Daily Archives: August 25, 2022

August 25, 2022

In this issue: Takeaways from primaries in New York and a look ahead to New Hampshire

Florida and New York held statewide primaries Tuesday, while Oklahoma held a statewide primary runoff. We were watching two battleground Republican primaries in those states. Heres how those races unfolded:

New Yorks 23rd Congressional District: Nicolas Langworthy defeated Carl Paladino 51%-47%.

Langworthy is a former chairman of the New York Republican Party who was also a member of the executive committee for Donald Trumps (R) presidential transition in 2016. Paladino was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2010 and co-chaired Trumps 2016 campaign in New York.

Both candidates won endorsements from national Republicans. Langworthys endorsers included U.S. Rep. Jim Banks (R), and Paladinos included U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The 23rd District is currently vacant following Tom Reeds (R) resignation in May amidst an allegation of sexual misconduct.

Election forecasters rate the general election Solid/Safe Republican.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate special runoff: Markwayne Mullin defeated T.W. Shannon 65%-35%.

Mullin is a member of the U.S. House who was first elected in 2012. Shannon is the CEO of Chickasaw Community Bank and a former state representative.

Mullin and Shannon were the top two finishers from a 13-candidate field running for the Republican nomination for the four remaining years in Sen. Jim Inhofes (R) term. Inhofe will retire in January.

Mullins endorsers include former President Donald Trump (R), and Shannons included former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Politico wrote about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) endorsements:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis political muscle was on full display Tuesday night, as candidates he endorsed won a handful of key state legislative races and a wave of school board seats, which were a main focus for the governor in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm.

DeSantis biggest legislative win was Republican Kiyan Michael, who is running for a Jacksonville state House seat. Michael was running against more established and better funded politicians, including a former state representative.

DeSantis did not endorse until late in the race, but his support gave Michael immediate momentum to overcome her Republican rivals. She ended up securing 47 percent of the vote in a three-way primary.

For the final weeks of primary season, DeSantis put an outsized effort, including contributions from his personal political committee, into local school boards across the state. Its part of his broader agenda to reshape Floridas education system.

It worked. Of the 30 school board candidates that got DeSantis formal support, 21 won their election bids Tuesday night.

The Tampa Bay Times wrote about incumbents performance in Floridas primaries:

If the Democratic establishment had a good night, the Republican Party institution had a great one.

Senate President Wilton Simpson comfortably defeated primary challenger James W. Shaw in the GOP primary for agriculture commissioner. Several incumbent U.S. representatives Vern Buchanan, for example crushed primary opponents challenging them from the right.

Then there were the candidates who lost.

During his two terms in office, state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, R-Howey-in-the-Hills, made enemies around the Florida Legislature. He repeatedly clashed with his own partys leadership, calling Chris Sprowls, the top Republican in the Florida House, a RINO: Republican In Name Only. As Sabatini geared up for the 7th Congressional District GOP primary, it was apparent that top state Republicans were rooting for him to lose.

He did, by more than 10,000 votes, to veteran Cory Mills, whose campaign netted more than a dozen endorsements from GOP U.S. representatives. After the race was called, Sabatini blamed the result on the Swamp.

In The Villages-area 11th Congressional District primary, a similar story played out in far-right activist Laura Loomers challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Loomer, who has called Islam a cancer on society, lost the primary by about 5,000 votes. (She refused to concede Tuesday, citing big tech election interference.)

The figures below were current as of Wednesday morning. Click here for more information on defeated incumbents.

Three state legislative incumbentstwo Democrats and one Republicanlost primaries in Florida and New York on Aug. 23. One incumbent faced a contested primary runoff in Oklahoma and won. Overall, there are 11 uncalled state legislative primaries featuring incumbents: four Democratic and seven Republican.

Across the 42 states that have held statewide primaries so far, 202 incumbents, 4.8% of those running for re-election, have lost, continuing an elevated rate of incumbent primary defeats compared to recent election cycles.

Of the 42 states that have held primaries, 11 have Democratic trifectas, 21 have Republican trifectas, and 11 have divided governments. Across these states, there are 5,479 seats up for election, 87% of the nationwide total.

A recent St. Anselm College poll shows that most Republican voters in New Hampshires 1st Congressional District are undecided about who they will vote for, with Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt leading.

The poll, conducted between Aug. 9-11, found Leavitt and Mowers about even with 25% and 21% support, respectively. The only other candidates to register more than 5% support were Gail Huff Brown at 9% and Tim Baxter at 8%.

Another 33% of respondents said they were undecided. The polls margin of error was 4.8 percentage points.

Mowers was the 1st District nominee in 2020 and earlier served as an aide to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). Mowers won 59% of the vote in the 2020 primary, defeating four other candidates, before losing to Chris Pappas (D), 51% to 46%, in the general election.

Leavitt worked as a presidential writer and assistant press secretary in President Donald Trumps (R) administration. After Trump left office, Leavitt was communications director for U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik.

Leavitt launched her first TV ad on Aug. 16, describing herself as a conservative outsider and New Hampshire native.

National Republicans are supporting both Mowers and Leavitt. Mowers endorsers include former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Leavitts include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), and U.S. Reps. Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.).

As of June 30, Mowers had raised $1.57 million to Leavitts $1.27 million.

Primaries in New Hampshire are semi-closed, meaning a voter must either be a member of the party or not be a member of any party in order to participate.

The winner will face two-term incumbent Pappas. Two election forecasters rate the general election a toss-up, and a third says it tilts towards Democrats.

Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse lead in New Hampshires U.S. Senate primary, according to the same St. Anselm College poll that shows a tight race in the 1st Congressional District.

The poll found Bolduc leading Morse 32% to 16%, with nearly 40% undecided. No other candidate had support from more than 5% of respondents. Its very unclear whos going to win this, said Fergus Cullen, a former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party.

According to Politicos Natalie Allison, two potentially decisive endorsements loom: That of former President Donald Trump, and [New Hampshire Gov. Chris] Sununu. Though he has not endorsed a candidate, Sununu has criticized Bolduc, saying, I dont take Bolduc as a serious candidate. I dont think most people do.

In an Aug. 14 debate sponsored by the Government Integrity Project, Bolduc, Bruce Fenton, and Kevin Smith all said they doubted the outcome of the 2020 election. Bolduc said, I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals saying Trump won the election, and damn it, I stand by [it]. Fenton said that we cant tell whats true, but that there was a lot of fraud during the election. Smith said its very unlikely that Joe Biden got 81 million votes and said hed support investigations into the 2020 election if elected.

The three candidates also offered their positions on the FBI following the departments search of former President Trumps home at Mar-a-Lago. The first question we have to ask is, do we still need the FBI? If we answer that question no, then get rid of them, Bolduc said. Its time to abolish the FBI and replace it with nothing, Felton said. I believe at its core, its a good institution, and I believe there are fine men and women who want to do their jobs and want to protect us, Smith said.

As of June 30, Fenton had raised $1.6 million to Morses $1.3 million. Smith raised $700,000, and Bolduc raised $500,000.

The incumbent is Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), who was first elected in 2016. The two preceding Senate elections were split in competitiveness. In 2020, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) won re-election against Bryant Messner (R) by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In 2016, Hassan (D) defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.1 percentage points.

New Hampshire uses a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.

Weve crunched some numbers to see how competitive New Yorks primaries were compared to recent cycles. The state legislative numbers include figures for both the state Senate primaries held earlier this week and the state Assembly primaries in June.

Notes on how these figures were calculated:

Nevada voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would implement a top-five primary system in their state on this years November ballot.

Earlier this year, Alaska became the first state to hold top-four congressional primaries.

The Nevada proposal would allow five candidates to advance from the primary. It would adopt the new voting system for state executive and state legislative elections as well as congressional races. The measure would not affect presidential or local elections.

Alaska is not the first state to end the use of partisan primaries for congressional nominations. California and Washington use a top-two system in which only two candidates advance from the primary, eliminating the need for ranked-choice voting in the general election.

Louisiana uses a majority-vote system which is similar to the top-two system but allows a candidate who wins more than 50% of the primary vote to win the election outright.

Although Maine still uses partisan primaries, it uses ranked-choice voting for general elections for Congress.

Supporters of the initiative include the Institute for Political Innovation and Vote Nevada. Opponents include Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), U.S. Sens. Jacky Rosen (D) and Catherine Cortez-Masto (D), and the state branch of the AFL-CIO.

Nevada requires that initiated constitutional amendments win approval twice before taking effect. This means voters would need to approve the measure again in 2024 if it passes this year before the new system is adopted.

Between 1985 and 2020, 73% of citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that made the ballot in Nevada won approval after voters passed them twice.

The rest is here:

Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 36 Ballotpedia News - Ballotpedia News

Four more Republican-led states will ban almost all abortions this week as yet another slate of laws severely limiting the procedure takes effect following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

To date, 13 states have passed so-called trigger laws that were designed to outlaw most abortions if the high court threw out the constitutional right to end a pregnancy. The majority of those states began enforcing their bans soon after the June 24 decision, but Idaho, Tennessee and Texas had to wait 30 days beyond when the justices formally entered the judgment, which happened several weeks after the ruling was announced.

That deadline is up Thursday. Meanwhile, North Dakota's trigger law is scheduled to take effect Friday.

The change will not be dramatic. All of these states except North Dakota already had anti-abortion laws in place that largely blocked patients from accessing the procedure. And the majority of the clinics that provided abortions in those areas have either stopped offering those services or moved to other states where abortion remains legal.

Texas, the country's second-largest state, has banned most abortions once fetal cardiac activity has been detected, which can be as early as six weeks into pregnancy, before many women know they're pregnant. The ban has been in place for almost a year, since courts refused to stop the law last September.

While clinics were severely limited in the services they could provide during that time, they officially stopped offering abortions on the day of the Supreme Court ruling. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton argued that state laws that banned abortion before Roe v. Wade could be enforced ahead of the implementation of the trigger law.

Much like Texas' current abortion ban, the upcoming trigger law does not include exceptions for rape or incest. Instead it has a loophole if a woman's life or health is in danger.

But the state challenged a legal interpretation put forth by the federal government that was aimed at requiring Texas hospitals to provide abortion services if the life of the mother is at risk. On Wednesday, a federal judge temporarily blocked the government from enforcing that interpretation.

Texas argued that the federal guidance would have required hospitals to provide abortions before the mother's life is clearly at risk, which would have violated the state's trigger law.

A similar situation played out in Idaho, but there a federal judge ruled Wednesday thatIdaho can't criminalize abortion needed for emergency medical care that the state's abortion ban violated federal law. U.S. District Judge B. Lynn Winmill said the state could not enforce its abortion ban in cases where the pregnant person was experiencing a medical emergency that seriously threatened their life or health. Idaho's abortion ban makes all abortions felonies, but allows physicians to defend themselves in court by arguing that the procedure was necessary to save the life of the mother or done in cases of rape or incest.

In all, more than 40 states limit some abortions after a certain point in pregnancy, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research group that supports abortion rights. Those state laws generally require a doctor to determine the gestational age before performing an abortion.

Over in Tennessee, just two of the six clinics that provide abortions have continued to offer the service since Roe was overturned. They are doing so even as Tennessee has enacted a "heartbeat law" similar to the one passed in Texas. Doctors who violate the law risk felony convictions and up to 15 years in prison.

Continuing to operate after the high court's abortion ruling has been at times a "painful" experience, said Melissa Grant, chief operations officer of carafem, which has had a Nashville clinic since 2019. The legal environment has required difficult conversations between staffers and patients who may be unaware how early in pregnancy cardiac activity can be detected.

Because Tennessee requires patients to wait 48 hours before getting an abortion, Grant says her staff has seen some patients qualify for the procedure during an initial visit only to be turned away two days later because an ultrasound picked up fetal cardiac activity.

"When we find that we do ultimately have to turn somebody away, whether it's the first visit, the second visit, the conversations can be very emotional. Primarily anger, fear, grief, sometimes disbelief, and it's difficult for the staff," she said.

The situation is similar in Memphis, where abortion providers at the region's lone operating clinic say they've turned away nearly 100 patients who did not qualify for an abortion during their second visit, said Jennifer Pepper, chief executive officer of CHOICES: Memphis Center for Reproductive Health.

That stress continues to compound in the days leading up to the trigger law deadline. As the last appointments took place, the staff had to weigh each patient's situation against the likelihood that they will qualify under Tennessee's already sharp restrictions and their ability to travel out of state.

"These decisions are very difficult," Grant said. "You can only see a finite number of people before you have to stop."

CHOICES was the first abortion clinic to open in Memphis in 1974, and on Thursday it will become the last. The clinic is bracing for the change by increasing its midwife resources, expanding the birth center and offering gender-affirming care. It is also opening a second location in Carbondale, Illinois, a three-hour drive to the north.

The staff planned to gather Friday to "celebrate how we've served thousands of our patients. We're starting a new chapter, but it is not our last chapter," Pepper said.

In Idaho, 20 states and Washington, D.C., have since filed a friend-of-the-court brief siding with the federal government as it argues that Medicaid-funded hospitals must provide "stabilizing treatment" to patients experiencing medical emergencies despite its trigger law.

Separately, 16 states have sided with Idaho's Republican leaders in support of the law.

Much of Idaho's law will still go into effect Thursday, but U.S. District Judge B. Lynn Winmill ruled Wednesday the state cannot prosecute anyone who is performing an abortion in an emergency medical situation.

Most abortions in Idaho were effectively banned on Aug. 12, when the Idaho Supreme Court allowed a different law to go into effect allowing potential relatives of an embryo or fetus to sue abortion providers.

North Dakota is also waiting to see if its trigger law will be implemented. Lawyers for the state's only abortion clinic, which recently moved a few miles to Minnesota, have asked for a delay as they pursue a lawsuit challenging the ban. A judge has promised to make a decision on the request by the end of this week.

Excerpt from:

Four more Republican-led states will ban almost all abortions this week - CBS News

Really struggling to support the current Republican Party

I want so badly to support the Republican Party again, but I am concerned that a Republican vote is a vote for Trump. How can anyone with intelligence agree with his claim of having the election stolen, given all of the bipartisan rechecks?

Media is blamed for my feelings and maybe that is right, but listening to his rants and immature behavior did influence this opinion. My hope is that we have some candidates with integrity in 2024 representing the Republican Party and not the Trump Party.

Dianne MerrymanZeeland

We're fixing the damn roads

Many of my friends and relatives traveled to Michigan this summer. They noticed all the road construction and orange barrels. They were amazed. The roads and bridges needed major work. Under Gov. Whitmer, Michigan has had over 13,000 lane miles of roads repaired and replaced.

Over 900 bridges have been repaired and the Governor supports a $5 billion dollar infrastructure bill to continue this work.

Gov. Whitmer delivered on the promise to fix the "damn" roads. She needs to be re-elected to continue this work. Finally, a governor who keeps her promises!

Sue MaturkanichWest Olive

Read the original here:

Letter to the Editor: Really struggling to support the current Republican Party - HollandSentinel.com

A reporter at the Washington Post claimed yesterday that employees at the Internal Revenue Service told him that right-wing rhetoric has raised fears that workers could be targeted at their workplaces or in public if theyre identified as IRS employees.

The Post suggests that public comments by California Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, Georgia Republican Rep. Andrew Clyde, and Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott serve as evidence of this rhetoric.

Rep. Clyde told The American Conservative in response, Its no surprise that the left-wing media is attempting to discredit valid concerns about Democrats new supersized IRS.

The congressman continued, After being wrongfully targeted by the IRS myself, I can assure folks that the comparison between the weaponization of the IRS and FBI isnt far-fetched. Democrats have dangerously weaponized both agencies, and until these institutions start working for the American people instead of liberal elites, we will only see an increase in both unjust audits and unjust political persecution.

The article also references a public letter released by Senator Scott, which claims that the massive expansion of the IRS will make it larger than Pentagon, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Customs and Border Protection and the State Department combined.

The congressmen are referring to the changes effected by the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill passed along party lines and signed into law by President Biden last Tuesday that adds over $75 billion to the IRS budget through 2031. Over sixty percent of those added funds (more than $45 billion) is allocated for enforcement.

At least a portion of these enforcement funds will be granted to the Criminal Investigations Division (IRS-CI), the federal law enforcement agency that gained attention last week after Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie shared a video on Twitter that went viral. The video includes an interview with a special agent in the division, who says that agents generally [wear] ammunition, handcuffs, and first aid. When asked if agents carry tasers, the agent said, no tasers. The IRS-CI boasts a 2,046-member force of special agents that primarily focuses its investigative time on tax crimes.

In a recent job posting, the IRS-CI included Carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force, if necessary on the list of major duties for the special agent position; that job responsibility has since been removed from the agencys website.

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One example of the agency threatening violent force for non-violent crimes was recounted in a 1998 Senate Finance Committee testimony by Texas oil tycoon William Moncrief: My employees heard the agents shout, IRS! This business is under criminal investigation. Remove your hands from the keyboards and back away from the computers. And remember, we are armed.

More recently, reports by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) describe patterns of negligence and training discrepancies for the agents. A 2017 report claims that, In only five of the 229 interviews conducted, noncustodial statements of rights, such as the right to remain silent, were provided. Another from 2012 says that nineteen firearm discharges were reported between 2009-2011: eight were intentional and eleven were accidental.

The IRS reported in June that the agency had a backlog of 21.3 million unprocessed paper tax returns. Experts say the recently added funds should clear that up in no time.

Read more:

EXCLUSIVE: Georgia Republican Responds to Washington Post Article - The American Conservative

By Katie MarrinerVictor Reklaitis

GOP had real advantage in generic ballot in July, but not anymore

Here's another sign of improving Democratic prospects as November's midterm elections get closer: The Republican Party's edge in the generic ballot has basically evaporated.

The generic ballot refers to a poll question that asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election without naming individual candidates. Analysts tend to see it as a useful indicator.

Republicans now score 44.2% support in a RealClearPolitics average of generic ballots, with Democrats just a bit behind at 44.0%.

On Aug. 16 through Aug. 18, Democrats had the lead with 44.1% vs. the GOP's 43.9%, according to RCP's data.

The tightness is a big change from the prior eight months, when Republicans for the most part enjoyed a sizable edge in the generic ballot, as shown in the chart below.

Democrats appear to be getting a lift from several developments. For starters, gasoline prices have declined from recent highs, even as prices for other essentials remain elevated and Americans are still worried about rampant inflation.

The GOP also has some candidates who are struggling in their campaigns. The top Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, conceded last week that "candidate quality" may mean his party will fail to flip that chamber.

In addition, voters that support abortion rights and therefore lean Democratic seem more eager to turn out in the wake of the Supreme Court decision in June that overturned Roe v. Wade.

Related:Democrat Pat Ryan overcomes polling gap to win 'bellwether' special election in New York state for U.S. House seat

"We've seen an uptick in Democratic numbers over the past six weeks," said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, during a panel discussion on Tuesday hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank.

"They've had legislative successes with the inflation bill, and other climate provisions thrown in there with that bill," she said, referring to Democrats' big healthcare, climate and tax package.

"But I think particularly the Dobbs decision that sent Roe back to the states ... has really energized the Democratic base. When I talk to Republican strategists, they know that they're sort of frittering away this really good opportunity."

Related:This House seat may flip red for the first time in almost a century and indicate whether Republicans have 'had a really good night'

And see:Biden 'should have further targeted the relief': Democrats in tough Senate races distance themselves from his plan for student-loan forgiveness

The additional charts below show how betting markets see Democrats keeping their grip on the Senate but losing control of the House, along with key Senate races to watch.

This report was first published on Aug. 24, 2022.

-Katie Marriner

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-25-22 0930ET

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Midterm elections: Republican edge over Democrats erodes in this one key indicator - Morningstar

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., center, stumps for GOP congressional candidates at a Tigard hotel on Aug. 24, 2022.

Dirk VanderHart / OPB

Oregon Republicans have made a ritual of tearing into Portland and its policies in election years. On Wednesday, the top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives decided to get in on the action.

As he raises funds for Republican congressional candidates throughout the West, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., appeared at a Tigard hotel to tear into defund the police policies he said had exacerbated crime in Portland and other liberal cities.

The one size fits all that the Democrats have about just cutting police does not work, he said. We watch the homicides go up. Crime goes up. Communities economics go down. The real question is how many people in the last two years seek to go to downtown Portland.

Appearing alongside U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, and three GOP candidates hoping to prevail in November, McCarthy talked of rising murders and disorder in Portland, explicitly tying those issues to a progressive movement to slash police funding.

Top Democrats including President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have said repeatedly they do not agree with a push to defund law enforcement espoused by some of their partys most progressive members and that they in fact have increased police funding. While McCarthy linked the majority party to defunding police, he made no actual claim that theyd done so, repeatedly touting federal grants for law enforcement and promising to bolster the criteria for receiving those grants.

Flanking McCarthy were mayors and other elected officials from cities in the Portland area, including Troutdale, Gresham, Canby and Aurora. As part of the events roundtable format, they brought public safety concerns to McCarthy, many urging him to ensure their small communities could compete for federal public safety money.

Weve seen firsthand the issues of Portland that have crept into Gresham, said Gresham City Councilwoman Sue Piazza. The crime in Gresham has gone up exponentially. Its still unbelievable to me.

Wednesdays visit was further evidence that the GOP sees Oregon as a potentially fruitful place to flip Democratic House seats as it attempts to retake the chamber in November. McCarthy has made no secret that he badly wants to be the next speaker of the House.

Republicans currently hold just one of the states five congressional districts a safely red Eastern Oregon seat occupied by Bentz. But with national political winds at their backs, newly reshaped district boundaries and a brand new congressional district open for the taking, the party believes it can net at least one additional seat in the Beaver State.

Republicans are particularly optimistic about the 5th Congressional District, which was reshaped in last years redistricting process and now stretches from Portland to Bend.

Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, a seven-term incumbent, lost a primary challenge from Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a Terrebonne attorney and consultant who ran to his left. She faces Republican former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a race many analysts believe is a toss-up. The political forecasting site fivethirtyeight currently gives Chavez-DeRemer a slight edge.

One sign of GOP bullishness in the district: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC affiliated with McCarthy, announced in April it had spent $3.3 million to reserve ad space in the Portland market.

Republicans appear to have a tougher fight in the other two Oregon districts theyd like to flip this year.

In the 4th Congressional District that includes much of coastal and southwest Oregon, Democratic Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle and Republican Alek Skarlatos are vying to fill the opening left by outgoing Democratic Congressman Peter DeFazio. Skarlatos, a former Oregon Army National Guardsman who won fame for his role in foiling a 2015 terror attack in France, mounted a competitive campaign against DeFazio two years ago.

But under redistricting the seat has grown bluer, a factor DeFazio cited when announcing his retirement last year. Democrats now hold an 8% registration advantage. Even so, Republicans have named Skarlatos one of their trailblazer candidates, signaling they think he has a chance to flip the district.

One candidate national Republicans havent talked up much: Mike Erickson, a businessman and three-time congressional hopeful who won a competitive GOP primary for Oregons new 6th Congressional District.

Erickson faces state Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego, in a district that stretches from Portland to Salem and west to the coast range. Democrats hold a registration advantage of more than 5 points, and many forecasters believe the party has a good chance to prevail in the district.

McCarthy offered no hint Wednesday his candidates could lose.

I believe this elections gonna change the course of history, he said. Oregon could be a fundamental state that changes their direction. I think voters want to see something different.

Portland has long served as a foil for Republican candidates keen to depict the citys problems and policies as an example of Democratic failures or overreach. Thats been especially true since 2020, when a combination of pandemic closures, rising homelessness and convulsive racial justice protests attracted the attention of national Republicans like former President Donald Trump.

After calls by some progressive groups and city officials, Portland trimmed its police budget and got rid of a gun violence reduction team that critics charged disproportionately targeted Black residents. The city has since reinstated a similar effort under a different name and with more oversight.

At the same time, Portland has seen a surge in shootings and murders. In 2021, the city saw a record 92 homicides, and it could surpass that number this year. Assaults and property crime were up last year compared to 2019, according to Portland Police Bureau statistics.

Those issues are not unique to Portland, or even Democrat-led states and cities. McCarthys own hometown of Bakersfield, led by a Republican mayor and under the jurisdiction of a law-and-order district attorney, has seen increases in murder, sexual assault and robberies.

McCarthy suggested those problems came from state policies passed by Democrats.

Like many downtowns nationwide, Portland has also struggled to bounce back to pre-pandemic form. A recent much-publicized study suggested the city has lagged behind other large and mid-sized cities in attracting people back downtown. The Portland Business Alliance released its own data on Tuesday countering that narrative and suggesting foot traffic in the downtown core has surged of late.

McCarthy has recently traveled around the West touting candidates. On Monday, he stumped for a Republican congresswoman in New Mexico under the auspices of an education roundtable, and yesterday held an event in Las Vegas to support three GOP candidates in Nevada.

National Democrats issued a statement ahead of McCarthys visit. But where the House minority leader wanted to talk crime, the Democrats hammered on the issue they most want to put before voters: Abortion and the demise of Roe v. Wade.

Oregonians overwhelmingly support a womans right to choose but that hasnt stopped Alek Skarlatos, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Mike Erickson from pushing an extreme anti-abortion agenda, Johanna Warshaw, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. With this visit from Kevin McCarthy, the Oregon GOP field has made clear they would be a solid vote for a nationwide abortion ban.

Congressman Earl Blumenauer, a Portland Democrat who is in no danger of losing his seat this year, offered his own thoughts. In a statement, he attacked McCarthy for threatening to investigate FBI officials after the agency executed a search warrant on former President Donald Trumps home earlier this month. Agents were reportedly looking for documents Trump kept improperly when departing the White House, including highly sensitive material.

The notion that Republican enablers want to discuss public safety while they excuse Donald Trumps illegal handling of highly classified materials and attack the FBI is shameful, Blumenauers statement said. This is pure grandstanding when America needs leadership.

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National GOP leader McCarthy piles on Portland criticism in pitch for Oregon Republicans - Oregon Public Broadcasting