The Davos consensus on the presidential election
Publicly, the global business leaders who gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, havent wanted to predict the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The closest theyve come? Referring to it as a geopolitical risk.
But talk to executives privately, and theyre more explicit: They expect Donald Trump to win and while many are worried about that, they are also resigned to it.
The predictions of a Trump victory came in different forms. Many pointed to the headlines and the mood in the U.S. One senior banker told DealBook that you only had to look at the polls to figure out that Trump was on track to win.
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase also got a lot of attention for his comments. In an interview with Andrew on CNBC, he didnt predict that Trump would win, but suggested that dismissing the former president and his supporters would be a mistake.
Just take a step back and be honest, Dimon said, listing the things that he thought Trump got at least partially right: NATO, immigration, the economy, China and more. He wasnt wrong about some of these critical issues, and thats why theyre voting for him, he said.
I think this negative talk about MAGA will hurt [President] Bidens campaign, he added.
That said, the Davos crowd often gets things wrong. A common critique of those who attend the forum is that they are a contra-indicator of whats to come, so their expectations could bode well for Biden or for Trumps Republican rivals. Trump is already the president at Davos which is a good thing because the Davos consensus is usually wrong, Alex Soros, the son of George Soros, said on a panel.
A little history: The Davos consensus was that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. And in 2020, the prevailing view was that there were few risks to the economy as the pandemic began to explode.
Seen and heard:
Perhaps the biggest complaint among attendees was about the long lines everywhere, especially at the Grandhotel Belvdre. Many complained that the process of entering the building with wait times sometimes reaching an hour was worse than ever and it didnt matter whether you were a business titan or a less famous guest. One executive complained to DealBook that the security was more restrictive than at U.S. airports because he had to take off his Apple Watch every time. At previous gatherings, executives wanted a room at the Belvdre because the hotel was considered the best in town and was closest to the main venue but many told DealBook that they no longer do.
Despite the rigid class system people are assigned different colored badges that grant various levels of access the event has odd ways of leveling the playing field, at least a little. At last nights Salesforce party, the hottest ticket of the week, even billionaires had to wait outside with everyone else to get in to watch Sting perform.
Congress approved a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown. President Biden is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday to keep the federal government operating through to early March. Its the third such stopgap bill since October.
Jamie Dimon gets a big bump in pay. JPMorgan Chases board granted its C.E.O. $36 million in compensation for 2023, a year in which the bank weathered a banking crisis and rising interest rates, and generated record profit. The 67-year-old, the longest tenured chief of a large American bank, has not given any indication on when he might retire.
Reddit reportedly considers a March public listing. The social media platform is said to be moving forward with a long-held plan to file for an I.P.O. in the first quarter, according to Reuters. The market for new listings has been a bumpy one and the outlook looks little improved this year.
Macys will cut thousands of jobs. The countrys biggest department store operator will lay off 2,350 employees, about 3.5 percent of the work force. The cuts come as Tony Spring, a veteran retail executive, prepares to take over as C.E.O. next month. Macys has been struggling with slowing sales since the pandemic-inspired shop-from-home boom shook up the retail sector.
BYD doubles down on overseas expansion. The Warren Buffett-backed Chinese maker of electric vehicles plans to invest $1.3 billion in a new Indonesian factory as it continues its aggressive push beyond its home market. Indonesia is home to the worlds largest reserves of nickel, a crucial mineral in production of E.V.s.
The money flowing out of E.S.G. funds has gone from a trickle to a torrent as investors sour on a sector hit by greenwashing concerns, red-state boycotts and boardroom debates.
The investing strategy has become increasingly politicized after being used by companies to address environmental, social, and governance issues among their employees, customers and other stakeholders. In a sign of the times, the phrase has been scrubbed from the World Economic Forums official program in Davos, after being on the agenda in previous years.
Investors pulled $5 billion out of E.S.G.-focused sustainable investment funds last quarter, according to a new report by Morningstar. The withdrawals occurred despite a wider market rally at the end of 2023.
Read more:
The Davos Consensus: Donald Trump Will Win Re-Election - The New York Times
- 'Donald Trump Did This': How to Beat MAGA on Border Security - The Bulwark - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Potential Trump running mate JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. have become so close that they text or talk on a 'nearly ... - Business Insider - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump Second Term: How the World and U.S. Allies Can Prepare for the Election - Foreign Policy - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Poll: Biden and Trump supporters sharply divided by the media they consume - NBC News - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Master Calendar of Trump Court Dates: Criminal and Civil Cases - Just Security - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's Sleepy, Sleazy Criminal Trial - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump, GOP seize on campus protests to depict chaos under Biden - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- UK briefing: How Donald Trump plans to survive hush money trial with his campaign intact newsletter - The Guardian - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Opinion | We Are Talking About the Manhattan Case Against Trump All Wrong - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Election 2024: Biden jokes, Trump still leads and updates from the Sunday shows. - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Pans White House Correspondents' Dinner: 'Colin Jost BOMBED' - The Daily Beast - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump's Trial Could Bring a Rarity: Consequences for His Words - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Bemoans Really Bad WHCD, Biden & Colin Jost After All Mock Much Indicted Ex-POTUS - Deadline - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court's epic failure in dealing with Trump's cases - The Hill - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump: In America's most important swing state, a key Biden group wants to hand the presidency to Trump. - Slate - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Is Being Ritually Humiliated in Court - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in new national poll on 2024 election - USA TODAY - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Amid Cases on Abortion and Trump, Roberts Reflects on Supreme Court's Work - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Is Used to the Finer Things in Life. At the Courthouse, 'He's Miserable.' - The Wall Street Journal - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- How Trumps Rhetoric at Rallies Has Escalated - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court Appears Poised to Protect the Presidencyand Donald Trump - The New Yorker - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court seems divided over Donald Trump's immunity - The Economist - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- John Dean Says 1 Thing 'Keeping Me On The Edge Of My Seat' In Trump Trial - Yahoo! Voices - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Five Moments That Have Defined Donald Trump's Trial So Far - The New York Times - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- How Trumps trial is playing, politically - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Opinion | The Ukraine aid vote helps, but U.S. allies complacency would be unwise - The Washington Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Hey, SCOTUS your hypocrisy is showing - The Hill - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Bill Barr Is Happy to Debase Himself for Donald Trump Again Mother Jones - Mother Jones - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Supreme Court is likely to place Donald Trump above the law in its immunity case - Vox.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- RFK is openly gunning for Trump voters now and Republicans are starting to worry - Salon - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Trump Pushes Immigration Conspiracy Theories and Mass Deportations - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley makes surprise appearance on SNL, mocking Donald Trump and Joe Biden - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump feud with UAW reaches fever pitch - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tightens his grip on GOP, bolsters ties with Mike Johnson - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- 1/31/24 - 2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll ... - Quinnipiac University Poll - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Here's how 2 sentences in the Constitution rose from obscurity to ensnare Donald Trump - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump floats tariff of more than 60% on imports from China and denies it would start a trade war - Fortune - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Jeffries on House Republicans: Wholly owned subsidiaries of Donald Trump - The Hill - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Ex-DOJ Official Says He's 'Now At The Freakout Stage' Over 1 Donald Trump Case - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley to GOP: Let's wait to see if Donald Trump is convicted - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Why Supreme Court appeal will be no 'open mic night' for Donald Trump - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley hits Donald Trump during 'SNL' sketch ahead of SC primary - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's legal fees are draining his campaign funds - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Mentions These Names When Asked About Vice Presidential Picks - NDTV - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump's lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks - The Economist - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Tory rising star described Donald Trump as 'refreshing' - The Independent - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Joe Biden v Donald Trump - where contest will be won and lost - BBC.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's fed trial on election interference postponed from March - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Inside Trump's growing influence over congressional Republicans - POLITICO - POLITICO - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Federal judge postpones Trump's March 4 election interference trial - NPR - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says He Would Not Reappoint Powell as Fed Chair if Elected - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- I Prosecuted Donald Trump and Won. Here's How It's Done. - The Daily Beast - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Loses London Case Against Ex-MI6 Spy Over Kremlin Dossier - Bloomberg - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- After Speedy Start, Appeals Court Slows Down on Trump Immunity Decision - The New York Times - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump and UAW President Shawn Fain exchange barbs: 'Get rid of this dope' - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Donald Trump dispels rumors that he reached out to RFK Jr for VP: Never happened - Fox News - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- How Donald Trump Got Disqualified From The Ballot And His Entire Candidacy Wound Up Before The Supreme Court - HuffPost - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Trump Says Nikki Haley Is Unlikely to Be His Running Mate - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Goes From Calm To Indignant In Newly Released Deposition Video Of Civil Fraud Lawsuit - HuffPost - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump: Haley 'probably ... is not going to be chosen as the vice president' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump returns to New Hampshire as primary nears - The Washington Post - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Boris Johnson: Trump's return could be 'big win for the world' - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Zelenskyy invites Trump to Kyiv POLITICO - POLITICO Europe - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- 'New Hampshire Is Close to a Make-or-Break for Keeping the Nomination Out of Donald Trump's Hands.' - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Trump's pitch in New Hampshire is more about Nikki Haley as he hopes for big win - NPR - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's tax cuts would add to American growthand debt - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump's populism is turning off corporate donors - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why DeSantis Says Trump's Romp in Iowa Is Actually a Sign of His Weakness - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump's VP Pick - POLITICO - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- There is still a way to stop Donald Trump but time is running out - The Guardian - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Maine Secretary of State to Appeal Ruling on Her Decision to Exclude Trump From Ballot - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Vice President Harris says she's 'scared as heck' that Donald Trump could win - The Associated Press - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- What is the point of coming second to Donald Trump? - The Economist - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Thousands Sign Christian Petition Urging Bishops Not to Back Donald Trump - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Why Donald Trump Is Facing E. Jean Carroll in Court a Second Time - The New York Times - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Claims He Will Never Allow Creation of CBDC in the US if Reelected - Yahoo Finance - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Keller @ Large: What Donald Trump's win in Iowa means for the presidential race - CBS Boston - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump tries to twist felony charges, lawsuits after Iowa win - USA TODAY - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Donald Trump Just Incriminated Himself on Truth Social: Legal Analyst - Newsweek - January 20th, 2024 [January 20th, 2024]
- Putin 'Actively Hoping' to Get Donald Trump Back as President: Ret. General - Newsweek - December 31st, 2023 [December 31st, 2023]