open share links close share links
The last 15 years have brought what Stanford University professor Erik Brynjolfsson calls the productivity paradox. While theres been continuing advances in technology, such as artificial intelligence, automation, and teleconferencing tools, the U.S. and other countries have seen flagging productivity.
But a productivity boom is coming soon, Brynjolfsson said at the recent EmTech Next conference hosted by MIT Technology Review. He pointed to advances in technology, particularly artificial intelligence programs that are as good as or better than humans at some things. Businesses should now focus on incorporating the technology into work processes and preparing employees, he said, and policymakers should make sure its adoption doesnt contribute to inequality.
Brynjolfsson has been tracking the lag between introduction of artificial intelligence and corresponding productivity gains. United States productivity grew by about 1.3% in the past decade, he said, compared to more than 2.8% in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This productivity slowdown extends to other countries as well, according to research from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Brynjolfsson predicted a productivity J-curve, in which productivity declines after a technology is introduced and then rises when businesses have been able to integrate technologies into their workflow, a trajectory over time that has a J-shape.
I think were near the bottom of that J-curve right now and were about to see the takeoff, Brynjolfsson said.
Lagging productivity can be explained two main ways, Brynjolfsson said.
Mismeasurement. Productivity is traditionally measured using a countrys gross domestic product, which is based on things that are bought and sold. But many digital goods teleconferencing, smartphone apps, Wikipedia are available for free. Even though people get some benefit from these goods, they dont show up in productivity statistics. The information sectors share of the economy has barely budged since the 1980s, Brynjolfsson noted. I think most of us realize thats just not a real representation of whats going on, he said.
Happiness surveys also fail to capture the complete picture. Brynjolfsson suggested a new metric called GDP-B that would measure the benefit people gain from items. I think its far from perfect, but its a lot more precise than happiness, and I think its a lot more meaningful than GDP, he said.
Implementation and restructuring in businesses. It isnt enough to just add new technology to an organization. Companies need a complete paradigm shift. To get the full benefit, leaders need to rethink business processes, management practices, and employee skills, Brynjolfsson said.
This intangible organizational capital is essential for companies to see benefit from technological advances, but many companies put misplaced focus on technology itself.
The complete reconceptualization of a business process takes a lot. More creativity, effort, and frankly, time, than simply plugging in new technologies into old business processes, he said. We just havent been doing that in most industries.
About a decade ago, machine learning programs had about 70% accuracy, Brynjolfsson said. They have improved rapidly, to the point that they are now better than humans at identifying some things. This makes it more likely that organizations will move to integrate this technology into their business practices as entrepreneurs and managers gravitate toward these often cheaper and more efficient approaches.
We dont need any additional advances in technology to be able to have enormous effects on productivity and wages, he said.What we do need is some significant changes in business processes. We need to rethink the way work gets done.
There are signs more businesses are taking advantage of artificial intelligence programs. The 2021 AI Index report, which Brynjolfsson co-authored, found increases in not just the quality of artificial intelligence, but also business investment in the technology. The biggest increase was in the field of drug discovery and other biological uses of AI, with a 4.5% increase in investment in drug discovery in the last year.
Powerful technology is available, and every organization has an opportunity to benefit from it, he said. Successful firms will be prepared with the skills needed in the future, and leaders should focus on reskilling their workforce.
Replacing labor with capital and human work with technology brings concerns about decreased wages and increased inequality. Brynjolfssons research has documented how machine learning affects different skills and occupations, and found that there isnt one occupation where machine learning could do all the different tasks. While machine learning will likely reorganize work, it wont mean the end of work or entire occupations, he said.
But the effects will likely be uneven. The economic pie could get bigger, but that doesnt mean everyones going to benefit, Brynjolfsson said. Theres been some evidence of this happening, he said, with his research also indicating machine learning is more likely to affect low-wage occupations.
Inequality isnt inevitable, though. Brynjolfsson argued that to a large extent, it is the result of tax and education policies. He suggested three measures that companies, institutions, and policymakers can take to make sure all workers benefit from the productivity boom:
Reskilling the workforce. Taking advantage of AI and other technologies require different sets of skills. Im not just talking about more machine learning experts. Im talking about people who do more creative work, Brynjolfsson said. And while machines are able to do rote, repetitive work, companies will need people who are skilled at interpersonal, emotional connections.
Adjusting tax policy. Capital is taxed at a lower rate than labor, which might push companies to favor technology over workers. Brynjolfsson suggested leveling the playing field, or introducing measures such as earned income tax credits that help subsidize work.
Focusing on technologies that augment workers instead of replace them. Brynjolfsson said he is working on research that shows how technologists are focused on creating programs that replicate human skills. While that may be a fun goal, it actually isnt a particularly good one in terms of helping reduce inequality. It tends to drive down wages, he said. Id rather have them focused on augmenting human labor.
Read the original post:
How to prepare for the AI productivity boom - MIT Sloan News
- Chinese national arrested and charged with stealing AI trade secrets from Google - NPR - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- President Biden Calls for Ban on AI Voice Impersonations During State of the Union - Variety - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Revolutionize Your Business with AWS Generative AI Competency Partners | Amazon Web Services - AWS Blog - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Broadcom Expects AI Demand to Help Offset Weakness Elsewhere - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Micron Hits Record High With Analysts Calling It an 'Under-Appreciated AI Beneficiary' - Investopedia - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- The Adams administration quietly hired its first AI czar. Who is he? - City & State New York - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI likely to increase energy use and accelerate climate misinformation report - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Double, and It Is Way Cheaper Than Nvidia - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Fake images made to show Trump with Black supporters highlight concerns around AI and elections - The Associated Press - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research - Nature.com - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Analysis | House AI task force leaders take long view on regulating the tools - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Don't Give Your Business Data to AI Companies - Dark Reading - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- NIST, the lab at the center of Bidens AI safety push, is decaying - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Essay | AI is Coming! Tips for Staying Calm and Carrying On - The Wall Street Journal - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI can be easily used to make fake election photos - report - BBC.com - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- 5 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Could Make You a Millionaire - Yahoo Finance - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI could be an extraordinary force for good. So why do our politicians still not have a plan? - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Mapping Disease Trajectories from Birth to Death with AI - Neuroscience News - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- India plans 10,000-GPU sovereign AI supercomputer - The Register - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- SAP enhances Datasphere and SAC for AI-driven transformation - CIO - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Jim Cramer names companies and sectors poised to rally on the AI wave - CNBC - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- The job applicants shut out by AI: The interviewer sounded like Siri - The Guardian - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Microsoft confirms Surface and Windows AI event for March 21st - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Adobes new Express app brings Firefly AI tools to iOS and Android - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- A Google AI Watched 30,000 Hours of Video GamesNow It Makes Its Own - Singularity Hub - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Palantir CEO Karp on TITAN, AI Warfare Technology - Bloomberg - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Elliptic Curve Murmurations Found With AI Take Flight - Quanta Magazine - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- 5 AI Stocks to Buy in March 2024, According to Analysts - TipRanks.com - TipRanks - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Wix's new AI chatbot builds websites in seconds based on prompts - The Verge - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- Amid record high energy demand, America is running out of electricity - The Washington Post - March 8th, 2024 [March 8th, 2024]
- AI Crypto Tokens in 5 Minutes: What to Know and Where to Start - Inc. - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- 'The Worlds I See' by AI visionary Fei-Fei Li '99 selected as Princeton Pre-read - Princeton University - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI is having a 1995 moment, analyst says - Business Insider - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Vatican research group's book outlines AI's 'brave new world' - National Catholic Reporter - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Honor's Magic 6 Pro launches internationally with AI-powered eye tracking on the way - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Google explains Gemini's embarrassing AI pictures of diverse Nazis - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Google cut a deal with Reddit for AI training data - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- What's the point of Elon Musk's AI company? - The Verge - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI agents like Rabbit aim to book your vacation and order your Uber - NPR - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Announcing Microsofts open automation framework to red team generative AI Systems - Microsoft - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- After Nvidia's latest blowout, here are 20 AI stocks expected to rise as much as 44% - Yahoo Finance - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- 1 Exceptional AI Chip Stock Investors Need to Know About in 2024 - The Motley Fool - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- Nvidia briefly hits $2 trillion valuation as AI frenzy grips Wall Street - Reuters - February 26th, 2024 [February 26th, 2024]
- AI Chatbots Can Guess Your Personal Information From What You ... - WIRED - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Harvard IT Launches Pilot of AI Sandbox to Enable Walled-Off Use ... - Harvard Crimson - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Advancing policing through AI: Insights from the global law ... - Police News - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Hochul announces new SUNY, IBM investments in AI - Olean Times Herald - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Nvidia's banking on TensorRT to expand its generative AI dominance - The Verge - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI expands from MRFs to vehicles - Plastics Recycling Update - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI Reads Ancient Scroll Charred by Mount Vesuvius in Tech First - Scientific American - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- A DEEPer (squared) dive into AI Harvard Gazette - Harvard Gazette - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Florida bar weighs whether lawyers using AI need client consent - Reuters - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Cognizant and Vianai Systems Announce Strategic Partnership to ... - PR Newswire - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- How AI could speed up scientific discoveries, from proteins to ... - NPR - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- AI challenge to deliver better healthcare | Western Australian ... - Government of Western Australia - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Henry Kissinger: The Path to AI Arms Control - Foreign Affairs Magazine - October 18th, 2023 [October 18th, 2023]
- Stability AI releases StableStudio in latest push for open-source AI - The Verge - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai Predicts That This Profession Will Be ... - The Motley Fool - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Frances privacy watchdog eyes protection against data scraping in AI action plan - TechCrunch - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Investing in Hippocratic AI - Andreessen Horowitz - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- As Alphabet flexes its AI prowess, there's a 'new elephant in the room' for Google - MarketWatch - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Boring Future of Generative AI | WIRED - WIRED - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- OpenAI readies new open-source AI model, The Information reports - Reuters.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- What every CEO should know about generative AI - McKinsey - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI creates images of the 'perfect' man and woman - Sky News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Audit AI search tools now, before they skew research - Nature.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- 3 Reasons C3.ai Stock Could Be Your Golden Ticket to the AI ... - InvestorPlace - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Zoom makes a big bet on AI with investment in Anthropic - VentureBeat - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI voice phone scams are on the rise. Here's how to avoid them - USA TODAY - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Amazon is building an AI-powered conversational experience for ... - The Verge - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI speculators need to 'differentiate between actual spending and investment' and hype: Strategist - Yahoo Finance - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI Can Be Both Accurate and Transparent - HBR.org Daily - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- You're Probably Underestimating AI Chatbots | WIRED - WIRED - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI presents political peril for 2024 with threat to mislead voters - The Associated Press - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- We need AI to help us face the challenges of the future - The Guardian - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- End Of Googles Dominance? Stock Gets Rare Analyst Downgrade Over AI Fears - Forbes - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Watch 44 million atoms simulated using AI and a supercomputer - New Scientist - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- AI Is The New Electricity: Bank Of America Picks 20 Stocks To Cash In On ChatGPT Hype - Forbes - March 2nd, 2023 [March 2nd, 2023]
- Tech Giants Are Barreling Headfirst Into an AI Arms Race - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- Bing's AI Is Threatening Users. That's No Laughing Matter - TIME - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]