of data using machine learning. In recent studies they proved better than humans at expert tasks such as detecting cancer in computer tomography scans and choosing investment targets.
Given the way things are going, can managers continue to add value to organizations? Luckily, theres one cognitive ability where people still have the edge over computers: thinking really slow.
Really slow thinking is used in reframing the process by which we reexamine the parameters, objectives, and assumptions we approach decisions with. Reframing is not about solving the problem (with either intuition or conscious reasoning) but about defining what exactly is the problem to be solved.
Reframing isnt easy. The way in which managers frame decisions can be deeply entrenched in industry traditions, organizational history, and executives own education and experience. Reframing can be extremely time-consuming, which is why we see it as thinking really slow.
Reframing is crucial because groundbreaking business model innovations often result when companies break away from established ideas about how value is created and captured. Look at Amazon. In 1999 a CNBC reporter challenged Jeff Bezos because the company, with its large, expensive distributions centers and many employees, was no longer the pure internet play investors were high on. Internet, shminternet, Bezos replied. He rejected the view that a low-cost online business model was essential to competing. Instead of accepting the pure internet versus traditional retail dichotomy, he reframed the conversation in terms of an obsession with delivering a great customer experience and explained how all Amazons strategic choices focused on that goal.
When market dynamics change, reframing can be especially critical. Consider Nokia. In the feature phone business, it had learned to expect that with successful new offerings, sales took off quickly and profits were good. As a result, the company decided against some costly investments and walked back courses of action that didnt produce immediate results. In the early 2000s it pulled the plug on many pioneering innovations that were seen as too risky or didnt initially experience widespread adoption, including touchscreen phones, tablet devices, and mobile gaming. This approach was particularly damaging when competition moved to the ecosystem level. While Nokia continued to flood the market with new hardware, software development kits and third-party ecosystem and apps were a second priority, a former Nokia executive lamented. Moreover, as a former Nokia manager put it in an interview, Large-scale consumer services are not made in a year or two. We have often lacked patience for that. The smartphone era required a new long-game mindset that the quickly moving hardware king lacked.
Humans ability to think really slow also is key to state-of-the-art AI, which doesnt function unless people first reframe a business problem as an AI problem. As Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb have argued, AI is simply a variety of prediction algorithms. Reframing problems that demand time-consuming human judgment and careful analysis (such as identifying insurance fraud and assessing creditworthiness) as prediction problems is precisely how the likes of Lemonade and Kabbage have shaken up mature businesses such as consumer insurance and small-business lending.
In a world where managers can use computers to enhance their ability to think fast and slow, the ability to reframe will increasingly separate the wheat from the chaff. Here are four strategies to help you cultivate it:
Dedicate time to not thinking about the problem. Research suggests that a period of incubation helps produce more creative solutions. When you set aside a problem for a period, you distance yourself from its current framing, making room for restructuring and spontaneous insights. So after you initiate the process of solving a problem, go and do something completely different for a while, letting it cook slowly on your back burner.
Make hidden assumptions explicit. Were mostly unaware of the limiting, self-imposed assumptions with which we approach situations. Group processes that are designed to induce cognitive conflict can help surface them. You can make one group argue against another groups solution (devils advocacy) or make two groups develop opposing solutions to a problem (dialectical inquiry). Building a mathematical model of the problem can also be helpful, because it forces you to spell out assumptions about what is causing the problem and how proposed remedies are supposed to work. Modeling often reveals unanticipated dynamics, triggering shifts in mindsets about how to best manage certain things. When Fluor Corporation introduced simulation modeling to help predict changes in the costs and schedules of complex projects, managers started to see that those changes could be managed proactively rather than dealt with the retrospectively, as was industry practice at the time.
Engage in playful exploration. Injecting an element of the imaginative into decision making can help managers mentally distance themselves from tacit assumptions and industry recipes what everyone who knows the industry understands and unleash creativity. This liberation from ordinary constraints can be accomplished by, for example, asking teams to build Lego models of their business ideas in order to communicate them to others.
Leverage (surprising) analogies. Analogies are powerful tools for reframing familiar problems. Ideas and practices from one industry can be used to reshape another. Berry Gordy Jr., for instance, made Motown Records into a hit factory by modeling it after the Ford Motor Companys assembly line, where he had previously worked. In some cases, exposing yourself to something completely different like combat sports, opera, or superhero comics can be a great way to gain fresh insights that other insiders lack. Apples minimalist design, for instance, was inspired by the calligraphy classes, Zen Buddhism lessons, and Bauhaus architecture Steve Jobs was exposed to. Even when the analogy is imperfect, it may provide the rough outlines of a novel framing of a vexing problem.
While managers can add these practices to their tool kits to enhance their own reframing capabilities, they also have a responsibility to ensure that the broader organization supports reframing. The first step is to build channels and foster a culture where the in-house devils advocates and visionaries can voice their concerns and ideas and employees have time for playful exploration and incubation. Though such efforts may not result in tangible benefits immediately, they may be essential for the renewal and long-term prosperity of the organization and its stakeholders.
See the rest here:
Why AI Will Never Replace Managers - Harvard Business Review
- Chinese national arrested and charged with stealing AI trade secrets from Google - NPR - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- President Biden Calls for Ban on AI Voice Impersonations During State of the Union - Variety - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Revolutionize Your Business with AWS Generative AI Competency Partners | Amazon Web Services - AWS Blog - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Broadcom Expects AI Demand to Help Offset Weakness Elsewhere - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Micron Hits Record High With Analysts Calling It an 'Under-Appreciated AI Beneficiary' - Investopedia - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- The Adams administration quietly hired its first AI czar. Who is he? - City & State New York - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI likely to increase energy use and accelerate climate misinformation report - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Double, and It Is Way Cheaper Than Nvidia - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Fake images made to show Trump with Black supporters highlight concerns around AI and elections - The Associated Press - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research - Nature.com - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Analysis | House AI task force leaders take long view on regulating the tools - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Don't Give Your Business Data to AI Companies - Dark Reading - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- NIST, the lab at the center of Bidens AI safety push, is decaying - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Essay | AI is Coming! Tips for Staying Calm and Carrying On - The Wall Street Journal - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI can be easily used to make fake election photos - report - BBC.com - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI could be an extraordinary force for good. So why do our politicians still not have a plan? - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Mapping Disease Trajectories from Birth to Death with AI - Neuroscience News - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- India plans 10,000-GPU sovereign AI supercomputer - The Register - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- SAP enhances Datasphere and SAC for AI-driven transformation - CIO - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Jim Cramer names companies and sectors poised to rally on the AI wave - CNBC - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- The job applicants shut out by AI: The interviewer sounded like Siri - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Microsoft confirms Surface and Windows AI event for March 21st - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Adobes new Express app brings Firefly AI tools to iOS and Android - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- A Google AI Watched 30,000 Hours of Video GamesNow It Makes Its Own - Singularity Hub - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Palantir CEO Karp on TITAN, AI Warfare Technology - Bloomberg - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Elliptic Curve Murmurations Found With AI Take Flight - Quanta Magazine - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- 5 AI Stocks to Buy in March 2024, According to Analysts - TipRanks.com - TipRanks - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Wix's new AI chatbot builds websites in seconds based on prompts - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Amid record high energy demand, America is running out of electricity - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI Crypto Tokens in 5 Minutes: What to Know and Where to Start - Inc. - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- 'The Worlds I See' by AI visionary Fei-Fei Li '99 selected as Princeton Pre-read - Princeton University - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI is having a 1995 moment, analyst says - Business Insider - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Vatican research group's book outlines AI's 'brave new world' - National Catholic Reporter - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Honor's Magic 6 Pro launches internationally with AI-powered eye tracking on the way - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Google explains Gemini's embarrassing AI pictures of diverse Nazis - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Google cut a deal with Reddit for AI training data - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- What's the point of Elon Musk's AI company? - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI agents like Rabbit aim to book your vacation and order your Uber - NPR - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Announcing Microsofts open automation framework to red team generative AI Systems - Microsoft - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- After Nvidia's latest blowout, here are 20 AI stocks expected to rise as much as 44% - Yahoo Finance - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- 1 Exceptional AI Chip Stock Investors Need to Know About in 2024 - The Motley Fool - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Nvidia briefly hits $2 trillion valuation as AI frenzy grips Wall Street - Reuters - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI Chatbots Can Guess Your Personal Information From What You ... - WIRED - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Harvard IT Launches Pilot of AI Sandbox to Enable Walled-Off Use ... - Harvard Crimson - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Advancing policing through AI: Insights from the global law ... - Police News - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Hochul announces new SUNY, IBM investments in AI - Olean Times Herald - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Nvidia's banking on TensorRT to expand its generative AI dominance - The Verge - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI expands from MRFs to vehicles - Plastics Recycling Update - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI Reads Ancient Scroll Charred by Mount Vesuvius in Tech First - Scientific American - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- A DEEPer (squared) dive into AI Harvard Gazette - Harvard Gazette - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Florida bar weighs whether lawyers using AI need client consent - Reuters - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Cognizant and Vianai Systems Announce Strategic Partnership to ... - PR Newswire - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- How AI could speed up scientific discoveries, from proteins to ... - NPR - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI challenge to deliver better healthcare | Western Australian ... - Government of Western Australia - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Henry Kissinger: The Path to AI Arms Control - Foreign Affairs Magazine - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Stability AI releases StableStudio in latest push for open-source AI - The Verge - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai Predicts That This Profession Will Be ... - The Motley Fool - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Frances privacy watchdog eyes protection against data scraping in AI action plan - TechCrunch - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Investing in Hippocratic AI - Andreessen Horowitz - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- As Alphabet flexes its AI prowess, there's a 'new elephant in the room' for Google - MarketWatch - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Boring Future of Generative AI | WIRED - WIRED - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- OpenAI readies new open-source AI model, The Information reports - Reuters.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- What every CEO should know about generative AI - McKinsey - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI creates images of the 'perfect' man and woman - Sky News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Audit AI search tools now, before they skew research - Nature.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- 3 Reasons C3.ai Stock Could Be Your Golden Ticket to the AI ... - InvestorPlace - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Zoom makes a big bet on AI with investment in Anthropic - VentureBeat - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI voice phone scams are on the rise. Here's how to avoid them - USA TODAY - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Amazon is building an AI-powered conversational experience for ... - The Verge - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI speculators need to 'differentiate between actual spending and investment' and hype: Strategist - Yahoo Finance - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI Can Be Both Accurate and Transparent - HBR.org Daily - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- You're Probably Underestimating AI Chatbots | WIRED - WIRED - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI presents political peril for 2024 with threat to mislead voters - The Associated Press - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- We need AI to help us face the challenges of the future - The Guardian - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- End Of Googles Dominance? Stock Gets Rare Analyst Downgrade Over AI Fears - Forbes - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Watch 44 million atoms simulated using AI and a supercomputer - New Scientist - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI Is The New Electricity: Bank Of America Picks 20 Stocks To Cash In On ChatGPT Hype - Forbes - March 2nd, 2023 [March 2nd, 2023]
- Tech Giants Are Barreling Headfirst Into an AI Arms Race - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- Bing's AI Is Threatening Users. That's No Laughing Matter - TIME - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]