Daily Archives: September 18, 2019

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In recent years, both the US and Europe have faced what seems like a never-ending flood of refugees; the US from Mexico and Latin America, and Europe from North Africa and the Middle East. The affected countries trying to absorb this flood of refugees have considered this uncontrolled influx something approaching national emergencies.

What to do with all these people? Where to house them? How to feed them? How to contain the inevitable backlash from their own citizens and the resulting growth in right-wing nationalism?

While those problems remain largely unsolved, a bigger problem looms just over the horizon: mass migration of climate refugees. This surge of climate refugees will dwarf current immigration problems. While today the US and southern Europe face a flood of refugees, most from dysfunctional countries or regional wars, the climate refugee problem will be a tsunami in comparison.

Enormous refugee populations, not numbering in the millions or the tens of millions, but in the hundreds of millions, could flee areas of the world where changing climate ravages already-marginal agriculture, whether because of flooding, drought, or rising temperatures.

Recently I spent a week reading research papers by scientists, world health organizations, and international bankers on this very subject. The bottom line: we aint seen nothing yet.

We are now witnessing the highest levels of movement on record. About 258 million people, or one in every 30, were living outside their country of birth in 2017. That is both a record high there were 173 million in 2000 and an alarmingly volatile figure: a 2003 projection anticipated that by 2050, there would be up to 230 million international migrants. The latest revised projection is that there will be 405 million international migrants by 2050. Guardian

While regional wars and poor governance have fueled most of our current migrations, climate-fueled migrations are just now beginning to ramp up. The countries of origin for the coming climate change refugee flows will be many of the usual suspects, researchers predict.

Climate change will transform more than 143 million people into climate migrants escaping crop failure, water scarcity, and sea-level rise, a new World Bank report concludes. Most of this population shift will take place in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. National Geographic

And, from the National Academy of Sciences:

This suggests that crop yieldinduced migration will be a significant issue in many areas of the world that are expected to experience a substantial reduction in yields as a result of climate change, including much of Africa, India, Bangladesh, Latin America, and Australia, among others our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming. National Academy of Sciences

Researchers at the University of California, San Diego, dug deeper, outlining the causes and effects of predicted climate change on mass population movements:

First, environmental problems may directly lead to emigration. Secondly, environmental stress may lead to resource conflicts, and these conflicts may produce refugees. Each type of migration may lead to conflict in receiving areas; however, they may not be equal in their effects global climate change has the potential to directly uproot people from their home communities. Research on this topic suggests several possible mechanisms through which people may be forced out of their current habitat:

Sea-level rise caused by a reduction in glacial coverage will lead to the flooding of coastal areas.

Desertification will cause people to migrate out of unproductive and water-scarce areas.

Greater variability in weather patterns will lead to dramatic climate events such as hurricanes, typhoons, and extreme cold which will disrupt human settlements.

Unpredictable rainfall will lead to periods of flooding and drought, making certain areas uninhabitable.

Warming oceans and ocean acidification endanger coral ecosystems and the artisanal, pelagic, and aquaculture fisheries upon which hundreds of millions of people depend for food. Meanwhile, lack of access to safe drinking water is a further major contributor to morbidity and mortality, particularly among children, in developing countries. Changes in rainfall and river flows jeopardize human health via impacts on agriculture, daily hydration, cooking, and domestic hygiene. Idean Salehyan

Besides land-based impacts, climate change is also warming ocean waters and raising sea levels worldwide. Researchers at the School of Public & Environmental Affairs took a close look at this trend and came to some startling conclusions:

Predicted effects of a one-meter rise in sea-level, assuming no adaptation measures are taken. In Asia, more than 117 million people are exposed to inundation, in Europe 13.5 million, in Africa 12 million, in Latin America 760 thousand, and in Pacific islands 300 thousand. Bangladesh may lose 21% of its land. Several islands in the Pacific may be completely submerged. Moreover, approximately one billion people live at sea level or a few meters above. Sixteen of the worlds nineteen largest cities (population above 10 million) are located on coastlines. The implications are daunting. Rafael Reuveny

Like coastal regions, agriculture zones will depopulate rapidly as a result of climate change.

Logically, regions whose livelihood depends on agriculture are more likely to experience the adverse effects of environmental degradation. People in these regions are therefore more likely than others to migrate when facing environmental problems. The shares of the labor force employed in agriculture in 2000 were 58% in Africa, 51% in Asia, 24% in Central America, 18% in Oceania, 14% in South America, 8.6% in Europe, and 6% in North America. In Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the agricultural employment shares were highest: 66% and 58.5%, respectively. Rafael Reuveny

For those still in doubt about how seriously a changing climate can affect large agricultural populations, they need only pick up a history of the American Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. Recent studies concluded that about 2.5 million left the Great Plains in the 1930s due to environmental degradation, inundating western states with climate refugees. The influx got so bad that the state of California actually closed its border to migrants from the affected areas (dubbing them Okies), who were simply fleeing their then worthless midwest farms, with many continuing north into Oregon and Washington.

Four families from the Dust Bowl in Texas in an overnight roadside camp near Calipatria, California, in March, 1937. Photo credit: ATTRIBUTION GOES HERE

The American Dust Bowl years offer just a hint of how fast mass populations react to devastating changes in their local climate. And thats exactly whats beginning to happen, not just on land, but at sea as well, on which billions of people depend for much of their diet.

Climate change is already inducing marine animals to migrate, and according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, its starting to make people move, too. They found, high temperatures, particularly during the spring and winter farming season, were the dominant driver of mass migration. Its not that it suddenly became too hot for people to live. But as temperature and weather patterns change, the previously productive ground may become uneconomical to work. High heat wipes out the farming economy, the researchers suggest, causing Pakistani men to pack up and leave for greener pasturesThe risk of a male, non-migrant moving out of the village is 11 times more likely when exposed to temperature values in the fourth quartile. Smithsonian

Such large and uncontrolled migrations bring with them a host of problems for the receiving nations as well, as weve seen already in both the US and Europe. A recent study by the National Institute of Health discovered:

Resettlement schemes (for migrants) typically lead to adverse social outcomes: landlessness, joblessness, homelessness, social marginalization, heightened food insecurity, loss of access to common property resources, and community disarticulation. Environmental Health Perspectives (NIH)

Current migration troubles in Southern European countries give us a preview of whats to come once the flood of climate migrants begin arriving, according to the environmental nonprofit NRDC:

In the European Union, where the stresses and strains associated with processing large numbers of migrants have already reached crisis proportions, experts predict that the annual stream of those seeking safety within its borders will triple by the end of the century due to climate-related migration. And a 2018 World Bank Group report estimates that the impacts of climate change in three of the worlds most densely populated developing regions sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could result in the displacement and internal migration of more than 140 million people before 2050. That many people on the move could easily lead to massive political and economic strife and significantly stall development in those regions. National Resources Defense Council

While the Trump administration and other climate change deniers continue to dispute and downplay the seriousness of this crisis, scientists, the vast majority of them, say the data doesnt lie.

The largest numbers of people that hydro-meteorological disasters affect are found in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which reflects the pattern of dependence on the environment for livelihood. All forecasts predict considerable global environmental degradation, including a rise in sea-level, inundation of coastal areas, more intense and frequent extreme weather events, changes in temperatures and precipitation, declining freshwater resources, and falling soil productivity. Rafael Reuveny

Finally, if youre not sufficiently alarmed, a recent review of climate change predictions has shown that, rather than overstating the crisis (as Trump and his kind like to allege), scientists have actually been underestimating both the size of impact and speed of climate change. According to Scientific American:

To develop a consistent picture of long-term trends, techniques had to be developed to compensate for the errors in the older (19th & 20th century) measurements and reconcile them with the newer ones Because the oceans cover three-fifths of the globe, this correction implies that previous estimates of overall global warming have been too low. Moreover, it was reported recently that in the one place where it was carefully measured, the underwater melting that is driving disintegration of ice sheets and glaciers is occurring far faster than predicted by theory as much as two orders of magnitude faster throwing current model projections of sea-level rise further in doubt. Scientific American

Why Climate Change Is So Hard to Tackle: Our Stubborn Energy System

Study Shows Were Hurtling Toward a Climate-Related Health Crisis

So, here we are now, with developing countries around the globe struggling, and largely failing, to handle the current flow of refugees seeking refuge from their poorly run, civil-war-ravaged countries. Meanwhile, a category 5 hurricane of climate change driven migration looms just over the horizon. A migration of epic proportions, in which possibly as many as a billion refugees will flood the borders of more fortunate nations. No immigration programs, no matter how well planned and run, could even begin to manage, much less survive, such an event.

If the governments of the planet continue their lackluster approach to countering the drivers of climate change, even this late in the game, then we can all expect our grandchildren to live very difficult lives. As pressures rise on migrant-receiving countries, they will inevitably militarize their borders. And from there it all goes downhill big time.

Sorry for such a gloomy report, but theres simply no more time left to sugarcoat this bitter pill. Its time to call climate deniers what they are; criminally negligent at best. And any person running for public office who continues to equivocate on this matter needs to be rejected out of hand, no matter how good they may be on other issues. Because folks, times up.

Keep it civilized, keep it relevant, keep it clear, keep it short. Please do not post links or promotional material. We reserve the right to edit and to delete comments where necessary.

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Climate Change Exodus: Is a Migration Catastrophe Inevitable? - WhoWhatWhy

Lila Fraser Erasmus is campaigning to become Tu Nedh-Wiilideh's next MLA.

Her platform is centred around families, unity, communities, and relationships. She advocates strongly that communities need to be allowed to make their own decisions because they know which solutions are needed.

She values land-based healing; sustainable economies; implementing treaty and Mtis rights; and building alliances between government, communities, Indigenous Peoples, and industry while infusing traditional knowledge into everything that is done.

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Her resume includes studies in political science, Native studies, and dispute resolution. In her professional life she has worked for government and Indigenous organizations, owned multiple businesses, and sat on numerous boards.

Listen to the full interview by downloading or streaming Cabin Radio's Lunchtime News podcast. Her interview air date is September 17.

More information: Lila Fraser Erasmus' campaign website

More interviews: Browse our 2019 NWT election coverage so far

This interview was recorded on September 10, 2019. The transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

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Sarah Pruys: Tell us why you decided to run.

Lila Fraser Erasmus: My name is Lila Fraser Erasmus. I was raised up in the Sahtu region. I was actually born in the Yukon, in Whitehorse. My mother is from Mayo, my First Nations is from Na-Cho Nyk Dun. But I was raised up in the Sahtu, I spent most of my time in the Northwest Territories so people know me as from here. My grandfather is from Fort Good Hope. My grandmother was born in Fort Reliance. And so I have strong ties here and I've lived in many different places in the Northwest Territories. I've lived in Fort Resolution, I've lived in Pine Point, I've even lived up in Taloyoak. I have a lot of strong ties to the smaller communities. And I feel very strongly that the smaller communities need to have a strong voice.

My father, the late Peter Fraser, he passed away in 2000 but was a very strong advocate for the smaller communities and a very strong voice. I was raised listening to that voice, I was raised listening to him talk about politics all the time. He was an MLA in the early 80s. And so when he was an MLA, we used to travel around to the assemblies with him in the Sahtu region and he was an MLA for the Great Bear Region. And so I was always around it, and I was always familiar with it, and familiar with the people and the issues, even though I didn't pay much attention as a child.

And so I've always been raised with a really strong sense of community and a really strong sense that the smaller communities have the the power to make the decisions for themselves. Many times in government, we have people making decisions for us that have never stepped foot in our communities and think they know what's best for us, and that I find very frustrating. I think that it's really important that the Indigenous communities, smaller communities, have a strong voice, and somebody that can stand up and say that we need change. We need to do it differently. And we need to start listening to the communities because they know what they want. They know what the solutions are if we just ask them.

You've started campaigning and you're going around talking to people in the communities. What kinds of things have you heard from them about what they would like to see in the next four years?

We have a lot of issues that we need dealt with. We hear it all over, we read it in the news: the social issues are huge; economic development; the land claims and settling the land claim self-government agreements are huge, we need to get those settled; the economy, we're getting at the tail end of the mines now and so we really need to start thinking about what we're going to do next.

And I really believe strongly that the communities are the ones that are going to come up with those solutions if we create these alliances and start working with the Indigenous governments and industry and government. Many times we've seen, in the past, we're dissecting Indigenous governments and dissecting our departments, and so they're not working together. And so we've seen that shift and we see a shift now where we're starting to work together now, which is great. That's really nice to see. And so we need to start moving more in this direction of working together and bringing the communities together so that we can find these solutions, because the communities know what they want. And the communities know what the solutions are, we just need to ask them.

And we need to respect their ties to the land, to the environment, and to their communities. We need to respect the cultural foundations that they stand on and stop trying to change that, stop trying to make them do things differently. As government, we just need to stop and start to make that space for Indigenous communities to make the change, and start to listen to the communities and start to shift our governments to think more in that way.

There's a lot that Indigenous communities have to offer and I think that we will all benefit from that. Indigenous and non-Indigenous people together will all benefit from the knowledge and from the traditions and from the way that we've done it before. I think that it's really important that we start to move towards that direction.

I've heard from a few people now that they would like to see a restructuring of the government or a shift in the mindset of the government. That's a big thing, to change how people think all across the territory. How do you propose we start that process? How do we get people to change the way things have been done for so many years?

We need to come out of our comfort zones. So many times it's just convenient for us to do it the same old way. And I think that that's wrong, we need to start moving away from this convenience. The language itself, our young people need to learn the language, we need to learn the language. My dad spoke different languages and there's 10 of us in the family, not one of us speak even one Indigenous language, which I think is crazy. I've seen Dad go into the communities and speak with people in the community. So he knew the language, but never taught us. And so now we hear about how important the language is, but it's convenient for us to fall back on the English language.

Even in the communities, we need to see more of that. We need to see more signage in the language. And I'll say this, the NWT Chamber of Commerce is having a forum in Yellowknife here for Tu Nedh-Wiilideh candidates. And I sent them an email and I asked them, "I'm curious why you're not having it in one of the communities." Because of my four communities Deninu K'ue,utselke, Dettah, and Ndilo two of them are very accessible to Yellowknife. And so it's easy enough if it's in Tu Nedh-Wiilideh riding. Why aren't we having it in one of these communities? Dettah and Ndilo are right here.

They said, logistically, it's easier for them to have it in Yellowknife. And so myself, I'm taking a stand and I'm choosing not to go. So I'm choosing not to attend the commerce forum. I will answer the questions for their website and for my website, but I'm choosing not to attend. Because the convenience of that, I don't agree with. I don't agree that, just because it's convenient for them, have it in Yellowknife, even though the riding is right here, 10 minutes away.

This is the thing about the convenience of it all: it's always convenient for us to fall back on the old ways and just the way that we've done it before. And I think we should start moving away from that and moving out of our comfort zones and and start to accommodate our communities, start to accommodate the Indigenous community, because it's the Indigenous communities that are the ones that are struggling.

They're the ones that are struggling with lack of graduation rates, with increased inmates in jails, with the child welfare. So we need to start moving our resources towards this sector of our society. And I think very strongly that once we start to do that, and once we start putting our resources there, and once we start valuing them, once they start feeling that the communities are valuing them, then absolutely we're all going to benefit from that. We're all going to benefit: that's going to decrease the health and social child welfare rates. Right now child welfare is at staggering rates, child welfare rates right now are higher than they were at the height of residential schools. That's crazy. Eighty-five percent of our children are not graduating at rates of the rest of Canada, and the majority of those are Indigenous children. And so why aren't we looking at alternative ways of educating?

I did some research on how Indigenous people learn, and how we understand, and how we interpret. And it's much different than Western society. But yet we still are trying to push this Western society education system at the Indigenous population, and it's not working. And we're not understanding why it's not working. And the reason it's not working is because we're not understanding the Indigenous population.

They understand, they interpret, they see a world that's different. They understand visually, they learn visually. They learn in a different ways. And there's tons of research out there, and people within the education system that understand this fundamentally. We need to start utilizing these people within the system, to start to make that shift for the rest of us that are not necessarily understanding it just yet.

What else is on your platform?

What I chose to focus on was families, unity, communities, and relationships.

When I talk about family, we're talking about land-based healing programs. Because personally, I think that every single community in the NWT should have a land-based healing camp outside of their community where they can go. Where the kids are away from Wi-Fi, where the kids are away from being plugged in, and where the Elders and the youth can come together and start to learn from each other. The youth are in a very different place today and the Elders come from a very, very different place. And so we need for them to understand each other, and we need for them to learn from each other. The youth need to understand what it was traditionally for us, and how can we use that today, moving forward?

And then we talk about community, and so looking at alliances with government agencies, different non-profits, so that we can build and create these solutions together. The communities need to come together and the communities need to benefit from these alliances. Alliances that respect the cultural ties, that respect where the Indigenous communities are coming from, are going to be really strong so that we can create those solutions together.

And then we talk about relationships, the treaties, and the ties to the land. The Dene and the Mtis have never given up their ties to the land, they have never given up their right to hunt, fish, trap, and harvest on the land. They've never given up that right. And so we need to settle the land claims, and we need to settle the treaties and understand the treaties as they were from the time our ancestors handed them down to us. The government really needs to understand that part of the treaty. We're moving forward and it's important that we all understand those agreements, and what we're trying to do with those agreements, and how important it is for us to take over the jurisdiction of education, or of health and social services. We talk about how we're going to work together to implement these rights, and how we're going to work together to administer the jurisdiction of these rights. I think we just need to continue those talks and I think that we need to do it in a way that's respectful of the cultural ties to the land.

And then we've talked about unification and so looking at strong economies, and so looking at the traditional economies and the wage-earned economies, and so how can we bring those together? We need to earn a wage, that's inevitable, of course, but we also need to know how to live off of the land. And that's really important. So the young people need to understand how to hunt and fish and trap in a way that's respectful. And there's ways of doing that. There's ways of doing community monitoring where the community is involved in making sure that their families are being taught in a respectful way. So that when they're hunting, and they're fishing, and they're trapping, they're not doing it in excess, and they're not over-hunting, and over-fishing, because we need these lands to be sustainable.

I had read an article not long ago about how we're killing Mother Earth. And that's not true at all, what we're doing is: if we're not working in a sustainable way, we're killing ourselves, because Mother Earth will continue without us. Mother Earth will go on and she will cleanse herself and replenish herself without us. And so we're not killing Mother Earth, we're killing ourselves. We need to understand that and we need to understand the importance of living sustainably. The Indigenous people have the knowledge of the traditional way of life and have the knowledge of this wage-earned economy and so we need to start bringing that together.

Your constituency covers four communities that are quite spread out. What's your commitment to the people in those constituencies to stay connected with them and hear their concerns so that you can represent them at the legislature?

We need to visit the communities often and we need to talk to the community members as often as we can. And so being in touch that way, and making sure that I'm at the communities and visiting the communities and talking to the communities in a consistent way will be very important.

Just even in the last couple of weeks talking to the constituents I haven't, by any means, gone through as many as I would like to but the ones that I have talked to, it opened my eyes to how many concerns we have and how we need to be aware, just in the small time that I've spent with them.

I can't imagine, if I get elected, what the next four years are going to be like for me, talking with them and learning about how we can do things differently, and learning about what it is for them and what their solutions are going to look like. It would be great in the next four years if we could work together, learn together, and come up with solutions together. I look forward to that. I look forward to talking to them. And I look forward to coming up with those solutions together. I think it's going to be great.

What's your final pitch? Why should people vote for you?

I was raised with a very community-minded foundation. I was raised by a father that spoke strongly in the Legislative Assembly and outside about how communities need to be the decision-makers for their communities, their lands, and for their people. And I think that's really important and that's something I was raised with.

I have a bachelor's degree with two majors in Native studies and political science, and then I also did my master's research on how the Dene resolve disputes and how we did it in the old ways, how we can use those old ways to create programs and services that are relevant and effective for our people.

I've worked in government. I've worked as an assistant negotiator for the land claim self-government agreements. I've worked as an implementation negotiator. I've worked as a manager of community justice and an Indigenous human resource specialist. I've also worked for Akaitcho Treaty 8. I've worked as the IBA office manager and the negotiations coordinator for the treaty land entitlement back in the day when they were negotiating TLE (treaty land entitlement). And then I also ran a nonprofit organization for three years.

And so I have experience and I have education and I have very strong community roots, and I think that is what is going to benefit the communities for the next four years.

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NWT Election 2019: Lila Fraser Erasmus' Tu Nedh-Wiilideh interview - Cabin Radio

Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi points to a map of Somaliland while The Brenthurst Foundation director, Greg Mills, looks on during the presentation of an economic diversification plan in Hargeisa. Photo: Ray Hartley

You see, says President Muse Bihi Abdi, pointing to an area to the east on the giant map of Somaliland covering the one wall of the presidential briefing room in Hargeisa, in this area, clan members think I have a gun, I am the government, explaining why the area is spotted with Al-Shabaab fighters and his government continues to battle to establish governance.

This has echoes in the observation of the 19th century traveller Richard Burton of the Somali that every man his own sultan.

The restive east notwithstanding, a great deal has been achieved by the hitherto unrecognised Republic of Somaliland since its reproclamation of independence in 1991.

Re-proclamation as, three decades before, in June 1960, Somaliland gained its independence from its colonial master, Britain, before making an ill-fated decision to join former Italian Somaliland five days later. This union was then envisaged to incorporate French Somalia (now Djibouti), the Somali-dominated Ogaden region of Ethiopia, and a piece of northern Kenya. That never happened.

Instead, following a bitter civil war that saw the forces of Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre employ Rhodesian mercenaries (among others) to bomb and strip the capital of Hargeisa, the Somali National Movement booted out the occupiers, and set about creating the conditions for stability which have endured since.

A domestic peace process was constructed around five major internal meetings, starting with the Grand Conference of the Northern Peoples in Burao, held over six weeks and concluding with the declaration of Somalilands independence from Somalia on 18 May 1991.

Somalilanders concentrated on achieving peace, not on acquiring comforts and financial rents for delegates from the process. This feature has continually blighted Somalias overtures to the south, as conflict entrepreneurs in Somalia have fed off both the fighting and the talking in a top-down process financed by donors, and which have largely taken place outside the country. The bottom-up process was consolidated through the development of a democracy, again slowly but steadily.

In 2002, Somaliland made the transition from a clan-based system to multi-party democracy after a 2001 referendum, retaining an Upper House of Elders (guurti), which secures the support of traditional clan-based power structures. Regular elections and a regular turnover in power between the main political parties have characterised the local politics.

Its hyper-competitive too. The 2003 presidential election was won by Dahir Riyale Kahin by just 80 votes out of nearly 500,000 from Ahmed M Mahamoud Silanyo. The tables were turned between the two in 2010. President Bihi was elected in 2017, receiving 55% of the vote. He had served in the Somali Air Force flying Soviet Ilyushin Il-28 twin-engine bombers in the 1977 war that attempted unsuccessfully to wrest the Somali-dominated Ogaden from Ethiopia before changing his allegiance to the rebel Somali National Movement.

As the euphoria of self-government fades, his is an increasingly difficult job. The economy is straining. Infrastructure is poor. The unemployment rate among those under 30, who comprise 70% of the population, is 75%. The chewing of khat (a narcotic plant) is a widespread social blight among more than half the adult population, an effective tax on productivity and foreign exchange, soaking up as much as $700-million in annual imports.

This situation has been worsened by the paucity of skills, as a result of which there is a contrasting dependency on foreign talent. Literacy is under 45%, and just 20% for women. Female genital mutilation, at an estimated 99%, says something else about the state of power relations.

The Somaliland government budget is just $200-million, three-quarters of which is spent on salaries and operational expenses. Annual GDP is estimated at little more than $646 per capita. Electricity is five times more expensive than in neighbouring Ethiopia, at $1 per kw/h, reflecting the dominance of monopolies, which also define the banking and telecoms sectors

Productivity is poor, and growth opportunities few and far between. Outside of remittances, which provide 55% of the GDP of $2-billion, Somaliland depends on its sale of camels and goats, though this has suffered from a Saudi foot-and-mouth disease import ban except during the Hajj, halving the annual exports to 1.2 million. This challenge has been worsened by the related pressure on grazing areas and the current drought, especially in the Haud, a broad strip of rich pastureland that straddles the Ethiopian-Somaliland border.

The government prefers to highlight the absence of international diplomatic recognition as both the principal problem and solution to Somalilands challenges.

No foreign government recognises Somalilands sovereignty, even though it fulfils the requirements for statehood, including the hosting of regular free and fair elections, the capacity to defend itself, and the issuing of its own passports and currency.

Certainly, the absence of recognition adds a risk premium along with more prosaic management hurdles. Finance sector experts reckon the premium of non-recognition to be between 7-8% on the cost of money. The Central Bank of Somaliland has so far been unable to register a SWIFT code, which would enable direct and secure international funds transfers.

Non-recognition also means donor funding for Somalilands four million people is around just 15% of the $1-billion received by Somalia. Its a crazy, cruel and not so beautiful world. The donors have essentially incentivised insecurity, misgovernment and chaos. In Somalia, peace is a multibillion-dollar industry.

Except for the involvement of Dubai Ports World in a $450-million development of the Berbera facility on the Gulf of Aden, supplemented by the Ethiopian government for strategic access reasons, foreign investors are few and far between despite frequent expressions of interest and delegations.

But Mogadishu would have to agree to a divorce. And no government there is likely to do so and survive another 24 hours. Its about as likely as khat being banned. The hangover would overwhelm any government in Hargeisa, no matter how well-intentioned the measure.

The most immediate challenge Somaliland faces is the transformation of its economy from one based on pastoral livestock herding to one capable of generating employment to deal with the challenge of out-of-work youth, a potential threat to stability.

These reforms will require a sector-by-sector transition from the old way of doing things to a more modern approach, as outlined below.

Livestock: From nomadic pastoralism to modern farming

The Somaliland Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture estimated that livestock made up 60-65% of the national economy with a population of 10-million goats, five million sheep, five million camels and 2.5-million cattle. These numbers may be out of date, however, and it is difficult to obtain more contemporary figures. The major markets for livestock are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen and Oman.

The lack of reliable data notwithstanding, all those we interviewed agreed that livestock was the largest economic sector at 29,5% of GDP [1].

Export income from livestock derives almost entirely from the sale of live animals to countries on the Arabian peninsula and Saudi Arabia, in particular during the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca.

The export of live animals for the Hajj involves a network of buying agents in Somaliland, but also in Ethiopia and elsewhere, who procure the animals and transport them to the port of Berbera where between one and two million of the live animals are boarded on vessels and shipped to Saudi Arabia during the 20 days of the Hadj.

This effectively means the biggest slice of Somalilands foreign exchange earnings occurs during an annual 20-day window.

At the centre of Somalilands economy stands the Blackhead Persian, a breed of sheep that is well adapted to the climate and which is the countrys single largest export.

Although Somaliland struggles to export its livestock because of its unrecognised status, this unique sheep is an exception. During the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia, more than a million sheep and goats are exported for slaughter in keeping with religious tradition.

But this annual export boon is precarious. The sheep are exported during the Hajj because of sheer necessity. There is simply no other country that can supply millions of sheep for slaughter over 20 days. Somalilands sheep are smaller than breeds from other countries and are therefore cheaper. They can also be transported live over a relatively short distance to Saudi Arabia. For the rest of the year, Saudi Arabia does not import Somalilands livestock because it says the animals do not conform to its health standards.

The sheep have a South African connection. In the 1940s, South Africa invented a new breed, the Dorper a cross between the Dorset and the Persian. Its ability to survive in arid conditions and to thrive where other sheep struggle has made it a big part of South African and Australian herds.[2]

There are several unique characteristics of sheep-rearing in Somaliland that should be noted. The sheep are largely raised by pastoral nomads who move the flock from place to place and from a traditional well to well in time-honoured fashion. Nomadic herding works if the ratio of animals to pasture allows for the regeneration of grasses, but herds have increased in size, and modern technology cellphones, for example cause the movement of herds into areas where it has rained but the grass had not yet revived.

The result has been catastrophic, with some 60% of herds decimated by the recent three-year drought.

This mobile, opportunistic pastoralism [3] is not the most efficient or productive way to raise sheep. Disease control and pasture management are much better on fenced lands where grazing can be rotated and the sheep can more easily be dosed and observed.

The containment of flocks to fenced fields would also allow for better management of pasture which improves its carrying capacity, and for selective breeding and the introduction of specialist rams to improve the gene pool.

Access to veterinary services that will reduce losses due to disease and make the sheep more desirable to importers is also improved with proper pasture management and enclosure.

Cattle, camels and goats are also raised and sold at livestock markets in the large cities.

Camel milk is locally consumed, but there is the possibility of an export market for this as it has become popular in Australia, for example, where its health benefits are touted.

There is an opportunity to extend the export market by selling slaughtered animals year-round, but this requires investment and the establishment of cold-chain logistics, allowing slaughtered meat to be chilled from the site of slaughter to the port.

A further diversification option would be the canning of meat, which could create employment and extend the shelf-life of meat products and allow them to be exported more widely.

Agriculture: From rain-fed to irrigated

Agriculture is the second largest productive sector of the economy after livestock rearing. Sorghum has been the traditional cereal crop, but wheat is being investigated as the future mainstay because it requires three months to grow to maturity compared with sorghums six months. [4]

The biggest obstacle to cultivation is the shortage of water. Around one-tenth of the land is suitable for cultivation and only half of this is used to grow crops. Government has allocated land for research into dry land crops where 720ha are used to grow sorghum and 76ha to grow wheat, proving that the latter is more suitable.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has supported projects to build canals for the irrigation of crops.

For irrigation to work, dams need to be built to preserve rainwater run-off. Smaller earth dams require less capital investment and may be constructed by local farmers with the assistance of earth-moving equipment.

The production of cash crops is increasing with the introduction of greenhouses and drip irrigation technology. The agriculture department has begun research into drip irrigation techniques for the growing of tomatoes on a small scale at the departments headquarters in Hargeisa. This type of cultivation is more suitable for an arid country such as Somaliland.

Cash crops include tomatoes, watermelons, cucumbers, eggplant and onion and there is an export market in Djibouti for some of these crops.

The traditional divide between animal farming and crop farming needs to be altered so that crops are grown as supplementary feed for animals. Farmers with one hand in livestock and the other hand in cultivation [5] are needed.

Fisheries: From small boats to commercial vessels

Despite possessing an 850km coastline, reputed to have large stocks of fish that could be sustainably harvested, Somaliland has a small fishing fleet consisting of vessels of between five and 12 metres and this economic activity underperforms when it comes to contribution to GDP.

Fishing output has increased from 10,000 tons in 2014 to 120,000 tons in 2017 [6], but this is reckoned to be below the industrys potential by some distance.

The reasons for this are many and complex. Somalilanders are traditionally nomadic livestock owners and the possession of animals is associated with status. Fishing obviously does not accomplish this and is looked down on as an activity for the desperate and poor.

The Minister for Finance Development, Suad Muse Duale, put it this way: Fishing is looked down on as far as our tradition is concerned you must have a flock. [7]

This is, in fact, the case at present. Fishing is conducted on a small scale and the sale of fish is limited to the coastal area due to the lack of a reliable cold-chain for transporting the fish to the interior. It is notable that the capital city of Hargeisa with its large population has no fish market despite its relatively close proximity to the coastline. Fish ought to be a readily available cheaper protein option throughout Somaliland and it ought to have an export market given the short distance to big fish-consuming markets in the Mediterranean which are readily accessible via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

In order to increase local consumption and exports, investment is needed in refrigeration facilities at the coast, for transport vehicles and in the cities to extend the shelf-life of the fish.

The development of the transport corridor between Ethiopia and the port of Berbera opens up the possibility of exports to that country, a large market which may be game-changing for the industry

In addition to this, there are high barriers to entry with small locally made boats costing $20,000 each [8]. Less expensive boats might be imported or the price might be brought down by increased competition.

An immediate problem is that the research which suggests fish stocks are vast and untapped is dated and may even be decades old. A fresh survey has been commissioned and ought to give greater insight into the variety of harvestable fish and how they might best be caught.

Oil: From exploration to production

The licence to explore two oil blocks was awarded to Genel Energy in 2012. Exploration in 2015 confirmed there is potential in SL-10B and SL-13 and the Odewayne block with estimated oil reserves of one billion barrels in each.

A further study of seismic data and analysis of the basin has, according to Genel, led to the maturation of prospects and leads inventory for the SL10B13 block (Genel 75% working interest and operator) which confirms the long-standing view that the block has significant hydrocarbon potential. A number of potentially high-impact exploration targets have been identified within play types directly analogous to the prolific Yemeni rift basins. [9]

The company says it will initiate farmout assigning blocks to developers once these prospects have been quantified in late 2019.

There appears to be a very real prospect that game-changing oil production might get underway in the near future.

In the words of Energy and Minerals Minister Jama Mahmoud Egal, Most people are looking at our ministry because they see it as the only sector where growth can occur. [10]

The optimism over the possibility of oil in Somaliland derives from the fact that it shares the same geology as the oilfields on the Arabian peninsula. The oil is there, it is just a matter of when we get it, says Egal.

Formal exploration drilling is set for 2020 when the country will finally know if the promising fields can deliver.

To prepare for this eventuality, the ministry has produced several pieces of legislation, including the Petroleum Bill and the Petroleum Revenue Sharing Bill, to create a legal and regulatory environment for the nascent oil industry. But the legislation has been stuck in Somalilands slow-moving parliament.

There is the danger that oil will visit the resource curse on Somaliland, creating a small extremely wealthy elite with profits moving offshore and creating few jobs for locals who do not possess the skills needed for the industry, which is not, in any event, labour intensive.

To mitigate this, discussions have begun about how to include communities.

The best way to ensure that governments oil revenues are used to the benefit of all would be to house these in a sovereign wealth fund and use it to address Somalilands chronic infrastructure shortages, from the improvement of city roads to the creation of a national electricity grid and a piped water network.

Oil by-products could support other manufacturing industries based on plastics.

Minerals: From small-scale mining to commercial production

Somaliland is believed to have large untapped mineral resources including the largest untapped deposit of gypsum in the world, gemstones, precious metals including gold, and industrial metals including copper and lead.

Mining is, to use the words of Omer Yussuf Omer, the director of minerals, very primitive and traditional. [11]

There is some interest from international players with Chinese and Indian firms taking the lead. Chinese firms mine jade while Indian firms are about to begin exploration.

Any mining deeper than 20m requires a mining permit and the state takes a royalty only off exported minerals.

The challenge of scaling up mining is daunting. Any large-scale commercial mining requires an input that is in short supply water. And Somaliland has no commercial mining tradition, know-how or skills. We have no mining culture, we are just starting to exploit resources, says Omer.

Nonetheless, the Somaliland government remains optimistic that it can attract foreign investment and expertise and that minerals could contribute a lot more to growing the economy and employment.

Legislation to regulate mining is also stuck in parliament.

Light manufacturing: From small-scale to processing

Light manufacturing on scale is limited to the bottling of soft drinks and water, with Somaliland in common with almost every nation on Earth having a Coca Cola bottling factory.

The plant, some 13km outside of Hargeisa down a winding dirt road through the dust, is evidence that with the right product, access to water via borehole, a local partner and the import of key ingredients, foreign investors can thrive in Somaliland.

Coke made the $17-million investment five years ago with the local Laas Group after a poignant pitch by our chairman Mr Ahmed Osman Guelleh in 2009. [12]

Production team leader at the pristine state-of the-art factory, Abdi Fattah Ibrahim started out as a line worker at the plant five years ago. A graduate of Gollis University in Hargeisa, Ibrahim is evidence of the difference that opportunities make.

I started as an ordinary worker on the machines, says Ibrahim during a tour of the plant, which also produces bottled water. [13] Down the road, another plant produces fruit juices, using fruit grown in an irrigated orchard again evidence of what can be achieved with the right investment.

Beyond that, there is the manufacture of materials such as cement bricks for the construction of homes and a small artisanal furniture industry which makes beds, cupboards, tables and chairs.

The manufacture of plastics and foam used in upholstery and for mattresses is also present.

There have been several initiatives to fire up small manufacturing businesses in Somaliland, most notably by the World Bank, which has made funding available for small businesses. Firms cite access to finance (49%) as the single biggest obstacle to growing their businesses, followed by access to land (25%), transportation (8%), tax rates (7%) and electricity (5%). [14]

Access to land in Hargeisa is restricted by high prices, which are driven by the absence of other investment opportunities. There may be somewhat of a property bubble in the capital city. Minister for Finance Development Suad Muse Duale told us an astonishing fact: Downtown Hargeisa is as expensive as downtown New York. [15]

Another reason cited for the lack of growth in manufacturing is that urban Somalilanders are traders evidenced by the vast number of small traders selling everything from ice cream to mattresses that crowd the side-streets of the city centre.

As a result of the small manufacturing sector, the importing of goods for sale occurs on a large scale relative to the size of the economy, leading to a trade deficit. The latest 2019 statistics suggest there is $202-million worth of exports against $1,205-million in imports. [16]

In addition, the lack of formalisation of businesses leads to weak data and weak revenue for a government which is under-resourced.

The lack of sufficient formal lending facilities and the fact that those who get credit have access to foreign credit markets and loans from families, points to the urgent need for improved financing for small enterprises.

The high cost of electricity and the piecemeal nature of land titling and registration which happens at a local level, are also key constraints.

A new one-stop-shop to allow for the quicker registration of new businesses and the formalisation of existing enterprises have been operating for six months, but it appears to have failed to adequately cut red tape and reduce the time it takes to register. [17]

The opportunity exists for Somaliland to leapfrog the traditional economic development step of creating light and heavy industry by growing an innovative ICT sector.

For an industry to thrive, Somalilands leaders need the political will to take on vested interests in energy and water supply, which need to be disrupted by cheaper, more efficient suppliers of solar energy and piped water.

There is also the potential for Somaliland to leapfrog the manufacturing phase by focusing on creating opportunities for the youth in the tech space. But efforts to do this are few and far between.

Down an almost unnavigable rocky dirt road in downtown Hargeisa, Bashir Ali Abdi runs Innovation Ventures, which seeks to provide an incubation space for Somaliland tech startups.

Link:

Somaliland: New ways of doing things in a rough neighbourhood - Daily Maverick

There has been valuable research measuring the size of the gym and fitness club markets but never a report of this scope and depth that benchmarks and analyzes the entire physical activity market and its submarkets.

MIAMI (PRWEB) September 18, 2019

The Global Wellness Institute (GWI), a nonprofit research and educational resource for the world wellness industry, today announced that its 2019 research report "Move to Be Well: The Global Economy of Physical Activity" will be released at the Global Wellness Summit being held at the Grand Hyatt Singapore from October 1517.

If in 2018 the GWI found that the fitness/mind-body market was worth $595 billion, this new study broadens the scope of that segment to the physical activity sector, which includes the fitness, sports and active recreation, and mindful movement segments as well as supporting markets, including equipment and supplies, apparel and footwear, and technology. The 150+ page report is packed with data on all these key segments across the physical activity market (at global, regional and national levels); insights on emerging trends and business opportunities across countries; and 5-year growth projections. The generous support of 18 industry sponsors will make this much-anticipated research free to the world.

There has been valuable research measuring the size of the gym and fitness club markets but never a report of this scope and depth that benchmarks and analyzes the entire physical activity market and its submarkets, noted Susie Ellis, GWI chairman and CEO. It should prove a powerful resource for anyone in this explosively growing industry and help spur the broader global health imperative to bring physical activity to all.

Our research sponsors make GWIs annual studies a reality, and theyre moving the entire wellness industry forward by making this critical data and insight accessible to all, said Michelle Gamble, VP, Business Development. They deserve much credit.

Research Sponsors (to date):

Titanium Sponsor:

OCTAVE Institute is a platform to help people find clarity, harmony and a new level of consciousness and freedom. It is comprised of SANGHA Retreat in Suzhou, China, an innovative, fully immersive health and wellness retreat, combining Eastern philosophies with Western science; the VILLAGE; AITIA; THE LIVING ROOM; and the annual AT ONE International Festival.

Platinum Sponsors:

Biologique Recherche is a leader in high-end, personalized beauty care, whose products are used in luxury hotel spas, medical spas and day spas in over 70 countries.

Cannuka combines the finest cannabis with the best Manuka honey to create a unique, medically inspired and unexpected beauty and skin-care line.

Technogym is a world-leading supplier of products, services and solutions in the fields of fitness and wellness. The company has over 2,000 employees; 14 branches in Europe, the U.S., Asia, the Middle East, Australia and South America; and was the official supplier for the last six Olympic Games.

Gold Sponsors:

Chsen Experience is a network of global innovators and next-generation leaders whothrough a range of lifestyle-optimization programsstrive to live courageously, confidently and healthily.

MINDBODY is the leading technologyand cloud-based business management softwareplatform for the wellness industry, serving 35 million consumers in over 130 countries and territories.

Six Senses Hotels Resorts Spas, an award-winning pioneer in sustainable wellness travel, manages 18 hotels and resorts and 30 spas in 21 countries, with 19 further properties in the pipeline. Its now part of the IHG (InterContinental Hotels Group) family.

The Hydrafacial Company has been revolutionizing skin health for over 20 years and is a leading aesthetic device manufacturer for aesthetic professionals in over 87 countries.

Silver Sponsors:

Accor Hotels is a leading global travel group spanning more than 4,500 hotels, resorts and residences in 100 countries.

Best Life Rewarded delivers innovative, science-based wellness programs that improve the wellbeing of a companys employees.

Delos is a wellness real estate and technology company dedicated to improving the wellbeing of people worldwide by improving their indoor environments.

Eterneva celebrates remarkable people and pets by turning their ashes into diamonds, through a grief-changing journey as special as the loved one and diamond itself.

Pure Global is a top global provider of healthy indoor spaces, whose technology purifies every surface and air particle to bring environmental wellness to all kinds of spacesfrom hotels to homes to schools.

Rancho La Puerta: Founded in 1940, The Ranch pioneered the concept of the true destination spa and remains a world-renowned wellness retreat in the mountains of Baja California.

Subz3ro, a fast-growing spa quickly expanding in Mexico, specializes in cryostimulation, a cold therapy that safely reduces the bodys inflammation and improves skin and overall wellness.

The BodyHoliday is a unique, award-winning wellness destination in Santa Lucia that combines a great beach vacation with personalized-to-each-guest health and wellbeing.

Universal Companies, for over 30 years, has been a leading single-source supplier of products to 30,000 spa professionals in 47 countries.

WWWeight Watchers Reimaginedis a global wellness company and the world's leading commercial weight management program.

For more information, contact Beth McGroarty: beth.mcgroarty@globalwellnessinstitute.org.

About the Global Wellness Institute: The Global Wellness Institute (GWI), a nonprofit 501(c)(3), is considered the leading global research and educational resource for the global wellness industry and is known for introducing major industry initiatives and regional events that bring together leaders to chart the future. GWI positively impacts global health and wellness by advocating for both public institutions and businesses that are working to help prevent disease, reduce stress, and enhance the overall quality of life. Its mission is to empower wellness worldwide.

Read more:

First-Ever Report on the Global Economy of Physical Activity To Be Released at Global Wellness Summit - PR Web