Monthly Archives: June 2022

1. On Brexit Anniversary, Boris Johnson's Team Struggles to Say What's Better  Bloomberg
2. What Brexit Promised, and Boris Johnson Failed to Deliver  The Atlantic
3. The legacy of the Brexit referendum is a divided, confused Britain | John Rentoul  The Independent
4. On Sixth Anniversary of Brexit, Britain Yet to Seize All of Freedom's Opportunities  Heritage.org
5. The deafening silence over Brexit's economic fallout  Financial Times
6. View Full Coverage on Google News

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On Brexit Anniversary, Boris Johnson's Team Struggles to Say What's Better - Bloomberg

The European Union and Union Jack flags are flown outside the Houses of Parliament, in London, Britain February 9, 2022. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson

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LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Dashed hopes, so far at least, that Brexit would tilt Britain's economy towards growth driven by trade and investment are threatening another of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's flagship policies: "levelling up" the regions outside of London.

Six years on from the vote to leave the European Union, the classic low-productivity British model of growth driven by consumption, supported in part by rising house prices, looks as strong as ever.

Britain has missed out on much of the global recovery in goods exports as economies re-opened from COVID-19 lockdowns, leaving it bottom among Group of Seven rich industrialised nations by this measure over the last 12 months.

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The Resolution Foundation think tank this week said that lacklustre performance reflects a more closed economy since Brexit. read more

It also represents a missed opportunity for Johnson's levelling-up agenda, which aims to reduce regional inequalities.

Had British goods exports grown in line with the average among the other six countries in the G7, they would have been worth around 38 billion pounds ($47 billion) more during the year to April 2022, based on a simple extrapolation.

This represents several billions of pounds of lost revenue for British factories and by extension the regions outside of London, since around 95% of manufacturing output takes place outside the capital, according to 2017 official data.

Manufacturing comprises only about 10% of British economic output overall.

But it is a key driver of growth and investment in many of the parts of England and Wales that voted heavily to leave the EU in 2016, such as the East Midlands and North East regions.

Unless Britain can meaningfully improve its trade performance, it could mean more missed opportunities to level up.

"The regions that probably asked for Brexit are the most likely to have seen the biggest impact negative impact from trade," said Flaheen Khan, senior economist from the Make UK manufacturing trade group.

On Wednesday the Resolution Foundation said Brexit was unlikely to result in a big restructuring of the main sectors of Britain's economy - but it would have consequences for levelling-up.

"Our assessment finds that the North East, one of the poorest regions in the UK, will be one of the hardest hit, and that Brexit will increase its existing - and large - productivity and income gaps," the think tank said.

Estimates of regional economic growth hint at the scale of the opportunity already lost.

In the first quarter of 2022, London's economy - dominated by services firms - was 2.6% larger than its level of late 2019, before the onset of COVID-19.

By comparison, no other regional economy in the United Kingdom except for Northern Ireland had fully recovered its pre-pandemic size.

Proponents of Brexit say it is a long-term project that cannot be judged over the space of a few years, before the benefits of an independent trade and regulatory policy become fully apparent.

"Regurgitations of Project Fear don't seem to get anyone anywhere," said Britain's minister for Brexit opportunities, Jacob Rees-Mogg, of this week's Resolution Foundation report. read more

Britain's government wants to boost exports of goods and services to reach 1 trillion pounds per year in current prices by the end of the decade, up from their pre-pandemic level of 700 billion pounds.

The highest rate of inflation in the G7 is likely to be a big driver behind meeting that goal but an improved underlying trade performance would go a long way to boosting economic activity across the United Kingdom.

Businesses, however, need more help to get there, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

It pointed to five practical measures that would boost trade with the EU which accounts for more than 40% of British exports, ranging from less red tape for food exports and a sales tax deal for small businesses trading digitally with the EU to arrangements for markings and testing of industrial goods.

"Businesses in the UK and EU still have good relationships and trust each other. We need decision-makers to follow our lead and negotiate practical improvements to the Brexit trade deal," said William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC.

Khan from Make UK said part of the problem for policymakers was that manufacturers had different needs in different parts of the country, with companies in the south of England seeking more spending on digital infrastructure, while those in the north were demanding better transport links.

One thing that is shared across the country is an acceptance that Brexit is now an economic reality, for better or worse.

"In an ideal world, trade would be frictionless, but they've accepted that's not going to happen and most businesses, despite the impact, are getting on with it," Khan said.

($1 = 0.8148 pounds)

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Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Toby Chopra

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Analysis: UK's Brexit woes threaten another flagship policy: levelling-up - Reuters.com

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks at a news conference during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at Lemigo Hotel, in Kigali, Rwanda June 24, 2022. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS/Pool via REUTERS

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KIGALI, June 24 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the reaction to his government's plan to scrap some trade rules governing post-Brexit trade in Northern Ireland has been "muted" and denied the move was an attempt to appeal to his lawmakers.

Britain published plans this month to unilaterally stop some checks on goods moving to Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom and challenged the role played by the European Union's court in a new clash with Brussels.

The European Commission in response launched two new legal proceedings against Britain and some of the bloc's officials have warned it could launch a trade war.

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Johnson pointed to the breakdown of a power-sharing administration in Northern Ireland as a reason for drafting the legislation, the first step in what could be a months-long process before the bill becomes law.

The Democratic Unionist Party has said it will only move to restore Northern Ireland's regional parliament if the law is passed and complained the checks on goods are too onerous for businesses.

"Generally speaking, I think it's quite interesting that the reaction around the table amongst our friends has been much more muted than I think people were expecting," Johnson told reporters on the way to Rwanda where he is attending a Commonwealth summit.

"That's because, you know, in the end, we don't want to fall out over this. We want a solution."

The new legislation is designed to simplify the rules but has drawn sharp criticism in Brussels and Washington where it is seen by many as an inflammatory move that violates an international treaty.

European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic said last week the legislation appeared to be driven by Johnson's attempt to win support with his lawmakers after he narrowly won a confidence vote this month.

"No, no, no, do you really think so? Do you really think that most Conservative MPs or most people in the country are thinking about this problem? They're not," Johnson said.

"This is an issue that is entirely to do with the balance of the political situation in Northern Ireland. And we have to respect that."

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Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Editing by Nick Macfie

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Boris Johnson sees 'muted' reaction to rewriting Brexit deal - Reuters UK

On Monday the House of Commons will vote on the Government's Bill to override aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It would give ministers the right to scrap elements of the international agreement unilaterally without permission from the EU.

The Bill is likely to pit Brexiteer MPs against their more pro-EU colleagues in what risks turning into the most bitter debate of legislation since the UK finally broke free of Brussels' orbit.

The Government's controversial legislation has already been criticised by Labour and some Conservative backbenchers, who have accused ministers of intending to breach international law with the plans.

Ms Truss unveiled the legislation in the House of Commons earlier this month saying she had been left with no choice but to introduce the legislation after a breakdown in negotiations with Brussels.

Talks have been held between the Government and the European Commission on easing frictions caused by the Protocol since October with little progress.

READ MORE ON OUR BREXIT LIVE BLOG

Unionists argue the EU's heavy-handed implementation of the Protocol, agreed as part of the 2019 Brexit withdrawal agreement, is undermining the integrity of the United Kingdom.

Ministers intend to scrap checks on goods and animal and plant products travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland imposed by Brussels and instead only carry out customs controls on those set to head to the Republic of Ireland in the south.

Stringent fines would be imposed on those exploiting the system to smuggle goods into the EU single market.

Boris Johnson's sizeable majority in the House of Commons means the Government is likely to be able to push the Bill through the lower chamber.

However, peers in the House of Lords are already vowing to amend the legislation to frustrate the Government and force it to be revoted on by MPs. Their interventions could delay the Bill by as long as a year.

Ashfield MP Lee Anderson told Express.co.uk: "I suspect that if the unelected Remainer Lords had to face general elections like us MPs then they might actually be more in touch with the British public or be out of a job.

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"We are answerable to the public unlike our Lords can basically vote whichever way they want."

Ms Truss has said the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement is currently under threat from the Protocol and the legislation is needed to maintain peace.

The Foreign Secretary told MPs in the Commons earlier this week: "Our priority as the UK Government is the Belfast Good Friday Agreement and we know that the Northern Ireland Protocol is undermining that agreement.

"We havent seen the institutions in Northern Ireland functioning since February and we know that the issues caused are baked into the Protocol, namely the customs provisions and the VAT provisions, so we do need to change that."

The DUP, the largest Unionist political party in Northern Ireland, has long opposed the protocol and is refusing to enter the power-sharing institutions at Stormont until issues with the post-Brexit settlement for the region are addressed.

It means there is currently no functioning devolved government in the province.

Leader of the DUP Sir Jeffrey Donaldson praised the Government for announcing a vote on the legislation would take place next week.

He said: "It is important that this bill now progresses rapidly through its legislative stages in the Commons before the summer recess and we will want to see that not only does the bill receive substantial support at Westminster, but that it is not subject to either wrecking amendments or indeed other amendments that would dilute the framework and impact of the bill."

The Lagan Valley MP added: "We want to see the Northern Ireland Assembly and executive restored and that can be achieved when there is a sustainable basis for doing so.

"We will continue to be condition and not calendar led as we look forward to this bill now making rapid progress."

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Huge Brexit battle to erupt: MPs in major clash as Truss' masterplan to be voted on - Express

Brexit rules have caused major shock to Britains trading landscape in the last two years. But despite voting to leave the bloc, trade is back on the up with the EU afteraconsiderable decline.

The LSE Centre for Economic Performance found that the number of trading relationships Britain has with the bloc has declined due to red tape curbing the ability of smaller firms to export.

Whats more, last month the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Government spending watchdog, warned that UK trade had missed out on much of the recovery in global trade and was lagging behind every other G7 nation.

But despite Brexit, it turns out that trade with the EU is back on the up, and trade with non-EU countries has declined.

READ MORE:POLL: Should Boris call a General Election after by-election defeat?

According to the Office for National Statistics, in April 2022, the total import of goods (excluding precious metals) increased by 0.7 percent, or 0.4 billion compared with March.

There was a 4.2 percent, or 1.1 billion rise in imports from the EU, but imports from countries outside the EU fell by 0.7 billion, or 2.6 percent.

The same can be said with exports to EU countries, which increased by 8.1 percent, or 1.2 billion in April this year.

Elsewhere, base metals and plastic and rubber both account for five percent of EU imports to the UK.

In terms of UK exports to the EU, the picture is very similar.

Like the EU, the bulk of UK exports are machinery and appliances (21 percent) and chemical products (15 percent).

Transport equipment accounts for 14 percent of trade, and mineral products and base metals make up 12 and six percent of trade respectively.

Food, beverages and tobacco is five percent of all UK exports to the bloc.

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UK exports to EU in full: Trade with EU on the up despite Brexit - Express

Joe Biden's administration in Washington has put pressure on Boris Johnson not to take measures to unilaterally axe elements of Ulster's post-Brexit arrangements. Liz Truss, who replaced Lord David Frost as the UK's Brexit negotiator in December, unveiled measures to use domestic law to override aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol last month.

According to the Government website, the Protocol Bill ensures the delicate balance of the Belfast Agreement, introduces durable solutions to fix the four key issues with the Protocol and remove[s] unnecessary costs and paperwork for businesses.

However, the Guardian has claimed Washington has issued a new warning for Brexit Britain.

A senior administration official said: Its fair to say that the administration has concerns about the legislation.

The administration does not believe that unilateral steps are going to be the most effective way to address the challenges facing the implementation of the Protocol, and that our strong desire remains to see the UK and the EU return to talks and find a negotiated agreement.

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The White House also addressed remarks made by a spokesperson last week which suggested there was no link between the UK's response to the Northern Ireland Protocol and negotiations with America.

The insider claimed: It is true that there is no formal linkage between the Protocol and a free trade agreement but the current situation does not create a conducive environment.

The UK has previously been issued with threats from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Last month, she even claimed Congress would not support a trade deal between the UK and US if the Government discarded the Northern Ireland Protocol.

READ MORE:Wanted! A Brexiteer outside Cabinet to replace Boris Johnson... is David Davis the answer?

Northern Ireland Minister Conor Burns visited Washington last week in a bid to convince staff in the White House that concerns over violence in Ulster remain as a consequence of the Protocol.

During his visit, the Eurosceptic Bournemouth West MP said: We're bringing forward primary legislation to try and resolve the challenges around the Protocol.

Essentially, to make good on our promise to the people of Northern Ireland that they would be integral within the UK's internal market, whilst at the same time protecting the EU's legitimate ambition to protect their Single Market.

Mr Burns added: We're very clear, however, that we still would like to resolve this in a negotiated way with the EU.

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But until they can broaden and deepen the mandate of negotiations they have, we have an obligation to move forward with primary legislation to protect the institutions of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement, restore devolved Government to Northern Ireland and let the new Government in Northern Ireland have access to the some 430million available to them.

Brexit-backing MPs in Westminster are also adamant that concerns about the Northern Ireland Protocol should not torpedo any transatlantic trade negotiations.

European Research Group chairman Mark Francois, who described a UK-US deal as the great prize, toldExpress.co.uklast month: We absolutely have to address this in order to uphold and maintain the Good Friday Agreement and thats an argument that I think we need to explain to our partners in the United States.

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Washington warns unilateral action on hated Brexit deal 'not conducive' to UK-US talks - Express

Britain is looking to strike an agreement with countries already worth over 33.1billion in trade and set to be boosted by a further 1.6billion a year following the deal.Negotiations between the UK and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, will be kick-started in Riyadh.

Only the US and China buy more UK goods and services than the GCC, making it a major market for British exports.

The GCC's demand for international imports is also expected to grow by 35 percent, 800billion, by 2035, creating huge new opportunities.

Brussels previously sought to secure a trade deal with the GCC, opening discussion in 1990, but was ultimately forced to abandon hopes of an agreement 2008 after repeated failures to find a breakthrough.

Ahead of the talks, Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: "Today marks the next significant milestone in our five-star year of trade as we step up the UKs close relationship with the Gulf.

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"Our current trading relationship was worth 33.1billion in the last year alone.

"From our fantastic British food and drink to our outstanding financial services, Im excited to open up new markets for UK businesses large and small, and supporting the more than ten thousand SMEs already exporting to the region.

"This trade deal has the potential to support jobs from Dover to Doha, growing our economy at home, building vital green industries and supplying innovative services to the Gulf."

UK food and drink, manufacturing and renewable energy sectors are all set to benefit under the new pact.

Tariffs on produce such as cereals, chocolate, baking products and biscuits are set to be slashed.

GCC countries portaged 625million in produce from the UK last year, with the figure set to grow substantially once a trade deal is in place.

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The talks are the latest in a series of trade negotiations started by Ms Trevelyan.

The UK is already in discussions with India, Canada and Mexico about creating new trade deals.

Agreements with individual US states are also being brokered. The first, with Indiana, was confirmed last month.

Britain is also in the final stage of accession talks to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade pact between 13 countries that makes up 13 percent of the world's GDP.

Ministers expect the UK to be approved as a full member by the end of the year.

Securing free trade deals with countries around the world has been a key part of the Government's post-Brexit strategy for what has become known as "Global Britain".

Deals with more than 70 countries have been agreed since the UK voted to leave the EU.

While many of these are rollover deals on the same terms as when Britain was a part of the trade bloc, some have been signed with improved terms or are new deals altogether.

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Brexit Britain starts talks TODAY on securing 35BILLION trade pact set to be envy of EU - Express

For many, this summer will be the first time they have visited Europe since Brexit, and with airports in disarray, driving via ferry or Eurotunnel is an increasingly appealing option.

If you plan to drive your car to France or further afield within the EU, there are several points to consider to ensure your vehicle is compliant with post-Brexit rules.

All drivers must carry their UK driving licence while driving in the EU. If it is a photocard licence (the most common type), you do not need to request an international driving permit (IDP) to drive in the EU, Switzerland, Iceland or Liechtenstein.

However, if you have an older-style paper driving licence or a driving licence issued in Gibraltar, Guernsey, Jersey or the Isle of Man, you may need an IDP. Check with the embassy of the country you are visiting.

There are three types of IDP (1926, 1949, 1968) if one is required, you can apply at a Post Office for 5.50.

Displaying a UK sticker on the rear of your vehicle is required by law if you are driving in some countries (replacing older GB stickers since September 2021), such as Spain, Cyprus and Malta.

You must also display a UK sticker if your number plate has any of the following:

However, if your number plate includes the UK identifier with the Union flag, you do not need a UK sticker to drive in many countries, such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Portugal. Again, check with the relevant embassy for requirements.

You also need to take your log book (V5C) showing your most recent/current UK address and your insurance certificate.

Some hire and lease companies do not allow their vehicles to be driven outside the UK check permissions before planning a trip abroad.

If they do allow the car to be driven outside the UK, youll need a VE103 certificate to prove that you have permission. This can be applied from through RAC Motoring Services and British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association and cost beteween 8-15.

Your vehicle must be taxed in the UK, have a valid MOT and be insured in the UK, including minimum third party cover to drive in the EU (including Ireland). You do not need a Green Card to prove your insurance, just your original insurance certificate.

Road rules vary by country, so check the laws of your destination, from speed limits to overtaking and parking. Both the AA and RAC list up-to-date requirements.

France requires all occupants of the car to carry their passport, as well as taking a reflective jacket which must be accessible without exiting the car. A warning triangle is also compulsory for anything bigger than a motorcycle.

Certain areas of France require vehicles to display a CritAir vignette a clean air windscreen sticker to identify the cars emissions and potentially restrict access. Lower emission cars are sometimes given preferential parking and driving conditions check the area in which you plan to drive.

Devices such as Sat Navs that can detect and alert drivers to speed cameras are illegal in France and drivers can face a fine of up to 1,500 for possession, even if not in use.

It is illegal to use headphones, ear buds or Bluetooth devices while driving, but completely hands-free mobile phone usage is allowed.

The maximum legal blood alcohol level for drivers in France is 0.05 per cent, compared to 0.08 per cent in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. There is no longer a legal requirement to carry a disposable breathalyser in the car.

Dogs must be secured by a harness or kept in a cage when being transported by car.

Many European motorways are toll roads. You can either choose lanes that allow you to pay with coins or cards (although not all foreign cards are accepted so have a supply of cash), or automated lanes that require a tag in your vehicle.

Emovis tags have a 10 application fee, 8 annual fee, 5 monthly service fee and refundable 20 security deposit, plus toll fees. They provide automatic payment for toll roads in France, Spain and Portugal. Discounts are sometimes available through providers such as Eurotunnel.

The AA advises using a hire company thats a member of the European car rental conciliation service scheme.

It is recommended to print your driving licence record and get a code valid for 21 days from the DVLAs share driving licence service to give the hire company access to your driving licence record.

Watch out for charges for crossing an international border.

If you are involved in a road traffic accident involving your own car in Europe, you should first contact your insurer, even if you dont want to make a claim.

Contact the police and ask for a copy of the report, and a translator if necessary. As with an accident in the UK, take photographs of the incident, including details of the other vehicles involved, exchange insurance details, take names and addresses of witnesses and dont admit liability.

In the event of an accident in a rental car you must inform the hire car supplier and local authorities within 24 hours. Its important to understand your insurance policy and whether it covers road traffic accidents involving a vehicle, and legal costs.

Your insurance company might give you a European Accident Statement form to get an agreed statement of facts. Only sign it when youre sure that you understand the situation and ask for a copy of the accident statement.

Do you have a question about travel? Email asktravel@inews.co.uk

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Driving in Europe after Brexit: A checklist for UK drivers this summer, from stickers to the correct permits - iNews

ThiseBook, produced by VoxEU/CEPR and UK in a Changing Europe, brings together leading academic researchers on trade, immigration and political economy to assess what we have learned, 18 months on from its implementation, about the impacts of Brexit on the UK economy

PDF Download

Foreword

IntroductionJonathan Portes

1 A short history of the political economy of BrexitThiemo Fetzer

2 Brexit Britain in a changing global economyAdam S. Posen and Lucas Rengifo-Keller

3 The impact of Brexit on UKEU tradeRebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson

4 Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, andthe effect on consumer pricesJan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang

5 The price impacts of trade agreementsMeredith A. Crowley, Lu Han, and Thomas Prayer

6 Brexit and UK services tradeJun Du and Oleksandr Shepotylo

7 The economics of UK financial services post BrexitSarah Hall

8 The economics of the UKs post-Brexit immigration systemJonathan Portes

9 How is the end of free movement affecting the low-wage labour forcein the UK?Madeleine Sumption

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The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned? | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal - voxeu.org