Daily Archives: July 13, 2020

The universe’s clock might have bigger ticks than we imagine – Livescience.com

Posted: July 13, 2020 at 5:28 pm

The smallest conceivable length of time might be no larger than a millionth of a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a second. That's according to a new theory describing the implications of the universe having a fundamental clock-like property whose ticks would interact with our best atomic timepieces.

Such an idea could help scientists get closer to doing experiments that would illuminate a theory of everything, an overarching framework that would reconcile the two pillars of 20th-century physics quantum mechanics, which looks at the smallest objects in existence, and Albert Einstein's relativity, which describes the most massive ones.

Related: The 18 biggest unsolved mysteries in physics

Most of us have some sense of time's passage. But what exactly is time?

"We don't know," Martin Bojowald, a physicist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, told Live Science. "We know that things change, and we describe that change in terms of time."

Physics presents two conflicting views of time, he added. One, which stems from quantum mechanics, speaks of time as a parameter that never stops flowing at a steady pace. The other, derived from relativity, tells scientists that time can contract and expand for two observers moving at different speeds, who will disagree about the span between events.

In most cases, this discrepancy isn't terribly important. The separate realms described by quantum mechanics and relativity hardly overlap. But certain objects like black holes, which condense enormous mass into an inconceivably tiny space can't be fully described without a theory of everything known as quantum gravity.

In some versions of quantum gravity, time itself would be quantized, meaning it would be made from discrete units, which would be the fundamental period of time. It would be as if the universe contained an underlying field that sets the minimum tick rate for everything inside of it, sort of like the famous Higgs field that gives rise to the Higgs boson particle which lends other particles mass. But for this universal clock, "instead of providing mass, it provides time," said Bojowald.

By modeling such a universal clock, he and his colleagues were able to show that it would have implications for human-built atomic clocks, which use the pendulum-like oscillation of certain atoms to provide our best measurements of time. According to this model, atomic clocks' ticks would sometimes be out of sync with the universal clock's ticks.

This would limit the precision of an individual atomic clock's time measurements, meaning two different atomic clocks might eventually disagree about how long a span of time has passed. Given that our best atomic clocks agree with one another and can measure ticks as small as 10^(minus19) seconds, or a tenth of a billionth of a billionth of a second, the fundamental unit of time can be no larger than 10^(minus 33)seconds, according to the team's paper, which appeared June 19 in the journal Physical Review Letters.

"What I like the most about the paper is the neatness of the model," Esteban Castro-Ruiz, a quantum physicist at the Universit Libre de Bruxelles in Belgium who was not involved in the work, told Live Science. "They get an actual bound that you can in principle measure, and I find this amazing."

Research of this type tends to be extremely abstract, he added, so it was nice to see a concrete result with observational consequences for quantum gravity, meaning the theory could one day be tested.

While verifying that such a fundamental unit of time exists is beyond our current technological capabilities, it is more accessible than previous proposals, such as the Planck time, the researchers said in their paper. Derived from fundamental constants, the Planck time would set the tiniest measureable ticks at 10^(minus 44) seconds, or a ten-thousandth of a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a second, according to Universe Today.

Whether or not there is some length of time smaller than the Planck time is up for debate, since neither quantum mechanics nor relativity can explain what happens below that scale. "It makes no sense to talk about time beyond these units, at least in our current theories," said Castro-Ruiz.

Because the universe itself began as a massive object in a tiny space that then rapidly expanded, Bojowald said that cosmological observations, such as careful measurements of the cosmic microwave background, a relic from the Big Bang, might help constrain the fundamental period of time to an even smaller level.

Originally published on Live Science.

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Testing Einstein’s theory of relativity | OUPblog – OUPblog

Posted: at 5:28 pm

Albert Einstein is often held up as the epitome of the scientist. Hes the poster child for genius. Yet he was not perfect. He was human and subject to many of the same foibles as the rest of us. His personal life was complicated, featuring divorce and extramarital affairs.

Though most of us would sell our in-laws to achieve a tenth of what he did, his science wasnt perfect either: while he was a founder of what came to be called Quantum Mechanics, he disagreed with other scientists about what it all meant, and he once thought he had proved that gravitational waves could not exist (an anonymous reviewer of his paper found his mistake and set him straight). Yet Einstein did create one thing that, as far as we can tell, is as correct as anything can be in science. That is his theory of gravity, called General Relativity.

He presented the theory to the world over four consecutive Wednesdays in November 1915 in lectures at the Prussian Academy of Sciences. Einstein was by then well respected in European physics circles, and one can imagine more than one person in the audience that November thinking that hed gone bonkers. Einsteins theory purported to replace the hugely successful 1687 gravity theory of Isaac Newton, which posited gravity as an attractive force between masses, with one where gravity was a result of the curving and warping of space and time by massive objects. And the evidence for this new theory? It managed to account for a tiny discrepancy of 120 kilometers per year in the spot where Mercury makes its closest approach to the Sun. The concepts behind this new theory were so radical and unfamiliar that it was said that only three people in the world understood it.

Yet a few people, like David Hilbert in Germany, Willem de Sitter in the Netherlands, and Arthur Eddington in England grasped the startling implications of this theory. Within four years, Eddington would propel Einstein to science superstardom with the announcement that his team of astronomers had detected the bending of starlight by the Suns gravity and had found that it agreed with Einsteins prediction, not Newtons. Newspapers around the world proclaimed, Einstein theory triumphs.

And that was pretty much it for General Relativity for the next 40 years. Because it was perceived as predicting only tiny corrections to Newtonian gravity, and as being virtually incomprehensible, the subject receded into the background of physics and astronomy. Einsteins theory was quickly superseded by other areas, such as nuclear, atomic and solid-state physics, which were viewed as of both fundamental and practical importance.

Yet in the 1960s, a remarkable renaissance began for Einsteins theory, fueled by discoveries such as quasars, spinning neutron stars (pulsars), the background radiation left over from the big bang, and the first black holes. Precise new techniques, exploiting lasers, atomic clocks, ultralow temperatures, and spacecraft, made it possible to put General Relativity to the test of experiment as never before. During the subsequent decades, researchers performed literally hundreds of new experiments and observations to check Einsteins theory. Some of these were improved versions of Einsteins original tests involving Mercury and the motion of light. Others were entirely new tests, probing aspects of gravity that Einstein himself had never conceived of. Many were centered in the solar system using planets and spacecraft, or in sophisticated laboratories on Earth. Others exploited systems called binary pulsars, consisting of two neutron stars revolving around each other. More recently we have witnessed numerous gravitational wave observations by the LIGO-Virgo instruments, the study of stars orbiting the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and the stunning image of the black hole shadow in the galaxy M87.

In this vast and diverse array of measurements, scientists have not found a single deviation from the predictions of general relativity. When you consider that the theory we are using today is the same as the one revealed in November 1915, this string of successes is rather astounding. After more than 100 years, it seems Einstein is still right.

Will this perfect record hold up? We do know, for example, that the expansion of the universe is speeding up, not slowing down, as standard general relativity predicts. Will this require a radical new theory of gravity, or can we make do with a minimal tweak of general relativity? As we make better observations of black holes, neutron stars and gravitational waves, will the theory still pass the test? Time will tell.

Featured Image Credit: by Roman Mager via Unsplash

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Scientists Say This Is the Smallest Unit of Time That Could Exist – lintelligencer

Posted: at 5:28 pm

The smallest conceivable length of time might be no larger than a millionth of a billionth of a billionth of a billionth of a second. Thats according to a new theory describing the implications of the universe having a fundamental clock-like property whose ticks would interact with our best atomic timepieces.

In physics, time is typically thought of as a fourth dimension. But some physicists have speculated that time may be the result of a physical process, like the ticking of a built-in clock.

If the universe does have a fundamental clock, it must tick faster than a billion trillion trillion times per second, according to a theoretical study published June 19 in Physical Review Letters.

In particle physics, tiny fundamental particles can attain properties by interactions with other particles or fields. Particles acquire mass, for example, by interacting with the Higgs field, a sort of molasses that pervades all of space (SN: 7/4/12). Perhaps particles could experience time by interacting with a similar type of field, says physicist Martin Bojowald of Penn State. That field could oscillate, with each cycle serving as a regular tick. Its really just like what we do with our clocks, says Bojowald, a coauthor of the study.

Time is a puzzling concept in physics: Two key physics theories clash on how they define it. In quantum mechanics, which describes tiny atoms and particles, time is just there. Its fixed. Its a background, says physicist Flaminia Giacomini of the Perimeter Institute in Waterloo, Canada. But in the general theory of relativity, which describes gravity, time shifts in bizarre ways. A clock on the surface of the Earth ticks more slowly than one aboard an orbiting satellite, for example.

In attempts to combine these two theories into one theory of quantum gravity, the problem of time is actually quite important, says Giacomini, who was not involved with the research. Studying different mechanisms for time, including fundamental clocks, could help physicists formulate that new theory.

The researchers considered the effect that a fundamental clock would have on the behavior of atomic clocks, the most precise clocks ever made (SN: 10/5/17). If the fundamental clock ticked too slowly, these atomic clocks would be unreliable because they would get out of sync with the fundamental clock. As a result, the atomic clocks would tick at irregular intervals, like a metronome that cant keep a steady beat. But so far, atomic clocks have been highly reliable, allowing Bojowald and colleagues to constrain how fast that fundamental clock must tick, if it exists.

Physicists suspect that theres an ultimate limit to how finely seconds can be divided. Quantum physics prohibits any slice of time smaller than about 10-43 seconds, a period known as the Planck time. If a fundamental clock exists, the Planck time might be a reasonable pace for it to tick.

To test that idea, scientists would need to increase their current limit on the clocks ticking rate that billion trillion trillion times per second number by a factor of about 20 billion. That seems like a huge gap, but to some physicists, its unexpectedly close. This is already surprisingly near to the Planck regime, says Perimeter physicist Bianca Dittrich, who was not involved with the research. Usually the Planck regime is really far away from what we do.

However, Dittrich thinks that theres probably not one fundamental clock in the universe, but rather there are likely a variety of processes that could be used to measure time.

Still, the new result edges closer to the Planck regime than experiments at the worlds largest particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider, Bojowald says. In the future, even more precise atomic clocks could provide further information about what makes the universe tick.

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Study: The Period of the Universe’s Clock – lintelligencer

Posted: at 5:28 pm

A trio of theorists has modeled time as a universal quantum oscillator and found an upper bound of 1033 seconds for the oscillators period. This value lies well below the shortest ticks of todays best atomic clocks, making it unmeasurable. But the researchers say that atomic clocks could be used to indirectly confirm their models predictions.

Physics has a time problem: In quantum mechanics, time is universal and absolute, continuously ticking forward as interactions occur between particles. But in general relativity (the theory that describes classical gravity), time is malleableclocks located at different places in a gravitational field tick at different rates. Theorists developing a quantum theory of gravity must reconcile these two descriptions of time. Many agree that the solution requires that time be defined not as a continuous coordinate, but instead as the ticking of some physical clock, says Flaminia Giacomini, a quantum theorist at Canadas Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (PITP).

Such a fundamental clock would permeate the Universe, somewhat like the Higgs field from particle physics. Similar to the Higgs field, the clock could interact with matter, and it could potentially modify physical phenomena, says Martin Bojowald of Pennsylvania State University in University Park.

But researchers have yet to develop a theory for such a clock, and they still dont understand the fundamental nature of time. Aiming to gain insights into both problems, Bojowald and his colleagues imagined the universal clock as an oscillator and set out to derive its period. Their hope was that doing so might offer ideas for how to probe times fundamental properties.

In the model, the team considers two quantum oscillators, which act like quantum pendulums oscillating at different rates. The faster oscillator represents the universal, fundamental clock, and the slower one represents a measurable system in the lab, such as the atom of an atomic clock. The team couples the oscillators to allow them to interact. The nature of this coupling is different from classical oscillators, which are coupled through a common force. Instead, the coupling is imposed by requiring that the net energy of the oscillators remains constant in timea condition derived directly from general relativity.

The team finds that this interaction causes the two oscillators to slowly desynchronize. The desynching means that it would be impossible for any physical clock to indefinitely maintain ticks of a constant period, placing a fundamental limit on the precision of clocks. As a result, the ticks of two identically built atomic clocks, for example, would never completely agree, if measured at this precision limit. Observing this behavior would allow researchers to confirm that time has a fundamental period, Bojowald says.

Bojowald and his colleagues used the desynchronization property to derive an upper limit of 1033 seconds for the period of their fundamental oscillating clock. This limit is 1015 times shorter than the tick of todays best atomic clocks and 1010 times longer than the Planck time, a proposed length for the shortest measurable unit of time.

Resolving a unit of Planck time is far beyond current technologies. But the new model potentially allows researchers to get much closer than before, says Bianca Dittrich, who studies quantum gravity at PITP. Bojowald agrees. Using the timescale of the desynchronization between clocks to make time measurements, rather than the clocks themselves, could allow for measurements on much shorter timescales, he says.

Another bonus of choosing an oscillating quantum system as the model for a fundamental clock is that such a system closely resembles clocks used in the lab, says Esteban Castro-Ruiz, of the Universit Libre de Bruxelles, who studies problems involving quantum clocks and gravity. The resemblance is key, says Castro-Ruiz, because it brings the question of a fundamental period of time to a more concrete setting, where one can actually start thinking about measurable consequences.

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In Dan Brown’s AI Hype Novel, the Hero Stumbles Onto God – Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence

Posted: at 5:27 pm

In a recent podcast, John Lennox: False Assumptions in the hype over AI, Oxford mathematician John Lennox, author of 2084: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humanity (2020) discussed common mistaken assumptions with Walter Bradley Center director Robert J. Marks.

One of them seems to be that AI might prove there is no God, replace God, or become God. Things get interesting when these science fictions meet the world of fact.

From the transcript:

Robert J. Marks: In your book, you discussed Dan Browns novel entitled Origin. Now Dan Brown is famous for writing many, I dont know, kind of strange books. One was the Da Vinci Code, but his recent one deals with artificial intelligence and you discuss his novel as the springboard for your discussion about AI in the future. What did you find appealing or compelling about Browns novel that you commented on it so much?

John Lennox: Well, it was the actual story line. The main character in Origin is a billionaire computer scientist and AI expert whos called Edmond Kirsch, and he claims to have solved the fundamental big questions that everybody asks at some time, Where do we come from and where are we going? And he uses AI in the novel to answer these questions. But his intention is philosophical, and thats what caught my attention. In fact, somebody told me that this was in the book and thats why I read it.

His goal was to, I quote, employ the truth of science to destroy the myth of religions, in particular Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, and he actually concentrates on Christianity. And so here is someone using AI to answer these big questions in such a way as to completely destroy, in his view, religions answers and hes using AI to do it. And the kind of AI involved is, of course, the more science fiction type. Its the advanced technological modification of human beings into transhuman beings or into super intelligences. And I was very interested in the kind of philosophy thats coming through. And that was one of my motives for writing this book.

Robert J. Marks: I see. Dan Brown has some presuppositions, doesnt he?

John Lennox: Oh, of course he has presuppositions. And its hard to really disentangle his own presuppositions from those of his main characters, except for the very interesting fact that the hero of many of his books is a professor of symbology, whatever that means, called Robert Langdon. And hes an expert at recognizing all sorts of mysterious and rare and hidden patterns in things.

But one of the astonishing things about the book was when Langdon is asked the question about the origin of the genetic code, which figures very largely in the book and theres great interest in developing exactly what this involves. And Landon says something like this, and it raises the questions of God. He says, The question of God, for me, lies in understanding the difference between codes and patterns. Patterns occur everywhere in nature, the spiraling seeds of a sunflower, the hexagonal cells of a honeycomb and so on. Codes are special. Codes by definition must carry information. Codes must transmit data and convey meaning.

And he ends up by saying, Codes are the deliberate inventions of intelligent consciousness. They dont appear organically, they must be created.

And one of the other female heroes in the book says, You think DNA was created by an intelligence?

And he just goes as far as saying, I feel as if Im seeing a living footprint, the shadow of some greater force that is just beyond our grasp.

And I thought, This is utterly fascinating. In a book by someone whos trying to bring down religion by the use of AI, what hes doing is actually heightening evidence for the existence of God by postulating an intelligent designer for DNA. So its a very complex thing.

Robert J. Marks: Very interesting. So Dan Brown, who is obviously agnostic, or certainly not religious in any sense, came to the logical conclusion that I think many theists or deists do, that there must be a creator behind some of these things. At least he was intellectually honest at the end.

Note: The full transcript is available as a download at the podcast page. Show Notes and Resources may be found below.

In an earlier podcast, Lennox and Marx discussed 2084 vs 1984the difference AI could make to Big Brother There, Lennox made the point that we need to seriously think about whether the surveillance AI technology enables is an advantage before were engulfed by it.

You may also enjoy:

John Lennox: How AI raises the stakes for all of us. AI could cause more serious problems than nuclear energy. You cannot build a bomb in your bedroom but you could hack your way around the world.

and

Exclusive!: John Lennox answers our questions about AI in 2084. In his new book, 2084, the Oxford mathematician doubts that AI, now or then, will out-think humans. Our real worry is how the tech will be used.

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Quote of the Day on the Morality of Those Seeking Heaven – Patheos

Posted: at 5:27 pm

I will be expanding on this, but this point from a regular astute commenter is exactly one that I have touched upon here:

Heaven & Hell Stop You From Genuinely Morally Evaluating

But if you cant be bothered to read that, read(((J_Enigma32)))s recent comment:

Oh, theres a bunch of problems with heaven, but all of it anchors around the reward based-system that religion depends on. Youre never virtuous for your own sake; youre always acting according to your own idea of virtue because you know if you dont, you wont get into heaven. Therefore, one could argue that by your own standards, you arent a virtuous person if you believe in heaven and are motivated by heaven as a potential reward. And thats before we get into the issue of heaven dividing families and the suffering that will inevitably cause. Its what happens when your reward system is individually based rather than focused on something like a society as a whole.The very existence of heaven implies that morality is unimportant; if morality were important and satisfying, then that would be the end goal itself and morality and virtue would be seen as an atelic activity rather than a telic one.

Its a problem that results from all teleological narratives, actually, where they be religious ideas of realitys nature or the historical narratives of the orthodoxy, pushing their particular brand of nationalism, or some libertarian transhumanists, who think were moving closer to something they call a singularity by virtue of their historical narrative of the endless self-improving nature of technology. All of those are wrong, just like heaven is wrong, but theyre all wrong in an understandably human way, and one that fails to account for the hedonic treadmill, which is vital to a discussion like this.

To which marblesanswered:

This was a joy to read, thanks.

one could argue that by your own standards, you arent a virtuous person if you believe in heaven and are motivated by heaven as a potential reward

I actually asked my youth pastor about this when I was around 11 or 12. She laughed and told me not to overthink it, just be a good person for whatever reason I want to.

Addendum: as I see it, if youre only practicing virtue in the hopes of a reward, your true nature shows itself sooner or later. You can always rationalize why youre totally going to Heaven no matter how repulsive a human being you are.

So, can you ever be truly moral, truly alturistic? Its the classic question that I remember debating at school (even then, I surmised that you couldnt). Either way, its even harder with the twin ultimate conceptual blackmails of heaven and hell hanging over you.

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Yahoo News – Latest News & Headlines

Posted: at 5:26 pm

U.S.

Yahoo News

A Citizens Academy planned by a branch of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which will include scenario-based training and exercises, is spreading alarm among civil liberties and immigration rights organizations which question why the agency is devoting resources to providing civilians with firearms familiarization and instruction in targeted arrests. The program, set to begin in Chicago this fall as a pilot for nationwide implementation, will be run by ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations branch, which is responsible for detaining and deporting immigrants. A memo from Robert Guadian, the director of ICE ERO's Chicago field office, which was obtained by Yahoo News, describes a six-week program (four-hour sessions held once a week) during which participants will gain insight into the many facets and responsibilities of ICE/ERO operations through, among other things, scenario-based training and exercises conducted in a safe and positive environment, including, but not limited to, defensive tactics, firearms familiarization, and targeted arrests.

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These restaurants have filed for bankruptcy and many more are at risk – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 5:26 pm

In life after COVID-19, the local restaurant scene may be no more than a KFC, McDonalds, Burger King and one or two overpriced craft cocktail bars serving tapas which somehow managed to survive the financial distress from the pandemic.

We have to have a bailout [of the restaurant industry], said celebrity chef and owner of restaurant Blue Dragon Ming Tsai onYahoo Finances The First Trade. I dont know if the government understands the severity of this problem. We may be left with just chain restaurants and fast-food restaurants if the government doesnt react.

With government assistance nowhere in sight, Tsai may not be too far off the mark as seen through a rising number of restaurant bankruptcies.

There have been eight bankruptcies of outright restaurant chains or operators of franchises since early April (graphic below). With each month that has passed, the filings have become prominent as restaurants struggle with weak traffic after being allowed to reopen by states, piles of debt and sky-high rent. The latest two high-profile names include childrens fun house Chuck E. Cheese and Wendys and Pizza Hut franchisee NPC International.

Chuck E. Cheese operates 555 locations in the U.S., which hang in the balance as it looks to restructure in courts. NPC International maintains a portfolio of 1,600 locations that also have a questionable post bankruptcy future.

Credit rating agency Fitch has warned more bankruptcies in the restaurant space wait in the wings.

Less frequent visits due to shifts in dining to delivery service or to increasingly popular healthier quick-service options will put more pressure on traffic at some brands at the same time the restaurants face increased competition from ready-to-cook meals available in supermarkets or via home delivery,' said Fitch director Lyle Margolis in a recent report.

Fitch warned that Checkers Drive-In Restaurants and Steak n Shake Operations are at risk of default. The Wall Street Journal reported in late June that Checkers had hired restructuring advisors to explore a potential restructuring.

Tsai thinks when its all said and done with the pandemic, some 50% of the countrys 1 million restaurants may no longer be open. His estimate is in line with others Yahoo Finance has talked with in recent months. All experts agree that fresh dine-in restrictions by states on fears of a second wave of COVID-19 infections would be the final straw for small- to mid-size restaurants and even franchisees of well-known chains.

You dont know how long it lasts, the predictions are going to be unreliable for the next couple of quarters, said long-time Dennys CEO John Miller on the industry upheaval. There are PPP loans, Main Street lending, a number of programs to help people get through the difficult time. As long as it recovers as fast as the virus is arrested one way or another, then we believe certainly within a year to a year and a half, things could be in pretty good shape and not as damaging as people might believe at the moment. There will be some shakeout.

Brian Sozziis an editor-at-large and co-anchor ofThe First Tradeat Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter@BrianSozziand onLinkedIn.

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Trump identifies another hoax: The coronavirus – Yahoo News

Posted: at 5:26 pm

President Trump has called many things hoaxes over the years the investigation into his 2016 campaigns dealings with Russia, his impeachment, global warming but on Monday he called into question the existence of an epidemic that has killed more than 135,000 Americans.

During a flurry of activity on his Twitter account, Trump retweeted a message from game show host Chuck Woolery that claimed everyone is lying about the coronavirus as part of a plot to sabotage the economy and hurt Trumps reelection campaign.

The most outrageous lies are the ones about Covid 19, wrote Woolery in the message promoted by Trump. Everyone is lying. The CDC, Media, Democrats, our Doctors, not all but most ,that we are told to trust. I think its all about the election and keeping the economy from coming back, which is about the election. Im sick of it.

Asked about the retweet at a briefing later Monday, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said that the notion of the tweet was to point out the fact that when we use science, we have to use it in a way that is not political.

A key problem keeping the economy from coming back is the 135,000 Americans dead from the coronavirus, per tracking by Johns Hopkins University, which reported 61,352 new cases and 685 deaths on Saturday. Woolery didnt say whether he thought the death toll was faked. Florida set a record for most single-day cases of any state so far with more than 15,000 reported Saturday, the same day Walt Disney World reopened in Orlando. Arizona, California, Florida, Mississippi and Texas have all set record highs for daily deaths over the last week.

Trump sometimes uses hoax as an all-purpose denigration of opinions or facts he doesnt like. In February he called criticism of his administrations response to the coronavirus the Democrats new hoax, but he didnt quite deny the existence of the epidemic, as Woolery appeared to do in his tweet.

There is no obvious precedent for a president repeating criticism that a key agency in his own administration the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is lying, except for Trump himself, and the many times he has accused the FBI and the intelligence services of intentionally undermining him.

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Around the same time, Trumps former acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who belongs to none of the categories Woolery said were telling outrageous lies about COVID-19, signified that he took the pandemic seriously. In an op-ed published on the CNBC website, Mulvaney wrote: I know it isnt popular to talk about in some Republican circles, but we still have a testing problem in this country. My son was tested recently; we had to wait 5 to 7 days for results. My daughter wanted to get tested before visiting her grandparents, but was told she didnt qualify. That is simply inexcusable at this point in the pandemic.

Trump also retweeted Woolerys statement There is so much evidence, yes scientific evidence, that schools should open this fall. Its worldwide and its overwhelming. BUT NO.

The mortality rate in children is lower from the virus, but theres still much researchers dont know about COVID-19, including the potential long-term effects on children and their ability to spread it to older, more vulnerable relatives and caregivers. Teachers unions say their members are reluctant to return to classrooms until the epidemic is under control.On Friday, the American Academy of Pediatrics hedged its initial plan for in-person schooling by releasing a statement that said, Public health agencies must make recommendations based on evidence, not politics and Science and community circumstances must guide decision-making.

Its accurate that other countries are planning to open schools in the fall, but they did a better job at suppressing the virus through testing, contact tracing and communicating the importance of masks than the U.S. government.

Trump has downplayed the deaths of Americans previously while in office, stating that the death toll in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria wasnt as high as multiple studies concluded after the White Houses slow response to the natural disaster was criticized.

3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico, Trump said in September 2018, a year after the storm. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000.

The official Hurricane Maria death toll, according to the Puerto Rican government, is 2,975. That number, calculated by researchers with the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University, is lower than that of a Harvard study, which put the number at 4,645. Either number would make Maria the deadliest natural disaster in the United States in over a century.

The president has consistently called the investigation into Russias influence on the 2016 election a hoax, but special counsel Robert Muellers team found evidence there was foreign interference and contact between Trump adviser Roger Stone and Russian intelligence officers.

We also identified numerous links between the Russian government and Trump campaign personnel Stone among them, Mueller wrote Saturday in a Washington Post op-ed. We did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired with the Russian government in its activities. The investigation did, however, establish that the Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome. It also established that the campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts.

Trump also called his impeachment over his attempts to pressure Ukraine into releasing damaging information on Joe Biden a hoax, although a majority of the House nearly every Democrat and Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, a Republican turned independent voted to impeach him on counts of abuse of power and obstructing Congress. Every Democratic senator along with Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah voted to convict on the abuse-of-power charge, but they fell short of the 67 votes needed to remove him from office, as the other 52 Republican senators supported the president.

Trump has repeatedly called global warming a hoax, at one point saying it was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive. A vast majority of scientists believe that humans are causing climate change, and last month a Russian town within the Arctic Circle saw a record temperature of 100.4 degrees.

Cover thumbnail image: President Trump and hoaxes. (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: AP, Getty Images [2])

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Bank analysts warn of ‘confusing, sloppy, and shocking’ earnings as COVID-19 extends grip – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 5:25 pm

Bank earnings could reveal ugly-looking loan portfolios for the second quarter, but the industry hopes to champion its investment banking and cost-cutting efforts to squeeze out earnings.

Earnings season will kick off on Tuesday as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) report earnings before the market bell, covering the large U.S. banks performances through the three-month period ended June 30.

The upcoming [second quarter] earnings will be confusing, sloppy, and shocking for some banks, RBCs Gerard Cassidy wrote July 11. But our outlook is cautiously optimistic as we expect the economy to continue to gain momentum into the end of the year.

Earnings growth at the large banks will likely be hobbled by dramatic increases in loan loss reserves, as business struggles and job losses impair loan payments across the U.S. economy.

Lower interest rates have also compressed bank profitability, as the Federal Reserves rate cuts have spurred lower interest rates of both short and long durations.

KBW bank analyst Brian Kleinhanzl expects bank earnings to be down 24.9% year-over-year for the median bank this quarter.

[T]here are still open questions on the ultimate amount of credit losses that will be borne by the banks, and until there is greater certainty on that, we believe it will be difficult for banks to outperform the market, Kleinhanzl wrote July 1.

The bank industry has had a rough 2020 relative to the overall market, suffering steeper losses during late-Marchs tumultuous market tumble and a more tepid bounce back in the months following.

As of Monday afternoon, the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (^BKX) was down over 34% year-to-date. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has effectively recovered its losses, and is now down only 1.5% year-to-date.

As banks brace for greater loan losses through those reserve builds, large U.S. banks with diversified revenue streams may look beyond the loan books to make money.

KBW and RBC noted that the companies with large investment banking divisions are poised for success in the second quarter, specifically highlighting JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS).

Capital markets were likely aided during the second quarter by the Federal Reserves liquidity interventions in a number of markets (such as municipal debt, corporate debt, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. dollar funding) that restored confidence among market-makers like the large investment banks.

We are expecting very strong trading results this quarter as credit spreads have compressed, bid-ask spreads remain wide, and trading activity remains high, Kleinhanzl wrote.

At RBC, Cassidy expects investment banking revenues to rise by 6.8% year-over-year among the largest U.S. banks, driven by higher gains specifically in debt capital markets.

Banks may also highlight cost-cutting in their earnings. Some banks are already trimming headcount; Bloomberg reported last week that Wells Fargo is planning thousands of job cuts.

The San Francisco-based bank, however, has been dealing with reputational and regulatory challenges over the past few years and will likely be the only large bank to announce a dividend cut in earnings this week. Due to the COVID-19 disruptions, the Federal Reserve has barred the largest U.S. banks from share buybacks through at least the third quarter, although banks are still allowed to pay out dividends.

But secular trends in the banking industry have pointed to reduced headcount well before the arrival of COVID-19. Wells Fargos banking analyst Mike Mayo has predicted that automation and the growth of mobile banking will lead to 200,000 job cuts over the next 10 years.

Brian Cheung is a reporter covering the Fed, economics, and banking for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter@bcheungz.

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Bank analysts warn of 'confusing, sloppy, and shocking' earnings as COVID-19 extends grip - Yahoo Finance

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