Monthly Archives: April 2022

As the earnings season gets underway, all eyes are on companies performance as markets will be gauging how big names across various sectors have been navigating inflation, rising interest rates, and the Russia-Ukraine war. According to Morgan Stanley (MS) Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and CIO Mike Wilson, there are two things that investors should focus on during this critical earnings season.

It's really about, I think, two things. Number one, what did the companies guide to for 2Q and the rest of the year? I think that will be a real mixed bag, Wilson told Yahoo Finance Live. We have some strong views that consumer goods companies probably have to lower the bar a bit for obvious reasons. Maybe the services companies could see something tick up. Those are two pretty good examples of differences on the guidance.

The corporate logo of financial firm Morgan Stanley is pictured on the company's world headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City, January 20, 2015. Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley said it would pay a smaller portion of revenue in bonuses to its bankers and traders this year even in a better revenue environment. The bank reported a drop in fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, missing estimates, as it deferred fewer bonus payouts and unexpected market swings hit its division that trades bonds, currencies and commodities. REUTERS/Mike Segar (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS LOGO)

The second thing investors should keep their eyes on, Wilson said, is how stocks react to positive news. He and Morgan Stanley believe that companies are now peaking in terms of margins and profitability.

But then I think the other thing that we have to really watch is, how does the stock trade even on good news? Because it's our view that this is pretty much as good as it gets, right? That the margins now are going to deteriorate, he added.

Wilson joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss earnings season, tech stocks, inflation, growth, and the outlook for the economy. His thesis that earnings will only go downhill from here echoes that of other strategists who predict that the Federal Reserves rate hike campaign to quell inflation will bring forth a significant slowdown in growth. Other experts see inflation peaking concurrently this earnings season as the Fed battles surging prices.

For now, however, Wilson believes it will be difficult for companies not to beat a bar that has already been lowered throughout Q1 2022 in light of unexpected market turbulence such as geopolitical risks.

I think the first quarter itself will be fine, he said. I mean, companies do a really good job of managing the quarter that we're in. So there's no reason to think that we're not going to see companies beat what has been a lowered bar. So one thing I would point out is that earnings did come down over the course of the quarter, earnings estimates for the first quarter, and now companies will likely beat that.

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But while companies are benefiting from strong demand consumers are spending despite facing record levels of inflation the S&P 500 (^GSPC) continues to grapple with supply-side pressures as costs pick up. In any case, Wilson says its too early to say whether or not this will be the last quarter of earnings growth for the S&P.

But I do think earnings growth is going to decelerate further from what is being modeled, he said. The problem is that the rest of the year, [The Street has] the margins going back up. So I think that will come in. You could still get positive growth. But it's going to be low single digits, maybe mid-single digits at best. And that doesn't justify 19 times earnings in our view.

Thomas Hum is a writer at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @thomashumTV

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Morgan Stanley analyst breaks down the 'fire and ice' recession indicators - Yahoo Finance

On Monday, the Boston Marathon hosted 28,000 runners. Russians and Belarusians were not allowed to race.

On Wednesday, the All England Club announced players from Russia and Belarus are banned from playing in this years Wimbledon. This includes mens world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev of Russia and women's world No. 4 Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus.

These decisions are made under the guise of Russias invasion of Ukraine that, in the words of the All England Club, unjustified and unprecedented military aggression will not be tolerated. But if organizers were being honest, theyd acknowledge its really about virtue signaling. And not just any virtue signaling, but the virtue signaling of the day.

Because if they did care about unjustified and unprecedented military aggression, no Chinese players would be allowed at the All England Club in June, which (as of now) they will be. And no Chinese runners would have been allowed to compete in Mondays marathon, which they were. In fact, one primary sponsor of the marathon was Wanda Sports Group based in Beijing.

What this is really about is optics, the organizational equivalent of putting the Ukrainian flag on your Twitter profile. To think otherwise would be to ignore what these organizations have and are ignoring.

Whats happening in Ukraine is sad, tragic and unjust. But on the scale of bad things, it isn't more "unjustified" than what's happening to the Uyghurs in China.

But again, no one is banning Chinese athletes.

Banning Russia from World Cup competition is one thing, because the team is playing under the Russian flag. Banning individuals because of their country of birth is nothing more than guilt by uncontrollable association.

The policy drew scorn from multiple top voices in tennis, including Novak Djokovic who said, "The players, the tennis players, the athletes have nothing to do with [the war]. When politics interferes with sport, the result is not good."

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The politicization of everything has led to the likes of world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev not being allowed to play in Wimbledon simply because of where he was born. (Michael Wagstaffe/Yahoo Sports illustration)

Following the All England Clubs ban, a group of Ukrainian tennis players demanded on Wednesday their Russian counterparts declare where they stand on the invasion of Ukraine.

In times of crisis, silence means agreeing with what is happening, read a statement from the Ukrainian group. We have noticed that some Russian and Belarusian players at some point vaguely mentioned the war, but never clearly stating that Russia and Belarus started it on the territory of Ukraine.

That sounds all well and good, except that many, if not all, of these Russian athletes likely have family in Russia whom they might fear could be, shall we say, taken care of if they were to speak out against the motherland. So no, silence doesnt always mean agreement.

This has become an all-too-common tactic, demanding allegiance or else. Its led to the politicization of everything, including marathons and tennis tournaments. To manage public perception and by extension thwart any potential backlash the likes of the Boston Athletic Association and the All England Club signal their virtue by joining the trending movement of the moment.

Given the profile of The Championships in the United Kingdom and around the world, it is our responsibility to play our part in the widespread efforts of Government, industry, sporting and creative institutions to limit Russias global influence through the strongest means possible, read the All England Clubs statement.

Really? Where were you when Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2014? Or after Russia started conducting airstrikes in Syria back in 2015?

Nope, this is all about playing to the news cycle, and once it moves on and it will; it always does so will their responsibility ... to limit Russia's global influence" ... even though the Ukrainian people will still be in need of support, just like the Uyghurs are now, just like the Bosnians were in the '90s, a few years after the cameras left there, just as countless others have been only to be back-burnered when a "more important" issue of the day captures the media's attention.

Dont kid yourself. This is a public relations move. Nothing more.

This column originally appeared in Yahoo Sports' daily newsletter, Read & React. Click here to subscribe.

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Wimbledon's ban of Russian, Belarusian players latest sad example of politicization of everything - Yahoo Sports

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance Live in an exclusive interview on Thursday that she sees the case for interest rates to move expeditiously higher in order to pump the brakes further on surging inflation. And with the Fed growing increasingly hawkish in its endeavor to lower prices, uncertainty remains as to when month-over-month inflation will turn around.

Deutsche Bank (DB) Wealth Management CIO for the Americas Deepak Puri believes that prices are currently at their peak, and inflation will ease as the year moves forward.

I think the narrative seems to be that the March, April numbers that we're going to see, especially on the CPI and PPI side, might be the high-water mark, Puri told Yahoo Finance Live. ... There were some green shoots in the last CPI number. It was the slowest month-over-month over the last five months increase that we saw.

Puri joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss global market trends, volatility, inflation, and Fed policy. He pointed to the lowering of prices of some physical products such as used cars in the March inflation report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as being a positive sign that a reversal could soon be seen.

Inflation hit another record high at 8.5% for March a level not seen since 1981. Prices rose 1.2% from the previous month following a 0.8% monthly rise in February. Food, shelter, and gasoline were the biggest contributors to the jump in overall prices. The next CPI report covering the month of April is scheduled for May 11.

But although Puri believes the worst of the month-over-month inflation rate increases may soon be past, he acknowledged the risk that the Russia-Ukraine war may have on areas such as agriculture. The conflict has already taken a sizable toll on gas prices throughout the U.S.

It remains to be seen [what impact] growing agricultural prices are going to have, he said. This is really coming from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which is going to have an impact on agricultural commodities, which in turn would keep the nominal number pretty high.

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And as the Fed appears set to become increasingly aggressive in its campaign of interest rate hikes, investors are concerned that the economy may be cast into a recession amid geopolitical risks. Analysts and experts are sounding the alarm of an impending significant slowdown in growth as runaway inflation is reeled in.

Puri noted that his wealth management clients are becoming hesitant to put new money to work. He says the fixed income market and its investors are experiencing a reckoning of capital destruction in light of the inflationary environment.

That is something the fixed income investors are not used to, he said. So really the big questions and concerns that I'm getting is [whether this is] the inflection point for fixed income, whether we need to make dramatic changes to the fixed income part of their multi-asset portfolio. And I think that's something we've been advocating for quite some time. Really, the big concern is on the plain vanilla bond portfolio that has somewhat of an intermediate or long duration.

Thomas Hum is a writer at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @thomashumTV

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April inflation will be the high-water mark: Deutsche Bank Wealth Management CIO - Yahoo Finance

Jamie Dimon, Chair and CEO of JPMorgan ChaseJ. Lawler Duggan/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

JPMorgan has asked hybrid employees to come into the office at least 3 days a week.

The bank is tracking ID swipes to monitor staffers' office attendance.

One executive described there being a "fear of God" and "panic" over the attendance quotas.

JPMorgan has started tracking staffers' office attendance, and employees say it's creating an atmosphere of mistrust and panic.

Insider reported Wednesday that the banking giant has taken to monitoring employee ID swipes in order to enforce its return-to-office policies, citing four people with direct knowledge of the program. This data helps generate reports that are then used to enforce in-office quotas.

JPMorgan has asked hybrid employees to work from the office at least three days a week, according to a copy of an internal email viewed by Insider.

In a recent letter to shareholders, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said 50% of the bank's global employees must return to the office five days a week, 40% can follow a hybrid schedule with some days at home and some in the office, and the remaining 10% can work remotely full-time. The bank employs more than 270,000 people.

The tracking and enforcement actions have stoked frustrations about micromanagement.

"At JPMorgan, nobody trusts you," a London-based technology staffer told Insider. "The higher-ups don't trust you to do your job if they're not constantly watching you in the office."

A senior asset-management executive also based in London told Insider the return-to-office measures aren't a hit with managers either, saying some appeared "deathly afraid" of their teams falling short of 100% compliance.

"I don't know whether it's because they themselves are too timid or whether it's because the fear of God has been put into them by a bank manager," the executive said. "But every time there's something that requires participation, you sense the panic."

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Both London-based employees told Insider they're now looking for work elsewhere as a result.

Read the full Insider story here.

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JPMorgan employees describe the 'fear of God' and 'panic' as the company tracks their office attendance - Yahoo Finance

Weekly unemployment claims held near their lowest levels since the 1960s, with a strong labor market and improving levels of unemployment remaining a bright spot in the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended April 16: 184,000 vs. 180,000 expected and an upwardly revised 186,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended April 9: 1.417 million vs. 1.459 million expected and an unrevised 1.475 million during prior week

First-time filings for unemployment benefits remained below 200,000 for a ninth consecutive week. As of last week, the four-week moving average for new jobless claims, which smooths out volatility in the weekly data, stood at just 177,250. Throughout 2019 before the pandemic, new claims averaged about 218,000 per week. And last month, jobless claims reached their lowest level since 1968 at 166,000.

Continuing claims, which tally the number of Americans collecting benefits for multiple weeks, have also declined sharply to reach multi-decade lows. These came in below 1.5 million for a back-to-back week to reach their lowest level since 1970.

The weekly jobless claims data have served as an ongoing reminder of the tightness in the current labor market. Job openings have far outpaced new hires a phenomenon many companies this quarterly earnings season have been quick to acknowledge.

"Transportation and labor markets remain tight," Andre Schulten, Procter & Gamble chief financial officer, said during the company's earnings call Wednesday morning. "Labor availability is certainly a stretch, not for P&G directly, but more for our supplier base."

Companies in other industries have also highlighted these concerns. Bank of America CFO Alastair Borthwick said during the firm's earnings calls earlier this week that the bank's clients "are definitely seeing supply chain challenges" that have extended to the workforce.

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"We've also seen inflation, and we're seeing labor and wage pressure," Borthwick said.

And rising labor costs as companies compete for talent could ultimately exert even further pressure on corporate profit margins.

"For companies, labor costs, which account for roughly 70% of total costs, are far more important that materials costs," Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. "While wage gains are not keeping up with price increases, building cost pressures are a risk for company bottom lines."

"Before-tax corporate profits rose 25% year-over-year in Q4 2021 after 27% in Q3 and 69% in Q2. But with the Fed moving to dampen demand, how long will businesses be able to pass on increasing cost?" she added. "The silver lining may come from a rebalancing of labor supply and demand, which could provide relief to businesses on wages going forward."

This post is breaking. Check back for updates.

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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Jobless claims hold near their lowest levels since the 1960s - Yahoo Finance

Inflation has touched nearly every area of the economy, including the hospitality sector.

According to celebrity chef Wolfgang Puck, restaurant suppliers have raised prices "tremendously," forcing him to rethink how to avoid passing on the cost to his customers.

"We just have to engineer the menu a little different so not everything is expensive," the restaurateur said on Influencers with Andy Serwer.

Puck has noticed inflation particularly in food items like beef, fish, and vegetables. The price of a pound of beef tenderloin for his restaurants, he noted, rose by nearly 40% from $36 to $52.

"That was really, really hard," Puck said, particularly because gourmet steak is a classic on his menus.

US-Austrian chef Wolfgang Puck speaks during the 92nd Annual Academy Awards Governors Ball press preview in Hollywood on January 31, 2020. (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP)

As a result, Puck and his workers have tried to "balance the menu," though he did acknowledge that his restaurants have also raised prices on some items, like steak.

"Not everything is expensive, because soon we're going to come to where a really good steak will cost $95 to $100," he said. "It's getting a little expensive."

The Austrian-born chef has elected to lean in to other menu items and focus on enhancing their quality instead.

"Yes, if you want a really good piece of meat, it's very expensive," he said, "but we also can give you a good meal without having that meat."

Puck's restaurants haven't been the only ones adapting to inflation. In response to rising costs, a slew of major restaurant chains have raised prices in recent months, including McDonald's (MCD), Chipotle (CMG), and Cracker Barrel (CBRL).

Food prices rose 7.9% in February compared to the same month last year, marking the sharpest rise since 1981, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported last month. The trend is unlikely to stop. Food-away-from-home prices are expected to increase between 5.5% and 6.5% this year, the USDA said.

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Suppliers have also been an issue for companies. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday said recent eye-popping inflation data fails to fully capture the "true magnitude" of rising costs.

He cited suppliers asking for 20% or 30% price increases for some parts between 2021 and 2022, which far exceeds the 8.5% year-over-year rise in consumer prices in March reported by the federal government last week.

Puck, who co-founded three companies that operate more than 50 restaurants worldwide, has noticed a similar issue, particularly due to the ongoing labor shortage in the U.S.

"Truck drivers, they're hard to find," Puck said. "They couldn't deliver the food. The people who had warehouses ... they had to pay them overtime to deliver at midnight because there are so few people who are working."

Another source of mounting costs for restaurants are the rising wages for employees.

Last year, as dining and travel habits returned to some semblance of normal, the high demand for workers in leisure and hospitality made it the only occupation that saw wage increases outpace inflation, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported. Hourly wages for those workers jumped 11.8% in March compared to a year ago.

The challenge of attracting new employees and retaining old ones makes up the "hardest part" of running a restaurant during the pandemic, Puck said.

"A lot of employees in our industry changed their lifestyle," he said. "They said, 'We don't want to work on Mother's Day, on Christmas Eve, or New Year's Eve, Saturday, Sunday.' ... A lot of these people didn't want to come back."

Max is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

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Heres how Wolfgang Pucks restaurants have responded to inflation - Yahoo Finance