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Daily Archives: April 7, 2017
Sundin column: The folly of manned space travel | PostIndependent … – Glenwood Springs Post Independent
Posted: April 7, 2017 at 9:12 pm
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration seems to be obsessed with the idea of manned space travel, starting with sending humans to Mars. Does it make any sense to pour billions of dollars into this effort, and what will it really accomplish other than proving that we can do it?
It is pretty obvious that there are multiple problems to be solved before we can transport anyone both ways across the 50 million miles between Earth and Mars when their orbits bring them closest together. Estimates of the cost of the Mars mission range from a ridiculously low $6 billion to $500 billion, and it is projected to take 40 years to accomplish.
By comparison, in 1980 the International Space Station was estimated to cost $10 billion and take 10 years to complete. It ended up costing 10 times that amount and took 30 years to complete, which makes $500 billion look more realistic for the Mars mission. The biggest challenge is created by the length of time up to a year it will take to complete the mission, and the need to provide life support for the crew for that length of time. There are also the psychological effects of isolation and long-duration living in close quarters, plus the effect of cosmic radiation on the human heart.
Astronauts who have ventured into space have been five times as likely to die from heart failure as those who have not, and their exposure time was only a few days or weeks not months.
Another issue is why not continue with unmanned missions that have been increasingly successful in providing information on Mars and produced the spectacular results of the New Horizons Mission to Pluto? By not having to make provisions for a crew and its return to Earth, unmanned missions can be smaller and lighter (requiring less fuel) and cheaper. The costs of unmanned Mars missions have been from $1 billion to $2.5 billion, and the Pluto mission cost less than $1 billion.
Advances in technology are coming so rapidly that humans encumbered in spacesuits will not be able to do what can better be done robotically. Humans will have become obsolete for space exploration well before a manned mission to Mars will be ready to launch.
The reason offered to justify a manned mission to Mars is that it is the first step in a search for another potentially habitable planet around a nearby star where humanity could survive when conditions on Earth deteriorate to a point that we will no longer be able to survive here. What could be more preposterous?
First, the distance makes it impossible. Our nearest star, 4.3 light years from Earth, has just been discovered to have an Earth-size planet. The highest rocket velocity we have been able to achieve is 0.05 percent of the speed of light, so it would take over 800 years to travel that distance. Next, if our goal is to try to relocate the human race, there is no way we could possibly send the number of people necessary for it to succeed.
Finally, even if it were possible for humans to reach some distant planet, how could they survive? Would the planet have an atmosphere that would support life? Would it have fertile soil and readily available water to raise food crops? (Mars does not.) What would feed the pioneers until crops matured? Would there be the resources and energy supplies needed to support life, and how would the pioneers find them, process them and manufacture what they would need to support anything above a caveman existence?
All of this prompts the question, why should we spend hundreds of billons of dollars on something that has no realistic future? The answer, my friends, is money. The Aerospace Industries Association, supported by more than 300 corporations including Boeing, Curtiss-Wright, DuPont, General Dynamics, General Electric, Honeywell, IBM, Lockheed-Martin and Northrop-Grumman, is busy lobbying Congress (you know what that means) to keep billions of our tax dollars flowing to them through NASA. That money would be better spent on efforts to preserve the livability of our own planet, including safeguarding our environment and developing alternative sources of energy.
NASA's mission should be shifted from manned space flight to searching for and protecting our planet from "Near-Earth objects" asteroids which might someday be on a collision course with Earth, resulting in massive extinctions, including our own.
Hal Sundin's As I See It column appears on the first Thursday of each month.
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Ascension Parish dispatcher honored; maintains composure during floods, triple shooting – The Advocate
Posted: at 9:09 pm
An Ascension Parish sheriff's deputy and 911 dispatcher who continued to handle emergency calls in August knowing her own home was flooding has been honored by the Louisiana chapters of two national organizations, Sheriff Jeff Wiley said Thursday.
Deputy Erica Michel received the Telecommunicator of the Year Award this week from the state chapters of the Association of Public Safety Communications Officials and the National Emergency Number Association, Wiley said in a news release.
Michel, who had also lost a home to Hurricane Katrina, Wiley said, was working in the Sheriff's Office 911 communications center in Gonzales when the catastrophic flood hit in August.
"Even as she realized her own home was quickly being overtaken by flood waters, she was able to maintain her professionalism and composure, while continuing to answer the non-stop radio traffic and the relentless flow of 911 calls from scared citizens," Wiley said.
Among the calls Michel took, Wiley said, was one from a man who heard a gunshot at his neighbor's house. With Michel still on the phone with him, the caller learned that his neighbor had shot himself, after apparently committing a double murder, Wiley said.
The condition of the roads because of the flooding made it difficult for deputies and other first responders to reach the house, Wiley said.
"Deputy Michel was unwavering and maintained contact with the caller, keeping him focused until help arrived at the scene," the sheriff said.
The caller's neighbor was Shawn Millet, 37, of Prairieville, who on Aug. 14, fatally shot Lacey Leblanc, 31, and her 8-year-old daughter at his home, before turning the gun on himself, according to the Sheriff's Office. Millet later died at an area hospital.
Michel has been a member of the Ascension Parish Sheriff's Office 911 communications team for almost three years. Michel, who is certified in CPR, is also a certified emergency medical dispatcher and, last year, became certified as a communications training officer with the Association of Public Safety Communications Officials.
Michel, whose husband, Thomas Michel, is also an Ascension Parish sheriff's deputy, received the award Monday at the annual conference, held in Bossier City, of the Louisiana chapters of the two national organizations for emergency dispatchers.
Michel said Friday that her family's home, built not far from Bayou Manchac in Ascension Parish, received more than 2 feet of water in the August flood, despite already being elevated 9 feet.
She said she and her husband, Thomas, following the predictions of the bayou's rise, knew early on that they would have to boat in to their home, if nothing else, so they brought their two sons, ages 15 and 8, to her parents' home in New Orleans before their Bayou Manchac home flooded.
The crisis was something the couple had seen before. They were living in New Orleans when their previous home flooded during Hurricane Katrina. Their oldest son was just 4 when that happened, Erica Michel said.
It appears the family's present home will have to be elevated further, and the Michel family is living in a recreational vehicle on their property, she said.
Of her work as a 911 dispatcher and, particularly, on the call that came in that August weekend from the caller whose neighbor had killed two others and then himself, Michel said, "I guess, because I'm dealing with someone else's worst day, I try to take myself out of the equation."
"This is their worst moment. I can't make it my worse call," she said.
"To be singled out for that honor is extremely humbling," Michel said of the award she received this week.
"I work in a center with wonderful dispatchers, who any one of them deserve that award," she said, adding that applies to her colleagues everywhere.
"I think she's the personification of so many of our first responders who are selfless and came and served, even though they had such dire circumstances at home" during and after the flood, Sheriff Wiley said Friday
"We're very proud of her and many others like her," Wiley said.
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Ascension Parish president schmoozes with council, dodges press after indictment – The Advocate
Posted: at 9:09 pm
Three weeks after the Ascension Parish Council called on Parish President Kenny Matassa to resign over his indictment on attempted bribery allegations, it was mostly business as usual at the councils bi-weekly meeting in Donaldsonville.
Matassa and council members seeking his ouster showed no reluctance to engage with each other on a variety of issues, including the Community Development Block grant and fair housing programs. They even posed together for a group photo as the parish leader held up a copy of a proclamation.
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GONZALES After hearing from residents who for nearly 40 minutes Thursday night expressed d
And Matassa scored a significant legislative win when the council agreed, 9-1, with one member absent, to fund a new connector road to Lamar-Dixon Expo Center, although promised state and federal support has fallen through over the past three years. The road would provide a second access to the huge complex near Gonzales, improving safety and helping to attract major events.
But Matassa, who has refused to speak to the press since his indictment and the councils no-confidence vote March 16, didnt address the council on that issue Thursday. And he continued to avoid reporters, as he's done since his indictment.
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GONZALES Ascension Parish President Kenny Matassa and Gonzales businessman Olin Berthelot
He ducked an Advocate reporter after the council meeting ended, slipping from his seat to the gated area of the council chambers where the council sits as his representatives blocked a reporter attempting to approach him.
Once behind the gate , Matassa conferred with council members, then left out a back door.
Afterward, his chief of staff, Kyle Gautreau, wouldnt say when Matassa would speak to news reporters again. But he offered a statement on his bosss behalf about the councils vote on the Lamar-Dixon connector.
There was a lot of consensus, an overwhelming consensus, that it was still important to get this road funded and completed, Gautreau, said after his boss had left the parish courthouse without speaking to reporters.
The East Baton Rouge Metro Council created a district to encourage development in North Baton Rouge last year, but now officials disagree over how the program is supposed to work.
Former metro councilman and mayoral candidate John Delgado pitched the North Baton Rouge Economic Opportunity Zone as a way to waive taxes on improvements and new construction in the city above Florida Boulevard. Then-mayor-president Kip Holden vetoed the plan, but council members over-rode him.
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The East Baton Rouge Parish Metro Council on Wednesday overrode Mayor-President Kip Holdens
In December, voters approved a hotel tax to fund a separate Baton Rouge North Economic Development District. Acting executive director Rinaldi Jacobs told the recently-seated board on Thursday that the council's plan will only apply to projects that refurbish existing buildings, not incentivize the construction of new ones.
"The tax abatement relates to existing structures only and not new construction," attorney Richard Liebowitz wrote in a letter Jacobs presented to the board.
The Board of Commissioners for the Baton Rouge North Economic Development District has decid
In an interview later, Delgado, also a lawyer, disagreed. The ordinance had to be worded the way it was, he said, to account for different types of projects and various government programs. It's easier to pass a renovation project through, Delgado said, but the zone also paves the way for new buildings to get a break on their taxes.
Assistant Parish Attorney Ashley Beck cut a middle path, saying the economic opportunity zone has "probably no" direct effect on new construction but could possibly help those projects. The main focus of the ordinance is to encourage the restoration of existing buildings, she said.
Those trying to push forward an agenda for the Baton Rouge North Economic Development Distri
Adding to the confusion, the debate is still purely theoretical, as no developers have yet applied to participate so officials have not yet seen a test case.
Advocate staff writers David J. Mitchell and Steve Hardy contributed to this article.
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Ascension Parish president schmoozes with council, dodges press after indictment - The Advocate
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Around Ascension for April 6, 2017 – The Advocate
Posted: at 9:09 pm
Vegetable garden contest
The Ascension Parish LSU Agricultural Center, Ascension Farm Bureau and Ascension Master Gardeners Home Vegetable Garden Contest for adults and 4-H youth will be held in May. Judging will be conducted in mid-May.
Categories are youth gardens, adult small home vegetable gardens (less than 1,000 square feet), adult medium gardens (1,000 to 3,500 square feet) and adult large gardens (more than 3,500 square feet). Prizes will be awarded to the winners of each category.
All gardens must have at least four different types of vegetables. Only Ascension Parish gardens are eligible.
Call Craig Roussel at (225) 621-5799 no later than April 28 to enter and for details.
The Ascension Council on Agings annual Spring Fling Easter Party for Ascension seniors ages 60 and older begins at 9:30 a.m. April 13 at the Gonzales Senior Center. Lunch will be served at noon.
Contests will be held for the prettiest and most creative hats in the Easter parade, with prizes going to the best hats. There also will be an Easter egg hunt and entertainment.
Reservations are due by Friday; call Missa at (225) 621-5750.
Children ages 7 and younger and their families can put on their favorite pajamas for a dinosaur story time at Ascension Parish Librarys Donaldsonville and Dutchtown branches on Tuesday and Gonzales on April 13. All story times begin at 6:30 p.m.
Story times also include songs and the making of a giant dinosaur woven mat children can take home.
Dr. Sean DeBarros, of St. Elizabeth Physicians, is the speaker at a free community health series at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at Rouses Market, 14635 U.S. 61, Gonzales.
DeBarros will talk about insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and effective behavioral and lifestyle changes to prevent diabetes and risk of complications.
Registration is required. Call the Rouses concierge desk at (225) 673-4255 or St. Elizabeth Hospital at (225) 621-2906.
Our Loss Lambs, a support group for those who have lost children, will meet the third Monday of each month at First United Methodist Church of Gonzales, 224 W. Constitution St. Its first meeting will be at 6:30 p.m. April 17.
Meetings will be held in the administrative conference room in the building next to the church sanctuary building. Call the church office at (225) 647-4678 for details.
Also, St. Elizabeth Hospitals loss and grief support group meets at 6 p.m. every Thursday at the hospitals Sister Linda conference room. The group is intended for those who have experienced a loss of any kind.
Contact Darlene Denstorff by phone, (225) 336-6952 or (225) 603-1996; fax, (225) 644-5851; or email, ascension@theadvocate.com or ddenstorff@theadvocate.com. Deadline: noon Monday.
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Ascension Becomes First North American Authorized Training Partner for Blue Prism – Business Wire (press release)
Posted: at 9:09 pm
INDIANAPOLIS & AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ascension, the nations largest Catholic and non-profit healthcare system, has been selected as the first organization in North America authorized to train companies on a leading robotic process automation solution Blue Prisms Robotic Process Automation (RPA) software.
Ascensions Intelligent Process Automation team was one of the continents first adopters of Blue Prisms solution, and now it is the companys first authorized training partner on the continent. This accreditation will help Ascension drive adoption and promote best practices in RPA, especially in the healthcare industry.
Ascension has a long track record of delivering RPA solutions that meet the toughest security and compliance requirements, said Neil Wright, Global Head of Professional Services at Blue Prism. Were partnering with Ascension to enable digital transformation for our healthcare clients in North America.
Blue Prisms RPA software is changing the way work gets done by automating manual, repetitive tasks. This reduction of administrative burden is improving process efficiency and effectiveness, while reducing costs and improving customer experience. The solution leverages the cognitive ability of people as opposed to building processes around technology.
Its been an exciting journey with Blue Prism, as we have gone from client to value-added resale partner and now an authorized training partner, said Lee Coulter, senior vice president of Ascension and chief executive officer of Ascensions shared service subsidiary, based in Indianapolis. We have worked closely with the Blue Prism team over the last several years to develop training for our own associates are now helping others train teams and implement automation solutions.
Within months of launching its first automation, Ascension demonstrated substantial return on investment and improved customer experience. Blue Prism practitioners in Ascensions shared service subsidiary now provide automation tools training, consulting, and digital labor management to other organizations seeking business transformation. A trusted early adopter of robotic process automation, Ascension has advanced from pioneer to thought leader. A contributing member in the development of standards for RPA in conjunction with the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Ascension brings transformational as well as practical experience to its engagements.
About Blue Prism Blue Prism Robotic Process Automation (RPA) software delivers the worlds most successful digital workforce, which has executed over 1 billion transactions in our customers datacenters. Blue Prism (AIM:PRSM) is trusted by a diverse range of highly successful organizations to operate in some of the most demanding administrative environments. Blue Prisms RPA software delivers a digital workforce for the enterprise to eliminate high-risk, manual, rules-based, repetitive tasks and execute business processes at scale to improve organizational efficiency and effectiveness whilst radically reducing operating costs. Blue Prism provides a scalable and robust execution platform for best of breed AI and cognitive technologies and has emerged as the trusted and proven RPA platform for the digital enterprise. Customers include BNY Mellon, Commerzbank, Nordea, ING, Westpac, Zurich, Aegon, Maersk, Siemens, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Nokia. With offices in Manchester, London, Miami, Chicago, New York and San Francisco, Blue Prism is listed on the London Stock Exchange AIM market. For more information visitwww.blueprism.com and follow the company onLinkedInand Twitter.
About Ascension Ascension (www.ascension.org) is a faith-based healthcare organization dedicated to transformation through innovation across the continuum of care. As the largest non-profit health system in the U.S. and the worlds largest Catholic health system, Ascension is committed to delivering compassionate, personalized care to all, with special attention to persons living in poverty and those most vulnerable. In FY2016, Ascension provided more than $1.8 billion in care of persons living in poverty and other community benefit programs. Ascension includes approximately 150,000 associates and 36,000 aligned providers. Ascensions Healthcare Division operates 2,500 sites of care including 141 hospitals and more than 30 senior living facilities in 24 states and the District of Columbia, while its Solutions Division provides a variety of services and solutions including physician practice management, venture capital investing, investment management, biomedical engineering, clinical care management, information services, risk management, and contracting through Ascensions own group purchasing organization. For more information, visit http://www.ascension.org/IPA.
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Ascension Veterans Association accepting scholarship applications – The Advocate
Posted: at 9:09 pm
The Ascension Veterans Associations is accepting applications to its third annual scholarship program.
Applications must be postmarked no later than May 15, a news release said.
Scholarships are given in honor of area Americans and troop supporters and focus on exemplary civic service and patriotic ideology, the release said.
The organization will award a minimum of four scholarships of $1,000 each for the 2017-18 academic year. Previous applicants are welcome to apply again.
Eligible applicants include dependent children, grandchildren or spouses of an honorably discharged veteran, current service member or service member killed while serving in the military. This year, the dependent child category also has been opened to those who have an immediate family member who served or is serving honorably discharged veterans, a news release said. Current grandchildren or step-grandchildren of an honorably discharged veteran or current service member are eligible to apply, as well.
Applicants must be residents of Ascension Parish. Those who attend school outside the parish, who have graduated from a public or private Ascension school and current Ascension seniors, public or private, are eligible to apply. Applicants must have or have had at least a 2.5 GPA on a 4.0 scale.
Current Ascension high school seniors can pick up packets from their high school counselor. Other interested applicants can email Scholarship Chairwoman Tanya Whitney at msgwhitney@gmail.com or call (225) 612-0805 or (256) 656-2124.
Scholarship recipients will be honored at the Ascension Veterans Associations annual Musical Tribute for Our Troops on June 16.
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Ascension Veterans Association accepting scholarship applications - The Advocate
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New leader takes the helm at Ascension – Simi Valley Acorn
Posted: at 9:09 pm
PEOPLE PERSONThe Rev. Tim Delkeskamp has been named senior pastor of Ascension Lutheran Church in Thousand Oaks. He was installed March 19 at the church on E. Hillcrest Drive. The minister had served as associate pastor at the church since 2003. At left he is shown in September, teaching children about showing gratitude to first responders. Courtesy of Ascension Lutheran Church Newbury Park resident Timm Sinclair sat in a Woodland Hills hospital room with his 78-yearold mother, Diana, as she suffered from pneumonia and complications from Parkinsons disease. During that painful visit, as the woman clung to life, Sinclair was surprised to see a friendly face enter the room: It was Tim Delkeskamp, associate pastor at Ascension Lutheran Church, where Diana faithfully attended services.
The pastor had dropped by on his own to visit and offer the dying woman communion. Before Sinclair and Delkeskamp left the room together, the pastor gave Diana Sinclair some parting words of comfort.
Youre in my thoughts and prayers, he said. I want you to know that you are loved.
Timm Sinclair said hell always be grateful to Delkeskamp for the care he showed to his mother that day.
It was a beautiful moment, said Sinclair, an employee of the Acorn Newspapers. I had no idea that would be the last time I was able to talk with her.
His mother died two days later. In the weeks that followed, the minister met with Sinclair to help him through the grief.
Stories like this are often repeated about Delkeskamp, who is now the new senior pastor at Ascension Lutheran Church in Thousand Oaks.
The 47-year-old was chosen in February after a nationwide search by the 1,686-member congregation.
The father of three was installed by Bishop Guy Erwin in a March 19 ceremony at the chapel on E. Hillcrest Drive.
One thing drives his ministry, Delkeskamp said.
Its people. I love working with people.
Road to Ascension
When Delkeskamp decided to double major in religion and business at California Lutheran University in 1988, his choice was met with skepticism.
Some people thought I aspired to be a televangelist, he said.
The Brea, Calif., native had completed half of his degree requirements when he became bored with business and came to a realization.
This doesnt give me life, he said.
He started taking more religion classes, which pointed him in the direction of thinking about his own faith.
So after graduation, the 22-year-old took a temporary job at a church to earn money to backpack around the world. As he traveled the Middle East, Europe and Africa, he spent time in daily prayer and contemplation seeking Gods call in his life.
His prayers were answered. When he returned home after one year, he enrolled in Luther Seminary in St. Paul, Minn., where he earned his master of divinity degree.
After a fiveyear stint at a church in Mission Viejo, Delkeskamp took the job as associate pastor at Ascension in 2003.
Well-rounded
Church is a family affair for Delkeskamp. His wife, Chamie, teaches religious curriculum at Ascensions private school, which includes transitional kindergarten through eighth grade.
Husband and wife both work at Ascension, but denominationally, the Delkeskamps are a house divided. While the Rev. Delkeskamp is a dyed-in-the-wool Lutheran, his wife is Methodist.
We have some great theological discussions, the pastor said The more I try to persuade her to be Lutheran, the more Methodist she becomes.
Church secretary Myra Chandler said the vote to confirm Delkeskamp was easy after 13 years of seeing him perform as associate pastor.
The whole congregation is very, very happy hes our senior pastor, she said.
Delkeskamp said he looks for- ward to expanding the churchs outreach locally and globally.
We feel God has put us in this community for a reason, he said. To help us serve our community, to help us introduce Jesus to others and to create opportunities for all people to become devoted followers of Christ.
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Who is afraid of AI? – The Hindu
Posted: at 9:09 pm
Who is afraid of AI? The Hindu Indeed, in the book 'Superintelligence' by the philosopher Nick Bostrom, he observes that a superintelligence might not only be dangerous, it could represent an existential threat to all of humanitysuch systems will eventually have such an insatiable ... |
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The Nonparametric Intuition: Superintelligence and Design Methodology – Lifeboat Foundation (blog)
Posted: at 9:09 pm
I will admit that I have been distracted from both popular discussion and the academic work on the risks of emergent superintelligence. However, in the spirit of an essay, let me offer some uninformed thoughts on a question involving such superintelligence based on my experience thinking about a different area. Hopefully, despite my ignorance, this experience will offer something new or at least explain one approach in a new way.
The question about superintelligence I wish to address is the paperclip universe problem. Suppose that an industrial program, aimed with the goal of maximizing the number of paperclips, is otherwise equipped with a general intelligence program as to tackle with this objective in the most creative ways, as well as internet connectivity and text information processing facilities so that it can discover other mechanisms. There is then the possibility that the program does not take its current resources as appropriate constraints, but becomes interested in manipulating people and directing devices to cause paperclips to be manufactured without consequence for any other objective, leading in the worse case to widespread destruction but a large number of surviving paperclips.
This would clearly be a disaster. The common response is to take as a consequence that when we specify goals to programs, we should be much more careful about specifying what those goals are. However, we might find it difficult to formulate a set of goals that dont admit some kind of loophole or paradox that, if pursued with mechanical single-mindedness, are either similarly narrowly destructive or self-defeating.
Suppose that, instead of trying to formulate a set of foolproof goals, we should find a way to admit to the program that the set of goals weve described is not comprehensive. We should aim for the capacity to add new goals with a procedural understanding that the list may never be complete. If done well, we would have a system that would couple this initial set of goals to the set of resources, operations, consequences, and stakeholders initially provided to it, with an understanding that those goals are only appropriate to the initial list and finding new potential means requires developing a richer understanding of potential ends.
How can this work? Its easy to imagine such an algorithmic admission leading to paralysis, either from finding contradictory objectives that apparently admit no solution or an analysis/paralysis which perpetually requires no undiscovered goals before proceeding. Alternatively, stated incorrectly, it could backfire, with finding more goals taking the place of making more paperclips as it proceeds singlemindedly to consume resources. Clearly, a satisfactory superintelligence would need to reason appropriately about the goal discovery process.
There is a profession that has figured out a heuristic form of reasoning about goal discovery processes: designers. Designers have coined the phrase the fuzzy front end when talking about the very early stages of a project before anyone has figured out what it is about. Designers engage in low-cost elicitation exercises with a variety of stakeholders. They quickly discover who the relevant stakeholders are and what impacts their interventions might have. Adept designers switch back and forth rapidly from candidate solutions to analyzing the potential impacts of those designs, making new associations about the area under study that allows for further goal discovery. As designers undertake these explorations, they advise going slightly past the apparent wall of diminishing returns, often using an initial brainstorming session to reveal all of the obvious ideas before undertaking a deeper analysis. Seasoned designers develop an understanding when stakeholders are holding back and need to be prompted, or when equivocating stakeholders should be encouraged to move on. Designers will interleave a series of prototypes, experiential exercises, and pilot runs into their work, to make sure that interventions really behave the way their analysis seems to indicate.
These heuristics correspond well to an area of statistics and machine learning called nonparametric Bayesian inference. Nonparametric does not mean that there are no parameters, but instead that the parameters are not given, and that inferring that there are further parameters is part of the task. Suppose that you were to move to a new town, and ask around about the best restaurant. The first answer would definitely be new, but as one asked more, eventually you would start getting new answers more rarely. The likelihood of a given answer would also begin to converge. In some cases the answers will be more concentrated on a few answers, and in some cases the answers will be more dispersed. In either case, once we have an idea of how concentrated the answers are, we might see that a particular period of not discovering new answers might just be unlucky and that we should pursue further inquiry.
Asking why provides a list of critical features that can be used to direct different inquiries that fill out the picture. Whats the best restaurant in town for Mexican food? Which is best at maintaining relationships to local food providers/has the best value for money/is the tastiest/has the most friendly service? Designers discover aspects about their goals in an open-ended way, that allows discovery to act in quick cycles of learning through taking on different aspects of the problem. This behavior would work very well for an active learning formulation of relational nonparametric inference.
There is a point at which information gathering activities are less helpful at gathering information than attending to the feedback to activities that more directly act on existing goals. This happens when there is a cost/risk equilibrium between the cost of more discovery activities and the risk of making an intervention on incomplete information. In many circumstances, the line between information gathering and direct intervention will be fuzzier, as exploration proceeds through reversible or inconsequential experiments, prototypes, trials, pilots, and extensions that gather information while still pursuing the goals found so far.
From this perspective, many frameworks for assessing engineering discovery processes make a kind of epistemological error: they assess the quality of the solution from the perspective of the information that they have gathered, paying no attention to the rates and costs which that information was discovered, and whether or not the discovery process is at equilibrium. This mistake comes from seeing the problems as finding a particular point in a given search space of solutions, rather than taking the search space as a variable requiring iterative development. A superintelligence equipped to see past this fallacy would be unlikely to deliver us a universe of paperclips.
Having said all this, I think the nonparametric intuition, while right, can be cripplingly misguided without being supplemented with other ideas. To consider discovery analytically is to not discount the power of knowing about the unknown, but it doesnt intrinsically value non-contingent truths. In my next essay, I will take on this topic.
For a more detailed explanation and an example of how to extend engineering design assessment to include nonparametric criteria, see The Methodological Unboundedness of Limited Discovery Processes. Form Academisk, 7:4.
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These Are the Wildly Advanced Space Exploration Concepts Being Considered by NASA – Gizmodo
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Under a plan proposed by Stephanie Thomas of Princeton Satellite Systems, Inc., NASA could be returning to Pluto. (Image: NASA/JPL/New Horizons)
Earlier today, NASA announced funding for 22 projects as part of its Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program. From a planet hopping laser-driven sail and a solar powered Venusian weather balloon to an autonomous rover on Pluto, the future of space exploration looks incredibly bright.
To keep the pipeline moving for space exploration concepts, NASA regularly entertains pitches via its NIAC program. For a concept to receive final approval and funding, it has to go through two phases of attrition. Teams granted Phase I status receive $125,000, and theyre given nine months to refine their designs and explore various aspects of implementing their crazy-ass schemes. A peer review process vetts these proposals, and a lucky few get to reach second base. Phase II teams receive as much as $500,000 to embark upon two-year projects, allowing them to further develop their plans. Phase II plans are then chosen according to their demonstrated feasibility and benefit.
Today, NASA announced 15 new Phase I concepts and seven new Phase II concepts (we provided the complete list at the end of this article). Here are a few that grabbed our attention.
NASA has given the greenlight to not one but two Phase I concepts that could set the stage for interstellar space travel. Of note is the Interstellar Precursor Mission headed by NASA JPL scientist John Brophy. His idea would see the construction of an orbiting 100 megawatt laser array with a diameter of six miles (10 km). The array would convert the massive laser power into electrical energy, generating enough power to enable long-distance travel of a conventionally-sized spacecraft on a reasonable timescale.
We propose a new power/propulsion architecture to enable missions such as a 12-year flight time to 500 AU [where 1 AU equals the average distance of the Earth to the Sun]...with a conventional (i.e., New Horizons sized) spacecraft, explains Brophy at his project page. This architecture would also enable orbiter missions to Pluto with the same sized spacecraft in just 3.6 years. Significantly, this same architecture could deliver an 80-metric-ton payload to Jupiter orbit in one year, opening the possibility of human missions to Jupiter.
Armed with similar technology, NASA could start to roll out laser-based propulsion systems that could travel to nearby stars, but were getting a bit ahead of ourselves.
Other interesting phase I concepts include a plan to detoxify Martian soil for agriculture, a system that would literally tether a spacecraft to Mars moon Phobos, and a plan called Solar Surfing, which presumably involves a light-driven spacecraft.
Among NASAs chosen Phase II concepts is the Venus Interior Probe project spearheaded by Ratnakumar Bugga, also with NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This proposed probe would drift through Venus clouds while tethered to a balloon, collecting valuable data on temperature, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. Conventional batteries would allow for a scant one to two hours of life, but under this plan, the probe would continually recharge its batteries using solar energy.
Excitingly, under a Phase II plan envisaged by Stephanie Thomas of Princeton Satellite Systems, Inc., NASA could be returning to Pluto. But unlike the whiplash New Horizons flyby mission, this plan calls for a stop at the dwarf planet.
Using a game changing Direct Fusion Drive (DFD), a spacecraft would travel to Pluto equipped with an orbiter and a lander. Under the plan, the craft would arrive at Pluto in just four to five years (it took New Horizons nearly a decade to make the same journey). A major challenge will be in figuring out a way to decelerate the spacecraft once it gets to Pluto, where it will release its 2,200 pounds (1,000 kg) worth of cargo.
Since DFD provides power as well as propulsion in one integrated device, it will also provide as much as 2 MW of power to the payloads upon arrival, says Thomas at her NASA project page. This enables high-bandwidth communication, powering of the lander from orbit, and radically expanded options for instrument design. She added: The data acquired by New Horizons recent Pluto flyby is just a tiny fraction of the scientific data that could be generated from an orbiter and lander.
Sadly, not all of these concepts will be approved. The Pluto plan, for example, may be too technologically demanding given the hypothetical nature of the fusion drive. For those plans that are approved, it could still take ten years or more before the projects are complete and ready for liftoff.
Here are all the projects approved by NASA today:
The selected 2017 Phase I proposals:
The selected 2017 Phase II proposals:
[NASA]
George is a contributing editor at Gizmodo and io9.
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