Monthly Archives: August 2022

1. Democrats Sense a Shift in the Political Winds, but It May Not Be Enough  The New York Times
2. Democrats use abortion to blunt the GOP's midterm advantage  Axios
3. Analysis | Democrats show momentum coming out of special elections  The Washington Post
4. Turnout surge powered Democrats' N.Y. special election win and their renewed hopes for November  POLITICO
5. Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats  FiveThirtyEight
6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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Democrats Sense a Shift in the Political Winds, but It May Not Be Enough - The New York Times

Here are five takeaways from a key primary night in Florida and New York:

It would have been easy to write Nebraska off as a fluke, after Democrats ran better than expected in a House race there last month. But then came Minnesota, where Democrats again beat expectations. And then, in New York on Tuesday, the dam broke.

Well, shit, one Republican strategist texted late Tuesday, as results from a Hudson Valley special election filtered in.

It would have been a victory for Democrats if theyd even kept it close. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, but that would have appeared to favor Republicans in a normal midterm climate.

Overall, on the last major primary night of the year, the winds appeared to be shifting in Democrats favor.

It can be tempting to read too much into special elections. Theyre not always predictive of results in the fall, and Republicans this year have overperformed in some places, too. In June, the GOP won a South Texas House seat that had been held by a Democrat.

But that was before Roe shook the political landscape. Ever since, its been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats while still widely expected to lose the House in November might not be in for the all-out drubbing once predicted.

The New York race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in a New York House district is likely a better indicator than the House races in Minnesota or Nebraska. For one thing, its the most current data we have. But more than that, its a competitive district where both parties spent real money and tested their general election messaging abortion for Democrats, the economy for Republicans. It was about as close to a November test run as were going to get.

This is a Republican versus a Democrat. Theyre not crazy. No ones off the wall, said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York. Thats why its a good test.

Democrats passed and then some.

If Pat Ryan out-and-out wins, or even comes within 5 points of beating Molinaro, all projections of a red wave are completely overblown, said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). This race is really a canary in a coal mine.

In a midterm cycle dominated by Donald Trump, it was a House race in Florida on Tuesday that laid bare more clearly than anywhere just how much Republicans are willing to stomach in their service to the former president and his fiercest allies.

Not even a federal investigation into whether Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) had sex with a 17-year-old girl and paid her for it (Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing) was enough to dent his MAGA celebrity. Not even close.

Gaetz, a Trump favorite, beat his closest opponent by more than 40 percentage points.

With the primaries all but finished now, Trumps midterm record is not without blemishes. There was his humiliation in Georgia in May. His preferred candidates lost gubernatorial races in Idaho and Nebraska. And in New Hampshire, Trump-world failed to find any prominent Republican to run against the incumbent governor, Chris Sununu. Sununu, who called Trump fucking crazy at the roast-style Gridiron Club dinner this year, is likely to easily win re-nomination in his primary next month.

But for the most part from J.D. Vances victory in the Ohio Senate primary in May to Rep. Liz Cheneys (R-Wyo.) ouster in Wyoming last week the midterms belonged to the former president.

Gaetz was the icing on the cake.

In general, probably the former president has maybe even a better win-loss record than some people would have expected, said Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who worked on George W. Bushs 2004 campaign.

If Trump-ism is ever going to flush its way through the Republican Party, he said, the lesson of this years primaries is that its going to take more than one election cycle.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

DeSantis also backed Florida Senate candidate Blaise Ingoglia and Jonathan Martin, both Republicans. The impact of the governors endorsement was felt long before Election Day because it cleared a potentially crowded field in both races.

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. Its part of his broader agenda to reshape Floridas education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

Florida Republicans, with DeSantis taking the lead, have poured thousands of dollars into school board races this election cycle, elevating those generally sleepy races into top midterm targets for the GOP, and putting at times surprised Democrats on underfunded defense.

Defense contractor Cory Mills boasted that he would make the media shed real tears after news accounts reported on how his company sold tear gas used on Black Lives Matters demonstrators. Mills has also questioned the legitimacy of President Joe Bidens win in 2020.

Anna Paulina Luna, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, alleged last year that a handful of her rivals were engaged in a conspiracy to kill her.

Both are poised to join the Republican caucus in Congress after winning their respective primaries for Floridas 7th and Floridas 13th congressional districts. The contests in both races were noisy, bitter and expensive.

The GOP candidates are likely to win in November because the districts were reshaped to favor Republican candidates under a controversial new congressional map championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Currently Republicans hold a 16-11 edge in Floridas congressional delegation. After adding one seat due to population growth, the new map is projected to give the GOP a 20-8 margin in the next session of Congress.

The result was that Republicans vying for the new seats shifted even further to the right.

It didnt work for all candidates. Laura Loomer, a far-right activist who has been kicked off social media platforms for anti-Islamic posts, came close to knocking off longtime GOP incumbent Rep. Dan Webster. But Webster buoyed by votes in his home county managed to beat her by a few thousand votes in the race for Floridas 11th congressional district. Another candidate Martin Hyde said FBI agents would have wound up in a body bag if they had searched his home like they did Mar-a-Lago. But longtime incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan soundly thrashed Hyde in the GOP primary for Floridas 16th congressional district.

Everything we know about the overturning of Roe v. Wade is that it will likely be a major motivator for Democrats in the fall.

What abortion does not appear to be given Nikki Frieds wipeout in the Florida gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night is singularly determinative.

Fried, the state agriculture commissioner once heavily promoted as the future of the Democratic Party in the state had spent much of the primary campaign casting her opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), as at best untrustworthy on the issue. Crist, a former Republican governor of the state before morphing into an independent and, eventually, a Democrat, said during his U.S. Senate run in 2010 that he would advocate for pro-life legislative efforts.

Even days before this years primary, when asked if he was pro-life, Crist responded, Im for life, arent you? before adding, Ive been pro-choice in every single decision Ive made that affects a womens right to choose.

So, whats more important to Democrats than Roe?

Electability, it seems.

I think the litmus test question in this race is who is the candidate who can best defeat DeSantis, which is a strategic question that I think most Democratic voters are applying, said Fernand Amandi, a veteran Democratic pollster and consultant in Florida.

Crist is widely considered an extreme longshot in the general election against DeSantis, even among Democrats.

But paradoxically, while Crist needed to survive the politics of abortion to win on Tuesday, its that same thing that he will need to be competitive at all in November.

If not for Roe, Amandi said, Im not certain that the Democrat would have a chance.

The rest is here:

Democrats gain momentum: 5 takeaways from the last big primary night of 2022 - POLITICO

When I asked Skye Perryman, the president of Democracy Forward, about the resonance of democracy in the midterms, she mentioned health care, the minimum wage, education, the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and economic unrest all as issues of concern to voters.

What we see every day is people deeply concerned about democracy and about the broader promise of democracy what are their wages going to be, what is their economic opportunity going to be, can they educate their kids, are they going to be able to raise their kids in safe communities? These are broader democracy issues, she said. There is a movement that is seeking to eradicate and undermine the very foundation of our democracy But that same movement is also engaged in a range of conduct that is harmful to people and communities, and that is a democracy issue, too.

Democratic messaging about democracy itself may pick up once Trump announces hes running again for president, as is widely expected, especially if Biden seeks a second term.

Biden, who was in the Senate even before Carter got to Washington, is steeped in institutional concerns. He cast his 2020 campaign broadly as a return to democratic norms, and in a preview of his likely messaging in 2024, he said of Trump last month: You cant be pro-insurrection and pro-democracy. You cant be pro-insurrection and pro-American.

If the electorates attention to threats to democracy can be fleeting, said John Anzalone, the longtime Biden pollster, the fact is, in some ways we forget democracy worked.

The fact is that we had a threat, Anzalone said, referring to the 2020 election. America rose up, and it kicked its ass.

Still, he said it wouldnt surprise anyone if Biden or Democrats running in some midterm elections make it more of an issue as the campaign season unfolds.

There may still be time for that. Most of the partys paid messaging will not come until after Labor Day. Democrats in some races are issuing fundraising appeals based on their opponents statements about elections, and they have found criticizing Republicans for election denialism effective when wrapped into a broader critique of a candidate as extreme.

On the call in November with the Carter group, Gephardt, who is 81 and living in Florida, said, Us old people dont have much of an audience And we shouldnt. Were has-beens. But we love this country, we love this democracy, and weve got to play the role of Paul Revere.

But that was in November. This spring, the Carter group met less often, disrupted by a run of deaths and memorial services for members of the group or people close to them. Between March and May, among other people, Albright and two former House representatives Vic Fazio and Norman Mineta, also a former transportation secretary passed away. There was a memorial service in May for Walter Mondale, the former vice president who, before his death last year, had been a regular on the calls.

By the time the group resumed its regular meetings earlier this summer, the anxiety some members had about democracy in the fall was no less severe. In some ways, they were even more dispirited. (Carter was aware of the groups meetings, Francis said, but has yet to participate in one. He has publicly warned the country is at risk of losing our precious democracy, while the Carter Center, long involved in monitoring elections abroad, turned its focus to the United States for the first time in 2020.)

Its conventional wisdom among pro-democracy activists globally that one strategy for protecting the ballot is to boost pro-democracy candidates regardless of their party. But instead, in a handful of states including Michigan, Maryland and Pennsylvania, Democratic groups had been meddling in Republican primaries, spending millions of dollars elevating pro-Trump hard-liners they believed would be easier for Democrats to defeat in the fall.

It may have been smart politics. In Maryland, the candidate helped by the Democratic Governors Association, Dan Cox a state lawmaker who organized buses to Washington for the rally preceding the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 is running in such a heavily Democratic state that he is almost certain to lose. By helping to sink Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have given Democrats a better chance of flipping a congressional seat there.

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There's a Huge Divide Among Democrats Over How Hard to Campaign for Democracy - POLITICO

Ever since June 24, 2022, when the Supreme Court issued a ruling overturning the right to abortion, people have been trying to predict its impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Polling data offer some clues; Gallup found that the number of Americans identifying themselves as pro-choice rose to a near record high in the aftermath of the Courts decision.

But trying to determine whether the abortion decision will affect voters decisions about individual candidates is pretty complicated. Throughout this year the big issues driving the election have included not just abortion but also inflation, gun control, and now, according to a recent NBC poll, threats to democracy.

The polls offer no clear picture of what might happen in head-to-head races between Democrats and Republicans in November.

This years elections have been mostly party primaries which also offer no clue as to how the abortion issue might affect the midterms. The two parties are so very clearly divided on this issue, that almost all the Republican candidates are in favor of the Courts decision and almost all the Democratic candidates are against it. However, in the months since the Supreme Courts decision, we have had four special elections which pit Democrats against Republicans. In Minnesotas 1st congressional district (MN-01), a special election was called to fill the vacancy created by the death of U.S. Rep. Jim Hagedorn. In Nebraskas 1st congressional district (NE-01), the seat became vacant after the resignation of incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry who was indicted on campaign finance charges. In New Yorks 19th congressional district (NY-19), a vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Antonio Delgado, who became New Yorks lieutenant governor.And in New Yorks 23rd congressional district (NY-23), the Republican Tom Reed resigned after sexual harassment allegations.

Although special elections are generally low turnout affairs, we can compare the performance of the Democrats and Republicans in these four races to past performance of candidates of their parties and to the performance of Biden and Trump in the 2020 presidential race to see if there is a pattern developing.

Lets start with the special election in NE-01, held four days after the Supreme Courts decision. In that race the Republican emphasized his sponsorship of a law that banned abortion after 20 weeks, while the Democrat criticized the Dobbs decision and emphasized her support for abortion rights. As the following chart shows, while the Democratic candidate, Patty Pansing Brooks, lost, she outperformed the last Democrat to run in a midterm by 7.7% in a very Republican district and she outperformed the Democratic candidate in 2020 by 9.7%. She also did better than Biden didoutperforming him by 6.2%.

NEBRASKA DISTRICT 1

MN-01s special election was held on August 9, 2022. In that election the Republican Brad Finstad ran as a clear opponent of abortion while the Democrat, Jeff Ettinger, ran as a pro-choice candidate with the backing of Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. But Ettinger ran behind the Democrat who ran in the last midterm election and only slightly ahead of the Democrat who ran in 2020. But he did run 2.9% ahead of Joe Bidens numbers in 2020.

MINNESOTA DISTRICT 1

In New York on August 23, there were two special electionsone in a swing district and one in a very Republican district. In NY-19, the swing district, the race turned into a very clear cut battle over abortion rights. The Democrat, Pat Ryan, won a narrow victory therealmost reaching the vote of the Democrat who ran in 2018 and exceeding the vote of the Democrat in 2020. In addition, Ryan ran 1.3% ahead of Biden in 2020.

NEW YORK DISTRICT 19

Finally, in NY-23, the most Republican district of the four special elections, the Republican candidate, Joe Sempolinski won but the Democrat, Max Della Pia outperformed the 2018 Democratic nominee by two points and outperformed the 2020 Democratic nominee by 6.9%. He also did 4.4% better than Biden did in 2020.

NEW YORK DISTRICT 23

Another way to look at these numbers is to compare them to Trumps past performance in the three districts he won. For example, in MN-01 Trumps margin was R+14.9 but the Republican margin in the special election was only R+5.4. In NE-01 Trumps margin was R+10.1 but the Republican margin in the special election was only R+3.9. And in NY-23 Trumps margin was R+11.2 but the margin in the special election sank to R+6.5.

A few things stand out in these four early tests. First, in each one of these districts (three of which were Republican districts and one an evenly matched district) the Democratic candidate in 2022 outperformed Joe Biden in 2020 and the Republican candidate underperformed Trump. Second, in the two races where the abortion issue seemed to stand out, NE-01 and NY-19, the Democrat did wellwinning narrowly in NY-19 and losing but dramatically improving Democratic performance in NE-01.

What does this all mean?

As of August 10, the Cook Political Report had 25 Democratic seats in the toss up category and 8 Republican seats in the toss up category. Control of the House may still end up in Republican hands, but to see what may be coming down the pike politicians look at margins in addition to winners and losers. In these special contests the Republican margins shrank and most of the Democratic margins grew. November is looking a little less grim for the Democratic Party today than it did a few months ago and as these races show, the abortion decision may be having a major role in the change.

Excerpt from:

Can the abortion issue save Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections? - Brookings Institution

The 2022 primary season is finally waning down. With only a handful of races left to be decided, Democratic chances of keeping their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate and winning key state and local races in November are growing, thanks to a strong field of highly qualified candidates with records of leadership and problem-solving who embrace moderate positions.

In contrast, in several key states and races across the country, Republican primary voters have nominated far-right extremists who in many cases embrace defeated former President Donald Trumps false claim that he won the 2020 presidential election and was robbed of victory by both Republican and Democratic state and local officials who rigged the election.

Many of these radical Republicans have never run for office before and are less qualified for government positions than I am to be an NFL quarterback. Still, Democrats must become much more aggressive in talking to and motivating voters of all backgrounds to support them this fall.

Here are a few of my recommendations to Democratic campaign managers and others working across the country.

First, take our campaigns directly to Democratic, Republican and Independent voters using GOTV, which stands for Get Out the Vote drives, not just Go On Television. Focus particular attention on people who often skip voting in midterm elections. The time to begin these voter drives is now, not two weeks before Election Day. We should remember that millions of people will start votingnext monthand many more will be voting absentee in October. Again, this is a big change from the pre-pandemic years.

Second, Democrats have positive cases to focus on, including the major achievements of the administration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats in Congress, including:

Third, remind voters that the disruption and deaths caused by the pandemic are easing, gasoline prices haveplummetedby more than $1 a gallon since June, inflation isslowing, the unemployment rateis downtoonly 3.5 percentin July (the lowest since before the pandemic), supply chain bottlenecks areclearing up, Biden has rallied the world in support of Ukraine against Russian aggression and expanded the NATO alliance, and al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri waskilledin a U.S. drone strike ordered by Biden.

Lastly, Democrats mustdraw attention to how millions of Americans would suffer if Republicans take control of one or both chambers of Congress or state houses because of the GOPs radical positions of opposing the common sense solutions discussed above. It needs to be stressed that all of these accomplishments took place while Democrats held a razor-thin majority in the House and had to deal with an evenly split Senate. Under the circumstances, the Democrats legislative achievements are truly astonishing, but further progress will be impossible if Republicans make even minimal gains in November.

In primary races, Trump has attacked Republicans who might be able to win general election campaigns and thrown his support to sycophantic candidates who accept his Big Lie that he was reelected two years ago and shower him with praise. This has producednomineespopular with Trumps base but not with the rest of the electorate.

Some Trump-endorsed candidates who have won their partys nominations have said they would haverefusedto certify Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential race and have given indications they would declare Trump the winner if he runs in 2024 regardless of what voters decide. They dont just oppose Democrats; they oppose democracy.

In addition, some Republican nominees have called forendingentitlement funding for Social Security and Medicare (meaning funding could be cut), advocated forreduced aidto public schools, called for sugarcoating American history in public schools to cover up the role ofracism, and favortax cutsfor the rich that would result in soaring deficits and less funding for vital programs.

The Republican civil war fueled by Trump has left the party disunited, with Republicans like Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who is term-limited, saying he will not vote for Dan Cox, the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee for governor. Hoganhas calledCox a nut and a QAnon whack job who is not, in my opinion, mentally stable. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has decried the sadcandidate qualityof the current crop of GOP nominees.

To take advantage of the weak GOP field, Democrats must focus on the issues and put party labels aside to demonstrate to voters which party can accomplish the most for the American people. From fighting inflation to getting people vaccinated to reopening schools and repairing roads, bridges and tunnels, to connecting every community, its Democrats who are driving forward and looking at the road ahead, while many Republicans are focused on the rearview mirror and Trumps election defeat.

These developments, along with the willingness of Democrats to campaign everywhere, should leave the party optimistic that, unlike in most midterm elections, the party in the White House will come out stronger in November. The mixture of a marvelously productive two years for Democrats and the weakness of Republican nominees has created the opportunity for historic wins in 2022. We need to grasp that opportunity.

Donna Brazile is a political strategist, a contributor to ABC News and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. She is the author of Hacks: Inside the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House.

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Democrats are on a roll: Heres how to ride the wave to November - The Hill

In 2018, Democrat Amy McGrath nearly accomplished the unthinkable when she came within three points of unseating Republican Representative Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, a once-competitive pocket of the state that, for the last decade, has been dominated by Republicans.

It was a major spiritual victory for Democrats, propelling McGrath to a Senate run against Mitch McConnell and a fresh enthusiasm in the district after Republicans wrested the district from Democratic control during the Obama administration.

Four years and a crushing 2020 defeat later, and the Kentucky Democratic Partyand the state's Democratic governor, Andy Beshearhave all but abandoned the district after refusing to support or endorse the candidacy of their party's nominee, Geoff Young, a former state engineer.

Not because of his progressive politics. Not because the perennial candidate has never won a race. And not because of his anemic fundraising against a powerful incumbent. It's because he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of neighboring Ukraine was not only justified, but warranted, mirroring talking points pushed by the Kremlin designed to bolster public support for the war.

In Young's view, Russia is not an imperialist state, but a nation acting in its own self-defense against Western aggression and seeking to liberate the Ukrainian people from an oppressive totalitarian governmentclaims closely resembling those in Russian propaganda supporting the war. And he has bought in to Russian allegations that the Ukrainian government is controlled by Nazis, a claim the U.S. State Department has described in official materials as a "particularly pernicious kind of Russian disinformation."

"My position is that ever since 2014, the main aggressors and mass murderers in Eastern Europe have been the United States, NATO and a group of well-armed Ukrainian Nazis supported by and armed by the United States," Young told Newsweek.

"We're not defending democracy. We're not defending the Ukrainian people. We are trying to, or have been trying to for the last eight years, set up a NATO base consisting of the entire territory of Ukraine, and point those weapons at Russia."

While Russian perspectives on the war have primarily found inroads in the right wing of American politics, Young's beliefs represent an increasing subset of the anti-war left that has become receptive to narratives perpetuated by countries like China and Russia critical of American imperialism.

A prominent example is found on Reddit, where popular progressive forums like /r/WayOfTheBernwhere Young held a Q&A with subscribers Monday nighthave beenincreasingly dominated by content advancing foreign interests while denigrating the United States. Other subsets of leftist politics have emerged that have bought in to the policies of Soviet bloc countries during the 20th century, earning them the online slang designation as "tankies."

But there are cultural factors playing into the phenomenon as well. Mary Blankenship, a Ukraine native and disinformation expert at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told Newsweek that the source of many of the Russian narratives surrounding Ukraine arose from a limited number of suspicious accounts online that were posted about February 24, when Russia's military first entered the country, signifying a concerted effort to shape the narrative around the invasion.

What makes people vulnerable to buying in to them, however, is the current health of people's trust in institutions. Since reaching a high of 77 percent in 1964, public trust in government has fallen to 20 percent as of May of 2021, according to Pew data, while trust in the mainstream media has collapsed to an all-time low in 2022, leading members of the public to seek out other sources of information that comport with their worldview.

"There's a propensity to think that everything is an inside job," Blankenship said. "Many people become susceptible to different conspiracy theories and disinformation not just around the war, but on a lot of different topics. I think you have a lot of the same sentiments that carry from domestic issues and domestic events and the grievances that both left-wing and right-wing people have in the U.S. that kind of carry through into foreign policy and foreign events."

But part of the allure, experts say, also lies with the rise of anti-establishment figures in American politics like Noam Chomsky on the left and Ron Paul on the right, whose criticisms of American imperialism have found a loyal audience on both ends of the political spectrum.

In one notable example from the 2016 presidential election, a University of Minnesota study found that Donald Trump, who pitched himself as an anti-war president, had some of his most significant successes as president in regions that suffered disproportionately high levels of casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Some on the left, like Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, have called the prospect of increased military aid "potentially disastrous." Other progressives who initially participated in Congress' consensus on the war have begun to tread carefully around other planks of the American response, with progressive members of "The Squad" voting against measures like bans on importing Russian oil and opposition to broad-based sanctions on the Russian government, for fear they could have disproportionately negative effects on the country's citizenry.

After U.S. military failures in the Middle East and countries like Vietnam, longtime media critic Jeff Cohenfounder of media watchdog FAIRsaid in an interview, the public has become more receptive to candidates willing to buck the American foreign policy establishment.

"The problem that we have in our country is that there's almost no debate on foreign policy, that there's a bipartisan consensus," Cohen told Newsweek. "And that bipartisan consensus is usually wrong. And the reason I can say that so bluntly is that if you look at almost any foreign policy adventure, every major intervention, 10 years later, even the mainstream media that was cheerleading for it at the time was wrong."

Young, and others, have equated criticisms of their beliefs to censorship. On July 14, the Ukrainian government's Center to Counter Disinformation released a since-deleted list featuring Young alongside figures who questioned U.S. involvement in the warlike journalist Glenn Greenwald and former Representative Tulsi Gabbardas Russian propagandists for questioning the United States' increasing involvement in the war.

But the list also featured figures like New York Senate candidate Diane Sare, who attended conferences sponsored by the left-wingt Schiller Institute, a highly controversial political organization that has sought to build a collaborative economic order between nations like China, Russia, India and the United States.

Sare, who participated in the Reddit Q&A with Young, echoed several of Young's claims about the Ukrainian government in an interview with Newsweek, includingcontested claims that the Ukrainian military was bombing its own citizens in an effort to secure the country.

But Sare said her opinions questioning the United States' involvement in Ukraine were intended to warn against the likelihood of nuclear war between the two countries, which she believed to be a likely conclusion of a full-scale engagement between the two superpowers.

"The idea of saying that I'm an information terrorist, that somehow I am a war criminal for saying we should not have a nuclear war...that's what they are asserting," Sare said.

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Meet the Democrat Siding With Putin on the Ukraine War - Newsweek

Some Democrats running in competitive reelection races in November are still reluctant to attach themselves to President Biden, even as he and the White House have been buoyed by a few weeks of good news.

Biden has in recent weeks racked up a series of major legislative victories, and hes seen his poll numbers rebound slightly from all-time lows earlier in the summer. But that has yet to translate to enthusiasm among Democrats to embrace him on the campaign trail.

There have been some signs of that changing as primary season comes to a close, and a few experts believe Democrats are better off embracing Biden in the wake of his recent hot streak.

Democrats cant possibly think that Republicans wont put them in ads with Biden even if he physically doesnt appear with him. Theyre going to be linked to Biden, so they might as well make the most of it, said Michael Cornfield, a political scientist and associate professor at George Washington University.

The benefits I think clearly outweigh the costs, he added.

During a recent trip to Ohio, Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley both skipped Bidens event. Neither has appeared alongside Biden on the campaign trail in recent weeks.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who did appear alongside Biden at an event earlier this year, recently sought to distance herself from the president in a campaign ad that states, She doesnt work for Joe Biden. She works for you.

Biden has had limited travel in recent weeks, as he was sidelined by COVID-19 and more recently spent two weeks on vacation. But the president has not appeared alongside Senate candidates this summer in key races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Arizona.

A Democratic strategist argued that incumbents and candidates will appear with Biden when it makes the most sense for their campaign strategy.

I think every candidate is going to look at it from his or her perspective in a very different manner and, particularly, if my demographic to win the race, for example, is white college-educated women and Im playing on a Roe v. Wade-related issue, it may make sense to bring the president in as a rallying cry, the strategist said.

The president has been something of a political drag in recent months, as rising costs of gas, housing, food and other goods helped sink his approval rating to a low average of 37 percent as recently as July 21, according to an average of polls from RealClearPolitics.

But momentum has started to shift, as Biden saw a flurry of congressional action in late July and early August, paired with declining gas prices and a successful counterterrorism mission that killed a top al Qaeda leader.

Bidens poll numbers have started to rebound: A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Wednesday found the presidents approval rating at its highest level since May, though it still sits at 40 percent.

Xochitl Hinojosa, former communications director at the Democratic National Committee (DNC), argued that Democrats should be using Biden on the campaign trail, considering the wins he has delivered.

Because of the leadership of President Biden and Democrats in Congress, Democratic candidates have a long list of accomplishments to run on, whether its a strong economy, policies that lower costs, infrastructure investments and historic climate investments, she said. Democrats should be doing everything to tout and embrace that agenda, including utilizing President Biden and his Cabinet on the campaign trail.

With the presidents brand starting to bounce back, a few Democrats have begun to signal they are willing to embrace Biden as campaign season heats up.

Hes a great man. Hes a great president. I cant wait for him to get down here. I need his help. I want his help. Hes the best Ive ever met, Rep. Charlie Crist told CNN on Wednesday after clinching the states Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wes Moore is set to join Biden on Thursday at a DNC event in Montgomery County, Md.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is in one of the most closely watched Senate races, gave a lukewarm endorsement of the president coming to visit him on the campaign trail.

I will welcome anybody that comes to Arizona, travel around the state at any time, as long as Im here, if Im not up in Washington in session, and talk about what Arizona needs, Kelly said Sunday on CNN.

A Democratic operative described Bidens lack of appearances with lawmakers as systematic and part of a strategy ahead of November.

Joe Biden is old school. He knows the value of campaigning for you or against you, whatever helps you win. The goal is to win, not to massage egos, the operative said.

Some administration officials have appeared with lawmakers to promote the Inflation Reduction Act at events around the country, which tend to draw very little attention compared to events with the president.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack participated in a roundtable discussion with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo) who is facing a tough reelection race in Grand Junction, Colo., last week. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 rival of Bidens, has also appeared in recent days with officials in Florida, New Mexico and Oklahoma.

Biden is expected to ramp up his travel after Labor Day to tout the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, though the White House has yet to preview where he is going or who he might appear with.

But strategists expect the White House to carefully calibrate where Biden can be most useful in announcing new funding and how he can benefit the party with just two months until the midterms.

I think Joe Biden at the end of the day is going to be all about, how do I keep a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate? one Democratic strategist said. If I can help, Ill be there. If I cant help, I wont be there.

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Democrats show reluctance to campaign with Biden - The Hill

Soon half of every dollar paid in federal income tax will be paying interest on the national debt (CNBC, Peter Tanous, 1/27/22). According to the US Treasury, $7.4 trillion is owed to China, Japan, oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers (Statista, Erin Duffin,8/2/22). The Social Security Trust Fund accounts for much of the rest of the $30.6 trillion debt (Statista).

When Obama began the debt was at $10.6 trillion and he left with an astounding $19.9 trillion (CNBC, J Cox, 2/2/19). The debt rose $7.9 trillion under Trump (WashPo, A Sloan, 1/14/21) mostly due to costs related to COVID and the pandemic stimulus. TheNYTimes (3/11/22) reported over $100 billion of that money hasnt ever been distributed by the Treasury. Why is that if we were told it was so imperative two years ago?

When Joe took office, the debt was $27.8 trillion rising $2.8 trillion to $30.6 trillion today. Who can say what his college debt forgiveness scheme will add? Didnt Madame Speaker say in 2021 Biden doesnt have the legal authority to forgive debt? Pelosi said Trump broke the law over a phone call (BBC News, 9/24/19) and the Democrats impeached him.

Dont expect Pelosi to bring articles of impeachment on Joe or any of them to care who is saddled with paying for it this folly. Thats because there is no debt cancellation, its a debt transfer to generations of those who didnt incur it and Pelosi said its illegal.

Al Gore announced in 2000 his top goal for being elected president was a steady reduction of the national debt (NYTimes, 4/26/00) which was only $5.6 trillion then. Joes debt transfer debacle wont fulfill Als dream nor will it lower inflation any more than his Inflation Reduction Act, but thats the cost of voting Democrat.

Ralph Miller

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The Cost Of Voting Democrat - The Chattanoogan

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When Congress debated the "American Rescue Plan" in early 2021, Democrats insisted this partisan, $1.9 trillion debt-financed spending spree would not fuel inflation and was needed for an economy already in quick recovery.

As Republicans and many economists predicted, the economy overheated, inflation soared and gas prices doubled. We are now in a period of economic stagnation, with the majority of the country believing we are already in a recession.

Rather than working together on pro-growth and counter-inflationary policies, my Democratic colleagues broke with earlier commitments for unity and chose to double down on a partisan, tried-and-failed tax-and-spend strategy with doses of medical price controls that will crush innovation and drive shortages. The mislabeled "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022," which experts say does nothing to curb inflation, offers higher taxes, more spending, higher prices, and an army of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) agents.

The bill includes a staggering $80 billion infusion of mandatory funding for the IRS. This fundingsix times the agencys current budgetwill empower the agency to hire an army of auditors to squeeze $204 billion out of taxpayers of all income levels to fund Democrats wishful "green new deal" policies.

HILL REPORT CLAIMS REPUBLICANS ARE MAKING THE IRS A BOOGEYMAN

Of the $80 billion, $45.6 billion will be for enforcement, to collect Democrats desired $204 billion or more of federal revenue. The IRS outlined in earlier documents it would use the funding to hire 86,852 fulltime employees, and specifically referenced "hiring and training agents dedicated to complex enforcement activities." Such hiring would make the IRS larger than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI, and Border Patrol combined.

Advocates argue the enforcement funding will be used to close the tax gapthe difference between taxes owed and taxes paidand then claim it is only about "wealthy tax cheats." Yet, the data tell a different story. Democrats will not achieve their desired tax revenue goals without also targeting the middle class, small businesses and taxpayers earning under $400,000 per year.

As Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee, I asked the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) to estimate where most underreported income in the "tax gap" lies. The JCT determined 78-90 percent of under- or misreported-income comes from those making below $200,000, while only around 4-9 percent comes from those making $500,000 or more.

Much misreported income comes from less sophisticated small businesses and sole proprietors, many of whom make less than $400,000 per year and simply have trouble complying with an oppressive and overly-complex tax code. Small, cash-heavy businesses and those who cannot afford teams of lawyers and legal fees are the easiest targets for a supersized IRS. With American taxpayers having a steadily high voluntary compliance rate, most recently reported at nearly 86 percent, rhetoric about hordes of American taxpayers being "tax cheats" seems inconsistent with facts.

The Finance Committee examined the IRSs own data on its success in having courts sustain IRS claims that people across the income spectrum are cheating on their taxes. The IRS success rate is below 47 percent over the past twenty years. Thus, the IRS more often asserts tax deficiencies exist, with the courts disagreeing, which is hardly evidence for a multitude of tax cheats. Rather, it is firm evidence innocent taxpayers are often subjected to unnecessary and inappropriate scrutiny. They will be to an even greater extent with nearly 87,000 new IRS employees whose mission will be to squeeze revenue out of American taxpayers.

Democratic colleagues, the Administration and the IRS are protesting they are not going to increase audits on people making less than $400,000. However, when I offered an amendment to put into binding statute that increased funds could not be used to increase audits on those making less than $400,000, every Democratic senator voted "No." The most they would agree to was to say they did not "intend" such audits. Even this non-binding pledge was later stricken from the bill. Democrats know increased audits for the middle class, small businesses and those making less than $400,000 are inevitable under their legislation.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) confirmed this, estimating my amendment would result in at least tens of billions less in enforcement revenue. So, the nonpartisan CBO confirms "at least" tens of billions of the projected revenue coming from increased enforcement will come from those making less than $400,000 per year. Moreover, according to data from the IRS and Joint Committee on Taxation, between 78 and 90 percent of underreported incomethe largest component of the tax gap the Democrats funding purports to want to closeis associated with taxpayers making less than $200,000 per year. Despite those facts, proponents of the recently passed tax-and-spend bill remain in denial. The promise to not tax anyone earning less than $400,000 will be broken.

Meanwhile, only $3.2 billionunder four percentof the IRS funding influx will be dedicated to taxpayer services. Given Americans have long dealt with abysmal IRS service, the "paupers sum" for fixing IRSs customer service is indefensible. It lays bare that my Democratic colleagues have less concern about poor IRS service and utmost interest in the IRS squeezing more money from American taxpayers.

Yet, far greater concern for taxpayer service is warranted. In 2021, just over one in ten callers was ever able to reach the IRS by telephone. More than 250 million calls simply went unanswered. Those who managed to get through spent more than 29 minutes on hold. That same year, it took the IRS on average 251 days to respond to taxpayer correspondencemore than triple the already dreadful 74 days average of 2019. Nonetheless, Democrats opted to set aside just a sliver of their IRS funding bloat for taxpayer services.

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While taxpayers are slighted, tax regulators will have a bonanza, with nearly $105 million to swell the coffers of the Treasury Office of Tax Policy for unaccountable bureaucrats in Treasurys tax-rules-and-regulation-writing machine. Americans already face too much regulatory red tape created by Washington, but Democrats instead chose to supercharge complexity and hassle. Flush with funding, Treasury "technocrats" could, and undoubtedly will, foist everything from higher audit rates to the resurrection of their bank reporting scheme on American taxpayers. Letting the IRS snoop into the bank accounts of all Americans who have more than $10,000 worth of transactions in a year would essentially give the IRS access to virtually all Americans bank accounts.

I will be introducing my amendment as a standalone bill to prevent the IRS from using any of the supersized $80 billion of funding for audits on hard-working American taxpayers, individuals and small businesses with taxable incomes below $400,000. The bill puts legislative teeth into an otherwise non-binding (and now-stricken) statement of intent or toothless and unenforceable edict from the Treasury Secretary.

My Democratic colleagues circumvented regular order and slipped through with the narrowest possible margin a partisan bill filled with an unbridled, supersized IRS, unvetted tax policies, and spending policies and price controls that will not work.

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Americans should be very concerned, and brace for more audits, investigations and tax enforcement on taxpayers of all income levels. Taxpayers deserve better.

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Republican Mike Crapo represents Idaho in the United States Senate where he serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee.

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Democrats hire army of agents at IRS to squeeze honest taxpayers for Green New Deal - Fox News