Daily Archives: May 18, 2017

Nvidia exec explains how artificial intelligence will change your life – Yahoo Finance

Posted: May 18, 2017 at 2:25 pm

The biggest buzzword in Silicon Valley these days? AI, or artificial intelligence.

The nascent technology is taking off in a big way. Big corporations including Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB) are using AI to significantly improve the user experience, while countless early-stage startups are working on AI-based services to transform areas like agriculture and healthcare.

Thats a big boon for Nvidia (NVDA), Yahoo Finances Company of the Year in 2016. The Santa Clara, Calif.-based business, which has seen its stock price triple over the last 12 months, makes the data-crunching parts necessary to process complex AI algorithms.

People have a lot of views of what AI is and how it shows up in your daily life, Nvidia Vice President of Marketing Greg Estes told Yahoo Finance at the companys annual GPU Technology Conference last week. But its really sort of the modern way to create new applications and to do new things. Its about allowing the computer to learn on its own without having to program every single line of code for all possibilities. The computer learns for itself.

Indeed, its because of AI that newer developments like self-driving cars are possible. Toyota (TM), for instance, joined the ranks of Mercedes-Benz and Audi last week when it announced it would use Nvidia components in its autonomous driving systems for cars by 2020.

Another AI-powered project, Horus, is tackling an entirely different space with a wearable device for the blind and visually impaired due out later this year. Horus employs AI to analyze data captured by cameras and other sensors to give blind and visually impaired people audio instructions on-the-fly for navigating their surroundings more easily.

Were almost taking it [AI] for granted now, Estes said. Youre not necessarily thinking youre engaging with artificial intelligence if youre engaging with Siri or youre talking to Alexa. Just how things have moved from five years ago, where you first started to see the research come out on AI to now, where its showing up in your kitchen.

All those innovations, however, could come at a steep price. In January 2016, the World Economic Forum released a report predicting AI, machine learning, and other nascent technologies will spur a so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution that replaces 5.1 million jobs by 2020. According to the report, jobs across every industry and every geographical region in 15 of the worlds largest economies Australia, Brazil, China, Japan, the UK and the US, among others will be affected.

I dont think youre going to see taking somebody who has a job where youre pulling them off a tractor and turning them into a data scientist overnight, he explained. But just like the industrial revolution or any revolution like that, youre going to see a transfer of jobs in one area to a transfer of jobs in another.

Making the transition a successful one, however, means businesses and institutions must play an active role in helping displaced workers find new careers, Estes added.

JP Mangalindan is a senior correspondent for Yahoo Finance covering the intersection of tech and business. Follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

More from JP:

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Here’s one reason why people are fighting on planes so much – New York Post

Posted: at 2:24 pm

Unless youre in Business or First Class then flying is usually a stressful experience, but it seems like tempers have been running higher than usual over the past few months.

While some have blamed airline cost-cutting for frayed tempers and in some cases all-out brawls, others are laying the blame at another door social media.

A new article published by Quartz has linked the recent increase in fights on planes to the psychological phenomenon called behavior contagion.

Behavior contagion was first coined in the late 1800s by the academic Gustave Le Bon, who used it to describe the bad behavior people displayed when they were in a crowd.

The theory is that people behave worse once they have seen somebody else commit the same antisocial activity.

By witnessing the first person doing it, it then seems less offensive to the second person and they follow suit.

But thanks to smartphones and the internet, people no longer have to be in a crowd to get affected by behavior contagion.

In a paper by Paul Marsden of Stanford University called Memetics & Social Contagion, the writer addresses the ease with which behavior contagion can travel.

He said: Recent research has unequivocally established the fact of the social contagion phenomenon, and has identified its operation in a number of areas of social life.

The implications of this social contagion research are radical: The evidence suggests that under certain circumstances, mere touch or contact with culture appears to be a sufficient condition for social transmission to occur.

So every time footage of an airplane brawl is shared on social media, certain viewers becomes less offended by the actions and more likely to imitate them.

For instance, last November a RyanAir flight, from Brussels to Malta, was forced to land in Pisa after a brawl broke out between a number of passengers that saw an elderly woman hit in the head and a stewardess slapped.

Then in February, two passengers claiming to be lawyers became embroiled in a heated argument over an armreston a Monarch Airways flight from the UK to Malaga in Spain.

And just this month, two men were filmed throwing punches at each other on a Japanese plane ending in the arrest of a boozed-up American traveler at Tokyos Narita Airport.

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Here's one reason why people are fighting on planes so much - New York Post

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Jason Isbell Pines For Immortality In The Heartbreaking ‘If We Were Vampires’ – UPROXX

Posted: at 2:24 pm

The best songwriters can take an old idea and make it sound fresh. And Jason Isbell is one hell of a songwriter. Even though its a thought that most of us have had, his rumination on the idea that any life-long couple will eventually reach a point where one of them has to die first still manages to be heartbreaking. It certainly doesnt hurt that If We Were Vampires features Isbells real-life wife crooning right alongside him about how lucky the undead have it. Prepare for some dusty onion moments on this tender track.

The sparse and mellow folk arrangement isnt exactly out of left-field for someone like Isbell, but it stands in stark contrast to the cuts weve heard already from his upcoming album The Nashville Sound. Hope The High Road and Cumberland Gap were dark and driving, more akin to Springsteen than anything from his last album. Vampires gives us hope that when Isbell says hes taking on the Nashville Sound, he means all of it. It might be readig too much into things, but Im ready to hear him run his voice through as many rock, folk and country permutations as can be found in that musical city.

The Nashville Sound drops June 16 via Isbells own Southeastern Records.

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Regulator could strip alternative medicine charities of their status – The Guardian

Posted: at 2:23 pm

The review has been prompted by complaints that some organisations make unfounded claims about CAM therapies. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Charities that promote unproven treatments for sick patients could be stripped of their charitable status under proposals being considered by the UK governments regulator.

The Charity Commission is reviewing how it decides which organisations qualify as charities a status that brings authority as well as tax breaks after it received complaints that some organisations make unfounded claims about complementary and alternative (CAM) therapies.

Hundreds of charities registered in the UK promote CAM therapies for all kinds of ailments, and while some interventions have demonstrable benefits such as hypnotherapy for irritable bowel syndrome many more are unproven.

The Commission has received more than 300 responses to a public consultation on the issue, which closes on Friday, with many submissions coming from charities themselves. The British Homeopathic Association, which believes that CAM charities are being unfairly targeted by the review, points out that doctors and nurses around the world use CAM therapies in daily practice because they believe they help patients.

But an investigation by Les Rose, a clinical science consultant with the charity HealthWatch, claims to have found that dozens of UK-registered CAM charities offered dubious advice to people. Some discouraged vaccinations while others promoted homeopathic remedies for serious illnesses or invited donations to treat people at a distance by transmitting healing energy.

The assumption is that charities are regulated and the regulator will make sure that they are bona fide, but the regulator doesnt do anything of the kind, Rose told the Guardian. The Commission has to give these charities notice that they will be expected to provide evidence for any claims they make and that theyll be de-registered if they dont do it.

The Charity Commission already requires health charities to provide reliable evidence of their public benefit, but critics allege that these guidelines are not properly applied to CAM charities. To be registered as a charity, the benefits of an organisations work must outweigh any potential harms.

The problem is that the Commission does not follow its own policy, which effectively allows organisations to promote unproven, disproven and even dangerous therapies under the respectable banner of charitable status, said Simon Singh, founder of the Good Thinking Society, which threatened the Charity Commission with a judicial review if it failed to review CAM charities. In its own submission to the consultation, the Good Thinking Society calls for organisations that fail to provide good evidence for their therapies to be removed from the charities register until such time as good evidence is available.

Margaret Wyllie, chair of the British Homeopathic Association, said the Charity Commissions guidance had served it well for years and that it had only launched the review because of a legal threat from a small group of activists committed to depriving people of the choice of using CAM as part of their healthcare.

There is no evidence that demonstrates increased danger to anyone from using CAM, which would necessitate this consultation. While the Charity Commission must ensure that charities are not promoting therapies or lifestyles that cause harm, the evidence they should consider is that of public benefit and here CAM charities can point to the millions of people worldwide who regularly use these therapies and find them beneficial to health, she added.

Doctors have reported cases where CAM therapies have proved harmful. These include infections, trauma and even death caused by acupuncture, and medical complications caused by herbal remedies being used alongside conventional medicines. They also raise concerns that patients might delay or completely avoid effective treatments and use unproven alternatives instead.

Another charity, Sense about Science, wants the Charity Commission to adopt a peer review system that draws on expertise from medical bodies such as the royal colleges to assess charities claims. One of the reasons that quackery succeeds is because it wears so much of the garb of medicine and of legitimate medical charities, said Tracey Brown, the charitys director.

John Maton, head of charitable status at the Commission, said the regulator was aware of the considerable public debate around complementary and alternative medicines. Our approach has been to seek a wide range of views to inform our future approach to CAM, he said. It is clear that there are strongly held but conflicting views on the types and level of evidence that should be required.

The Commission expects to publish its analysis of the consultation in August and confirm any new policy in the autumn.

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Bruce Power, Rolls-Royce sign agreement | Kincardine News – Kincardine News

Posted: at 2:22 pm

Bruce Power and Rolls-Royce have entered into an agreement to implement Rolls-Royces innovative digital analytics tools as part of Bruce Powers Life-Extension Program.

As part of the contract, Rolls-Royce will implement its proven digital technology designed to optimize the operational life of nuclear power plants, known as T-104. The digital technology utilizes worldwide nuclear operating data to provide best-in-class asset management services to the Bruce Power fleet.This enables Rolls-Royce to convert that intelligence into valuable insights to help Bruce Power improve the operational efficiency of its plants.

Big data analytics is a core competency at Rolls-Royce, said Paul Tobin, Executive Vice President at the companys Nuclear Digital Services (NDS) unit. We developed this capability in our aerospace business, where monitoring and mining the enormous data volumes continuously generated by aircraft engines and other aircraft systems has allowed us to achieve massive reductions in operating costs, while concurrently improving safety and reliability. We are now applying the same know-how, coupled with our worldwide nuclear operating data and expertise, to deliver high-value solutions for the nuclear power generation industry.

Rolls-Royce employees will be embedded within Bruce Power so the two organizations can work closely together to use Rolls-Royces powerful, demand-driven forecasting data to improve equipment reliability and reduce inventories and maintenance and materials costs, while improving operational and supply chain practices. The end result is expected to be dramatic operating cost reductions as well as major reductions in capital tied up in parts inventories.

Mike Rencheck, Bruce Powers President and CEO, said Bruce Power is pleased to work with Rolls-Royce on this contract, which promises operating cost savings among other benefits.

By aligning with strong partners we can get the work done that will allow us to continue supplying 30 per cent of Ontarios electricity at 30 per cent less than the average cost to generate residential power, Rencheck said.

Expanding partnerships with local presence

To support its growing relationship with Bruce Power, Rolls-Royce has also announced it is opening its third Nuclear Services office in Canada, in Port Elgin.

Rolls-Royce has been a key partner to Bruce Power on a number of projects and we are pleased to further strengthen our commitment to plant life-extension work with a local presence and a team on hand to support Bruce Power, and be part of the community, Tobin said.

The Port Elgin office is expected to be the focal point over the multi-year implementation of Rolls-Royces T-104 optimization program across Bruce Power. It will draw support from other Rolls-Royce facilities in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Peterborough, Ontario.

The importance of expanding our local supply chain network to provide low-cost services close to site has been a commitment of mine over the past year, Rencheck said. I applaud Rolls-Royce for their expansion into the region. They will be a great community asset, creating high-skilled jobs, supporting community economic development and enabling innovation in the region.

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Melter 2 leaves Savannah River Site’s DWPF after 14 years – Aiken Standard

Posted: at 2:22 pm

A key component in the Defense Waste Processing Facility, or DWPF, at the U.S. Department of Energys Savannah River Site that had reached its end of life was removed from the facility May 17, and then placed into an on-site underground equipment storage vault after 14 years in operation.

Melter 2, encased in a 75-ton, 1-inch-thick carbon steel storage box, was lifted by crane from the DWPF onto a specially designed railcar then transported to the underground storage vault about 300 yards away.

The melter reached the end of its operational life in February, nearly seven times longer than its design life. Part of the reason for Melter 2s longevity is the critical life extension work conducted by SRS engineers and scientists, including work by the Savannah River National Laboratory.

Jack Craig, DOE-Savannah River manager, said Melter 2 is a success story for SRS and for the Department of Energy.

Because of the ingenuity of our technical experts, this melter operated more than a decade beyond its original design life, he said.

Melter 2 now joins Melter 1 in the underground structure. The melter storage box provides confinement and shielding for the melter as well as a handling system for moving it. Each box is about 27 feet long, 16 feet wide and 21 feet high.

The melter is a teapot-shaped vessel that treats high-level radioactive liquid waste being stored in SRS waste tanks by blending it with a borosilicate glass, or frit, to form a molten glass mixture, a process known as vitrification.

The mixture is poured into stainless steel canisters, which are decontaminated and stored safely on-site until a permanent storage facility is identified. Melter 2 poured 2,819 canisters, or 16 million pounds of glass, in its lifetime.

The liquid waste system has been in an outage since February to prepare for the removal of Melter 2, replace it with Melter 3 and complete tie-ins to the Salt Waste Processing System, which is scheduled to be operational in December 2018. Melter 3 is currently undergoing final testing and will be moved into the DWPF later this spring.

The system outage presented an optimum time to perform preventive and corrective maintenance on systems that cannot be shut down for extended periods during melter operations, Craigsaid.

SRR President and Project Manager Tom Foster said replacing the melter is a highly complex and technical task that takes extraordinary expertise and precise execution to complete.

I have compared the complexity of this melter replacement and liquid waste system outage to be like sending a man to the moon. And I dont think thats far off, he said. It took outstanding skill to prepare for this important transport as well as executing the move itself with a heightened attention to detail."

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Melter 2 leaves Savannah River Site's DWPF after 14 years - Aiken Standard

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Jodian Rodgers – Money Free Party candidate for Bristol West in general election 2017 – Bristol Post

Posted: at 2:20 pm

Mr Jodian Rodgers, Money Free Party Resources Shared Equitably candidate for Bristol West in 2017 general election.

Age: 39

Where do you live? Staple Hill

How long have you lived there? 5 years

Where did you live previously? London

What do you do for a living? I manage PAWS a pets and wildlife sanctuary charity shop

Political career: First campaign

What other interests do you have? If time permitted I would dance every night. I love to read and enjoy sports when I can. I follow science and technology closely. Since learning of a Resource Based Economy, visit http://www.thevenusproject.com for information, my focus has remained on this subject and how to spread the idea.

Why do you want to be elected as an MP? It is now clear that the present political system cannot be fixed. It is perfectly designed to benefit the few.

We live in a world where Eight billionaires own the same wealth as the 3.6 billion people who form the poorest half of the world's population (Oxfam briefing paper Jan 2017 An economy for the 99%). It is time for us to rewrite the social.

Whilst introducing RBE to the UK, Parliament and Bristol West, I would challenge injustice and campaign for clean energy. Would work to eliminate homelessness and food banks with community based sustainable projects and call for renters rights. Tackle education budget cuts and help make education and skills relevant to todays challenges

Why do you think you would be a success at the job? Because I estimate I have sixty plus years left in my lifetime and I will not stop promoting and working towards a Resource Based Economy.

I can focus on nothing else but achieving a RBE environment and replace the injustice of the present system of governance. This passion for helping all of Bristol West will always keep me focused on the goal of equality for all.

What would your main aims be during your term of office? Introducing the concept of the Resource Based Economy, end homelessness and food banks replaced with community and self sustainability projects, Tackle education budget cuts and help make education and skills relevant to todays challenges, achieve renters rights, support the community of Bristol West in the best possible way I can, and work for every one of my constituents to achieve justice.

What would you like to say to voters? The current political system is perfectly designed to enrich a few, we can't fix it, as it is profit before environment and people. It is killing the Earth. Its time to explore new models. A Resource Based Economy would end the use of money, trade, barter, credit or servitude and declare all resources as the common heritage of all peoples.

All work would be voluntary, with automation to replace as much work as technological possible freeing us for problem solving and creative work and to explore the world around us the incentive would be an end to war, poverty, politics, leaders and government. Replaced by a participatory competent democracy, where all are invited to join in with decisions providing they have knowledge or experience in the subject area of the decision.

Relevant education would be available for any age, so can take part in whatever you choose. In Bristol our education and skills training has not been relative and now with on average 677 less being spent per pupil we find ourselves with a massive skills shortage, this has been a deliberate policy, to what end! When elected MP I would call for a forensic audit of the entire budget for Bristol West to find waste and then move these monies to where they are needed. And I would appreciate your vote on June 8th.

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Jodian Rodgers - Money Free Party candidate for Bristol West in general election 2017 - Bristol Post

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State must promote local resource-based branches having great export potential, says President of Armenai – Armenpress.am

Posted: at 2:20 pm

State must promote local resource-based branches having great export potential, says President of Armenai

YEREVAN, MAY 18, ARMENPRESS. Armenia must be the most favorable and safe country for all Armenians to live and express themselves. Every citizen must have his participation in the process of becoming such by forming a strong and fair state, President Serzh Sargsyan said in his speech at the first session of the newly elected Parliament.

For achieving our goal, implementing and designing economic policy aimed at ensuring sustainable long term economic growth has important significance. Moreover, combined monetary and fiscal policies must create such a dynamic and stable macroeconomic environment, which will enable to reach both short-term and medium and long term stable economic growth, by ensuring the target indicators for 2040, he said.

According to the President, it is necessary for the average annual pace of economic growth to be significantly higher than average international economic growth paces, in order for the per capita GDP indicator difference between Armenia and developed countries to be gradually reduced.

Particularly, in 1990-2015 Armenias GDP has reached 10 billion 529 million dollars from 2 billion 257 million dollars, growing nearly 4,7 times. In 2016-2040, we must also provide an annual average 5 percent GDP growth and reach more than 57-50 billion dollars GDP indicator providing over 5 and a half times growth.

GDP per capita is planned to be reached over 15000 USD from the 2015 3500 USD in 2040, taking into account both the growth pace and the planned improvements of the demographic situation.

Taking into account Armenias peculiarities and the current economic situation, the state must also have proactive involvement in the economy, according to the President.

The state must encourage and promote especially competitive sectors, sectors having great export potential and mostly those which are based on local resources, and why not specific program development and implementation.

Particularly, we have achieved significant successes in the state-private sector cooperation in the infrastructure, namely water supply, air transportation sectors, however many branches of the economy are yet aside from the abovementioned favorable results of cooperation. Therefore it is necessary to implement specific targeted work in various branches of the economy for raising the accessibility of state-private sector partnership and enhancing opportunities of implementation, taking into account both international and Armenian experience, he said.

Sargsyan said it is necessary to continuously improve the business environment and eliminate business obstacles.

Our goal is to improve our ranking in the Doing Business statistics and reach the top 20 during the coming 4-5 years and have a stable position in the top 15 in the future. We need this very much. It is necessary to break the stereotype under which it is easier for Armenians to achieve success abroad. Yes, indeed, it is incomparably difficult for us to compete against one another, than against foreigners, but this must not be an obstacle for Armenias economic development, but rather a significant boosting force and a precondition. Imagine how difficult it will be for foreigners to compete with united Armenians. The key to success is for us to create the conditions and boost the sectors and development programs where the main competitors are in foreign markets, i.e. the production and services are predominantly aimed at exports, he said.

The President said promoting exports and increasing competitiveness will result in exports of products and services reaching up to 40-50% of GDP during the upcoming five years, and then by maintaining the same trend, it must reach 50-55 % of GDP in 2040.

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State must promote local resource-based branches having great export potential, says President of Armenai - Armenpress.am

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CDP Hires Director of Economic Development – Cape Cod Today

Posted: at 2:20 pm

Ann Robinson, new Director of Economic Development at Community Development Partnership (CDP photo)

The Community Development Partnership (CDP), a non-profit organization creating opportunities for people to live, work and thrive on the Lower Cape, is pleased to announce that Ann Robinson has been hired as its Director of Economic Development. The Director of Economic Development is responsible for leading the organizations Economic Development department in planning, executing and evaluating strategic business and credit programs that have measurable impact in the community.

We are excited to have Ann and her extensive experience in small business development, lending and affordable housing at the CDP, said Jay Coburn, Executive Director of the CDP. As a long-time part-time resident of the Lower Cape, Ann understands the challenges we face in our seasonal, service based economy. And she brings a great depth of experience and new ideas to the CDP and the Lower Cape.

Ann Robinson has had an interest in affordable housing and community development all her adult life. Prior to joining the CDP, she served for 22 years as the Executive Director for Community Capital Fund, a community development financial institution located in Bridgeport, Connecticut. During her time with Community Capital Fund, Ann led the organizations work to provide loans to support affordable housing development, as well as the expansion of small businesses. Before then, Ann was the Executive Director of Bridgeport Neighborhood Trust, where she oversaw the development of rental and homeownership housing for low and moderate-income families. As the Executive Director of Bridgeport Neighborhood Housing and Commercial Services, her work was focused on residential rehabilitation projects for low and moderate income individuals.

Prior to entering the community development field, Ann spent 8 years in Westport, CT as an attorney in private practice specializing in litigation. Ann has an A.B. in government from Dartmouth College and a J.D. from Boston University School of Law.

Ann recently moved to Cape Cod full-time after owning a house in South Chatham for the past 10 years. She has vacationed in South Chatham since she was an infant, so the Cape has been her second home for a long time.

As the CDPs Director of Economic Development, Robinson will lead the organizations economic development efforts to strengthen business sectors with competitive regional advantage, especially traditional and renewable natural resource based industries. Current programs and services include:

1) Small Business Training & Technical Assistance workshops, trainings and one on one technical assistance for small businesses starting up or poised for growth.

2) Micro-loan program - three loan funds that provide working capital for small businesses, ground fishermen and shell fish farmers who are unable to access traditional sources of financing.

3) The Cape Cod Fisheries Trust - a collaborative program of the CDP and the Cape Cod Commercial Fishermans Alliance working to protect depleted fisheries resources, reinvigorate fishing businesses and revitalize coastal fishing communities on Cape Cod.

Robinson started full-time with the organization on May 15th 2017.

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Colby Cosh: How the 1% accidentally pushed so many Americans onto the disability dole (and why it didn’t happen in … – National Post

Posted: at 2:20 pm

Two Canadian economists, UBCs Kevin Milligan and Wilfrid Lauriers Tammy Schirle, have published a new working paper on a subject dear to my heart: the high use of disability insurance, particularly Social Security disability insurance, in the United States. At the end of March 2017, the monthly report from the U.S. Social Security Administration declared that the country has almost exactly 14 million people under the age of 65 receiving some sort of federal disability payment.

This figure includes spouses and dependents of disabled workers, and a few children receiving supplemental income on the grounds of their own disability. The number of actual workers judged to be no longer capable of work, and collecting on Social Security disability insurance earned during their careers, is listed as 8,778,000.

The overall working-age population of the U.S., ranging from ages 15 to 64, stands at about 205 million. So even if we generously leave teenagers in the denominator, thats about four per cent of the American working-age public on disabilityfrom one particular federal program (admittedly the dominant one). However, that quotient does not include any veterans with a service-related disability (there were close to four million of those in 2015), anybody on a state disability program, anybody in a workers compensation scheme, or anyone receiving private disability insurance.

About four per cent of the American working-age public is on disability. This is not normal.

This is not normal, as Milligan and Schirle point out in their paper. Since 1990, the rate at which Americans go on disability insurance under Social Security has increased by two-thirds for men. Over the same period, it tripled for women, as increasing female workforce participation made most of them eligible independent earners. They now become formally disabled at almost the same rate as men.

As dangerous industrial jobs disappear, life in almost every regard becomes vastly safer, and work itself becomes more disabled-friendly, the U.S. has nonetheless experienced a substantial increase in the disabled population, even while Social Security rolls have held steady for the past couple of years. These results contrast with other advanced welfare states, which are usually thought to be much more generous. The Canada Pension Plan disability benefit, for example, attracts workers at one-third the rate.

To my regular readers this will all sound like the set-up to one of those columns where I dig into the guts of a scholarly paper, pointing out surprises and possible pitfalls. To be honest, Milligan and Schirles articleis a little above my pay grade. (My eyes start to wobble out of focus at the sight of the phrase instrumental variables.) But I understand what the authors are trying to do, because its a classy quantitative version of a familiar newspaper columnist trick: they are applying the good old Canadian lens to a foreign issue.

The authors applythe good old Canadian lens to a foreign issue.

The paper is an effort to examine the heavy use of disability insurance in the U.S. workforce a clear outlier among OECD countries, as they put itby using Canada as a sort of statistical control. They have hog-strangling amounts of detailed micro-data on workers from both countries, and by using a lot of modelling tricks and assumptions I am not qualified to judge they use that data to guess what would happen to U.S. disability rates if the U.S. had our economy and our system of public disability benefits.

It is, as they put it, a question of push versus pull. Canadas more resource-based economy did well with high commodity prices during parts of the study period (1996-2016), while manufacturing regions of the U.S. suffered: struggling labour markets could have pushed more American workers onto disability. But Social Security also offers more generous income replacement than the CPP and the QPP do. Maybe public policy is pulling Americans onto disability.

One interesting wrinkle that Milligan and Schirle highlight is not really a result or a finding, but just part of their background research. Still, its something I didnt know, and that you probably dont, even if you are an American. The U.S. benefits formula is closely linked to a national average wage, rather than a median. In Canada, the comparable component in the equation is just a flat ratea number that increases automatically with inflation, blind and deaf to labour market changes.

If a small number of high earners are enjoying wage gains while everyone else stagnates, the average wage still goes up, and that makes disability insurance relatively more attractive.

This means that on the U.S. side, if a small number of high earners are enjoying wage gains while everyone else stagnates, the average wage still goes up, and that makes disability insurance relatively more attractive. The fat cats and technocrats insane high-end incomes trickle down, in a surprising way, directly to Americas most miserable. Perhaps this is a poorly understood way in which American income inequality feeds on itself. Gains among the one per cent end up causing workers at the bottom to drop out and assume a lifelong sick role, all encouraged by an equation.

The actual result of the study is a bit boring. The push and the pull turn out to be about equally important, with the pull of numerically high benefits dominating in the first half of the study period and the push of labour force misery more relevant in the second. Between them, the push and pull factors seem large enough to account for the 1996-2016 trend differences between Canada and the U.S.

But, since their paper is only explaining recent relative trends, it does not account for pre-existing differences in disability-insurance usage, or for the pretty obvious effects of the United States feebler screening criteria (established long before 1996) and its vast, growing kudzu of opportunistic lawyers and administrative disability courts. These are elements of the American disease that are not so easy to quantify.

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Colby Cosh: How the 1% accidentally pushed so many Americans onto the disability dole (and why it didn't happen in ... - National Post

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