Monthly Archives: June 2022

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This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Today's newsletter is by Emily McCormick, a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

The Federal Reserve is working hard to bring down inflation, raising interest rates at the fastest pace in nearly 30 years.

Recently, some analysts have begun to explore the idea that inflation may moderate in the coming months.

But this decline likely won't be due to the efforts of the Powell Fed.

It increasingly looks like markets mistook [the] 'bullwhip' effect of supply chain (including food) for secular inflation, Tom Lee, Fundstrats head of research, wrote in a note Sunday.

The bullwhip effect describes, roughly, the tendency of businesses to over- or under-estimate the amount of inventory they will need relative to consumer demand, resulting in volatility in orders across the supply chain.

In the case of the past year, retailers over-estimated, leading them to broadly over-order from wholesalers, who then in turn over-ordered from their own suppliers leading, in aggregate, to a major mismatch between consumers actual demand and inventories on hand. The bloated inventory levels at Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Gaps (GPS) and other retailers this past earnings season served as recent examples of how this effect played out in real-time.

I do not believe companies want to permanently carry higher inventory. It is expensive and introduces huge balance sheet risk, Lee said. Thus, companies will want to trim inventories when supply visibility improves. The logical implication, for me, is prices will come down.

This all may sound suspiciously similar to the Feds now-debunked argument from last year that inflation would prove "transitory. And the data even earlier this year have disappointed economists looking for a peak, with Mays 8.6% CPI print unexpectedly taking out what many had expected would be the peak this year in March.

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Already, however, prices for metals, commodities and energy all raw materials in the supply chain have fallen sharply from recent peaks. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) are on track to post their first monthly decline since November, and cotton futures (CT=F) have plummeted from a more than decade-high logged in May.

And this decline may come just in time.

As Jim Reid, Deutsche Banks head of credit strategy and thematic research, illustrates below, the Fed began raising interest rates with inflation significantly higher than seen during prior hiking cycle.

Over the past 70 years, the first rate hike has come, at the median, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 2.5%. The first rate hike this year, by contrast, occurred in March when CPI soared at an 8.5% annual clip.

The only rate-hiking cycle that resembles the current environment began in August 1980, when the Fed started raising interest rates with inflation running north of 12%.

Chart via Deutsche Bank

Where this cycle is so different is that the first hike occurred very, very late in the inflation cycle, Reid said. My base case remains that the Fed will find it very difficult to ease policy notably given that inflation is going to be harder to dislodge.

And although another ramp-up in the rate of inflation in June may be in the cards, this does not preclude a deceleration in inflation later this year.

June is bound to see another big jump in the headline index, thanks to the surge in gas prices in recent weeks, but the abrupt drop in wholesale prices means that retail gas prices are set to fall quite sharply over the next few weeks, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.

At the same time, core pressures are starting to moderate, thanks mostly to slower wage growth at the margin, so we would be surprised to see the core CPI keep rising at the recent 0.6% per month pace.

Shepherdson said he expects headline CPI to rise by 1.0% in June but then average an only 0.3% rise over the next few months thereafter. And this could then give the Fed leeway to slow its pace of tightening by the end of this year, he argued, even as it refuses to budge from its hawkish rhetoric for now.

Policymakers know very well that the path of inflation, especially the core rate, over the remainder of this year mostly is baked-in and is impervious to their interest rate decisions. Monetary policy works with long lags, Shepherdson said.

But the Fed has constituencies other than monetary economists; they have to calm the inflation fears of the public, the markets, and politicians. That means they have no choice but to sound as tough as possible, because part of their job is to rein-in inflation expectations.

Adding: If inflation then falls faster than their base-case forecastand the marketsthen so much the better.

8:30 a.m. ET: Advance Goods Trade Balance, May (-$105.4 billion expected, -$105.9 billion during prior month, revised to -$106.7 billion)

8:30 a.m. ET: Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, May preliminary (2.1% expected, 2.2% during previous month)

8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Inventories, month-over-month, May (1.6% expected, 0.7% during prior month)

9:00 a.m. ET: FHFA Housing Pricing Index, April (1.6% expected, 1.5% during prior month)

9:00 a.m. ET:S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, April (1.85% expected, 2.42% during prior month)

9:00 a.m. ET: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, April (21.20% expected, 21.17% during prior month)

9:00 a.m. ET:S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, April (20.55% during prior month)

10:00 a.m. ET:Conference Board Consumer Confidence, June (100 expected, 106.4 during prior month)

10:00 a.m. ET:Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, June (-5 expected, -9 during prior month)

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Inflation will probably fall, but it won't be the Fed's doing: Morning Brief - Yahoo Finance

Theyll chicken out: Fund legend Rick Rule says the Fed wont keep hiking rates aggressively to prevent amazing damage. Here are 3 spots he likes for your money

The Fed is raising interest rates aggressively in an attempt to tame raging inflation.

But according to legendary investor Rick Rule former president and CEO of investment fund Sprott U.S. Holdings things may not go as planned for Americas central bank.

I think theyll chicken out, he told Stansberry Research earlier this month.

If we had a period of real interest rates it would certainly cure inflation, but it wouldn't cure inflation until it did amazing damage to various balance sheets.

This isn't the first time Rule has voiced concern about the economys ability to handle substantially higher interest rates.

In an interview with MoneyWise earlier this year, he said, I do not believe that the broad equities market will handle multiple rate hikes.

Rule doesnt suggest bailing on stocks completely. Heres a look at three things that the super investor still sees opportunities in 2022.

Consumer prices are rising at their fastest pace in 40 years. While the Fed is tightening, Rule doesnt believe the rate of inflation will slow anytime soon.

I think we'll continue to see prices going up for most of the remainder of the decade, he told MoneyWise.

To preserve your purchasing power, Rule points to gold and silver, which cant be printed out of thin air like fiat money.

I think that an investor who does not have some of his or her wealth in precious metals or precious metals equities are making an extraordinary mistake, he cautions.

You can buy physical gold and silver at your local bullion shop. Or you can buy shares in companies that produce precious metals.

For investors who are getting started in the sector, Rule suggests looking at the big names first such as Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

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The first part of a gold bull market and the most predictable part of a gold bull market is enjoyed by the biggest and best companies in the space.

He adds that when money from retail investors moves into the precious metals market, it doesnt go to the small speculative names. It goes into Barrick.

When building an inflation-proof portfolio, Rule also likes Warren Buffetts idea of investing in price-makers: businesses that can easily increase the price of their products and services without jeopardizing demand.

Buffett has been pointing out going all the way back to the 1970s that there are businesses that are so superb that they have pricing power, Rule says.

He uses Apple as an example.

Early last year, Apples management revealed that the companys active installed base of hardware had surpassed 1.65 billion devices, including over 1 billion iPhones.

While competitors offer cheaper devices, many consumers dont want to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That means as inflation spikes, Apple can pass higher costs to its global consumer base without worrying too much about a drop in sales volume.

But Rule doesnt advocate buying Apple.

Instead, he suggests a representative sample of what he calls global dominators through the exchange-traded fund ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). NOBL holds S&P 500 companies that have paid increasing dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.

[The fund] has shown itself over the very long term to be a very efficacious strategy for more than maintaining purchasing power, for adding to your wealth, Rule says.

Since NOBLs inception in October 2013, it has delivered annualized returns of over 12%.

At a time when high inflation is rapidly eroding purchasing power, it might not make sense to keep a bunch of cash on hand.

But thats exactly what Rule recommends.

Sure, savings accounts pay next to nothing these days. However, Rule says that cash gives you the ability to take advantage of moments of illiquidity.

I learned a lesson some years ago in 2008. When I ran into that crisis well-cashed up, the cash gave me both the courage and the tools to take advantage of that circumstance rather than being taken advantage of.

With the global financial markets likely to remain volatile over the near- to medium-term, investors flush with cash wont have a shortage of buying opportunities to capitalize on.

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US is only a few days away from an absolute explosion on inflation here are 3 shockproof sectors to help protect your portfolio

Theres always a bull market somewhere: Jim Cramers famous words suggest you can make money no matter what. Here are 2 powerful tailwinds to take advantage of today

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

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Theyll chicken out: Fund legend Rick Rule says the Fed wont keep hiking rates aggressively to prevent amazing damage. Here are 3 spots he likes for...

The worlds third-largest maker of semiconductor wafers, Taiwans GlobalWafers, announced plans to build a $5 billion factory in the U.S. on Mondaybut only if the government helps pay for it.

This investment that theyre making is contingent upon Congress passing the CHIPS Act. The [GlobalWafers] CEO told me that herself, and they reiterated that today, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CNBC, the same day GlobalWafers announced its development plan.

Congress actually passed the CHIPS Act, which proposed $52 billion in funding for local players to invest in the domestic chip industry, in January 2021 as part of that years National Defense Authorization Actan annual bill designed to provide guidance on policies and funding for the year. But, over a year later, Congress has yet to formally allocate any budget to finance the bill.

It has to be done before [Congress goes] to August recess. I dont know how to say it any more plainly. [The GlobalWafers] dealwill go away, I think, if Congress doesnt act, Raimondo told CNBC.

The CHIPS Act is intended to shore up Americas flagging chip industry as a hedge against Chinas accelerated development of its own semiconductor capabilities and shift global production away from Chinas shores. The majority of global semiconductor manufacturing is consolidated in Taiwan, an independent island that Beijing claims sovereignty over.

Technically, the CHIPS Act is supposed to support domestic companiesnot foreign companies investing in America. But last December the U.S.-based semiconductor industry organization SEMI urged Congress to open CHIPS funding for all companies investing in the U.S.

Taiwans GlobalWafers, which has proposed building its new plant in Texas, isnt the only chip industry manufacturer that has conditioned its investment in the U.S. on government funding.

In 2020, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC), the worlds largest contract chip manufacturer, announced plans for a $12 billion plant in Phoenix to produce its most advanced chips. But TSMC CEO Mark Liu made it clear development would go ahead only if the government could make up TSMCs running costs difference between the United States and Taiwan.

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The State of Arizona approved at least $200 million in public infrastructure funding to support TSMCs factory operations in Phoenix, including spending on roads and sewage systems. In June, TSMC said construction of its Arizona fab, which is ongoing, was proving to be more costly than the company anticipated and called for Washington to extend CHIPS support to foreign firms.

Of course, domestic players want the government to help subsidize their own expansions in the U.S., too. Last week, Intel put a freeze on construction of its latest $20 billion factory in Ohio and postponed its groundbreaking ceremony indefinitelyor until Congress funds the CHIPS Act.

Unfortunately, CHIPS Act funding has moved more slowly than we expected, and we still dont know when it will get done, Intel spokesperson Will Moss told the Wall Street Journal, calling on Congress to act so Intel can move forward at the speed and scale we have long envisioned for Ohio.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Chip makers are refusing to build new semiconductor plants in the U.S. unless Congress unlocks $52 billion in funding - Yahoo Finance

Washington Commanders owner Daniel Snyder is apparently ducking the U.S. Congress.

Snyder refused to accept the service of a subpoena to appear before the House Oversight and Reform Committee, a spokesperson said in a statement on Monday. Snyder had previously declined to appear before the committee, which prompted it to issue a subpoena to try and compel him to do so.

Snyders attorney declined to accept the subpoena on Friday on behalf of Snyder, according to The Athletic.

Mr. Snyder has so far refused to accept service of the committee's subpoena, the statement said. While the committee has been and remains willing to consider reasonable accommodations requested by the witnesses, we will not tolerate attempts to evade service of a duly authorized subpoena or seek special treatment not afforded to other witnesses who testified in this matter. The committee will not be deterred from obtaining Mr. Snyder's testimony, and we remain committed to ensuring transparency about the toxic workplace culture at the Washington Commanders and the NFLs inadequate response."

Its unclear what the committee will do next.

Snyder released a statement on Monday afternoon, though he didn't deny refusing a subpoena.

"Mr. Snyder has not refused to appear for a deposition," Snyder said, via The Washington Post's Nicki Jhabvala. "The Committee offered only one date June 30 and Mr. Snyder's attorney is out of the country and unavailable on that date. Mr. Snyder's lawyer has provided alternative dates to the Committee and looks forward to finding a path forward for Mr. Snyder's further cooperation and to address remaining due process concerns."

The committee is currently investigating claims of workplace misconduct and sexual harassment within the Commanders organization, and has been doing so for months. The NFL already fined the team $10 million after it conducted an investigation into the Commanders. A report from The Washington Post last week revealed new details of a sexual assault allegation against Snyder from back in 2009, and that the team allegedly paid the woman accusing him $1.6 million in a settlement.

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The committee tried to get Snyder to testify on Wednesday, which is when commissioner Roger Goodell did so remotely. Snyder declined, and his attorney cited a longstanding Commanders-related business conflict as the reason why, as hes currently in France.

"If Mr. Snyder was truly committed to cooperating with the Committee's investigation, he would have accepted the Committee's invitation to testify about the Commanders' toxic workplace culture, a committee spokesperson said in a statement last week before the subpoena was issued. As the Chairwoman's letter made clear, the Committee has been more than accommodating even allowing Mr. Snyder to testify remotely from France.

His refusal to testify sends an unmistakable signal that Mr. Snyder has something to hide and is afraid of coming clean to the American public and addressing major worker protection concerns facing the NFL. The Committee will not be deterred in its investigation to uncover the truth of workplace misconduct at the Washington Commanders.

Daniel Snyder apparently declined to accept a subpoena from Congress last week. (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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Commanders owner Daniel Snyder refused to accept subpoena from Congress amid investigation - Yahoo Sports

Amid reports of "an impasse" between the Brooklyn Nets and Kyrie Irving, the seven-time NBA All-Star will exercise the $36.9 million option on his contract for the 2022-23 season, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania.

Irving can now sign an extension with the Nets or if the two sides cannot agree on the long-term deal Irving was seeking, he can become an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Nets could still trade him this season.

Irving, an otherworldly talent and enigmatic personality, signed a four-year, $136.5 million contract with the Nets in 2019, seemingly linking the prime of his career to friend and fellow All-NBA performer Kevin Durant.

Following his return from a career-threatening Achilles' tendon injury, Durant signed a four-year, $198 million extension last August, when Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks said the franchise was "very confident" extensions for Irving and James Harden would also be "signed, sealed, delivered" before this past season.

Neither Irving nor Harden committed last summer, and both of their relationships with the team fractured in the months that followed. Irving refused to meet New York City's COVID-19 vaccine mandate and missed 53 games during the regular season as a result. Uncertain of the team's direction, as Durant rested another leg injury and Irving was absent on principle, Harden forced a trade to the Philadelphia 76ers in February.

The Nets allowed Irving to begin playing road games in January, and the city gave him clearance to play in Brooklyn prior to the playoffs. He scored 39 points in a brilliant performance during a buzzer-beating loss to the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their first-round series, and then combined to score just 46 points on 37% shooting over the remainder of a sweep. The Nets entered the season as title favorites and left in shambles.

Irving said afterward, "I dont really plan on going anywhere," reassurance that might have carried more weight had he not abruptly left contending teams in Cleveland and Boston over the previous five seasons.

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Seven-time NBA All-Star Kyrie Irving played just 29 games for the Brooklyn Nets this past season. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

The vaccine mandate has been lifted, but injury and availability concerns still surround Irving, who has played in 116 of Brooklyn's 246 regular season and playoff games over the last three seasons. Shoulder, hamstring, knee, finger, back, groin, ankle and facial injuries have cost him games since he signed in 2019. Shoulder surgery ended his 2019-20 season in February, and an ankle injury cost him the final three games of a seven-game 2020 Eastern Conference semifinals loss to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks.

Irving has also taken multiple personal leaves of absence from the Nets.

Irving said in March, "Theres no way I could leave my man [Durant] anywhere," before clarifying in April, "I think that it really entails us managing this franchise together alongside" Marks and Nets owner Joe Tsai. That raised eyebrows around a team that has self-combusted and faces decisions this summer about Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Joe Harris, Patty Mills, Nic Claxton, Bruce Brown and Blake Griffin, among others.

Marks appeared to counter Irving's comments during his exit interview in May, when he told reporters, "We're looking for guys that want to come in here and be part of something bigger than themselves, play selfless, play team basketball, and be available. That goes not only for Kyrie but for everybody here."

In theory, a roster constructed around Durant, Irving and Simmons should contend, and oddsmakers agree. In practice, Irving and Durant have played 44 games together in three years, and Simmons has not played since struggling in the 2021 playoffs and subsequently sitting out last season for multiple reasons, including a trade request and holdout, a back injury that required surgery and self-described mental health struggles.

Irving's unreliability has led to questions about what the 30-year-old's next contract might look like. Since he was eligible for a variety of contract options that could net him well north of $200 million from the Nets through 2027 or close to that figure elsewhere over the next four years, the recent report from The Athletic's Shams Charania that Irving and the Nets were not all that close to a long-term deal came as little surprise.

In fact, the New York Daily News' Kristian Winfield reported in late May that Brooklyn is "outright unwilling to give him a long-term extension." And since Irving tweeted this month, "I thought Mother Earth belonged to the people. Why am I paying to live here?" nobody should pretend to know what becomes of his deal.

Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach

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Report: Kyrie Irving exercises player option to remain with Nets next season - Yahoo Sports

It's one thing for an NBA rookie to have confidence in his ability. It's a whole other thing to immediately call out one of the greatest NBA players of all time before you've played a single game.

That didn't stop Indiana Pacers rookie Bennedict Mathurin from calling out Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James. In an interview with the Washington Post, Mathurin said James is going to have to prove he's a better player than Mathurin.

Before slipping off to his hotel room to make his final preparations for the draft, Mathurin said that there was one test, maybe the biggest of all, that he was particularly looking forward as a rookie: His first game against Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James.

A lot of people say hes great, Mathurin said. I want to see how great he is. I dont think anybody is better than me. Hes going to have to show me hes better than me.

That statement is most likely going to end poorly for Mathurin. Despite his age, James proved capable of still performing at an elite level last year. He averaged 30.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. It was only the third time in his career James averaged over 30 points per game.

As for Mathurin, he'll have to focus on proving himself in the NBA after being selected by the Pacers with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft. Our own Krysten Peek liked the pick, saying Mathurin should pair well with Tyrese Haliburton and Malcolm Brogdon.

The 2022-23 NBA schedule has yet to be released, so it's unclear when Mathurin and James will play against each other. There's a good chance Mathurin's quote will resurface shortly after that contest, and it probably won't be a good thing for the rookie.

Bennedict Mathurin called out LeBron James for some reason. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)

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Pacers rookie Bennedict Mathurin calls out LeBron James: 'Hes going to have to show me hes better than me' - Yahoo Sports

In a recent interview, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO, Elon Musk said about the UAW: They have so much power over the whitehouse, they can exclude Tesla from an EV (Electric Vehicle) summit. The referenced EV summit was held in August of 2021, where President Joe Biden discussed the promising future of Electric Vehicles.

While President Biden has now referenced Tesla when discussing the future of EVs, that wasnt always the case. President Biden lauded the likes of Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) for being American made and the future of the county.

Related: Elon Musk Recommends Investing In 'Physical Things' - Here Are 3 Physical Assets That Perform Well During High Inflation

Knowing what we know now, the praise feels especially tone def and exclusive, given the recent reports from cars.com, citing Tesla, as the most American made manufacturer, who landed more cars in the top ten of American Made Models than any other manufacturer.

Musk has also said in an interview that In case that wasnt enough, then you have President Biden with Mary Barra at a subsequent event, congratulating Mary for having led the EV revolution. Musk continued I believe it was in the same quarter that GM delivered 26 Electric Vehicles, and Tesla delivered 300,000.

Musk confronted some of the perceived slights in a reply to a tweet from President Biden, in January of this year.

Musk is part billionaire, part twitter troll, but 100% competitive. He understands business, and is looking for respect. Love him or hate him, he and his companies have significantly altered our present, and will heavily imprint our future.

Build back better is still a moniker that President Biden belives in and is actively attempting to push forward. Seemingly, all EV manufacturers stand to benefit from any future bills, laws, etc., with Tesla, once again, leading the pack.

Read Next: Jeff Bezos Says Inflation 'Most Hurts The Least Affluent' Which May Be Why These Assets Are Performing Better Than Ever

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Photo: Courtesy of Tesla Owners Club Belgium on Flickr

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'They Have So Much Power Over The White House' - Elon Musk Explains About One Particular Group - Yahoo Finance