Monthly Archives: October 2019

Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews protested too much.

This government is not driven by dogma, he said near the end of the first quarter of his 4,500-word budget speech on Thursday. We are pragmatic about economic intervention, not doctrinaire.

By way of evidence, Toews offered the United Conservative governments decision to create the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corp. and seed it with $1 billion to help First Nations become partners in energy and resource development.

He also padded his interventionist-if-necessary credentials by highlighting the $1.9 billion he anticipates extracting from large emitters to fund the development of green technology, and the $200 million he set aside for skills development and the commercialization of research.

But if the goal of the digression was to showcase Premier Jason Kenneys government as open-minded and flexible, it was as convincing as Clark Kent hiding his true identity behind a pair of glasses. The governments commitment to orthodoxy is impressive. The risk is that it freezes Alberta in time as the rest of the world moves on.

The provinces budget is a tribute to the doctrine of low taxes and balanced budgets. Toews aims to erase a $9-billion shortfall in four years almost entirely by cutting spending, while implementing a big corporate tax cut and crossing his fingers that oil prices hold steady.

And while the finance minister speaks more softly than his boss, he is no less dogmatic when it comes to airing regional grievances. Toews told reporters that he doubted there was a bridge or school anywhere in Canada that hasnt benefited from Alberta energy. He said he plans to agitate for changes to the equalization program so that it would come to the provinces aid when times are tough.

If hes serious about doing a deal on equalization, he might want to stop behaving like a disgruntled benefactor, lest his counterparts point out how much aid could be generated by charging a sales tax.

Toewss budget is replete with examples of how Albertas spending exceeds the average of Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, yet says nothing about how little revenue the province seeks to collect from the countrys richest per-capita population. He did introduce a stealth increase by proposing to temporarily stop marking the basic income-tax deduction to inflation, but this would change little, as the finance department foresees taxes rising to 45 per cent of total revenue from 44 per cent currently.

Even if program spending growth is dramatically cut, the government must find a new source of stable revenues, David Dodge, the former Bank of Canada governor, said in a report on provincial finances earlier this year published by Bennett Jones, the law firm where he now works as an adviser. A provincial GST could help fill the gap without harming Albertas competitive position.

Albertas spending needed a trim to reflect the decline in oil royalties. Public debt charges surged 17 per cent between 2010 and 2018, according to Dodge and his co-author, Richard Dion. That was from a very low base, but still out of step with what was going on in the rest of the country. The second-biggest increase in public debt charges over that period was three per cent in Manitoba.

Tough economic times require tough policy decisions, said Sbastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities. The bottom line for bond investors is that the UCP government can restore Albertas public finances, as long as the budget proposals are efficiently put into action.

Toews plans to drop the provincial tax on corporate income to eight per cent in 2022 from 11 per cent currently, restoring the Alberta advantage. The combined federal and provincial rate would be 23 per cent, compared with 27 per cent in British Columbia, 27 per cent in nearby Oregon, and 28 per cent in California. Assuming other jurisdictions resist the urge to race Alberta to the bottom, there will be only a few places in North America where companies pay lower rates on profits.

The weight of historical evidence overwhelmingly shows that when we improve our corporate tax advantage, our provincial (gross domestic product) goes up and our share of national GDP increases, Toews said in his budget speech.

If only it were so simple.

The budget matches the ministers confidence in the power of tax cuts, predicting economic growth of 2.7 per cent in 2020, much faster than the average forecast of nine private forecasters, which was 2.1 per cent. The technocrats appear less certain that lower rates will pay for themselves, however, stating that corporate-tax cut will provide companies a fillip of $4.7 billion, but at a net fiscal cost of $2.4 billion.

Relatively high-tax Quebec will lead the country in economic growth this year, according to Bank of Nova Scotia, a spot normally held in recent years by high-tax British Columbia. Confiscatory tax rates havent stopped California and Oregon from become two of the wealthiest places on the planet. One thing all of those places have in common is booming technology industries. Alberta should be in their league, but its not, mostly because its waiting for a catalyst to bring all of its intellectual property, entrepreneurs and capital together.

Its not obvious that one of the lowest corporate rates in North America will do that. Toews scrapped five tax credits aimed at helping startups achieve scale. Purists will applaud that decision. However, a less doctrinaire finance minister might have left them in place to enable a shift away from oil. But Toews made clear this week that a balanced budget matters more than to him than diversifying the economy.

Reducing the corporate tax does not provide any financial advantage before you are profitable, which is true of most new ventures in the initial years, said Robert Price, founder of Calgary-based Bde, a digital real-estate company. What is the bigger picture approach to successful economic diversification? The UCP tax change is short-term thinking.

Financial Post

Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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Alberta delivers an orthodox budget that is short on long-term thinking - Financial Post

NEW DELHI: French President Emmanuel Macron announced a three-pronged security partnership with India in the southern Indian Ocean in the backdrop of Chinas growing ambitions in the region.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced a three-pronged security partnership with India in the southern Indian Ocean in the backdrop of Chinas growing ambitions in the region.

Macron stated that India and France were sharing the analysis of joint maritime security in the southern Indian Ocean, working on a joint maritime surveillance in the region and looking at possible deployment of an Indian Navy maritime patrol vessel in Reunion Island from the first quarter of 2020.

In an indirect reference to Chinas designs on the western and southern Indian Ocean Region, the French President said in his speech, We must protect the Great Indo-Pacific space for no hegemony to reign. A security presence in the region is essential for building this freedom in sovereignty and for establishing a common agenda.

Together with India, we have been working with PM Modi on a shared ocean vision and strengthened our operational cooperation for stability and security in the region....It's an unprecedented movement, a very profound change. A few years ago we had never planned to engage with our Indian friends here in the same way as the operations we did recently. This is the reality of this strategic agenda that we share, he said.

Macron said, This common security agenda in the region is an agenda of maritime surveillance, protection of our marine areas, construction of a joint agenda to avoid any form of hegemony or intrusion and it is noted that the France is the 2nd largest maritime power in the world.

The French Presidents comments came at the event where ministers of India, France and Vanilla Islands (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles in the western Indian Ocean) met to explore economic and development partnership. India was represented by the minister of state for external affairs V Muraleedharan at the first such ministerial meet.

India, in partnership with France, is keen to focus on port development, blue economy, trade, connectivity, tourism, skill development, hospitality and healthcare in this resource-rich region, said people aware of the matter. India is also eyeing gas deposits in the Mozambique Channel near Vanilla Islands.

The joint statement issued after Modis meeting with Macron on August 22 had indicated enhancement in the Indo-French partnership in the western Indian Ocean.

Based on a shared commitment to maintaining the freedom of navigation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific zone, maritime security cooperation between France and India is a domain of excellence in their strategic partnership, said the joint statement. surveillance in the region and looking at possible deployment of an Indian Navy maritime patrol vessel in Reunion Island from the first quarter of 2020.

In an indirect reference to Chinas designs on the western and southern Indian Ocean Region, the French President said in his speech, We must protect the Great Indo-Pacific space for no hegemony to reign. A security presence in the region is essential for building this freedom in sovereignty and for establishing a common agenda.

Together with India, we have been working with PM Modi on a shared ocean vision and strengthened our operational cooperation for stability and security in the region....It's an unprecedented movement, a very profound change. A few years ago we had never planned to engage with our Indian friends here in the same way as the operations we did recently. This is the reality of this strategic agenda that we share, he said.

Macron said, This common security agenda in the region is an agenda of maritime surveillance, protection of our marine areas, construction of a joint agenda to avoid any form of hegemony or intrusion and it is noted that the France is the 2nd largest maritime power in the world.

The French Presidents comments came at the event where ministers of India, France and Vanilla Islands (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles in the western Indian Ocean) met to explore economic and development partnership. India was represented by the minister of state for external affairs V Muraleedharan at the first such ministerial meet.

India, in partnership with France, is keen to focus on port development, blue economy, trade, connectivity, tourism, skill development, hospitality and healthcare in this resource-rich region, said people aware of the matter. India is also eyeing gas deposits in the Mozambique Channel near Vanilla Islands.

Based on a shared commitment to maintaining the freedom of navigation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific zone, maritime security cooperation between France and India is a domain of excellence in their strategic partnership, said the joint statement.

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French President announces 3-pronged security partnership with India for Southern Indian Ocean - Economic Times

Helicopter pilot Tony Chambers wants to launch a scenic ride business from the Jackson Hole Airport in Grand Teton National Park, but faces a headwind from the preserve and other conservationists.

Chambers, a Hoback Junction resident who hangars his Robinson 44 four-seat helicopter in Pinedale, told WyoFile he has been working on securing an agreement with the Jackson Hole Airport Board to operate commercially from its airstrip. The Jackson Hole Airport is the only such facility located completely in a national park, and operates under a lease with the federal government. Various noise-related laws, stipulations and rules govern flights in and near park airspace.

Chambers business plan reflects Wyoming priorities, he said. I feel like Im following the states initiative to create other sectors of the economy, specifically in tourism and hospitality, he said. Im not applying for any kind of flights or tours in Grand Teton National Park.

The tours would fly over the park on departure and again before landing at the airport, however. Chambers said a standard tour, as currently proposed, would take place mostly over the Bridger-Teton National Forest east of the park.

Im trying to create something thats an asset to the community and not a thorn, Chambers said.

But some, including the park itself, already find the idea of scenic helicopter rides launching from and returning to the airport prickly.

Park Acting Superintendent Gopaul Noojibail outlined numerous problems his agency sees with the helicopter proposal in a letter. We oppose your project, he wrote to Chambers in correspondence dated July 11.

It was a helicopter rescue in the Tetons that spurred Chambers interest in flying, according to his story posted on his companys website Wind River Air, LLC.

He was camped above 11,000 feet at the Lower Saddle of the Grand Teton when a Park Service rescue ship flew above him and landed on the Upper Saddle, the account reads. And, at that moment, Tony knew that someday he too would be a capable helicopter pilot.

A Salt Lake City native who has lived in both Jackson and Sublette County, Chambers worked in construction and volunteered for years with Sublettes Tip Top Search and Rescue. He earned his commercial pilots license in 2017.

Since then, hes worked toward getting a non-tenant special use agreement to operate commercially from the Jackson Hole airport, he said. A standard helicopter tour proposed under his plan would pick people up at the airport and fly them east over park land and over part of the National Elk Refuge before carrying them above the national forest on the east side of Jackson Hole.

The airship would turn north and fly toward Moran at the north end of the valley. It would then return to the airport within about a half hour.

The routes would be similar to the existing [fixed-wing] operator Fly Jackson Hole, he said. You could make variations of that.

The Robinson 44, while in the valley, could be used for other operations, he said, such as helping with wildlife surveys or habitat photography. He has worked on aerial pipeline and power-line inspections with Sublette County Weed and Pest District, and envisions the chopper being useful for monitoring conservation easements, he said.

Im trying to figure out a way [to] make this a community asset, Chambers said.

Chambers said Airport Executive Director Jim Elwood told him to engage community members about his plan. Since then hes talked to two Jackson Town Council members, the owners of a remote guest ranch, Bridger-Teton officials, National Elk Refuge personnel and national park representatives, Chambers said.

Chambers engagements didnt produce a bushel of full-throated endorsements, according to his accounts of the meetings. Bridger-Teton officials said Chambers didnt need permission unless he was going to land on the forest which he is not he said. Over Forest Service wilderness areas, where Chambers said he does not intend to fly, aircraft are supposed to stay at least 2,000 feet above the ground.

Asked if he was disappointed in Grand Teton National Parks response, Chambers said very much so, But, he said, they have a resource to protect. Thats their job.

The National Park Service mandate is to conserve the scenery, natural and historic objects and wildlife and to provide for public enjoyment while leaving resources unimpaired for future generations.The agency considers sound intrusion as it seeks to fulfill that mission. In Grand Teton, a 1983 agreement allowing the Jackson Hole Airport to operate inside park boundaries has led to significant impacts from noise and airplane traffic, Noojibails letter states.

[M]ore than 28,000 operations (takeoff or landing) occur annually at the airport and result in well-documented impacts on the parks natural soundscape and other resources and values, the letter reads.

Because the airport receives FAA funding, laws prevent it from imposing many restrictions. Noojibail referenced the difficult position that puts the park and airport in.

Under current federal law, there is very little, if any, opportunity to impose additional noise or access restrictions on the use of the airport, he wrote. What authority Grand Teton does have to limit noise is restricted to flights inside the park and within a half mile of its borders, he wrote.

Flying over the park before landing or after taking off from Jackson Hole Airport are activities that are generally exempt from protective laws like the National Park Air Traffic Management Act of 2000. Because Chambers plan is to fly over the park only while leaving or arriving at the airport, the air traffic act likely wouldnt apply to him.

Finally, the acting superintendent pointed to safety worries and potential conflicts with fire or search-and-rescue operations.

Missions occur almost every day during the summer operating season on both an emergency and nonemergency basis, including highly complex mountain rescue and short haul operations in the Teton Range and surrounding areas, the letter reads. The addition of commercial air tours into the airspace could compromise airspace safety.

Officials cant stop him from using the airport, Chambers said.

They cant keep aircraft out of there, he told WyoFile. They do have a duty to allow commercial operations out of there. I think there is a duty there they have to perform.

He said he believes he could take off from another airport say at Pinedale pick up passengers in Jackson and take them on a scenic ride. I can do that all day long at the Jackson Hole Airport, he said.

Jackson Hole Airport Executive Director Jim Elwood confirmed Chambers assessment. He is correct, Elwood told WyoFile. He could fly from another location to the Jackson Hole Airport.

Also, the airport cant discriminate against any type of aircraft or circumstance of use, Elwood said. While a Town of Jackson ordinance requires a permit for operations based at the airport, the airport board cannot deny one as long as he meets requirements in the permit.

Those would likely include rules to avoid noise-sensitive areas of the park and specifications that restrict flights over park land to landing and take-of routes, Elwood said. A permit, however, doesnt assure a place to operate, at the heavily used strip and apron, he said.

The airport has not received an official request for a permit from Chambers.

Meantime the pilot said he wants to work with community members as recommended by Elwood and Noojibail. Im not trying to cram it down anybodys throat, Chambers said of his plan. Id like to proceed with Jackson Hole Airport Board for this permit.

The non-tenant permit would give me legitimacy, Chambers said. I want their blessing, he said of the airport board.

Because of high demand and limited space, theres not a lot of room at the airport to park a helicopter or even to land and take off. The airport aprons are usually crowded with private jets and airplanes, and many private users cannot rent hangar or apron space.

They cant guarantee me space out on the apron for me to operate from, Chambers said. But things could change, he said, and some day there may be an opportunity to park or even hangar a helicopter there.

Some conservationists are disturbed by Chambers plan. The National Parks Conservation Association opposes the permitting of helicopter air tours from the Jackson Hole Airport within Grand Teton National Park, Sharon Mader, the groups senior program manager in the Northern Rockies, wrote in an email.

Whether or not simply taking off and landing within the park, the impact is the same bringing disruptive noise to the tranquility of Grand Teton and surrounding public lands and residential neighborhoods, her email stated.

Another Jackson Town Council member, Jim Stanford, called Chambers last week and said in no uncertain terms he opposed the scenic flight plan, Chambers said.

Stanford said he told Chambers his plan was a lousy idea, the town councilman told WyoFile. It went against all of our community values and I pledged to do everything within my authority to deny his proposal.

Chambers agreed helicopters attract enmity. People dont like helicopters, he said.

It will be an impact, Chambers acknowledges of the flights.. They make a different noise than airplanes. Noise sensitivity is a thing up there.

Chambers said hes not afraid of controversy, but Im certainly not looking for it.

Jackson Hole successfully deterred a similar plan for helicopter tours 18 years ago. In response to that proposal, The Town of Jackson in 2001 ultimately passed a resolution in favor of a temporary ban on helicopter scenic tours in all of Teton County.

The proposed tours may disturb the peace and quiet of noise sensitive areas [and] may disturb and distress wildlife, the resolution reads.

Officials and a consortium of conservation groups sought a review of environmental, safety and economic impacts. U.S. Sens. Mike Enzi and Craig Thomas supported an FAA review and Gov. Jim Geringer also was on board, according to the resolution.

The uproar was loud and unanimous Heli-No! Stanford said, quoting a popular bumper sticker of the time. The writing was on the wall. Potential operators were dissuaded.

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Heli-tours face headwind from Grand Teton National Park - Wyoming Tribune

Eni and Sasol are stopped in their tracks by appeals against offshore gas and oil exploration for now

Governments ambitious, potentially lucrative and controversial plan to allow deep-sea exploration drilling for oil and gas off the KwaZulu-Natal coast will most likely be further delayed as 47 interested and affected parties this week filed appeals against the process.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe told City Press that the approach taken by those appealing the process to obstruct each and every development was very selfish.

They are not thinking about the country, they are thinking about [their] narrow interests.

Nevertheless, the appeals process had to go ahead, he said, and he was still banking on game changing gas reserves being found.

Given South Africas stalled economic growth and high unemployment rate, government views the project as a way to create jobs, plump up state coffers, boost growth, stabilise hydrocarbon prices and decrease South Africas reliance on imported resources.

I am also hoping, wishing and praying that oil will be found so we dont have to go around begging everywhere in the world, said Mantashe.

Currently, Sasol pipes gas to South Africa from its Pande and Temane gas fields in southern Mozambique, but South Africa is intent on establishing a significant gas sector of its own to secure a stable, cheaper and cleaner energy mix.

Crude oil is South Africas largest import, making the country vulnerable to global events that affect oil prices and have a knock-on effect on the local economy.

If we get enough gas, we can save these coal power stations that we all dont want and change them into gas power stations, and keep the lights going and reduce emissions, Mantashe told City Press.

The importance of gas as an energy source is shown in this years updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), which outlines the countrys proposed energy mix. The IRP, which was released last week, looks to add a further 1 000MW in 2023 and 2 000MW by 2027 through gas.

According to the IRP, government has taken a policy position to support the development of gas infrastructure [and] convert all diesel-fired power plants to gas.

Searching for fossil fuels off the KZN coast

The 47 appeals have been collated into one 331-page document with which the interested and affected parties are challenging the authorisation by the department of energy and mineral resources to allow multinational energy corporation Eni and Sasol to drill up to six wells for exploration in two areas about 62km offshore from Richards Bay and Durban.

Among the appellants are a dive centre, academics, environmental nongovernmental organisations, a documentary production company, an architectural firm, marine biologists and an eThekwini ward committee. The appeals were lodged in terms of the National Environmental Management Act.

The areas of interest for the exploration drilling fall in what is known as Block ER236, with the northern area covering 1 717.50km2 and the southern area covering 2 905km2. Eni and Sasol hold the exploration rights.

According to the environmental impact assessment (EIA), Eni may drill four wells in the northern area and two wells in the southern area, but it may not drill all of them and further exploration will depend on the success or failure of the first drill. The drilling depth is 3 800m to 4 100m in the northern area and 5 100m in the south. Water depths in the northern area range from 1 500m to 2 100m. In the south, the range is between 2 600m and 3 000m. The drilling of one well is expected to take up to 71 days to complete.

The areas in question are of interest because of recent substantial gas discoveries in northern Mozambique.

The department of environmental affairs has up to 60 days to reach a decision that, according to environmentalists, could profoundly affect the lives of citizens, sea life and the ocean if the appeals against the drilling fail.

Environmental attorneys Adrian Pole and Kirsten Youens filed their appeal on behalf of Wildoceans (one of the programmes run by Wildtrust), which said it was disturbed by the quality of Enis EIA.

Wildoceans said it had the assessment reviewed by three experts, who concluded that deep-sea offshore oil exploration was a new frontier for the oil and gas industry and the frequency of wellhead blowouts was expected to be greater in deep, high-current locations.

Should a wellhead blowout occur, it would be nearly impossible for the relevant South African authorities to swiftly respond to such a catastrophe. The experts also said the risk assessment done by the EIA consultants significantly underrepresents the likely negative environmental impacts.

Furthermore, the experts described the multinationals oil spill modelling in the EIA as highly unrealistic, with the predicted outcomes presented as a worst-case scenario actually being closer to a best-case scenario.

Eni utilises individuals who are highly skilled and experienced in the oil and gas field, and says in its EIA that there are limited employment opportunities in the early stages of the project.

This outlook is anticipated to significantly change based on the success of the exploratory well. True potential is realised at the subsea field development stage of the lifecycle [analysis], the company said.

The South Durban Community Environmental Alliance is also against the projects. The groups appeal makes a detailed case against the proposed drilling, including the claim that Enis EIA contains a legally flawed assessment of risk and impacts of a catastrophic oil spill, and that the EIA report was fatally flawed because it failed to adequately assess socioeconomic impacts.

The economic impact of the proposed exploration on people who depend on the ocean for a living has not been considered, said the groups appeal submission.

READ: Sasol spends billions for gas

According to the activists, Enis own report recognised that an unplanned event such as a spill could result in a loss of access to marine-based income-generating activities. The EIA report is found wanting in a number of respects, and the risks associated with this lack of information are massive. Consequently, in the face of this incomplete information, the department of energy and mineral resources should not have granted environmental authorisation.

The appeal is almost certainly going to push back Enis anticipated plans to start the process next month, with a hope of finalising the appeal process before March.

According to governments Operation Phakisa website, South Africas coast and adjoining waters have possible resources of approximately 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent to 40 years of South African oil consumption.

We also have 11 billion oil equivalent barrels of natural gas, which is equal to 375 years of South African gas consumption. However, there is significant uncertainty about the extent of these resources.

A target has been set of drilling 30 exploration wells in 10 years, according to Operation Phakisa, which could, over the next 20 years, lead to the production of 370 000 barrels of oil and gas a day.

This is about 80% of current oil and gas imports. The result would be 130 000 jobs and a contribution of $2.2 billion (R32 billion) to the countrys GDP.

According to the department of environmental affairs, the responsibility of enforcing matters concerning pollution lies with the department of energy and mineral resources. In the event of an oil spill, environmental affairs spokesperson Albie Modise said there was an intergovernmental initiative under Operation Phakisa that would coordinate the action.

There is a basic incident management structure to respond to emergency incidents in a coordinated manner. Among other things, they must ensure effective use and deployment of available resources for all types of emergency incidents, said Modise.

He said that each appeal is decided on its own facts and merits.

Eni told City Press that wherever it operated, it undertook exploration activities according to international best practice standards and in accordance with local laws, within the parameters set out by competent authorities and agencies, and engages in dialogue with stakeholders following locally determined norms, as well as recognised best practices

.

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State plan to allow drilling off KZN coast to be further delayed as activists fight back - News24

It is difficult to think of a country more recently mired by tragedy than Sudan. As a result of the wars which have ravaged the country since the early 1990s, the split into two as well as (or rather encouraged by) the rule of the former leader Omar al-Bashir, the diaspora of Sudan who left as refugees contextualize that story in our home countries. It is a story of loss, and deep sadness, but in light of the revolution this year we have the opportunity to collectively put our faith in a new Sudan. We must.

After an eight-month period of civil disobedience, mass protest, the overthrow of al-Bashir and awful overreaction by the transitional military council, in August 2019 a 39-month phase of transition was entered in which Sudan would move forward for a hopefully thriving democracy. It is very early days, but there are positive early signs. As members of the international community, it is incumbent upon us to support the people of Sudan and their putative democracy.

What can be done?

The immediate focus must be finding a way to lift sanctions on Sudan which have been in place since the early 90s. The sanctions have been debilitating on the local economy despite the vast oil resources at their disposal. The effect on the country would be almost immediate as the lifting of sanctions would allow the country to borrow from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An approach to "wait and see" how the democratic transition might progress will continue to allow the financial pressure from those sanctions to hamstring the democratic transition. True democratic development must be hand in hand with economic development. The Sudanese people must have the ability to participate in the evolution after they orchestrated the revolution.

Industry that has largely been ignored must be rebooted to kick-start the economy. One such example is a topic I wrote on here that artisanal mining should be formalized and a proper and stable regulatory regime established for encouraging foreign direct investment in the minerals sector. Saudi Arabia, for one, has just this past week declared it a key foreign policy goal to help their neighbor lift sanctions and develop certain sectors including agriculture.

The African Union must quickly reinstate Sudan. Multilateral participation in the future of Sudan is critical to the future of its people. Criticism also of the side-lining of women in the formation process of the Sovereignty council is fair only two members of the newly formed council are women, which is difficult to reconcile with the adopted stance to embrace new standards of non-discrimination of women and also the outsize role especially that the Sudanese Women's Union played in the protests.

Why should we help?

The simple fact of the matter is that however you strip the analysis of the key players today in Sudan and their roles over the last 30 years, you're bound to find a cloud over most. The fog of wars perpetuated in this time should not be an excuse for atrocities committed. They should, however, be understood and approached with forgiveness. Immediately after graduating from law school I had the privilege of working at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the U.N. court for the prosecution of those involved in the perpetration of the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. Evidence tendered in those cases was horrifying, and after lengthy trials held in mostly western-staffed court rooms convictions were made against those involved. However, it was the parallel, Rwanda-based gacaca courts that inspired me most. These courts gave the victims the opportunity to directly confront their tormentors, those who had quite literally hacked their family members to death. Accounts of these courts are clear as one victim recently recounted: "... life must go on. Reconciliation is a process..."

"Revolution" such as that which occurred with the Arab Spring was largely ineffectual and in some cases such as Libya it has spurned an ongoing civil war. These precedents are clear, present and avoidable. Positive similarities do exist between the precedents and the current situation in Sudan. For one, the protests were largely youth driven and with significant involvement of women as mentioned above.

Like many other parts of Africa, we are witnessing a generational shift in leadership. Although the newly appointed Prime Minister is 63, the deputy chairman of the newly formed Sovereignty Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, is 45. Both have strong credentials against the deposed al-Bashir. Dagalo, the former head of the Rapid Support Forces, historically refused the orders to attack civilian populations in Darfur and chose instead to back this transitional military council and subsequently the Sovereignty Council. He is not without controversy, but the lesson of forgiveness is strong, and he had every possibility to go a different course.

The alternative to supporting the Sovereignty Council is unacceptable. The transitional council successfully put primacy on civilian leadership over military leadership (and the draft constitution reflects this), and militant groups were excluded from the process. Both of these factors are critical to the future success of the government in how it governs, and how it interacts with the foreign diplomatic and investment communities. Sudan, as history suggests, can easily descend into tribal and resource driven internal conflict. Too much blood has already been shed, and now we have the opportunity of a generation to ensure its success. We must.

* Managing director, Marlow Strategy, a London-based international advisory firm

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Trust in transition: The importance of placing faith in the new Sudan - Daily Sabah

Over 12 days at the start of October 2019 eight people were killed, more than 1,300 injured and nearly 1,200 arrested after demonstrations became violent in Ecuador. The demonstrations focused on reversing the ending of fuel subsidies, which had been brought in as part of austerity measures backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The protests only ended when president Lenn Moreno agreed to restore the subsidies.

In the summer of 2016, the northern region of Venezuela was gripped by violence. The unrest was a result of a steep fall in oil prices, which led to severe shortages in food and basic necessities, as imports became unaffordable. Many were killed as they queued for food.

When a man set himself on fire outside parliament in Cairo over the price of bread in 2011, ensuing protests led to the collapse of the government. And during riots in West Bengal, India, in 2007, 300 people were injured and two were shot dead by police as villagers raged against a corrupt food distribution system.

So what links these seemingly unconnected international tragedies? Everyone needs food, fuel and water to live. Its a fact of life. When these become scarce, it is inevitable that chaos follows rioting, protest, death. This link to increases in death rate can be direct through starvation or dehydration or indirect, if they lead to a rise in suicide or violent social unrest. If indirect, there is usually a trigger which links back to the physical scarcity, lack of access to or mismanagement of these vital natural resources.

This has, of course, always been the case. Scarce food, water or fuel has always led to death. And in modern times people have been lulled into a sense of security when it comes to scarcity at least over much of the world. It is often assumed that things are better than they were, that there are more resources and improved international protocols for sharing those resources when things get tough. But is this really true? In the age of climate change, perhaps not.

Climate change is only going to worsen the chaos attendant on resource shortage and, therefore, death rates. Increases in extreme weather will have adverse impacts on food production and water availability. Indeed, they already are. Meanwhile, fossil fuel depletion and unstable exporting regions will lead to huge increases in the cost of energy. Future food, fuel and water prices are at the very least going to be more volatile.

This will mean that an increasing part of the worlds population will find it more and more difficult to access fundamental resources. A vulnerable and usually poorer population will face real threats to life and livelihood. Stress will then become heightened if an individual or community experiences injustice or is living in an increasingly fragile state, with little expectation that things will change for the better. Hopelessness or anger may manifest, resulting in a need for answers and action.

To avert unnecessary deaths, mitigate social unrest and effectively manage natural assets, governments and states must devise policies and early intervention programmes in disaster risk management and peace-building. This isnt something that needs to happen in the future it needs to happen now.

This article is part of Conversation InsightsThe Insights team generates long-form journalism derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.

Of course, any attempt to do so needs to be based on historical examples of deaths caused by environmental stress. But the data on environmental conflict is rare and fragmented, making the study of conflict due to resource insecurity challenging. To fill this gap, we have launched an interactive map of such events over the last 12 years, illustrating that environmental stress is already causing chaos, globally. We define chaos as a combination of natural resource insecurity, social unrest and at least one death.

We sourced the data from news items, focusing on key search words, such as food protest or fuel crisis, to match events that include at least one reported death due to underlying food, fuel or water security issues. Out of a total collective chaos figure of 1,625 deaths over the period studied, 20% of deaths on the chaos map are attributed to suicide. The highest death toll was 425 in Sri Lanka, for a single event in August 2006 when Tamil rebels and the Sri Lankan army fought to control an irrigation sluice near Trincomalee.

This map is a pilot project and currently holds data on events up to 2017. But it something we aim to update and maintain in order to provide consistent open access data for the research community, as well as governments and NGOs. It could underpin their understanding of the trends that drive this type of chaos. The map shows that deaths linked to natural resource insecurity are already happening. We hope that by highlighting this we will increase the pressure on governments to develop food, water and energy strategies which take into account the likelihood of chaos and therefore build more resilience into the global and local economy.

The chaos events we tracked were not limited to sensational breaking news stories that make global headlines. We also covered less-publicised incidents, such as farmer suicides in Australia and the death of a woman during the Gilets Jaunes protests in France. These smaller incidents are as important to track as the major outbreaks of civil unrest as they highlight ongoing pressures in the food, fuel and water systems.

It is also likely that the data points we collected reveal an extremely conservative estimate of the reality of chaos around the world triggered by environmental insecurity. This is because a significant amount of under-reporting occurs due to delays between initial food, water or fuel access issues and eventual deaths through protest, or even censorship and a lack of media coverage (in English).

For example, while many commentators have since linked food insecurity to the early demonstrations that led to the Syria unrest, no individual news report explicitly links a particular death to those early demonstrations. Or at least no news report included both the food insecurity demonstrations and someones death in the same article. So there were no news reports in the database that we searched and this event is therefore not included in the map.

This highlights that episodes related to fuel or food insecurity which do not immediately involve death, can escalate, leading to other protests (potentially no longer directly linked to the underlying food or fuel insecurity). They can then cascade into much larger impacts, such as the Arab Spring or Syrian civil war, which of course led to thousands of deaths.

Alongside the data we collected, we have also developed a commentary series, selecting specific chaos events and gathering further information on the immediate context, how these events unfolded and the identification of reoccurring common themes. We hope that others will build on our work, diving into the particular issues associated with each recorded event to enhance our understanding of the compounding factors which lead to chaos and identify common conditions and triggers. This is crucial work to do in the context of the current climate crisis.

To demonstrate the forces at work, lets consider two examples of the chaos points on our map. Theres the case of West Bengal, which saw food riots linked to changes in food price subsidies in 2007, and the case of Venezuela, which saw a change in fuel prices for export lead to food shortages and then chaos. These two examples highlight how different local and international dynamics can still lead to similar chaotic situations.

During the September to October 2007 food protests in West Bengal, India, 300 people were injured and two were shot dead by police. At least three food distributors were captured and told to pay fines. Unable to raise the cash and in combination with public shaming, they killed themselves.

How did this happen? India has systems set up that are supposed to deal with resource insecurity and hold chaos at bay. For many years, the country operated a Public Distribution System (PDS) which supplies essential commodities at a subsidised price through an extensive network of fair-priced shops to both rural and urban households below the poverty level.

But a central government investigation in February 2007 found that most rural poor in northern and eastern India failed to receive regular rations of food. It was found that rural West Bengal had the highest number of households below the poverty line and faced seasonal starvation, with 28% of household livelihoods rooted in agricultural labour. Rising wheat prices also prompted households above the poverty level to demand wheat rations from the PDS. The survey further revealed that food distributors were hoarding grain and selling it for premium prices on the open market.

For example, on at least two occasions in Radhamohanpur, West Bengal, villagers caught local food dealers selling subsidised grain outside the village. They reported this to the ruling Communist Party of India Marxist (CPM). But villagers felt that the CPM was not only protecting the dealers (as no action was taken) but financially benefiting from party donations from dealers growing wealth.

It was only a matter of time before poor villagers reached breaking point and on September 16, 2007, a perfect storm gathered. The national survey had confirmed the belief held by millions of a corrupt system resulting in hunger and a widening gap between rich and poor.

They also believed the village leader and dealer were partners in ration theft and sought to formally present the allegations to the CPM leaders and put them under pressure to force them to take some action. A rickshaw cycle, microphone and a variety of slogans were organised by the villagers, who selected the most educated among them to communicate the slogans across four neighbouring villages where food dealers lived. The rickshaw gathered a crowd of 20 to confront the dealer but the CPM was sheltering them to avoid confrontation.

Up to 12 villagers entered a convention organised by the party leaders to voice their grievances. But they were told by the party there was no time to hear from them. A district council member urged the protesting villagers to do what they could as the dealer was inside the school. The crowd began pushing and shoving. When they saw that the crowd was turning against them, party members, who were standing behind a barricade, took out firewood and waved it aggressively at the crowd.

By this stage, the crowd had grown massively in size, with accounts ranging from between 1,000 and 5,000 mainly male villagers gathered outside the school.

When the police were called in the crowd turned violent. Stones and bricks were thrown at the party convention and at police officers. The Rapid Action Force (RAF) was deployed, firing blank rounds into the protesters who quickly dissipated. The RAF was forced to stay in the village for a month to keep the peace. But two deaths of protesters occurred and spill-over violence erupted in the neighbouring villages and towns of Murshidabad, Bankura and Birbhum.

Food chaos can also stem from fuel crises.

The northern region of Venezuela, particularly the state of Sucre and district capital Caracas, was gripped by violence and ten deaths in the summer of 2016, and many more deaths in subsequent years. The unrest was a result of a steep fall in Venezuelan oil prices, which led to severe shortages in food and basic necessities, as imports became unaffordable.

Since taking office in 2013, president Nicolas Maduro had continued to follow socialist economic policies. But years of mismanagement left the country more dependent on imports. As oil accounts for 95% of Venezuelas export revenue, the country took a major blow to its income when prices declined.

Following a decision to reduce imports of food and basic necessities to pay off national debts, a state of economic emergency was declared in early 2016. The resulting food shortages worsened and the ensuing anger led to unrest. The political opposition made efforts to call a referendum to oust president Maduro, but government councils stymied these efforts.

The armed forces were granted power to resolve social unrest and General Vladimir Padrino Lopez was promoted to minister of defence. The military took control of all food transportation and distribution, controlling prices and simulating production, in addition to guarding the ports, running Venezuelas largest bank and managing a television station.

Unable to produce or import enough food for a population of over 30m, the looting of grocery stores and food trucks began. Hyperinflation of 200% was recorded in mid-2016 with people spending an average of 35 hours per month in food queues. Frustration at having to queue resulted in more looting. In one such incident, an 80-year-old woman was crushed to death in a stampede. Stationary queues resulted in muggings and shootings, despite the presence of armed soldiers.

The collapsed healthcare system and homicide rates of 90 per 100,000 residents meant Venezuela rivalled El Salvador as the worlds deadliest place. Thousands of Venezuelans travelled to Colombia in search of basic food and medicine. Violent outbreaks and riots from mid-2015 to mid-2016 saw over 24 killed while queuing, 30 injured and over 400 arrested.

Read more: Venezuela's soaring murder rate has plunged the nation into a public health crisis

Climate change isnt going away any time soon. Nor are issues like fuel shortages and social deprivation. It is likely, then, that trends in food, water and energy systems including increases in demand will see more volatility in prices and inequality in access. This is particularly true for key regions that may potentially become unstable (such as the Middle East or North Africa).

The links across different resources (food, water and fuel systems), different levels (local and global) and different dimensions (environmental, political and social) are clear. These links provide the network that allows shocks to cascade through the global economic system. For example, a collapse in fuel output in one location can trigger sudden increases in international prices of food which in turn result in widespread impacts and, in cases where politically fragile settings exist, chaos.

Society can better prepare for a more volatile future, or even help to reduce the likely volatility, by being guided by past chaos events and understanding the risk of environmental conflict around the globe before it escalates.

Previous examples show us that governments should better map key bottle necks in food and energy supply chains so they can prepare to respond when a future global shock causes increases in prices or a reduction in availability. Nations and states, meanwhile, need to have a water strategy that can forecast demand as well as understand likely changes in supply due to climate change or degradation (chemical pollution or salt water intrusion).

The international community needs to understand which countries are more susceptible to food and fuel price shocks so that aid can be proactively deployed to reduce this exposure. Being better prepared for such events should reduce the chaos toll and increase the effectiveness and efficiency of aid spending.

There are ways that migration and civil disobedience can be avoided. Given the right help and support, a community may be able to diversify livelihoods and develop alternative and sustainable fuel, food and water options.

Certain themes shine through that could inform possible local interventions. For example, the West Bengal case highlights the risks involved in government corruption, poverty and subsidies. A long legacy of distrust based on land-grabbing, theft of food rations and lack of response to village concerns in reporting the dealers for selling rations, was in place. Governments need to build trust, give space for a communitys legitimate grievances to be heard, support community voices to exercise their legal right to protest, and hold anyone guilty of corruption accountable for their crimes.

In the case of Venezuela, government mismanagement, military presence, inflation, reliance on imports and long queues were all factors. Seeking high-level agreements to suspend debt payments while requesting additional loans or aid from the international community and securing essential supplies would have been critical to tackle the medium-term crisis. Short-term solutions, like identifying queuing alternatives such as drop-in days by alphabet based on name, may have helped reduce chaos. An earlier intervention in this case would focus on diversification of national revenue away from oil. In addition, supporting local food and water security initiatives would build local resilience and reduce the potential exposure of communities to international prices.

The earlier effective interventions can be made, the more likely it is that the risk of chaos can be averted. Interventions generally require decentralised, democratic, participatory and representative models, that address the essential needs of those in the lowest socioeconomic groups. In tandem, adaptable plans that include energy alternatives, such as renewables, resilient and diverse food systems and integrated water management, should operate locally.

Our chaos map brings together data that can help inform thinking around the factors that lead to chaos. With better information, we can then work with people across the board decision makers, academics, practitioners and local communities to achieve a less chaotic system and, hopefully, reduce future death tolls.

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Environmental stress is already causing death this chaos map shows where - The Conversation UK

Camote (sweet potato) chips, anyone? How about camote cue, or the simple boiled camote?

Did you know there is more tothe lowly sweet potato than your favorite merienda (snack) food?

Among other high-value crops,camote, and other root and tuber crops are now being considered for developmentby the Department of Agriculture (DA) to prop up food production, and boost thecountrys food security and resilience to climate-change effects like strongtyphoons, flash floods, landslides or even long-season of drought.

In his keynote message deliveredby Undersecretary Cheryl Marie Natividad-Caballero during the opening of thetwo-day Regional Congress: Root and Tuber Crops for Food Security and ClimateChange Resilience in Asia held at a hotel in Quezon City recently,Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar highlighted the importance of the root andtuber crops in boosting the countrys food security and climate-changeresilience.

The event served as avenue for root and tuber crops industry stakeholders to share industrydevelopments and approaches, and discuss strategies and initiatives to furtherprop up production capacities, and expand markets, in Asia.

It was organized by thePhilippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research andDevelopment of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-PCAARRD), and theInternational Potato Center (CIP) with funding support from InternationalFund for Agriculture Development (IFAD).

Dar said the DA is currentlyfaced with four major challengesthe African swine fever, fall army worm,and the falling prices of palay and copra.

These are the reasons why Darsaid since he assumed the top post as the countrys food czar, the DA hit theground running on how the agency is expected to deliver services for the Filipinopeople.

He added: Innovation,technology and entrepreneurship is key to competitiveness. It means expertizeon pest and disease management, postharvest, plant physiology and horticulture.

Dar said the conference came atan auspicious time, as the current DA leadership is pursuing a systematic andlong-term strategy in attracting private investments, developing markets andpromoting exports of raw and processed agricultural products, under what hecalls our New Thinking for Agriculture.

At the core of this NewThinking is Inclusive Market-Oriented Development [IMOD] as a strategy tomodernize the countrys agriculture sector, boost its resiliency againstclimatic stresses, create employment and income opportunities, and uplift theliving conditions of millions of smallholder farmers, he said.

He said as DA chief, the goalis to have a food secure Philippines with prosperous farmers and fisherfolk.

With regards to the countrysroot and tuber crops industry, he said, we recognize the huge contribution ofthe industry in our agricultural economy.

According to Dar, thecountrys production of top 2 tuberscassava and sweet potatototaled 3.25million metric tons (MMT) valued at P2.7 billion at current prices.

Cassava and sweet potatoesare grown in 312,000 hectares nationwide, he said.

He said the globalization ofmarkets created a slew of tremendous challenges and opportunities forPhilippine agriculture, in general, and the root and tuber crops industry, inparticular.

The challenge comes from theneed to ensure the quality of our products at competitive prices and producethem in economies of scale. But heightened competition also offers us theopportunity to strengthen the national agricultural support system to prosperin the context of our international trade agreements, he said.

He cited as an example theAsean economic integration and its accompanying free-trade agreement whichstarted in 2015, and gave rise to a large consumer base of 635 million peopleand combined trade amounting to nearly $3 trillion.

For the longest time, we havebeen lagging behind our Asean peers in terms of land productivity, cropdiversification and exports, he said.

Of the Big 5 ofAseanThailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippinesthe latter isthe only country with a negative trade balance because it imports more food andagri-based products than it exports.

DA, he said, recognizes its dutyto provide our small farmers, fishers and small-scale entrepreneurs thefighting chance in the global arena.

Through the Bureau of PlantIndustry and the High-Value Crops Development Program, which coordinate allefforts for this subsector, the DA is working to ensure the availability ofhigh-quality seeds and planting materials to support the agencys expansionprogram for priority root and tuber crops, especially in indigenous peoples(IPs) communities.

Dar said the DA will alsoestablish post-harvest facilities and encourage value addition, bring Filipinoroot and tuber crops farmers and entrepreneurs timely market information, andfacilitate all the linkages they require to make the industry profitable,productive and globally competitive.

We will continuously improvenational regulatory services, including our certification systems, and ourpest-risk analysis and food-safety services; and develop and promote betterproduction technologies throughout the archipelago, including the conduct ofFarmers Field School and Package of Technology (POT) and Training of Trainors(TOT) sessions, he explained.

Root and tuber crops, or RTCs, have been gaining recognition asnutrient-rich food crops, versatile raw materials for micro and smallenterprises, and agri-industry, such as food, feeds, starch, bioethanol, andinstrumental to enhance resilience to climate change, DOST-PCAARRD and CIPsaid.

RTCs grow in a wide range ofenvironments, require lower input than grains and have exhibited evidence ofaddressing vulnerability and risks related to increasingly recurrent extremeweather events, particularly in Asia and Pacific region.

The experts believe thecultivation of RTCs amid challengesincluding the low productivity ofsmallholder farmers, pests, diseases, limited utilization and consumption, slowadoption of improved production and processing technologies, and lack ofcompliance to industry standards offerfarmers in Asia and the Pacific anopportunity to not just put food on the table, such as during emergencysituations like natural calamities, but a better economic opportunity throughexports.

They said that one just haveto plant the right variety, and a unique and interesting value addition thatwill sell the by-product.

Diego Naziri, of the CIP, or ResearchCenter of Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research(CGIAR), said the two-day event aims to raise awareness on a wide range ofstakeholders, including researchers, government agencies, policy-makers,nongovernment organizations and private sectors, about the importance of rootand tuber crops for the livelihood of the people, and as a resilient crop toface the challenge of climate change.

One of the main outputs weexpect from this Congress is to have stronger collaboration and reciprocalknowledge about what we do on roots and tuber crops in terms of researchinitiatives, and establish collaborative undertakings in research andinnovations in root and tuber crops and put the result of the research in thehands of the farmers and the private sector, said Naziri, also a projectcoordinator at FoodSTART.

Of the 100 participants inthe event, most are from Asia, including a huge delegation from thePhilippines, and representatives from India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Tonga, Myanmarand Korea. There are also key representatives from Kenya, Colombia andthe United Kingdom.

According to Naziri, root and tubercrops, particularly sweet potato, are very resilient.

He said during the aftermathof Supertyphoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan), where farms weredestroyed, root and tuber crops, particularly sweet potato, survived thedevastation.

We have very good exampleswhere root and tuber crops became instrumental in recovery from shocks, hesaid, citing the case of Yolanda wherein the sweet potato was among thefew survivors among food crops.

All around the world, root andtuber crops remain the last crop standing after the devastating effect ofclimate change-induced weather events, he said.

This is important becausefarmers have access to food in times of food shortage. Another bigadvantage of this crop is they are short cycled, he added.

Sweet potato takes only 90 to100 days to reach maturity, he explained.

During the post-Yolandarehabilitation in the affected areas, he said sweet potato planting materialswere distributed to help farmers quickly recover.

Another so-called disastercrop, he said, is the cassava, known locally as kamoteng kahoyor balinghoy.

Even when cassava isdestroyed, the fact that the root crop remains underground makes it safe.

It is highly perishable afterharvest, lasting only two to three days after harvest, he said. However,despite its stem and leaves being destroyed, as long as the roots and the cropis in the ground, they can be kept there for a month and still be good forhuman consumption, he explained.

Root and tuber crops help feed theworld, says Naziri.

In terms of production, theroots and tuber crops produce more than 500 million tons of food globally andthey are the key staples for about 300 million people around the world, hesaid.

Over around 1 billionconsumers benefited from the works of CGIAR and CIP to improve the productivityof root and tuber crops, he said.

CGIAR and CIP conductsresearch in partnership with national-partners, primarily to develop newvarieties of root and tuber crops.

CGIAR and CIP have the largestgene bank of potatoes and sweet potatoes in the world and distribute thesevarieties to farmers around the world.

CIP has offices in 40countries, including Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Jerry Jing Pacturan, country program officer forAsia and the Pacific Region of IFAD, said root and tuber crops, particularlycamote, is the crop of many indigenous communities.

They are the crops of manypoor communities, such as in the upland areas of IPs in Southeast Asia.

Besides being very resilientthat they survive during typhoons, they are good sources of food and nutritionthan most food.

On top of these, root cropsare cheap, with camote costing around P50 to P90 per kilogram only, dependingon the variety or quality.

While it is a favorite snackfor many Filipinos, however, camote is not considered a staple food, unlikerice, or white corn in some parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

According to Pacturan, some specialvarieties of potato and sweet potato, are now being exported. Ube,a variety of sweet potato grown in the Philippines, he said, is in-demand forflavoring, such as in ice cream.

The root and tuber crops, hesaid, remains cheap but this is just a question of quality.

In fact, some root and tubercrops have the potential for export. Vietnam is exporting potato, hesaid.

The Philippines, according toPacturan, has the potential in carving its own niche in the global food marketgiven the opportunity in producing good variety of root and tuber crops, orthrough value-adding, producing by-products from these special root and tubercrops.

It is also a matter offinancing, he said.

IFAD is helping farmers inBenguet through the DA, in producing quality root crops.

In the project, dubbedCordillera Highland Agricultural Resource Management Program 2, funded by IFAD,the DA committed to provide the government counterpart of around P70 million.The project has been running for over 15 years now.

Another IFAD-funded project isthe Fisheries, Coastal Resources and Livelihood Project, which involvescoastal resource management and enterprise development.

Whether you are thinking of a merienda,or some food in times of disasters, the lowly camote might just save theday.

Read this article:

Lowly camote to save the day | AcachfumExcum - Business Mirror