Monthly Archives: April 2022

Theres a semiconductor supply crunch, the cost of tooth fillings is spiking in Japan, sofas in Britain are becoming pricier, and American breweries are scrambling to find enough aluminum cans for their beer. All these economic headaches can be traced back to Russian President Vladimir Putins decision to invade Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has sent shockwaves across global commodities markets as many of Ukraines most vital exports grind to a halt under Putins war machine and new waves of international sanctions begin shutting off Russian industries from the global markets. Western policymakers are spending the bulk of their time trying to fight rising energy prices and figure out how to wean off Russian oil and gas, not to mention feed the millions of people who relied on Russian and Ukrainian grain.

But other industries are trying to weather their own supply shocks caused by the war. Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, are something like global superstores, playing key roles in the global production, manufacturing, or export of such vital commodities as neon, palladium, nickel, wood, ammonium nitrate, and aluminum. Beyond higher prices at the gas pumps and economic pressure from inflation, the knock-on effects of Putins invasion are beginning to trickle into new and unsuspecting corners of the global supply chain in ways that show the economic reverberations from the war in Ukraine are far from over.

Theres a semiconductor supply crunch, the cost of tooth fillings is spiking in Japan, sofas in Britain are becoming pricier, and American breweries are scrambling to find enough aluminum cans for their beer. All these economic headaches can be traced back to Russian President Vladimir Putins decision to invade Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has sent shockwaves across global commodities markets as many of Ukraines most vital exports grind to a halt under Putins war machine and new waves of international sanctions begin shutting off Russian industries from the global markets. Western policymakers are spending the bulk of their time trying to fight rising energy prices and figure out how to wean off Russian oil and gas, not to mention feed the millions of people who relied on Russian and Ukrainian grain.

But other industries are trying to weather their own supply shocks caused by the war. Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, are something like global superstores, playing key roles in the global production, manufacturing, or export of such vital commodities as neon, palladium, nickel, wood, ammonium nitrate, and aluminum. Beyond higher prices at the gas pumps and economic pressure from inflation, the knock-on effects of Putins invasion are beginning to trickle into new and unsuspecting corners of the global supply chain in ways that show the economic reverberations from the war in Ukraine are far from over.

Neon is a prime example. The noble gas is required to manufacture semiconductor chips, which power everything from smartphones and laptops to cars. The gas is a byproduct of Russian steel manufacturing, which is then sent to Ukraine to be purified and in turn shipped to semiconductor producers abroadduring peacetime, that is.

Neon is an important element in semiconductors, because its used in the lithography tools, said Peter Hanbury, a semiconductor expert at Bain & Company. These are the most critical part of the semiconductor manufacturing process.

Around half of the worlds semiconductor-grade neon comes from just two Ukrainian companies, both of which were forced to shutter their operations amid the Russian invasion. One of the companies is based in Mariupol, currently under siege by Russian forces; the other is based in the vital port town of Odesa, another city on Russias hit list.

This has left some of the worlds largest suppliers of semiconductors, already grappling with a supply crunch from the COVID-19 pandemic, scrambling to find alternative sources of the gas. South Korea, a major chip manufacturer, immediately removed its import tariffs on neon, while ASML Holding, a key chip supplier, swiftly moved to secure other neon supplies.

If the situation gets protracted, we are very concerned that its impact on the economy will likely expand, South Koreas Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki said last month.

Its not the first time that Russias military advances have rattled the semiconductor industry: In 2014, concerns surrounding Russias invasion of Crimea sent neon prices skyrocketing by 600 percent, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. That spooked major semiconductor manufacturers, which moved to store extra reserves in case of another supply shock and have now stockpiled enough neon to weather the economic storm in the short term.

The actions that were taken in response to that crisis are the things that are setting up the industry pretty well to deal with it now, Hanbury said.

Micron, an Idaho-based technology company and one of the largest chip producers in the United States, says it has supplies for the next few months. Right now, we do not expect any negative impact to our near-term production volumes, but this is an evolving situation, a spokesperson for Micron said. We have sufficient supply for the next few months and are taking steps to secure additional supply for a longer period.

For smaller companies that werent equipped with these reserves and are thereby more vulnerable to price and supply shocks, the loss of Ukraines neon output has been more painful. If the war drags on and vendors existing neon stores are depleted, experts say these disruptions could come to be felt across the entire semiconductor manufacturing industry. If vendors run out of their inventory and struggle to secure alternative neon supplies, it could sort of bring a halt to chip production to different extents, said Gaurav Gupta, a semiconductor analyst at Gartner, a technology research firm. That could be the worst-case scenario.

Its not just neon, either. Fears of market disruptions also pushed up the price of palladium, a platinum-like metal, to a seven-month high in Marcha spike that has been felt most clearly across the automobile industry, where it is used in catalytic converters. In Japan, these skyrocketing costs have had a knock-on effect for dentists: The price of tooth fillings, which use palladium, is spiking, causing a government panel to approve price hikes for such procedures covered by national health insurance plans. More than one-third of Japans palladium imports came from Russia in 2021; globally, Russian mines account for nearly 40 percent of palladium production.

The price of nickel, another metal used in stainless steel and battery production, has also spiked because of the war. Russia is the fourth-largest nickel producer in the world, especially through its mining giant Nornickel. In March, fears of supply shortages sent the metals price shooting up by 110 percentand pushed the London Metal Exchange to halt trading.

Still, some analysts say the actual supply of nickel may not dip as dramatically as other commodities caught in the crossfire of the war and ensuing sanctionsdespite price fluctuations from nervous traders. As far as we are aware, the reality of the situation is that for the moment, there has been no impact or very minimal impact, really, on the utilization of that Nornickel material around the world, said Andrew Mitchell, the director of nickel research at Wood Mackenzie.

American breweries are also feeling an economic pinch, as both Russia and Ukraine are among the worlds top suppliers of barley, a key ingredient in beer. Russia is also a top producer of aluminum, and supply disruptions from the war and aftershocks of the global pandemic have left breweries scrambling to find stable and affordable supplies of aluminum cans to package their beer.

In the lumber market, uneasy commodities traders and Western companies efforts to shed Russian suppliers in anticipation of more sanctions on Moscow are shaking up prices before theres even any drop in lumber supplies. British furniture suppliers are warning customers that their sofas and other furniture are becoming more expensive as the war drives up the price of timber. By April, European timber prices increased 35 percent from prewar prices, driven in part by skittish markets in expectation of supply reductions that have yet to take shape. (In the United States, meanwhile, the price of lumbertimber that has been cut and processeddipped amid a red-hot real estate market cooling off as mortgage rates go up.)

Although Russia accounts for nearly a quarter of the global softwood lumber trade, more than half of its exports go to China, which has maintained trade relations with Russia throughout the war, according to Fastmarkets RISI, a market analysis firm.

But these price fluctuations are forcing countries to reassess existing export and import arrangements, all part of a trend that is shaking up the contours of the global lumber markets.

At a minimum, were going to have a big reshuffling of global trade, said Dustin Jalbert, a lumber economist with Fastmarkets RISI. That reshuffling of supplyeven if theres not a net impact in terms of actual productionits going to be very chaotic as global buyers are trying to detach themselves from Russian supplies.

As Russian forces advance into Ukraines Donbas region, economists, aid agencies, and big international organizations warn that things could get worse before they get better.

The war is supercharging a three-dimensional crisisfood, energy, and financethat is pummeling some of the worlds most vulnerable people, countries, and economies, U.N. Secretary-General Antnio Guterres said in a press conference. The impact of the war is global and systemic.

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Putin's War Threatens Neon, Palladium, and Aluminum Supplies - Foreign Policy

If you listened to some Republican politicians reactions as the Ukraine crisis was developing, you could be excused for thinking the late Republican Sen. Joseph McCarthy may have been retroactively right when he claimed in the 1950s that Soviet spies, sympathizers and advocates had infiltrated the U.S. political system.

Paradoxically, 70 years later, it turns out that those sympathizers are not communist saboteurs undermining the American republic, but Republican activists, influencers, political operators and even members of Congress.

The point of departure of any analysis of Republican positions on Russia is that there is a generally familiar and known commodity called the Republican Party, and that it has discernible foreign policy principles and values. If such an analysis was conducted in the 1980s or 90s, the reference would be clear and the term Republican recognizable. But today, this is an erroneous and misleading assumption: that Republican Party is no longer in existence.

The entire party has turned RINO, meaning Republican in Name Only. The word Republican has lost all its previous meanings. Instead, there is a conspiracy-inclined, angry Trump cult that goes by the name Republican. It is mostly white, predominantly rural and constitutes the Red America that voted twice for Donald Trump. It is not remotely connected to the entity previously known as the Republican Party.

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The new version is first and foremost an antidemocratic party: its values, principles and policies are negatively defined by what they are against, not what they are for.

They are anti-coastal elites dictating cultural norms and language, anti-liberal, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-immigrant, anti-minorities and, most importantly, anti-government.

This most certainly is not the party of Reagan, nor that of George H.W. Bush, nor even George W. Bush. This is a new political phenomenon, molded, shaped and willingly taken over by Trump, Trumpian populism and cultural Trumpism.

The last Republican presidents the Bushes, Reagan, Gerald Ford, together with the likes of Henry Kissinger, James Baker III, George Shultz, Brent Scowcroft, Colin Powell and John McCain would today not be regarded by Republican voters or members of Congress as real Republicans.

This background is important for understanding why eight Republican members of the House of Representatives voted against stripping Russia and Belarus of their preferred trade status with the United States in light of the Ukraine war. All eight are shiny and noisy debris in the Trump orbit.

Then there is Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who last month called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a thug. A Republican senator, Rand Paul, meanwhile, said that his Republican colleague Ted Cruz only supported sanctions on Russias energy exports to help the oil industry in his home state of Texas.

That Trump adored, admired and was enchanted by Russian President Vladimir Putins autocratic, bullying, brutal, police-state-style of governance is not new.

Putin is very smart. When he declared a part of Ukraine independent, I said, How smart is that? said an astute American president who wanted to buy Greenland, exchanged love letters with North Koreas Kim Jong Un, considered himself a stable genius and recommended that Americans drink delicious bleach in order to fight the Chinese virus.

But what is new is Trumps success in instilling his adulation of Putin and derision of NATO into the minds of so many other Republicans, from voters to lawmakers. In fact, a recent poll showed that among Western nations, the one in which the largest percentage of the population blames the United Statesfor the war in Ukraine is the United States.

That is why the denunciations of Putin by some senior Republicans suggest the party is exhibiting schizophrenia. Because while its undoubted leader, Trump, admires Putin, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell aka Moscow Mitch recently described Putin as a ruthless thug who invaded another sovereign country and killed thousands of innocent people.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, who went out of his way over the years to prove his complete servitude to Trump, suggested in a recent tweet that Russian generals should assassinate Putin, while Nikki Haley, Trumps UN ambassador when he praised Putin repeatedly, is now calling the Russian invasion a war for freedom and not just a war for Ukraine. Where was she when Trump wanted to stop all military aid to Ukraine unless it opened an investigation against the son of his political opponent?

The remnants of the old Republican Party, the establishment wing that has failed to stop its takeover by the Trump grassroots element, is trying to talk tough on Ukraine. But there is a strong and enduring sentiment among Republicans to be suspicious and averse to liberal internationalism which invariably involves foreign intervention, often with a substantial military component to it.

This feeds into another conservative-Republican tradition: isolationism. That is why the Trumpist Republican Party is equally hostile to both liberal democrats and neoconservatives who find themselves in the same foreign policy category.

Some have adopted a convenient, middle-of-the-road Putin is bad, but approach. On the one hand, they blame the United States for sponsoring and encouraging NATO expansion that allegedly caused the war. And on the other, they criticize the Biden administration for not arming Ukraine early and heavily enough with sophisticated platforms and systems.

All this shows that, right now, there is no Republican Party in terms of the political party that once represented and expressed American conservatism. Furthermore, the new mutation has no coherent foreign policy other than one principle: opposing whatever step is being taken by President Joe Biden.

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For the Putin-admiring Trump cult, Ronald Reagan would be just another RINO - Haaretz

Mayor Sergei Sobyanin detailed an employment plan worth $41 million in an effort to mitigate the dearth in jobs.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Moscow's mayor says 200,000 Russians in the city are likely to soon be without work.

Hundreds of Western companies have distanced themselves from Russia, creating a dearth in jobs.

Some global firms pledged to continue paying their local workers, though it's unclear for how long.

Moscow's mayor said on Monday that hundreds of thousands of city residents could lose their jobs as Western companies suspended or pulled their operations from Russia.

"According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs," Mayor Sergei Sobyanin wrote in an official blog post.

In the post, Sobyanin said Moscow had approved an employment-support program worth 3.36 billion rubles, or roughly $41 million, that would supply temporary jobs or training to those without work.

Sobyanin wrote that about 58,000 employees were expected to benefit from the program and that Russia would provide a monthly allowance for children and loans for small and medium-size businesses.

Sobyanin's comments came as Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to deny Western sanctions had affected Russia's economy.

"We can now confidently say that such policy (of sanctions) towards Russia has failed," he said on Monday. "The economic blitzkrieg strategy didn't work. Moreover, the initiators themselves couldn't get away with the sanctions."

More than 750 companies have publicly announced that they will cut operations in Russia to some degree since the invasion of Ukraine began, according to the Yale School of Management.

Some companies have pledged to continue paying their Russian workers while they're closed in the country, though it's unclear how long they plan to sustain their support.

McDonald's, one of the first major businesses to withdraw from Russia, said its store closures in the country cost the company $50 million a month because it kept its about 62,000 local workers on the payroll. Some of its locations are still open because the franchisees who own and operate those restaurants have refused to close, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Story continues

Sobyanin's post indicated that Moscow was still grappling with a long list of crises. City authorities will discuss in the next two weeks how the capital will maintain its stock of medicines without imports and how it will keep its hospitality industry afloat, he wrote.

"There is a lot of work to be done, the results of which will appear only in a few years," Sobyanin wrote.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Despite Putin's claims that the West's 'economic blitzkrieg strategy didn't work,' Moscow's mayor says the city is about to lose 200,000 jobs - Yahoo...

This is a subscriber-exclusive edition of Peacefield, a newsletter about the survival of liberal democracy in the United States, plus contrary, often curmudgeonly takes about everything from nuclear weapons to classic rock.

For most of the Christian world, Easter is over. For Orthodox Christians, however, Easter week has just begunand Russia, the largest Orthodox country in the world, is still relentlessly pursuing the invasion and barbaric destruction of its mostly Orthodox neighbor, Ukraine. In fact, the renewed Russian offensive in the Donbas, replete with day and night bombardment of mostly Orthodox, mostly Russian-speaking areas in eastern Ukraine, began just after Russians and Ukrainians observed Palm Sunday.

I note this because I, too, am an Orthodox Christian, and I am watching one nominally Orthodox nation try to slaughter another.

In most of my comments on the Russian war against Ukraine, Ive tried, as best I can, to provide you with dispassionate analysis. But I hope this week youll allow me a few personal observations as I head toward Easter. I realize that sometimes the cold equations of political analysis can seem far removed from our emotions, and so I thought I would share with you some of my own.

This page is exclusively available to Atlantic subscribers.

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Putin's Unholy War - The Atlantic

Bill Browder, a former American banker and one of Moscows most wanted, will not stop speaking out against serial murderer Vladimir Putineven if it means having to always look over his shoulder for the Russian presidents cronies sent after him.

Ive been threatened with death, with kidnapping, with eight Interpol arrest warrants, with all sorts of other terrible things from Russia. Ive been arrested while traveling in Spain and Switzerland, he tells co-host Molly Jong-Fast in this bonus episode of The New Abnormal.

Subscribe to The New Abnormal on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Amazon Music, or Overcast.

Browder also details stories of other people who have spoken out against Putin, who have been poisoned, much like Alexei Navalny, or arrested. But that still isnt deterring him from speaking out and debunking myths about the leader, such as one he describes in his book, Freezing Order.

Theres no safety anywhere when these people are after you, he says. They found me in Aspen, Colorado. They ambushed me outside The Daily Show when I was launching my first book.

So how does Browder see Russias war with Ukraine playing out? At least one of three ways, including Putin losing or moving on to the next country if he does win.

People really need to know what Putin is capable of, he says.

Listen to The New Abnormal on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon and Stitcher.

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Putin Hunted Me Down All Over the World - The Daily Beast

Russian president Vladimir Putin plans to carry out forced mobilization in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are aimed at declaring forced mobilization. After it is completed, Russias FSB plans to throw the mobilized Ukrainians to the hottest spots of the front to storm the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the control of barrage detachments. In fact, this is an attempt to destroy Ukraine at the hands of Ukrainians themselves," the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine posted on Telegram, Ukrinform reports.

The Chief Directorate of Intelligence notes that personal data of residents of the temporarily occupied territories are collected allegedly for residents to receive "humanitarian aid" or social benefits. In reality, the data will be used at "referendums". On the day of the vote, FSB officers will fill out ballots using the information obtained without the consent and physical presence of the Ukrainians themselves.

According to the Ukrainian intelligence, this special operation pursues the following goals: eliminating members of the Ukrainian ethnic group; conducting propaganda activities to impose on the population of Russia and the world the myth that "the population of the regions liberated from the Nazis began to fight against nationalist battalions."

"It is another crime of the Putin regime against Ukraine and proof of the genocide against the Ukrainian nation," the Chief Directorate of Intelligence underscores.

On February 24, 2022, Russia expanded its military aggression against Ukraine, launched in 2014, and began mass bombing of peaceful Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages. The Russian military unleashed mass terror in the temporarily occupied territories. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Territorial Defense Forces are fiercely resisting the Russian invaders and inflicting heavy losses on them.

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Putin plans to force mobilized Ukrainians to storm positions of Ukraines Armed Forces intel report - Ukrinform

Russian and Belarusian tennis players will be banned from competing at this year's Wimbledon, in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine, according to a report.

If the ban, reported by sports website Sportico, is confirmed, stars including world number two Daniil Medvedev, number eight Andrey Rublev and Belarus' Aryna Sabalenka, would be prevented from playing in the third grand slam of 2022.

The All England Club, which holds the tournament in southwest London this summer, would become the first tennis organisation to refuse Russian players outright.

Russia captures first city in new offensive - live updates

The news comes as Russia faces continued pressure from the West to end its invasion of Ukraine - which has forced millions of people to flee their homes.

On the women's side, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (ranked world number 15), Daria Kasatkina (number 26) and Veronika Kudermetova (number 29) would be among those affected by the ruling.

Belarusian players, Sabalenka (number four) and Victoria Azarenka (number 18), would also be affected.

Belarus has been supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin has said that the reported ban is unacceptable and that the tournament itself will suffer.

The ATP and WTA Tours and the International Tennis Federation have allowed players from Russia and its ally Belarus to continue competing, but they are barred from displaying their national flags or playing their national anthems.

This year's Wimbledon will run from 27 June to 10 July.

Multiple outlets previously reported that British government officials were in talks with the Lawn Tennis Association and considering implementing a ban on Russian athletes at the grass court tournament.

Last month, sports minister, Nigel Huddleston, suggested that Medvedev and his fellow Russian players shouldn't be allowed to compete at Wimbledon unless they somehow assured the government that they were not a supporter of President Putin.

In February, Rublev made headlines after writing "no war, please" on a TV camera after defeating Poland's Hubert Hurkacz at the Dubai Tennis Championships.

Similarly, Medvedev echoed the message and said he was "all for peace" after his quarter-final victory over Japan's Yoshihito Nishioka in the Mexican Open.

What other sports events have Russia been banned from?

Russian athletes and teams have been subject to a variety of suspensions and sanctions from a number of sporting bodies, over the invasion of Ukraine.

Russian Paralympians were removed from the Winter Paralympics shortly after the invasion began, while Russian and Belarusian runners were not allowed to enter the Boston Marathon.

The country's football team was removed from qualifying for the men's World Cup later this year and in February the IOC recommended barring Russian athletes from international competition, which led to Russian teams and individuals being removed from competing in dozens of major sporting events.

Some Russian athletes have faced scrutiny for branding the 'Z' symbol associated with the country's invasion of Ukraine.

Last month, Russian gymnast Ivan Kuliak, was criticised for wearing the symbol which means "for victory", on the podium next to a Ukrainian competitor.

He later told Russian state media he had no regrets.

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Ukraine war: Wimbledon 'will ban Russian and Belarusian tennis players' over Putin's invasion - Sky News

Curtin University political analyst Joe Siracusa says President Vladimir Putin is likely not in control as much as people think.

Professor Siracusa said the sinking of the Moskva the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet that went down last week would have triggered widespread pressure to get even given Russias pride took a hit.

Sinking the flagship was really significant because we can talk about genocide and we can talk about good and evil until the cows come home, but when the flagship of the Russian fleet Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom of the sea, theres no explaining that, he told Sky News Australia.

I mean where is this, how many people died?

This hardens attitudes on both sides, and Ive been arguing that Putin is probably not as much in control as people think he is.

Thered be enormous pressure on the part of the Russian people to get even, to fight back, because their pride has been hurt now.

Professor Siracusa referenced the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution as an example of the reaction an attack on a ship could create.

As soon as President Johnson thought a couple of our ships were attacked in the Gulf of Tonkin, the next thing you know we had rolling thunder and we were at war with North Vietnam, he said.

I think theres no going back from this.

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Vladimir Putin is 'not as much in control as people think he is' - Sky News Australia