Press play to listen to this article
Voiced by artificial intelligence.
BELFAST Jeffrey Donaldson is a man under pressure.
The choice the Democratic Unionist Partys leader makes in the coming weeks will determine whether Northern Ireland regains the cross-community government at the heart of its peace process or falls deeper into a Brexit-fueled crisis that may last another year or more.
Senior figures in the British government and all five of Northern Irelands main political parties have told POLITICO that October looms as the make-or-break month for reviving power-sharing at Stormont, the Greek neoclassical parliament building that overlooks Belfast.
The introduction of long-awaited post-Brexit trade measures next month offers what may be the final political opportunity for Donaldson to break the deadlock before the election cycles of 2024 kick in.
When you get into the new year you are heading towards a general election, warned Chris Heaton-Harris, the U.K. governments Northern Ireland secretary, speaking at an investment conference in Belfast this week.
On October 1, the first phase of the Windsor Framework [post-Brexit agreement] comes in and we will see a big difference in how trade flows, and indeed how goods come into this country.
In normal times, Stormont is home to the Northern Ireland Assembly and a multi-party executive tasked with governing the divided U.K. region. But little has been normal since the Brexit vote of 2016, which shattered the careful balance of interests fundamental to Northern Irelands 1998 peace agreement.
Two U.K.-EU deals designed to avoid post-Brexit checks on goods crossing the land border between the north and the Republic of Ireland have satisfied Irish nationalist and middle-ground parties but so displeased Donaldsons DUP that it gridlocked the assembly in May 2022 and collapsed the executive in October.
Under prevailing rules, the Stormont system cannot function without the DUP, the main pro-British party in Northern Ireland. Donaldson insists this veto is the only leverage he has and he wont permit power-sharing to be restored unless the U.K. government gives him what he wants.
What precisely Donaldson wants is somewhat opaque, however.
In February, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak finally unveiled his painstakingly negotiated Windsor Framework, an agreement with the EU designed to satisfy the DUP and break the Stormont deadlock by reducing and simplifying though not eliminating checks and restrictions on goods being shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland, the only U.K. region still required to maintain EU goods standards after Brexit.
Since then, Donaldson has spent six months to-ing and fro-ing with Downing Street and the U.K.s Northern Ireland Office over his demands for further unspecified concessions.
Were waiting on the last bit of information from the DUP about what they want, said Steve Baker, Heaton-Harris Northern Ireland Office deputy. When we get it, we will strain every sinew to give it to them, because we want them back.
Broadly, Donaldson wants even greater limits on the Brussels bureaucracy being planned at Northern Irish ports. He also wants symbolic and legal reassurances for unionists, who fear that the new trade regime will encourage local businesses to deal increasingly with Irish firms rather than British ones and lead, over time, to a united Ireland.
Heaton-Harris and Baker insist the deal on the table is the best the DUP will get. They hope unionists will be reassured by the low levels of checks being rolled out at Northern Irish ports next month, and say its now up to Donaldson to accept a further as yet unpublished package of concessions being offered behind the scenes.
Baker urged Donaldson to face down hard-line critics both within his party and on social media and radio shows who insist there can be no compromise.
He said Donaldson appeared constrained by a small number of really important opinion-formers who shape what the DUP does. Without naming them, Baker said these extremists were steering the life of Northern Ireland to a degree that is not really consistent with their status as unelected figures.
Donaldson rejects the U.K. governments portrayal of his position and their bilateral negotiations, insisting talks could continue indefinitely. There isnt a deadline here, he said.
But leaders of the other parties in Northern Irelands mothballed government told POLITICO that the DUPs response to the forthcoming Windsor Framework-related legislation, once published, will be crucial.
This is expected to happen by the first week of October, just before the DUPs annual conference on October 13-14, when Donaldson will face pressure either to accept a return to Stormont or confirm the party is staying out.
Doug Beattie, leader of the smaller moderate Ulster Unionist Party, said hes confident that Donaldson is about go back in, using the imminent U.K. legislative package as a fig leaf.
In the next week to 10 days we need to see the enabling legislation for the Windsor Framework, Beattie said, forecasting that the British government also would publish secondary bills strengthening the role of checks-free green lanes at Northern Irish ports and reasserting the constitutional position of Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom.
Then its for the DUP to make a decision whether thats enough for them to get back into the Stormont arena. The Windsor Framework is going to be implemented regardless, Beattie said.
This cant drag on beyond October, because then youre moving into the realms of a Westminster election.
If the DUP dont go back into Stormont next month, they wont be in until after May, Beattie said. And after May, with the likelihood of a new British government, the process starts all over again. It could be October, the end of the year, or even the following year. It would be a crazy road to take, which is why I dont believe Jeffrey will take it.
Other leaders arent so sure, in part because they see the DUP as internally split and Donaldsons position within his party as too weak. But they agree that, if the DUP doesnt shift position soon, Stormont faces a likely continued shutdown throughout 2024.
Jeffrey will have to eventually face down his critics. I just hope that he has the drive and the determination to do that, and to do it pretty quickly, said Naomi Long, who leads the Alliance Party, which represents middle-ground opinion between the British unionist and Irish nationalist camps.
If we dont get back this side of Christmas, its very hard to see how there will be another opportunity to come back to the table in the next year or so, Long said. We could be into a very prolonged hiatus, and that would be incredibly damaging to our public services, our public finances, and public confidence in our institutions. Were running out of road.
Read more:
Make-or-break moment looms for Northern Ireland's failed government - POLITICO Europe
- Its clearer than ever that Brexit has failed lets not inflict its miseries on young people - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'I might as well stop and diversify into holiday lets' new research reveals the reality of farming after Brexit - The Conversation - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- French bank to close dozens of Britons' accounts citing Brexit - The Connexion - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK-US trade deal 'could be easier' with Donald Trump in the White House, says Lord Frost - Express - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Labour's Brexit conundrum - The Week - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit UK Risks Being 'Left Out In The Cold' As EU Coordinates Action On Shortages - Pink Sheet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brussels wants post-Brexit talks with UK on new youth mobility rights - POLITICO Europe - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Ravaged by austerity, chastened by Brexit: how can Britain have influence abroad when its broken at home? - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UK - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit, austerity and how Labour could fix Britain - Tortoise - Tortoise Media - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- NYSE considers 24/7 trading; Goldman Sachs moves senior banker to Paris amid post-Brexit overhaul - The Banker - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU Delighted by Prospect of UK Labour Reneging on Brexit - The European Conservative - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Reverse the Brexit fiasco! - Workers' Liberty - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The writing is on the wall Starmer and Brussels will undo Brexit - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK to delay start of health and safety checks on EU imports report - The Guardian - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Journalist Asks David Cameron Outright If Rwanda Bill Is A Consequence Of Brexit - HuffPost UK - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 'We retired to Spain after Brexit and it's much cheaper - the UK seems miserable' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU would rather destroy the planet than let Brexit succeed - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- War heroes and Brexit: Why Greeks will always love the British - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- WATCH: Castletownbere fishermen to feature in documentary on impact of Brexit | Southern Star - The Southern Star - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Britons told their French bank accounts 'are being closed due to Brexit' - inews - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Post-Brexit border controls delayed again in the UK - hortidaily.com - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- UK rejects mobility agreement with Europe to help young people travel and live abroad - The Independent - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- EU proposing post-Brexit joint youth work and study scheme with UK - Sky News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Brexit border checks will start from 30 April - Fruitnet - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Lord of the Rings star Dominic Monaghan says 'Brexit was a con' and urges others to take action - Manchester Evening News - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The EU has finally admitted it needs Britain more than we need it - The Telegraph - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- The Brexit revelations: May's no-deal, a Canada plan and mating porcupines - The Times - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Italian citizens bank accounts frozen owing to shameful post-Brexit rules - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Policy. UK hails financial access deal with Switzerland after Brexit losses - Euronews - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit: How the NI Protocol became the Windsor Framework - BBC.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- EU Approves Three-Year Delay to Post-Brexit Tariffs on EVs - OilPrice.com - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Travel chaos is 'only going to get worse' when new EU fingerprint checks come in - NationalWorld - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- British exporters call on government to ease post-Brexit trade frictions with EU - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brits visiting Europe will have to give fingerprints under new rules - Metro.co.uk - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Ursula von der Leyen humiliated as UK forced major EU climbdown in Brexit car victory - Express - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Modern slavery a feature of care sector in England since Brexit - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- US president Joe Biden ditches trade deal talks with Britain over fears of job losses - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit inflation: The role of trade policy uncertainty in increasing UK import prices - CEPR - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK and EU Reach Accord on Post-Brexit Electric Car Tariff Postponement - IndiaTimes - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- How are Brexit travel restrictions easing outbound and inbound? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Jeremy Hunt to strike post-Brexit banking deal with Switzerland - Yahoo Finance UK - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Britain was right to Brexit | MoneyWeek - MoneyWeek - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit pain could be eased for Brits with homes in France - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- DUP talks about post-Brexit trading have ended, Northern Ireland secretary says - The Guardian - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Have voters cooled on the prospect of re-joining the EU? - UK in a Changing Europe - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Brexit will really start to bite us in 2024. How ready are you? - The Independent - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- UK ditches company working time rules in further post-Brexit red tape cuts - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Sovereignty, economy, immigration: still the three pillars of the Brexit ... - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Just because Brexit isnt on the frontpages, doesnt mean its settled - UK in a Changing Europe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Post-Brexit EU clearing rules set for more relaxed approach - International Financing Review - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- There's trouble in store for post-Brexit Britain - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- SMEs feel the squeeze from Brexit - Financial Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Three years of polling on the Protocol reveals the depth of the new ... - Newswise - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- James O'Brien on post-Brexit Britain: 'This conflation of patriotism ... - The Irish Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- What's really behind GB News signing Boris as the voice of Brexit ... - Prospect Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Revealed: How Brexit and the Covid hangover are affecting the ... - Car Dealer Magazine - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Grayson Perry's portrait from the edge - The New European - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Bankers bonuses are back and the long 2010s dominated by Brexit ... - City A.M. - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Ports and truckers clash over post-Brexit border costs - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- What would the UK look like without Brexit? - The New Statesman - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- The long road of Brexit: A shifting regulatory reality - New Food - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Barry Jones The Voice is our Brexit moment - The Saturday Paper - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo Movies UK - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- It's not just the 'Remainers' whingeing Britain really is broken - The Australian Financial Review - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- UK SMEs not ready for 'avalanche' of Brexit 2.0 rules and taxes - Financial Times - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Brexit Bitterness Continues To Cloud Reporting The European Conservative - The European Conservative - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Green Brexit doesn't extend to pesticide protections - Footprint - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Theresa May says her Brexit deal was better than Boris Johnson's - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Remainer UK civil servants were in tears over Brexit, top official says - POLITICO Europe - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- Mark Carney Has Delivered A Stunning Takedown Of Brexit And Liz Truss - Yahoo News Canada - September 17th, 2023 [September 17th, 2023]
- More Brits than ever say Brexit was wrong choice: YouGov survey - Reuters UK - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Britain's fishing industry in line for post-Brexit boost following the end of EU red tape - Daily Mail - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Tabloids are misleading their readers over Brexit at their own peril - The Media Leader - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- UK Support to Rejoin the EU Passes 50% for the First Time Since Brexit - Yahoo News - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Record Numbers of Brits Regretting Brexit, Survey Shows - SchengenVisaInfo.com - SchengenVisaInfo.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Almost two-thirds of Brits think Brexit has been a failure - The New European - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Five ways UK fashion industry can grow post-Brexit, Covid - just-style.com - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- British companies start to grapple with 'Brexit 2.0' - Financial Times - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Ex-Bank of England governor describes handling of Brexit as a shambles - Euronews - June 16th, 2023 [June 16th, 2023]