Monthly Archives: August 2022

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty

ODESA, UkraineRussia has been bombarding the seaside city of Odesa since the earliest days of its war in Ukrainebut the critical grain port has become a symbol of ongoing local resistance, where even former pro-Russian stalwarts are now embracing Ukrainian patriotism.

The longer the war goes on, fewer people sympathize with Russia in Ukraine. Those who spoke Russian in everyday life, switch to Ukrainian, a long-time observer of Ukraines politics, Yevgeny Kisilyev, told The Daily Beast on Tuesday. Even the most openly pro-Russian politicians, including Odesas mayor have turned into passionate enemies of [Russian president Vladimir] Putins regime.

Odesa, with its huge grain storage and shipping resources, is a much-desired target for Moscow. Russian missiles have been destroying the city since the first days of the war. In March and April, missiles killed dozens of civilians, including a three-month-old baby girl, Kira Glodan, her mother, and her grandmother.

The tragedy angered Odesa but the massacre did not stop. On July 1, one of the missiles hit an apartment block in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, killing 19 people. Weeks later, on July 20, Russia fired eight missiles that cost millions of dollars, which our forces brought down along with a Russian drone, Natalya Humeniuk, spokeswoman of the South Defense forces, told The Daily Beast in an interview last week.

Russia Accused of Blowing up POW Camp Killing 50+ to Cover Up Their War Crimes

The relentless attacks from Russia have hardened local sentiments against Putin. During the first week of the war, Odesas mayor, Gennady Trukhanovwho many believed had a Russian passportsaid nothing against Moscow, local activist Julia Grodetskaya told The Daily Beast. So concerned citizens consolidated, and patriotic volunteers worked hard on the citys defense. Their actions, and constant Russian violence, changed the leadership and made local authorities more patriotic," she said, adding that now, all former pro-Russian Odesans are ready to defend our city.

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This is not how Moscow had planned it. On the eve of the war, one of the Kremlins ideologists, Sergei Markov, told The Daily Beast that Russian forces would take Odesa easily. There will be a quick Marine landing supported by a pro-Russian underground, Markov predicted of the development of the war on the Black Sea.

After a missile strike on a warehouse of an industrial and trading company in Odesa on July 16.

Oleksandr Gimanov/AFP via Getty

Instead, Odesa became a symbol of resistanceand that pro-Russian underground melted away. As thousands of displaced people from neighboring Mykolaiv and Russian-occupied Kherson have flocked to the city, locals hung huge, patriotic banners with warning messages for potential saboteurs and spies. One of them showed a Ukrainian cutting a spys throat: Get ready, we know all your routes. More banners in the district of Pushkinska and Bunin streets said, "If somebody touches Mama Odesa, Mama will bury them."

Odesa also made the decision to get rid of all the street names of the aggressor countrythough it declined a petition, signed by 25,000 people, calling on Ukraines president Volodymyr Zelensky to demolish local monuments to Catherine the Great and Russian poet Alexander Pushkin. The city said it was not the right time to discuss the pre-revolutionary monuments. Nevertheless, the citys mayor, Trukhanov, said it was cynical of Moscow to describe Ukraine as brother people but destroy it with missiles. Odesa has had losses in this war and we dont want to have anything to do with a state that is trying to eliminate our city, our country from the face of the Earth, the mayor said in a public statement last month.

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Odesa is a beautiful and unique city.

Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images

Now, even as Russia continues to bombard Odesa, there are signs of vibrant life everywhere. In the harbor, yachts rock gently in the late-afternoon sunthough they're all staying at the docks this season, because the Russians have planted mines in the surrounding waters. Still, the Yacht Club marina is bustling: on a recent Friday, musicians from the local opera and philharmonic theater performed a concert of Ukrainian songs for an audience of famous artists, writers, and accomplished businessmen, who in the early days of the war founded two powerful volunteer movementscalled On the Wave, and Sandboxto save their gorgeous, graceful city. They surrounded cultural monuments with sandbags, distributed armored vests, and welded tank barriers.

Ukraine is preparing to ship 16 vessels full of grain to the Turkish port of Izmir ending a long economic drought for the city. Odessens were watching the smooth and bare Black Sea on Sunday. The first vessel with grain is scheduled to leave on Monday but many fear Russia might strike at the ships in spite of Moscows agreements with Turkey. Our favorite sea is like a battle field, Dmitro Botskevsky, a retired skipper, told The Daily Beast. Our military drone attacked Russian fleets headquarters today in Sevastopol, there are concerns about the safety of the passage for the grain, of course.

Meet the Putin Lovers Who Want Him to Invade Their Country

Local defense volunteersled by the Yacht Clubs director, Albert Kobakovgrew more numerous as the war dragged on. Hundreds of activists joined. When the war began, I came here to show that I am not going to surrender, said local activist Maya Dimereli. She and Grodetskaya said that the biggest concern in the first week of the war was that the city authorities would betray Odesa and hand it over to Russia.

The aftermath of a missile strike at Serhiivka village, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa region of Ukraine on July 1.

State Emergency Services of Ukraine via Reuters

Instead, Odesas businessmen felt committed to helping their city. From the owner of a perfume store, Dmitry Malyutin, to the founder of a tourist company, historian Aleksandr Babich, the citys elite opened their doors and supported the volunteers. If not for our society, I am not sure how long our resistance would have lasted. Their self-organization is fascinating and time plays against Putinhe is bombing Mykolaiv violently but Odesa is his problem, Sevgil Musaieva, editor-in-chief of Ukrainskaya Pravda, Ukraines legendary newspaper, told The Daily Beast. Politically we are winning the warthe entire world is supporting Ukraine.

Thousands of volunteers also signed up to be soldiers in the territorial defense units, since Odesa was keenly aware of the threat of a potential ambush by Russian forces from Transnistria on one side, and the advancing Russian army on the other. Captain Humeniuk, an officer of Ukraines State Border Guard Service and the voice of the administration of the defense forces in the southern region of Ukraine, told The Daily Beast that the city needed enough volunteers to fill one brigadeand instead got enough to fill three.

So for the time being, Odesa lives in a state of wary hope. The chief commander of operations in the south, Maj-Gen Andriy Kovalchuk, has served in peacekeeping missions in Liberia and former Yugoslavia. Now Kovalchuk and other military authorities guard the city with care, explaining to its people why beaches have been mined and closed, and giving updates on the war twice a day. The citys restaurants and caf verandas are crowded, and although air-raid sirens howl several times a day, on any given day, a visitor can hear a band singing Ukrainian songs on the central Deribasovskaya Avenue, and jazz music playing in the garden of the Tolstoy familys house.

We are going to win this battle, like we did World War II, vows a Russian-speaking theater director named Anna, whose Jewish family went through the Nazi invasion. Before this war, she liked to say she had a Russian soul. But now she says: Odesa, the first Hero City of the USSR, will win this battle toobut this time, against Moscow.

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Putins Managed to Enrage His Last Supporters in Ukraine

A grain combine harvester collects wheat near Novoazovsk outside Mariupol, Ukraine. -/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A grain combine harvester collects wheat near Novoazovsk outside Mariupol, Ukraine.

As the week begins, here's a roundup of key developments from the past week and a look ahead.

Monday: As a ship loaded with Ukrainian grain left Odesa for the first time since the war began, there are hopes that it will be the first of many resuming the country's exports.

Tuesday: The trial of WNBA star Brittney Griner continues in Moscow.

Wednesday: ASEAN-led meetings get underway in Cambodia, where Ukraine will be on the agenda. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be among top diplomats gathering in Phnom Penh.

Friday: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to meet in Sochi, Russia.

July 25: Russia's Gazprom said it would reduce the amount of gas it sends through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity. On the same day, Russia announced it would quit taking part in the International Space Station after 2024.

July 26: European Union energy ministers agreed on an emergency deal to ration natural gas to help EU countries get through the coming winter.

July 27: On the same day that Brittney Griner's trial continued in Moscow, the U.S. proposed a prisoner swap in which Moscow would free Griner and Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine imprisoned in Russia, in exchange for the U.S. release of imprisoned Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

July 28: Russian missile strikes targeted Ukraine's Kyiv and Chernihiv regions on the same day that Ukrainian authorities announced an operation to liberate the occupied region of Kherson in the south.

July 29: Ukraine and Russia blamed one another for shelling that killed dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war in eastern Ukraine. Also, Blinken spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for the first time since the war began, urging Russia to accept the proposal aimed at bringing home Griner and Whelan. Blinken also pressed Russia on allowing Ukrainian grain exports.

July 30: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a mandatory evacuation of people in the eastern Donetsk region. Also, Gazprom cut off gas shipments to Latvia. Russia demands payment in rubles and has already stopped gas shipments to other EU countries after their refusal to do so.

July 31: Marking Russia's Navy Day, President Vladimir Putin approved a new naval doctrine highlighting the U.S. and NATO as the the biggest threats to Russia.

Who is Viktor Bout, the prisoner the U.S. may trade for Brittney Griner?

In the Russia-Ukraine war, drones are one of the most powerful weapons.

At 75, the CIA is back where it started countering the Kremlin.

Phoenix Mercury fans long for Brittney Griner's release from Russian captivity

It's official: The U.K. will host next year's Eurovision contest on behalf of Ukraine.

Russia's war in Ukraine is changing the world: See its ripple effects in all corners of the globe.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR's coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR's State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

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Russia-Ukraine war: A weekly recap and look ahead (Aug. 1) - NPR

With an ugly war of attrition in Ukraine threatening to drag on for months, some fear possible escalation and suggest Washington should start talking to Moscow about a cease-fire and ending the war, or offer proposals to foster diplomatic opportunities.

Ending the fighting may well require talks, but the decision to negotiate should lie with Kyiv.

The Russian army launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on three fronts on February 24. However, by the end of March, it had to abandon its goal of capturing the Ukrainian capital and withdrew from much of northern Ukraine. The Kremlin said its forces would then focus on Donbas, consisting of Ukraines easternmost oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk.

By mid-July, Russian soldiers had occupied most of Luhansk. That represented a symbolic victory, but in reality three months of grinding fighting gained little new territory. The Russian army, which has seen roughly 15,000 to 25,000 soldiers killed in action and lost much equipment, appears exhausted.

The Ukrainian military has also taken heavy losses but has been bolstered by flows of new arms from the West. Among other things, Russian war crimes have provoked sharp anger among Ukrainians and strengthened their resolve to resist.

Now hardly seems a propitious time for negotiations.

To begin with, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin show no sign of readiness to talk seriously. Russian officials articulated their war aims for Ukraine early on: denazification (of a government headed by a Jewish president), demilitarization, neutrality, recognition of occupied Crimea as Russian territory, and recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent so-called peoples republics.

In early July, Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev restated basically the same goals. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 20 said that Russia had broadened its military aims and would seek to seize territory beyond Donbas. He later added that Moscow sought to end the unacceptable regime in Kyiv.

The Kremlins goals remain unchanged Ukraines almost total capitulation despite the fact that Russias performance on the battlefield has fallen well short of expectations and could deteriorate as the Ukrainians take military actions such as systematically destroying Russian ammunition dumps. Do those who urge talks see space for any compromise that would not leave Ukraine in a substantially worse position than before the most recent invasion began in February?

Even a cease-fire presents peril for the Ukrainian side. It would leave Russian troops occupying large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, with no guarantee they would leave. The Ukrainians have learned from bitter experience. Cease-fires agreed in September 2014 and February 2015, supposedly to end the fighting in Donbas, left Russian and Russian proxy forces in control of territory that they never relinquished and did not fully stop the shooting. Moreover, the Russian military might use a cease-fire to regroup, rearm, and launch new attacks on Ukraine.

This is not to say that a cease-fire or negotiation should be ruled out. But, given the risks inherent in either course for Ukraine, the decision to engage in talks on a cease-fire or broader negotiations should be left to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government.

If Ukraines leadership were now to conclude that it should seek a settlement, Moscows unyielding negotiating demands would require that Kyiv consider concessions. They would be painful for the Ukrainian side and would almost certainly encounter stiff public opposition: A July poll showed that 84% of Ukrainians opposed any territorial concessions. That included 77% in Ukraines east and 82% in the south, the two areas where most fighting now occurs.

Any negotiation thus would be fraught with risk for Zelenskyy and his team. Only they can decide when or if it is time to talk. Battlefield developments and future military realities may affect the calculation in Kyiv. If Ukraines leaders choose to begin negotiations, the West should not hinder them, but the West also should not press them to negotiate before they see a net benefit in doing so. Western officials should be leery of opening any channel to Moscow that the Russians would seek to turn into a negotiation over the heads of the Ukrainians.

To be clear, this war has an aggressor, and it has a victim. Those who advocate that Washington talk to Moscow fear that, if the war continues, Russia might consider launching attacks on targets in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. One should not wholly exclude that possibility, but the Russian military has its hands full with Ukraine. It likely does not want to take on NATO directly as well.

The United States and NATO certainly have a major interest in avoiding direct military conflict with Russia. However, in order to minimize that risk, is it right to ask the Ukrainian government to make concessions to the aggressor, concessions that could reduce the size and economic viability of the Ukrainian state, that would provoke a sharp domestic backlash in the country, and that might not end the Russian threat to Ukraine?

One last point to weigh. If the West pressed Kyiv to accept such an outcome, what lesson would Putin draw should his stated desire to return Russias historic lands extend beyond Ukraine?

Read more:

Russia, Ukraine, and the decision to negotiate - Brookings Institution

The US announced on Monday a new tranche of weapons for Ukraines forces fighting Russia, including ammunition for increasingly important rocket launchers and artillery guns. The $550m package will include more ammunition for the high mobility advanced rocket systems otherwise known as Himars, as well as ammunition for artillery, national security council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said that Russia had destroyed six US-made Himars missile systems since the beginning of the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Three people have reportedly been killed by Russian shelling while evacuating in a minibus near Kherson, Ukraines military is reporting. Ukraines Operational Command South reported that three people died from the attack on the bus near Dovhove.

Turkeys representative at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul has said that the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets was expected to anchor at Istanbul on Tuesday night. At a briefing held at the JCC, general zcan Altunbulak said the course of the ship was going as planned. Another official said The plan is for a ship to leave every day. If nothing goes wrong, exports will be made via one ship a day for a while.

Ukraines state security service says it is investigating 752 cases of treason and collaboration. According to the agency, the greatest amount of cases have been documented in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

The United Nations secretary general, Antnio Guterres, has warned that a misunderstanding could spark nuclear destruction, as the US, Britain and France urged Russia to stop its dangerous nuclear rhetoric and behaviour.

Sabina Higgins, the wife of Irelands president, Michael D Higgins, has triggered a political row in Ireland by urging Russia and Ukraine to call a ceasefire and enter negotiations. Critics said the intervention amounted to Kremlin propaganda because it appeared to equate Moscows aggression with Kyivs fight for survival.

The US has accused Russia of using Ukraines largest nuclear power plant as a nuclear shield. US secretary of state Antony Blinken said Washington was deeply concerned that Moscow was now using the plant as a military base and firing on Ukrainian forces from around it and called Russias actions around the plant the height of irresponsibility.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 160 of the invasion - The Guardian

On Feb. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his people and the world that a special military operation was needed to right a series of wrongs in Ukraine and beyond. Russians in eastern Ukraine were victims of genocide, and the country was led by a Nazi regime. Beyond Ukraine, Putin said NATO had ignored repeated warnings to stop its eastward push.

It was time for an answer, the Russian leader said. That day, the troops went in.

It was a rambling speech, but its core message was captured in a few lines: The purpose of this operation is to protect people who have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.

For all the battlefield turns since that fateful day the early Russian onslaught and surprising Ukrainian resistance; the heavy Russian losses and subsequent shift to the eastern front we are no closer, five months later, to divining Putins aspirations for an endgame in Ukraine. He remains dismissive of Ukraines leaders and furious with NATO and the West even more so now than before and he rails often about his dreams of a Greater Russia. But we dont know whether Putin still believes victory requires taking the capital, Kyiv, and bringing about regime change in Ukraine nor how he measures those aims against the staggering toll of his military operation to date. We dont know to what extent he worries about Russian casualties, the occasional bubbling up of anti-war dissent, the exodus of Russian citizens or the economic punishments levied against his country.

Heres one thing we do know: Given the mission he articulated in February and what has happened since, Vladimir Putin could give a victory speech tomorrow. It would likely be a blend of fact, twisted fact and outright invention but Putin mixes reality and fantasy on a regular basis.

The Russian leader probably expected to declare victory in the early days of the war. He may well have had a speech prepared. In the runup to May 9 the Victory Day holiday in Russia the assumption was that Putin had to offer something like a victory address for the occasion. The problem was, he didnt have the goods. Now he is getting closer particularly when one allows for some typical Kremlin stretching of the truth.

Russia is hardly winning the war in Ukraine. But its forces have made gains since the Kremlin turned its military focus to the east and south, and the Russian position is appreciably better than it was on Victory Day. If Putin wished to stanch the bleeding of his armed forces and his countrys economy and perhaps even claim a kind of high ground after months of being branded globally as a genocidal war criminal, he could do something about it. He could call in the Kremlin cameras and media machine and announce to the world: Mission accomplished.

Yes, of course, Putin could declare victory, if he wished to, said Ksenia Kirillova, a former reporter for the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta and now an analyst of Russian media and propaganda. And he already has enough things that he could call completing the tasks of a special military operation.

Grid spoke to Russians and others versed in the ways the Kremlin, the Russian media and Putin himself communicate to their people and to the world. They imagined the speech Putin might give, how it might be received and the odds that he might deliver it anytime soon.

A Putin victory speech would not only mix fact and fiction; it would also likely cause an uproar and perhaps a reinvigorated resistance from Ukraine. But experts told Grid that Kremlin speechwriters would have no problem drafting an argument that Putins special military operation has succeeded.

Vasily Gatov, an expert in Russian media at the University of Southern California Annenberg Center, said the Russian leaders strongest point would be that he has pacified those regions of eastern and southern Ukraine.

If I was Putins speechwriter, I would offer him these possible narratives: We saved the people of Donbas and southern Ukraine. We secured their will for independence and affiliation with Greater Russia. The victory in this narrative is that those peoples republics are now liberated. They can now merge with Russia as they desired.

Kirillova agreed: Putins best argument, she said, is that he has accomplished the liberation of the Donbas, as Putin calls his operations in Ukraines Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and perhaps other territory on which, according to Russian propaganda, Russian people are oppressed.

Eurasia Group CEO Ian Bremmer noted in his July 25 newsletter the likelihood that Russia will soon move to annex these territories, formally incorporating Ukrainian land, citizens and resources into the Russian federation. At which point, Bremmer wrote, President Vladimir Putin gets to announce a win.

Former Russian TV host and Grid Special Contributor Stanislav Kucher said Putin and his propaganda apparatus would have no trouble listing achievements real and otherwise and selling them to the Russian people.

Theoretically, one can imagine Putin delivering a victory speech, Kucher told Grid. Saying something like, We have achieved our goals, we have brought back the east of Ukraine and Novorossiya (another term for the eastern territories). We have eliminated the Nazis, punished the corrupt Ukrainian government, and we have scared the *** out of Europe and America.

Such a speech would be helped by a certain straw-man factor: Putin could claim victory over enemies that never really existed. He can say that Russia has succeeded in the denazification of Ukraine because the problem as defined by Putin wasnt there in the first place. Grid and others have reported on the ways in which Putin has manipulated history and fact, creating a noxious stew of misinformation that casts Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and local Ukrainhian officials as Nazis and war criminals. As Kirillova noted, these tropes continue to be mainstays of Russian media and polling suggests a majority of the Russian public continues to believe them.

Gatov believes Putin could build upon another fiction the notion that the U.S. was helping Ukraine produce chemical and biological weapons and claim victory there as well.

He can say, We destroyed the potential to create and build deadly weapons that threatened our security. This narrative will stress that Russia achieved these outcomes without major efforts and still has a strong, now battle-hardened army to scare off enemies elsewhere.

Beyond Ukraines borders, Putin might claim successes on the geopolitical chessboard. He can argue with credibility that much of the world has stood with him (see China, India to a certain extent and various corners of the Global South), despite all the efforts by Europe and the U.S. to isolate his country. Russia has managed to keep its coffers stocked with revenues from oil and gas, among other commodities. In this vein, Kirillova said Putin would likely invoke a theme he has turned to often the liberation of Russia from the colonial Anglo-Saxon yoke, because Russia was able to survive the break with the West, and its economy withstood it.

Many made the point that the rhetorical framework Putin established namely, that the war isnt a war, but a special military operation, would afford him wiggle room in stepping back from the campaign.

Special military operation provides greater flexibility in case decisive victory has not been achieved, Gatov told Grid. It resembles the old Soviet Newspeak as when the (Soviet) invasion and war in Afghanistan was called international brotherly help for the Afghan people.

Here then, with the help of these Russians who understand how the Kremlin communicates, is a victory speech for the Russian president. (With apologies for the factual errors within).

My fellow countrymen!

I come to you to report that our nations Special Military Operation has ended. We have achieved our objectives. I am very proud of our armed forces and you should be as well.

We faced a serious threat and we have ended it. We have taken territory that belongs to our Russian brothers and sisters in the east and south of Ukraine. We have pacified and denazified the Donbas as I promised we would. We have restored order to these key regions. Our brethren there are embracing the armed forces of Russia in gratitude.

We have taught a powerful lesson to the Nazi puppet regime in Kyiv, and more important, we have sent a clear message to the members of NATO that they cannot trample with impunity upon our lands and our people and impose their decadent liberal values on our culture. NATO now understands that it cannot threaten Russian territory without a loud response.

We have vanquished the threat of Nazification.

We have stood strong in the face of unprecedented and unjust economic attacks against the Russian nation. Our economy is stronger and more self-sufficient than ever.

And while the U.S. and its stooges in NATO have made statements about isolating Russia and making Vladmir Putin a pariah well, as you can see, I am here, we are here, and we have friends all around the world who have stood with us, who have supported us. I do not believe pariah is a word you would choose when you consider that I have enjoyed meetings and dialogues with the leaders of China and India, Turkey and Iran these are, incidentally, some of the most important nations on earth, representing some of the worlds oldest and greatest civilizations and cultures.

In the end, it must also be said that we have shown restraint. We could have obliterated cities. We could have taken all of Ukraine. We could have used our nuclear weapons.

We are responsible global citizens. We chose not to do those things.

My fellow countrymen in less than six months, we have accomplished our mission. There is no more need for fighting and bloodshed. We call on the leaders of Ukraine to understand and to embrace an end to hostilities.

I thank you for your support and for your love of the Fatherland.

The real thing would of course be much longer. And again, much of it would be a work of fiction.

Russia has, in fact, obliterated cities. It did try, and it failed to take more Ukrainian land including the capital. Whatever messages are sent to NATO and Ukraine itself, both have been strengthened by Putins war. As Bremmer put it, If Putin invaded Ukraine because he was concerned about NATO encroachment, Russias security position over the next five years will be dramatically weaker on this score with 1,000 kilometers more direct NATO border to defend against, encirclement in the Baltic Sea and facing hundreds of thousands of battle-ready forward-deployed troops.

As for that ask of Ukrainians that they embrace an end to hostilities theres no chance of that at the moment.

As Kirillova put it, Dont ask me where is the logic in anything Putin says. But she and the others believe these are words and phrases he and his speechwriters might well employ.

Declaring victory now or in the near future would accomplish several things for the Kremlin.

It would bring pressure on Ukraine from some quarters to at least come to the bargaining table. There are already fractures in the European alliance and questions, as Joshua Keating reported recently, as to how long the world will stand With Ukraine. It might lead to a reversal of some economic sanctions, which are likely to have greater impact if the war drags on.

Its a long shot given the likely Ukrainian response but it might at least momentarily slow the hemorrhaging of Russias armed forces. Russian troop losses are somewhere between 15,000 (NATOs estimate) and 38,000 (Ukraines). Last week news leaked from a classified U.S. intelligence briefing in which the figure for killed and wounded Russian soldiers was given as 75,000. These are staggering counts, even at the low end.

From a public relations standpoint, the global support Putin has found would be strengthened and important on-the-fence nations (Turkey; India; Saudi Arabia) would likely pivot to firmer support for the Kremlin. Strangely, after all we have seen in the last five months, Putin could claim to occupy the high road. Having threatened a nuclear response to any who interfered with his military aims, he has taken no military action against NATO or its robust supply line of military equipment for Ukraine.

Within Russia itself, the experts suggested two possible outcomes: first, a high likelihood that the Russian public would buy in to all the arguments facts be damned. As Kirillova noted, they have already bought into far stranger fictional narratives about the war. On the other hand, there is the possibility that some Russians might wonder (quietly at least), given the level of sacrifice: Thats it? This is all we got, for all the sacrifice?

That latter point explains why many say Putin isnt ready to deliver the victory speech.

For one thing, Putin may think hes winning. And while there are a range of forecasts for the next phases of the war, he may believe there are more battlefield wins to be had.

Everything is going according to plan. Thats the line from Putin, Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a recent op-ed for the New York Times. Senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraines east, will achieve all its goals That might seem hard to believe, but its what the Kremlin seems to believe.

From a political standpoint, Kirillova and others believe the war suits Putins purposes at the moment.

Putin may be in no hurry with this, Kirillova told Grid. War is now beneficial to Putin. While the war is going on, she said, Putins high rating is ensured, the population lives in the mode of military mobilization, and therefore is ready to endure poverty and deprivation; the protest potential in such conditions is extremely low, and the authorities can justify any repressions by the laws of war.

Perhaps the most important question is the most difficult to answer: What is Putins endgame? Specifically, to what extent does he embrace a pair of goals far grander than the taking of territory: regime change in Kyiv and a new world order beyond?

Kucher doesnt believe Putin will deliver a victory speech until he has much more in hand. Putin is a gambler, he said. He is convinced that everyone will succumb to him. He will cut off gas to Germany, then he will hurt [Turkish President Tayyip] Erdogan with grain supplies, then the West will decide to surrender Ukraine, etc. thats his plan and thats what he hopes for. He is convinced that the West and the [United] States will allow him everything especially after the statements of [Henry] Kissinger and European politicians about the necessity and inevitability of territorial concessions.

Putins spoken goals have vacillated often, from the demilitarization and denazification of all of Ukraine, to the liberation of the Donbas. His threats against NATO and the West have been woven into all this. More generally, he has wavered from bellicose threats to opening windows for negotiations in one July 7 speech, he did both.

In January, Grids Joshua Keating wrote a piece under the heading: Invading Ukraine would be a terrible idea for Putin. He might do it anyway. Something of a reverse logic may be in play now: Giving a victory speech might be a smart way out; its doubtful Vladimir Putin will do it.

Thanks to Alicia Benjamin for copy editing this article.

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Putin could give a Ukraine victory speech tomorrow. Here's what it might say. - Grid

Stories of war are being told now by some of Ukraine's leading female artists at New York's Fridman Gallery, as well as a gallery in Kyiv. The women are activists as well as artists, and are responding in paint, photographs and videos to the Russian invasion, and earlier conflicts over the annexation of Crimea. The powerful, haunting works prove that art is not just about pretty pictures.

Lesia Khomenko, Max in the Army, 2022. Oil on canvas, 84.5 x 57.5 inches Lesia Khomenko hide caption

Lesia Khomenko, Max in the Army, 2022. Oil on canvas, 84.5 x 57.5 inches

Lesia Khomenko's portrait of her new husband Max shows one of the many Ukrainian men drafted to fight against the Russians. He'd been a musician and media artist before the war. He and Lesia were a couple. When Max entered the army, Lesia was able to leave the country.

Over the months of separation, he regularly sent her selfies. But during those months, she noticed changes in Max. "Now, he is totally in military uniform" she says. And she paints a new tension in him. There's a scowl on his face. He stands as straight as possible, saluting. His expression is serious determined and focused. His clothes are too big. "I wonder if I can still recognize him," she says.

Lesia spoke to NPR a day before she flew from New York back to Ukraine, for just a week-long visit. She'd felt she had to leave her country, even though it meant being away from Max. "It's too dangerous in Ukraine. I have a small daughter and I am very responsible for her. I can't live with her in Ukraine." Three times a day she'd had to run to the basement to hide from shelling: "You're filled with fear."

But with help from technology, she and Max were able to make the fear almost bearable. They got married online.

Other artists in the exhibition "Women at War" make works about history, politics, war and the pain and toll of it. They show the aftermath of rapes painful drawings of private parts, bloodied by aggression; a mother and small children at the foot of a filthy basement staircase; the forbidding image of a psychiatric hospital. Surrounded by shelling and death, the Ukrainian women make artworks.

"In every war, there was artistic life," says curator and art historian Monika Fabijanska, "either underground or above ground, wherever possible." Creating is an essential outlet. "Art allows you to process and name our feelings, and find other people who feel it and process it."

In drawings, film, even handwriting on scraps of bed linen, these artists are history's witnesses to the realities of war: its dailiness and the toll it takes.

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The Ukrainian women who make art in the face of war - NPR