Daily Archives: October 20, 2019

Is it fun to gamble on politics? You bet! Pixabay/Jan Vasek

Everybody has a political opinion and a prediction about who will win the 2020 election. But are you willing to put your money where your mouth is, as the old adage goes? Well, you can bet on political outcomes, and the industry has only become bigger in recent years. Not only can you gamble on who you think will win the presidential election, but such bets might also give us a clue about who could win, according to political scientists.

Gambling in America used to be heavily regulated. Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, betting on politics was a growing industry, just like it is in sports. But former NBA star Bill Bradley, who served three terms as a New Jersey senator from 1979 to 1997, led the charge to curtail gambling. Enter PAPSA, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. It was a federal ban on sports gambling that curtailed betting on sportsand politics. The bipartisan effort passed the Democratic-controlled Congress and was signed into law by President George H.W. Bush in 1992, going into effect in January of 1993. Only four states were exempt from this: Oregon, Montana, Delaware and, of course, Nevada, as all four already had some sort of statewide regulated gambling.

SEE ALSO: How to Combat the Sinister Role Deepfakes Will Play in the Election

New Jersey challenged PAPSA in the courts, and it went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which struck down the law and handed New Jersey, and gamblers, a big victory. Congress could still get involved in the future, states still need to pass laws enabling regulated gambling, and the Federal Wire Act stands in the way of online betting, but placing wagers on politics is back in business.

As Legal Betting Online points out, The irony of betting on the elections and events associated with those politicians attempting to outlaw gambling is not lost on the American people.

Believe it or not, such predictive markets answering yes or no questions about politicslike, Will Donald Trump be reelected? or Will Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard drop out next month?were allowed even before PAPSA was dumped, as regulators sort of ignored these measures. Why? For the valuable insight they provided,writes Sports Betting Dime. As traders buy and sell their shares, researchers get a better idea at what the collective mind is thinking about candidates and the events surrounding them. The idea is that people are buying shares based on what they truly believe is going to happen, not just what they want to happen. These markets provide real-time insight into political campaigns, and how different events impact them.

To find out more about the nuts and bolts of political bets, I spoke to oddsmaker Mike Pierce with online sportsbook TopBet.eu. I went to their site and asked some questions about how to place a wager and what the numbers mean, as I am a novice gambler.

For example, the site listsDonald Trump at -125. Does that mean hes going to win or lose? Since Trump is a -125 favorite, you would need to risk $125 to win $100 on him to be president in 2020, Pierce explained.

TopBet.eu also lists +200 for Elizabeth Warren, but that doesnt mean they think shes going to win. Conversely, if you [look at] Warren, who is +200 to be the next president, a $100 bet on her would win you $200 net profit.

So how do they determine these odds, who gets a minus (-) sign and who gets a positive (+) sign next to their names?

At the current moment, we win money if Trump is reelected as president and lose money if Warren is elected U.S. president, Pierce said. This is because 37% of cash on the 2020 U.S. presidential future is backing Warren who is a +200 underdog, while 29% of cash on the future is backing the -125 favorite Trump.

The literature from academia on political betting as a predictor is a lot more supportive than you may think. Given that a good theory can describe, explain and predict, why not an independent assessment via betting?

Prediction markets apparently originated in 1988, when the first Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the winner of the presidential election,writes Michael Abramowicz in his article The Politics of Prediction published in Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, an MIT Press Journal. The founds of the Iowa Electronic Markets wanted a vehicle that would better explain the workings of the financial markets, and their approach built on the work of experimental economists who had conducted experiments using simplified financial markets in the laboratory.

But betting on politics goes even further back to the days of post-Civil War politics. In the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf found that bets were a pretty good forecast of elections, even before the era of scientific surveys from 1868 to the 1940s. But an analysis of betting on the 2008 Democratic Party primary candidates by Emily West in the Journal of Politics showed a mixed result for determining the connection between belief in success and bets.

I visited RealClearPoliticsand saw that while Joe Biden is leading the national polls by a littleahead in New Hampshire and even Massachusetts (Warrens state), taking Nevada, winning South Carolina and Texas by a wide margin, losing only Iowahes trailing Warren in betting odds by a 33-point margin. I asked Pierce how that could be.

We feel that while Biden is the more well-known candidate, it appears Warren is starting to be the more popular candidate, he explained. She is starting to receive more money for fundraising compared to Biden. This is a big reason why we think she will be the Democratic nominee for president next year.

Im not so sure, but it is fascinating that the outcomes of betting could be so different from the polls. Well find out next year if using your head and following the surveys is the smart wager, or gambling on your heart and betting on who you want to win could be the best plan.

One final note: Before you lay down a single dollar on a bet, do your research and make sure youre casting your lot with a reputable site that has a good track record of paying off when you win.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgiaread his full biohere.

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Betting on Ballots: An Inside Look at the Business of Gambling on Elections - Observer

How many more allegations of connections between gambling and nefarious activities in Victoria need to come out before a royal commission into this exploitative and underhanded industry is finally called?

Within less than a week weve had animal cruelty charges around jiggers being used in horse racing and at Crown Casino even more allegations about money laundering, along with alleged procurement of drugs and sex workers and avoiding immigration procedures for high rollers.

Then on Thursday we have revelations that a man who was sanctioned by the United Nations for assisting a war criminal has been allowed to gamble millions at Crown.

Only a few weeks ago there were accusations from whistleblowers that the AFL was getting favourable treatment from the gambling regulator, the Victorian Commission for Gambling and Liquor Regulation (VCGLR), in its investigations of gambling by players.

The whistleblowers must be going blue in the face from making all these sordid allegations, yet the Victorian government continues to fail to take any real action against the gambling industry.

Couple all this with how influential the Australian Hotels Association (AHA) can be when it comes to elections; the AHA imposed a special one-off levy on pub poker machines to help bankroll donations of at least $500,000 to Labor and about $300,000 to the Coalition parties in the Victorian election last year. It also funded independents who preferenced the major parties, for a total of almost $1 million in donations.

These payments went to denying the Greens the balance of power in Victoria as the industry feared the partys strong anti-poker machines policies, including the introduction of $1 maximum bets. Some would argue that was $1m well-spent by the AHA in protecting its poker machine interests.

So thats Crown Casino knees-deep in sordid accusations of illegality; a Melbourne Cup-winning trainer allegedly involved in cruel, banned practices; alleged sports gambling messes within the AFL; and poker machines all tied up in controversy and politics. Yet the Victorian government remains effectively silent about gambling in Victoria. Why is that? A royal commission is the only way to get a proper answer to that question.

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The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, hasnt been shy about instigating royal commissions hes to be applauded for the royal commissions into family violence and mental health. But something critical was missing in the terms of reference for both those royal commissions: gambling harm.

There is a real thread running here. Gambling harm can be a factor in family violence, and there are established links between gambling harm and mental ill-health. In fact, gambling harm is estimated to account for 22% of the costs to our mental health system.

With gambling inextricably linked to two royal commissions already under way or completed in Victoria, why is it not being addressed with the same level of scrutiny?

Daniel Andrews is proud of his progressive agenda, yet he seems no different to Jeff Kennett in his laissez faire approach to the gambling industry, and Crown Casino in particular.

Its telling that we are not hearing much from either the Labor or Liberal parties on these alleged instances of the gambling industry flouting regulations and seeking influence. Both parties have strong ties to the gambling industry; both take political donations from the industry; both have former insiders working in the industry now, including former ministers and advisers. Daniel Andrewss own former chief of staff went to work for Crown Casino.

Its funny that when the ALP were in opposition in Victoria they cheered me on for taking on Jeff Kennett over Crown Casino and the fact it is three times bigger than the largest casino in Las Vegas. Yet when they regained power they hosted a fundraiser at Crown.

There are undoubtedly some very tangled webs between both Labor and Coalition governments, Crown Casino, and the broader gambling industry that need to be unwoven as a priority. Both major parties have too much skin in the game to be trusted to have the interests of the community at heart ahead of furthering their own political interests.

If Daniel Andrews doesnt have the strength to take the gambling industry on at a state level, perhaps it is time prime minister Scott Morrison stood up and had a national royal commission into gambling?

There are enough instances of the gambling industry having captured power around Australia to make a national royal commission worthwhile, let alone the devastating harm the industry wreaks as it fleeces Australians of $24bn per year. That $24bn in losses is 2.5 times what we spend on Newstart annually. Imagine untangling the gambling industrys power and getting some of those billions back into our economy to be spent on goods and services instead. How good would that be, Scomo?

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How much more gambling harm can we put up with? We need a royal commission - The Guardian

Man reading newspaper(Photo: Image provided)

On Oct. 21, 1805, a British fleet commanded by Admiral Horatio Nelson defeated a French and Spanish fleet in the Battle of Trafalgar. Nelson, killed in the battle, was shipped home in a vat of liquor to preserve his body.

On Oct. 21, 1879, Thomas Edison invented a workable electric light at his laboratory in Menlo Park, New Jersey.

On Oct. 21, 1917, American soldiers first saw action in World War I on the front lines in France.

On Oct. 21,1967, tens of thousands of Vietnam War protesters marched in Washington, D.C.

On Oct. 21. 2002, a car packed with explosives blew up next to a bus in northern Israel during rush hour; 14 people were killed in addition to two suicide attackers.

On Oct. 21, 2003, invoking a hastily-passed law, Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a feeding tube reinserted into Terry Schiavo, a brain-damaged woman at the center of a bitter right-to-die battle.

MORE OUT OF OUR PAST:Push for women's rights in Indiana started in Dublin in 1851

The week of Oct. 21, 1877, the following news was reported locally:

NAUGHTY If that party who boards at the Union House when disrobing for the night, would not stand where the reflections can be seen on the window curtain from the alley, there would not be a congregation there for her.

The Oct. 21, 1877, Richmond Independent noted a strange occurrence on Fort Wayne Avenue.(Photo: Image provided)

IN JAIL The recent attempted abduction of Mr. Abijah Moffits adopted son, Johnnie, under the impression that he was Charlie Ross, has been so fully ventilated there is no need for us to say much about it, but we will. The woman is undoubtedly crazed and her son is little better. The recovery of the boy attracted all the detective talent in the world and the abductors were captured in a twinkling. How a person cant tell Abijahs Johnnie from Charlie, we dont know.The Eds.

BILLS STORY Pious Bill made a short temperance speech at the M.E. church Thursday evening. Bill is earnest in the cause and makes right good doxology, but when doctrinal theologies merge, the Methodist encampment colored-folks lets whoop song went up, and it was too lively for many of the staid Quakers in attendance, who briskly fled.

HATS OFF Harve Lockwood is still wearing his ugly straw hat and wont quit. It aint right, Harve. Buy a cap and cover that ugly headgear! No self-respecting mule would wear a hat like that! The Eds.

WOE Charley Shively swears emphatically he will not buy his whisky where they refuse him peanuts free gratis. This will be a fatal blow to our whisky dealers.

The Evening Item Oct. 20, 1877,(Photo: Image provided)

CANAL TOWN Cambridge is quiet as usual but yesterday showed some stir. The marshal was busying taking in soiled doves, not the kind that fly wing-spread but the kind that sprawl limb-spread, for low sorts. One Mrs. Eller and two daughters, charged.

CARD SHARP There is blood on the moon and Wah! in the air up on North Seventh Street. A citizen of that aristocratic place talked in his sleep last eventide. Among other things, his wife who was awake, heard him say, Fifty cents on the tray, I copper the ace, and deuces aint wild! No jokers! The next morning the wife asked him to explain, and he told her he had been studying to increase his lightning-fast mathematical calculations, and was merely elucidating intricately complicated equations in sequence. - If she finds out what he was really intricately elucidating there wont be much calculating, nor poker wage sequencing, for all the trouble hell be dipped in. The Eds.

GREENVILLES CUSSEDNESS Addison Larimers notorious gambling room at Greenville is vacant at present since the arrest of Reynolds, the notorious cheat, has transpired. It is hoped that the report is true, for Greenville can show more whisky-shops, more gamblers and more thieves proportionate to population than any town in Ohio. The good people there are advised to take out an insurance policy or they will soon become a young Chicago.

MORE GREENVILLE CUSSEDNESS Ed Potter, (Cross-eye) formerly of Richmond, was arrested by Sheriff Hall. Addison Larimer (Hair-lip) was arrested also. After Cross-eye and Hair-lip got their bond fixed, they concluded to get on a drunk and visited various saloons during the evening, oathing vengeance on the grand jury that tries them. Hair-lip in fact became so disorderly that Marshall Hamilton was about to take him in when of a sudden Hair-lip become penitent and begged like a pup, Mr. Hamilton, let me go; I wouldnt be locked up for anything in the world! I wanna go home; I wanna see my wife and babes! The boose being so full of shamrock bruisers, the Marshall mediated that Hair-lip should put up ten dollars to insure an appearance in court Monday morning and let him go. Hair-lip gave the money and departured unsteadily. Cross-eye they said, had by then run like a quarter-horse when they arrested Hair-lip and, some say, is running still.

SHOE FLY Ike Hopper the old shoemaker has moved his shoe shop to Esquire Coats law office at the courthouse. When fresh legalities is discussed in that room, it will be pleasant for Ike to sit on his bench and make shoes, at the same time listening to the beautiful nasal twangs of Harmon Clark, as he expounds jurisprudence to a set of jurymen, who have, in the past, gone sound to sleep. Ike avers he wont go to sleep, as he likes lawyer talk more than his wifes haranguing, and can take it.

BUCKS PLUCK Buck says he will put a sore head on Butcher if he dont bring him that two dollars he owes pretty soon. The Eds.

FOR CLARITYS SAKE Dom Pedor, the Centerville correspondent of the Palladium, reported the bridge near Lymans well was broke down Sunday morning by some cattle the Jarrett boys was driving in; about eighteen, which they shipped to Buffalo. All of this is true except it wasnt Sunday but Saturday morning; and there wasnt about eighteen critters, but over forty, and they didnt ship them to Buffalo, but to Philadelphia. They was cattle though; in that he was correct.

Contact columnist Steve Martin atstephenmonroemartin@gmail.com.

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Out of Our Past: Gambling and 'cussedness' featured in 1877 news - Palladium-Item

By Dan Karpiel

The Surveyor

Coloradoballot measure Proposition DD, if approved, would legalize sports gambling inColorado and impose a 10% tax on profits earned from businesses that conductsports betting operations. The tax levied under the terms of Prop DD would notbe levied on individuals who win a wager but rather on the casinos and onlinegambling businesses contracted by casinos who earn profits on sports gambling.Since the measure seeks to impose a new tax, it requires voter approval underthe Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) law.

Asa result of a 2018 ruling by the United States Supreme Court in the case Murphyv. NCAA, the federal prohibition on sports gambling under the Professional andAmateur Sports Protection Act was declared unconstitutional via the anti-commandeeringdoctrine, which states the federal government, lacks the power directlyto compel the States to require or prohibit acts which Congress itself mayrequire or prohibit. Since 2018, eight states have already passed lawslegalizing sports gambling and several others are on track to do likewise.

Ifapproved by voters, DD would permit Coloradans over the age of 21 to placewagers on the outcome of collegiate, professional and Olympic sporting eventsin-person at casinos in Black Hawk, Central City and Cripple Creek and onlineby casino-contracted internet gambling businesses.

Thesecond portion of the measure would be to impose a 10% tax on casino profitsearned from sports betting operations and use the funds generated for threepurposes (with percentages of revenue earned). One, create and fund the WaterImplementation Cash Fund (69.5%); two, cover the costs of administration andregulation of sports gambling (27.22%); and three, provide additional fundingto the state Office of Behavioral Health to raise awareness and providetreatment for gambling addiction (1.35%). At least $534,000 annually, or 5.53%,whichever is greater, will go into a hold harmless fund where entities that experiencea financial loss due to sports gambling may apply for funds to recover thoselosses.

Thelargest portion of the tax revenue generated, which is estimated to be around$10 million in fiscal year 2020-21 and increase to $13.5 to $15.2 million in2021-22, would go toward water projects in the state. Per the language of themeasure, the funds here would be used to provide grants to governmental andprivate entities for water storage and supply projects, conservation, land use,and drought-planning projects, water education, outreach, and innovationprojects, agricultural water efficiency projects, and environmental andrecreation projects.

PropositionDD enjoys broad bipartisan support. The measure was co-sponsored in theColorado General Assembly by Representatives Alec Garnett (D) and PatrickNeville (R) and Senators John Cooke (R) and Kerry Donovan (D). A wide anddiverse array of organizations also support the measure, including the ColoradoChamber of Commerce, the Colorado Cattlemans Association, the Colorado FarmBureau, the Environmental Defense Fund, ProgressNow Colorado and the BellPolicy Center.

Oneargument in favor of legalizing sports gambling is doing so would help eradicatethe black market for sports gambling, e.g. the private bookmakers, or bookies,who can have ties to various organized crime groups and engage in other illegalactivities.

Asstate Representative Alec Garnett, a House Democrat and co-sponsor of the ballotmeasure said, Coloradans should have the option of betting on the Nuggetsor the Broncos. This new funding will go toward protecting our precious waterand we believe this is something everyone can support. I also hope this measurewill help stamp out black market sports betting and thank my colleagues on bothsides of the aisle for their support.

Anotherargument in favor of the measure states that with Colorados populationexpected to double by the year 2060, the state will not have an adequate watersupply at current usage rates to sustain the same quality of life. The fundsgenerated from this tax, which is imposed on businesses who provide an at-willactivity, will help ensure there is enough water for future needs while helpingpreserve and protect Colorados natural environment.

Anargument against voting for DD is people can become addicted to gambling,sports wagering included, and there exists no prohibition on how much a personcan lose placing bets. Prop DD will make it easier for someone with a gamblingproblem to wager, and potentially lose, a great deal of money with just a fewclicks on their smartphone or computer.

Theorganizations Coloradans for Climate Justice and Save the Colorado areregistered in opposition to measure and argue the measure will fund,river-destroying dams supported by the Colorado Water Plan. GaryWockner, director of Save the Colorado and Coloradans for Climate Justice,said, This Gambling For Dams bill is a climate-denying,river-destroying scheme pure and simple. To think that Colorado can dam its wayout of climate change is a gamble of the highest stakes.

Ayes vote on Proposition DD is a vote in favor of legalizing sports betting inColorado and imposing a 10% tax on casino profits earned from those wagers anddesignates the funds be used primarily to fund water supply projects in thestate.

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Proposition DD aims to legalize and tax sports gambling in Colorado | - BerthoudSurveyor.com

The 10 scratchcards were pulled in the summer amid player protection considerations (Picture: Rex Features)

Camelot will no longer sell 10 scratchcards over fears they could fuel gambling addictions in some players.

Lotto bosses have told shops to withdraw them, citing player protection considerations.

However, winning jackpots already sold, including two 4 million Black top prizes and a 2 million Diamond 7 prizes, will still be honoured, The Sun reported.

A Camelot spokesperson said: Our decision to stop selling 10 scratchcards back in the summer was based on player protection considerations.

As part of the ongoing work we carry out to ensure all of our players can play in a healthy and enjoyable way, we became aware that, unlike any of our other scratchcards, these particular games over-indexed among problem gamblers.

So, in keeping with that commitment, we decided to stop selling these particular scratchcards and instructed our retailers to remove all tickets from sale.

We believe this was the right thing to do to help protect the very small minority of players concerned.

The spokesperson said Camelot puts the risk of players at risk from addiction at less than one per cent, the i reported.

A Gambling Commission spokesman added: Based on the new evidence, the commission considered that the association of problem gambling with the 10 scratchcard was such that it was not consistent with it being a legitimate leisure activity.

After careful consideration of new evidence both the Commission and the Licensee agreed that all scratchcards at the 10 price point should be removed from sale until we are satisfied that the risks posed to our duties are mitigated.

Whilst there is likely to be some negative impact on good causes, the Commission is satisfied that this decision reflects the primacy of our first two duties and was necessary and proportionate.

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Camelot pulls 10 scratchcards over fears they fuel gambling addiction - Metro.co.uk

Tronand Ethereum cryptocurrency casino Play Royal has secured a content supplierdeal with Betsoft, an award-winning casino games maker.

Casino games developer Betsoft has signed a pivotal partnership with Play Royal, an Ethereum-powered crypto casino, becoming one of the few mainstream game makers to expand into blockchain-based gambling.

Betsoft is not entirely unfamiliar with the area, as it has previously signed a partnership with other companies in the crypto iGaming sector.

Similarly,the company notched up keystone partnerships with Casino Gran Madrid, Wanabetand WeAreCasino.

Meanwhile, Play Royal is powered by both Ethereum and Tron, a popular cryptocurrency used on other crypto gaming projects. Bitcasino.io added Tron earlier in October. Before that, another gaming portal, TRONUP, launched a 1,000,000 TRX promotion.

Commentingon the occasion, Betsoft Gamings Francesca Raniolo, Sales Executive forthe company, had this to say:

We are very excited to announce our partnership with Play Royal, one of the worlds leading crypto casinos.

We pride ourselves on developing innovative, exciting cinematic content that appeals to a wide range of player types, and this is what attracted Play Royal to our games. Betsoft Gaming looks forward to a great partnership.

Similarly,Play Royal CEO Tony Campbell also welcomed the addition of Betsoft, as abona-fide provider of casino solutions: We are extremely impressed with thequality of Betsofts innovative games. From the moment we saw titles such asMax Quest: Wrath of Ra, we knew that Betsoft backed up its reputation fordeveloping fresh and exciting content, and we cant wait to bring their gamesto our customers.

Betsoft definitely has reasons to feel proud of recent developments. The company was nominated for the EGR B2B awards in Innovation and it secured first-place in RNG Casino Software Category.

Similarly, the company received praise for its work on one of the latest additions to its portfolio, Max Quest: Wrath of Ra. The game stands by virtue of its multi-player shootem up experience bringing the casino gaming experience closer to an authentic video game.

The company was specifically recognized as RNG Supplier of the Year, one of the highest distinctions in iGaming, which consolidates the position of the developer as a flagship company in the sector.

Betsofthas had a god October, with the company releasing Cashens Arrival, a Chinese-themedgame. Based on the developers 3D cinematographic technology, Cashens Arrivaloffers an entirely new experience, akin to the ward winning Max Quest title.

Playerscould multiply their bet up to 35,000x times and there is an additional 3xmultiplier that comes hand in hand with the free spins. In addition, playerscan benefit from the scatter symbol there to boost the overall payouts.

The year is not yet out and 2019 has more products lined up for release later in November and December.

Image credit: Betsoft, Play Royal

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Betsoft to Supply Tron and Ethereum Casino Play Royal - GamblingNews.com

With Diwali around the corner, the police are geared up to bust the gambling dens, especially those which are organised by traders at their establishments or other safe places in the steel city.

The action was planned as gambling is organised on and before Diwali in several places in the city every year. Sleuths from the intelligence department have been instructed to collect information about places where organised gambling has been continuing for the last couple of years.

Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Anoop Birtharay said that they would start raiding the places where gambing is organised.

"We have decided to conduct raids at the public places like bus-stand, parks, empty houses or under-construction houses. We will arrest those caught in the act and will prosecute them under Section 13 of the gambling act," said Birtharay. Another official said those who organise the gambling will be prosecuted under 3/4 of the Gambling Act and will get bail from the court only.

He stated that the officers in-charge of the police stations have been instructed to check gambling in their respective areas.

Sources said gambling is organised in large scale at a number of place in Jugsalai during every Diwali. At the gambling dens in Jugsalai selected traders are allowed to participate in the act in which lakhs of rupees are put on stack.

Other places where gambling is organised include marketplaces in Sakchi, Bistupur, Kadma, Sonari and Golmuri. The gambling is also held at some houses in the residential locality of Baradwari, Sonari and Sakchi.

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Police gear up to bust gambling dens this Diwali - Daily Pioneer