Daily Archives: April 29, 2022

Today, we released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks weve observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what weve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. We believe its important to share this information so that policymakers and the public around the world know whats occurring, and so others in the security community can continue to identify and defend against this activity. All of this work is ultimately focused on protecting civilians from attacks that can directly impact their lives and their access to critical services.

Starting just before the invasion, we have seen at least six separate Russia-aligned nation-state actors launch more than 237 operations against Ukraine including destructive attacks that are ongoing and threaten civilian welfare. The destructive attacks have also been accompanied by broad espionage and intelligence activities. The attacks have not only degraded the systems of institutions in Ukraine but have also sought to disrupt peoples access to reliable information and critical life services on which civilians depend, and have attempted to shake confidence in the countrys leadership. We have also observed limited espionage attack activity involving NATO member states, and some disinformation activity.

As todays report details, Russias use of cyberattacks appears to be strongly correlated and sometimes directly timed with its kinetic military operations targeting services and institutions crucial for civilians. For example, a Russian actor launched cyberattacks against a major broadcasting company on March 1st, the same day the Russian military announced its intention to destroy Ukrainian disinformation targets and directed a missile strike against a TV tower in Kyiv. On March 13th, during the third week of the invasion, a separate Russian actor stole data from a nuclear safety organization weeks after Russian military units began capturing nuclear power plants sparking concerns about radiation exposure and catastrophic accidents. While Russian forces besieged the city of Mariupol, Ukrainians began receiving an email from a Russian actor masquerading as a Mariupol resident, falsely accusing Ukraines government of abandoning Ukrainian citizens.

The destructive attacks weve observed numbering close to 40, targeting hundreds of systems have been especially concerning: 32% of destructive attacks directly targeted Ukrainian government organizations at the national, regional and city levels. More than 40% of destructive attacks were aimed at organizations in critical infrastructure sectors that could have negative second-order effects on the Ukrainian government, military, economy and civilians. Actors engaging in these attacks are using a variety of techniques to gain initial access to their targets including phishing, use of unpatched vulnerabilities and compromising upstream IT service providers. These actors often modify their malware with each deployment to evade detection. Notably, our report attributes wiper malware attacks we previously disclosed to a Russian nation-state actor we call Iridium.

Todays report also includes a detailed timeline of the Russian cyber-operations weve observed. Russia-aligned actors began pre-positioning for conflict as early as March 2021, escalating actions against organizations inside or allied with Ukraine to gain a larger foothold into Ukrainian systems. When Russian troops first started to move toward the border with Ukraine, we saw efforts to gain initial access to targets that could provide intelligence on Ukraines military and foreign partnerships. By mid-2021, Russian actors were targeting supply chain vendors in Ukraine and abroad to secure further access not only to systems in Ukraine but also NATO member states. In early 2022, when diplomatic efforts failed to de-escalate mounting tensions around Russias military build-up along Ukraines borders, Russian actors launched destructive wiper malware attacks against Ukrainian organizations with increasing intensity. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Russian cyberattacks have been deployed to support the militarys strategic and tactical objectives. Its likely the attacks weve observed are only a fraction of activity targeting Ukraine.

Microsoft security teams have worked closely with Ukrainian government officials and cybersecurity staff at government organizations and private enterprises to identify and remediate threat activity against Ukrainian networks. In January of this year, when the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center (MSTIC) discovered wiper malware in more than a dozen networks in Ukraine, we alerted the Ukrainian government and published our findings. Following that incident, we established a secure line of communication with key cyber officials in Ukraine to be sure that we could act rapidly with trusted partners to help Ukrainian government agencies, enterprisesand organizations defend against attacks. This has included 24/7 sharing of threat intelligence and deployment of technical countermeasures to defeat the observed malware.

Given Russian threat actors have been mirroring and augmenting military actions, we believe cyberattacks will continue to escalate as the conflict rages. Russian nation-state threat actors may be tasked to expand their destructive actions outside of Ukraine to retaliate against those countries that decide to provide more military assistance to Ukraine and take more punitive measures against the Russian government in response to the continued aggression. Weve observed Russian-aligned actors active in Ukraine show interest in or conduct operations against organizations in the Baltics and Turkey all NATO member states actively providing political, humanitarianor military support to Ukraine. The alerts published by CISA and other U.S. government agencies, and cyber-officials in other countries, should be taken seriously and the recommended defensive and resilience measures should be taken especially by government agencies and critical infrastructure enterprises.Our report includes specific recommendations for organizations that may be targeted by Russian actors as well as technical information for the cybersecurity community. We will continue to provide updates as we observe activity and believe we can safely disclose new developments.

Tags: cyberattacks, cybersecurity, Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center, Russia, Ukraine

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The hybrid war in Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft

Several weeks into Russias invasion of Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn singled out Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky as an enemy of the Hungarian nation. In the current crisis, Orbns criticism of Ukraine and fierce opposition to further sanctions against Russia stand out during a rare moment of apparent E.U. unity in support of Ukraine. The Hungarian governments overt admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, even after Russias annexation of Crimea in 2014, is unique in the European Union. In 2015, Orbn stated I dont want to live in a Europe that conducts a new Cold War against Russia and which makes the Europeans enemies of the Russians. As an illiberal, populist E.U. member state, Hungary has long played on divisions between East and West, its leader courting Putin and campaigning against Brussels. Despite Orbn acting as the vocal poster boy for anti-liberal sentiments, the countrys economy is overwhelmingly dependent on the European Union and Hungary consistently complies with E.U. sanctions on Russia. In fact, the strongest resistance to further sanctions on Russia including a European embargo on Russian energy is not Hungary but Germany and other larger economies that hide behind Hungarys inflammatory rhetoric. These divisions enable Hungary to continue weakening the European Unions liberal agenda while enjoying the perks of membership, and theres no reason to foresee this changing in the near future.

Hungarys Eastern Opening

Upon taking office in 2010, Orbn introduced the Eastern Opening economic policy, intended to attract investment from non-Western markets. Observers emphasized the surprising overture towards Russia, but the main target of the policy was increased Chinese investment. During this period, many European countries were also courting China a growing economy in a time of global recession and China was seeking to expand its trade relations with Europe and its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Indeed after 2010 both the volume of trade between Hungary and China, and Chinese investment in Hungary, increased. A flagship of this new economic relationship is a 20-year 1.5 billion Chinese loan to construct a railway between Budapest and Belgrade. Recently Orbn and Serbian President Aleksandr Vucic took the inaugural journey, waving at non-existent passersby ahead of their respective elections. Though Chinese investment has risen throughout the region, China has invested more in Hungary than any other country in the European Unions Central and Eastern European region.

The most controversial non-Western relationship that Orbn has cultivated is with Putin. Orbn ran on a platform of making utilities more affordable, and so securing cheap energy supplies was a major priority for his administration. When Hungarys long-term gas contract with Gazprom expired in 2015, Putin personally went to Budapest to sign a new sweetheart gas deal that flew in the face of regional, European priorities to decrease energy dependence on Moscow. Orbn and Putin also signed a deal for Russias nuclear-energy giant Rosatom to finance and build a new nuclear power plant at Paks. Orbn also critiqued E.U. sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the annexation of Crimea, arguing that Europe shot itself in the foot by alienating Russia.

Cultivating close relations with China and Russia is key to Orbns mobilization strategy. As an illiberal populist, Orbn mobilizes his base with anti-Western and anti-European Union sentiment. Orbn is speaking to Hungarians who feel let down by the promise of European accession. While overall the quality of life in Hungary improved after it joined the European Union, the gap between Hungary and its Western neighbors on the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments Better Life index and GDP per capita remain significant and, moreover, many rural voters have not enjoyed the same opportunities as the liberal elite in Budapest. For Orbn, China and Russia offer an alternative to the Western liberal democracy that he blames for stymieing Hungarian greatness. In an infamous 2014 speech, Orbn expressed his admiration for the illiberal model of governance:

Today, the stars of international analyses are Singapore, China, India, Turkey, Russia. And I believe that our political community rightly anticipated this challenge. And if we think back on what we did in the last four years, and what we are going to do in the following four years, then it really can be interpreted from this angle. We are searching for (and we are doing our best to find, ways of parting with Western European dogmas, making ourselves independent from them) the form of organizing a community, that is capable of making us competitive in this great world-race.

Despite the attention that Orbn pays to non-Western leaders and their highly visible diplomatic ties, there is no substitution for the European Union in Hungarys economy: Neither Russia nor China is key to Hungarian economic interests. E.U. states are almost the sole investor in the Hungarian economy, with an 89 percent share of Hungarian foreign direct investment. Within the European Union, Germany is by far the biggest investor in Hungary and manufacturing for German firms makes up a significant portion of Hungarian industry. German auto manufacturing in Hungary accounts for 28.8 percent of all Hungarian exports. China is a minor investor in Hungary and Russia barely makes the list. Similarly, Hungary trades predominantly with E.U. members. A quarter of its trade imports and exports are with Germany alone. Russia and China are almost insignificant trade partners.

Hungary Versus Ukraine

Orbn was recently reelected in another landslide election. In his victory speech on April 4, Orbn celebrated his triumph over Hungarys many enemies, claiming:

This victory will be remembered for the rest of our lives because so many people ganged up on us, including the left at home, the international left everywhere, the bureaucrats in Brussels, all the funds and organizations of the Soros empire, the foreign media, and in the end even the Ukrainian president.

Immediately after the election, he communicated privately with Putin on Telegram. Given Russias brazen aggression in Ukraine and the allegations of atrocities and widespread war crimes by Russian soldiers, Orbns actions have been widely criticized, even by his closet illiberal ally, Polands deputy prime minister and leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, Jarosaw Kaczyski. But Orbns words are consistent with his behavior throughout his long tenure in office. The relationship between Hungary and Ukraine has been strained for years. As the champion of Hungarian minority rights outside Hungary, Orbn threatened to block Ukraines further integration with Europe over a 2017 Ukrainian law restricting the use of minority languages in Ukraine, including Hungarian. Some observers viewed Orbns focus on ethnic Hungarian rights as a pretext, suspecting that the real motivation was Orbns close relationship with Putin.

Orbn was also suspected of turning U.S. President Donald Trump against Ukraine during a 2019 meeting that Trump took against the wishes of his national security advisor John Bolton and Fiona Hill. During the meeting Orbn offered a negative assessment of Zelensky and called Ukraine semi-fascist. According to several sources, this meeting affirmed Trumps hostility towards Ukrainians, whom he characterized as terrible people who tried to take me down during the 2016 election.

Moreover, Orbn has always goaded the European Union with strong anti-Western rhetoric, but has ultimately complied with European policies. The most notable example is Hungarys consistent compliance with the E.U. sanctions regime against Russia both after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the February invasion.

Gazprom Versus the European Union

Until now, Orbn was never forced to choose sides between the European Union and his non-Western allies. Although Orbn was heavily criticized for acting as an agent of Moscow within the European Union, Hungary was never the key actor shaping E.U. policy toward Russia. The most important voice on Russia policy has always been Germany. Both Hungary and Germany vetoed a 2015 E.U. energy security proposal to make gas contracts more transparent, which would have facilitated E.U. energy unity by increasing the bargaining power of the European Union as a bloc in negotiations with Russias Gazprom. For years, Germany has cultivated a far more extensive trade relationship with Russia than Hungary, and even in the current conflict, Germany is the most significant roadblock to an energy embargo against Russia. Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated the German position that an embargo on Russian oil would trigger a recession in Germany and beyond.

Germany is not alone in its reluctance to implement a further sanctions regime against Russia, the effects of which will be keenly felt at home. Although Germanys belief that economic interdependence would lead to energy security has been much criticized especially by Poland and the Baltic states who had long warned of the dangers of energy dependence on Moscow Austria also rejects sanctions against Russian oil and gas. Vienna is also highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and in fact Austrias OMV was the first Western firm to conclude an agreement to import Soviet natural gas in 1968. Austrias pro-Moscow economic policies have flown under the radar for decades now, with the leadership in Vienna preferring to stay quiet while Brussels rebuked Hungary, and Eastern European states shamed Germany. Frances far right has notorious connections to Putins Russia, Italy deepened its energy dependence on Moscow under Silvio Berlusconi, and even Finland pursued a Russian-built nuclear power project after 2014. The harsh reality is that while Hungary is the only E.U. member to praise Putin and attack Zelensky, a number of prominent E.U. member states also have complicated energy and economic ties with Russia that make taking a hard line on sanctions a difficult political calculus.

Foreign policy toward Russia is not the only issue on which Hungary diverges from the liberal position. Most notably, Hungary vocally opposed E.U. refugee quota policy, eventually stymieing a joint migration policy altogether. Like on most issues of European foreign policy, Hungary was not alone in its resistance it led a coalition of countries that refused to take refugees, like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland. Even more significantly, though Germany was leading the liberal effort to meet the challenge of the 2015 refugee crisis, most other countries in the European Union did not follow. Here too, anti-refugee mobilization is associated with Hungary, but Orbn was simply the loudest voice on the matter. These are not singular examples. Orbn consistently uses illiberal rhetoric to mobilize domestic support and court non-Western states. This rhetoric weakens the liberal agenda, sows divisions in the European Union, and lends support to other radical-right actors in Europe. Hungary gets away with this damaging behavior because it is acting in areas where European interests diverge.

The European Union Versus Hungary

The European Union has other reasons to want to isolate Hungary: For years the Orbn regime has been degrading Hungarian rule of law and democracy. Upon taking office, the Orbn-controlled parliament wrote a new Hungarian constitution without any input from the opposition or civil society. The new constitution re-imagined Hungary as a conservative, Christian nation at the expense of liberal democratic values. To accompany the legal revolution, the Orbn regime embarked on a full-scale attack on the judicial system, and in particular the constitutional court. Reforms included retroactively reducing the retirement age for judges in an effort to change the composition of the court, significantly limiting the right to bring suits to the court, and changing court procedures to limit the power of the institution. This process significantly weakened the court, so that it could no longer serve as a check on government power.

As part of the concentration of political power and the elimination of checks and balances, the Orbn government transformed the Hungarian media landscape. Foreign-owned outlets that did not kowtow to the government were taxed out, and owners of domestic outlets were replaced by Orbns cronies. This has led to effective government control over print and broadcast media in Hungary. One implication of this is the inability of the opposition to frame the political debate. This was evident in the recent election, where the main opposition candidate received little media time. In addition, the media presented only the governments narrative of the war on Ukraine: that Orbn was a cautious leader trying to prevent Hungary from being dragged by Zelensky into a costly war. Orbns longstanding alliance with Putin did not take center stage. The judiciary and media were only two of the many liberal victims of the Orbn regime. Freedom House no longer considers Hungary a democracy.

In response to the degradation of democracy and the rule of law, the European Union used the European court system to prosecute the Hungarian state. These attempts have mostly been ineffective. In some cases, the Hungarian government rescinded particularly egregious policies, but only after the damage was done. In 2018 the European Commission opened an Article 7 procedure against Hungary, which may be triggered when a country breaches the European Unions fundamental values including democracy and the rule of law. Article 7 requires four-fifths of member states to find the state guilty of violations to move to the next step, where a consensus vote is required to deny voting rights and impose sanctions. This is a very high bar, especially since Poland, an illiberal ally of Hungary, is also accused of violating E.U. law and, since 2017, also faces an Article 7 procedure. Recently there have been increased efforts to sanction violations of E.U. law by tying the disbursement of COVID-19 relief funds to upholding rule of law practices. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union managed to withhold the disbursement of these funds to Hungary on these grounds.

The invasion of Ukraine has shifted alignments within the European Union: Poland, previously a poster child for illiberal behavior alongside Hungary, is now a crucial member of the anti-Russian alliance. Hungary, on the other hand, is being ostracized by its closest allies for its ties with Russia, and both Poland and the Czech Republic cancelled their participation in a scheduled meeting of the Visegrad countries (a cultural and political alliance they are part of along with Hungary and Slovakia). While this isolation of Hungary could help to unify the European Union on sanctions, it may not be enough. Poland and Hungary are now on opposite sides of the Russia debate, but they still share very important interests vis--vis the European Union. Sanctioning Hungary will leave Poland vulnerable to sanctions for similar violations, and Poland is thus unlikely to support any E.U. efforts that require a unanimous vote.

Russias war on Ukraine has united the European Union and NATO as they have not been in decades. In this context, Hungary is a bad actor and stands out as the only E.U. member state openly unaligned with the Western cause. Putins actions have rendered Russia so toxic that even Orbn has toned down his pro-Kremlin rhetoric over the past few weeks, expressing his preferences in less inflammatory terms. But there are other divisions within the European Union that hinder unified action in favor of Ukraine. Hungarys influence is limited compared to that of larger states like Germany. Moreover, as long as the European Union remains divided on both key foreign policies and on common values, Hungary can get away with playing both sides.

Hadas Aron, Ph.D., is a faculty fellow at the Center for European and Mediterranean Studies at New York University. Previously, she was a fellow in the political science department at Tel Aviv University, the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, and a visiting fellow at Central European University. Her research focuses on populism, nationalism, and international security, and European politics. Her work has appeared in Party Politics, Nations and Nationalism, Newsweek, Duck of Minerva, and The London School of Economics United States Politics Blog. Her work has been featured inthe New York TimesandVox.

Emily Holland, Ph.D., is an assistant professor in the Russia Maritime Studies Institute at the Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College. Dr. Holland studies the geopolitics of energy, Russian and European foreign policy, U.S.-Russian relations, and populist movements in East-Central Europe and Russia. Her book project Poisoned by Gas elucidates the relationship between foreign policy, domestic politics, and the natural gas trade in Europe and the post-Soviet space. The views expressed here are hers alone and do not express those of the Naval War College, the U.S. Navy, or the Department of Defense.

Image: CC BY 2.0, Flickr user European Peoples Party

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Is Hungary Ukraine's Biggest Problem in the European Union? - War on the Rocks

Around 8,000 British soldiers are due to be sent to eastern Europe to take part in military exercises designed to combat Russian aggression.

The deployment - which is one of the largest to take place since the Cold War - will see troops placed in countries from Finland to North Macedonia.

Dozens of tanks and more than 100 armoured fighting vehicles will also be sent to the locations this summer under plans that have been bolstered since the war in Ukraine began.

Live updates on Ukraine war as Russia bombards Kyiv during UN chief visit

The armed forces will be joined by tens of thousands of troops from NATO and Joint Expeditionary Force allies, which include the likes of Denmark, Iceland and Norway.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the planned exercises will improve the ability of UK and Finnish troops to work alongside each other, "deterring Russian aggression in Scandinavia and the Baltic states".

Key developments:

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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the move will show "solidarity and strength".

"The security of Europe has never been more important. These exercises will see our troops join forces with allies and partners across NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force in a show of solidarity and strength in one of the largest shared deployments since the Cold War," he said.

"Operating across Europe, the British Army will stand alongside partners, combining our capabilities and shared values, promoting peace and security."

Read more: The city that's been attacked since day one where defiant residents hide underground

The UK deployment is expected to build to a peak of around 8,000 personnel operating in mainland Europe between April and June.

Some of the exercises are set to involve parachute drops, helicopter-borne air assaults Challenger 2 tanks.

The drills aim to "showcase the scale and significance of the British Army's contribution to the defence of Europe", the MoD added.

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Troops from B Squadron of the Queen's Royal Hussars have deployed to Finland this week to take part in an exercise, while in May the Royal Welsh Battlegroup and the Royal Tank Regiment will conduct an exercise on the Estonia-Latvia border.

Also in May, 1,000 soldiers from the King's Royal Hussars Battlegroup and C Squadron of the Light Dragoons will be deployed for exercises in Poland, supported by 104 Theatre Sustainment Brigade operating from the UK and bases in Europe.

Another exercise which began this week sees elements of 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team and 1 Aviation Brigade Combat Team deployed in North Macedonia.

Commander Field Army Lieutenant General Ralph Wooddisse explained: "The UK makes a significant contribution to the defence of Europe and the deterrence of Russian aggression. The British Army's series of exercises is fundamental to both.

"The scale of the deployment, coupled with the professionalism, training and agility of the British Army, will deter aggression at a scale not seen in Europe this century."

Exercises alongside American troops are also taking place in Poland.

Western powers are attempting to show their support for Ukraine is not waning

Political correspondent

The Ministry of Defence says this is one of the largest military deployments since the Cold War and they are blunt that this is about showing solidarity and strength - no prizes for guessing who the intended audience is.

These exercises are to deter Russian aggression, to deter Vladimir Putin from entering a new conflict.

We understand that the military exercises the UK is involved in will peak between now and June, with 8,000 British army troops involved.

But if you count all of the troops from all of the NATO and the Joint Expeditionary Force countries together, then we are talking about tens of thousands of armed forces personnel.

Of course this comes as Joe Biden has asked Congress for $33bn (27bn) for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

Western powers here are attempting to show their support is not waning as the conflict enters its third month.

Ukrainian capital comes under attack after meeting between Zelenskyy and UN secretary-general

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv has continued to come under fire, with at least one person killed and several others injured during a strike on Thursday night.

Rescue officials said some civilians were trapped beneath rubble after the Russian attack, which came shortly after a meeting between Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

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Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the Shevchenkivskyi district, in the northwestern part of the city, was hit twice, causing fires in at least two high-rise buildings.

Explosions have also been reported in Chernihiv, which is near the border with Belarus, and Fastiv, in the central part of the country.

Ukrainian authorities also reported intense Russian fire in the Donbas - the eastern industrial heartland that has become a key target for Russia.

Earlier on Thursday, a Ukrainian military official said Russian forces were "exerting intense fire" as they continued the second phase of their invasion.

Former British soldier killed in Ukraine as second Briton reported missing

It comes after a British military veteran was reported to have been killed in Ukraine while fighting Russian forces.

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Tributes have been paid to 36-year-old Scott Sibley, who is the first British national confirmed to have died in the war.

A second British man, who Sky News has chosen not to name, has been reported as missing in Ukraine after travelling there to fight.

At the beginning of the war, Ukraine's government urged volunteers from across the world to come and help support its armed forces as they took on Russia's invasion.

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Ukraine war: Thousands of UK troops to be sent to Europe in bid to combat Russian aggression - Sky News