Monthly Archives: February 2024

Democrats on Wednesday sought to capitalize on a decisive election victory in New York, with party leaders freshly emboldened to challenge Republicans on immigration and reinforce their focus on abortion and MAGA extremism, as they forge a blueprint to overcome President Bidens low approval ratings this fall.

Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election for Congress in suburban New York on Tuesday, where he campaigned as a practical problem solver who would work with Republicans and said his party hadnt been tough enough on the southern border. His victory over GOP challenger Mazi Pilip flipped a seat once held by the disgraced George Santos and was the latest in a string of electoral wins for Democrats since they outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms.

Party leaders received more good news in a special election for a vacant state House seat in suburban Philadelphia. Democrat Jim Prokopiak blew out his Republican opponent, Candace Cabanas, by 35 percentage points in an area where party turnout is seen as key to determining presidential outcomes in battleground Pennsylvania.

The results provided some relief for Democrats reeling from a difficult stretch that included a new round of public polls showing that voters have acute concerns about Bidens age and the job he is doing, as well as a special counsel report that offered an unflattering view of the presidents mental acuity. Many in the party cheered the results Tuesday Suozzi was ahead of Pilip by about eight points, with some votes still being tallied and pointed to them as a road map for navigating a challenging electoral landscape.

One key takeaway that Suozzi demonstrated is that you dont run away from a contentious issue. You lean into it, and then you double down and triple down on it. And thats exactly what he did on the issue of border security. He refused to allow the Republicans to define him on the issue, said Steve Israel, a former congressman from New York who used to head the House Democratic campaign arm. The fundamental lesson of the special election: Suozzi showed Democrats how you can meet voters where they are.

But the run-up to November, when Biden and former president Donald Trump are on course for a rematch and the balance of power in Congress is up for grabs, is strewn with obstacles for the party, some strategists and nonpartisan analysts said. Suozzis win doesnt eliminate long-term concerns about Bidens age. And a key part of Suozzis strategy involved distancing himself from the president and the national Democratic brand.

I do think it shows that suburban voters value competence, and Suozzi was the candidate they knew better and trusted to come up with solutions even as Bidens approval ratings are upside down virtually everywhere on the migrant crisis, said David Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The challenge for Biden is that voters dont see him as competent.

Republicans publicly downplayed the significance of the special election result, even as some in the GOP worried that Trump and the farthest-right figures in their party hurt them in the suburbs. They said the overall dynamics will become more favorable to them in the general election, with Trump turning out the partys less-engaged voters and Biden playing a larger role in the public conversation.

GOP leaders argued that Suozzi, who previously held the seat for three terms, was a uniquely strong candidate against Pilip, relatively a political newcomer. They predicted Democrats would fare worse in competitive races once Biden is at the top of the ticket.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) dismissed Suozzis win, saying he overcame the immigration issue by campaigning like a Republican. That is in no way a bellwether of whats going to happen this fall, he told reporters. (Johnson had said in a Jan. 18 fundraising email that the future of our Republican Majority could rest on this races outcome.)

But Democrats rallied around Suozzis model, especially his posture on immigration, which polls show is one of Democrats toughest issues. Republicans believed border security would be their winning issue at a time when New York is facing a massive influx of migrants. They had pointed to January polling showing that voters trusted Trump over Biden on the issue by more than 30 points.

With immigration at the forefront of New York voters minds, Suozzi called for stronger security at the border but also maintained support for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. He also pointed to House Republicans refusal to take up a bipartisan border security bill, arguing that GOP lawmakers werent serious about finding a solution.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) sent a memo to his Senate Democratic colleagues calling Suozzis win a road map for Democrats because he turned what could have been a devastating political liability into an advantage. Other Democrats voiced a similar sentiment.

Jon Reinish, a New York Democratic strategist, said that the party has long tried to ignore contentious issues such as immigration and crime and that he hoped Suozzis embrace could break this sort of stale stalemate thinking in Washington that has in many ways paralyzed the party and denied them a lot of wins, and a lot of public approval.

And I hope the Biden campaign sees that too, he said.

Biden has led a shift in the party toward a more combative approach against Republicans on immigration, blaming Trump and his allies for sinking the border security package on Capitol Hill. White House spokesman Andrew Bates renewed that criticism Wednesday, saying in a statement that the New York election was a devastating repudiation of congressional Republicans.

Bidens campaign noted that Republicans put millions behind commercials mentioning Biden in the New York special election and lost. Biden congratulated Suozzi even though the Democrat publicly questioned whether the president will be the nominee during an interview on Good Day New York the day before the election.

Suozzis record on immigration put him in a strong position to hit back on that issue and dispute Republicans portrayal of him as an open-border radical. GOP ads played nonstop a clip of the Democratic candidate saying he kicked ICE out of Nassau County, but Suozzi hit back with his own ads showcasing footage of him defending ICE on Fox News introduced by a host as one of the few Democrats who voted to support this vital agency.

Republicans said Wednesday that many others in Suozzis party will not have the same advantage, particularly as they face pressure from some on the left to adopt a more welcoming stance toward undocumented immigrants.

How many Democrats have the will, capacity and body of work to effectively paint themselves as Republican on immigration? asked Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the biggest independent advertiser for Republican House campaigns. This is clearly a potent issue.

Early Republican polling found that the initial immigration attacks on Suozzi had caused severe damage to his support in the district, forcing millions in Democratic defensive spending.

Suozzis campaign spent more than $4 million on ads, compared with $361,114 for Pilip, who also joined forces with the National Republican Congressional Committee to buy additional ads, according to AdImpact. In total, Democrats swamped Republican spending in the race, putting in $14.1 million compared with Republicans $8.3 million. Because candidates get more airtime for the dollars, the spread in the number of ads was even greater.

Pilip, a little-known county legislator, was much more guarded than Suozzi on the trail and a notably less confident public speaker. Criticizing Democrats border policies at one of her relatively few news conferences, Pilip spoke for just a few minutes and looked down at her notes. She also struggled to raise money, a perennial issue for Republican House candidates.

Trump lambasted her on social media late Tuesday after her loss, calling her a very foolish woman who didnt endorse him. Pilip had tiptoed around Trump, declining to say whether she voted for him in 2020 until later acknowledging that she had playing into Democrats argument that she was an unknown quantity in a district burned by Santos, a Republican.

Democrats hammered Pilip on abortion suggesting she was beholden to an antiabortion party, even as she said she opposed a national ban and tied her to the MAGA brand, which many Republicans believe has cost them in the suburbs. In Pennsylvania, Prokopiak used similar attacks against his Republican opponent, labeling her a MAGA extremist, referring to an acronym for Trumps Make America Great Again campaign slogan.

Attacks on Republican-led restrictions on abortion rights and threats to democracy have helped lead Democrats to victories in elections, including the Kentucky governors race last fall. Democratic-aligned activists also have had success focusing attention on abortion, waging successful campaigns on ballot initiatives in conservative states such as Kansas and Ohio.

Republicans acknowledge that they have a problem turning out their voters in special elections but suggested that the disadvantage would dissipate in the November general election. Republican strategist John Feehery, a former top staffer for GOP leaders in the House, said Tuesdays outcome underscored Republicans need to improve their turnout in lower-profile elections as well as to recruit stronger candidates, not just banking on moving personal stories.

What the Republicans have to understand is they are not the high-propensity party anymore, he said.

Azi Paybarah and Marianna Sotomayor contributed to this report.

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Democrats see 2024 blueprint in N.Y. election that centered on immigration - The Washington Post

In the heart of Long Island, where Republicans have won every major election in the last three years, Tom Suozzi fought through ripping political headwinds to claim victory on Tuesday in a special House election, seizing a coveted swing district that had been held by George Santos.

Mr. Suozzis eight-point win flipped one of the five House seats Democrats need to retake the majority in November, giving the party a badly needed shot of optimism. But his campaign also provided something that may prove more valuable, a playbook for candidates across the country competing on turf where President Biden and his party remain deeply unpopular.

The strategy went something like this: Challenge Republicans on issues that they usually monopolize, like crime, taxes and, above all, immigration. Flash an independent streak. And fire up the Democratic base with attacks in this case, nearly $10 million in ads on the abortion issue and former President Donald J. Trump, the likely Republican nominee for the White House.

Its a very interesting lesson to Democrats that you can escape your opponents attacks on immigration by not only leaning into the issue, but doubling down on it, said Steve Israel, a former congressman from the district who once led the House Democrats campaign arm.

Instead of trying to pivot around the issue, he charged into it, Mr. Israel added.

One of the most vivid examples came in the races final weeks. Mr. Suozzi was on his way to a meeting one morning and learned that his Republican opponent, Mazi Pilip, was about to hold an event at a Queens migrant shelter blaming him for the nations growing border crisis.

The issue had all the makings of a political storm for the party in power one that other Democrats might have written off as a lost cause. But Mr. Suozzi redirected his car through choked traffic, pulled up just in time to follow Ms. Pilip in front of TV news cameras and threw himself squarely into the fray.

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Leaning Into Migrant Woes, Suozzi Paves Election-Year Path for Democrats - The New York Times

Democrat Tom Suozzi, pictured during a campaign event on Sunday, has won the race to replace expelled Congressman George Santos in New York's third congressional district. Mary Altaffer/AP hide caption

Democrat Tom Suozzi, pictured during a campaign event on Sunday, has won the race to replace expelled Congressman George Santos in New York's third congressional district.

Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the New York special election to the U.S. House, according to an AP race call. Suozzi will serve out the remainder of the term for former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House last year.

The victory further narrows the already razor-thin majority for Republicans in the House. The race was seen as a test of Democrats' ability to overcome attacks over President Biden's handling of the U.S. border with Mexico and convince voters that Republicans are unable to legislate in Washington.

Immigration politics dominated the contest in a congressional district that sits thousands of miles from the U.S. border with Mexico. The race was between Suozzi, who served three terms in the House, and Nassau County Republican legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip.

Suozzi celebrate his victory Tuesday night, telling supporters in Woodbury, NY that his campaign centered on immigration and the economy, and a message of binding divisions between the parties.

"It's time to move beyond petty partisan bickering and the finger pointing. It's time to focus on how to solve the problems," Suozzi said.

Pilip told supporters she called Suozzi to concede and left open the possibility of running again this fall when the term vacated by George Santos expires.

Pilip said "we are going to continue to fight" but did not elaborate further.

Both parties were closely watching the race as a chance test their message ahead of the upcoming election in November.

The district has swung significantly in recent elections. President Biden won there in 2020, but the GOP victory in the 2022 contest in the district, along with others in the New York suburbs, helped them flip control of the House in 2022. Criticism of Democrats' handling of crime drove independents to back GOP candidates.

Candidates and outside groups spent over $20 million in ads and "get out the vote" operations on the election. This time the partisan fight over immigration could be a precursor for the 2024 fight for the White House and the House.

Democrats celebrated the victory as a sign that voters in key swing and suburban districts are unhappy with GOP politics in Washington.

House Majority PAC, one of the major fundraising arms for House Democrats, released a statement Tuesday night implying the victory in New York was a referendum on House GOP politics more generally.

"House Republicans have shown how out of touch they are with Americans across the country, and their deeply unpopular extremist policies will ensure their losses at the ballot box," the group wrote. "House Majority PAC looks forward to taking back the House in November."

It may be a stretch to label it a bellwether for how other competitive races could turn in the fall. But the race is seen as a test of Democrats' efforts to try to flip the script on the issue of border security, an issue traditionally pushed by GOP candidates, is effective with suburban voters.

But GOP Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C, the head of the House GOP's campaign arm, downplayed Suozzi's win, calling the race "an uphill battle" in a seat Biden won in 2020.

"Democrats outspent Republicans two-to-one, and our Democrat opponent spent decades representing these New Yorkers - yet it was still a dogfight," Hudson said in a statement. "Republicans still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November."

The chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Suzan DelBene said voters chose "chose experienced leadership over extremism. Tom Suozzi ran a formidable campaign that prioritized the issues that matter most to families across Queens and Nassau County: protecting reproductive freedom, bipartisan solutions to address border security, and lowering costs."

In the days before polls closed, supporters of both candidates said a major influx of migrants into New York City is seriously impacting the district, which stretches from parts of working and middle class neighborhoods in Queens to wealthy suburbs in Nassau County, Long Island.

"Immigration is a problem, obviously, because we see it every day. So huge issue right now. And not only that, the immigration is also taking work from our union members as well. So that hurts our pockets as well," said Joseph Karrass, a union volunteer for the Suozzi campaign in Queens.

Louis Mayr, a retired New York City policeman, voted early for Pilip in Plainview, N.Y., and said about the impact of the crisis at the border, "it's getting out of control. Most of us feel that. I mean, we feel specifically that the the southern border is crazy and we'd like to see some kind of control there."

In the weeks leading up to the election, Suozzi focused his pitch on fixing the broken immigration system. He says he already has a record from his last term in Congress including his membership in the "problem solver's caucus" a group dedicated to working across the aisle.

In an interview with NPR during a final-push campaign swing in Plainview, N.Y., Suozzi said he backs a bipartisan immigration proposal that was recently released in the Senate. That bill was derailed by Republicans on Capitol Hill last week. Suozzi said voters want someone who is focused on solutions and sidestepped questions about whether Biden's handling of the border could be a liability for his campaign.

"I wish the president had done something in August," he said. "But it is what it is. And now we just have to keep on moving forward to get it done."

Suozzi criticized his opponent, Pilip, for opposing the bill without specifics about what she should do to solve the problem.

Congressional candidate for New York's 3rd District Mazi Melesa Pilip campaigns on Feb. 7 in the Queens borough of New York City. P Adam Gray/Getty Images hide caption

Pilip, who is a registered Democrat, was elected as a Republican to the county legislature in 2021. She was tapped by county Republicans after Santos was expelled and pledges she will change her voter registration. After avoiding questions about whether she voted for Donald Trump, Pilip recently told the New York Post she voted for him in both 2016 and 2020.

Her campaign focused heavily on blaming Suozzi for the record number of migrants entering the southwest border and the impact the broken immigration system is having in New York. She paints him as part of the Washington establishment.

"What Tom Suozzi and Biden did they totally opened the border. Millions make the way. We don't know if they are criminals. We don't know if they are terrorists. We don't know who they are here," Pilip charged in the one debate between the candidates last week.

In that appearance, and in campaign ads, she also stressed her personal story as an Ethiopian who emigrated to Israel and served in the Israeli defense forces.

In the days leading up to the election, Pilip made few public campaign appearances. Her campaign did not respond to multiple requests from NPR for an interview.

Other New York Republicans lawmakers, including GOP conference Chair Elise Stefanik, stumped for Pilip in Franklin Square in Nassau County. And National Republican organizations and major GOP-funded super PACs are blanketing the airwaves on her behalf.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main political arm of House GOP leaders, spent more than $4 million on the race. The group's investments included a widely circulated television ad saying, "Tom Suozzi helped create our immigration crisis in Congress. He'll make it worse."

The ads funded by national GOP groups also prominently feature President Biden's image, but Suozzi doesn't talk about him, and told CNN the focus was on local issues and he didn't want the president campaigning for him.

Both campaigns focused on getting supporters to vote early, and a forecast for significant snow on Tuesday could impact turnout.

Talking to reporters in the Bayside neighborhood of Queens, Suozzi deflected questions about Biden's age, and the report from special counsel Robert Hur that raised concerns about the president's memory.

"I know he's an elderly man. I'm not concerned about his mental acuity, but I know he's an old guy. He's 81 years old. That's a fact," Suozzi said.

As a former congressman aiming to regain a seat in Washington, Souzzi is not shy about saying his party has lost ground in the district in recent years, telling NPR, "We've been losing everything local races, state races, the federal race."

He's working to link Pilip to Santos, who was expelled after a House ethics investigation found he violated House rules and his campaign spent on personal expenses like Botox and an Only Fans account. Santos is also facing 23 felony criminal charges.

"The bottom line is that my opponent Mazi Pilip is George Santos 2.0," Suozzi told campaign volunteers at an event to boost turnout in Plainview.

Pilip and her GOP allies, on the ground and in paid campaign ads, link Suozzi to Biden, and to progressive Democrats in the House, often nicknamed "the Squad."

Suozzi, who was a member of the moderate "New Democrat" coalition, rejects that comparison, and repeatedly stresses his support for Israel, another major factor in this district with a high percentage of Jewish voters.

"For you to suggest that I'm a member of the squad is about as believable as you being a member of George Santos's volleyball team," Suozzi said to Pilip during last week's debate.

Democrats also tried to make reproductive rights an issue in this race. Pilip, a mother of seven, says she's personally pro-life, but declared in the debate last week, "some things I will support, I'm not going to support a national abortion ban."

But Pilip has been endorsed by the conservative party, which is pushing a nationwide ban on abortion.

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Democrat Suozzi wins special election to replace Santos in New York - NPR

The release of the commissions maps will not be the final step in the process. The lines would still need to be approved by the Democratic-dominated state Legislature. Legislators had not seen the maps or begun to discuss them yet, but several members believe they have a shot at winning approval after a laborious process in 2022 that led a court master to draw the states 26 House districts.

The most significant change, according to the state officials briefed on the plans, would be to the Central New York district held by freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams.

Democrats attempted to draw that as a solidly blue seat two years ago, joining Syracuse with college towns that included Ithaca, Cortland and Auburn. But after the lines were scrapped by the courts, the new maps merged Syracuse with more moderate communities like Utica, creating a swing district that Williams won by only 2 percentage points.

The lines that are currently expected would be somewhere in between these two plans Auburn, but not Ithaca, is likely to join Syracuse. That would allow for a 4-point shift toward Democrats, according to the officials.

Further east, the borders between the swing seats held by freshmen Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro are also expected to shift. The changes might include moving the Hudson Valleys Columbia County from Molinaros district to Ryans and Orange County from Ryans to Molinaros.

Those tweaks would result in modest boosts for both incumbents tradeoffs that would help Democrats solidify Ryan and boost their chances of beating Williams, but also make it harder to knock off Molinaro who is in a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley.

Other than that, officials familiar with the lines, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the lines havent been released, said they do not expect any significant changes in the rest of the state.

That would mean that freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawlers swing district in the Hudson Valley would not see the shift toward Democrats that the party had hoped for.

And Long Island where Republicans won each of the four seats in 2022 but Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election on Tuesday would stay mainly unchanged.

Commissioners of both parties said earlier this week that they were hopeful for a two-way deal at the meeting Thursday afternoon.

A bipartisan agreement would bolster the standing of the new commission that flopped in its first attempt at drawing lines two years ago, reduce the chances of another lengthy court fight and prevent a delay in the June primaries which were pushed to August in 2022 because of the legal battles.

The states top court in December ordered a new set of lines for this year and the remainder of the 10-year cycle because of the failure of the commission to follow its rules.

Once the commission approves the lines, they would need to be approved by both houses of the state Legislature. Democrats have narrow supermajorities in each of them.

Its really a question for all 150 of us, said Assemblymember Ken Zebrowski, who leads Democrats redistricting efforts in his 150-seat chamber. I think everybody will be looking for fairness. Hopefully everybodys version of fairness isnt different from each others.

There has been a general sense in recent weeks that legislators are eager to put the years of legal drama over redistricting to a close, and they might be willing to sign off on maps even if theyre not as aggressively gerrymandered in districts like Lawlers as some national Democrats would like.

One unknown has been whether specific members would be pressured by national leaders to reject any bipartisan lines in favor of a more Democratic-friendly map. But there are few signs they have felt that pressure yet.

And Suozzis victory limits the urgency to reshape his Long Island district winning the special election boosts his chances of keeping the seat in November when there is higher turnout in a presidential year in heavily blue New York.

Tom Suozzi won a race on the map that is currently in place, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in Washington on Wednesday morning. And were preparing to win the races that we need to win on the map that is currently in place.

Democratic state Sen. John Mannion, who has a vote on the lines, is running in a Democratic primary for Williams seat. Asked about the possible changes earlier in the week, he said he was fine with whatever happens.

Im advocating for Central New York already, he said. So wherever the lines are, Ill be proud to run in that district because I believe we have a lot of shared interests in whatever directions the maps go.

One remaining unknown is just when the Legislature will finalize the lines, and there is some urgency. Members arent scheduled to hold session again until Monday, Feb. 27 which is the day that congressional candidates are due to start collection petitions, potentially creating some logistical headaches.

Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said earlier this week that she was open to calling a special session next week. But the Assembly has not yet had those discussions, and members think its highly unlikely there will be an early return.

If Democrats unite behind the lines, then Republican votes wont be needed. But two top Republicans said on Wednesday that they would be content with the lines that they expect to be approved by the commission.

So theres a chance that after years of bitter legislative and legal battles over the maps, the whole process just might wrap up in a moment of bipartisan unity.

It can and it should, and I hope it does, said Sen. Jack Martins, who led the Republicans on the redistricting commission two years ago. Because I think the integrity of the process is only bettered by both sides showing they can work together.

Nick Reisman and Jeff Coltin contributed to this report.

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New House lines in New York would boost 2 Democrats and a Republican - POLITICO

The special election was a nail-biter heading into Tuesday, underscoring just how much the district has shifted to the right since Suozzi was last elected in 2020.

The results allow Democrats to claim momentum in a crucial election year when control of the House and the presidency are on the ballot. The race featured themes Republicans have centered in their 2024 campaigns, including immigration and crime.

Suozzi campaigned on a platform of compromise and common-sense governance assailing both Republicans and members of his own party who refuse to work together during an era of hyper-partisanship.

Its time to move beyond the petty, partisan bickering and the finger-pointing. Its time to focus on how to solve the problems, he told a jubilant crowd Tuesday night at the Crest Hollow Country Club.

The diverse group of supporters in attendance included younger organizers who knocked on doors in Queens, where voters turned out big for Suozzi and gave him an early lead. A cheer went up for labor unions when the candidate expressed gratitude from the stage.

Thank God, Suozzi said at the top of his remarks, taking a moment to soak in his victory.

Despite all the attacks, despite all the lies about Tom Suozzi and the squad, about Tom Suozzi being the godfather of the migrant crisis, about sanctuary Suozzi, despite the vaunted Nassau County Republican machine, we won, he said. We, you won this race because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions.

Suozzis remarks were briefly interpreted by pro-Palestinian protesters, one of whom shouted, You support genocide.

Solidarity with Israel amid the Israel-Hamas war played a role in the race. Both Pilip and Suozzi are staunch supporters of Israel, with Suozzi saying he wants no conditions on U.S. aid to the Jewish state.

Suozzi also positioned himself as an ardent endorser of the bipartisan Senate border bill, knocking Pilip and Republicans who called it a nonstarter as being beholden to former President Donald Trump and prioritizing political gain over the countrys best interests.

Suozzis victory means Democrats have flipped the swing seat held until last December by Santos, a Republican who was expelled from Congress amid being criminally indicted on fraud charges. And it puts to rest for now anxieties the party had that President Joe Biden, who remains unpopular in the area, would be a drag on his party down ballot.

The 3rd Congressional District in Nassau County and Queens is one of about six New York House seats expected to be determined by close margins this year a tally that stands to determine which party controls the House in 2025. Though Biden won the district by 8 points in 2020, a Newsday/Siena College poll last Thursday showed Trump was now leading Biden by five points there. The district may be redrawn in the coming days by a commission tasked with designing congressional district lines in New York.

A potential rematch or at least another close race between Democrats and Republicans looms for this seat in November. Even though Suozzi is a centrist and oftentimes conservative Democrat, he remains a Democrat, a brand toxic in some corners of Long Island where the well-tuned Nassau County Republican apparatus has flipped several local seats over the years.

Suozzis apparent defeat of Pilip came after the Democrats spent big on the airwaves, his campaign outraising hers by millions. Suozzi may have had the benefit of a bigger campaign war chest and name recognition after 30 years serving the area in elected office, but Pilip and the Republicans had the advantage of staking out a hardline position on border security.

The Nassau County legislator held very few news conferences during her campaign, but hosted two outside the sprawling Creedmoor Psychiatric Center migrant shelter in Queens to denounce Democratic policies that she said encourage illegal immigration.

We did a great job. We are the fighters, Pilip said at her party in East Meadow, just outside the district. Yes we lost. But it doesnt mean were going to end here.

It wasnt clear if shell be the partys nominee again in November. Well have to wait and see, Nassau County Republican Chair Joe Cairo told POLITICO after Pilips brief concession speech.

Republican Reps. Anthony DEsposito, Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino and former Rep. Peter King joined Pilip on stage. Her fellow Long Islanders have been a constant presence on the campaign trail, often speaking at events more than the candidate herself.

While border politics and support for Israel were prevailing themes in the race, preserving abortion access and restoring the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, were other key issues.

Pilip is an enrolled Democrat but she campaigned in the special election with the full backing of Long Island Republicans. DEsposito, as an example, was omnipresent at Pilips events.

By contrast, Suozzi ran without party leaders like Gov. Kathy Hochul or New York City Mayor Eric Adams by his side.

He had taken care to distance himself from Biden, who came last week to New York City for three fundraisers but did not campaign for Suozzi.

In the final stretch of the race, after saying no one is above the law in a PIX11 interview, Pilip appealed to Trump during a CNN interview for help in her campaign. Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson visited the district for a fundraiser and rally centered in their 2024 campaigns, including immigration and crime.

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Democrats win back George Santos seat in hotly contested election - POLITICO

In the end, it wasn't particularly close: Democrat Tom Suozzi defeated Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip 54%-46% in the hotly contested Long Island special election to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos. Now, the House is closer than ever: the flip puts Democrats at 213 seats to Republicans' 219, with one Democratic and two GOP vacancies. That means Democrats only need to net four more seats in November to retake the majority.

The outcome fits a pattern of Democrats excelling in recent special and low-turnout elections. About 175,000 voters appear to have cast ballots in NY-03 only about 64% of the total that showed up in 2022 and 44% of the total that showed up in 2020. Amid a snowy Election Day nor'easter, one GOP Super PAC even hired snowplows to roam Nassau County's reddest precincts while Democrats had banked a large mail and early vote lead.

But Suozzi's margin was convincing enough that it can't be explained by turnout alone. Voters were simply more comfortable with Suozzi than Pilip, and it's doubtful a fuller turnout would have reversed the

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NY-03 Special: Four Takeaways from Suozzi and Democrats' Decisive Win - The Cook Political Report

The first major congressional race of the 2024 cycle was decided on New Yorks Long Island Tuesday night, with Democrat Tom Suozzi flipping the seat once held by disgraced Republican George Santos.

In some sense, this congressional district, New Yorks 3rd, was a true bellwether; its an actual toss-up swing district, and this victory for Democrats will narrow the slim Republican House majority even further. But the temptation to nationalize the outcome here is a misleading one. Suozzis triumph, while great for Democrats, has little to say about Bidens fate; Pilips victory would have said little about Trump. The race did show us, however, just how much money and effort will be necessary to win toss-up districts in 2024and on a more local level, how far national Democrats are going to have to go to make up for the ineptitude of New Yorks state Democratic Party.

From the outside, this race should have been a slam-dunk. Running to replace Santos, who became one of just six representatives ever to be expelled from Congressand just the third since the Civil Warmade for a dream opportunity for Democrats.

Republicans, already wounded by their affiliation with the serial fabulist and accused campaign finance fraudster par excellence, chose a somewhat Santos-like candidate: Ethiopian-born Israeli Mazi Pilip, a young, not-entirely-vetted politician of color with a penchant for exaggeration. Pilip claimed to have been a paratrooper for the Israel Defense Forces. It turns out she did weapons maintenance for a paratroopers brigade and never faced combat, one of a handful of glaring holes in her record.

And yet, up until election day, polling showed a race so tight it was within the margin of error. This, despite massive name recognition advantage for the Democratic candidate, Suozzi, who has already represented this district in Congress and who had a 2-to-1 spending advantage to boot. Good thing for Democrats that a rare election day snowstorm broke in their favor!

The New York State Democratic Party had a lot to prove. Its poor showing in a blue state during the 2022 midterms cost the House a national Democratic majority. Democrats lost this seat to Santos after Suozzi left Congress to try his hand at the New York governors race, challenging center-right gubernatorial candidate Kathy Hochul from the center right. Once Suozzi buried the hatchet with Hochul and promised to be less anti-choicehis record on abortion has been mixed, to put it charitablyhe could return to his district. There was no primary: New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs hand-picked him.

A right-leaning Democratic congressman with a record of warring with Democrats and siding with Republicans, Suozzi is an exemplar of Jacobs Long Island Strategy: running the most conservative possible Democrats in Long Island districts and hoping to fool conservative voters by using their very same slogans.

Its a mixed strategy, at best. Suozzi positioned himself as tough on crime, anti-immigrant, and pro-tax cuts. His foils were the progressive members of the Squad; he trumpeted his bona fides as an unrivaled devotee of the Republican-funded Israel lobby. Suozzi is one of the co-founders of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a group stood up by the Republican-aligned No Labels, which has sabotaged Biden repeatedly through three years of his presidency. (One of Suozzis closing messages to the campaign was the stunning and arguably racist assessment that if Pilip were to win, were gonna end up with more migrants coming to New York; and on top of that, theyre gonna have access to AR-15s.)

He won, yes. But more broadly, Republicans have gored Democrats down-ballot in Long Island. And the key to this race was the money. Democrats spent nearly $14 million, almost double the GOPs $8 million investment in the race. According to AdImpact, the total ad spend for just this Long Island district totaled an eyewatering $21.4 million. Thats more than quadruple the outlay of the 2022 race that yielded Santos.

Plus, Democrats of all stripes rallied around to cinch this win. Progressive grassroots groups were campaigning on Suozzis behalf, despite their major policy disagreements with the candidate; Suozzis campaign, meanwhile, was accessible and played nice with them. National groups spent exorbitantly. The only group that seemed lax about flipping the district back was the state and local Democratic Party: According to Rachel Klein, founder of Engage Long Island, a local progressive grassroots organization, the state party repeatedly spurned her groups volunteer efforts to get Suozzi across the finish line.

We have been working so hard. Weve never worked this hard for a single campaign in this concentrated amount of time, Klein said via phone call before the race on Tuesday. But the state party doesnt reach out to us or try at all to bring us in. Its not okay.

So while the New York state Republican apparatus was humming, the New York state Democratic machine was, once again, leaving something to be desired. Jacobs Republican equivalent, Joseph G. Cairo Jr., who hand-picked Pilip, campaigned heavily, serving as her chief strategist, fund-raiser and surrogate, according to the New York Timeseven traveling to Washington to wring more support out of national Republicans, to complement the on-the-ground blitz.

Jacobs will claim this as a win for his dubious, do-nothing strategy, but the real triumph belongs to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who put up the cash, showed up in the district, and helped build an infrastructure to work around the New York Dems.

Waiting for the national party to airdrop a spending advantage of millions of dollars is not a sustainable way to win elections. The difficulty of this win and the price tag show the cost of the New York State Democratic Partys refusal to reconcile with the failures of the party apparatus after the 2022 midterms. This district will also have to go back to the polls for this same race in November. How many millions will that cost?

It could be a problem for Biden too. He may be old. He may be unpopular. But New York Democrats are a millstone around his neck, not the other way around.This should not be a close race, said Klein, the progressive organizer, on election day. It makes me very nervous for November.

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New York special election results: The Democrats flipped George Santos' old seat. But here's the real story. - Slate