Monthly Archives: August 2022

Cats in jackets going for a walk with their owners on Taranaki Maunga is one of New Zealand's biggest biodiversity chuckles in two decades.

But the Department of Conservation (DOC) is not amused, and rightly so. It's using the threat of a fine for the Auckland tourists as a way to educate people about the dangers of bringing pets into our protected reserves and our 13 treasured national parks.

Aotearoa has more than 10,000 protected areas, covering more than 8.6 million hectares (about 32% of our total land area).

As soon as you enter one of those areas your pet is no longer a pet it's a pest. But what else can't you take in? Here's what you need to know before you make your next trip.

READ MORE:* Shooting threat alleged after dog's entry refusal in Aoraki/Mt Cook National Park cafe* Signs and big fines no deterrent to dog owners in national park* Warning issued after overseas visitors filmed patting seal pup* Woman horrified to find man turned Department of Conservation hut into a 'brewery'

No, you can't take your cat. No, you can't take your dog. No, you can't take your pig. And no, you can't take your goldfish.

Leave them at home or leave them in a kennel. Otherwise, you could face a fine of up to $100,000.

Tom Lee/Stuff

New Zealands national parks are fragile ecosystems.

DOC spokesman Herb Christophers said threatened species can be wiped out by the arrival of just one pet that gets loose.

Cats and dogs, the most common companion animals, are natural predators even in their domesticated form, no matter how well trained they may be.

Christophers said dogs were invaluable for DOC in species management roles, but its specially trained dogs were muzzled when they were on the job in national parks.

"The Department of Conservation is continually dealing with feral cats and wild dogs not just in national parks but in many areas of high natural value."

One of the most flagrant breaches in Christophers' memory came in 2002. The owners of five ferrets took them on a yacht ride and then a leashed walk on environmentally sensitive Great Barrier Island.

Because of its isolation, Great Barrier is free of major introduced predators and DOC's Great Barrier area manager, Dale Tawa, said at the time he'd rushed to the beach after the report with his "heart in [his] mouth".

Those on the boat had been planning to stay for a week, and Tawa said he was horrified to think of the damage one ferret could do to wildlife if it escaped.

"They eat anything and everything," he said. Ferrets were banned as pets in New Zealand later that year.

Introduced animals are a problem, and so too are plants. Wilding pines continue to be a major issue in many national parks, particularly in Mackenzie Country and the central North Island.

Then there's heather in Tongariro National Park. Christophers says it was planted by a Scottish DOC ranger 100 years ago to provide a habitat for grouse and a taste of home.

Although the birds were never introduced, the plant flourished and was soon widespread through the parks red tussocklands.

"It's become the biggest weed this side of the black stump, the absolute bane of our lives," Christophers says.

While the introduction of seedlings is a far less common occurrence than a family pet being brought in, it's worth noting that you should never do it.

Take only photographs, leave only footprints. We all know this one. You can face big fines (once again up to $100,000) for littering or abandoning things like cars or planes in national parks.

Often it's not rubbish when you bring it in, but it is by the time you leave. If there's no bin around, or if it won't fit in the bin, just take it home with you.

Te Papakura o Taranaki (formerly Egmont National Park) is a hot spot for whiteware and weed clippings, and roughly two years ago, DOC uncovered a pile that really sucked 100 abandoned vacuum cleaners in Southland.

Mike Watson/Stuff

The Pouakai Circuit track in Te Papakura o Taranaki.

While DOC doesn't have much else that it can prosecute you for bringing into a national park, it goes without saying that you can't just bring anything.

National parks and conservation sites are often, understandably, sacred sites for local iwi.

In 2011, a group of 25 young climbers took a barbecue to the summit of the mountain but were later condemned for their actions, which were labelled a tapu offence.

Then in 2013, a group took a trampoline to the Pouakai Range, which also raised eyebrows.

Christophers said DOC has increased searching powers at national parks. That means rangers can stop and search your vehicle at any time if they believe you're breaching the National Parks Act you'd struggle to get away with bringing in something weird and threatening like a barrel of oil.

Weapons are another thing to leave at home.

"You probably can't park your nuclear submarines out at Abel Tasman. And putting intercontinental ballistic missiles on the top of Ruapehu that'd get people involved, I'd say."

Last but not least, Christophers, like so many of us, likes the quiet of the backcountry.

Mytchall Bransgrove/Stuff

Aoraki/Mt Cook. The quiet of the backcountry is one of its great allures.

Our national parks are one of the few places where it remains, though helicopter tours have eroded parts of it in recent years.

While it's not illegal to bring and play your portable sound systems, have a really long think about whether that's going to be the right thing to do.

Once youve done that, leave it at home.

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A guide to what you can't bring into New Zealand's national parks - Stuff

Thursday, 4 August 2022, 10:52 amPress Release: Athletics New Zealand

On an historic night for New Zealand athletics at theBirmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games, Hamish Kerr celebrated abrilliant gold medal in the mens high jump, Maddi Weschesnared bronze in the womens shot put and Zoe Hobbsfinished sixth up against a world-class field in thewomens 100m final.

In the mens high jump,Hamish Kerr proved a class apart to dethrone defendingchampion Brandon Starc of Australia with a best clearance of2.25m to become the first Kiwi gold medallist (or medallistof any colour) in the mens high jump at a CommonwealthGames.

The history-defining athlete, who earlier thisyear became the first New Zealander to win a global highjump medal with bronze at the World Indoor Championships inMarch, once again achieved another huge milestone momentwith a dominant display.

Hamish, the New Zealandrecord-holder with a best of 2.31m, looked in total controlclearing his opening height of 2.15m at the first time ofasking and maintained his flawless record with first timeclearances at 2.19m, 2.22m and 2.25m to pile the pressure onhis opposition. Looking relaxed throughout he spent largechunks of the competition chatting amiably to his fellowcompetitors.

Starc was the only athlete in the 13-manfield who could respond also soaring above 2.25m with hisfirst attempt, however as the Australian sustained someearly misses the amiable Auckland-raised but nowChristchurch-based athlete knew he was in control of thecompetition on countback.

As the bar was raised to2.28m the greater pressure was thrust upon the Australianjumper, who knew to dislodge the New Zealand champion fromgold he would have to make a successful clearance.

Thetruth Starc never came close, and although Hamish spoiledhis otherwise flawless record as he too missed out on thatheight with his three attempts, it did not matter one bit asthe Kiwi was crowned Commonwealth champion oncountback.

Tejaswin Shankar of India claimed bronzewith a best of 2.22m.

An elated Hamish said: Thisis unreal. I knew I came in with some pretty good form butat the same time to get it done tit is amazing. The stadiumis awesome, and I fed off that energy. Im inshock.

I was confident, but I knew there were someguys in that field who can jump pretty high, adds Hamish.I knew I couldnt take my foot off the accelerator, soI was looking towards the next jump. As the other guys thenstarted to falter, I could see that I was in a pretty goodposition.

I back myself (to perform well in bigcompetitions) and I think I am a real competitor. I love thesport, I love jumping and I love jumping in front of a crowdso tonight definitely got me going.

It has been along year for me, and Ive been away from New Zealandsince May, which is the longest stint Ive ever had awayfrom home. That has created its challenges. My coachwasnt able to come with me for a quite a while because hehad Covid, so Ive been chasing form a little bit but toget it done is a massive relief.

Maddi Weschemaintained New Zealands incredible shot put tradition bywinning a bronze medal in a drama-filled climax to thecompetition inside a packed and buzzing AlexandraStadium.

The 23-year-old Aucklander, who last monthset a PB of 19.50m to place seventh in the WorldChampionships, took early control of the competition with animpressive opener of 18.84m.

The former World U20champion could not extend on that in round two, hurling themetal ball out to 18.54m but she maintained her position inprovisional gold as some of her main rivals struggled tofind their rhythm.

However, an 18.98m put by defendingchampion Danniel Thomas-Dodd elevated the Jamaican into topspot in round three as the Kiwi produced a best of17.86m.

Maddi unleashed what looked a huge throw inround four but lost her balance out of the circle andunfortunately registered a foul, and with no change to theoverall picture she remained in provisionalsilver.

The medal positions picture remained static inround five as Maddi registered a further foul, althoughWorld Championship fourth place finisher Sarah Mitton ofCanada, who had up until that point endured a below-parcompetition, was showing signs of finding her rhythmpowering the shot out to 18.29m in round five.

And itwas Mitton who turned the competition upside down in thefinal stanza, as the 20m plus thrower uncorked a 19.03meffort to move into gold relegating Maddi intobronze.

Neither the Kiwi - with a final effort of18.48m - nor Thomas-Dodd could respond to the challenge, butMaddi had the huge consolation of picking up her maideninternational senior medal.

It was also New Zealand12th ever medal in a womens shot put adding to the sevengold medals and four silver medals won at previous editionsof the Commonwealth Games.

It was a really goodopener (of 18.84m) I thought I would climb from there butIm not going to complain with a bronze medal

Thecrowd was crazy. I dont think Ive ever competed in acrowd like it, you just have to thrive off it. Id comeback to this atmosphere any day. I have at least a couplemore years to grow as an athlete, but I Im gettingthere.

Zoe Hobbs enjoyed another thunderous nightof sprinting as the New Zealander speedster finished sixthin a world-class final of the womens 100m.

TheKiwi, who last month reached the semi-finals at the WorldChampionships and recorded an Oceania record of 11.08, hadearlier impressed in her semi-final finishing second in11.15 - just 0.10 behind Olympic champion ElaineThompson-Herah - to become the first Kiwi since Briar Toopto reach a womens Commonwealth 100m final for 32years.

Zoe, who time and time again over the past sixmonths or so has been the master of the seeminglyimpossible, looked calm and composed ahead of the finalwhich featured six sub-11 second performers.

Blitzingout of the blocks and making an impressive start the firsthalf of the race the Taranaki-raised athlete was in medalcontention until the stellar field started to pile on thepressure in the latter stages.

Retaining her cool theKiwi maintained her form to cross the line in sixth in 11.19behind Thompson-Herah who proved too good for the restrecording 10.95 (+0.4m/s) 0.06 clear of silver medallistJulien Alfred of St Lucia. Englands Daryll Neita wonbronze in 11.07.

I am ecstatic, said Zoepost-race. Just to make the final was incredible. Thefield out there was amazing and to run against the Olympicchampion at a Commonwealth Games was unreal. To finishsixth, I was so stoked.

My starts have been goingreally well, and I just want to compose myself in the last50m which is where Ive been losing it. The idea was toget that start and relax through the second half of therace. I think it paid off as it allowed me to not tightenup.

Zoe, who admits she has had to contend with arecent bout of Covid after travelling back from the WorldChampionships a couple of weeks ago, added of featuring inher first major international final: It is quiteoverwhelming and a new experience, but I loved theatmosphere it was so cool to be a part of.

TwoKiwis are in action in tonights session (NZtime)

10.05pm Keeley OHagan Womens HighJump qualification Pool B

10.34pm Sam Tanner Mens 1500m heat two

For full results go here

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Hamish Flies High To Achieve New Zealand First | Scoop News - Scoop

Astronauts on the International Space Station have shared a birds eye view of Aotearoa without (mostly) its long white cloud.

The station took about three minutes to track from the west side of the lower South Island to the east of the North Island on Monday, passing over the West Coast, Wellington and Hawkes Bay on its way.

Video tweeted by ISS Above a device that streams live views of the earth showed the view from the station as it flew over above the country.

The snow-capped Southern Alps can be clearly seen, and eventually the lower and eastern edges of the North Island are also in shot.

READ MORE:* 'Kia ora' from space: ISS has bird's-eye view of Northland, Auckland and Gisborne* Stunning video of South Island captured by International Space Station* Beautiful clear video of North Island from International Space Station

ISS Above

The International Space Station travelled over the country on Monday, enjoying a birds-eye view of the North and South islands.

According to MetService, a west to southwest low brought clear skies across the country on Monday, making it possible for the country to be seen so clearly from space.

Fresh snow had also recently fallen across much of both islands, which is visible in the video.

The ISS Above Twitter account said that the three-minute video shows one of the longest passes the space station can get across the country when passing from the west coast to the east coast, the trip can be as short as 30 seconds.

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International Space Station captures stunning views of New Zealand - Stuff

New Zealand go into this years Rugby Championship as the reigning champions, but, potentially for the first time since the Rugby Championship began in 2012, they are not favourites.

They won last years tournament with a game to spare but, after losing to South Africa in the final round, New Zealand have had a disappointing 12 months. Last months home series defeat to Ireland, who had previously never won in New Zealand, means that the All Blacks go into the Rugby Championship having lost four of their last five matches. Head coach Ian Foster probably needs a good tournament to stay in the job.

He has to navigate a difficult start though, with two away matches against world champions South Africa. While the Springboks did not have the best of competitions last year as they finished third, and were not at their best in the home series win against Wales in July, New Zealands poor form and both matches against the All Blacks being at home gives South Africa the edge.

Australia impressed in the Rugby Championship last year, beating South Africa twice. With both their games against the Boks at home they could pose a problem again, but like New Zealand the Wallabies have not had the best year, having only won one game since.

Argentina did not win a single game in last years Rugby Championship. Coming off a home series win against Scotland last month, Michael Cheikas Pumas will hope for an improvement this year.

(All times BST)

There are four changes for New Zealand from the third test against Ireland. Lock Brodie Retallick is unavailable due to a fractured cheekbone, so Scott Barrett takes his place. Winger Sevu Reece, hooker Codie Taylor, and prop Angus Ta'avao all started in Wellington, but drop from the match-day 23 entirely.

New Zealand: Jordie Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Caleb Clarke, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane, Akira Ioane, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Angus Ta'avao, Samisoni Taukei'aho, George Bower.

Replacements: Dane Coles, Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Tupou Vaa'i, Shannon Frizell, Finlay Christie, Richie Mo'unga, Quinn Tupaea.

South Africa have made three changes from their third test against Wales. Kurt-Lee Arendse replaces Cheslin Kolbe on the wing, who is recovering from a broken jaw. Faf de Klerk comes in at scrum half for Jaden Hendrikse, and Malcolm Marx starts at hooker over Bongi Mbonambi.

South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Trevor Nyakane.

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Salmaan Moerat, Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Jaden Hendrikse, Willie le Roux.

Australia have suffered a massive blow as Samu Kerevi has been ruled out for the entire Championship, after the centre sustained a knee injury while playing sevens at the Commonwealth Games. Hooker Dave Porecki will miss the first match against Argentina after being ruled out with a concussion, while props Angus Bell and Scott Sio will also be unavailable due to injury. However, fly-half Quade Cooper and winger Jordan Petaia have recovered from their respective calf and concussion injuries, while lock Darcy Swain is available following his suspension.

Argentina can recall experienced fly-half Nicols Sanchez, who got injured in the first test against Scotland, and scrum-half Toms Cubelli to a team that is getting to grips with new former Australia coach Chiekas style.

The final round is on Saturday 24 September. New Zealand host Australia in Auckland, while Argentina travel to Durban to face South Africa.

Last year New Zealand had already wrapped up the Rugby Championship before the final round, after beating South Africa 19-17 in the penultimate round. However, the Springboks would beat the All Blacks 31-29 a week later to end their campaign on a high.

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Rugby Championship 2022: Fixtures, team news and how to watch on TV - The Telegraph

Juniper is a drama with black comic edges about a fragmented family, and the unexpectedly life-affirming influence of its particularly tetchy matriarch. In the lead role is Charlotte Rampling, an actor blessed with an epically scornful side eye capable of withering a vase of flowers from across a room.

The film relies in no small degree on Rampling's ability to deliver intensity from small gestures, because for most of the time she's nearly immobile, rendered almost inert by a broken leg and a mysterious underlying health condition, while her temper is inflamed by copious amounts of gin served to her in large glass jugs.

The first feature from New Zealand writer-director Matthew JSaville (not to be confused with the Australian filmmaker Matt Saville), Juniper plays on the conventions of movies about families thrust together in trying circumstances, who learn to get over their differences only after some excruciating trial and error.

In particular, it's about a cross-generational connection between Ruth and her grandson Sam (George Ferrier), a suicidal teen who attends a nearby private school and has never recovered from the death of his mother.

Sam's athletic good looks and crown of golden hair give off the aura of a confident private-school jock, but this is a film where appearances deceive, and Sam is troubled in his privilege while Ruth, in turn, is the unlikely figure to pull him out of his malaise.

Set in the 90s, the film unfolds in a grand, if unkempt house somewhere green and leafy in New Zealand. This family is wealthy, clearly, and when Ruth arrives from her home in England after a considerable absence and in failing health, it initially appears like she might be the direct link to a moneyed bloodline in the Old Country.

Ruth has an unconventional past, as a war correspondent who once travelled the globe witnessing some of the best and worst of humanity. The experience scarred her, we will learn, but it also earned her valuable wisdom.

Her drinking, as well as her bullying, seem to be a manifestation of some sort of PTSD, long left simmering and unaddressed. Her grandson, who is left to help look after her while his father (an excellent but mostly off-screen Marton Csokas) is called away to England, becomes the chief target of her rancour.

The two are destined to become unlikely friends, but it takes time. As often occurs in scripts about grumpy old people and their influence on teenagers with their lives ahead of them, Ruth's abrasiveness serves a purpose, even if it's not initially clear.

Hal Ashby's 1971 absurdist black comedy Harold and Maude dealt with some of these cross-generational currents including teen depression with a little more imagination and less predictability. It would have been nice if Saville's film didn't conform quite so obediently to the redemptive notes of its final act.

But Rampling makes it worth watching, even if you sense where it's all heading. The role recalls her performance in another predominantly housebound film, Francois Ozon's 2003 mystery Swimming Pool, where she played an irritable British author trying to write her next novel, clashing with the young, feisty daughter of her French publisher.

Saville doesn't opt for any of that film's dreamy Hitchcockian intrigue, but he does exploit the house's rambling grandness, with its shadowy rooms and thresholds that offer views onto the verdant, slightly Gothic New Zealand countryside.

Downbeat indie rock and subtle zoom lenses help build an atmosphere of melancholy and cloistered tension, which extends to glimpses of Sam's posh high school with its dark hallways and neurotic orderliness.

Saville succeeds in creating an emotional authenticity to Ruth and Sam's difficult relationship, too, although it's a pity he doesn't linger in their mutually distrustful stage for longer.

As Rampling guides the film into its eventual emotional thaw, along the way she displays a range that occasionally surprises in one especially poignant scene dragging herself ungracefully across the floor to get to a jug of booze.

Rampling is one of the great actors of her generation who remains a vital presence in anything she does. Quintessentially English but inexorably linked to European cinema (she's lived and worked in France for decades) she possesses a sharpness and nuance that have never deserted her through the various stages of her career.

After starting out as a model, she had her first roles in English movies during the swinging 60s before moving to the continent, becoming synonymous with the 70s peak of European auteur cinema in films such as Visconti's The Damned and Liliana Cavani's The Night Porter.

Her work ethic and versatility have underwritten a prolific career since, and despite her professional Eurocentrism, she gained an Academy Award nomination for the 2015 drama 45 Years, and is continuing her role in the Hollywood behemoth Dune (part two releases next year), where she brings a welcome gravitas.

At the centre of this modest, likeable New Zealand drama, she emanates a rich, layered sense of character. If you consider that Saville barely gives the audience much more than a few mocked up photos from Ruth's past, and just a couple of backstory anecdotes, it's a tribute to Rampling's subtly embodied acting that the character emerges so fully formed.

As shadows of regret and anger in her performance give way to warmer accents of love and kindness, not to mention a rascally appetite for fun, she makes the film's slightly worn conceit believable, and even inspires a lingering fondness.

Juniper is in cinemas now.

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Juniper benefits from Charlotte Rampling's layered performance as a grandmother grappling with mortality - ABC News

A general view of a cricket ball

(Getty Images)

Follow live coverage of Netherlands vs New Zealand from the New Zealand in Netherlands 2022 today.

The ICC Test Championship sees nine teams compete across a two-year cycle of matches before a two-team final decides the winner. The inaugural competition was won by New Zealand after a thrilling victory over India in June 2021.

The 50-over World Cup is far older and has been competed for since back in 1975. Australia are the record winners having run out victorious on five occasions (1987, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2015). England took the 2019 crown after a dramatic Ben Stokes-inspired super-over win over New Zealand at Lord's.

The shortest form of the game sees teams compete in Twenty20. The newest format has been an instant global hit with a number of hugely-lucrative competitions massively popular all over the world. Australia are reigning world champions having taken victory in the 2021 tournament.

Follow all the latest live coverage of today's match in the live blog below:

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Netherlands vs New Zealand LIVE: Cricket score and updates from New Zealand in Netherlands 2022 - The Independent

Stats NZ review today released its review into a Ministry of Health population dataset widely criticised for under-counting vaccination coverage among Mori and Pacific people. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

New Zealand's Covid-19 vaccination coverage rates are about to drop yet that's something being welcomed by experts who've long called for finally-announced data improvements.

The Ministry of Health has confirmed it's changing the way it reports on vaccination rates, following a new Stats NZ review into a population dataset widely criticised for under-counting coverage among Mori and Pacific people.

That dataset was called Health Service Utilisation 2020, or HSU 2020, which captured all people who'd used the health system in 2020 with an age cut-off at June 30 that year.

Because it had been known to undercount Mori in particular a group that used health services less frequently, and sometimes misclassified under other identities experts have questioned whether ministry reporting accurately reflected actual coverage rates among Mori.

That was a major worry - given Mori and Pasifika people were more than twice as likely to be hospitalised with Covid-19 and one singled out in a critical December finding by the Waitangi Tribunal.

In May, the Herald's data team revealed similar issues with the HSU data, finding the ministry's total of "fully vaccinated" people over the age of 12 95.2 per cent to be higher than the figure produced using Stats NZ's December 2021 population estimates, which came to 91.8 per cent.

Today, Public Health Agency's deputy director-general Dr Andrew Old announced the ministry was making several improvements to its dataset which itself was to be replaced next week with an updated set for 2021.

This would add 233,000 people to the pool, resulting in the two-dose coverage of the eligible population aged over 12 falling from 95 to 90 per cent.

Among Mori, coverage rates will drop from 88 per cent to 83 per cent, and for Pacific peoples, from 97 per cent to 89 per cent.

But Old pointed out this didn't mean the total number of vaccinations had dropped.

"Put simply, it's the same number of people vaccinated, but we're now dividing that by a bigger number."

Along with being refreshed every six months, there'd be two other key changes to the ministry's vaccination dataset.

Someone who'd had two doses would now no longer be considered "fully vaccinated", but had received their primary course while the reporting would also reflect peoples' current ages, rather than that at the time of their last vaccination, which would give more information about booster eligibility.

With one exception, Old said the ministry had either implemented the improvements suggested in Stats NZ's review, or was in the process of doing so.

That report, which investigated the methodology behind the ministry's wider HSU dataset, confirmed issues with ethnicity differences in the HSU.

"Careful examination" was needed to see whether the lower representation of Mori was down to systemic issues or "genuine reporting choices" by people using services.

It also flagged issues with age-based counting in the 2020 HSU, although noted these would be addressed in the updated set.

While the review acknowledged HSU came with limitations, it also noted its advantages.

One was a "consistency of reporting" of Mori and other ethnic groups in the numerator compared with the population denominator including in vaccination rates.

"This use is consistent with Stats NZ's advice that customers should validate the consistency of the numerator with the denominator when undertaking calculations by ethnicity."

Mori health researcher Dr Rawiri Taonui said the review and the ministry's new changes didn't address all of his concerns namely with how Mori deaths and hospitalisations were being presented but he was nonetheless happy to see progress.

"It's good to see this update because, at the end of the day, the HSU is two years out of date and it should have been updated annually."

Covid-19 modeller Dr Dion O'Neale similarly welcomed today's announcements particularly that there'd be six-monthly updates.

But he questioned why this hadn't been done earlier and why those 233,000 extra people hadn't been gradually added to the vaccination coverage dataset as they were discovered, rather than all at once.

"There were some easy wins that could have been made along the way that didn't require revising the entire HSU, which would have meant our numbers were up to date at the time."

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Covid-19: Why a coming drop in NZ's vax rates is good news - New Zealand Herald

In the middle of a major Covid outbreak, mitigations such as masks stop infections and help save lives. But over a longer period of time, the maths suggest the effects of public health controls may be much less pronounced. KEITH LYNCH explains.

The above may sound troubling.

But everything you're about to read is informed by the key statistic that defines the trajectory of a Covid outbreak, the Reproductive (or R) number. You've likely heard this mentioned over the past two years. It came up frequently at last year's 1pm press conferences when Delta infiltrated Auckland.

A simple rule of thumb defines Covids future: when the R number is above 1, an outbreak is growing. When its below, its fading.

READ MORE:* Covid-19 NZ: The coronavirus pandemic will never really be over (but it is changing)* Covid-19 NZ: What's going on with the current Omicron wave?* Covid-19 NZ: Why the rising tide of cases doesn't tell the whole story

There are several iterations of R. R0, or the basic R number, outlines how many people, on average, an infected person would pass the virus on to in a population with absolutely no immunity.

This number is important because it tells you just how infectious a disease is and therefore how difficult it is to control. The first iteration of Covid was thought to have an R0 of about 3. Delta's was thought to be about 6.

R0 also tells us what proportion of a susceptible population needs to catch the virus before a Covid wave subsides, University of Auckland computational biologist Dr David Welch explains.

This brings us back to population or herd immunity, a term you likely heard in 2020.

As the Mayo Clinic in the US outlines: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected not just those who are immune.

Permanent herd immunity is not possible with Covid, because our protection against infection wanes over time.

But Covid waves end once enough people are infected and (for a period at least) the virus has nowhere to go.

I'll illustrate how this dynamic works using an example from Welch.

"If R is 2 at the start of an outbreak, meaning each case on average transmits to two others, by the time half of the population has been infected and has recovered, the virus will only transmit to one other.

"That is because it tries to infect two people but finds that, on average, one has already recovered and cannot be reinfected. In this example, the R number is now effectively 1 and infections will start to fall."

In the above example, the R is 2. If it were 6 or 8, a whole lot more people need to be infected before you reach that temporary immunity tipping point. (Well get back to this.)

R doesnt tell us how deadly a virus is. If a virus imparted no symptoms at all it wouldn't matter how infectious it was. But that's clearly not the case with Covid.

Putting a number on Omicron subvariant BA.5s R0 at this stage of the pandemic is close to impossible as its spreading in populations with some immunity. A number of those I spoke to for this piece suggested Omicron's R0 wasn't that far off Deltas.

Four Australian academics recently published a piece where they estimated BA.5s R0 was in the range of 6 to 10. (In recent weeks, a claim that BA.5 had an R0 of 18.6 did the rounds. This isnt true.)

No.

What we can better determine these days is Re. This tells us how many people an infected person passes the virus on to in real-world conditions where spread is constrained through immunity or public health measures that change behaviour (such as masking or gathering limits). So you start with R0 and end up with Re.

This number changes over time.

Unsplash/Stuff

Long-term Covid restrictions are likely to be much less effective than many people think.

Back in March 2020, New Zealand knocked the Re below 1 by shutting the borders and locking down. Therefore, Covid was eliminated.

However, no country, other than China, has been able to knock the Re below 1 for sustained periods and avoided large outbreaks since the emergence of the Omicron variant.

You may be asking: how did New Zealand manage to keep Delta cases well under wraps over Christmas 2021 if it has a comparable R0 to Omicron?

The answer boils down to immunity. Omicron and its offspring may well be more transmissible than Delta, but its key advantage is its ability to sidestep our immune response.

The reason New Zealand enjoyed a relatively normal Christmas in 2021, even though Delta was in the community, was primarily down to mass vaccination reducing the spread of the virus.

Omicron spread like wildfire a month or so later (despite tighter restrictions) because it could evade that vaccine-induced immunity.

Imagine on one side there's the virus (defined by its R0) and on the other there's our efforts to fight back.

Ideally, countries want to stop a virus like Covid in its tracks, which means pushing the R number below 1 via public health measures. Just like we did in 2020, using lockdowns and closed borders.

We did the same around Christmas 2021 without lockdowns, with vaccination subbing in likely keeping R well below 1.

The game changed entirely with the emergence of Omicron and its ability to evade the protection against infection (but thankfully not serious illness) brought on by what was previously our best player vaccination.

This has led to an unpleasant Covid paradox. We are currently relying on infections to stop infections.

As Professor Michael Fuhrer of the School of Physics at Monash University in Australia puts it: An infection wave isn't like an ocean wave (once you dodge it, it is past) the infection wave ends because of infections.

This is the reality of 2022 we had hoped vaccine-induced immunity would take the place of millions of infections to keep Re close to 1.

As I mentioned, Omicron's high R0 means A LOT of people need to be infected before an outbreak settles down, and the Re falls below 1.

This dynamic has prompted a number of experts to point out that, over longer periods of time, public health measures now have a limited impact on Covid spread.

But at the same time others (internationally and in New Zealand) continue to call for a high suppression strategy to fend off Covid-19.

The argument goes: if we wear masks, isolate when were sick and breathe cleaner air, the horrors of this pandemic can be somewhat squashed.

Yet, as Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Adam Kucharski points out, it'd be good for the public to know what these appeals actually mean.

Kucharskis opinion is that many proposals for suppression (where Omicrons R number is pushed below 1 and Covid dies out) are actually just mitigation (where the R number decreases but remains above 1).

I know this appears awfully academic. It's not. If the R number cant be pushed down below 1, Covid will continue to spread until a proportion of the population is infected.

I didnt say that.

While we seemingly can't push the R number below 1 in the midst of an Omicron onslaught without infections, we can blunt it somewhat.

And again ... the higher the R0 or the more infectious a virus, the more people who need to catch it before you reach a level where enough are immune, and the virus has nowhere to go.

Ideally you want to infect as few people as possible to reach that point, particularly in a wave like this winter where hospitals are under severe stress.

One way is to gradually infect people, doing the best job of flattening that curve as you can, up until you reach that threshold, Dr Stephen Kissler, an infectious disease expert from Harvard University, tells me.

And the complete opposite strategy is to let it rip where you have a big surge, and eventually youll reach that (temporary) herd immunity threshold, but youll actually surpass it.

If a wave peaks at a lower point, fewer people are infected as it retreats.

In both of these scenarios, the population achieves the immunity threshold, but the former means far fewer people are infected, which, of course, results in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Flattening the curve essentially means restraining the Re as close to 1 as possible.

This can be done by bringing about immunity through vaccination or other via public health measures. Masks certainly have a role to play in any Covid duel.

How effective are masks then? Covid modeller Professor Michael Plank, of the University of Canterbury, pointed to a study from May looking at data from six continents that found (realistic and good) mask wearing could lead to a 19% drop in R.

Key takeaway: when were in the midst of a major wave, public health measures including masking can reduce sickness and save lives.

Over a longer period of time, the maths tell us the effects of public health controls are likely much less pronounced.

If countries cannot push the R number below 1 for a long period of time that is, they can only mitigate, not suppress, Covid then infections are essentially being delayed, not avoided.

Those New Zealanders who have evaded Covid so far aren't home and hosed. They are depending on their behaviour, of course more likely to catch it in the next wave.

Now, you might be screaming at me, saying, Keith! The R number only reached about 1.3 during the recent BA.5 wave. Surely we can knock off a measly 0.4.

But youre forgetting something. The only reason the R number hasnt been higher in recent weeks was because of all our immunity.

Ill explain this dynamic.

Imagine New Zealand achieved the impossible and managed to eliminate Covid again and keep it out for several years.

The problem would then be that in 2026 wed essentially be starting afresh with Covid. When Covid came back, the R number would once again be about 5 or so not 1.3 because our collective protection against infection would have vanished.

Of course, in real life we wont lose all our immunity in one clean homogenous block; itll wane unevenly over time.

Yet the quandary remains the same: we are now essentially reliant on immunity at this point mostly brought on by infections to get Omicrons R number down.

Numbers from Plank help illustrate the dilemma.

Lets say the current iteration of Omicron has an R0 number of 5. Across a population this means 80% will need to be infected to get the Re back to 1, Plank says. (And if immunity only lasts about a year, 80% will need to get infected each year.)

Now imagine New Zealand masks up very well and manages to bump the R number down to 4 (a 20% drop). An R number of 4 still means 75% of the population need to be infected every year to push the Re back down to 1.

Plank uses the following (admittedly imperfect) analogy.

It's a bit like being strapped to a pole with a bungee rope. Walking forward gets you further away from the pole but not as much as you'd like because some of your energy gets taken up in stretching the rope.

If Omicron's R0 is actually 8, then 87.5% need to be immune to bring Re to 1. Then a 20% reduction from mask wearing takes the R to 6.4, meaning 84.4% of people need to be infected. Therefore, a 20% reduction via masking has even less of an impact.

This, as Plank outlines, is where the maths of endemic infectious disease is quite cruel in the face of attempts to reduce the average prevalence of a highly infectious pathogen: some of the benefit of the intervention gets sucked up in compensating for the reduced level of immunity.

British Covid modeller James Ward put it like this: Actions taken to reduce transmission (ie lower R0) may have surprisingly weak effects on total infection rates. This is because they reduce infections, but also mean that more people are then susceptible, which pushes infection levels back up.

The net effect is still a reduction in total infections, but a much smaller one than youd expect.

Lets take a break for a moment here. I want to make a few things clear: masks and mitigations still have an impact.

Wearing a mask, particularly a good one, will reduce the chances of you catching Covid over a particular period of time.

As public health expert Professor Michael Baker pointed out in a recent interview with Stuff: If people isolated perfectly and wore masks perfectly, the pandemic would stop. If everyone did them well, the pandemic would stop or would trickle along at a very low rate.

At the same time we need to acknowledge people dont behave perfectly.

Baker also makes the following very valid point: While masks are imperfect, we have to use all the tools because we have limited options.

When taking a birds eye view of Covid battle strategy, we cant lose sight of the realities for New Zealanders who could get seriously sick or die. But at the same time, at a population level New Zealand should be aware of what the maths tell us about the future.

It would, of course, be much better to knock the R number below 1 via masking, working from home, better sick leave, ventilation and vaccination. And some will make the argument we can do that.

Baker also makes the argument that mitigations bring other benefits for example, suppressing the flu, which is significantly less transmissible than Omicron yet still kills a lot of people.

It may be that the cost-benefit equation of masking or ventilation still makes sense particularly in specific high-risk places like rest homes.

It may be that the reduction from 80% of people getting infected to 75% getting infected as in Planks model above is worth the cost.

It may also be the case that delaying some Covid infections, even if its only over a relatively short period, is beneficial particularly if new vaccines or treatments are imminent, Welch says.

And we know masks and other mitigations can certainly flatten larger peaks, protecting the health system.

But its becoming increasingly challenging to make the case that such measures will have a transformational impact on Covid that theyll push the R number below 1 in the long-term given what Covid now is and what weve seen around the world.

So while masking may not be very onerous in a population, public health professionals and politicians will need to ask is it worth spending huge sums on, say, ventilation if it turns out it will only reduce spread by, say, 20%. Maybe it should be spent somewhere else?

Fuhrer put it this way in a recent social media post: Suggesting there's some simple magic bullet with negligible impact to normal life, and all we need to do is care enough to do it, is highly misleading.

The reality is pushing Re below 1 is a bit of a red herring, Plank says. Right now, yes, its below 1 but again only because of immunity.

The key issue is that the longer Re stays below 1, the harder it gets to keep it there because there is less and less immunity in the population. The bungee starts pulling you more and more strongly back towards the pole.

So where does that leave us?

With a necessity for immunity. And right now thats being brought on by infection. Itd be much better if it was brought on by improved and regular vaccination.

Read more here:

Covid NZ: Why long-term Covid restrictions are less effective than advertised - Stuff

MARK TAYLOR/Stuff

Gloria Boulton talks about her husband Harley

Harley Boulton exceeded everyones life expectancy expectations after being one of New Zealands early heart operation patients.

The 79-year-old died in Hamilton on July 10, after 55 years of marriage to Gloria.

Harley was one of the first Kiwis to have heart surgery in 1964, when he was operated on by the late Sir Brian Barratt-Boyes at Greenlane Hospital.

Harley had undiagnosed rheumatic fever which resulted in the pericardium around the heart setting like concrete when he was 20-years-old.

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Hed previously led a normal life which saw him pig hunting and swimming at Taumarunuis Olympic pool.

He spent nine months in hospital waiting for the operation, with Harley describing himself as one who could no longer move like a young man, but like someone who was 100-years-old.

Having been given a 50-50 of success, Harley went under Barratt-Boyes knife, he was on the table for 7 and a half hours to have the calcium build-up removed from around his heart.

The operation cut across the chest rather than down the chest as it is done these days.

It wasnt until Harley was in his late 60s, having since moved to Hamilton, that he found out the extent of the operation and the unexpected run of life none of the medics thought hed be able to achieve.

And his heart was being held in the correct position by strings of sinew.

supplied

Harley Boulton worked on all types of diesel vehicles over the years

Gloria, who he met at the start of 1967, said the pair were married by the end of year and she soon had to look after him.

If he did anything juddery he would be sick in bed, so I wouldnt let him mow the grass, cut the hedge or dig the gardens, I took over all that too.

I liked it when he cooked meals, he would cook beautiful meals, and run me a bath after I had finished working outside.

Harley worked on diesel vehicles as an engineer, which took the family to the Cook Islands for three and half years, as well as Papua New Guinea and a stint in Fiji.

He was sent over to the Cook Islands to design and build a garage for all land vehicles attached to the new airport. Which included two fire engines and a rescue boat.

He had to fix anything that had a diesel engine, Gloria said.

He started getting sick at 40 year-old, and he was in and out of hospital. Eventually it was found the sinews holding his heart in position were breaking, meaning the heart was slipping out of position.

Harley never grew tired of fixing things. Gloria said he had a Morris 1948 car which he gradually put together in Hamilton.

It was called a cruiser, air conditioned - the top went back, and he had a winder and the windscreen went out. Its now in a museum in Auckland - because old cars like that you need to keep maintaining them.

The couple have five children: Timothy, Shane, Phillip, Keren and Terepai, along with 13 grandchildren and five great-grandchildren.

We had his 79th Birthday on the July 6 and the kids did a really lovely job, sat us like King and Queen, and they started discussing their memories of Papua New Guinea and Cook Islands where we had lived together.

Boulton was farewelled in Hamilton on July 27.

Continued here:

Harley Boulton, one of New Zealand's early heart patients farewelled - Stuff