Daily Archives: July 7, 2021

The world is witnessing a new, dangerous nuclear arms race. Tensions are rising between the Great Powers. As the US, Russia, and China rush to modernize their nuclear arsenals, the trip wire is becoming more taut by the day.

Observation and communication satellites and systems are increasingly vulnerable to attacks. All three countries are fielding stealth and hypersonic nuclear delivery systems designed to evade detection. The risks of a false alarm or a political miscalculation has always haunted the nuclear landscape, and they do even more today.

Last week, legislation was introduced in the US House of Representatives to address the misguided nuclear modernization strategy the US is currently employing and chart a safer, more cost-effective course for our modernization efforts one that is predicated on deterrence rather than dominance.

As long as nuclear weapons exist, we must have a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent. However, simultaneous modernization efforts across all three legs of the nuclear triad exceed that scope and are an unnecessarily costly and risky way to achieve our deterrence requirements.

The current US nuclear modernization strategy includes the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), the B-21 bomber, the Columbia-class submarine, the Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) air-launched cruise missile, the sea launched nuclear cruise missile, and new nuclear warheads.

The costs of these projects are extraordinary: a 2017 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimated that the 30-year cost of nuclear weapons spending would be $1.2 trillion ($1.7 trillion adjusted for inflation).

As the Government Accountability Office recently noted, the current plan to modernize every part of the US nuclear arsenal simultaneously is a recipe for schedule delays and cost overruns.

The ICBM leg of the triad deserves special attention. The total price tag to procure the GBSD is projected to be at least $95 billion, and up to $264 billion when accounting for total life-cycle costs. A pause in the GBSD will help defray short-term costs for the Air Force and will also defer a long-term expenditure.

Additionally, the W87-1, the warhead that is being designed for the GBSD, will cost at least $12 billion to build and is not part of the estimated GBSD procurement cost of $95 billion. To build new warhead cores for the W87-1, the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) is expanding plutonium pit production, which will cost at least another $9 billion through the late 2020s according to the Congressional Budget Office.

We do not need a new ICBM to provide a robust deterrent. The existing Minuteman III (MMIII) ICBM which the GBSD is scheduled to replace can serve until 2040 with one more life extension.

Lt. Gen. Richard M. Clark, then-Air Force deputy chief of staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, noted in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee that we have ''one more opportunity'' to conduct life extension on the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, indicating the technical feasibility of extending the Minuteman III missile.

Other independent experts have confirmed the feasibility of a MMIII life extension. In fact, the Air Force intends to do just that. It will upgrade and extend the life of existing MMIII missiles while it is replacing others with the GBSD. The swap out plan is an admission that the life extension is possible and has already been factored into the existing plan.

Maintaining and upgrading the current Minuteman III missile is not only technically possible it is also cost-effective. According to a 2017 CBO report, it would cost $37 billion less to maintain the MMIII than developing and deploying the GBSD through 2036.

It's clear that replacing the Minuteman III for the GBSD is a wasteful and costly undertaking that is not in our national security interest. That's why we are supporting the "Investing in Commonsense Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) Act of 2021," which was introduced in the US House of Representatives last week by Congressman Garamendi.

This bill will simply pause the development of the GBSD, and the associated W87-1 nuclear warhead, and life extend the Minuteman III until 2040 something that is both technically feasible and more cost-efficient. This extension provides time for arms control negotiations and additional debate on the utility of a ground-based system, which may make this program unnecessary.

This legislation will help deescalate the modern nuclear arms race and prevent the unnecessary spending of billions of taxpayer dollars. That's why nine members of Congress joined Garamendi's "ICBM Act" as original cosponsors, and it's why 12 policy experts and arms control associations have joined us in endorsing the legislation.

The "ICBM Act" will strengthen our national security and save billions of tax-payer dollars by:

As a former US secretary of defense, governor of California, and current chair of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness, we have an intimate understanding of this issue and the urgency with which we must address it.

We have visited the launch sites. We have met the young Air Force captains who sit in the buried bunker ready to turn the launch keys for atomic bombs capable of destroying a city three times the size of Hiroshima. It sobers the mind and underscores the need to chart a new course for our modernization strategy before we cross a line from which we cannot return.

Bill Perry is the former US secretary of defense who served under President Bill Clinton. Jerry Brown is the former governor of California and is currently the executive chair of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. John Garamendi is the US Representative for California's 3rd Congressional District and chair of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness.

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Spending $2 trillion on new nuclear weapons is a risk to more than just your wallet - Business Insider

COLLEGE STATION, Texas Moments after a high-rise condominium building in Surfside, Fla., was nearly leveled in a devastating collapse late last month, emergency workers began sifting through concrete and twisted metal for any sign of survivors.

Their urgent mission was not a haphazard scouring of the debris, but a carefully orchestrated plan learned after specialized training in urban search-and-rescue operations. Many of the men and women working around the clock in Florida first spent hours practicing for similar situations in Disaster City, Texas, a one-of-a-kind instructional facility that includes debris from real-world disasters.

There, on a sprawling 52-acre center operated by the Texas A&M Engineering Extension Service near the flagship campus in College Station, rescue workers learn how to listen for the muffled sounds of survivors, safely lift debris and dig passageways to reach them.

A visit to the training facility last week offered a window into the delicate balance that rescue workers face as they search for survivors amid teetering, often unsafe structures and in grim piles of concrete, steel and personal items. The operation at the Champlain Towers South in Surfside has drawn comparisons to the recovery efforts after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon and the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City in 1995.

It takes specialized equipment, specialized training and specialized people it takes those three things to do this kind of response, said Paul Gunnels, the rescue program director at the Texas A&M Engineering Extension Service. When you talk about heavy rescue, it takes a little bit of time to get everything in there.

Elite rescue teams from across America and the globe have traveled to the site to train for delicate rescue missions like the operation in Surfside, where the partial collapse of the condo building nearly two weeks ago was among the deadliest disasters of its kind in the United States. At least 36 people have been recovered from the site, and more than 100 remain missing.

In Disaster City, emergency workers, including rescuers with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, train in structures that were modeled after real-life events, officials said, including the Oklahoma City bombing and the Mexico City earthquake of 1985, which killed thousands.

During a routine exercise last week, Matt Winn, a logistics foreman at the center, surgically inserted a search camera the shape of a long stick in the direction of a voice, which came from a crevice in a summit of rubble. A video screen the size of an iPad revealed what appeared to be a man caught under a mountain of concrete.

The man, a fellow Disaster City expert, soon emerged from a fabricated tunnel. Though the rubble might look dangerous, the scenes at the site were carefully engineered for everyones safety, Mr. Winn said.

Standing nearby, Mr. Gunnels, his supervisor, said that a real-life scenario might have proved a lot more challenging.

Once someone is found, he said, rescue leaders must triage the structure and evaluate the safest route. Every single step, often literally, is carefully considered. Stepping on a shaky piece of concrete can very quickly further destabilize what remains of the structure and endanger both the victims and rescuers, Mr. Gunnels said.

Miami Condo Collapse

July 7, 2021, 1:32 p.m. ET

Training here, he added, is a fluid road map and not a script. Rescue leaders must also closely study weather conditions, such as rain and wind, which can alter rescue efforts, as was the case in the first several days in Surfside, as thunder, lightning and heavy rain threatened the site, and over the weekend as officials prepared for possible landfall of Tropical Storm Elsa.

With the precision of a mountain climber, Mr. Gunnels stepped carefully on a heap of debris the equivalent of a three-story building. He eyed the pieces of concrete, as large as a wall and as small as a baseball glove, and twisted rebar and explained his options.

First, he said, there is a listening device, a technologically advanced system akin to a game of telephone that can capture the sounds of someone breathing, moving slowly under debris or calling out for help. (Sounds are often muffled under large piles of rubble.)

Then there is the airbag, an inflatable cushion that can lift heavy pieces of concrete, not unlike a superpowered fictional character. Rescue workers follow this step by stacking pieces of wood on top of each other, a process known as cribbing, that allows them to create a tunnel to get to victims.

Other times, a 50-pound four-legged rescuer is everyones best bet. On this day last week, Matt Young, an instructor, called on an 8-year-old mixed-breed Labrador named Zapp, who jumped over the pile and followed the scent of human skin that had been placed under the rocks. It took him seconds to locate it, to cheers and calls of Good boy! from Mr. Young.

Disaster City was created in 1998 with a $70 million grant from the Justice Department. These days, a majority of training costs are funded by enrollment tuition, he said.

Over time, it has grown to include scenarios from past tragedies. In one section, a large slab of concrete is collapsed on the side of a parking lot, where mangled cars look as if they were chewed up by monstrous rubble. Trainees must figure out a way to secure it so they can enter the ruins and locate volunteers acting as trapped victims, not unlike what rescue workers did in the aftermath of the Oklahoma City bombing.

At the entrance, visitors are welcomed by a sign that reads Disaster City next to a cluster of battered trains, some of which were donated after enduring their own disasters. With street names like Disaster Drive and Rescue Drive, the site has elements of an urban area or a movie set.

The larger center, known as Emergency Services Training Institute, includes firefighting, incident command and hazardous-materials simulations and trains about 120,000 students a year, both online and in person, many of them emergency responders seeking to expand their skills, such as how to create tunnels under piles of concrete and to control large fires.

Walking around the simulations often takes Mr. Gunnels, a former firefighter, back to some of the nearly 30 disasters he has responded to, including the destruction of the World Trade Center and a devastating bonfire collapse that killed 12 people in College Station more than two decades ago.

Last week, Mr. Gunnels was careful to not address the continuing rescue efforts in Florida. But he said he understood how painful it must be for the families who probably felt as if the operation was taking too long.

His mind traveled back to 1999, when as a lieutenant for a local fire department, he rushed to the scene of the bonfire and made contact with the last person found alive under the heavy pieces of logs. Every disaster is different, he said, but they all require patience from both the people trapped and their anxious relatives waiting on the sideline.

He said, for example, that it took more than eight hours to free the last survivor, John Comstock, in the bonfire collapse. He recalled vividly sticking his head where Mr. Comstock was and offering both hope and a warning. Sir, you are going to have to mentally prepare yourself, he said he told him. You are going to be here a long time.

You learn that there are things out of your control, Mr. Gunnels said. And I have to do it the best I can.

More:

In Disaster City, Texas, Rescues Are a Way of Life - The New York Times

Orbital transfer and servicing providers are bracing for a space tug of war as they jostle for position in an increasingly crowded market.

Newcomers are flooding into a space tug industry that has only emerged in recent years, pushing their own ideas to give operators greater flexibility for deploying and maintaining satellites.

At one end of the spectrum, companies such as Spaceflight, Exolaunch and Momentus are devising tugs that satellites attach to on the ground before they are transported to custom orbits post-launch. These services enable customers to cut costs by reducing a satellites onboard propulsion, or by removing it altogether and hosting the payload on the tug sometimes called an orbital transfer vehicle (OTV).

At the other end, Northrop Grumman and Astroscale are among those offering tugs that dock with already launched satellites to change orbits, enlarge fuel reserves or give them the ability to deorbit safely.

Just a handful of space tug ventures have managed to provide commercial services. On the post-launch servicing side, only U.S. aerospace defense giant Northrop Grumman has provided services to an in-orbit customer to date.

Even still, consolidation is widely expected to already be in the cards for the fast-evolving market.

Italys D-Orbit completed what it said was the worlds first commercial last-mile delivery service Oct. 28, after its In-Orbit Now (ION) vehicle dropped off 12 satellites for Planet over two months.

While regulatory delays have entangled plans by Silicon Valley startup Momentus to offer similar services, Seattle-based Spaceflight deployed 15 spacecraft from the debut flight of its Sherpa-FX space tug in January.

Spaceflight, which brokers rideshare launch services for satellite operators, plans to launch another Sherpa-FX on the SpaceX Transporter-2 mission scheduled at the end of June.

That mission will also include its new, electric propulsion-powered OTV Sherpa-LTE.

Spaceflight expects to fly another next-generation OTV called Sherpa-LTC, which will use chemical propulsion, on a separate SpaceX mission later this year.

Space tugs have the potential to fundamentally change the smallsat market, Spaceflight vice president of engineering Phil Bracken said.

With on-orbit propulsive capabilities, orbits that were once out of reach, due to cost or propulsion capabilities, will be viable options which addresses a growing market need for orbit diversification.

Until recently, most small satellite customers were just trying to prove their technology, choosing bulk deployments on large rockets when most orbits were desirable for this.

However, as the small satellite market matures, they are increasingly looking for specific orbits for optimal, revenue-generating services.

Sometimes their technology calls for extreme final orbit states that rideshare services or even dedicated small launch vehicles cannot reach, added Bracken.

He said early tug missions will focus on inclination changes, or smaller altitude adjustments, but a wider range of services will emerge as more OTVs prove capabilities. These include on-orbit transportation from low Earth orbit (LEO) to medium, geostationary, lunar orbits and beyond.

This growing market opportunity recently prompted Germanys Exolaunch, which also brokers rideshare missions, to announce plans to conduct flight tests for its own space tugs next year.

Like Sherpa, Exolaunchs Reliant tugs will first combine with satellites on the ground before sending them to custom orbits post-launch.

In 2023, the company aims to flight test a Reliant Pro configuration capable of making additional adjustments, including the inclination of a satellites orbit.

In the future, Exolaunch hopes its tugs will be able to dispose of space junk before they deorbit after completing their primary mission.

These plans come as the commercial small satellite market matures and proves to not be just a series of one-off launches, according to Exolaunch chief operating officer Alexander Kabanovsky.

Putting satellites into orbit has become predictable, reliable and more affordable, Kabanovsky said.

As a result, the number of satellites slated to go up into space is growing exponentially and individual orbits have become more desirable. With that immense growth also comes the question of management of space debris, responsible use of space and de-orbiting end-of-life satellites to the fore.

D-Orbit has also outlined plans to tackle debris one day with its OTVs, which currently also offer hosted payload services after finishing their satellite deployments, putting the Italian company and Exolaunch in the middle of a space tug market offering cradle-to-grave services.

The satellite-servicing and debris-removal sectors are less developed than the segment of the market aimed at helping small satellites and other secondary payloads reach their final destinations.

However, landmark in-orbit servicing achievements by Northrop Grumman in GEO, and an upcoming demo mission this year in LEO from Astroscale, are propelling the market forward.

Northrop Grummans Mission Extension Vehicle-2 (MEV-2) successfully attached to Intelsats 10-02 spacecraft April 12 to extend its life, marking the first time a servicer has docked with an in-service commercial satellite in GEO.

A year earlier, its predecessor MEV-1 attached to Intelsats IS-901 satellite, lifting the sidelined spacecraft out of GEO graveyard orbit and back into service.

The success of these two missions is showing the industry that in-orbit servicing is now a reality, according to Joe Anderson, vice president of Northrop Grummans SpaceLogistics subsidiary.

We see the future for in-orbit servicing and the possibilities it brings growing exponentially over the next few years, Anderson said.

MEV-1 and MEV-2 will remain docked for five years before moving to a customer it has yet to book.

In the meantime, the company plans to launch more in-orbit servicing products in 2024 that will work in tandem with each other: a Mission Robotic Vehicle (MRV) and Mission Extension Pods (MEPs).

The MRV aims to carry out more advanced in-orbit servicing tasks such as installing an MEP, a smaller life extension service that is less expensive than an MEV.

These products will introduce additional capabilities to the market including on-orbit repair, augmentation, assembly and detailed inspection while still offering life extension services, Anderson said.

Our vision is that satellites launched after 2025 will include servicing interfaces that will enable them to be serviceable, maintainable and upgradeable.

Tokyo-based Astroscale also expects servicing interfaces will be fitted to future satellites that make it easier for tugs to carry out missions.

The venture was close to performing its first end-to-end test of key technologies for in-orbit debris removal in early June, with an ELSA-d servicer spacecraft launched to LEO in March.

With a paradigm shift underway, moving from the traditional launch-it-and-leave-it approach to space to one where were building in-space logistics and infrastructure, youre seeing innovative companies moving into this market to take advantage of new demand signals, Dave Fischer, Astroscales vice president of business development and advanced systems, said.

The growing momentum behind space tugs is encouraging others to get hitched to the market.

Two former Blue Origin and NASA engineers founded Kent, Washington-based Starfish Space in late 2019 to launch an all-electric tug called Otter as early as 2023.

Co-founder Trevor Bennett said Otter saves costs by being smaller than others under development, which will enable Starfish to operate a network of them in space for on-demand satellite servicing. Our two core missions will be satellite-life-extension-as-a-service and space-debris-removal-as-a-service, Bennett said.

For life extension this is effectively a subscription model, while for debris removal it looks more like requesting an Uber or Lyft ride.

Starfish and Astroscale are developing servicing businesses for multiple orbits.

Astroscale is exploring business models where value for customers can meet sustainability targets for the space environment.

That could mean multiyear contracts for extending the life of a single satellite in GEO, or it could mean management services across an entire fleet of satellites in multiple orbits, Fischer said.

For government customers, we envision both service models, as well as more traditional sales of spacecraft for government operation.

Anderson of SpaceLogistics said its Mission Extension Pods will include the price of being installed by one of its Mission Robotic Vehicles.

These two products are based on the Mission Extension Vehicles currently in orbit, however, unlike them the MRV will have two dexterous robotic arms.

The MEP is much smaller at about the size of a minifridge, compared with the MEV and MRV that are around the size of a small SUV, and its structure is also simpler because it is only capable of performing orbit control.

Other robotics services such as inspections and repairs are provided as a service fee based on [change in velocity] required, time and complexity of the mission, Fischer continued.

Some form of consolidation is widely expected to take place in the increasingly crowded space tug market.

Although SpaceLogistics has not yet booked follow-on customers for the two satellite servicers currently in operation, Anderson said it sees demand for more than 10 life extension missions a year in GEO.

SpaceLogistics expects to service up to five of these each year with the upcoming launch of its Mission Extension Pods and their robotic installers, leaving room for other providers.

However, Anderson pointed to how consolidation is historically a big part of the aerospace industry.

With such a big influx of startup companies in such a new market area, we should not be surprised by consolidation; especially between companies with complementary capabilities, he said.

And while Spaceflights Bracken said pre-life space tugs are a great offering to expand capabilities and final orbit opportunities for customers, which can reduce the need for onboard propulsion equipment, he noted these are only helpful some of the time.

A customer looking to send a relatively uncomplicated satellite to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) at 500 kilometers, for instance, might find the lowest launch cost with a rideshare mission because that orbit is heavily serviced.

More often than not, traditional missions will still suit most customers needs, deploying directly from the launch vehicle to the desired orbit, Bracken said.

Because of this, there isnt likely room in the industry for dedicated space tug providers, thus consolidation can be expected.

For Exolaunchs Kabanovsky, the greatest challenge and simultaneously the largest opportunity is to continue to prove that space is economically sustainable.

The additional challenge will be to find cost-effective solutions to large problems, space debris being only one of them, Kabanovsky said.

Keeping investment capital flowing into the industry despite the failures that the industry will inevitably face, will be another interesting issue to overcome.

This article originally appeared in the June 2021 issue of SpaceNews magazine.

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Space Tugs as a Service: In-orbit service providers are bracing for consolidation - SpaceNews

California is famous for its avocados, and avocados are a famously fickle fruit, ripe one moment and a ball of brown sludge the next.

Apeel Sciences is out to change that. The food science company has spent nearly a decade perfecting an edible coating that can be applied to fruits and vegetables to extend shelf-life by days, weeks or even months.

Slowing down the natural decay process offers benefits to consumers, certainly, but it also reduces food waste, and allows growers and vendors more flexibility in how they transport and sell produce.

Food waste is a massive global problem. By some estimates, a third or more of all food (valued at roughly $2.6 trillion) is thrown out enough food to feed 3 billion people. Cutting food waste entirely could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 8%.

For Jenny Du, Vice President of Operations and co-founder of Central Coast-based Apeel, the company's vision represents a perfect mixture of environmental and humanitarian impact.

Du was born and raised in Canada and initially began her career working to develop film-forming technologies that could be used to protect fiber optic sensors to detect water pollution. For her post-doc work, she was drawn to the University of Southern California-Santa Barbara for its photovoltaic research programs. It was there that she met her friend and eventual co-founder James Rogers.

"James had been working on this idea in the background and had pitched it at a UCSB New Venture Competition," said Du, referring to the school's annual contest where students and faculty work together to launch new businesses. "As he talked about the need and the inspiration for the technology, personally it hit some important notes. For me it was about, 'How do I put my energies towards meaningful work?'"

For produce especially, getting products to consumers before it spoils relies on complex global supply chains. Some foods, like asparagus, are only ripe for a few days, meaning they have to be transported by air instead of on a cargo ship, drastically increasing their carbon footprint.

Apeel's technology works by reinforcing the existing outer layer of fruits and vegetablesthe peel, in other words. Produce spoils as the plant's cells lose water and oxidize. The peel slows this process down, but not indefinitely.

"All plants were underwater at some point, but then they evolved to be surface level, terrestrial plants. In order for that to happen, they needed the formation of a peel," explained Du. "With that in mind you think about what that peel is made of."

Using the natural properties of the peel as a guide, scientists at the company have created edible, plant-based coating that dramatically extend shelf lives for eight different types of fruits and vegetables. And people are taking notice.

"This type of technology could be a 'game-changer' if these perishables have a longer shelf life," said Pedro Reyes, an associate professor of operations and supply chain management at Baylor University. Produce often requires refrigeration to extend its life. If that food could just sit on the shelf, it may ease the demands on energy, logistics and warehousing that could ripple throughout the supply.

Apeel produce is available in thousands of grocery stores in six different countries and the company claims its coating technology has saved more than 69 million pieces of produce from being wasted. Its success has attracted $360 million of investment to date, led by such heavy-hitters as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Viking Global Investors, Andreessen Horowitz and Upfront Ventures. In 2020, the 467-person company was valued at over $1 billion.

The company's strategy moving forward is relatively simple: Get more produce into more stores and expand into new types of fruits and vegetables. In the U.S., it has partnered with Kroger as part of their Zero Waste Zero Hunger initiative, which aims to reduce food waste and eliminate hunger in hundreds of communities across the country. But it enjoyed the greatest success in European markets, which Du attributes to the European Commission's climate-focused policies (a partnership with the Danish produce wholesaler Nature's Pride doesn't hurt either).

Apeel is hoping to move into emerging markets in Africa and Asia, as reflected by their recent partnership with the World Bank-owned International Finance Corporation, which specializes in creating economic growth in the developing world.

It's also looking to expand its reach into other parts of the supply chain. In May this year, Apeel acquired San Francisco-based ImpactVision, a company that specializes in hyperspectral imaginga technique that allows users to see inside produce and can reveal the food's ripeness and details about nutritional content. It's all part of Apeel's drive to more precisely align supply with demand.

"We see a future in providing more digital solutions and being a more embedded partner to players in the supply chain," Du said. "So now that they have the edible coating and shelf-life extension technology, how do you make decisions? What do you do with that additional time?"

Lead art by Ian Hurley.

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Apeel Sciences Wants To End Food Waste by Extending the Shelf Life of Your Produce - dot.LA