Monthly Archives: August 2017

On Wednesday, August 9, QuickLogic (NASDAQ:QUIK) reported uneventful F2Q2017 results, but forward guidance for 3Q 2017 was disappointing due to delays in new product ramps at some of its customers, in particular the continued delay by Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) on its Gear Fit Pro device. As such, contrary to guidance from 90 days ago, QuickLogic's management stated that it is not on track to achieve 50%+ revenue growth for full-year 2017 that was dependent upon a material new product revenue ramp starting in 3Q 2017 and accelerating into 4Q 2017. In addition to the further Samsung delay, anticipated smartphone business has been pushed back 1-2 quarters. Management is now saying a revenue ramp will likely start in 4Q 2017 and build from there as 2018 unfolds and that the company thinks it can achieve its margin model in full-year 2018, including 10% operating margin.

Management delivered a comprehensive post-earnings conference call that covered a lot of bases in terms of served markets, company-specific fundamentals, and comments about an increasing number of design engagements and actual design win activity. With that said, given how long the QuickLogic saga has lingered, I suspect most people will react by thinking - gosh, this is just another disappointment from this company with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo commentary. Same 'ole, same 'ole...

However, if investors pay close attention to what the management said and grasp, the fundamental building block nature of the commentary including breadth of market, product uniqueness, relative newness of the design environment, the value and contribution of ecosystem partners, an increasing engagement funnel, an increasing - albeit nascent - design win funnel, and the fact that certain customers (Samsung and the two new Chinese firms) are, or plan to broaden the use of EOS S3, plus building momentum for eFPGA, there is a potentially compelling story creeping out of the weeds. Green shoots one might say.

If the initial new product (EOS S3 and eFPGA) revenue ramp materializes in 4Q2017 as management is now guiding, and then accelerates in 1Q2018 and beyond, I think investors will likely look back and say wow, that mumbo-jumbo was pretty detailed and made sense. So then in future calls, people may be inclined to place more value on managements words and its credibility will grow. Most investors who have been following QuickLogic for a few years or more would probably argue that management credibility is low. So clearly the story is at a credibility inflection.

Also, assuming it materializes, once design-win momentum and revenue growth are both ramping, the stock will likely return to discounting more future growth potential "on the come" again versus the "show me" mode it is in now.

It is my belief that the current and relatively new management team (CEO Brian Faith and CFO Sue Cheung) as the Top Dogs anyway - is building the foundation for steady and sustainable revenue growth and is very conscious of and concerned about shareholder interests and being credible. With that said, while I am getting a bit impatient to see the money (i.e., revenue growth), I do think the initial material new product revenue ramp push back to Q4 2017 from Q3 2017 isnt QuickLogic managements fault. Its due to customer delays. Now the obvious response to that statement is if it had more customers, it would come out in the wash. That is true, but this is early days of the EOS S3 and eFPGA new product ramp. It is the plan that the customer base and product exposure will be more diverse in the future so certain delays and push-outs can be absorbed as revenue and earnings continue to ramp.

I have been focused on three themes of late:

1. Multiple End Markets - In my view, it is good that QuickLogic is targeting and actively cultivating multiple end markets, specifically wearables/hearables, eFPGA, smartphones, and IoT, as serving many customers with multiple products. This reduces the likelihood of a scenario where a small number of huge design wins increases the risk of round trip revenue if the company doesnt hold its socket positions from generation to generation, for example, with a large smartphone maker - although I would like to see some of that action. In the end, a larger base of customers with multiple products overlapping from a commercial perspective reduces customer concentration risk and should enhance the stock multiple. In particular, while the chances of a moon shot are diminished by not being able to generate discrete sensor processing business in high volume smartphones, being at the core of designs for a spread of products over four broad end markets increases the usable value of all facets of the EOS S3 device and drives more upside value pricing. In the Q2 2017 call, management indicated it is looking at better pricing and margins in the profile described above versus being a discrete sensor hub in smartphones for ultra low power but little else relative to the multiple blocks of functionality in the EOS device.

2. Broad Customer Base Support - A key challenge for the company in a broader and deeper served markets scenario, as described above versus a concentrated smartphone customer base, is the fact that QuickLogic will have to serve a larger number of small, medium and large customers from a human resources, sales, marketing and technical support perspective. However, management stated on its call that its open system approach where customers can easily use proprietary, QuickLogic provided, or third-party software with its EOS S3, combined with recently commercialized and substantially more functional design tools from the company, allows a multitude of customers to handle their own system design needs with minimal if any participation from QuickLogic personnel. This is good, and as more client design engineers get used to the design tools and implement their proprietary software into more and more products, it helps QuickLogic achieve stickiness with its customers, or stated otherwise, a potential sustained competitive advantage.

This is very similar to the programmable logic business models that companies like Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) and Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) were so successful with in the 1990s and 2000s and the analog business model companies like Maxim (NASDAQ:MXIM) and Linear Tech (NASDAQ:LLTC) employed. All four of those companies had stocks with above-average multiples relative to the average semiconductor stocks of the day. Additionally, the eFPGA high-margin licensing business should also be a higher-than-average stock multiple enhancer. So the key to success for QuickLogic to replicate this success, even if it is on a more modest level, is to penetrate as many customers and products as possible and get those customers hooked on the design environment and the versatility and uniqueness of the EOS and eFPGA functional blocks.

3. Multiple Products Per Customer (meaning, the need to expand the customer base and broaden the number of products and or product platforms QuickLogic serves at each customer). As I mentioned in my last article, the two Chinese ODMs (original device manufacturers) that designed EOS S3 into initial products in June plan to use them as the basis for product platforms and thus multiple end products or flavors of products. Also, QuickLogic stated on its 2Q 2017 call that the Tier One smartphone maker that is poised to ramp its first fitness wearable (which I believe to be Samsung with its soon-to-be-released Gear Fit Pro product) is designing two more wearables utilizing EOS S3 for a currently expected mid-2018 ramp, actually a hearable and a wearable. It would be nice if the wearable turns out to be the next generation Samsung smartwatch.

So to conclude on the above, while initial and significant new product EOS S3 and eFPGA revenue growth has been pushed to 4Q 2017 from 3Q 2017, there does appear to be material progress in progress brewing behind the scenes that could drive sustained revenue and earnings growth once a broader portfolio of design wins emerges and converts to production ramps.

A few words regarding the Samsung Gear Fit Pro, which should be one of the larger initial volume designs to enter production starting in 4Q 2017. QuickLogic's management stated on its call that it is now engaged with production people at Samsung, not just designers, so that is a clear indication a launch is getting closer. There was also some news about a week ago that the Gear Fit Pro just received Bluetooth certification from the Bluetooth Special Interests Group, which also implies an impending release. This is in addition to mid-July news that the Gear Fit Pro showed up at the FCC for approval. So the smoke signals are seemingly getting more frequent.

The story is that Samsung wants to take fitness wearables to the next level in terms of accuracy and battery life, as well as functionality and value I presume. As such, Samsung is taking its time to get this right, and much of the delay has been driven by a spring decision to change a major sensor on the device that drove the need for another round of human trials which should be wrapping up now. Hopefully the new sensor works according to plan. The EOS S3 was never in question as the core SOC in the product as a key sensor was changed. Also, wearables do not have a standard seasonal introduction cadence like the Galaxy and Note phones that are typically introduced in 1Q and 3Q, respectively.

QuickLogic has built up some inventory for Samsung in case it turns on fast intra quarter, perhaps even in the current 3Q 2017. However, given the need to back off 2017 revenue growth prospects, QuickLogics management is reluctant to suggest 3Q 2017 revenue from this product as it is not officially announced but did say it should contribute meaningfully in 4Q 2017. Ill be glad to see it finally happen and I am also glad to hear Samsung likes it enough to use it as a core device in two more upcoming products.

QUIK's share dropped $0.07 to $1.31 on Thursday, August 10th, the day after 2Q 2017 results, which was modest, and I think the market crush on North Korea-related tension was as more to blame than the QuickLogic-specific 2017 revenue guidance disappointment. Also playing into this theory is the fact that QUIK's shares were up modestly to flat for the first hour of trading. They didnt open with unusual pressure.

With that said, my best guess is the stock is in a $1.00-1.50 range as a place holder until we see up Q4 2017 revenue guidance - or not - with variables likely driving either end of the range being the macro market environment and any unexpected company-specific news flow.

I continue to believe this story is likely to play out and I also continue to believe it is going to be a slow burn higher until multiple customers in all four of the companys primary served markets begin to ramp simultaneously, which should catalyze a revenue growth acceleration point sometime in 2018. As such, I think the stock should be accumulated in the low to mid $1 range over the next 90 days, with no need for a panic buy, as QuickLogic typically has limited intra quarter news flow. Also keep in mind this stock should not be a major core position given its high-risk profile, but it does have the potential to deliver significant Alpha if the fundamental story unfolds.

I maintain my $4 stock price target. I originally set it as a 12-month target in November 2016 and it is highly unlikely that it will be achieved by November 2017. With that said, I believe it is very doable by late winter or spring 2018 assuming a revenue ramp actually begins in 4Q 2017 and builds momentum throughout the first half of 2018.

My target is predicated on the beginning of a material commercial ramp of the EOS S3 and eFPGA products, leading to improving visibility on revenue and positive earnings growth as 2018 unfolds as opposed to a specific P/E off of specific EPS potential one or two years out. I hope/plan to get more specific on that once an actual ramp starts. In reality, QuickLogic is a public startup or turnaround story and QUIK shares will likely represent a barometer of short- to medium-term fundamental success more than a going concern valuation perspective during the initial ramp phase.

The primary downside risks to the QuickLogic story and thus QUIK shares are a failure to execute broad-based new design win penetration with the companys flagship EOS S3 sensor processing device and to attract a broad array of eFPGA licensees.

Disclosure: I am/we are long QUIK.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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QuickLogic: Progress In Progress - Seeking Alpha

This article first appeared on the Just Security site.

Alex Whiting has already written an excellent clarifying post on Wednesday mornings news that the FBI had conducted an early morning raid of former Trump campaign chair Paul Manaforts home late last month.

But the story is extraordinary enough that I thought it worth a brief follow up, even at the risk of some duplication.

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The first and most obvious thing to note is that having obtained a search warrant entails that Robert Muellers inquiry has turned up at least some concrete evidence of specific criminal conductenough, at any rate, to persuade a judge that there was probable cause to believe a search of Manaforts home would uncover evidence of a particular crime or crimes.

That makes it much more difficult to claim that the inquiry is nothing but a witch hunt, as Donald Trump likes to say, a boondoggle thats stretched on for months without turning up any evidence of wrongful conduct.

Probable cause, of course, is still a far cry from proof beyond reasonable doubt, but theres evidently at least some sort of there there.

Paul Manafort, former chairman of Trump's campaign, at the Mayflower Hotel April 27, 2016 in Washington, DC. Chip Somodevilla/Getty

The more common approach of issuing Manafort a subpoena, by contrast, wouldnt necessarily imply much beyond official curiosity, requiring only that the documents sought have some relevance to a legitimate inquiry.

(For a variety of reasons it seems very unlikely this search was conducted pursuant to a FISA warrant, but in the case of a U.S. person like Manafort, that too would require a probable cause showing of potentially criminal conduct.)

Moreover, realpolitik considerations make it likely that this warrant application would have received particularly exacting scrutiny.

It is not hard to find horror stories about drug raids gone wrong because some magistrate rubber stamped an application based on a dodgy tip and ended up sending a SWAT team into some terrified grandmothers bedroom in the middle of the night.

But everyone involved in this case is well aware that theyre working the highest-profile investigation on the planet, targeting a seasoned political operator with plenty of cash to throw at white-shoe law firms and the president of the United States on speed dial.

Flubbing this would be professionally damaging for all concerned, undermine confidence in the broader inquiry, and perhaps even provide Trump the pretext he so clearly desires for cashiering the special counsel.

It is difficult to imagine the necessary parties signing off on this if the evidence were not compellinglikely more so than would be demanded for a less media-saturated investigation.

The timing also merits comment: By default, warrants are supposed to be executed during ordinary daytime hours unless theres a showing of good cause that an exception must be made, normally either from safety considerations or to prevent the destruction of evidence.

(Here, again, judges are often laxer about authorizing no-knock warrants than I would like, but the same considerations above make a rubber stamp seem less likely in this instance.)

Since we can probably safely rule out fears that Manafort might attempt to reenact the ending of Scarface, it seems reasonable to infer that the good cause in this case concerned the potential for destruction of evidencepresumably some kind of digital documentary evidence that might be very rapidly erased or damaged beyond recovery.

(One aspect Ill admit doesnt quite compute: If you think theres incriminating data Manafort would be prepared to destroy at the sight of an FBI badge through the peephole, wouldnt you expect him to have done so already? This seems less odd if they were interested in recent or ongoing conduct as well as historical records, though probably there are alternative explanations Im not thinking of.)

At this point I should probably stress how unusual this is.

It is always, of course, the case that the target of an investigation has some incentive to suppress or destroy potentially incriminating documents, yet the normal procedure here would nevertheless be to issue a subpoena, not execute a residential searchlet alone a search timed to catch the target asleep.

Some of the reporting about the raid has speculated that this far more intrusive approach was chosen as means of intimidationa way of sending a messagebut, again, the near certainty that the investigators will have to defend their decisions under extraordinary scrutiny would seem to caution against employing such abusive tactics, at least in the absence of some additional, more publicly palatable, rationale.

An alternative hypothesis, then, would be that investigators encountered specific evidence that Manafort had not been, as his attorneys invariably say, giving his full cooperation. (One does not, as a rule, conduct predawn raids of persons one believes to be cooperating fully.)

The search, after all, occurred at a point when Muellers investigation had already been underway for some time. News that the team was probing Manaforts potential involvement in money laundering had surfaced a week prior, but that was hardly the first time the possibility had been broached, and Manafort had already been named as a focus of the FBIs investigation long before Muellers team took over.

Which is to say, the resort to a physical search was almost certainly not a first step, but rather a choice made well into the investigation. Such a drastic move might seem justified if, for instance, documents provided by Manafort did not seem to square with what investigators had obtained from other sources, such as financial institutions.

Whatever the details, the right question to ask is probably not Why did Mueller obtain a warrant rather than just issuing a subpoena? so much as What changed what new information came to lightthat motivated them to switch their approach?

Public reports thus far suggest that the search was primarily focused on obtaining financial and tax records. Thats in line with what Ive expected all along : Collusion is media shorthand, not a defined criminal offense, and in any event fiendishly hard to prove unless your conspirators are boneheaded enough to create a permanent record of themselves colluding in explicit terms.

When two people have a conversation in person, the only available evidence of what they said is normally the recollection of the parties. Large amounts of money, by contrast, are hard to move around without leaving a paper trail.

As many have pointed out, building a financial crimes case against Manafort could be meant as a lever to induce greater cooperation, but it would also be relevant to the broader aim of untangling Russias influence on the presidential election: not only as evidence of a willingness to flout the law, but also as a potential form of Russian leverage over Manafort and, by extension, the campaign.

Finally, an interesting though possibly coincidental tidbit: A few hours after the raid on Manaforts home, Trump launched into one of his trademark Twitter sprees, most notably shocking the Pentagon by announcing a ban on military service by transgendered persons, but also delivering an apparently unprompted attack on (then) Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

Perhaps it wasnt quite as out-of-the-blue as it seemed at the time.

Julian Sanchez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and contributing editor for Reason magazine.

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What the Raid on Manafort's Home Tells Us About Progress in the Russia Investigation - Newsweek

I recently spoke at the Gateway Democrats meeting at a Communications Workers of America hall in St. Louis County. Addressing the broad coalition of Democratic groups in the room, I recalled that the inside of Missouri State Capitol in Jefferson City includes an engraving of the words Progress is the law of life.

However, if the Republican officeholders who control that building have demonstrated one thing, its that unfortunately those words are not true. Progress isnt a guarantee. Republican extremists will use their offices to push us backwards.

Thats also why Ive never been prouder to be a Missouri Democrat. Were the only party fighting for progress for working families. That progress means more jobs, higher wages, quality healthcare and strong public schools.

Absolutely integral to our vision of progress is the empowerment of women.

While the Republican Party is gutting employment protections for women and people of color via Senate Bill 43, the Democratic Party is proactively pushing equal-pay solutions to close the gender pay gap. Access to healthcare, including sexual and reproductive health, is central to expanding economic opportunity to all Americans and fundamental to economic security for women and families.

The majority of Missourians including Democrats, Republicans and Independents support Roe v. Wade and believe the government should not prevent a woman from making her own private reproductive health decisions.

The Missouri Democratic Party is fighting to protect Planned Parenthood funding, to ensure that women have access to the critical health services they need.

Democratic candidates are welcome to their personal views on abortion, but the Missouri Democratic Party will never advocate that they use an elected office to limit or take away a womans ability to make her own reproductive health decisions including the right to a safe, legal abortion.

In order to advance this vision of progress that protects and empowers women, the Missouri Democratic Party is reaching out to every community in Missouri. As chair Ive held events in over 60 counties, from the City of St. Louis to rural Holt County on the Nebraska border. The Missouri Democratic Partys platform committee has held dozens of listening posts all across our state.

Weve also opened up our candidate recruitment process to Democrats around the state by encouraging any candidates, potential candidates, or individuals with tips on who might be a good candidate to email Run@MissouriDems.org.

Its important that all of us work together to find strong candidates that will fight for progress because our vision for a better Missouri isnt an inevitable law of life.

We need to fight for it.

Stephen Webber is chair of the Missouri Democratic Party.

More here:

Progress isn't preordained we must fight for it - St. Louis American

BY: Jack Heretik August 11, 2017 4:06 pm

Tommy Vietor, a National Security Council spokesman during the Obama administration, admitted that former President Barack Obama made no progress dealing with North Korea's nuclear program.

Vietor was asked in an interview if Obama would have changed how he handled North Korea.

"I think you can't look at the situation and say, yeah, he would have stayed the course,' right, because we didn't achieve what we needed to achieve, which was to stop their nuclear program," Vietor said.

"We just never got to a place where any progress was made," Vietor said. "You know, this thing was always just cranking along."

Vietor mentioned that sanctions were placed on the rogue country which has threatenedits neighbors and the United States.

"There was no, nothing progressed in the way we wanted as a result of those sanctions," Vietor said.

New sanctions were recently placed on North Korea, prompting the country to threaten to strike the U.S. territory of Guam, which put many countries on high alert.

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Obama's NSC Spokesman Admits Obama Admin Made No Progress With North Korea - Washington Free Beacon

NEWTOK, Alaska (KTUU) - Earlier this week, a dozen federal agencies released research saying that Alaska is warming twice as fast as the global average, and perhaps there's no community that that better understands the reality of climate change, than the Yup'ik village of Newtok.

"Tip of the spear," said Andrew John, Newtok Tribal Administrator. "We definitely are the tip of the spear. I don't know if it's climate change or not, but I do know the river is eroding and we have to move, because if we don't move, we're going to lose homes."

As a result of erosion, thawing permafrost and flooding, the small the community voted back in 1996 to relocate the village, but only recently did that effort start to gain traction.

On Thursday, several state and federal agencies gathered in Newtok for a celebration. There was singing, dancing and a trip, 9-miles across the Ninglick River, to the villages new town site of Mertarvik. The purpose of the trip was to update the community about the progress being made in the effort to relocate, and hold a ribbon cutting, marking the beginning of construction on a new road that will connect the town site to a gravel pit, which will be used to lay the foundation of the village.

"There is running water now at Mertarvik," said Romy Cadiente, Tribal Relocation coordinator for the Village of Newtok. "We're in the process of building four homes right now. We're also in the process of building roads and everything at Mertavik."

Construction on the new homes and roads began in May. It's phase of the construction plan that Cadiente hopes to have completed within the next 3-5 years, at a cost of roughly $300 million to completely relocate the entire village of Newtok.

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Newtok relocation effort making progress - KTUU.com