Monthly Archives: March 2017

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is reportedly considering skipping a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels next month, in a nearly unprecedented move that baffled many in the foreign-policy community.

Tillerson would miss meetings in Brussels from April 5 to 6 to stay in Washington and travel with President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Trump's private club in Palm Beach, Fla. Xi is visiting the United States for the first time since Trump took office, though Tillerson already met Xi during his visit to China last week.

A State Department spokesperson backtracked after news broke Monday night, saying they may consider working on alternative dates, but nothing was confirmed yet. A former U.S. official and NATO diplomat told Reuters, which first reported the story, that NATO quietly offered to move the dates to fit what would be Tillerson's first Brussels visit on his schedule. The official said the State Department initially declined the offer.

It is highly unusual for a U.S. secretary to skip NATO ministerial meetings, which are held separately for foreign and defense ministers several times a year. The last secretary of state to miss a foreign ministerial was Colin Powell, who canceled his ministerial attendance last-minute during the start of the Iraq war in 2003.

The decision could worry allies already rattled by Trump's NATO skepticism and potential Russia ties. It also starves Tillerson of an opportunity to repair growing rifts in U.S.-European relations after several clumsy diplomatic blunders from the White House.

Another meeting reportedly on Tillerson's itinerary could add fuel to the fire: The secretary of state is slated to visit Moscow within weeks of the NATO foreign ministerial he could skip.

Lawmakers and former officials expressed shock and dismay at the news. "This sends a terrible message to Europe," a former senior Pentagon official told Foreign Policy. "And yes it signals that [Tillerson] is ready to talk to Russia before he talks to NATO."

The news of Tillerson's itinerary emerged a day after FBI Director James Comey confirmed for the first time the bureau was investigating ties between the Kremlin and Trump's inner circle in its Russian election interference probe.

"In my many years of working NATO ministerials, any time there was a schedule problem we always worked around it," Jim Townsend, the former top Pentagon official on NATO under President Barack Obama, told Foreign Policy. "Not all ministers show up all the time, it's not like it's unheard of for most countries. But for the United States it is a huge deal because we lead the alliance," he said.

U.S. Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D- N.Y.), ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called the move an "absolute disgrace."

"I cannot fathom why the administration would pursue this course except to signal a change in American foreign policy that draws our country away from western democracy's most important institutions and aligns the United States more closely with the autocratic regime in the Kremlin," Engel said Tuesday.

NATO has convened defense and foreign ministerial meetings since the early days of the Cold War. The meetings are one of the only semi-regular venues for European ministers to get face-time with their American counterparts. They're also a critical mechanism for getting things done in the NATO bureaucracy, Townsend said. "It drove us to put down on paper alliance positions and hash out agreements and actions," he said.

And in April, NATO leaders have a lot to hash out: major new troop deployments to the Baltic States to deter Russia, disintegrating European relations with fellow NATO ally Turkey, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, the NATO mission in Afghanistan, and key priorities for NATO's upcoming head of state summit in May.

Tillerson is also grappling with several White House-induced scandals that undermine Washington's footing with NATO allies. After Trump's rocky meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on March 17, he took to Twitter to claim Berlin "owed" NATO and Washington money for its NATO dues. Germany rebuked Trump's claims Sunday, clarifying that's not how NATO defense spending works. White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer also infuriated British intelligence services after he accused them of spying on Trump at the behest of former President Barack Obama. In an unusual public statement, Britain's signals intelligence service slapped down the claims as "utterly ridiculous." During congressional testimony Monday, National Security Agency chief Mike Rogers said the White House's unsubstantiated claims "clearly frustrates allies of ours."

Tillerson's move was likely a combination of the Trump administration spurning NATO and scheduling errors in an understaffed State Department, Townsend said. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who knows a thing or two about the Herculean task of managing the top U.S. diplomat's schedule, agreed. "I think it's a most unfortunate signal," Albright said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on a separate subject on Tuesday. "I would blame it on schedulers. I do think that is part of the problem. He will have met with a lot of ministers in other venues, but given the discussion that's going on about NATO, I think it's an unfortunate scheduling problem."

A State Department official told FP Tillerson will be meeting with 26 of 27 other NATO countries' foreign ministers in Washington on Wednesday -- all but Croatia -- to discuss the ongoing anti-Islamic State coalition in Iraq and Syria. The official added Tom Shannon, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, will represent the United States at the NATO meeting in April if Tillerson doesn't attend. (Trump has yet to nominate a deputy secretary of state despite being two months into office.)

But NATO experts say that isn't enough. "Meeting with [foreign ministers] at the Anti-ISIS coalition gathering or a G-20 does nothing for NATO, an organization that is earnestly seeking U.S. guidance on how to adjust its agenda," a Republican foreign policy expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told FP.

In February, both Defense Secretary James Mattis and Vice President Mike Pence visited Brussels -- though Mattis used the trip to issue a veiled ultimatum to allies to pony up on defense spending.

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Tillerson plan to skip NATO meeting baffles former officials - Chicago Tribune

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U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at Germany over its lack of military spending Saturday, and figures show the countryhas contributed $209.7 billion below the 2 percent of GDP required of NATO members since 2009.

Trump said Germany owes NATO and the U.S. vast sums of money for defense in a series of tweets following his Friday meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen quicklyrejected the claim, saying, There is no account where debts are registered with NATO.

While NATO doesnt keep a debt account for each member state, and the 2 percent pledge wasnt agreed upon until 2014, the alliance loses more$20 billion in German military spending each year.

The total gross domestic product in Germany since the start of 2009 is approximately $28.5 trillion, according to NATO figures. During these eight years, Germany spent about $359.8 billion on its military. The average defense expenditure per year is around 1.27 percent of total GDP.

If Germany met NATOs 2 percent target each year, it wouldhave racked up $569.5 billion since 2009, leaving a $209.7 billion gap in funding.

Defense Expenditure in million U.S. dollars (2010 prices and exchange rates)

Germany is far from alone.Out of the alliances 28 members, just five meet the spending goal. (RELATED: When The NATO Bill Hits The Table, These Are The Countries Who Hesitate To Reach For The Wallet)

Von der Leyen recently called on NATO to revise itsspending criteria and instead measure contributions through an activity index.

Participation in NATO operations and contributions in personnel and hardware are examples of areas where Germany suggests countries can make up for a lack of defense spending while still meeting their obligations.

The Merkel administrationhas made a recent push to revitalize the German military and fulfill its NATO obligations, announcing a number of new defense initiatives with France, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania and the Czech Republic.

Obligations have to be fulfilled, Merkel said at a campaign rally Feb. 25. And, others in the world will demand that of us. And, I think theyre right that Germany must uphold its obligations.

The German army hopes to add 5,000 soldiers by 2024, but the increase would only cost $1.03 billion extra per year.

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If Germany Did Actually Owe NATO, The Amount Would Be Staggering [Graph] - Daily Caller

Russia may be supplying Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, the top US commander in Europe has said.

Army General Curtis Scaparrotti, who is also Nato's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told a senate hearing he had seen Russian influence on Afghan Taliban insurgents growing.

"I've seen the influence of Russia of late increased influence in terms of association and perhaps even supply to the Taliban," Mr Scaparotti said.

It comes after Taliban fighters captured the strategic district of Sangin in the southern Afghan province of Helmand after security forces pulled out, officials said.

Helmand, which accounts for the bulk of Afghanistan's billion dollar opium crop, is already largely in the hands of the Taliban but the capture of Sangin, where USand British forces once suffered heavy casualties, underlines their growing strength in the south.

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Russia may be supplying Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, says Nato Supreme Commander - The Independent

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Lockheed Martin CEO Predicts $100 Billion Increase in NATO Defense Spending (LMT) Investopedia The influence of President Donald Trump is forcing NATO member nations to increase their defense spending, said Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) CEO Marillyn Hewson in a conversation with CNBC. (See also: European NATO Members Increase Defense ... Lockheed Martin CEO is seeing a 'Trump effect' as NATO members boost defense spendingCNBC all 50 news articles »

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Lockheed Martin CEO Predicts $100 Billion Increase in NATO Defense Spending (LMT) - Investopedia

NATO's top general is siding with Sen. John McCain in a spat over whether the U.S. should vote to allow the tiny country of Montenegro to joint the alliance.

U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, who is NATO's supreme military commander, testified Thursday that it was "absolutely crucial" that Montenegro be granted NATO membership.

"If we were to lose this, it would set back many of the other countries, and people, particularly in eastern Europe that are looking forward to, and have their eyes set on the West," Scaparrotti said

McCain is in a public and acrimonious fight with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who objects to Montenegro's bid to join NATO, and is blocking an expedited Senate vote that would add the U.S. to the 26 NATO nations supporting Montenegro's bid to join the 28-nation alliance.

"There has to be the thought whether or not it's in our national interest to pledge to get involved with a war if Montenegro has an altercation with anyone," Paul said on MSNBC last week. "Whenever there's a war fought, our soldiers fight it and our dollars pay for it. And so the 45 soldiers that Montenegro has I think are hardly an asset to our national security," Paul said.

"Our decisions need to be about our national security, and so I just don't think it enhances our national security to have Montenegro part of NATO."

Paul's legislative maneuver, which would force a time-consuming roll call vote, infuriated McCain last week, who then berated Paul on the Senate floor.

"That is really remarkable that a senator, blocking a treaty that is supported by the overwhelming number, perhaps 98, at least, of his colleagues, would come to the floor and object and walk away," McCain said, then adding a final zinger, "The senator from Kentucky is now working for Vladimir Putin,"

Paul responded to McCain's vitriol in the MSNBC interview the next day. "I think he makes a really, really strong case for term limits," Paul said. "I think maybe he's past his prime; I think maybe he's gotten a little bit unhinged."

Also from the Washington Examiner

GOP lawmaker said there was a 50-50 chance of a vote coming up Thursday night or early Friday morning.

By Robert King, Nicole Duran

03/23/17 1:22 PM

Scaparrotti testified Thursday that Putin, who opposes Montenegro's membership, has already told his inner circle that while he may have lost Montenegro, "there won't be another one."

Amid questions about whether the Trump administration would stand up to Moscow, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson sent a letter to Senate leaders this month saying that admitting Montenegro is "strongly in the interests of the United States."

Tillerson called for the Senate to act before the NATO summit in May so that Montenegro may take a seat as a full member.

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NATO general sides with John McCain against Rand Paul over Montenegro - Washington Examiner

Sen. Rand PaulRand PaulHealthcare fight pits Trump against Club for Growth GOP rep: Trump could be 'one-term president' if healthcare bill passes Overnight Defense: Pentagon chief urges Congress to approve budget boost | Senate fight over NATO addition MORE is drawing the ire of his colleagues by being the lone holdout on a treaty allowing Montenegro to have membership in NATO.

The Kentucky Republican says it is in the United States best interest to keep the small Eastern European country out of the alliance, but some of his colleagues think he is playing a leverage game with Senate leadership.

Tensions surrounding the issue boiled over on the Senate floor last week when Paul blocked Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCainJohn McCainFortune's 'Greatest Leaders' list includes Samantha Bee, snubs Trump McCain: Nunes's actions 'very disturbing' McCain calls North Korean leader a 'crazy, fat kid' MORE (R-Ariz.) from bringing up a vote on the treaty.

Paul responded a day later, calling the 80-year-old McCain unhinged.

I think he makes a really, really strong case for term limits, Paul said Thursday on MSNBC. I think maybe he's past his prime.

Pauls office also released a statement that said it is unwise to allow Montenegro into NATO because it would add to Americas military burden.

Currently, the United States has troops in dozens of countries and is actively fighting in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen (with the occasional drone strike in Pakistan), his office wrote following McCains accusation. In addition, the United States is pledged to defend 28 countries in NATO. It is unwise to expand the monetary and military obligations of the United States given the burden of our $20 trillion debt.

One Republican senator who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Paul blocked the treaty because he wants a floor vote on the 2016 authorization for use of military force (AUMF) that former President Obama used to launch the ongoing military campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Paul has spoken out at length about the need to review, reform or repeal the AUMF, which allows the president to decide how and when to go to war with another nation with little congressional input or involvement.

Hes always been isolationist against anything the United States has ever done, the senator said. Theres a certain element in the Republican Party that is very isolationist, Im sure hes representing that.

The ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben CardinBen CardinRand Paul roils the Senate with NATO blockade Lawmakers want Trump commitment to help Iraq post-ISIS Trump's budget revealed his priorities. Now the fun begins. MORE (Md.), told The Hill that Paul held up the NATO vote to get something considerable."

Cardin who had joined McCain on the floor to push for a debate and vote on the treaty before Paul blocked the measure said his fellow senators are upset with the stall tactics.

He added that Paul was in talks with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob CorkerBob CorkerRand Paul roils the Senate with NATO blockade Lawmakers want Trump commitment to help Iraq post-ISIS Trump needs a united front to win overseas MORE (R-Tenn.) to work out a compromise on the issue.

Corkers office did not respond to request for comment.

Reuters reported Tuesday that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged the Senate to vote on ratifying Montenegro as a NATO member in a letter to leadership dated March 7.

He called for a floor vote on the issue before a NATO summit in a few months.

"Montenegro's participation in the May NATO Summit as full member, not as an observer, will send a strong signal of transatlantic unity," Tillerson wrote. "It is strongly in the interests of the United States that Montenegro's membership in NATO be ratified.

Montenegro, a tiny nation north of Greece in the Balkans, has attempted to join NATO for more than seven years. The move has the support of the Pentagon and State Department, as well 25 of the 28 NATO member nations, as Russia has attempted to hold sway in the country in the last several years.

The issue came up again Tuesday during a Senate Armed Services Hearing, when former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow testified that Russia sponsored an armed coup d'etat in Montenegro last year to derail the country's accession to NATO.

Vershbow said allowing Montenegro into the alliance would set an example that countries that do their do their homework, meet the criteria, contribute to stability in their neighborhood can become members of NATO, even if they don't bring a huge amount of defense capability to the alliance.

McCain, who spoke to The Hill following the hearing, said Pauls delay remains severely unhelpful as far as the situation is concerned.

Despite the frustration, one lawmaker said it is not all in Pauls hands to block the treaty.

Sen. Chris MurphyChris MurphyRand Paul roils the Senate with NATO blockade Lawmakers want Trump commitment to help Iraq post-ISIS Ten years later, House Dems reunite and look forward MORE (D-Conn.) suggested it was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellMcConnells gambit to save the Supreme Court paid off Overnight Healthcare: High drama for ObamaCare vote | Freedom Caucus chair 'optimistic' about deal | Trump woos right High drama for ObamaCare vote MORE (R-Ky.) who was stalling the vote and called the idea that Paul alone was stopping Montenegros NATO treaty fiction.

Theres no rule that says NATO enlargement needs 100 votes, so bring it up for a debate, Murphy told The Hill. McConnell doesnt need to give [Paul] anything. He is stopping Montenegro from joining NATO because all he has to do is schedule a vote. It would take a day, maybe. Schedule a vote, get this done with, itll be 99 to 1.

A spokesman for McConnell said the senator is supportive of Montenegro joining NATO and has not scheduled a debate on the issue because it requires all 100 senators to consent.

But Murphy disagreed.

Every day that the Senate doesnt act on adding Montenegro to NATO is a gift to the Russians, Murphy said. So schedule a vote and stop blaming it on Rand Paul.

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Rand Paul roils the Senate with NATO blockade - The Hill