At this years Consumer Electronics Show, one of the worlds largest helicopter manufacturers will showcase what a city might look like with high-volume aerial transit options. Bell is showing off a connected city concept with miniature versions of its Nexus air taxi and APT cargo drone flying from building to building, as three layers of software and detect-and-avoid systems ensure their safe arrival.
Onlookers can watch the system of aircraft automatically react to inclement weather and emergency situations as well as request flights via iPads stationed around the stage.
In a few short years, the moonshot concept of flying taxis as an integral part of future cityscapes has become a sober, earnest pursuit attracting billions of dollars in investment from companies across the mobility and transportation space. A futuristic industry once thought to be gated behind decades of steady technological advancementor written off entirelyis now concerned regulators, city planners, and the public wont be able to keep up.
Leonardo da Vinci drew designs for an aerial screw in the 1480s, but practical vertical flight didnt emerge until the middle of the 20th century. The ability to take off and land anywhere felt future-defining. In reality, the high operating costs, annoying rotor noise, and single point of failure innate to helicopters prevented them from becoming affordable and widely-accepted transit options. Helicopter airlines rose and fell during the decades that followed, their fate sealed by rising fuel costs and a few high-profile accidents.
Todays electric and hybrid-electric air taxi designs, made possible by continuous improvements in power storage density, electric propulsion, promise to solve the fundamental problems presented by helicopters. In addition to dramatically lower fuel costs offered by electric and hybrid vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (known as eVTOLs for short), electric motors are simpler and cheaper to maintain than turbine engines. Distributed electric propulsionleveraging anywhere from four to dozens of separately-powered rotorsmay reduce the vehicles total noise output and eliminate safety concerns associated with a single main rotor (though batteries have their own significant safety challenges).
Great advancements are also underway in the realm of automation, with pilots representing both one of the largest fixed expenses in helicopter operation and pilot error one of the most common causes of fatal accidents. LA-based startup Skyryse recently demonstrated a commercial helicopter modified to fly completely autonomously, a system they hope will allow newly-certified pilots to deliver a flight experience and safety record that rivals commercial airlines.
Theres a reason why people with means travel via helicopter and private airplanes: Its much faster than taking the increasingly congested streets below, though limited by available landing locations. Comparing a 300-mile car trip to an airplane flight, the skies are clearly the way to gobut for a 20-mile trip across town, as urban air mobility hopes to offer, theres much less time to save.
But what if the proposed route contains a geographic obstacle that prevents quick travel on the ground, such as Vancouver Harbouror traffic conditions as bad as Mumbai, So Paulo, or Los Angeles? Blade Air Mobility, which currently offers service in New York City from a helipad in Lower Manhattan to JFK airport (and many other destinations), charges $200 for a five-minute helicopter ride over the East River that takes more than an hour via taxi or public transit.
Of course, the Blade experienceor Uber Copter, which offers a similar servicedoesnt take five minutes door-to-door, especially if ones final destination isnt a helipad or an airport. Once ground transit to and from the helicopter and waiting for departure are included, journalists from the New York Post found Ubers service was three minutes slower than public transportation.
The money-for-time value proposition of urban air mobility will depend on reducing the time spent traveling to and from air transit nodes and increasing passenger throughput. Commercial air transportation is often disconnected from other forms of urban transit; airports almost always lie beyond city limitsoutside the reach of complicated zoning and airspace restrictions.
Urban air mobility will have to be properly integrated into existing and future metro, bus, and other transit options for the full-trip time savings of taking to the air to be realized. Many cities also do not currently have enough helipads to build a useful network of destinations, a challenge which infrastructure investment and real estate development firms are beginning to tackle.
In addition to creating time savings, the consumer cost of 3D urban transit must come down if it is to become a market worthy of the trillion-dollar expected valuations its been given by analysts.
Blade, Uber, and Vooma subsidiary of aerospace giant Airbushave reduced the cost of on-demand helicopter transit substantially, from thousands per trip to roughly $200 through tech, data, and ridesharing. Electric vehicles, and eventually autonomy, promise to bring this cost down further, but will that be enough to present a cost-viable alternative to cars and public transit?
Its also a moving cost target that urban air mobility is trying to hit, as auto manufacturers and tech companies invest billions into autonomous driving capabilities, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing capabilitiesall of which threaten to reduce the cost and friction of car-based transportation, which has the tremendous physics advantage of not having to overcome gravity. Uber revolutionized the on-demand car experience in ways unimaginable 10 years ago. What will air taxis be up against by the time theyre certified and ready for prime time?
Its hard to understate how revolutionary the targeted scale of urban air mobility is for the aerospace industry writ large.
On average, in the US, there are nearly three million people flying through the sky every day, sipping on ginger ale and apple juice, facing an incredible rate of just 0.2 deaths per ten billion passenger miles for commercial air travel750 times safer than driving. While an astounding accomplishment of steady industry progress, the 5,000 airplanes flying across US airspace simultaneously at peak operational times hardly compare to the 1.4 billion estimated cars on the road worldwide. Meeting that bar with tens of thousands of low-altitude vehicles crisscrossing the sky will require precise and instantaneous air traffic control systems without a human in the loopa 180-degree departure from the human-centric system in place today.
For urban air mobility to succeed, the aerospace industry will have to safely manufacture, operate, and maintain aircraft at a scale never before imagined while meeting the publics astoundingly high expectations for air safety. Its unsurprising that many leading eVTOL aircraft developers have taken strategic investment from leading auto manufacturers including Daimler, Hyundai, and Toyotacompanies which have experience manufacturing by the million, rather than the hundred, and are angling to stay relevant in a world that has likely reached peak internal combustion engine.
There are many, many reasons to doubt the urban air mobility industry will take off or reach the scale and unit economics its greatest advocates promise. Even if the aircraft, airspace, and regulatory challenges are solved, urban air mobility may have little to offer over existing transportation without proper integration, and city planners are already making critical decisions for 2030.
The World Economic Forum recently partnered on an industry study with the city of Los Angelesone of three cities Uber aims to launch commercial air taxi service in by 2023 through its Elevate ecosystembut educating and convincing cities, with constituents who may be skeptical of spending taxpayer infrastructure dollars on flying cars, will be an uphill challenge. A single high-profile accident could set urban air mobility back years, especially as the public struggles to process the industry-wide safety failure that was the Boeing 737 MAX.
Right now, over two hundred electric and hybrid aircraft projects are under development, though most industry observers guesstimate that somewhere between two and five will succeed in producing an FAA-certified aircraft capable of carrying multiple passengers. The urban air mobility world is likely experiencing an investment bubble, still full of insane promises, newcomers to aerospacethe best way to make a million bucks in aerospace is to start with a billionand outright grifters.
Whats next for those building the flying car future?
A wave of bankruptcy, consolidation, and lowered expectations may be imminent. But after that course correction, cities around the world might see electric on-demand air taxis in their skyline, sooner than one may thinkand if were lucky, they might actually be affordable.
Brian Garrett-Glaser is assistant editor for Avionics International. He is the author of The Skyport, a free bi-weekly newsletter covering the rise of drones and air taxis.
Banner Image: Bells latest air taxi concept, the Bell Nexus 4EX, draws on tiltrotor technology the company developed for the V-22 Osprey military aircraft. Its intended for inner-city or suburb-to-city travel. Image Credit: Bell
See original here:
What Needs to Happen to Get to the Flying Car Future - Singularity Hub
- Singularity Future Technology Ltd (SGLY) is up 43.55% Tuesday In Premarket Trading - InvestorsObserver - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- This Week's Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through March 16) - Singularity Hub - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Palia reaches over 3m players in six months thanks to "invaluable" Switch partnership - GamesIndustry.biz - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Beyond the Singularity: Exploring the Fusion of AI and Art - Hong Kong Standard - March 18th, 2024 [March 18th, 2024]
- Your Comprehensive Guide to Telos Staking Success | by Pizza Singularity Sapphire | Feb, 2024 - Medium - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- BTS' Kim Taehyung's 'Singularity' Performance Featured in Harvard Professor's Book - BNN Breaking - February 20th, 2024 [February 20th, 2024]
- Title: Understanding the Singularity: Unveiling the Future of Humanity - Medium - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- What happens at the center of a black hole? - Astronomy Magazine - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- IBM Is Planning to Build Its First Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer by 2029 - Singularity Hub - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- 22 Laws of Singularity And How You Can Apply Them To Live A Better Life - Medium - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Singularity: Here's When Humanity Will Reach It, New Data Shows - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- sentinelOne expands singularity marketplace with new SOAR, insider threat, training, and prioritization integrations - ZAWYA - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Reaching the Singularity May be Humanitys Greatest and Last ... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Singularity: Explain It to Me Like I'm 5-Years-Old - Futurism - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- SINGULARITY FUTURE TECHNOLOGY LTD. : Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing, Change in... - March 4th, 2023 [March 4th, 2023]
- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak on Artificial Intelligence: Not worried about The Singularity, well still be in control - MacDailyNews - February 12th, 2023 [February 12th, 2023]
- Cauchy principal value - Wikipedia - January 4th, 2023 [January 4th, 2023]
- Singularity Future Technology Ltd. (SGLY) Stockholder Notice: Robbins LLP Reminds Investors of the Class Action Against Singularity Future Technology... - December 14th, 2022 [December 14th, 2022]
- ROSEN, A LEADING LAW FIRM, Encourages Singularity Future Technology Ltd. f/k/a Sino-Global Shipping America Ltd. Investors to Secure Counsel Before... - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- Singularity (mathematics) - Wikipedia - November 23rd, 2022 [November 23rd, 2022]
- GitHub: Where the world builds software GitHub - November 21st, 2022 [November 21st, 2022]
- Review: The Singularities, by John Banville - The New York Times - October 25th, 2022 [October 25th, 2022]
- We need to manage AI better as we are approaching the Creative Singularity - RedShark News - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- This Week's Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through October 15) - Singularity Hub - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Ferguson: A second helping of QB play from Thanksgiving weekend - CFL.ca - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Kanimozhi slams Union govt over conducting CGL exams in only Hindi and English - The News Minute - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- New Bayonetta 3 Trailer Reveals An In-Universe Singularity, And Lots Of Witches - Gameranx - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Singularity Future Technology Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice of Delisting and Intention to Request Hearing - Yahoo Finance - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Six Recent Discoveries That Have Changed How We Think About Human Origins - Singularity Hub - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- This AI Uses a Scan of Your Retina to Predict Your Risk of Heart Disease - Singularity Hub - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- The Moon May Have Formed Just Hours After Earth Collided With a Protoplanet - Singularity Hub - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- UK HealthCare hosting 2 nationally esteemed guests for 60th anniversary symposium - UKNow - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Why Transcend Fund believes the opportunity for game investments is only getting bigger - VentureBeat - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Austin Powers References in This Fool, Ramy, Bros - Vulture - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Bayonetta 3 Everything You Need to Know About this Bewitching Beat em Up - Wccftech - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Longtermism: The Future Is VastWhat Does This Mean for Our Own Life? - Singularity Hub - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Ohio creates elections integrity office while voter fraud is already 'exceedingly rare' - ideastream - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Elon Musk Warns of World War III - TheStreet - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Durga reminds us of our collective obligations - Daily Pioneer - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- Glitch in the algorithm - The Bucknellian - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- As the Robot Fry Cook Takes Over the Kitchen - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence - October 8th, 2022 [October 8th, 2022]
- The Singularity Image Format (SIF) Selected as a Finalist in the HPCwire Readers' Choice Awards - PR Web - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Singularity Image Format (SIF) Selected as a Finalist in the HPCwire Readers' Choice Awards - Benzinga - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Singularity of the Dual Mandate - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- What Is the Quirk Singularity Doomsday Theory in My Hero Academia? Explained - Twinfinite - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Introduction to week 4 of Tekedia Mini-MBA: Exponential Technologies and Singularity - Tekedia - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- A $500 Million International Project Will Create the Most Detailed Map of the Brain Ever - Singularity Hub - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- There Are Cheaper, More Sustainable Ways Than Desalination to Meet Our Water Needs - Singularity Hub - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- #3DStartup: Unlimited Tomorrow and its 3D Printed Bionic Prosthetic Arm - 3Dnatives - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- First As Parody, Then As Free Speech: The Onion Goes To The Supreme Court. It's About As Awesome As You'd Suspect. - Above the Law - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- 10 Hot Cyber Threat Intelligence Tools And Services In 2022 - CRN - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Nintendo comes out strong with its offering of upcoming titles - The UML Connector - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The metaverses evolutionary roots could aid its success | Mint - Mint - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Tech That Will Push VR to the Limits of the Human Eye - Singularity Hub - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Super-Earths Are Bigger and More Habitable Than Earth, and Astronomers Are Discovering More of the Billions They Think Are Out There - Singularity Hub - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Scientists Have Long Dreamed of a Memory Prosthesis. The First Human Trials Look Promising - Singularity Hub - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- NASA's DART Spacecraft Will Smack an Asteroid at 14,000 MPH Todayand You Can Watch - Singularity Hub - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Why You Should Read This: 'The Gold Coast' - Alta Magazine - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- The Multitude of Stromae - Mail and Guardian - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine is Getting a Location-based VR Experience Next Year - Road to VR - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- What the pandemic taught us about teaching (On the Other Hand) - Montclair Local - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Where to get the Boom Sniper in Fortnite Chapter 3 Season 4 - The Nerd Stash - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Machine learning has predicted the winners of the Worlds - CyclingTips - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Vaonis Vespera Review: Easy To Use But with Underwhelming Results - PetaPixel - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- The biggest problem with gravity and quantum physics - Big Think - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- V gets inked on his butt cheek? BTS star spills the details about his friendship tattoo - Zoom TV - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Robots & Humans: Are we heading towards Singularity? - INDIAai - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- This Week's Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through September 17) - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- A Swedish Company Wants to Transform Offshore Wind With Vertical-Axis Turbines - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Decarbonizing the Energy Sector by 2050 Could Save the World $12 Trillion - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- This Sleek Solar Car Goes 600 Miles on a Charge and Is Gearing Up for Production - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Meta Built an AI That Can Guess the Words You're Hearing by Decoding Your Brainwaves - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Gory Throwback FPS 'Prodeus' Exits Early Access This Thursday, Launching for PC and Consoles [Trailer] - Bloody Disgusting - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Meet the New Vespera Telescope From Vaonis - Universe Today - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Of God and Machines - The Atlantic - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Humans Destroyed Forests for Thousands of Years. We Can Become the First Generation to Expand Them - Singularity Hub - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- Intel Core i9-13900K beats the 12900K by +10% in CPU-bound games - KitGuru - September 20th, 2022 [September 20th, 2022]
- INVESTIGATION ALERT: The Schall Law Firm Encourages Investors in Singularity Future Technology Ltd. with Losses of $100000 to Contact the Firm -... - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- How To Open Singularity Rock in Tower of Fantasy - Attack of the Fanboy - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Intel i9-13900K Tested in Ashes Of The Singularity, Offers Neglible Increments in Performance - Appuals - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]