Monthly Archives: January 2020

The US president had no plan, no scheme, no constructive ideas whatever, according to one of the worlds most influential economists.

He was in many respects, perhaps inevitably, ill-informed. He was slow-minded and bewildered, and failed to remedy these defects by seeking advice. He gathered around him businessmen, inexperienced in public affairs and only called in irregularly.

This assessment was written a century ago, in 1919, by the up-and-coming economist John Maynard Keynes.

The president was Woodrow Wilson, whom Keynes criticised for his inability to influence Europes post-first world war settlement in a way more likely to lead to peace and prosperity.

A century later the United States has another president out of his depth in global affairs. Wilson, at least, was a generously intentioned man. What would Keynes make of Donald Trump, whose policies are driven by a sense of entitlement and fear of being played for a sucker?

This week, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump flagged new fronts in his dangerous campaign of economic nationalism. He reaffirmed his intention to reshape the World Trade Organization, which he said been very unfair to the United States for many, many years.

Read more: Myth busted: Chinas status as a developing country gives it few benefits in the World Trade Organisation

He fretted about the tremendous advantages given to China and India. He threatened tariffs on European cars if the European Union didnt agree to a fair free-trade deal.

The barrier-besotted president is pretty much everything Keynes warned against as ruinous to the prospects of a lasting peace.

Keynes had observed Wilson at the talks in Paris to conclude the Treaty of Versailles, which set out the detail of terms and conditions following Germanys surrender (on November 11 1918) to end the war.

Wilson had proposed 14 points for a just and stable peace but proved completely ineffectual at the talks. The result was a treaty with terms so punitive for Germany they arguably created the conditions for Adolf Hitler to come to power, and thus led to the second world war.

Keyness disquiet with the treaty led him to write the book The Economic Consequences of the Peace.

Wilsons great failure was his inability to prevent punitive action. Trumps is his love of punitive action. If his default stance in international diplomacy was to be summed up in a three-word slogan, it would be Make Them Pay.

In the longer term his administrations intransigence on climate change may well prove Trumps worst policy legacy to the world. But right now he is doing most damage through bringing back tariffs, particularly in the trade war started with China.

Trump has claimed (more than a hundred times in 2019, by one count) that he has made China pay by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. The truth, of course, is that US import tariffs were almost completely passed through into US domestic prices. China pays through its goods being less competitive.

Trump has bragged just as loudly about winning the peace. A week ago he declared a phase one trade deal as the biggest deal anybody has ever seen.

But really all this agreement does is reverse some of the harmful actions the US has taken. It has been aptly called a partial and defective truce.

This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated modelling first published in October 2019 estimating the damage the US-China trade war will do in 2020.

Its initial modelling estimated the tit-for-tat tariffs would reduce the level of global GDP in 2020 by 0.8 percentage points. Trumps biggest deal anybody has ever seen will reduce that harm, but by just 0.3 percentage points, meaning world growth will be 3.3%, rather than 3.8% in 2020. And thats only, says IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, if the deal proves durable.

The IMFs October 2019 modelling included a breakdown of how much various economies would suffer in 2020 from the trade war. It estimated Chinas real GDP would be 2 percentage points lower than otherwise, with the US down 0.6 percentage points. Europe and Japan would lose about 0.5 percentage points.

Chinas economy is growing at three times the rate of the US an estimated 6% compared with 2% so the hit is almost equal. In terms of lost GDP per capita a proxy measure for how much the tariffs cost individuals on average the cost is about US$400 a year for both US and Chinese citizens.

Given Chinas median income is well below that of the US, that forgone extra income hurts more in China something fitting the Trumpian narrative that the trade war is making China pay more.

But the lesson of history is that punitive actions come back to bite. As Keynes so eloquently wrote a century ago, the prosperity and happiness of one country promotes that of others.

Read more: What's worse than the US-China trade war? A grand peace bargain

Crucial to peace and prosperity, Keynes said, was free trade, which he hoped could mitigate the adverse new political frontiers now created between greedy, jealous, immature, and economically incomplete nationalist States.

Wilson aspired but failed to replace a world order based on conflict between great powers with one based on rules and reason. Trump, by contrast, seems to prefer conflict over rules and reason.

A punitive approach to international economic relations failed a century ago. We have good reason to fear it now.

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'Slow-minded and bewildered': Donald Trump builds barriers to peace and prosperity - The Conversation AU

President Donald Trump is threatening to launch a damaging new trade war with the United Kingdom as the country prepares to leave the European Union.

In recent weeks, the president and his allies have issued a series of threats to the UK on everything from telecoms to vehicle tariffs to security cooperation.

Meanwhile, the UK Parliament on Wednesday voted to ratify Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit agreement with the EU, paving the way for Britain's exit on January 31.

As Johnson prepares to seek new trade deals outside the EU, the Trump administration is poised to take advantage of the UK's vulnerable new position on the world stage.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Trump. Getty

Johnson's administration has pledged to implement a 2% tax on the revenue that tech companies such as Facebook and Google make from users in the UK starting this April.

The levy is designed to target international companies that the UK government believes use their position to avoid taxes in the UK.

Johnson's spokesman said at a press briefing this week that these companies, most of which are based in the US, were "undermining public trust and confidence in our economic system."

However, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin responded to what the UK has described as a "proportionate" tax by threatening a new trade war with the UK over the issue.

"If people want to arbitrarily put taxes on our digital companies, we will consider arbitrarily putting taxes on car companies," Mnuchin said this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The automotive industry is a key part of the UK economy, and almost a fifth of overseas sales of UK vehicles go to the US.

Johnson's spokesman said that such a trade war would "harm businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic."

The UK's international trade secretary, Liz Truss, was also bullish on the issue, saying on Thursday that the UK's policy was "not a matter for the US," "not a matter for the EU," and "not a matter for anybody else."

Johnson and Trump. Stefan Rousseau/Reuters

Threats of a new trade war could escalate if the UK government pushes ahead with its plan to defy Trump and strike a deal with Huawei, the Chinese telecoms company building a 5G network.

Trump has warned the UK that the intelligence-sharing arrangement between the two allies would be at risk if the deal goes ahead, with US officials saying last week that Trump "is watching closely."

However, Johnson has suggested he would allow the Huawei deal to go ahead despite Trump's threats, telling the BBC last week that "the British public deserves access to the best possible technology."

He added: "If people oppose one brand or another, they have to tell us, what's the alternative?"

Phil Hogan, the EU trade commissioner, said at an event in London last week that the president's threat was simply not credible.

"I don't think that will happen at the end of the day," he said.

"You can call their bluff on that one."

Johnson and Trump. Getty

The United Kingdom remains committed to the Iran nuclear deal despite Trump's pulling the US out of the agreement in 2018.

Johnson last week joined with other European leaders in signing a letter endorsing the deal, which they see as the best chance of bringing Iran back into the fold and preventing a devastating conflict with the US.

However, Trump's threats to impose 25% tariffs on European vehicles appear to have played a part in forcing those European countries to invoke the deal's dispute mechanism, which could ultimately cause it to fall apart.

Johnson's administration has repeatedly criticized Trump's stance toward Iran, with the prime minister earlier this month warning that the president's threat of targeting Iranian cultural sites could be a war crime.

Now, as Britain prepares to enter new trade negotiations with the US, the threat of more punitive trade retaliation by Trump looms over the UK.

Trump. Carolyn Kaster/AP

Johnson's administration hit back against Trump's threats earlier this month with a threat of its own.

Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told The Sunday Times that Trump's isolationist foreign policy meant the UK was considering drawing back from its long-standing defense alliance with the US.

"Over the last year we've had the US pullout from Syria, the statement by Donald Trump on Iraq where he said NATO should take over and do more in the Middle East," Wallace said.

"The assumptions of 2010 that we were always going to be part of a US coalition is really just not where we are going to be."

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Trump is threatening a damaging new trade war with the United Kingdom after Brexit - Business Insider - Business Insider

In the first episode of our new podcast, our editors examine the impact of President Trump's foreign policy

Listen on: Apple Podcasts | Google | Spotify | Acast | Stitcher | TuneIn

HOW FAR has President Donald Trump delivered on his promise to remake American power in the world? With so much attention focused on the impeachment drama originating in Ukraine, John Prideaux, The Economists US editor, identifies the places more likely to determine the fate of Trumps presidency. And has Americas global standing been damaged as Trumps critics allege? Co-hosts Charlotte Howard, New York bureau chief, and Washington correspondent Jon Fasman debate President Trumps foreign policy with David Rennie, Beijing bureau chief, and Shashank Joshi, defence editor. Runtime: 39 min

Please subscribe to The Economist for full access to print, digital and audio editions: http://www.economist.com/radiooffer

And sign up for our Checks and Balance newsletter to receive exclusive analysis of the campaign and a selection of stories in your inbox each Friday.

Listen on: Apple Podcasts | Google | Spotify | Acast | Stitcher | TuneIn

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Has Donald Trump delivered on his promise to remake American power in the world? - Economist - Portugal

On Jan. 16, 2020, Lev Parnas, the American businessman who allegedly worked with U.S. President Donald Trumps attorney Rudy Giuliani to pressure the Ukraine to investigate the presidents political rivals, appeared on The Rachel Maddow Show to tell his version of events that led to the presidents impeachment. While Trump would later say I dont know who this man is, the photographic record appears to tell a different story.

As Parnas name moved from obscurity to infamy, photographs showing Parnas with various members of the Trump family, the Trump administration, and the president himself started to circulate on social media. While most of these images are genuine, some social media users attempted to strengthen the connection between Trump and Parnas by sharing a photograph that allegedly showed Parnas and Trump at a family birthday party when their children were young:

The claim that the man in this photograph is Lev Parnas is not based on any credible information. This claim is based solely on the notion that the man in the photograph bears a passing resemblance to Parnas. However, Parnas name was not attached to this picture until close to three decades after it was taken. And from what we can tell, Parnas is too young to be the man pictured here.

This photograph was not taken at a party for Levs kid. It was actually taken in 1990 at a birthday party for Trumps son, Eric, who had just turned 6. The picture first received media attention in 2017 with the release of the book Raising Trump by Ivana Trump, the presidents first wife.

ABC News published this photograph in an article about the book with the caption: Ivana Trump shares a family photo from Eric Trumps sixth birthday party at the Plaza Hotel in New York City in 1990.

Heres the full photograph:

Parnas was born in 1972 and would have been approximately 18 when this photograph was taken. The man in this photograph, however, appears to be much older than a teenager. By comparison, Donald Trump, who was born in 1946, was approximately 44 when this photograph was taken.

Some social media users have pointed to a report in the New Yorker to bolster the claim that Parnas is indeed the man in this photograph. While the The New Yorker reported that Parnas started selling Trump Organization co-ops for Kings Highway Realty when he was 16, theres no indication that Parnas had a familiar relationship with the Trump family at that time. In fact, Parnas said that while he bumped into Trump occasionally at events in New York over the years, he didnt get to know the president until the 2016 presidential campaign (emphasis ours):

Parnas soon became a regular at Trumps rallies and other gatherings. I started donating. We started to help raise money, he said. Gradually, Parnas said that he got to know other Trump donors, including Tommy Hicks, Jr., a private-equity investor in Texas who is close to Donald Trump, Jr. (Hicks has since become the co-chair of the Republican National Committee.)We became one big family, Parnas said. You got to understand, he didnt have a real campaign, a traditional campaign. It was make-it-up, you know. Like him or not, you understand what it is. It was more, like, you know, wed bump into each other constantly because it was all the same people, there were not that many of us. Parnas told me that he bumped into Trump plenty of times at events in New York over the years, but that they didnt get to know each other until the 2016 campaign. (Trump recently distanced himself from Parnas and [businessman Igor] Fruman, saying, I dont know those gentlemen. Now, its possible I have a picture with them, because I have a picture with everybody.)

In sum, the claim that the above-displayed picture shows Parnas with the Trumps at a family birthday party in the 1990s is not supported by evidence. This claim is based solely on the notion that the pictured man and Parnas bear a passing resemblance to one another. However, Parnas was only 18 at the time this photograph was taken (while the pictured man looks much older), his name wasnt attached to this image until it became a political weapon 30 years later, and Parnas himself said that he didnt get to know Trump until 2015.

Continued here:

Is This Lev Parnas at a Family Birthday Party with Donald Trump? - Snopes.com

Nearly four years after then-presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would eliminate the federal debt in eight years, the deficit has since risen by more than 16 percent under his presidency.

On Tuesday, attorney George Conway, a frequent Trump critic and husband of White House Special Counsel Kellyanne Conway, pointed out that three years into Trump's first term as president, the national debt increased by $3 trillion, bringing it to over $23 trillion now. Conway cited figures from the National Debt Tweets in his tweet.

As a Republican presidential candidate, Trump said he would eliminate the national debt in eight years, which was $19 trillion in 2016, according to The Washington Post. Asked by journalist Bob Woodward if that would involving raising taxes to ease the problem, Trump responded: "I don't think I'll need to. The power is trade. Our deals are so bad."

But as of January, President Trump signed $4.7 trillion more into the debt until 2029, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

At a private dinner with wealthy donors last Friday, just days before the third anniversary of his inauguration, the president brushed off critics amid concerns of his spending and growing national debt. "Who the hell cares about the budget? We're going to have a country," he said, as reported by The Washington Post.

The national debt has increased significantly under both the Bush and Obama administrations, increasing about 101 percent from the end of Clinton's administration to the end of Bush's. Republicans criticized Obama for doubling debt by nearly $9 trillion.

According to CRFB President Maya McGuineas, the deficit would have increased under Trump, even if he hadn't signed any legislation. But the new policies he signed beginning in 2017 reflect further spending, which is unusual during a period of economic growth.

"Just like the economic performance isn't totally attributable to the president, the existing policies that are baked into the cake don't reflect Trump's initiative," MacGuineas told Newsweek. "The laws he's signed, though, do. And in this case, he's signed into law two major tax cuts--the one that everybody notices."

The two pieces of legislation that added the most to the national debt are the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and the 2018 and 2019 Bipartisan Budget Acts (BBA), according to CRFB. In addition to these, the ACA Tax Repeal and other legislation--which included disaster relief, emergency spending, and ACA tax delays, signed in December 2019--added a combined total of about $665 billion.

MacGuineas also said that laws Trump has signed have increased spending, without revenue increasing enough to maintain it, creating more debt than expected. "There were a number of increases that were already on track that came from our growing healthcare and retirement cost. But President Trump massively exacerbated that problem with the laws he signed, which included creating lower revenues and higher spending. And obviously, because of the laws of math, that means we're left with much larger borrowing," she said. "What's unusual is that during a period of economic expansion the borrowing would be increasing from year to year, but that's what's been happening under President Trump."

The increased spending elevated the deficit. The TCJA act has added $1.8 trillion to the debt and can add another trillion dollars, if tax cuts are extended past their 2025 expiration.

During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump not only planned to eliminate the national debt, but also planned to balance the national budget and eliminate budget deficit. However, the increased spending with less income has kept deficits high. A Congressional Budget Office projection predicts $1 trillion deficits annually from 2020 to 2028.

"It's really unusual to be borrowing this much, when the economy is this strong. In fact, we've never had a deficit this large relative to GDP, when the economy was growing this strongly," MacGuineas said. "Deficits have their role, but at this point in the business cycle there is no need for the borrowing that we are undertaking."

Both BBAs added a total $2.2 trillion, mainly by increasing defense and non-defense spending caps through 2021.

When asked if there was anything that can be done to make improvements to the debt, MacGuineas said much can be done with political will. "We're going to need to raise revenues and slow the growth of spending," she said. " That can look like repealing the tax cut, higher tax rates, or new taxes like the carbon tax. It can look like making fixes to our retirement and healthcare system. It can put back in spending caps like we had on defense or domestic discretionary. Frankly the problem is so large that we need to be looking at all those areas. What it really takes is honesty and political will and leadership."

Originally posted here:

National Debt Increased by $3 Trillion During Donald Trump's Three Years as President - Newsweek

Jim Carrey is trying to focus on the positive in 2020, and to do so, the actor and artist is moving on from one of his ugliest muses: President Donald J. Trump.

Between the parts Im playing and whats actually occurring in my life, its really extraordinary, Carrey said in an interview with IndieWire. Well, theres this political thing, but I basically didnt bring that into 2020 with me. Thats gone pretty much, for the most part.

Carrey spent much of 2019 creating satiric, politically-themed paintings, many of which blended topical Trump statements with critical portraits of the man himself. Since debuting his cartoons in August 2017, the actor has drawn (no pun intended) fire for some of his more controversial depictions, but hes also made his voice heard on plenty of vital issues. His last painting of the year (at least, the last painting he posted to Twitter) showed the presidents face peering into or, perhaps, merging with a toilet bowl, where his peculiar complaints about modern plumbing circled his angry visage.

Ive said what I need to say, and Ive allowed it to inhabit my body and cause whatever low vibrations do to a body. You know, I sounded my yelp, I warned people, and thats enough. They know how I feel, Carrey said. So Ill vote in November, and thats that. If the wheels come off the wagon completely, then Ill meet them in the street. But Im not going to waste another moment of my time with a narcissist, President whats his name again?

Instead, Carrey is finding positive inspirations in the new year. Along with the sentiment, Lets fill our hearts up with gratitude, he greeted 2020 with what appears to be a self-portrait of the actor ogling a mango, and continued the mango theme with two more posts.

But beyond mangoes, Carrey is excited about movies specifically, Bong Joon Hos Oscar-nominated film, Parasite. (Readers, be warned: Carreys enthusiasm crossed into spoiler-territory.)

Im excited about the films Im seeing, Carrey said. Im excited about Parasite! That fucking movie is amazing! I was just crying at the end of that movie because its everybodys relationship with their father they want to pull their father out of the cellar, [like] one day Ill do something and you can just walk up the stairs. Oh my God, man! Thats just genius. Thats just genius in its approach, its execution, everything, just genius.

Carrey also said he called Adam Sandler after watching Uncut Gems, lamenting its lack of Oscar recognition but loving the work itself. The Safdie brothers? Amazing! Carrey said, unprompted. Sandler I called up and I said, Hey, you didnt get the juice, but that shit rocked! You rocked it, my friend.'

Finally, Carrey also expressed his admiration for another Oscar-nominee, Taika Waititis Jojo Rabbit.

I absolutely adored JoJo Rabbit,' Carrey said. Im excited about the absolute buoyancy and brilliance of that. To take a subject that serious and treat it that way, thats heaven sent, man. Thats why were in this. Thats why we do this, movies like that. Its just gorgeous to me.

Carrey may not be in the 2020 Oscar race, but hes gearing up for a big spring. Kidding is set to return February 9 on Showtime, following a critically-hailed first season that also snagged two Golden Globe nominations (including a nod for Carreys performance). Hes also the villainous lead of Paramount Pictures Sonic the Hedgehog, which will hit theaters February 14.

Beyond those projects, Carrey is excited to keep challenging himself and to stay positive.

Im so excited for everybody. That those types of things are still being made, that great art is still being made gives me hope about everything. Its wonderful, and I just want to be in all of it, Carrey said, with a laugh.

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Jim Carrey Is Done with Donald Trump, Turns Artistic Energy to Great Art Like Parasite - IndieWire

PORTSMOUTH, Va (WAVY) Friday is the last day for opening statements from Democratic house managers when it comes to the impeachment hearings for President Donald Trump.

Theycontinue to focus on the obstruction of Congress charge against the president.

From the beginning, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia said the House of Representatives had no choice but to initiate a formal impeachment inquiry against Trump.

10 On Your Side spoke to Kaine on Friday.He expressed issues with evidence presented in the trial and said senators should have had access to that material earlier.

The fact that the White House was so adamant against producing any documents and that the Republican majority has so far stood against the presentation ofthefull evidence record, [that] suggests its not really a fair trial but more importantly to me, it suggests to me that they are afraid ofwhatis in those documents and they are afraid of what the witnesses will testify and that should tell the American public something, Kaine said.

Kaine says he knows the courtroom from front to back, but the one hat he has never worn is that of a juror.

We take an oath to do impartial justice and I have taken that oath. I have to grapple with three sets of questions. One, what are the facts? Two, do the facts establish either or both of the articles, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress? And if they do, do they establish them at such a level, a high crime or misdemeanor to warrant removal of the President from office? Kaine explained.

Kaine also discussed his view on the importance of the War Powers Resolution. It would prevent any president from starting a war with Iran without congressional approval. He says this should not be a controversial vote it states plainly what should be obvious based on the Constitution.

Trumps defense team takes over going into the weekend.

Republicansenate leaders say theyre planning for a short day.

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Sen. Tim Kaine says jurors must be impartial in Donald Trumps impeachment trial - WAVY.com