Monthly Archives: June 2022

Britains cost of living crisis is being made worse by Brexit dragging down the countrys growth potential and costing workers hundreds of pounds a year in lost pay, new research claims.

The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than 470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016.

In a report six years on from the referendum, the researchers said Brexit was damaging the competitiveness of UK exports on the world stage just as companies are forced to deal with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and Russias war in Ukraine pushing inflation to historic levels.

A less open Great Britain is expected to be poorer and less productive, it said.

Official figures on Wednesday showed a fresh rise in the inflation rate from 9% in April to 9.1% last month, as surging petrol prices and the rising cost of a weekly shop ramps up the pressure on struggling families. The Bank of England has warned the inflation rate could reach 11% by October.

As the government attempted to face down rail unions on Tuesday amid the most widespread train strikes since the 1980s, ministers were forced to defend inflation-busting increases planned for the state pension while ordering pay restraint for workers in the public sector.

The former Conservative chancellor Ken Clarke said Britain was in the grip of the worst economic crises since at least 1979, telling the BBC that a recession was almost inevitable. We are, I think, almost certainly going to go into recession in the next couple of years, he said. The Bank of England has had to start tackling inflation, which has been allowed to get completely out of hand.

Boris Johnson has warned workers against asking for bigger pay rises to prevent a 1970s-style wage-price spiral driving inflation higher, in sharp contrast to October last year when the prime minister suggested Brexit could help create a high-wage, high-productivity economy of the future.

However, the report from the Resolution Foundation and LSE said Brexit would weigh heavily on productivity gains over the coming years up to 2030, while suggesting that higher import costs were adding to pain for household finances.

The research estimated labour productivity a key measure of economic output per hour of work would be reduced by 1.3% by 2030 because of a decline in openness of the British economy after Brexit, equivalent to losing a quarter of efficiency gains achieved over the past decade.

Ministers have argued bigger pay rises for UK workers would only be sustainable if backed by productivity gains. However, with the expected decline in the efficiency of the British economy after Brexit, the academics said inflation-adjusted pay was now set for a 1.8% fall by 2030. It said this was equivalent to the loss of 472 a worker, a year.

The reports authors included the LSE academic Swati Dhingra, an outspoken Brexit critic picked by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to sit on the Bank of Englands interest-rate setting monetary policy committee from August.

The report appeared to undermine the governments argument that Brexit and its plans to level up the economy to boost prosperity outside London and the south-east, with researchers finding the north-east of England would be hardest hit by leaving the EU.

With a bigger industrial sector and higher exposure to the EU market, it said the region would see a 2.7% fall in manufacturing output by 2030 compared with a scenario in which the UK voted to remain in the EU in 2016.

Although the report found that exports to the EU had not been as heavily hit by Brexit under the terms of Johnsons trade deal with Brussels since the start of last year, it warned overall the UK would become less open and less competitive.

Exports to the EU are expected to be 38% lower than they would have been inside the EU by 2030, with a further 16% decline due to forgone further integration with the EU over that period.

Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said Brexit would make recovering from the Covid pandemic and getting wages to rise sustainably after the cost of living crisis more difficult.

He said: Ten percent inflation is painful, whether you drive a train, commute by train, or have nothing to do with trains. It would always have been hard to cope with, but it is far more so for families coming on the back of 15 years of stagnant wages.

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The sustainable route out of this is stronger, productivity-led, wage growth. Covid-19 and Brexit dont make that any easier to achieve, but the UK has considerable economic strengths and we urgently need a renewed economic strategy that builds on them.

A government spokesperson said exports had increased in the three months to April and were above pre-pandemic levels. Since we left the European Union, we have begun seizing new opportunities to improve UK regulation for businesses and consumers through plans to enhance competition and harness new technology.

We will introduce the Brexit freedoms bill which will enable the government to amend, repeal and replace retained EU law, helping us to create a new pro-growth framework that gives businesses the confidence to invest and create jobs.

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Brexit is making cost of living crisis worse, new study claims - The Guardian

Sources close to Mr Rees-Mogg have said that he is keen on people understanding the extent of EU law still applies in this country."

The source added: It is about people seeing the full extent of all EU laws on our books, which Parliament had no say in, to build momentum for the Brexit freedoms bill.

Previously, when we were in the EU we couldn't do anything about these regs, but now we can, inviting MPs and the public to see what's there, what adds cost to businesses and consumers, what we should repeal.

The process of ending EU red tape has been held up for two years because of the Covid pandemic and lockdown when Government time was taken up getting the country through the crisis.

But with Boris Johnsons Government reset following his victory in a vote of confidence by Tory MPs, completing Brexit freedoms has been identified as one of the top priorities.

When he was given the job of maximising Brexit opportunities, Jacob Rees-Mogg appealed to Express readers and the wider public for ideas on Brussels bureaucratic regulations which could be scrapped.

READ MORE:Truss refuses to rule out ending ties with foreign court over Rwanda

Last month, Express.co.uk revealed that he had received more than 2,000 ideas from the public and businesses.

These included allowing fracking and abolishing petty rules on vans and vacuum cleaners among hundreds of other suggestions.

One idea which the Government has enacted quickly is the scrapping of the lawn mower premium on all motorists, an EU regulation which would have seen motor insurance increase for everyone by 50 to cover the cost of driving lawn mowers.

Tory Brexiteer veteran MP Peter Bone, whose private members bill ended the lawn mower tax, said: Im delighted that Jacob Rees*Mogg is to set out his plans.

He is a real rottweiler when it comes to tearing up unnecessary rules and regulations and I cant think of a better person to be in charge of this.

Of course I have already got rid of one regulation on the lawn mower but there are an enormous amount more to be taken off our statute books.

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In an interview in February, shortly after taking the Brexit role, Mr Rees-Mogg told the Sunday Express: Government is not the centre of all knowledge and wisdom. Actually, there is a much greater wisdom with the British people as a whole.

That is why I am so keen for the British people to tell me what it is in their daily life that the Government does that makes their life harder. And if I can, I will push to get rid of that.

If you want to get involved with your ideas you can email Mr Rees-Mogg with ideas on publiccorrespondence@cabinetoffice.gov.uk or send by mail to Jacob Rees-Mogg, Cabinet Office, 70, Whitehall, London SW1A 2AS.

Mark your correspondent "Brexit Opportunity Ideas" and tell Mr Rees-Mogg you are an Express reader.

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Brexit Britain still has 'more than 2000 EU rules' - but FINALLY there's a plan to fix it - Express

Meanwhile, Western officials have suggested that mass mobilisation is "about to happen" in Russia, although the Kremlin is "concerned" because this would effectively be an "admission of failure" in what was intended to be a quick, clean operation in Ukraine and has instead turned into a slow and grinding conflict.

Because Moscow also fears that country-wide mobilisation could stoke unrest in Russian cities, it is attempting to increase the pool of fighters by "doing very significant recruitment" in poor areas and raising the age limit for serving.

Officials also said there is "more chatter" about Putin's health and "more speculation" about who will replace him in Russia, although there is no "immediate threat" to his grip on power.

The Prime Minister's comments came after he made an unannounced trip to Kyiv for talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, when he told the Ukrainian president that Britain would be prepared to train tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops as they continue to fight back against the Russian offensive in the Donbas.

He said it was important to prevent the Russians "freezing" the conflict so they could consolidate their gains before mounting another attack.

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Positive thing out of Brexit EU withdrawal allowed Britain to take the lead in Ukraine - Express

Opinion

Chief Political Commentator

June 22, 2022 3:19 pm(Updated 3:20 pm)

Boris Johnson is not known for his strategic patience, but this week he tried to take the long view as the nation grappled with strikes, soaring inflation and squeezed wages. I say this to the country as a whole, we need to get ready to stay the course, he told the Cabinet.

That bid to lift our eyes to the horizon is reflected in a string of policy areas, where the Government has set targets for delivery by 2030 (which the eagle-eyed among you may have spotted, is a deadline way after the next election).

On Brexit in particular, Downing Street stressed this week that it was too early to pass judgment on whether that historic shift in the UKs global role was having a negative impact on the economy.

That quote reminded me of the famous quote by the late Chinese premier Zhou Enlai, who when asked about the influence of the 1789 French Revolution replied: Too early to say. Except in No 10s case it felt not so much like cautious, historic wisdom but calculated political evasion.

Unfortunately for the Government, a new economic study out today suggests that Brexit isnt just having an impact on the short term but on the medium and long-term too.

The Resolution Foundations The Big Brexit report (a collaboration with the LSE, funded by Nuffield Foundation) provides the most detailed assessment to date of the ongoing impact of the UKs Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU.

The good news for the Government is that, contrary to some other studies, the report finds that the UK hasnt seen a large relative decline in its exports to the EU that many predicted (although UK imports from the EU have fallen more swiftly than those from the rest of the world).

The bad news, however, is that we have suffered a sharp decline in trade openness (total trade as a share of GDP) since 2019, with a fall of eight percentage points. Competitiveness has fallen too.

The result makes for some pretty grim forecasts for 2030, the Governments favourite timeline. The average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than 470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with the UK staying in the EU.

The key behind that statistic is that productivity will be reduced by 1.3 per cent by the end of the decade, due to the changes in trading rules alone. That is only a fraction of the five per cent in lost productivity forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) by 2030 (which takes into account migration and investment and other factors).

Crucially, the Resolution Foundation study also manages to disentangle the trade impacts from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which ministers righly cite when trying to suggest the big picture is a complex one.

The latest report has more bad news for the Governments Red Wall areas, as it predicts that the North East is expected to be hit hardest by Brexit as its firms are particularly reliant on exports to the EU. By contrast, the East of England, London, Northern Ireland and Scotland are expected to outperform the rest of the country. The output of the UK fishing industry is expected to decline by 30 per cent, and some workers will face painful adjustments.

Project Fear is beginning to look an awful lot like Project Fact.

But it is the hit to productivity that ought to worry ministers, not least because the Governments entire wages policy is based on the idea that higher wages can only be justified by improved productivity. The latest report seemed to confirm that Brexits impact is more like a slow puncture than a blowout.

As we approach the sixth anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum, no one wants to reheat the old debates or relitigate its outcome. Yet for many there has been a conspiracy of silence from both the Conservatives and Labour on the reality of the downsides of quitting the EU.

While the Brexit deal cant be reopened fully, there is a strong case for getting fresh agreements with the EU on things like veterinary and agrifood standards (at the heart of much of the Northern Ireland problem). This is one of the few areas in which Labour has dared to dip its toe. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications and ID cards are other ways of smoothing the relationship.

As UK in A Changing Europe think tank chief Anand Menon said today, there are some Brexit opportunities which can be grasped. He said that if new immigration rules mean there are more Indian nuclear scientists rather than Romanian fruit-pickers, its possible that productivity will increase as a result.

More importantly, Brexit (and the 2019 election) has also changed the narrative in that both the main political parties now at least talk about tackling regional and economic inequality. As Menon points out, theres nothing like a marginal seat to focus political attention.

The PM himself has in the past talked about bumps in the road on the way to his promised land. Yet he and other ministers need to be much more open about the trade-offs involved in Brexit. Admitting the downsides as well as the potential upsides would surely help Johnson tackle his twin problems of trust and honesty with some voters. Just as with the looming recession, identifying the problems is a prerequisite to trying to mitigate them.

It would also fit with the new note of downbeat realism that the PM himself tried to strike this week. Michael Gove has been among the few ministers to try to prepare the nation for what looks like recession, warning that there are inevitably tough times ahead for the UK and the global economy. That was a far cry from Johnsons previous attacks on the doomsters and the gloomsters.

And unless ministers are honest about the short and medium term, their pleas for patience may fall on deaf ears. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Minister for Brexit Opportunities, today unveiled plans to liberate the UK from retained EU law. But he has also tried to say it could be 50 years before the full economic consequences of quitting the EU are known.

No 10 took a similar line earlier this week when the PMs spokesman said: The opportunities Brexit provides will be a boon to the UK economy in the long run. But as the economist John Maynard Keynes pointed out: In the long run, were all dead.

For Johnson, levelling with the public about the downsides to Brexit may be a key step in his plan for levelling up the country.

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Boris Johnson needs to level with the public that Brexit is making the cost of living worse - iNews

The result of the referendum on Scottish independence, as the will of the sovereign people of Scotland, will be binding on the majority of MSPs elected to the Holyrood parliament on a manifesto commitment to hold such a referendum.

The position in England is different, where the UK Government decided in the case of the consultative Brexit referendum that it would acquiesce to the will of the people in England and put the required legislation through parliament.

READ MORE:Nicola Sturgeon sets the date for the 'route map' to indyref2

Theresa Mays letter to the EU president and statement to parliament on Brexit on March 29 2017, and her letter to the nation of November 24 2018, were all based on her intention of honouring the will of the people there is not even a hint that the referendum is legally binding on parliament.

In fact, in her letter to Donald Tusk notifying the European Council of the United Kingdoms intention to withdraw from the European Union she makes it clear that she is invoking Article 50 as the United Kingdom Parliament confirmed the result of the referendum by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.

The present debate on binding or consultative referendums is being conducted on the basis of the relationship between people and parliament in England. There are no grounds for such a debate in Scotland, where the relationship is quite clear: the people are sovereign.

John JamiesonSouth Queensferry

I HAVE always believed that people are entitled to their opinion, though blatant lies and deliberate distortions always angered me. On reading Kevin McKennas article (Launch event was lacking optimism of 2012 despite better starting spot, Jun 15), here are my opinions.

I have enjoyed a lot of Kevins pieces, although some that he has written in a humorous vein were not quite my cup of tea (everyone to their own taste).

Kevin recently wrote that he would not lose any sleep over Yes being defeated in the next referendum. The criticism he expresses is a revival of what he has written before, and gives me the impression that he is anticipating a future undisturbed sleep.

READ MORE:BBC Scotland says Glenn Campbell's indyref2 legality tweet 'did not break rules'

New to me in his criticisms is his comment about trade unions and his specific remark about the leader of Glasgow City Council. He seems to have forgotten that it was under her leadership that council women workers won their historic pay demands.

The source of denial of those justified pay demands was the collusion between a certain trade union and the previous Labour council.

As for the remarks about the vital campaigning for Yes in 2014 (I assume his is referring to the trade unions and their leaderships), if there was campaigning it was surely from the rank and file, because their leaderships were for a No vote.

There were, to the best of my knowledge, two exceptions. One was my own union Unite, and I think the other was the Fire Brigades Union both adopted a neutral position.

Bobby BrennanGlasgow

FOR months folks have been gnashing their teeth with discontent at there being no news of a referendum. We get the launch, and in The National Common Weal, Red Kevin the Labour mouthpiece/occasional Yesser and Lesley Riddoch all presented such a gloomy response in their articles. Kevins was an outright assault on all things SNP.

Come on, people, the question is do we want our independence? If Yes, then lets get behind the vehicle that will get us there. The opposition will throw plenty of grenades so we dont need to do the same.

Jan FerrieAyrshire

I HAVE been loath in present times to answer some of the rants in the letters page on the grounds that (a) answering them gives them undeserved daylight and (b) in many cases they are the work of plants. One wonders why some of them arent to be seen in the letters pages of our Unionist press. One feature in virtually all of it is that there is absolutely no sensible or productive alternative to the political positions that is under attack.

READ MORE:Referendum route to independence is full of legal potholes

I was energised by the declaration that we are having a referendum whether Westminster agrees or not. Im sure most of us feel exactly the same. That is exactly the right position right and now increases the pressure is on the Unionist coalition to come up with any democratic reason why we should not be allowed a referendum. In particular, the sad cartel that is the Scottish Labour party cannot cope with this declaration of our democratic right.

The Scottish Claim of Right, the Smith Commission and, more significantly, the UN Charter all make it absolutely clear that we have the right to choose our own future and any notion that we should doff our caps and crawl back into our wee boxes when the UK suggests it can stop us is pathetic.

Dave McEwan HillSandbank, Argyll

I SEE that in their desperation that the English Tory government has, with no sense of irony, returned to the 1970s by referring to trades union leaders as union barons. Deeply ironic from a party which has packed the House of Lords with donor barons and robber barons to sit alongside the silver spoon barons who are only there because their 15x great-grandad raped, pillaged and murdered to get there.

Cal WatersonLennoxtown

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This is why indyref2 will be binding while the Brexit vote was not - The National

The Subways guitarist Billy Lunn has opened up about the struggles that UK musicians touring Europe are facing in the aftermath of Brexit.

In an op-ed piece in The Independent, Lunn has shared his thoughts about the little-reported difficulties that touring bands suffering since the UK left the European Union, something that hes keenly aware of given that The Subways are more popular on the continent than they are back home.

As I write, I sit in a venue called Hansa 39 in Munich, readying myself for sound check. Im apprehensive, because my main amplifier spluttered and eventually refused to work two days into the tour, and Im now praying my spare amplifier doesnt go the same way, Lunn declares.

He goes on to explain that in pre-Brexit times, a quick phonecall to the amp brands local A&R representative would have seen a new amp turn up that he could use for the tour and return home to the UK with while he was waiting for his broken amp to be fixed.

Brexit and the end of free movement of people and goods between the UK and the EU has put paid to such convenience the carnet system now means that bands are obligated to return with the exact gear they left with, right down to the serial numbers.

The faulty amplifier, like every single item we bring with us, is listed on the carnet, with its weight, type, model number and serial number provided, and must simply come along for the ride, Lunn explains.

The carnet expires in 12 months, and it cant be altered until its expiration date. That means we must make extra sure to list and bring with us spares of everything we use, whilst also making sure that they wont drastically increase insurance costs.

That goes for every single item, right down to power adapters, power units, power leads, extension cables, XLR and quarter inch cables, patch cables, guitars, guitar cases, guitar pedals, pedalboards, guitar stands, drums, drum stands, drum cases, cymbals, cymbal stands, cymbal cases, microphones, wireless transmitters and receivers, in-ear monitors (plus their respective cases), and the rest!

In addition to the stress of not being able to replace faulty gear on the road, and the expense of having to pay to ship backups for every essential item on the tour regardless of how small or commonplace, the hassle for touring artists starts before they even go on tour every item that comes on tour has to be catalogued, weighed and the serial number noted for the carnet.

Image: Shirlaine Forrest/WireImage

This is a huge logistical pain for guitar players especially, as Lunn notes, it meant stripping apart pedalboards that had taken us 15 years to assemble, just to get at the serial numbers of every guitar pedal before weighing them separately.

With the addition of huge delays leaving and returning to Britain, and unprecedented expense and strain put on support bands who do not have the logistical support of an established band, Lunn concludes with a sombre message for the future of UK artists wanting to work in the EU

Where before there was a sense of freedom, now theres limitation, he writes. Its ironic, really, given Vote Leaves campaign messaging. Culturally and economically, however, the arts industrys suffering is really only just beginning.

The article is part of a wider series called Brexit, 6 years on, created by The Independent to mark the sixth anniversary of the referendum on Britains membership of the EU, and share the impact of the vote to leave.

This is not the first time we have heard about the strain that British musicians are feeling post-Brexit, as a study released 18 months ago revealed that over three-quarters of UK musicians dont see themselves touring in the EU following the news that visas and customs declarations for equipment will be required.

The study, conducted by musician booking site Encore included 452 musicians, and also revealed that 40 percent of those asked said they already had to cancel gigs specifically because of Brexit.

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The suffering is only just beginning Subways guitarist reveals the harsh reality of Brexit for UK bands touring Europe - Guitar.com

Residents in Barking have voiced their concerns over the soaring cost of living and the burden inflation is placing on working families, the worsening financial outlook of the country even has some in the East London borough questioning whether Brexit may have come at the wrong time. Barking backed Brexit by 62.4 per cent to Remain 37.6 per cent, one of the few areas of London to back leaving the EU.

During a recent walkabout in Barking, Express.co.uk spoke with a number of residents who expressed concern over the impact of rising prices and bills.

"Talking about Brexit, it is a good thing to do but depends on the right timing," one man stops to tell us.

"When you consider the state of the economy at the moment, considering the standard of living that Britain's had in the last month, the party is not so good at the moment.

"It would be better if we get into Brexit at the right timing with good planning on the ground."

He continued: "I think that would be the best option and right now the prices of things have risen up.

"The salaries have not increased and goods, rents, everything is all up at the moment, and those things thatare from the other European countries, if you look at the prices at the moment in the market compared to the standard of living, the party is very, very negative.

"So I would suggest if there is anything we can do to relieve this hardship on people, that would be good."

Elsewhere, a womana single mum of three shares a similar concern over rising bills.

The BankofEngland last week forecast inflation was set to hit 11 percent in the autumn as it hiked interest rates to 1.25 percent - the fifth successive rise.

According to a new study,Brexithas damaged Britain's economic competitiveness, reducing productivity and workers' real wages in the years ahead.

The Resolution Foundation said leaving the EU has reduced how open and competitive Britain's economy is.

The report, in collaboration with the LSE, said the immediate impact of the referendum result has been clear, with a "depreciation-driven inflation spike" increasing the cost of living for households, and seeing business investment falling.

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Leave-backing Londoners voice concern over cost of living 'Brexit BUT at the right time!' - Express