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Monthly Archives: January 2022
Stargazing in January: Orion strides across the night sky – The Independent
Posted: January 9, 2022 at 5:00 pm
Striding across the sky this month is the giant figure of Orion, a familiar pattern of seven bright stars. According to ancient Greek tales, Orion was the most handsome man on Earth, with the power to walk over water. Armed with a mighty club and a massive sword, his greatest joy was hunting, and he boasted he would kill every creature on Earth.
Listening in to his words was the Earth-goddess Gaia. Appalled by this threaten of mass extinction, Gaia sent a scorpion to end Orions life by stinging his ankle. The gods honoured Orion by placing him among the stars. His nemesis was also elevated to the skies, but at a safe distance so that we see Orion during the winter, and the scorpion (the constellation Scorpius) in the summer time.
Orions Belt is marked by a line of three brilliant stars. Two stars above including blood-red Betelgeuse depict Orions shoulders, while a matching pair of stars below pick out the bottom of his tunic. Look carefully below the Belt, and youll spot a faint star representing Orions sword. Scrutinise it on really dark clear night, and youll see its actually a tiny faint glowing cloud.
Small and dim it may look in our skies, but thats just due its immense distance: in reality, the Orion Nebula is vast seething maelstrom of incandescent gas, 24 light years in diameter. Through a telescope you can make out its swirls of gas, though our eyes are not sensitive enough to see any colours other than greyish green. The discerning eye of the Hubble Space Telescope reveals a cosmic butterfly, gaudy in the red light from hydrogen gas and the green tinge of oxygen atoms.
These gases are usually invisible, but here the atoms are being energised by the radiation from extraordinarily hot stars. Chief among these cosmic firebrands is a star known only by its catalogue number, Theta-1 C1. Its 40 times heavier than the Sun, with a temperature of 40,000C, and shines 210,000 times more brightly than our star,.
Theta-1 C1 and its brightest neighbours are massive young stars, recently born from a dense cloud of gas and dust. The Orion Nebula is the tattered wreckage of their maternity ward, blasted apart by the energetic infant stars within.
These cosmic thugs have some 3,000 siblings, stars born at the same time, but smaller, fainter and less disruptive. The penetrating gaze of the Hubble telescope has revealed that many of the stars are girdled by dense discs of gas and dust, whirling around in the central stars gravity. Each of these proplyds is the size of our solar system, and is a new system of planets in formation around its own sun.
And thats just the beginning of the Orion Nebulas secrets. Behind the young stars, planets and hot glowing gas theres a vast dark cloud of cold, black dust and gas. Its called the Orion Molecular Cloud, and its replete with exotic chemical compounds, molecules that would be the envy of any well-stocked chemistry lab. Pungent ammonia, bad-eggs hydrogen sulphide, and the mothballs stench of naphthalene all mingle together, along with poisonous molecules of cyanide and copious quantities of alcohol.
Under the force of gravity, the dark material in the Orion Molecular Cloud is curdling into hundreds of individual fragments. One day, they too will become new stars, firing up the Orion Nebula to even more splendour.
While in western mythology Orion the hunter represented death and destruction, to the Mayan civilisation the lower part of the constellation, centred on the Orion Nebula, was seen as the Hearth of Creation. Astrophysics shows that they had it right all along.
Whats up
The year opens with a planetary party, low in the southwest as the sky grows dark. Right on the horizon lies brilliant Venus. To its upper left, youll find fainter Mercury, then Saturn and at the end of the line giant Jupiter, second in brightness only to Venus. Its all happening in the twilight glow, around 5pm, and binoculars will give you the best chance of spotting our neighbouring worlds.
All these planets have set by 8pm, and the night sky is dominated by the familiar outline of Orion, the great hunter (see main story). Follow the line of Orions Belt to the lower left and youll find Sirius, the brightest star in the sky. Also known as the Dog Star, its the jewel in the crown of Canis Major (the Great Dog). Above lies its slightly fainter litter-mate, Procyon, in the constellation of the Little Dog (Canis Minor).
The night sky at around 10 pm this month
(Nigel Henbest)
Higher still are the twin stars of Gemini, Castor and Pollux. And almost overhead, youll find Capella: the stars name means the little nanny goat, though oddly enough its in the constellation of the Charioteer (Auriga). Sweeping down to the lower right, reddish Aldebaran marks the eye of Taurus, the Bull, with the lovely little star cluster of the Pleiades (the Seven Sisters) lying nearby.
By the end of January, the starry display remains much the same, but the planets have seriously shifted around. Only Jupiter is visible in the evening sky. Mercury and Saturn have disappeared into the Suns glare. And Venus has swung between the Earth and the Sun, and is now visible in the morning sky, accompanying Mars. The Red Planet lies to the right of the Morning Star, and is 250 times fainter.
Diary
6 January: Moon near Jupiter
7 January: Mercury at greatest elongation east
9 January, 6.11pm: First Quarter Moon
12 January: Moon near the Pleiades
13 January: Moon near Aldebaran
17 January, 11.48pm: Full Moon near Castor and Pollux
19 January: Moon near Regulus
20 January: Moon near Regulus
23 January: Moon near Spica
24 January: Moon near Spica
25 January, 1.41pm: Last Quarter Moon
Philips 2022 Stargazing (Philips 6.99) by Nigel Henbest reveals everything thats going on in the sky this year
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These 2021 Biotech Breakthroughs Will Shape the Future of Health and Medicine – Singularity Hub
Posted: at 4:59 pm
Its that time of year again! With 2021 behind us, were going down memory lane to highlight biotech innovations that shaped the yearwith impact that will likely reverberate for many years to come. Covid-19 dominated the news, but science didnt stand still.
Take gene editing. CRISPR spun off variations with breathtaking speed, expanding into a hefty toolbox packed with powerhouse gene editors far more efficient, reliable, and safer than their predecessors. CRISPRoff, for example, hijacks epigenetic processes to reversibly turn genes on and offall without actually snipping or damaging the gene itself. Prime editing, the nip-tuck of DNA editing that only snipsrather than fully cuttingDNA received an upgrade to precisely edit up to 10,000 DNA letters in a variety of cells. Twin prime editing can rework entire genes. These powered-up CRISPR tools now make it possible to tackle previously untouchable genetic disorders.
Yet were still only scratching the surface of gene editing. Peeking into the CRISPR family tree, scientists found a vast universe of alternative CRISPR-like systems to further explore. AI is now helping identify new CRISPR proteinsand their kill switch. Other ideas jumped ship from CRISPR altogether, tapping into another powerful bacterial system to edit millions of DNA sequences without breaking a single DNA strand. Without doubt, the gene editing toolbox will keep expanding.
In other news, quantum mechanics hooked up with neuroscience to speed up AI. AI is now designing its own hardware chips at Google in an efficient full circle. Hopping into our own brains, in a stunning proof-of-concept, AI-powered brain implants were able to fight depression, with ongoing work to treat chronic pain and translate the brains electrical signals from thought to text. In the medical world, a fierce debate on an Alzheimers treatment sparked a new round of alluring ideas to tackle and tame our long-time mind-eating foe.
Theres a ton more. But here are the top three advances thatll keep reshaping biotech far past 2021, with some runners-up.
I know, I know. Were all tired of hearing about Covid-19 and vaccines. Yet their remarkable ability to fight a completely novel infectious virus is nothing short of miraculous. It also showcased the power of the decades-old technology that previously languished in labs, with a platform thats far faster, simpler, and more adaptable than any previous vaccine technology. Because they no longer rely on physical target proteins from a virusrather, just the genetic code for those proteinsdesigning a vaccine just requires a laptop and some ingenuity. The era of the digital vaccine is here, wrote a team from GlaxoSmithKline.
To enthusiasts, mRNA vaccines could transform current treatments for a wealth of diseases, and the field is exploding. Moderna, for example, launched an HIV vaccine humantrial in August to begin assessing its safety, tackling a virus thats escaped classic vaccine tactics for four decades. Along with the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the company also published data on an HIV vaccine candidate that lowered the chance of infection by nearly 80 percent in monkeys, with all subjects developing antibodies against 12 tested strains of HIV. Its no small featthe HIV target, Env, is a formidable target due to its complexity and is coated with a sugar armor to mask vaccine target points. The mRNA vaccine offers new hope.
Viruses aside, mRNA vaccines also represent a new solution to autoimmune or neurodegenerative diseases. BioNTech, the partner of Pfizer for developing Covid-19 vaccines, is applying the technology to tackle multiple sclerosis (MS). In MS, the immune system gradually strips away the insulation on nerve fibers, causing gradual and irreversible damage. Initial results in mice are positive, with the approach highly flexible, fast, and cost efficient, while potentially being personalized to each patient.
Further down the pipeline are mRNA vaccines that tackle cancer or those that deal with antibiotic resistance. Whether the tech can solve some of our toughest diseases remains to be seen, but the field is on a roll.
CRISPRs long been touted as a tool that can radically transform gene therapy. Earlier studies used the gene editing tool to bolster immune T-cells, transforming them into super soldiers that enhance their fight against blood cancers (CAR-T therapy). The tool also scored successes in battling anemia and other symptoms in patients with blood disorders. The down side was that cells needed to be gene-edited outside the body and infused back into the bloodstream. This year elevated CRISPR to the ultimate goal: directly editing genes inside the body, opening the door to curing hundreds of disorders resulting from faulty genetic code.
In a breakthrough, one trial from University College London edited a mutated gene in the liver that eventually leads to heart and nerve damage. Unlike previous attempts, here the CRISPR machinery was delivered into the bloodstream with a single infusion to switch the gene off, sharply decreasing the production of the mutant protein in six patients. Another trial snipped a dysfunctional gene that causes blindness. By directly injecting the treatment into the retina, volunteers were able to better sense light.
Both are edge cases. For the liver trial, CRISPR was delivered using lipid nanoparticleslittle fatty space shipsthat have an affinity for the liver, with more transient gene-editing effects. And unlike the retina, most of our bodys tissues arent immediately accessible to a simple injection. But as proofs of concept, the trials finally bring CRISPR into a vast world of gene-editing possibilities inside the body. Along with advances in delivery, CRISPRand its many upgradesis set to treat the untreatable.
The first few hours and days of a human embryos development are a black boxone we need to crack. Understanding early pregnancy is key to limiting birth defects and pregnancy loss, and improving assistive reproduction technologies.
The problem? Early embryos are hard to come by, and carry significant ethical and legal challenges. This year, several studies circumvented these problems, instead transforming skin cells into blastocysts, a cellular structure that resembles the very first stage of a human embryo.
Torpedoing the usual sperm meets egg narrative, the studies engineered the first complete model of the human embryo using embryonic stem cells and skin cellsno reproductive cells needed. Bathed in a nutritious liquid, the cells developed into blastocysts, containing cell types that eventually lead to all lineages to build our bodies. The artificial embryos are genetically similar to natural ones, stirring up debate on how long they should be allowed to develop. The nightmare scenario? Imagine a mini-brain growing inside an embryo made out of skin cells!
For now thats technically impossible, but the ethical quandary has stirred up concern at the International Society for Stem Cell Research (ISSCR), which governs research related to human stem cells and embryos. Yet surprisingly, this year, they relaxed the 14-day rule for culturing embryos, giving permission to push embryo research past two weeks. With relaxed guidelines, upcoming studies could reveal what happens to a human embryo after implanting into the uterus, and gastrulationwhen genetic cues lay out the bodys overall patterning and set the stage for organ development.
Its a decision mired in controversy, but provides an unprecedented opportunity to revise IVF and, for the first time, examine the first stages of human development. Its also bound to raise ethical quandaries: what if the embryosnatural or artificialbegin developing neurons that fire, or heart cells that pulse? As artificial blastocysts increasingly embody their biological counterparts, one thing is clear: with great power comes great responsibility.
AI predicting proteins: DeepMind and the University of Washington both engineered AI that can solve the structure of a protein based purely on its genetic code. Its a once in a generational advance, a breakthrough of the year, and a tool thatll change structural biology forever. Updates to the original AI can now also predict protein complexesthat is, how one protein unit interacts with anotherand even their function. AI is also beginning to solve RNA structure, the messenger that bridges DNA to proteins. From synthetic biology to drug development, the impact is yet to come.
AI-designed drugs: Its been a long time in the making, but the hype is now real. This year, Alphabet, Googles parent company, launched a new venture called Isomorphic Labs to tackle a new world of drug development using AI. Powerful algorithms are making it increasingly easy to screen drug candidates from millions of chemicals. And the first AI-discovered drug is now going into clinical trials in a safety test for a lung disease that irreversibly degrades the organs function. Its a significant milestone, and the trial may pave the road for the first AI-discovered, human-tested drug that treats diseases.
In another year of living with Covid-19, its clear that the pandemic cant hold science down. I cant wait to share the good, the weird, and (holds breath) more breakthroughs of a generation biotech stories in 2022.
Image Credit: Schferle / 94 images / Pixabay
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H2 Clipper Will Resurrect Hydrogen Airships to Haul Green Fuel Across the Planet – Singularity Hub
Posted: at 4:58 pm
Airships might seem like a technology from a bygone era, but a startup says their new design could become a crucial cog in the green hydrogen supply chain.
While transitioning away from fossil fuels will prove crucial in our efforts to combat climate change, its easier said than done for some industries. While road and rail transport are rapidly electrifying, in aviation, batteries are a long way from being able to provide the weight-to-power ratio required for aviation. And even the largest batteries are still not big enough to power a container ship on long-distance crossings.
Hydrogen is increasingly being seen as a promising alternative for these hard to decarbonize sectors. It has a higher energy density than natural gas and can either be burned in internal combustion engines or combined with oxygen in a fuel cell to create electricity.
While much of todays hydrogen is derived from natural gas and therefore not much better than fossil fuels, in theory you can also make it by using renewable electricity to power electrolyzers that split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Producing green hydrogen economically is still a huge challenge, but there are hopes that it could help wean hard to electrify sectors off polluting fossil fuels.
But transporting hydrogen remains a sticking point: Areas that are abundant in renewable energy such as sun and wind are not always close to where the hydrogen is needed. Shipping large amounts of the gas around the world will clearly be a major logistical challenge, but a start-up called H2 Clipper has an ingenious workaround.
The California company plans to build airships that simultaneously transport hydrogen and use it as a lighter-than-air gas to provide the aircraft with lift. On top of that, its airships will also use hydrogen fuel cells to power their engines.
While the project is still at the concept stage, the company says that thanks to modern aeronautical design, stronger and lighter-weight materials, and modern fabrication techniques, their airship will be faster, safer, and more efficient than its predecessors. And the company was recently selected for inclusion in an accelerator run by software major Dassault Systems.
While it wont be as fast as a plane, the H2 Clipper will be able to cruise at about 175 mph, which would allow it to ferry cargo 7 to 10 times faster than a boat. It also has a cargo volume of 265,000 cubic feet8 to 10 times more than most airfreightersand can carry up to 340,000 pounds of payload 6,000 miles at its standard cruising speed.
Between distances of 1,000 to 6,000 miles, the airship could carry a ton of cargo for as little as $0.177 to $0.247 per milea quarter of the cost of airfreight. And because it can take off and land vertically, it can carry goods straight to where theyre needed rather than having to transfer them onto trucks at an airport.
One potential stumbling block, noted by New Atlas, is the fact that US law currently bans the use of hydrogen as a lift gas in airships. Thats perhaps not surprising, seeing as the era of the airship came to an abrupt end nearly a century ago after the hydrogen-filled Hindenburg went up in flames.
H2 Clipper deals with this issue in their FAQs, pointing out that hydrogen storage technology has undergone rigorous testing in the automotive industry thanks to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with no recorded explosion to date. The company says this is because hydrogens very fast expansion rate means that it typically disperses too quickly for an explosion to happen. Whether regulators will be convinced remains to be seen though.
The company isnt the only one that thinks airships are due for a reboot. Earlier this year British company Hybrid Air Vehicles unveiled concept images of its forthcoming Airlander 10 aircraft, which it believes could provide a greener and more comfortable alternative to short-haul flights.
There are still many hurdles for both companies to overcome before their visions become a reality, but dont be too surprised if you see Zeppelins passing overhead in the not-too-distant future.
Image Credit: H2 Clipper
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Canadian Climbers’ Best New Boulders and Hard Ascents – Gripped – gripped.com
Posted: at 4:58 pm
This year, North American bouldering developed at the hands of Canadians. Several of Canadas strongest pushed their way into the upper echelons of difficulty providing new test-pieces for the next generations of climbers. Although 2021 was both a long and a short year on account of lockdown restrictions, Canadian boulderers found a way to push themselves in the sport.
Perhaps the most striking line at the Niagara Glen, Ethan Salvos Vilified comes complete with a bad landing and sweeping overhang. Due to the nature of the hill it sits on, this direct exit to Personal Vendetta appears first as a face. Upon closer inspection, the climb finds itself moving up and out a 50-degree overhang on convex or flat edges. The slick Dolomite makes this climb a high-powered expression of finger strength. Still, the crux comes down to balance, a technical heel, and mental fortitude. The fall is bad if you miss the pads.
Most recently known for his performance at Canadian Bouldering Nationals, the silver medalist established this beautiful problem just days before flying out to the competition. The three-dimensional squeeze block is probably the prettiest Canadian first ascent of this last year and showcases the talents of one of Canadas fastest developing boulderers. Faulkner has spent a lot of time outdoors this year, and this climb is the culmination of those efforts. It is simply one example of the potential remaining in Utahs Little Cottonwood Canyon. Footage of the ascent will be available in SOHI Studios Confluence.
Aside from being Canadas first female Olympian, Alannah Yip managed to take down numerous outdoor climbs this year completing what became a successful season. Room Service is one of Canadas most recognizable boulder problems, and in April, Yip became the first woman to climb the powerful line. The hard compression style fit the competition climbers powerful preferences. The ascent was reticent of Thomasina Pidgeons ascent of The Summoning Sit, another Squamish classic that had previously only seen male ascents.
Brennan Doyle kicked off 2021 with an early ascent of Uncut Gems Sit, a new V13 he called the best hard line close to Victoria. The new Duncan test-piece represents only one of the 11 double-digit first ascents Doyle put up in this last year. He has likely become the most active if not one of the most active developers of hard climbing on Vancouver Island and is worth following to find some of Canadas most secret and beautiful new climbs.
After such a strong season it is difficult to pin a single ascent down as Vests most influential, but her recent repeat of Masterpiece might make for one of the most exciting within the context of Canadian climbing. Mellows publication not only makes Vest one of a select number of women featured on the channel, but it also makes her the second Canadian to achieve a level of international recognition for an ascent on that platform. Vest climbed many other hard problems this year, found here, for a season that could inspire many to push toward their goals.
Possibly the best climb of this difficulty in the entire country, Cores Merlin is difficult to find but a classic, nonetheless. The sticky granite of Squamish stone is difficult to appreciate from a photo alone, but between the incredible dyke features, as well as the three-dimensional aspects of this climb, few things comes close to the fluidity of the boulder problem.
This notorious Tim Doyle boulder problem has eluded shorter climbers since its inception, but this year, Maria Cheng tackled and completed the historic Niagara Glen boulder problem with an original beta. Cheng had a strong season becoming the first woman to climb both the Gunt and Seppuku, while still managing to tick other difficult climbs. What is notable about Cheng is that she is not a pro climber. Instead, she is a weekend warrior who loves bouldering and works toward progression year-round. Her story is exciting because it shows that it does not take a pro to do something that no one else has done before.
Oscar Baudrand tore through this last year. Not only did he climb well on Lead during the World Cup Series, but he climbed his first V13, his first V14, and his second V14 all within a matter of months. To finish the year, Baudrand continued by putting up two first ascents on previously established climbs. Meadowlark Lemon is one of the most beautiful boulder problems in the West but has seen a lot of damage in recent years. Baudrand re-established the stand after its most recent break giving it a grade of V13. This difficulty was confirmed by Adam Shahar moments later. Baudrand also established the first ascent of a direct finish to Keenan Takahashis Ghost Face V12. The full line adds a few spicy moves that bumps the grade to V13. Baudrand dubbed the climb Ghost Face Killaz.
Elan Jonas Mcrae is an unknown name to those newer to Canadian climbing. The long-time Canadian boulderer has developed numerous hard projects across the country. Although he will post the occasional first ascent, it is rare to find Mcrae on social media. Still, he is one of the strongest Canadian boulderers who has spent time working some of the hardest climbs in North America. In this last year, Mcrae put up two hard climbs in BC. The first, Lord of the Flies, is a nasty little compression in Canadas fastest developing area: Kelowna BC. The second is another brutal climb called Therapy sit. With a proposed difficulty of V13, this climb appears on Constitution Hill on Vancouver Island.
It is difficult to express how much development Gravelle propagated over the last 12 months. He established the first V15 since Squamishs Singularity, and that is only one of the many things he did for Canadian bouldering. He is responsible for Ontario and Quebecs hardest climbs, both put up last this past year. Ontarios Carnage is one of the most extreme looking low-balls and Ontarios hardest problem at V14. So What V15 might be the hardest Canadian first ascent of his last year. Still, Gravelles Turn and Burn or perhaps Widowmaker Stand are arguably more beautiful. For more on Gravelle and his bouldering click here.
Featured image of Sean Faulkners Dunks on Deck Photo by Jake Quilt, check out his website here.
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How Could the Big Bang Arise From Nothing? – Singularity Hub
Posted: at 4:58 pm
READER QUESTION: My understanding is that nothing comes from nothing. For something to exist, there must be material or a component available, and for them to be available, there must be something else available. Now my question: Where did the material come from that created the Big Bang, and what happened in the first instance to create that material? Peter, 80, Australia.
The last star will slowly cool and fade away. With its passing, the universe will become once more a void, without light or life or meaning. So warned the physicist Brian Cox in the recent BBC series Universe. The fading of that last star will only be the beginning of an infinitely long, dark epoch. All matter will eventually be consumed by monstrous black holes, which in their turn will evaporate away into the dimmest glimmers of light. Space will expand ever outwards until even that dim light becomes too spread out to interact. Activity will cease.
Or will it? Strangely enough, some cosmologists believe a previous, cold dark empty universe like the one which lies in our far future could have been the source of our very own Big Bang.
But before we get to that, lets take a look at how materialphysical matterfirst came about. If we are aiming to explain the origins of stable matter made of atoms or molecules, there was certainly none of that around at the Big Bangnor for hundreds of thousands of years afterwards. We do in fact have a pretty detailed understanding of how the first atoms formed out of simpler particles once conditions cooled down enough for complex matter to be stable, and how these atoms were later fused into heavier elements inside stars. But that understanding doesnt address the question of whether something came from nothing.
So lets think further back. The first long-lived matter particles of any kind were protons and neutrons, which together make up the atomic nucleus. These came into existence around one ten-thousandth of a second after the Big Bang. Before that point, there was really no material in any familiar sense of the word. But physics lets us keep on tracing the timeline backwardsto physical processes which predate any stable matter.
This takes us to the so-called grand unified epoch. By now, we are well into the realm of speculative physics, as we cant produce enough energy in our experiments to probe the sort of processes that were going on at the time. But a plausible hypothesis is that the physical world was made up of a soup of short-lived elementary particles, including quarks, the building blocks of protons and neutrons. There was both matter and antimatter in roughly equal quantities: each type of matter particle, such as the quark, has an antimatter mirror image companion, which is near identical to itself, differing only in one aspect. However, matter and antimatter annihilate in a flash of energy when they meet, meaning these particles were constantly created and destroyed.
But how did these particles come to exist in the first place? Quantum field theory tells us that even a vacuum, supposedly corresponding to empty spacetime, is full of physical activity in the form of energy fluctuations. These fluctuations can give rise to particles popping out, only to be disappear shortly after. This may sound like a mathematical quirk rather than real physics, but such particles have been spotted in countless experiments.
The spacetime vacuum state is seething with particles constantly being created and destroyed, apparently out of nothing. But perhaps all this really tells us is that the quantum vacuum is (despite its name) a something rather than a nothing. The philosopher David Albert has memorably criticized accounts of the Big Bang which promise to get something from nothing in this way.
Suppose we ask: where did spacetime itself arise from? Then we can go on turning the clock yet further back, into the truly ancient Planck epocha period so early in the universes history that our best theories of physics break down. This era occurred only one ten-millionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a second after the Big Bang. At this point, space and time themselves became subject to quantum fluctuations. Physicists ordinarily work separately with quantum mechanics, which rules the microworld of particles, and with general relativity, which applies on large, cosmic scales. But to truly understand the Planck epoch, we need a complete theory of quantum gravity, merging the two.
We still dont have a perfect theory of quantum gravity, but there are attempts, like string theory and loop quantum gravity. In these attempts, ordinary space and time are typically seen as emergent, like the waves on the surface of a deep ocean. What we experience as space and time are the product of quantum processes operating at a deeper, microscopic level processes that dont make much sense to us as creatures rooted in the macroscopic world.
In the Planck epoch, our ordinary understanding of space and time breaks down, so we cant any longer rely on our ordinary understanding of cause and effect either. Despite this, all candidate theories of quantum gravity describe something physical that was going on in the Planck epochsome quantum precursor of ordinary space and time. But where did that come from?
Even if causality no longer applies in any ordinary fashion, it might still be possible to explain one component of the Planck-epoch universe in terms of another. Unfortunately, by now even our best physics fails completely to provide answers. Until we make further progress towards a theory of everything, we wont be able to give any definitive answer. The most we can say with confidence at this stage is that physics has so far found no confirmed instances of something arising from nothing.
To truly answer the question of how something could arise from nothing, we would need to explain the quantum state of the entire universe at the beginning of the Planck epoch. All attempts to do this remain highly speculative. Some of them appeal to supernatural forces like a designer. But other candidate explanations remain within the realm of physicssuch as a multiverse, which contains an infinite number of parallel universes, or cyclical models of the universe, being born and reborn again.
The 2020 Nobel Prize-winning physicist Roger Penrose has proposed one intriguing but controversial model for a cyclical universe dubbed conformal cyclic cosmology. Penrose was inspired by an interesting mathematical connection between a very hot, dense, small state of the universeas it was at the Big Bangand an extremely cold, empty, expanded state of the universeas it will be in the far future. His radical theory to explain this correspondence is that those states become mathematically identical when taken to their limits. Paradoxical though it might seem, a total absence of matter might have managed to give rise to all the matter we see around us in our universe.
In this view, the Big Bang arises from an almost nothing. Thats whats left over when all the matter in a universe has been consumed into black holes, which have in turn boiled away into photonslost in a void. The whole universe thus arises from something that, viewed from another physical perspective, is as close as one can get to nothing at all. But that nothing is still a kind of something. It is still a physical universe, however empty.
How can the very same state be a cold, empty universe from one perspective and a hot dense universe from another? The answer lies in a complex mathematical procedure called conformal rescaling, a geometrical transformation which in effect alters the size of an object but leaves its shape unchanged.
Penrose showed how the cold dense state and the hot dense state could be related by such rescaling so that they match with respect to the shapes of their spacetimesalthough not to their sizes. It is, admittedly, difficult to grasp how two objects can be identical in this way when they have different sizesbut Penrose argues size as a concept ceases to make sense in such extreme physical environments.
In conformal cyclic cosmology, the direction of explanation goes from old and cold to young and hot: the hot dense state exists because of the cold empty state. But this because is not the familiar oneof a cause followed in time by its effect. It is not only size that ceases to be relevant in these extreme states: time does too. The cold dense state and the hot dense state are in effect located on different timelines. The cold empty state would continue on forever from the perspective of an observer in its own temporal geometry, but the hot dense state it gives rise to effectively inhabits a new timeline all its own.
It may help to understand the hot dense state as produced from the cold empty state in some non-causal way. Perhaps we should say that the hot dense state emerges from, or is grounded in, or realized by the cold, empty state. These are distinctively metaphysical ideas which have been explored by philosophers of science extensively, especially in the context of quantum gravity where ordinary cause and effect seem to break down. At the limits of our knowledge, physics and philosophy become hard to disentangle.
Conformal cyclic cosmology offers some detailed, albeit speculative, answers to the question of where our Big Bang came from. But even if Penroses vision is vindicated by the future progress of cosmology, we might think that we still wouldnt have answered a deeper philosophical questiona question about where physical reality itself came from. How did the whole system of cycles come about? Then we finally end up with the pure question of why there is something rather than nothingone of the biggest questions of metaphysics.
But our focus here is on explanations which remain within the realm of physics. There are three broad options to the deeper question of how the cycles began. It could have no physical explanation at all. Or there could be endlessly repeating cycles, each a universe in its own right, with the initial quantum state of each universe explained by some feature of the universe before. Or there could be one single cycle, and one single repeating universe, with the beginning of that cycle explained by some feature of its own end. The latter two approaches avoid the need for any uncaused eventsand this gives them a distinctive appeal. Nothing would be left unexplained by physics.
Penrose envisages a sequence of endless new cycles for reasons partly linked to his own preferred interpretation of quantum theory. In quantum mechanics, a physical system exists in a superposition of many different states at the same time, and only picks one randomly, when we measure it. For Penrose, each cycle involves random quantum events turning out a different waymeaning each cycle will differ from those before and after it. This is actually good news for experimental physicists, because it might allow us to glimpse the old universe that gave rise to ours through faint traces, or anomalies, in the leftover radiation from the Big Bang seen by the Planck satellite.
Penrose and his collaborators believe they may have spotted these traces already, attributing patterns in the Planck data to radiation from supermassive black holes in the previous universe. However, their claimed observations have been challenged by other physicists and the jury remains out.
Endless new cycles are key to Penroses own vision. But there is a natural way to convert conformal cyclic cosmology from a multi-cycle to a one-cycle form. Then physical reality consists in a single cycling around through the Big Bang to a maximally empty state in the far futureand then around again to the very same Big Bang, giving rise to the very same universe all over again.
This latter possibility is consistent with another interpretation of quantum mechanics, dubbed the many-worlds interpretation. The many-worlds interpretation tells us that each time we measure a system that is in superposition, this measurement doesnt randomly select a state. Instead, the measurement result we see is just one possibilitythe one that plays out in our own universe. The other measurement results all play out in other universes in a multiverse, effectively cut off from our own. So no matter how small the chance of something occurring, if it has a non-zero chance then it occurs in some quantum parallel world. There are people just like you out there in other worlds who have won the lottery, or have been swept up into the clouds by a freak typhoon, or have spontaneously ignited, or have done all three simultaneously.
Some people believe such parallel universes may also be observable in cosmological data, as imprints caused by another universe colliding with ours.
Many-worlds quantum theory gives a new twist on conformal cyclic cosmology, though not one that Penrose agrees with. Our Big Bang might be the rebirth of one single quantum multiverse, containing infinitely many different universes all occurring together. Everything possible happensthen it happens again and again and again.
For a philosopher of science, Penroses vision is fascinating. It opens up new possibilities for explaining the Big Bang, taking our explanations beyond ordinary cause and effect. It is therefore a great test case for exploring the different ways physics can explain our world. It deserves more attention from philosophers.
For a lover of myth, Penroses vision is beautiful. In Penroses preferred multi-cycle form, it promises endless new worlds born from the ashes of their ancestors. In its one-cycle form, it is a striking modern re-invocation of the ancient idea of the ouroboros, or world-serpent. In Norse mythology, the serpent Jrmungandr is a child of Loki, a clever trickster, and the giant Angrboda. Jrmungandr consumes its own tail, and the circle created sustains the balance of the world. But the ouroboros myth has been documented all over the world including as far back as ancient Egypt.
The ouroboros of the one cyclic universe is majestic indeed. It contains within its belly our own universe, as well as every one of the weird and wonderful alternative possible universes allowed by quantum physicsand at the point where its head meets its tail, it is completely empty yet also coursing with energy at temperatures of a hundred thousand million billion trillion degrees Celsius. Even Loki, the shapeshifter, would be impressed.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Image Credit: NASA
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Black Holes Cannot Lead To Other Places In The Universe, Claims New Study – IFLScience
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Could black holes be tunnels to other locations in space-time? Could they be wormholes connecting different regions of the universe? A new study gives a resounding no to these questions.
Black holes are complicated beasts. They have consistently broken our physics and studying them has opened our eyes to the limitations of our knowledge. One crucial problem is the Information Paradox. Matter cant escape black holes so, simplistically, once something gets in, its information is lost forever.
Thats a big no-no in physics. The Information Paradox was one of the areas that the late Stephen Hawking focused on. His, and others', work led to the understanding that black holes evaporate and that information is somehow preserved. Understanding exactly how that takes place could provide crucial insight in the quest for unifying quantum mechanics with a theory of gravity.
One of the ways that herculean task is being attempted is with string theory. String theory posits that the fundamental components of the universe are vibrating strings. So far theres no evidence that this is the ultimate theory of nature but its ability to find solutions to major open questions in physics has been appealing to many.
When it comes to the Information Paradox, there have been multiple proposals on how to solve that in string theory, including the idea that black holes are wormholes, a hypothetical construct very popular in sci-fi. Wormholes are a proposed connection to two different points in space-time but theres no evidence that they exist.
A different theory instead sees black holes in string theory as "fuzzballs", messy constructions that radiate energy (and thus information). Black holes, in this view, are not mostly empty with their whole mass contained in a singularity at its center. They are complex stringy structures.
What we found from string theory is that all the mass of a black hole is not getting sucked into the center, Professor Samir Mathur from Ohio State University explained in a statement. The black hole tries to squeeze things to a point, but then the particles get stretched into these strings, and the strings start to stretch and expand and it becomes this fuzzball that expands to fill up the entirety of the black hole.
Professor Mathur, who amongst others, put forward the idea of black holes as fuzzballs 18 years ago, put both the fuzzball hypothesis and the wormhole paradigm to the test. Publishing their paper in the Turkish Journal of Physics, Mathur and colleaguespretty much concluded the wormhole approach doesnt work.
"In each of the versions that have been proposed for the wormhole approach, we found that the physics was not consistent," Mathur said. "The wormhole paradigm tries to argue that, in some way, you could still think of the black hole as being effectively empty with all the mass in the center. And the theorems we prove show that such a picture of the hole is not a possibility."
The study is certainly intriguing but there is still a huge debate whether string theory is the correct way to explain reality. So black holes might be even weirder than wormholes and fuzzballs. Or not.
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Saying Goodbye To The Bogdanoff Twins: The Men Behind The Crypto Memes | Bitcoinist.com – bitcoinist.com
Posted: at 4:58 pm
Yesterday it was reported that Igor Bogdanoff, one half of the popular crypto meme duo, has passed away only days after his twin brother, Grichka. Both unfortunately succumbed to complications related to COVID.
The Bogdanoff Twins commonly appeared as part of crypto memes dating back several years, making them familiar faces with the community. To honor the passing of Igor and Grichka, Bitcoinist is looking back at the lives and careers of the two brothers, and reliving some of their greatest meme-moments.
Igor Yourievitch Bogdanoff and Grgoire Grichka Yourievitch Bogdanoff were born in 1949 into the Kolowrat-Krakowsky family. According to Wikipedia, this lineage has also produced prime ministers, high chancellors, royalty, and more.
The twins themselves were raised in their grandmothers Southern France castle, Countess Bertha Kolowrat-Krakowsk, and were direct descendants of nobles.
Igor and Grichkas early careers started in television, particularly around science and science fiction. In addition to hosting a show called Temps X, the twins introduced many popular series to the French public, such as Star Trek and Doctor Who.
Related Reading | On This Day: Bitcoin Celebrates 13 Years Since The Genesis Block
Both brothers carried a PhD Grichka in mathematics, and Igor in theoretical physics. Their peer-reviewed work in the field, particularly a published work entitled topological field theory of the initial singularity of spacetime has been described as nonsensical and lead to much controversy among the scientific community.
The controversy caused media attention and the Bogdanoffs responded with litigation and lawsuits for alleged defamation. The media also made a circus out of the twins appearance, notably their high cheekbones and chins. Igor and Grichka, however, denied ever having any plastic surgery.
The origins of the Bogdanoff meme-hood appears to have began in April 2015, when a Redditor submitted a photo of the twins to the sub-reddit r/WTF. The very next day, another post was made by another Redditor that displayed the twins progressive appearance changes over the years.
Their meme-dom was then cemented come 2017 when a 4chan post proclaimed that the Rothschilds bow to Bogdanoffs, are in contact with aliens, own castles and banks globally, are direct descendants of ancient royal blood line, and more much of which is actually completely true.
Related Reading | Meme Coin Shiba Inu Beats Out Bitcoin To Emerge Most Viewed Cryptos Of 2021
Both brothers [are] said to have 215+ IQ, such intelligence on Earth has only existed deep in Tibetan monasteries & Area 51, one excerpt reads. Their bizarre background, interest in math and science, and more made them especially fitting for the crypto crowd, who have welcomed them with open arms.
The comical impact of the idea the powerful wealth of the Rothschilds would bow to the Bogdanoffs turned the two men into crypto market makers, placing quick phone calls to command their trading desks to dump it, or pump it depending on which brother you got.
The Bogdanoffs might have been a little unusual, and a lot controversial, but we are thankful for their lives and wish any of their close relatives and loved ones well. And regardless of how they were perceived by the scientific community, they will always be remembered fondly by the crypto community that embraced them and helped to make them a memorable namesake for positive reasons.
Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or jointhe TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content iseducational and should not beconsidered investment advice.
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January 6 and the Paradoxes of Americas Democracy Agenda: Why Protecting Liberalism Will Require a Dose of Populism – Foreign Affairs Magazine
Posted: at 4:57 pm
More than any constitution or law, democracy rests on what the late political scientist Robert Dahl called a system of mutual security. Each side in the democratic contest must have confidence that the other side will play by the rules of the democratic game, accept defeat if that is its fate, and return to fight another day. The political fight must be restrained by mutual respect, mutual trust, and mutual restraintrespect for the right of opposing political forces to contest and criticize, trust that the other side will not eliminate it if it comes to power, and restraint in the methods used to contest for and hold power. No democracy can long survive a political atmosphere devoid of these norms. Yet that is the abyss into which American democracy is descending.
One year ago today, the United States suffered its most serious brush with constitutional failure since the Civil War. Many things remain unknown about the tragic and horrifying assault on the U.S. Capitol. There is no doubt, however, about the scale of the violence or about how close the United States came to seeing the peaceful transfer of power sabotaged for the first time in the countrys history. The damage of former President Donald Trumps Big Liethat he did not really lose the 2020 presidential electionhas been poisonous and long lasting. Most Republicans and up to a third of the American public do not believe that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected. And a variety of different polls, using varying wording and methodologies, have all documented a growing willingness of the American people to consider or condone political violence. When the polarization between two political camps reaches the point that each side regards the other as morally intolerable, as an existential threat to the countrys future, democracy is at risk.
The January 6 insurrection was neither the beginning nor the end of this descent. For some two decades, political scientists have been worrying about the growing polarization of American politics, as evidenced in rising congressional gridlock, an unwillingness to compromise, and the maximalist, take-no-prisoners tone of cable news, talk radio, and social media. Well before Trump began to use the power and prestige of the presidency to trample on democratic norms, ratings agencies noted a decline in the quality of U.S. democracy. Analysts at Freedom House have shown the decline unfolding steadily between 2010 and 2020, dropping the countrys freedom score by 11 pointsfrom 94 to 83on a 100-point scale. Due in part to eroding public trust in democratic institutions, the Economist Intelligence Unit downgraded the United States to a flawed democracy in 2017. And in 2020, International IDEA (Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance), a widely respected international think tank focused on democratic development, classified the United States as a backsliding democracy.
Among Washingtons democratic allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, as well as many emerging democracies worldwide, there is mounting concern, even alarm, at the deeply troubled state of democracy in the United States. As Americans tear their own country apart, fragile democracies are retreating before a tide of illiberal populism, dictatorships in China and Russia are surging in power and ambition, and the norms and restraints of the postWorld War II liberal orderincluding the indispensable norm against territorial aggressionare crumbling. Last month, the Biden administration finally held its long-awaited Summit for Democracy to rally international resolve and push back against the illiberal tide. It was an important symbolic step, because despite the collective weight of the European Union and the geopolitical courage and generous assistance of small European democracies such as the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Norway, and Swedenwhich refuse to be cowed by China and Russiathe United States remains the worlds most important democratic bulwark. A global democratic countermovement will find its energy and conviction challenged, however, as long as it depends for leadership on a democracy as troubled as the United States. This is the paradox of global democracy today: the fate of freedom still rests on a deeply flawed and unstable democratic superpower. Inside that paradox rests a series of other paradoxesa set of sobering obstacles to the dream of global democratic renewal.
The first of these paradoxes is that reviving democracy in the United States requires depolarization and hence compromises that can bridge partisan divides and build coalitions from the center out. Compromise suggests a middle ground between two poles and actors on each side willing to seize that ground. But a key feature of the countrys democratic crisis is that one of the two major political parties is undermining the essential conditions for free and fair elections, particularly neutral and nonpartisan procedures for administering and certifying elections. In the year since January 6, numerous U.S. states have seen Republican legislators push and in some cases adopt laws enabling them to assert partisan control over the electoral process and thus possibly to reverse the results of a free and fair election. And even more states have adopted provisions that make voting more difficult for the kinds of people who tend to favor the other party.
There exists a legislative remedy to this threat to democracy: the Freedom to Vote Act, forged through compromise between progressive and moderate Democratic U.S. senators. It would address not only the rising dangers of voter suppression and partisan sabotage of the electoral process but two other scourges of American democracy, gerrymandering and dark money. It would bring American democracy at least somewhat closer to the standards of impartial, independent, professional election administration that make this vital function noncontroversial in wealthy democracies, such as Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Taiwan, and most EU members, and even in numerous less prosperous democracies, including Costa Rica, India, and Mexico.
Yet the Freedom to Vote Act lacks support from even a single Republican in the U.S. Senate. Hence it can be adopted only by removing one of the most arcane and dysfunctional features of American democracy, the Senate filibuster. This raises a second paradox. Although it has been for some two centuries a model and inspiration for emerging democracies, the U.S. system has grown stale in its resistance to reform and has failed to keep pace with global democratic innovations. The United States lacks many of the national institutions of accountability and good governance that are common in peer democracies, such as an independent anticorruption commission, a human rights commission, and an ombudsman to investigate citizen complaints. The country remains stuck with a first past the post electoral system that has been rigged for partisan advantage via redistricting and that is highly vulnerable to polarization, because it tends to entrench just two political parties: voters usually reject third-party options so that they do not waste their votes.
On January 6, the United States suffered its most serious brush with constitutional failure since the Civil War.
During much of the twentieth century, the two parties competed for median voters and kept more radical tendencies at bayalbeit at the horrible price of ignoring pervasive racial discrimination and Black disenfranchisement in the South. But as realignment occurred beginning in the late 1960s, parties became more coherent, primaries increasingly selected more partisan and ideological nominees, and congressional compromises got harder and harder to forge. In truth, however, the problem runs even deeper. In the Senate, the filibuster now blocks political reform, but institutional reform was slow even before the filibuster became (only in recent decades) an automatic requirement for legislation. Hence a third paradox: although the United States holds itself up as a model of democratic experimentation and adaptation, the U.S. Constitution is among the worlds most difficult to amend. Dramatic change often requires decades of advocacy and mobilization of the kinds that produced female suffrage and equal rights for racial minorities.
Of course, reform can happen incrementally, state by state. Alaska and Maine have recently adopted an electoral reform called ranked-choice voting, which offers real promise of reducing polarization. Under that system, it makes sense for independents and third-party candidates to run for office and for dissatisfied voters to vote for them, because no votes are wasted. Instead of voting for just one candidate, voters rank their choices, and if no one wins a majority of first-preference votes, the least popular candidates are eliminated and lower-preference votes are counted in instant runoffs until someone wins a majority. This and other options, including various systems of proportional representation that could replace first past the post in multimember congressional districts, offer the best long-term prospect of reducing the countrys polarization.
And then consider a fourth paradox: although voter suppression and electoral subversion now seriously threaten U.S. democracy, the countrys flawed electoral processes still offer the best hope of arresting democratic decay. Other countries have transcended this paradox to preserve or revive democracy. In India in the mid-1970s, Chile in the late 1980s, Mexico in 2000, and more recently in Peru, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, and Zambia, authoritarian regimes and illiberal forces were defeated through broad and resolute electoral mobilization. Today, opposition blocs in Hungary and Turkey are mobilizing to the same end, facing long odds against regimes that have stacked the decks in their own favor.
A crucial lesson emerges from these diverse circumstances. People do not generally cast their votes for or against democracy; the abuse of power has to get very bad and typically remain bad for a long time before it will become the dominant issue. So political forces seeking to defend or renew democracy must speak to other issues, in particular the economy, and they must craft the broadest possible coalitions in doing so. This requires going against the trend of polarization by showing respect for the concerns of people who previously backed illiberal options. In the 2019 municipal elections in Turkey, the opposition made stunning gains against the ruling authoritarian party by crafting just such an inclusive campaign. Leaders dubbed their strategy radical love. In Hungary, in the recent primary to nominate a candidate to face Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the coming parliamentary elections, the countrys disparate, six-party opposition coalition took a similar approach, choosing the centrist outsider Peter Marki-Zay, the mayor of a small provincial city. Marki-Zay is promising a return to Europe and accountable governmentbut with a populist edge.
And therein lies perhaps the most difficult and important paradox of all: sometimes, it takes a dose of populism to fight populism. Although successful pushbacks against illiberalism must bridge partisan polarization, they often triumph by condemning corruption and crony capitalism and by mounting appeals to economic fairness and inclusionpromises also made by aspiring autocrats, who abandon them once in power and divert attention from their policy failures and limitations through appeals to identity and cultural grievance. Democracys defenders need to avoid the brutal divisiveness, contempt for institutions, intolerance of pluralism, and exaltation of the leader that define illiberal populism. But they should try to energize voters by expressing moral outrage and empathy for peoples insecurity and loss and, when possible, by putting forward charismatic candidates who embody a message of change. Such a strategy lifted the environmental activist Zuzana Caputovato the presidency of Slovakia in 2019, and it now gives opposition parties a fighting chance of winning electoral victories in Hungary, Poland, and Turkey.
Broadening the base of support for democratic reform is crucial, because authoritarians and illiberal democrats always seek to tilt the political playing field to a degree that requires the opposition to win a larger than normal victory. Oppositions that dismiss this dangerand fail to transcend their own divisions and alternative identity claimstypically falter.
As Americans tear their own country apart, fragile democracies are retreating before a tide of illiberal populism.
The January 6 insurrection was the product of a political climate, if not a political plot, intentionally produced by an authoritarian populist leader and movement. Trump may well seek a return to the White House, this time with a leg up in critical battleground states where his Republican allies have made it easier to invalidate the legitimate results of elections. To defeat his brand of populism, Democrats need to avoid militant appeals to identity-based grievances that illiberal populists seize on to paint Democrats as advocates of cancel culture, reverse discrimination, and efforts to defund the police. In addition to fighting against racial exclusion and prosecuting violent white nationalism, Democrats should borrow a page from New York City Mayor Eric Adamss playbook and get tough on crime. The radical right will seek to stoke racial anxiety in any case, but Democrats shouldnt make it easier for that message to resonate with swing voters.
In 2022 and 2024, elections must be squarely focused on the question of which party offers the people a fairer economic deal. Shifting away from identity politics would go against the grain of the moment, which is defined by demographic change and social media passions. It would require a disciplined focus on job creation, childcare support, early childhood education, health-care expansion, infrastructure investment, the new green economy, and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. The three Democratic presidents who managed to serve two full terms in the last centuryFranklin Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obamaall understood the need for a message of hope and optimism focused on bread-and-butter economic issues. Democratic success might also require a presidential candidate who can craft an outsider, anti-elite image more authentic and persuasive than the one Trump has perfectedbut shorn of illiberal tendencies. In the near term, that might be the hardest paradox for American democracy to overcome.
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Bidens uphill battles against COVID, Putin and populism – Sydney Morning Herald
Posted: at 4:57 pm
Meanwhile, rapid antigen and PCR tests are still in short supply despite the White House being warned months ago that it needed to prepare to roll out stock. Federal vaccine mandates for large companies and health facilities are being challenged in court this week, the pandemic-fuelled economy remains fickle, and only 62 per cent of Americans are fully inoculated against COVID - far fewer than the nine out of 10 Australians who are double jabbed.
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Biden also made unity a central plank of his election campaign, portraying himself as a healer-in-chief who could mend the wounds of a deeply fractured nation.
We can join forces, stop the shouting and lower the temperature, he said in his inaugural address on January 20.
But Americas divisions didnt start and end with Trump, and the US today still feels as polarised and partisan as ever, on everything from vaccines and voting rights, to the Capitol building attack and critical race theory in schools.
Whats more, simmering tensions between Democratic progressives and moderates have reached boiling point, compounded last month by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchins decision to oppose Bidens $US2 trillion ($2.78 trillion) suite of reforms to healthcare, climate, immigration, education and tax laws.
Manchin, a Democrat centrist, cited concerns about growing federal debt and higher consumer prices as reasons to not support the Build Back Better bill in its current form. Not surprisingly, party progressives such as New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and fellow members of the so-called Squad were livid.
As for the imminent global challenges?
In his first foreign policy speech as President, Biden declared that diplomacy was back, while singling out the advancing authoritarianism of China and Russia as geopolitical priorities.
But diplomacy is a high stakes game for a leader whose approval rating has been in free fall ever since the middle of last year, coinciding with the hasty withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
The relationship between the US and Russia was tested again last week, when Biden held a 50-minute telephone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine, ahead of talks between their respective officials this week. They each made threats, Biden warning the US would respond decisively if Russia invaded, while Putin, according to his office, said a breakdown in relations would be a colossal mistake.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden held a 50-minute phone call last week.Credit:AP
These are merely some of the challenges paving the way for a nail-biting midterm election year, which many expect will result in Republicans taking back Congress and further thwarting Bidens first-term agenda.
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After all, history suggests the party that wins the White House is not likely to also control the House of Representatives for a full term. Trump, for example, won office in 2016 but Republicans lost the majority in 2018; Obama became president in 2008 but Republicans took back the chamber in a landslide in 2010.
Boiled down, Democrats currently have 221 votes in the House, while Republicans have 213, and Democrat Speaker Nancy Pelosi cannot afford to lose more than three votes in the chamber to push through bills.
The 100-member Senate is evenly split, with Vice-President Kamala Harris holding the deciding vote if theres a tie.
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But in a somewhat ominous sign, 23 House Democrats have already announced they will not be seeking re-election this year. Little wonder Republicans are feeling confident about their prospects.
Biden, however, insists he is optimistic about the year ahead, and Democratic strategists say there are indeed good stories to tell: the $US1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan that sent much-needed stimulus cheques to millions of people during the pandemic; bipartisan support for a $US1 trillion revamp of the nations infrastructure; the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 per cent last month.
Maybe so, but much of the message does not appear to be cutting through. The extent to which Democrats can recalibrate and reframe the debate in the next few months will make all the difference for Bidens political fortunes this year and beyond.
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The Forever Culture War – The Atlantic
Posted: at 4:57 pm
The future of American politics is taking shape, and it is frightening. I, along with many others, thoughtor at least hopedthat Joe Bidens tenure in the White House would allow enough Americans to unspool themselves from the daily efforts of outrage and apocalyptic thinking. Biden was bland enough that politics could revert to something more measured than it had been under his predecessor, Donald Trump. This was wishful thinking.
Politics seems more existential, not less. Pundits and partisans cast everything as a culture war, even those things that have little to do with culture. Policy debates that might have otherwise been boringover COVID-testing protocols or the cost of the Build Back Better bill, for examplehave become part of an apocalyptic battle between the forces of good and evil. As the conservative writer Jack Butler characterized the growing unease: Were in the battle at the end of time, and the prince of darkness is already at the door, and the whole world is now a contest between activist left and activist right.
In retrospect, it was a mistake to think that the sheer intensity of recent political debate was unusual or temporary, when it is likely to be neither. After a couple of relatively tame and boring decades, the shift made itself apparent during the Trump years. In 2012, 45 percent of Americans cited the economy as the most important problem facing the country. By 2017, that number had dropped to around 10 percent. The United States was far from exceptional, however. In 2018, immigration had become the top concern for voters in seven European countries, with terrorism following closely behind. The economy has since become a primary concern again, partly because of the pandemic. Yet economic debates themselves have become less polarized. There is broad agreement and even consensus across the ideological spectrum. In much of Europe, right-wing populist parties have taken a sharp left turn, positioning themselves as the true defenders of the welfare state and the working class.
The American right has lagged behind. Traditions of frontier libertarianism and trickle-down economics make old habits hard to shake. But this, too, is changing, helped along by Republicans growing indifference to deficit spending. Trumps embrace of far-right nationalist tropes has obscured the Republican Partys lurch leftward on economic issuesa shift that the writer Matthew Yglesias calls unhinged moderation. This impulse of right-wing identity politics and economic populism is inspiring a younger generation of conservatives on the new right, profiled recently by Sam Adler-Bell in The New Republic and David Brooks in The Atlantic.
David Brooks: The terrifying future of the American right
Trump was radical in style and, occasionally, on policyat least by conservative standards. He abandoned earlier Republican efforts to privatize Social Security and cut Medicare. His scrambling of traditional left-right politics gave license to young conservatives to embrace economic populism, which isnt very conservative. The influential journal American Affairsinitially launched as a quasi-Trumpist intellectual organwelcomes contributors from the other side and features more socialist ideas than unabashedly capitalist ones (I wrote an essay for the journal on formulating a new left-wing populism).
Various right-wing intellectuals have long fantasized about an electoral holy grail of economic populism and social conservatism. In Britain, they were known as red Tories, but such grand projects of realignment tended to fizzle out. They were compelling in theory but not necessarily in practiceperhaps until now. As the conservative writer and podcaster Saagar Enjeti argued in 2020: The whole reason that the GOP has been able to even compete for so long is that despite their horrible economics, they do hold the cultural positions of so much of the American people. But they keep thinking theyre winning because of their economic policy and losing because of their cultural policy, when really its the opposite.
As Democrats hemorrhage working-class supportnot only among white people but also among communities of color whom the party was counting onthe new right sees an opportunity. Glenn Youngkins victory in the Virginia gubernatorial elections was an early test case. Youngkin, a Republican, was happy to pledge increased spending on education, for example. Few in his party seemed to mind. What mattered was culture, which is precisely what the otherwise mild-mannered former executive zeroed in on in the campaigns final weeks. Education was the dividing line, but these werent your old Bush-era debates about charter schools, class size, teacher training, test scores, and budgets. Republicans may have weaponized the threat of critical race theory, but school closures and remote learning undoubtedly forced parents to pay closer attention to what their kids were actually learningor not learning. The divide wasnt about whether kids were solving their math problems; it was about values, history, and culturethe fear that the state, through its schools, was discarding the pretense of neutrality and instead promoting contested ideological propositions.
Whether this growing sense of cultural overreach by the left ultimately pushes Republicans to Ronald Reaganstyle electoral victories is an interesting question. An even more interesting question is what this shiftif it becomes permanentmeans for the future of American politics. And what it means is discouraging at best.
In effect, because of the GOPs dash to the center on spending as well as on industrial and trade policy, economics has been neutralized as the countrys primary partisan cleavage. To the extent that a left-right divide is still meaningful, it matters much more on race, identity, and the nature of progress than it does on business regulation, markets, and income redistribution. Because the former are fundamentally about divergent conceptions of the good, they are less amenable to compromise, expertise, and technocratic fixes. These are questions about who we are rather than what works.
Elites in both parties enjoy a certain privilegeone appropriate to a rich, advanced democracythat allows them to emphasize culture while deprioritizing economic well-being. Civilizational concerns gain more political resonance precisely as perceptions of civilizational decline intensify on right and left alike. But this particular kind of decadencecharacterized, per The New York Times Ross Douthat, by reproductive sterility, economic stagnation, political sclerosis, and intellectual repetitionis an ideal foil for young conservatives cum reactionaries. It gives them something worthy of reaction. And, importantly, it doesnt require being religious as much as it requires a recognition that religion is a vital societal good, regardless of whether its true.
Like Trump, the most secular president of the modern era, many of the new rights most prominent figures are not particularly religious. Their (potential) constituency of young Republicans isnt particularly religious either. The number of unaffiliated Republicans has tripled since 1990, much of that concentrated among the young and the relatively young.
Civilizational health, to use the term of the Claremont Institutes Matthew Peterson, is what unites believers and nonbelievers alike. They appreciate religions role and utility in buttressing Western civilization, offering as it does transcendence as well as tradition. And, of course, elevating religion as the wellspring of morality is a pretty good way to own the libs, for those who place special value on that.
If this division around morality, the meaning of the American founding, and civilization solidifies, we should all be at least slightly worried. It would mean a multifaceted culture war for, perhaps, the rest of our lives. Thats putting it somewhat dramatically, but there is good reason to view some changes, rather than others, as extremely sticky, if not quite permanent.
Read: Democrats are losing the culture wars
There wasnt always a left-right cleavage organized around class, redistribution, and the means of production. But it came to be, and it has persisted for a very long time. In their seminal 1967 study, Party Systems and Voter Alignments, Seymour Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan argued that state formation, the industrial revolution, and urbanization allowed economic divides to supersede religious ones. That economic cleavages are (or were) paramount in most Western democracies, then, is no accident. Over time, the economic dimension of conflict in Western democracies became frozen in the form of parties that self-defined according to economic interests.
Parties play an important role too. They decide what issues to prioritize in order to distinguish themselves from the competition. As the political scientists Adam Przeworski and John Sprague note, class is salient in any society, if, when, and only to the extent to which it is important to political parties which mobilize workers. But neither Democrats nor Republicans are likely to become workers parties anytime soon. Conservatives rhetorical interest in the working class remains largely electoral and opportunistic. Meanwhile, the left is preoccupied with language policing, elite manners, and a kind of cultural progressivism far more popular among hypereducated white liberals than working-class Latino, Black, Asian, and Arab Americans.
Republicans and Democrats may simply converge around a diffuse and vague economic populism and call it a day. To distinguish themselves from each other in a two-party system, they will have to underscore what makes them different rather than what makes them similar. And what makes them differentunmistakably differentis culture. This isnt just instrumental, though, a way to rally the base and mobilize turnout. If one listens to what politicians and intellectuals in these two warring tribes actually say, it seems clear enough: They believe that civilization is at stake, and who am I to not take them at their word? If the end of America as we know it is indeed looming, then the culture war is the one worth fightingperhaps forever, if thats what it takes.
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