Editorial: NPT confab’s role more crucial amid growing nuclear threat – The Mainichi – The Mainichi

As the world faces heightened risks of nuclear weapons being used, the international community is opening discussions on Aug. 1 about how to contain this threat before us.

The 10th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the only comprehensive framework aimed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promoting disarmament, will be held in New York for nearly one month.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) limits possession of nuclear arms to the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France, while requiring those countries to engage in disarmament talks. The NPT review conference is a regular meeting to verify the implementation status of those objectives. Almost all countries and regions in the world get together for the conference.

The confab's focus this time will be on Russia, as it continues its invasion of neighboring Ukraine. The world is keenly aware of the horror of the nuclear threat made by Moscow.

Yet international opinion has been split in two over the issue. The rift between nuclear and non-nuclear states is only deepening, as the former is bent on boosting their nuclear capability to respond to "a nuke with a nuke," while the latter group perceives nuclear arms as "absolute evil" and is pressing for the abolition of nuclear weapons.

The NPT regime is facing this crucial test of whether it can set a common goal toward nuclear abolition.

-- The reality is far from nuclear abolition

The current state of world affairs is far from the NPT regime's ideals. Following the expiration of the bilateral Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the U.S. and Russia resumed their development and deployment of those weapons.

The two superpowers are also deploying low-yield nuclear weapons with less explosive power. Due to their lower hurdles for use, they are called "usable" nuclear arms, making them even more treacherous weapons.

Meanwhile, China has an advantage in the deployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles and has been reinforcing intercontinental ballistic missiles to boost its ability to attack the U.S.

North Korea has been developing sophisticated hypersonic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to vie with the U.S., while Iran is capable of producing nuclear weapons at any time.

Of particular concern is the movements of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has made it clear that it would use nuclear arms in the event its national interests are undermined.

In the face of such serious circumstances, however, the international community is not all unified.

Since the previous NPT review conference was held in 2015, the situation has drastically changed, with the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entering into force in 2021.

The treaty, which places a comprehensive ban on the possession, deployment and use of, as well as the threat to use, nuclear arms, was introduced at the initiative of non-nuclear states after they were exasperated over nuclear powers not fulfilling their disarmament obligations.

Though the treaty's ideals may be lofty, harsh realities lay ahead. No matter how much parties to the treaty call for nuclear abolition, whether it can be made a reality is up to the whims of nuclear powers.

Nuclear nations and their allies have taken the position that it is unrealistic to rush ahead with nuclear weapons abolition. Those countries have one after the other boosted military spending to strengthen deterrence capabilities in the wake of Russia's military aggression in Ukraine.

But if nuclear powers push for a military buildup, it raises the risk of nuclear warfare. If there are more countries trying to rely on nuclear deterrence, nuclear weapons will proliferate across the globe, triggering the NPT regime to fall apart.

What is essential is to draw a blueprint for developing an environment where nuclear powers are discouraged from using nuclear arms, as well as for preventing the spread of such weapons by restricting their development and production, thereby leading to disarmament.

It is necessary for nuclear states to make it clear to non-nuclear states once more that they will not use nuclear weapons. If it is decided that the international community will be united against nations that have used nuclear arms, it could work as acting as a brake on the use of nuclear arms.

-- Fusing deterrence with disarmament

The NPT scheme is based on an "incremental approach" in seeking nuclear weapons abolition in steps, and nuclear powers have supported this method.

Under the initiative, it has been proposed that rules be made to ban all nuclear tests and prohibit the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for weapons use, but all these moves have hit a snag.

While laying out such goals, nuclear powers are also called on to take the initiative in implementing what they can.

It is undeniable that Russia's military invasion in Ukraine has undermined the momentum for nuclear disarmament.

There is a growing sense of distrust between the U.S. and Russia, and it will take yet more time to restart disarmament talks.

Yet disarmament is a responsibility that nuclear powers must fulfill. Their resolve on that must be reconfirmed and concrete action plans presented.

The framework for individual negotiations is not limited to the U.S. and Russia, but the U.S. and China have also agreed to initiate informal consultations themed on nuclear strategy. Even if their talks are not directly linked to disarmament, it would help them build trust if the two countries share mutual information on nuclear arms and enhance transparency on the issue.

Nuclear abolition will not be viable by being exclusively devoted to deterrence or clamoring for disarmament. By linking the two moves together, a road map needs to be drawn from deterrence to disarmament. Whether participants can achieve this will determine the success or failure of the NPT review conference.

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Editorial: NPT confab's role more crucial amid growing nuclear threat - The Mainichi - The Mainichi