Daily Archives: March 1, 2017

How would NATO hold up in an all-out war against Russia? Rand Wargame found that Russian forces could quickly overwhelm NATO forces currently protecting Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia

How much of a threat do Russia's emerging 5th-generation stealth fighter, nuclear arsenal, high-tech air defenses, anti-satellite weapons, conventional army and submarines pose to NATO and the U.S.?

Current tensions between Russia and NATO are leading many to carefully assess this question and examine the current state of weaponry and technological sophistication of the Russian military -- with a mind to better understanding the extent of the kinds of threats they may pose.

Naturally, Russias military maneuvers and annexation of the Crimean peninsula have many Pentagon analysts likely wondering about and assessing the pace of Russia's current military modernization and the relative condition of the former Cold War military giants forces, platforms and weaponry.

Russia has clearly postured itself in response to NATO as though it can counter-balance or deter the alliance, however some examinations of Russias current military reveals questions about its current ability to pose a real challenge to NATO in a prolonged, all-out military engagement.

Nevertheless, Russia continues to make military advances and many Pentagon experts and analysts have expressed concern about NATO's force posture in Eastern Europe regarding whether it is significant enough to deter Russia from a possible invasion of Eastern Europe.

Also, Russias economic pressures have not slowed the countries commitment to rapid military modernization and the increase of defense budgets, despite the fact that the countrys military is a fraction of what it was during the height of the Cold War in the 1980s.

While the former Cold War giants territories and outer most borders are sizeably less than they were in the 1980s, Russias conventional land, air and sea forces are trying to expand quickly, transition into the higher-tech information age and steadily pursue next generation platforms.

Russias conventional and nuclear arsenal is a small piece of what it was during the Cold War, yet the country is pursuing a new class of air-independent submarines, a T-50 stealth fighter jet, next-generation missiles and high-tech gear for individual ground soldiers.

A think-tank known asThe National Interesthas recently published a number of reports about the technological progress now being made by Russian military developers. The various write-ups include reporting on new Russian anti-satellite weapons, T-14 Armata tanks, air defenses and early plans for a hypersonic, 6th-generation fighter jet, among other things. Russia is unambiguously emphasizing military modernization and making substantial progress, the reports from The National Interest and other outlets indicate.

For instance, Russia hasapparently conducted a successful test launch of its Nudoldirect ascent anti-satellite missile, according to The National Interest.

"This is the second test of the new weapon, which is capable of destroying satellites in space. The weapon was apparently launched from the Plesetsk test launch facility north of Moscow," the report from The National Interest writes.

In addition, The National Interests' Dave Majumdar reported that Russian Airborne Forces plan six armored companies equipped with newly modifiedT-72B3M tanks. Over the next two years, those six companies will be expanded to battalion strength, the report states.

Russia is also reportedly developing a so-called "Terminator 3" tank support fighting vehicle.

.During the Cold War, the Russian defense budget amounted to nearly half of the countrys overall expenditures.

Now, the countries military spending draws upon a smaller percentage of its national expenditure. However, despite these huge percentage differences compared to the 1980s, the Russian defense budget is climbing again. From 2006 to 2009, the Russian defense budget jumped from $25 billion up to $50 billion according to Business Insider and the 2013 defense budget is listed elsewhere at $90 billion.

Overall, the Russian conventional military during the Cold War in terms of sheer size was likely five times what it is today.

The Russian military had roughly 766,000 active front line personnel in 2013 and as many as 2.4 million reserve forces, according toglobalfirepower.com. During the Cold War, the Russian Army had as many as three to four million members.

By the same 2013 assessment, the Russian military is listed as having more than 3,000 aircraft and 973 helicopters. On the ground, Globalfirepower.com says Russia has 15-thousand tanks, 27,000 armored fighting vehicles and nearly 6,000 self-propelled guns for artillery. While the Russian military may not have a conventional force the sheer size of its Cold War force, they have made efforts to both modernized and maintain portions of their mechanized weaponry and platforms. The Russian T-72 tank, for example, has been upgraded numerous times since its initial construction in the 1970s.

On the overall Naval front, Globalfirepower.com assesses the Russian Navy as having 352 ships, including one aircraft carrier, 13 destroyers and 63 submarines. The Black Sea is a strategically significant area for Russia in terms of economic and geopolitical considerations as it helps ensure access to the Mediterranean.

Analysts have also said that the Russian military made huge amounts of conventional and nuclear weapons in the 80s, ranging from rockets and cruise missiles to very effective air defenses.

In fact, the Russian built S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft air defenses, if maintained and modernized, are said to be particularly effective, experts have said.

Citing Russian news reports, the National Interest reported that the Russians are now testing a new, S-500 air defense systems able to reportedly reach targets up to 125 miles.

In the air, the Russian have maintained their 1980s built Su-27 fighter jets, which have been postured throughout strategic areas by the Russian military.

Often compared to the U.S. Air Forces F-15 Eagle fighter, the Su-27 is a maneuverable twin engine fighter built in the 1980s and primarily configured for air superiority missions.

Rand Wargame

While many experts maintain that NATOs size, fire-power, air supremacy and technology would ultimately prevail in a substantial engagement with Russia, that does not necessarily negate findings from a Rand study released last year explaining that NATO would be put in a terrible predicament should Russia invade the Baltic states.

NATO force structure in Eastern Europe in recent years would be unable to withstand a Russian invasion into neighboring Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the Rand study has concluded.

After conducting an exhaustive series of wargames wherein red (Russian) and blue (NATO) forces engaged in a wide range of war scenarios over the Baltic states, a Rand Corporation study called Reinforcing Deterrence on NATOs Eastern Flank determined that a successful NATO defense of the region would require a much larger air-ground force than what is currently deployed.

In particular, the study calls for a NATO strategy similar to the Cold War eras AirLand Battle doctrine from the 1980s. During this time, the U.S. Army stationed at least several hundred thousand troops in Europe as a strategy to deter a potential Russian invasion. Officials with U.S. Army Europe tell Scout Warrior that there are currenty 30,000 U.S. Army soldiers in Europe.

The Rand study maintains that, without a deterrent the size of at least seven brigades, fires and air support protecting Eastern Europe, that Russia cold overrun the Baltic states as quickly as in 60 hours.

As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours. Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, the study writes.

AirLand Battle was a strategic warfighting concept followed by U.S. and allied forces during the Cold War which, among other things, relied upon precise coordination between a large maneuvering mechanized ground force and attack aircraft overhead. As part of the approach, air attacks would seek to weaken enemy assets supporting front line enemy troops by bombing supply elements in the rear. As part of the air-ground integration, large conventional ground forces could then more easily advance through defended enemy front line areas.

A rapid assault on the Baltic region would leave NATO with few attractive options, including a massive risky counterattack, threatening a nuclear weapons option or simply allowing the Russian to annex the countries.

One of the limited options cited in the study could include taking huge amounts of time to mobilize and deploy a massive counterattack force which would likely result in a drawn-out, deadly battle. Another possibility would be to threaten a nuclear option, a scenario which seems unlikely if not completely unrealistic in light of the U.S. strategy to decrease nuclear arsenals and discourage the prospect of using nuclear weapons, the study finds.

A third and final option, the report mentions, would simply be to concede the Baltic states and immerse the alliance into a much more intense Cold War posture. Such an option would naturally not be welcomed by many of the residents of these states and would, without question, leave the NATO alliance weakened if not partially fractured.

The study spells out exactly what its wargames determined would be necessary as a credible, effective deterrent.

Gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigadesadequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilitiescould suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states, the study writes.

During the various scenarios explored for the wargame, its participants concluded that NATO resistance would be overrun quickly in the absence of a larger mechanized defensive force posture.

The absence of short-range air defenses in the U.S. units, and the minimal defenses in the other NATO units, meant that many of these attacks encountered resistance only from NATO combat air patrols, which were overwhelmed by sheer numbers. The result was heavy losses to several Blue (NATO) battalions and the disruption of the counterattack, the study states.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia could be likely Russian targets because all three countries are in close proximity to Russia and spent many years as part of the former Soviet Union, the study maintains.

Also like Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia are home to sizable ethnic Russian populations that have been at best unevenly integrated into the two countries post-independence political and social mainstreams and that give Russia a self-justification for meddling in Estonian and Latvian affairs, the study explains.

The Rand study maintained that, while expensive, adding brigades would be a worthy effort for NATO.

Buying three brand-new ABCTs and adding them to the U.S. Army would not be inexpensivethe up-front costs for all the equipment for the brigades and associated artillery, air defense, and other enabling units runs on the order of $13 billion. However, much of that gearespecially the expensive Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehiclesalready exists, the study says.

The actual NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe is something that is still under consideration and subject to change in this new administration. For quite some time, NATO and the US have been considering adding more troops to the Eastern flank as a way to further deter Russia.

The Pentagons European Reassurance Initiative, introduced last year, calls for additional funds, forces and force rotations through Europe in coming years, it is unclear what the force posture will ultimately be.

At the same time, the Pentagons $3.4 Billion ERI request does call for an increased force presence in Europe as well as fires, pre-positioned stocks and headquarters support for NATO forces.

Officials with U.S. Army Europe tell Scout Warrior that more solidarity exercises with NATO allies in Europe are also on the horizon, and that more manpower could also be on the way.

For example, NATO conducted Swift Response 16 from May 27 through June 26 of last year in Poland and Germany; it included more than 5,000 soldiers and airmen from the United States, Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain.

Read more:
How Much of a Military Threat Does Russia Pose to NATO and the US? - Scout

Ukraines navy is looking into the possibility of purchasing decommissioned NATO ships in order to add to its fleet, Ukraines Channel 5 reports.

Speaking on air, the navys commander, Ihor Voronchenko, said that to satisfy Ukraines role in occupying a significant portion of the Black Sea coastline, it should be better equipped to police these waters.

Ukraine is a transit state and we are obliged as naval forces to ensure the peaceful sailing of all vessels in the Black Sea, he said. We cannot fulfill the full spectrum of this work with only one minesweeper, Henichesk, that we obtained.

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Vice Admiral Ihor Voronchenko, commander of the Ukrainian Navy, speaks during an interview with Reuters in Kiev, Ukraine, October 27, 2016. He has just proposed using old NATO ships to boost Ukraine's coastal fleet. Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

The navy received the ship in question from the Black Sea Fleeta Crimea-based Soviet-era unit that in modern times existed under much facility-sharing between Ukraine, on whose territory the main port of the unit fell, and Russia. Henichesk was one of the handful of ships Ukraine received in the messy divorce between the two navies after Russias annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Voronchenko said a Ukrainian naval delegation recently returned from a NATO state that he was not authorized to name, where they discussed purchasing older Western ships to fill out Ukraines ranks.

Several options were looked at and we decided that for the resources that we have, we will be able to buy a mine-sweeping set, he said. The same (solution) is being worked on for acquiring ships for the coastal area.

Excerpt from:
Ukraine Looks Into Beefing Up Navy With Old NATO Ships - Newsweek

U.S. President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of the U.S. Congress on February 28 | Jim Lo Scalzo - Pool/Getty Images

Our partners must meet their financial obligations, Trump said.

By Nahal Toosi

3/1/17, 4:53 AM CET

Updated 3/1/17, 8:20 AM CET

Just in case any NATO members hadnt gotten the message, U.S. President Donald Trump said it once again Tuesday night: You need to pay up.

The Republican president, in his speech before a joint session of Congress, held firm to demands that other countries in the decades-old military alliance must spend more on defense and not simply count on the United States to cover for them.

We strongly support NATO, an alliance forged through the bonds of two World Wars that dethroned fascism, and a Cold War that defeated communism. But our partners must meet their financial obligations, Trump said. And now, based on our very strong and frank discussions, they are beginning to do just that.

He then ad-libbed: In fact, I can tell you the money is pouring in, very much.

He didnt offer details, but some NATO states have said since before Trump was elected that they were increasing their defense spending.

Trumps complaint about other NATO members not spending enough on defense is hardly unique to him. Even his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, urged other NATO members to stop relying so heavily on the United States to financially carry the military alliance.

Only a handful of NATOs 28 members meet the target of spending at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.

But despite his vows of support for NATO on Tuesday, Trump has often spoken of the alliance in highly dismissive terms, calling it obsolete and suggesting that the United States may not stick to its treaty obligations and come to the aid of fellow NATO members not paying their fair share.

That has deeply alarmed NATO members in Europe, who are increasingly wary of Russian aggression. Trumps insistence that the U.S. needs to improve its relationship with Moscow hasnt helped.

In what appeared to be a veiled reference to Russia, Trump on Tuesday said, America is willing to find new friends, and to forge new partnerships, where shared interests align.

We want peace, wherever peace can be found, he added later, noting. America is friends today with former enemies.

Continued here:
Trump demands other NATO members pay their fair share - POLITICO.eu

The Kremlin has revived its criticism of the U.S.-led intervention in Libya, days ahead of a possible visit by the war-torn north African countrys prime minister, state news agency Itar-Tass reports.

The NATO operation in 2011 toppled Libyan authoritarian leader Muammar al-Qaddafi quickly but the limited planning for rebuilding the country politically resulted in a collapse into civil war. Islamist extremist groups have risen to prominence in the country and ex-U.S. President Barack Obama pointed to the lack of planning as his worst mistake in his last year in office.

Russia was opposed to the move though did not block the resolution for an intervention in the United Nations Security Council. Regardless, Libya has become the Kremlins standard example of Western inadequacy in the Middle East. Monday Russian President Vladimir Putins spokesman gave yet another clue that Moscow intends to play a role in restoring a strong regime in the country.

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Fighters loyal to Libya's Government of National Unity (GNA) look through binoculars towards Sirte's conference centre, which had become a command headquarters for ISIS, July 18, 2016. Now ISIS has been overthrown in Sirte since December, Russia has indicated it would support Libya in its challenge to restore order to the country. Mahmud Turkia/AFP/Getty Images

Russia is interested in Libya finally becoming a working state after this barbaric intervention that was conducted from outside, that led to catastrophic consequences from the point of view of the Libyan state and the future of the Libyan people, Peskov said. That is why we are interested in the swift development of a durable power in Libya that can begin the process of restoring and recreating the state.

Peskov made his comments Wednesday after Putins Middle East envoy Mikhail Bogdanovs statement Monday, in which he announced that the prime minister of the Government of National Accord of Libya, Fayez al-Sarraj, would visit Russia in the coming days.

His is one of a handful of political institutions in Libya that are vying for de facto power over the country as a whole, though Moscow has recently courted rival factions, most notably the military leader Khalifa Haftar.

Haftar was given a statesmans welcome aboard Russias Syria-bound air carrier last year and has said he expects Russia to lobby for his and Libyas interests in the U.N. Security Council.

Peskov said Putin himself is currently not planning any meeting with Sarraj. The Kremlin has let the ministries of defense and foreign affairs negotiate with Libyan factions, including Haftars during his last visit to Moscow in November.

Continued here:
Kremlin Condemns NATO's 'Barbaric' Libya Intervention Ahead of PM Visit - Newsweek