Monthly Archives: June 2022

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at a joint press conference. Photo / Mark Mitchell

This is not the first time Jacinda Ardern has travelled to Europe against the backdrop of disruption and tragedy.

Her first visit as Prime Minister, in 2018, sought to stake out a post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom and Europe, and to bolster relationships with like-minded leaders concerned by the chaos unleashed by United States President Donald Trump.

In 2019, she visited Paris to unveil the Christchurch Call in response to the March 15 terror attack, with French President Emmanuel Macron, one of her closes allies in Europe.

This Sunday, Ardern will leave for a tour of Spain, Belgium and the United Kingdom. She will find a continent emerging from a pandemic, and grappling with inflation and war.

The questions that hung over her first visit have been answered, to a certain extent. New Zealand has a good trade deal with the United Kingdom, a trade deal of some kind with the European Union is imminent (although ministers are keen to manage expectations about its quality), and Trumpian chaos has gone on hiatus, at least until the next presidential election.

But new and more troubling questions hang over this trip; Russia's invasion of Ukraine has dragged New Zealand into the orbit of the Nato security alliance, which risks compromising its traditional independent foreign policy, and upsetting major trading partner, China.

The tension between security and trade will colour the first two stops of the trip, first Madrid, where Ardern will be a guest at the Nato leaders summit, and Brussels, where she will attempt to advance trade talks with the European Union.

New Zealand and Nato have been "partners" since 2012, and have worked in "dialogue and cooperation" since 2001, but this is the first Nato leaders summit in memory that a New Zealand prime minister has attended. Other Asia-Pacific leaders from South Korea, Japan, and Australia were also invited, leading some to suggest this meeting will cement an informal expansion of Nato away from the Atlantic and into the Asia-Pacific.

New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich said he saw a revival of the Anzac relationship in the fact that Ardern and new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would appear at the summit together.

"There seems to be a revival in the Anzac relationship when it comes to the defence relationship," Hartwich said.

Hartwich said Ardern could score some points at Nato by mending the Australia-France relationship that had fractured when Australia nixed a multi-billion dollar French submarine when it signed up to the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal with the US and UK.

Ardern and Macron are known to get on well, bonding over their shared wonkishness. Ardern did not attack France when EU trade talks were paused for the French Presidential election, likely aiding free trader Macron against protectionist candidates to his right and left.

The challenge for Ardern at Nato is that the alliance is in the process of working out where it stands in response to global, rather than regional security challenges. New Zealand has to work out where it stands in relation to an enlarged Nato with an outlook that stretches well beyond the "North Atlantic" of the organisation's name, and into New Zealand's region.

Hartwich said this expansion is logical.

"By its name it's a regional alliance, but by its preamble - if you read the Nato Treaty the Washington treaty is very much a values alliance. The preamble makes clear that this is an alliance of democracies fighting to maintain the rule of law."

This "values" reading of Nato could see the alliance logically expand its vision to Asia and the Pacific.

The Madrid Summit is expected to agree a new "Strategic Concept", a document updated roughly every decade, which outlines the broad security picture as Nato sees it. This Strategic Concept is expected to have firm words on the threat posed by China, which could put New Zealand in an awkward position, given its strong trade ties to China.

Hartwich thinks the expansion of Nato into the Pacific is logical, if you look at Nato as a values alliance as well as a regional security pact.

"It is a defensive alliance of values, not so much a regional thing," he said.

"That would make us natural allies.

"We would want to have them here. America has a presence [in the Indo-Pacific], but even the British presence in the Indo-Pacific is increasing so it is only natural they are talking to us."

Geoffrey Miller, a geopolitical analyst at the Democracy Project, said he struggled to see what New Zealand got out of attending the summit.

"They [Nato] get New Zealand as another name on the list and they get solidarity. What does New Zealand get out of attending a Nato summit?

"We lack a long-term strategy and a long-term plan."

Miller said the fast-changing international security picture highlighted the need for the Government to set out a long-term vision of its foreign policy and security.

"We need a post-Ukraine foreign policy blueprint in my view. The world has changed in my view now."

He said New Zealand had enjoyed the "very clear guiding light" of its independent foreign policy for the past 40 years, but the challenging global security picture post-Ukraine, and New Zealand's trade dependence on China had complicated things.

He said a long-term vision was needed because Nato countries were continually making demands of New Zealand and New Zealand needed a long-term blueprint of how it should respond to them.

"We keep being asked to do stuff and we respond - we acquiesce and we say 'yes'," Miller said.

He said New Zealand should be cautious about being unwittingly dragged into an expanded Nato.

"I wonder whether this is the beginning of Nato Plus, whether Nato is expanding from a geographical alliance to a broader Western alliance."

One thing New Zealand could be asked to do is to lift spending to the Nato goal of 2 per cent of GDP (a level of spending many Nato countries struggle to meet).

Millar noted that the military demands of Nato were not backed up with trade benefits from the likes of the US and the EU.

There was an unwillingness of both blocs to contemplate that a closer security alignment with the US and EU could damage New Zealand's trading relationship with China. The EU did not seem willing to offer trade concessions in the looming FTA in return for New Zealand's security assistance over Ukraine.

Miller said that any changes to New Zealand's foreign policy that compromised its independence had to consider what it would do to New Zealand's trading relationships.

He said there were other paths New Zealand could take on Ukraine, Nato member Turkey and US-ally Israel have both sought to broker peace, without launching themselves into the middle of the US-led sanctions push.

Former defence minister and former foreign minister Gerry Brownlee cautioned against reading too much into the novelty of a prime minister attending the leaders meeting.

He said that while a prime minister attending that meeting was new, defence ministers had regularly attended Nato meetings as "dialogue partners", and that New Zealand had served under the command of the US, a Nato member, during the Iraq training mission.

"We have had various compacts at various times."

He said questions over the independent foreign policy often forgot the fact that New Zealand, more often than not, aligned itself with its traditional partners in most conflicts since World War II.

He said questions over the independent foreign policy were ones of definition, and over how it was expressed.

"You've got to think about how independent foreign policy is defined," he said.

"I've taken objection to New Zealand signing up to communiques on Five Eyes," Brownlee said, noting that Five Eyes was an intelligence-sharing pact and how he was cautious about expanding its remit into something broader.

He said New Zealand should avoid unnecessarily antagonising China.

"I'm not in favour of making an enemy when one doesn't exist.

"New Zealand is now substantially dependent on what happens in the Chinese economy. Today, millions of New Zealanders went to work in jobs that are dependent on our trading economy with China."

The trade outlook with the EU is disappointing. The EU is New Zealand's fourth largest trading partner, but exports by value to the EU have been in decline.

New Zealand imported $12.9 billion worth of goods and services, and exported $4.58b. Exports to the EU have been declining since 2018, when they were worth $6.1b.

By contrast, exports to China continue to boom.

Trade Minister Damien O'Connor warned the trade agreement with the European Union was complicated by the fact New Zealand was effectively negotiating with 27 countries.

He said concessions on issues like dairy and meat were difficult for the EU.

"We have to acknowledge the sensitivities around those products in the EU, that's why it's hard work."

O'Connor suggested that the agreement would have wins in areas other than meat and dairy.

"All those commodities and products are important to us, but we've got a lot of other products as well."

Read the rest here:

As Jacinda Ardern heads to Europe, analysts ask whether New Zealand is being dragged into Nato - New Zealand Herald

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe v Wade abortion ruling "incredibly upsetting".

Jacinda Ardern. (Source: Breakfast)

The decision is expected to lead to abortion bans in roughly half of US states.

Watching the removal of a womans fundamental right to make decisions over their own body is incredibly upsetting," Ardern said in a statement on Saturday.

Here in New Zealand we recently legislated to decriminalise abortion and treat it as a health rather than criminal issue.

That change was grounded in the fundamental belief that its a women's right to choose.

"People are absolutely entitled to have deeply held convictions on this issue. But those personal beliefs should never rob another from making their own decisions.

To see that principle now lost in the United States feels like a loss for women everywhere. When there are so many issues to tackle, so many challenges that face woman and girls, we need progress, not to fight the same fights and move backwards," she said.

Earlier, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta released a statement on Twitter.

The ruling, unthinkable just a few years ago, was the culmination of decades of efforts by abortion opponents, made possible by an emboldened right side of the court that has been fortified by three appointees of former President Donald Trump.

Many states are now bracing for protests.

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Ardern reacts to US' Roe v Wade abortion ruling overturn - 1News

Flags representing Commonwealth countries fly at the Kigali Convention Centre, the venue hosting the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Kigali, Rwanda June 22, 2022. Picture taken June 22, 2022. REUTERS/Jean Bizimana

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June 23 (Reuters) - Heads of government from Commonwealth nations will meet in the Rwandan capital Kigali on Friday and Saturday to discuss cooperation on topics ranging from green energy to rising food prices to the war in Ukraine, among others. read more

Here are some key facts about the Commonwealth and the Kigali summit, which was supposed to be held in 2020 but was twice delayed because of the COVID pandemic.

* What is the Commonwealth?

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It is a voluntary association of 54 countries that evolved gradually from the British Empire and has existed in its modern form since 1949.

* Who are its members?

The Commonwealth includes 13 countries in the Caribbean and the Americas, 19 countries in Africa, three in Europe, eight in Asia and 11 in the Pacific, with a combined population of 2.5 billion.

India accounts for 1.4 billion of its citizens, while 32 members have populations of 1.5 million or less, the smallest being Nauru, which has 10,000 inhabitants.

* Are they all former British colonies?

Most of them are, but that is not a condition for membership. The last two countries to join, Rwanda and Mozambique, have no historical ties to the British Empire.

Gabon and Togo, both former French colonies, are expected to apply to join at the Kigali summit.

* What does the Commonwealth do?

It presents itself as a network for cooperation on common goals such as protecting the environment, boosting trade, supporting democracy, promoting education and gender equality, and giving small states a louder voice on the world stage.

Although it is not a free trade zone, it calculates that its members find it 21% cheaper to trade with other members than with non-Commonwealth countries which are a similar distance away, based on an analysis of World Bank data. Factors include a common language and similar legal and commercial frameworks.

* Who heads it?

Queen Elizabeth has been head of the Commonwealth, a largely symbolic role, since her reign began in 1952. The organisation says the British monarch is not automatically its head, but its members nevertheless agreed at a meeting in London in 2018 that Elizabeth's son Prince Charles would succeed her in the role.

Charles is attending the Kigali summit, representing his mother.

* Who runs it?

It has a secretariat based in London and a secretary-general, currently Dominica's Patricia Scotland.

Commonwealth leaders will decide in Kigali whether to re-appoint her for a second term or replace her with Kamina Johnson Smith, the Jamaican foreign minister. Britain has criticised Scotland's leadership and is backing Johnson Smith, as are India and Belize.

* Who is attending the Kigali summit?

Most heads of government of Commonwealth countries are coming, including Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari, Britain's Boris Johnson and Canada's Justin Trudeau.

But South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa, India's Narendra Modi, Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif, Australia's Anthony Albanese and New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern are not expected, raising questions about the relevance of the organisation for those countries.

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Reporting by Estelle Shirbon;Editing by Alison Williams

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Factbox: Commonwealth nations meet in Rwanda - what you need to know - Reuters.com

Health Minister Andrew Little and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Mark Mitchell

OPINION:

It was in the middle of a glorious summer in January that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made a shocking prediction: winter is coming.

Lo, winter has duly arrived with all its excess baggage: Omicron, the return of the flu after two years of absence, the good old-fashioned cold.

Hospital admissions are up more from the flu than Covid and nurse numbers are down, yet another issue from Covid-19.

Despite the certainty winter would come, some seem surprised by its arrival and are now looking for who to blame for this turn of events.

Ardern's explanations for the influx on emergency departments and nurse shortages have ranged from blaming winter to blaming the former National Government.

She simultaneously blamed the nurse shortage on a global shortage and demand from other countries, and on the John Key National Government for not training more nurses or paying nurses better so there were more around this winter.

National is blaming the current Labour Government's health reforms for taking attention away from people who are actually sick, and blaming Labour's immigration settings during Covid-19 and afterwards for not doing enough to attract nurses to the land of milk and influenza.

"We anticipated this," Ardern said at one point. "We flagged that we anticipated winter would be particularly tough."

The peril there is the obvious follow-up question: If the Government forecast winter would come, how has it come to this? Why wasn't more done to prepare for it?

That question was duly asked. Ardern's response was that the Government had increased eligibility for a free flu vaccine, was working with GPs (yes, there is also a GP shortage) and was trying to share the load around hospitals. It had also provided funding for more nurses (even if, alas, it could not find the nurses). In the years before Covid, about 1.3 million flu vaccines were given each year. So far this year, just over one million flu vaccines have been dispensed, and while the rates for over-65s are high (about two thirds), those for 55 to 64-year-olds are much lower, at just 27 per cent.

Ardern daren't use the Covid-19 settings to try to contend with flu - but has urged people to keep wearing their masks as much to protect from flu as Covid.

The health debate is one Labour can't afford to lose.

According to the polls, in the voters' minds Labour has already lost to National on key metrics of the economy, housing and law and order. Its problems with the cost of living will last longer than one miserable winter.

Labour is still most trusted on health both a historical perception and because of the largely successful handling of Covid-19.

Pointing out how much worse things could have been last winter if the Government hadn't put so much effort into staying Covid-free will be little solace for those suffering this winter.

So health is the Government's OK Corral and National knows it. Winter is its best opportunity to fight on that front.

In the past week, the pressure on hospitals, the nursing shortage and delays to elective surgeries were the topics of National leader Christopher Luxon's questions to Ardern, rather than the cost of living.

Beyond proposing an easier immigration route for nurses, National has not yet itself come up with anything solid by way of solutions to the load on the health system. Its sole goal at the moment is to dent confidence in the Government's handling of it.

The Government will need to come up with something a little bit more compelling than "well, we warned you about winter," blaming a government from more than five years ago, and urging people to wear their masks. It has one more summer (and one more winter) to do that.

The new Health NZ structure kicks in from next week and the Government will be hoping that reaps results - but it won't magic up 3000 nurses.

On the good news front, winter may well give the Government a slight reprieve on the law and order front.

New Police Minister Chris Hipkins must feel as if he is something of a spring season himself, having shed the relentless grind of the Covid-19 portfolio to move to Police.

He takes over just as other issues are starting to take over from crime as a hot political issue: the plasterboard shortage and winter ailments chief among them.

It was with a new bounce in his step that Hipkins made his debut appearance as Police Minister in Parliament this week. It may be too soon to say if he is soft or tough on crime, but he was certainly loud on crime, bellowing about the apparent failings of the former National Government to do what it was now calling on Labour to do.

His exchange on Wednesday with National's police spokesman Mark Mitchell turned into something of a pantomime show.

Labour has argued National's ban on gang patches would not work, so Mitchell was asking Hipkins whether he supported the existing ban on patches in hospitals and schools the result of a members' bill ushered in by one Mark Mitchell. Hipkins said he had no plan to change it, so Mitchell asked if he would extend it. Hipkins said he had no intention to. Mitchell then ran out of questions and Labour MPs clamoured for the Speaker to give him more. The Speaker did.

Caught short, Mitchell asked the exact same questions again. Hipkins gave the exact same answer.

Mallard made an observation about deja vu and promptly gave Mitchell yet another two questions.

Sitting along from Hipkins was Poto Williams, who finally got her revenge on Mitchell by starting a slow clap.

Whether or not the change to Hipkins will have any impact on crime is unclear.

But it is certainly a lot more entertaining.

Continue reading here:

Claire Trevett: Labour Government can't afford to lose to National on health - New Zealand Herald

Outgoing Labour MP and Minister Kris Faafoi has bowed out of politics, delivering a funny and heartfelt speech to Parliament.

Faafoi, the first MP of Tokelauan descent, paid tribute to supporters and colleagues, and launched a staunch defence of his changes to public media as broadcasting minister.

PM my final note to you is to say it was a deep honour to accompany you on your visit to Tokelau, Faafoi said in his valedictory.

The time on the HMNZS Otago will have to go down as my highlight of the last 5 years. PM, the experience of going back to the place my mother and father were born and raised meant so much, and to do it accompanying you as our PM was next level.

READ MORE:* Labours sensible decision to pause on hate speech law* Points of Order: Nobody wants Covid-19 for Christmas, but new visa is an early gift for many* National declares win after 'trigger-happy' Immigration NZ leaks policy details

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Outgoing Labour MP Kris Faafoi delivers his valedictory speech in the House of Representatives debating chamber.

He also joked that 10 years after promising Jacinda Ardern $500 towards an election campaign if she danced at the Pasifika festival, he had come through with the money, providing a receipt to the prime minister during his speech.

I thought about adjusting it for inflation, but , Faafoi quipped to uproarious applause.

For months, people had been asking Labour MP Kris Faafoi when he planned to retire from politics.

When asked, hed quip back veiled pleasantries. He even claimed hed miss the press gallery too much if he ever left.

I told everyone I loved it, and I do. But theres a time. And this is it, he said on Thursday morning.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Kris Faafoi leaving with two of his three children on the day he announced his retirement from politics.

Faafoi has been in Parliament for 17 years, in various roles. He walked in as a TVNZ journalist, becoming a member of the Parliamentary press gallery.

While he deflected questions, everyone knew Faafoi had set a timer.

As the PM said, I spoke to her towards the end of last term. Family, again, was the issue, but I was convinced to stay because there were things that needed to get finished.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern finally confirmed his resignation on June 13.

Less than two weeks later, Faafoi delivered his valedictory speech to Parliament.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Kris Faafoi has been in Parliament for 17 years. He started as a journalist in the press gallery before becoming a politician.

Its his birthday. But he doesnt think being able to leave the Beehive is a birthday present, per se. Hes turning 46 a good time to leave, he said, while there was still time to start something new.

But another birthday played a far bigger role in Faafois decision to leave Parliament. On Wednesday, his youngest son turned five.

Faafoi spent the morning taking his boy, Theo, to his first day of school. Its moments like these Faafoi wants more of.

Im lucky, my kids love me, and Im happy about that. But I think Ive missed out on things that Id prefer to have been there for, for both George and Fred the older two.

With Theo, when he started school, that was my line in the sand for me to say its time to go.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Kris Faafoi has left Parliament, saying its time to spend more time with his children.

Faafoi, his partner Mae and their son Theo live in Greytown, a quaint town awash with art shops and cafs, perfect for a road trip stop just over the Remutaka Range, north of Wellington.

Faafoi left journalism to become the chief press secretary of the Opposition Labour Party for leader Phil Goff, then stood for Labour in 2010, winning the Mana electorate in a by-election.

When Ardern led the Labour Party to victory in 2017, Faafoi was made Minister of Civil Defence, Commerce and Consumer Affairs.

Faafoi decided not to stand for Mana at the 2020 election, with his family leaving Kpiti, and he voiced his plan to resign to Labour and Ardern.

His responsibilities during five years of Government have shifted often.

At various times, hes been the minister in charge of immigration, broadcasting, justice, customs and also the minister responsible for government digital services.

Its his work in broadcasting and consumer affairs which arises most in his interview on Thursday morning.

He said he doesnt have favourites, but broadcasting is a passion.

There's a saying once a journalist or always a journalist. I wanted to make sure that our country continues to have a strong Fourth Estate, he said.

He leaves Parliament as his bill, which will merge RNZ and TVNZ to create a new cross-platform public media entity, is introduced to Parliament. Another former broadcaster, Willie Jackson, has taken over responsibility for that portfolio.

It would have been nice to have been there, to get the legislation through the House and to be there on day one of the new entity, he says.

I'm pretty proud of the work. And once it's up and running, and it gets a hit of steam, I'll watch with great pride. Because I think it'll make a big difference to the media here.

In his valedictory Faafoi defended his changes.

If public media doesnt change the very people who need trusted sources of news, information and their identity wont have it available to them as previous generations have.

We know that right now those audiences are not engaging with public media.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Parliament applauds Kris Faafoi following his valedictory in the debating chamber.

As consumer affairs minister, Faafoi also introduced market studies. It opened the door for the Government to analyse how competitive certain industries were, and if they were giving consumers a good deal. The first market study was on fuel prices, in 2018. The focus then turned to the supermarket duopoly.

While those were the highs, Faafoi often faced pressure in the justice and immigration portfolios.

Immigration NZ struggled to reboot when the borders started to reopen, and the immigration restart programme announced by Faafoi have faced criticism for appearing to devalue certain areas of work.

He has faced regular questions about why nurses struggle to get residency in New Zealand, given how desperately the health sector needs more nurses.

Meanwhile, as it became clear Faafoi intended to resign, political commentators questioned if his heart was still in the game.

Faafoi said those questions started when he became less available for media interviews, which he said was due to needing to spend more time finishing his last projects while in Government.

I used to write commentary. I know how it is, he said.

I turned up to the office every day to give it 100%. I know there was some commentary at the end, just because I wasnt doing a few interviews but that did not mean my heart wasnt in it, he said.

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Kris Faafoi comes good on 10-year debt, hands proof to the PM as he says farewell to Parliament - Stuff