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Category Archives: Space Travel

The covert race for an artificial sun and unlimited energy – TRT World

Posted: December 26, 2020 at 12:47 am

From artificial suns to limitless energy, the United States, China and Russia are competing for creating sun-like fusion, which promises a better world for some and worse for others.

At the heart of our sun is a ceaseless nuclear furnace, where unparalleled heat and the gravitational force caused by its tremendous mass place incredible pressure on its core. This results in indescribable pressure, fusing hydrogen and helium together. The reaction gives off a tremendous amount of energy in the form of light and heat the two essential components for life on earth.

For the first time in a long time, realising commercial fusion may well be within humanitys grasp: within the next decade. In spite of the incredible benefits fusion promises, a breakthrough in the field would cause radical upheaval to the worlds fossil fuel energy industry, impacting petroleum-reliant countries the most.

War and peace

Ever since humans mastered the splitting of the atom through fission, sun-like fusion quickly became the holy grail of every nuclear scientist. This pursuit led to the creation of the hydrogen bomb, and while never used in war, it is potentially 1000 times strongerthan the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Unlike fission which is used by todays nuclear power plants, fusion doesnt produce radioactive waste as a byproduct and only requires hydrogen which is readily found in water. Uranium-235, a highly radioactive isotope used in atom-splitting nuclear weapons, takes 703.8 million years to decay by 50 per cent, and a similar amount of time to lose the remaining 25 per cent.

This presents tremendous problems for governments, making it nearly impossible to store it safely. For instance, a United States proposal to deal with radioactive waste suggested it be stored underground in the middle of the Yucca desert. But even if it was stored in lead-lined steel drums, planners realized the waste would still be radioactive long after the drums fell apart hundreds if not thousands of years later. Given the mutations and cancer radiation causes, fusion remains the ideal standard for nuclear energy.

Because fusion doesnt produce greenhouse gases, scientists the world over see it as a clean, limitless source of energy to power the future.

Triggering fusion for a fraction of a second is relatively easy though, compared to sustaining the chain reaction indefinitely to power entire cities.

Fusion is incredibly difficult

Even if it occurs in the sun naturally, creating sustainable fusion is hard. On paper, its pretty simple. Smash some atoms together, and soak up the energy. But in reality, creating the equivalent of an artificial sun is much harder.

For one, the sun is 1.3 million times larger than the Earth. The kind of gravity the sun's mass yields is impossible on Earth. Second, fusion of hydrogen at the suns core happens in a stellar oven that burns at an intense 15 million degrees celsius.

For scientists on earth, the challenge isnt only in creating the pressure and heat necessary to fuse hydrogen, but also in keeping it contained. So they use magnetic fields to keep it suspended.

Thats more challenging than it sounds. Containing turbulent molten plasma at just the right conditions for fusion under high pressure while subject to heat in the millions of degrees celsius requires significant research, experimentation and continuous trial-and-error.

The process also requires an incredible amount of energy input. To make fusion a commercial reality, scientists are working hard to realize an energy output thats higher than its input. Thats a tall order. In fact, because Earth's gravity is nowhere near that of the suns', scientists need to turn up the heat to compensate for the lack of pressure which actually ends up using more energy. Instead of a natural sunny 15 million degrees celsius, fusion reactors on earth need to work at several hundred million degrees celsius. With higher temperatures comes the need for stronger magnetic containment however, requiring even more energy to realize fusion.

Quick study

But the way scientists work and improve reactors is changing with the introduction of artificial intelligence for data analysis. Physics experiments arent simple, and figuring out what data means, or what went wrong takes a significant amount of time. Neural networks tasked with learning the most efficient conditions for fusion make lightning-fast inferences, turn around experiments faster, and feature a rapid learning curve thats making the entire process much faster.

The brunt of the work has already been carried out by physicists and engineers. From 1950 to 2000, levels of reactor density, temperature and total run-time have increased by a factor of one million. Scientists estimate we only need an increase in this triple product by a factor of two to break even and produce more energy than reactors require.

Race for power

This means the race is heating up like never before, and its primarily between the United States, China and Russia. For some nations, it's a matter of national security; leaving fusion technology a closely guarded secret. The US team, led by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a spin-off of the Massachusetts Institute for Technology, plans to show a net energy gain by 2025.

China, a more recent addition to the fusion race is close behind, and takes energy just as seriously, and is already competing with Russia for conventional nuclear energy. On December 4 2020, China turned on its artificial sun for the first time using a Russian-designed reactor it has been improving for some time. While China is working in collaboration with the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and is joined by 35 other countries, the race to produce a commercially viable fusion reactor is still very much an individual one for China.

While China has already activated its fusion reactor previously for test runs, ITER aims to turn on its artificial sun in 2025, with the aim of achieving net power by 2035, nearly 10 years after MITs estimated deadline.

New dawn

Fusion promises to reshape much of our known world, making fossil fuels obsolete, while reducing overall energy costs. For countries whose primary exports are petroleum products or liquid natural gas, fusion is a great disruptor. But thats not to say fusion will replace fossil fuels outright, given their role in running engines the world over.

The possibilities dont end there. NASA recently announced its relative success in producing fusion on a miniature scale, which it aims to utilize in space travel, and a number of companies such as Princeton Satellite Systems, Helicity Space and Pulsar Fusion are working on using fusion to produce new forms of propulsion.

As the global race to make fusion a reality nears the finish line, corporate interests are beginning to pay serious attention to its prospects.

Andrew Holland, Executive Director of the Fusion Industry Association, estimates that more than $1.5 billion has been invested in private fusion energy start-ups. That's to say nothing of government sponsored efforts. Other key backers of fusion include Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel and Bill Gates. But a stronger sign of how serious fusion is being taken can be seen by the resources poured into it by strategic investors such as Legal & General and traditionally-fossil fuel energy companies like Equinor, Eni and Chevron.

For our generation, fusion is poised to introduce a new chapter in humanitys quest for energy.

Source: TRT World

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Houston Texans Podcast: Dumb and Dumber – Battle Red Blog

Posted: at 12:47 am

Two weeks ago, we thought we found the bottom, the dumbest possible way the Houston Texans could lose to the Indianapolis Colts. Nick Martin scuffling a snap across the turf while simultaneously missing his block and giving Grover Stewart a path to the ball couldnt be topped.

Then this week happened. The same thing. The same situation. It wasnt a question of if the Texans would lose, but how dumb they would look doing it. Somehow, they nearly surpassed their previous buffoonery. Keke Coutee was tackled from behind after breaking a tackle and turning up the field to tie the game, only to be stripped and for the Colts to recover in the end zone. T

he bottom is infinite. There are no limits to the misery the soul can experience or, in this case, what our favorite football team can inflict upon those who dare to love it.

On this episode of Battle Red Radio, Matt Weston, BFD, and Scott discuss Houstons newest stupid loss to the Colts while simultaneously envisioning the future. Topics include where this loss ranks in the history of dumb losses to the Colts, why Deshaun Watson has had so much success against the Colts this year, my emergency room visits resulting from having a little too much Kahale Warring, how long it will take for nature to heal itself in the post Bill OBrien wasteland this team travels through, Chad Hansen, Tyrell Adams inter-dimensional space travel, and, of course, your beautiful and perfect listener questions.

Lets start the show.

You can listen via the direct link here.

You can listen to the embedded player below.

While youre at it, give it a five star review and subscribe below:

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Five reasons to explore Mars – Brookings Institution

Posted: August 23, 2020 at 1:26 am

The recent launch of the Mars rover Perseverance is the latest U.S. space mission seeking to understand our solar system. Its expected arrival at the Red Planet in mid-February 2021 has a number of objectives linked to science and innovation. The rover is equipped with sophisticated instruments designed to search for the remains of ancient microbial life, take pictures and videos of rocks, drill for soil and rock samples, and use a small helicopter to fly around the Jezero Crater landing spot.

Mars is a valuable place for exploration because it can be reached in 6 months, is a major opportunity for scientific exploration, and has been mapped and studied for several decades. The mission represents the first step in a long-term effort to bring Martian samples back to Earth, where they can be analyzed for residues of microbial life. Beyond the study of life itself, there are a number of different benefits of Mars exploration.

The site where Perseverance is expected to land is the place where experts believe 3.5 billion years ago held a lake filled with water and flowing rivers. It is an ideal place to search for the residues of microbial life, test new technologies, and lay the groundwork for human exploration down the road.

The mission plans to investigate whether microbial life existed on Mars billions of years ago and therefore that life is not unique to Planet Earth. As noted by Chris McKay, a research scientist at NASAs Ames Research Science Center, that would be an extraordinary discovery. Right here in our solar system, if life started twice, that tells us some amazing things about our universe, he pointed out. It means the universe is full of life. Life becomes a natural feature of the universe, not just a quirk of this odd little planet around this star.

The question of the origins of life and its ubiquity around the universe is central to science, religion, and philosophy. For much of our existence, humans have assumed that even primitive life was unique to Planet Earth and not present in the rest of the solar system, let alone the universe. We have constructed elaborate religious and philosophical narratives around this assumption and built our identity along the notion that life is unique to Earth.

If, as many scientists expect, future space missions cast doubt on that assumption or outright disprove it by finding remnants of microbial life on other planets, it will be both invigorating and illusion-shattering. It will force humans to confront their own myths and consider alternative narratives about the universe and the place of Earth in the overall scheme of things.

As noted in my Brookings book, Megachange, given the centrality of these issues for fundamental questions about human existence and the meaning of life, it would represent a far-reaching shift in existing human paradigms. As argued by scientist McKay, discovering evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars would lead experts to conclude that life likely is ubiquitous around the universe and not limited to Planet Earth. Humans would have to construct new theories about ourselves and our place in the universe.

The U.S. space program has been an extraordinary catalyst for technology innovation. Everything from Global Positioning Systems and medical diagnostic tools to wireless technology and camera phones owe at least part of their creation to the space program. Space exploration required the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to learn how to communicate across wide distances, develop precise navigational tools, store, transmit, and process large amounts of data, deal with health issues through digital imaging and telemedicine, and develop collaborative tools that link scientists around the world. The space program has pioneered the miniaturization of scientific equipment and helped engineers figure out how to land and maneuver a rover from millions of miles away.

Going to Mars requires similar inventiveness. Scientists have had to figure out how to search for life in ancient rocks, drill for rock samples, take high resolution videos, develop flying machines in a place with gravity that is 40 percent lower than on Earth, send detailed information back to Earth in a timely manner, and take off from another planet. In the future, we should expect large payoffs in commercial developments from Mars exploration and advances that bring new conveniences and inventions to people.

In the not too distant future, wealthy tourists likely will take trips around the Earth, visit space stations, orbit the Moon, and perhaps even take trips around Mars. For a substantial fee, they can experience weightlessness, take in the views of the entire planet, see the stars from outside the Earths atmosphere, and witness the wonders of other celestial bodies.

The Mars program will help with space tourism by improving engineering expertise with space docking, launches, and reentry and providing additional experience about the impact of space travel on the human body. Figuring out how weightlessness and low gravity situations alter human performance and how space radiation affects people represent just a couple areas where there are likely to be positive by-products for future travel.

The advent of space tourism will broaden human horizons in the same way international travel has exposed people to other lands and perspectives. It will show them that the Earth has a delicate ecosystem that deserves protecting and why it is important for people of differing countries to work together to solve global problems. Astronauts who have had this experience say it has altered their viewpoints and had a profound impact on their way of thinking.

Many objects around the solar system are made of similar minerals and chemical compounds that exist on Earth. That means that some asteroids, moons, and planets could be rich in minerals and rare elements. Figuring out how to harvest those materials in a safe and responsible manner and bring them back to Earth represents a possible benefit of space exploration. Elements that are rare on Earth may exist elsewhere, and that could open new avenues for manufacturing, product design, and resource distribution. This mission could help resource utilization through advances gained with its Mars Oxygen Experiment (MOXIE) equipment that converts Martian carbon dioxide into oxygen. If MOXIE works as intended, it would help humans live and work on the Red Planet.

One of the most crucial features of humanity is our curiosity about the life, the universe, and how things operate. Exploring space provides a means to satisfy our thirst for knowledge and improve our understanding of ourselves and our place in the universe.

Space travel already has exploded centuries-old myths and promises to continue to confront our long-held assumptions about who we are and where we come from. The next decade promises to be an exciting period as scientists mine new data from space telescopes, space travel, and robotic exploration. Ten or twenty years from now, we may have answers to basic questions that have eluded humans for centuries, such as how ubiquitous life is outside of Earth, whether it is possible for humans to survive on other planets, and how planets evolve over time.

The author would like to thank Victoria E. Hamilton, staff scientist at the Southwest Research Institute, for her helpful feedback on this blog post.

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The fastest star ever seen is moving at 8% the speed of light – Space.com

Posted: at 1:26 am

In the center of our Milky Way galaxy, scientists have spotted the fastest star ever detected, moving at more than 8% of the speed of light.

Our galaxy's center features the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), which is as massive as about 4 million suns. Being so massive, it has hundreds of stars pulled closely into its orbit, traveling extra-fast from the gravitational boost presented by this close proximity. In a new study, scientists discovered the fastest of these stars, S4714, which orbits around Sgr A* at more than 8% of light speed, or 15,000 miles per second (24,000 km/second), faster than any other known star.

Another star orbiting close to Sgr A*, called S2, was once thought for to be the fastest star. But last year, a new speedy contender, the star S62, was detected by a team led by astrophysicist Florian Peissker of the University of Cologne in Germany. At the time, S62was said to be the closest star orbiting Sgr A*, speeding around the black hole. Now, the same team has discovered five new "S stars," or stars which travel in long, elliptical orbits around Sgr A*, that are even closer S4711, S4712, S4713, S4714 and S4715.

Video: How the Milky Way's Black Hole Ejected Runaway Star

Related: The biggeststar mysteries of all time

The team has been studying our galaxy's center and the ultra-fast stars orbiting its supermassive black hole using the ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile for the past seven years. They have also used near-infrared data from SINFONI (Spectrograph for INtegral Field Observations in the Near Infrared).

"I am constantly working on the galactic center and I am pretty sure that this was not our last publication," Peissker told ScienceAlert. "The high dynamical environment is for scientists like a candy-shop for children..

This discovery doesn't just highlight S4714 and its incredible speeds, it also gives scientist a window into studying a theorized type of star known as "squeezars" that orbits so close to black holes that they are "squeezed" by the black hole's tidal forces. Theresearch also suggests that there could be even more of these ultra-fast stars zipping around supermassive black holes like this, scientists said.

This work was published Aug. 11 in the Astrophysical Journal.

Email Chelsea Gohd at cgohd@space.com or follow her on Twitter @chelsea_gohd. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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Need a Job? Elon Musk May Have One for You in South Texas. – Reform Austin

Posted: at 1:26 am

It may not be welcomed by residents, but the tiny south Texas town of Boca Chica Village may wind up as a spa destination for the well-heeled who are interested in space travel. Its all part of Elon Musks plans to turn the area into a 21st Century spaceport.

According to a recent job posting, the hunt is on for a resort development manager to oversee the development of SpaceXs first resort from inception to completion.

SpaceX is committed to developing revolutionary space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people to live on other planets, the job posting reads. Boca Chica Village is our latest launch site dedicated to Starship, our next generation launch vehicle. SpaceX is committed to developing this town into a 21st century spaceport. We are looking for a talented resort development manager to oversee the development of SpaceXs first resort from inception to completion.

Applicants will need experience bringing teams and processes from development to production, strong leadership skills and be willing to work long hours and weekends.

Residents arent exactly enamored with Musk. They complain of noise from rocket launches and bullying tactics to get them to sell their homes. SpaceX reportedly now owns half of the villages 35 homes.

Musk is putting down more roots in Texas. In late July, Musk announced plans to build a Tesla Cybertruck plant just outside Austin.

Written by RA News staff.

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Five Reasons to Explore Mars – Darrell West – GoLocalProv

Posted: at 1:26 am

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Darrell West, Guest Contributor

View Larger +

Mars, PHOTO: NASA

UNDERSTAND THE ORIGINS AND UBIQUITY OF LIFE

The site where Perseverance is expected to land is the place where experts believe 3.5 billion years ago held a lake filled with water and flowing rivers. It is an ideal place to search for the residues of microbial life, test new technologies, and lay the groundwork for human exploration down the road.

The mission plans to investigate whether microbial life existed on Mars billions of years ago and therefore that life is not unique to Planet Earth. As noted by Chris McKay, a research scientist at NASAs Ames Research Science Center, that would be an extraordinary discovery. Right here in our solar system,if life started twice, that tells us some amazing things about our universe, he pointed out. It means the universe is full of life. Life becomes a natural feature of the universe, not just a quirk of this odd little planet around this star.

The question of the origins of life and its ubiquity around the universe is central to science, religion, and philosophy. For much of our existence, humans have assumed that even primitive life was unique to Planet Earth and not present in the rest of the solar system, let alone the universe. We have constructed elaborate religious and philosophical narratives around this assumption and built our identity along the notion that life is unique to Earth.

If, as many scientists expect, future space missions cast doubt on that assumption or outright disprove it by finding remnants of microbial life on other planets, it will be both invigorating and illusion-shattering. It will force humans to confront their own myths and consider alternative narratives about the universe and the place of Earth in the overall scheme of things.

As noted in my Brookings book,Megachange, given the centrality of these issues for fundamental questions about human existence and the meaning of life, it would represent a far-reaching shift in existing human paradigms. As argued by scientist McKay, discovering evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars would lead experts to conclude that life likely is ubiquitous around the universe and not limited to Planet Earth. Humans would have to construct new theories about ourselves and our place in the universe.

DEVELOP NEW TECHNOLOGIES

The U.S. space program has been an extraordinarycatalyst for technology innovation. Everything from Global Positioning Systems and medical diagnostic tools to wireless technology and camera phones owe at least part of their creation to the space program. Space exploration required the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to learn how to communicate across wide distances, develop precise navigational tools, store, transmit, and process large amounts of data, deal with health issues through digital imaging and telemedicine, and develop collaborative tools that link scientists around the world. The space program has pioneered the miniaturization of scientific equipment and helped engineers figure out how to land and maneuver a rover from millions of miles away.

Going to Mars requires similar inventiveness. Scientists have had to figure out how to search for life in ancient rocks, drill for rock samples, take high resolution videos, develop flying machines in a place with gravity that is 40 percent lower than on Earth, send detailed information back to Earth in a timely manner, and take off from another planet. In the future, we should expect large payoffs in commercial developments from Mars exploration and advances that bring new conveniences and inventions to people.

ENCOURAGE SPACE TOURISM

In the not too distant future, wealthy tourists likely will take trips around the Earth, visit space stations, orbit the Moon, and perhaps even take trips around Mars. For a substantial fee, they can experience weightlessness, take in the views of the entire planet, see the stars from outside the Earths atmosphere, and witness the wonders of other celestial bodies.

The Mars program will help with space tourism by improving engineering expertise with space docking, launches, and reentry and providing additional experience about the impact of space travel on the human body. Figuring out how weightlessness and low gravity situations alter human performance and how space radiation affects people represent just a couple areas where there are likely to be positive by-products for future travel.

The advent of space tourism willbroaden human horizonsin the same way international travel has exposed people to other lands and perspectives. It will show them that the Earth has a delicate ecosystem that deserves protecting and why it is important for people of differing countries to work together to solve global problems. Astronauts who have had this experience say it has altered their viewpoints and had a profound impact on their way of thinking.

FACILITATE SPACE MINING

Many objects around the solar system are made of similar minerals and chemical compounds that exist on Earth. That means that some asteroids, moons, and planets could be rich in minerals and rare elements. Figuring out how toharvest those materialsin a safe and responsible manner and bring them back to Earth represents a possible benefit of space exploration. Elements that are rare on Earth may exist elsewhere, and that could open new avenues for manufacturing, product design, and resource distribution. This mission could help resource utilization through advances gained with its Mars Oxygen Experiment (MOXIE) equipment that converts Martian carbon dioxide into oxygen. If MOXIE works as intended, it would help humans live and work on the Red Planet.

ADVANCE SCIENCE

One of the most crucial features of humanity is our curiosity about the life, the universe, and how things operate. Exploring space provides a means to satisfy our thirst for knowledge and improve our understanding of ourselves and our place in the universe.

Space travel already has exploded centuries-old myths and promises to continue to confront our long-held assumptions about who we are and where we come from. The next decade promises to be an exciting period as scientists mine new data from space telescopes, space travel, and robotic exploration. Ten or twenty years from now, we may haveanswers to basic questionsthat have eluded humans for centuries, such as how ubiquitous life is outside of Earth, whether it is possible for humans to survive on other planets, and how planets evolve over time.

@DarrWest

The author would like to thank Victoria E. Hamilton, staff scientist at the Southwest Research Institute, for her helpful feedback on this blog post.

This article was first published by Brookings.

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Space Tourism Market Share and Growth Analysis 2025, Impact Of Covid-19 On The Industry And Top Companies (Space Adventures, EADS Astrium, Virgin…

Posted: at 1:26 am

Space tourism is space travel for recreational, leisure or business purposes. To date only orbital space tourism has taken place provided by the Russian Space Agency, although work continues developing sub-orbital space tourism vehicles by Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. In addition, SpaceX announced in 2017 that they are planning on sending two space tourists on a lunar free return trajectory in 2018 aboard their Dragon V2 spacecraft launched by the Falcon Heavy rocket.

ACCESS THE PDF SAMPLE OF THE REPORT @HTTPS://WWW.ORBISRESEARCH.COM/CONTACTS/REQUEST-SAMPLE/3159167

The global Space Tourism market will reach xxx Million USD in 2019 with CAGR xx% 2019-2025. The main contents of the report including:Global market size and forecastRegional market size, production data and export & importKey manufacturers profile, products & services, sales data of businessGlobal market size by Major ApplicationGlobal market size by Major Type

Key manufacturers are included based on company profile, sales data and product specifications etc.:Space AdventuresEADS AstriumVirgin GalacticArmadillo AerospaceExcalibur AlmazSpace Island GroupSpaceXBoeingZero 2 Infinity

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Major applications as follows:CiviliansThe Rich

Major Type as follows:SuborbitalOrbital

Regional market size, production data and export & import:Asia-PacificNorth AmericaEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East & Africa

Browse the complete report @https://www.orbisresearch.com/reports/index/global-space-tourism-market-data-survey-report-2013-2025

Table of Contents

1 Global Market Overview1.1 Scope of Statistics1.1.1 Scope of Products1.1.2 Scope of Manufacturers1.1.3 Scope of Application1.1.4 Scope of Type1.1.5 Scope of Regions/Countries1.2 Global Market Size2 Regional Market2.1 Regional Production2.2 Regional Demand2.3 Regional Trade3 Key Manufacturers3.1 Space Adventures3.1.1 Company Information3.1.2 Product & Services3.1.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.1.4 Recent Development3.2 EADS Astrium3.2.1 Company Information3.2.2 Product & Services3.2.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.2.4 Recent Development3.3 Virgin Galactic3.3.1 Company Information3.3.2 Product & Services3.3.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.3.4 Recent Development3.4 Armadillo Aerospace3.4.1 Company Information3.4.2 Product & Services3.4.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.4.4 Recent Development3.5 Excalibur Almaz3.5.1 Company Information3.5.2 Product & Services3.5.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.5.4 Recent Development3.6 Space Island Group3.6.1 Company Information3.6.2 Product & Services3.6.3 Business Data (Sales Revenue, Cost and Margin)3.6.4 Recent Development3.7 SpaceX3.7.1 Company Information3.7.2

Continued.

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Space Tourism Market Share and Growth Analysis 2025, Impact Of Covid-19 On The Industry And Top Companies (Space Adventures, EADS Astrium, Virgin...

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Beyond Fermis Paradox VI: The Berserker Hypothesis – Universe Today

Posted: at 1:26 am

In 1950, Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi sat down to lunch with some of his colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, where he had worked five years prior as part of the Manhattan Project. According to various accounts, the conversation turned to aliens and the recent spate of UFOs. Into this, Fermi issued a statement that would go down in the annals of history: Where is everybody?

This became the basis of the Fermi Paradox, which refers to the disparity between high probability estimates for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) and the apparent lack of evidence. Since Fermis time, there have been several proposed resolutions to his question, which includes the Berserker Hypothesis. This theory suggests we havent heard from any alien civilizations because theyve been wiped out by killer robots!

Also known as the deadly probes scenario, this hypothesis may sound like something science fiction (the name itself is actually taken from an SF franchise, in fact), but its actually rooted in scientific research. It also touches on other proposed resolutions to the Fermi Paradox, such as the Hart-Tipler Conjecture (i.e. aliens dont exist) and that its the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself or others.

Central to Fermis famous question was a discrepancy between the assumed likelihood that extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) and the lack of evidence to support this assumption. But given the number of stars in our galaxy (200 to 400 billion), the number of Earth-like planets in our galaxy (an estimated 6 billion), the number of galaxies in the Universe (as many as 2 trillion), its not farfetched to assume intelligent life must exist elsewhere.

In 1961, American physicist and SETI researcher Dr. Frank Drake illustrated this conundrum during a meeting at the Green Bank Observatory. In preparation for the meeting, Drake created an equation that summed up the probability of finding ETIs in our galaxy. Thereafter known as the Drake Equation, this probabilistic argument is expressed mathematically as:

And yet, after an additional 70 years of searching, Fermis Paradox and the Great Silence persist as no compelling evidence has been found. This has led to multiple proposed resolutions from astrophysicists, astrobiologists, and other scientists and researchers. One of the most notable is the Great Filter Hypothesis, which was coined by economist Robin Hanson from Oxford Universitys Future of Humanity Institute (FHI).

The term first appeared in a 1996 essay by Hanson titled The Great Filter Are We Almost Past It?, where he proposed that there must be something that prevents non-living matter from coming together to form living organisms (abiogenesis) and reaching a high level of development. Using humanity as a template, Hanson created a nine-step process for the evolution of life. This consisted of:

Essentially, Hansons Filter would have to be located somewhere within this process, possibly indicating life has a hard time emerging (if its at an early step) or becoming advanced (if its at a later step). Philosopher Nick Bostrom (also from the FHI) summarized the hypothesis beautifully in his 2008 essay, Where Are They? Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Finds Nothing:

The Great Filter can be thought of as a probability barrier. It consists of [one or] more highly improbable evolutionary transitions or steps whose occurrence is required in order for an Earth-like planet to produce an intelligent civilization of a type that would be visible to us with our current observation technology.

In the case of the Berserker Hypothesis, the Filter would be placed between step 8 and 9 with the assumption that life doesnt have a hard time taking root or evolving, but ends up creating the machines that will destroy it. In this sense, intelligent life dooms itself to extinction at the very moment that it is poised on becoming an interstellar civilization.

The Berserker Hypothesis traces its origins to the mid-20th century, where mathematician John von Neumann, who began lecturing about his idea for self-replicating automata in 1948-1949. He called these machines Universal Assemblers, which would come to be referred to as von Neumann machines. Essentially, these machines would harvest local resources in order to produce copies of themselves.

In 1966, almost a decade after his death, von Neumanns ideas and notes concerning Universal Assemblers were compiled and published in a book titled, Theory of self-reproducing automata. In time, his theories about robots that could endlessly self-replicate had implications for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence and the Fermi Paradox, since the presence of such machines in our galaxy would be easily detectable.

In 1981, Frank Tipler wrote a study titled, Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist, where he argued that the absence von Neumann probes was evidence that ETIs didnt exist. Consistent with the Hart-Tipler Conjecture, he asserted that a sufficiently-advanced species would eventually develop universal assemblers that would explore and/or colonize the galaxy in less than 300 million years

In short, Tipler argued that based on the history of our galaxy (and even at a moderate-rate of production), a species of self-replicating probes would be widespread in our galaxy and humanity would have encountered them by now. In 1983, Carl Sagan and William Newman produced a study in response titled The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

In it, Sagan and Newman argued that Tipler had underestimated the rate of replication and that any von Neumann probes would have consumed most of the mass in the galaxy by now. Therefore, Sagan and Newman argued that an advanced race would avoid building self-replicating machines and would destroy any they encountered.

However, the suggestion that von Neumann probes would inevitably be destructive inspired another interpretation. Could it be that the reason we havent heard from any ETIs is that they have been wiped out by von Neumann probes that were designed to seek out life and destroy it? Or could it be that a species of benign probes went berserk, wiped out their creators, and have been destroying any life they encounter ever since?

Rather than having a single proponent, the Berseker Hypothesis is one that appears to have emerged over time, both as a popular science fiction trope and as a potential resolution to the Fermi Paradox. In the case of the former, science fiction writers like Fred Saberhagen explored this idea at length with his Berserker novels (1963-2005), the popular SF series from which the theory gets its name.

Astrophysicist and SF writer Gregory Benford explored the idea further in his Galactic Center Saga (1976-1995). Throughout these novels, Benford depicts a first contact scenario with alien machines (the Mechs) that are the creation of an extinct species that sees all biological life as inherently unstable and prone to self-destruction. The fact that the Mechs annihilate all advanced life they find is offered as the reason for the Great Silence.

Beyond science fiction, you have scientists like Glen David Brin, an astrophysicist, science fiction author, and NASA-consultant. In 1983, he published a study titled The Great Silence the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life, where he conducted a thorough review of the proposed resolutions to the Fermi Paradox which included the Berserker interpretation of the classic von Neumann probe theory.

Addressing the arguments put forth by Tipler and others who supported the notion that humanity is unique in the Universe, Brin summarized the case for Berserker probes thusly:

Let us say many advanced ETIS get the robot-emissary idea and ship out first-generation probes as Tipler suggests, to replicate and fill the void with messages of brotherhood. Then suppose that for every 100 or 1000 or 10,000 sane ETIS, there is one that is xenophobic, paranoid even. Such a race might program its self-replicating emissaries to add powerful bombs to their repertoire, and command them to home in on any unrecognized source of modulated electromagnetic radiation.

The frightening thing about these Deadly Probes, argued Brin, is that it is consistent with all of the facts and philosophical principles that have been raised ever since Fermi asked his famous question. In response to the many decades in which SETI efforts have been conducted (and their failure to find evidence of ETIs) the Berserker Hypothesis offers a sensible explanation:

There is no need to struggle to suppress the elements of the Drake equation in order to explain the Great Silence, nor need we suggest that no ETIS anywhere would bear the cost of interstellar travel. It need only happen once for the results of this scenario to become the equilibrium conditions in the Galaxy. We would not have detected extra-terrestrial radio traffic nor would any ETIS have ever settled on Earth because all were killed shortly after discovering radio.

There have been a number of variations on this argument, such as cosmologist Edward Harrison. In 1981, he argued that an advanced species that has overcome its own self-destructive tendencies might be motivated to create Berserker probes out of a sense of self-preservation. This idea, where destruction is implemented out of some sense of the greater good, has come to be known as the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis.

Theres also the version of this hypothesis where the first lifeform (or lifeforms) to achieve interstellar space travel and colonization will prevent others from arising and achieving the same ends. This may be intentional, or simply the result of the tragedy of the commons and the anthropic principle, where one party working for their own self-interests invariably holds back others.

While the Berserker Hypothesis does provide a reasonably succinct resolution to the Fermi Paradox, it is itself subject to some of the same problems. For instance, if berserk hunter-killer robots are the reason we are not seeing any advanced civilizations, then why is it that were not seeing any evidence of hunter-killer robots?

After all, a species of robots that have become so pervasive that they would have eliminated any ETIs in our corner of the galaxy would have surely left undeniable signs of its existence. If planets (and/or stars) were being dismantled within thousands of light-years from Earth, observers here would certainly notice the massive energy signatures produced. In addition, the sudden disappearance of planets and suns would be an indication.

In 2013, Anders Sandberg and Stuart Armstrong of the FHI tested the Berserker Hypothesis in a study titled Hunters in the dark: game theory analysis of the deadly probes scenario. They analysis determine that even at a slow rate of self-replication, a population of von Neumann probes would have been able to spread to the point that it would have encoutered (and annihilated) humanity already.

It has also been suggested that Berserker robots would turn on their own, eliminating the evidence of themselves the same way they would eliminate ETIs. However, a recent study by Duncan Forgan of the University of St. Andrews Centre for Exoplanet Science concluded that a berserk population of probes couldnt possibly eliminate their non-berserk brethren fast enough to stop them from spreading throughout the galaxy.

Alas, it seems that theories involving von Neumann probes and berserker robots run into the same difficulties as other potential resolutions to the Fermi Paradox. In the end, these difficulties all come down to one stark reality: humanity is the only intelligent life and the only civilization in the Universe that we know about. At least, for now.

Until we find some other examples of ETI and learn to recognize the signs of their biological and technological activity (i.e. biosignatures and technosignatures), we wont know how to find more like them. At present, theoretical analyses and probabilistic arguments are about the best we can do. That, and to keep on looking! Because, after all, Fermis Paradox only needs to be solved once!

We have written many interesting articles about the Fermi Paradox, the Drake Equation, and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) here at Universe Today.

Heres Where Are All the Aliens? The Fermi Paradox, Where Are The Aliens? How The Great Filter Could Affect Tech Advances In Space, Why Finding Alien Life Would Be Bad. The Great Filter, Where Are All The Alien Robots?, How Could We Find Aliens? The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), and Fraser and John Michael Godier Debate the Fermi Paradox.

Want to calculate the number of extraterrestrial species in our galaxy? Head on over to the Alien Civilization Calculator!

And be sure to check out the rest of our Beyond Fermis Paradox series:

Astronomy Cast has some interesting episodes on the subject. Heres Episode 24: The Fermi Paradox: Where Are All the Aliens?, Episode 110: The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Episode 168: Enrico Fermi, Episode 273: Solutions to the Fermi Paradox.

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Beyond Fermis Paradox VI: The Berserker Hypothesis - Universe Today

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Inside Google’s feud with the battered online travel industry – CNBC

Posted: at 1:26 am

Philipp Schindler

Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images

Behind closed doors, Google is engaged in a bitter standoff with the online travel industry. The issue is global but German travel companies have been particularly outspoken.

Activity booking platform GetYourGuide, hotel finder Trivago, and Airbnb rival HomeToGo have been feuding with the search giant about their unpaid advertising bills since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.

Online travel companies were particularly exposed to the devastating economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak as lockdowns brought worldwide mobility to a near standstill. New bookings dried up and the sites had to refund tens of millions of dollars to customers that were unable to travel.

In a joint letter, a group of German travel start-ups asked Google, which has helped the businesses thrive over the years by promoting their websites in its search results in exchange for a fee, to share the burden.

The letter didn't work as the companies hoped it would.CNBC has been able to confirm through multiple sources and materials that Google demanded advertising bills were paid in full.

"Google refused to do anything and instead asked us to pay immediately in the midst of the pandemic," said GetYourGuide Chief Executive Johannes Reck, who persuaded SoftBank to invest $500 million in his Berlin-based company last year.

Reck told CNBC that Google's behavior during the coronavirus "is the match that has ignited a much greater fire."

Google played down the allegations and said it is working with its travel partners to help protect their businesses.

"We've taken a number of measures including helping them surface their cancellation policies in our travel search products," a spokesperson for the company said.

As times got tough, a group of German firms wrote a letter to Google on April 30 two days after parent company Alphabet posted quarterly earnings with $41.1 billion in revenue asking the search giant to postpone collecting their bills. The letter was authored by the German Start-ups Association (The Bundesverband Deutsche Startups) and signed by eight travel start-ups including GetYourGuide and Trivago.

Unlike Facebook and Microsoft's Bing search engine, Google has not been overly accommodating when it came to delaying or reducing unpaid bills, according to three of the companies that signed the letter.

All of the companies that signed the letter paid Google in full in June or July.

"We're absolutely not satisfied with the support Google offered during this ongoing crisis" Patrick Andrae, HomeToGo's co-founder and CEO, told CNBC.

Axel Hefer, chief executive at Trivago, told CNBC that Trivago has "missed a collaborative spirit from Google."

He added: "As one of the largest players in the travel ecosystem and probably one of the very few still generating profits right now, I would have expected more solidarity."

Facebook oered some online travel companies an immediate 60-day delay in payments and proactively provided credits to test new ad products during recovery, thereby osetting some of the incurred losses.

Bing immediately oered payment delays of at least 90 days, with ongoing review, should the recovery not start.

GetYourGuide is one of the firms that is particularly upset with Google. Valued at over $1.5 billion, the start-up wouldn't be the size it is today if it weren't for the U.S. search giant. But the relationship has become increasingly frosty in recent months.

In February and March, GetYourGuide spent over 4 million euros ($4.7 million) in advertising on Google's platforms, acquiring customers who canceled and were refunded. After that, bookings dropped to less than 1% of 2019 levels.

Following April's open letter, there was a media storm, and Reck said Google "shut up for a couple of weeks."

However, on May 8, Google asked GetYourGuide for full payment on all ad bills with no credit or discounts for any canceled and refunded bookings.

On May 15, Philipp Schindler, senior vice president and chief business officer at Google, held a call with online travel companies. He promised a generous recovery package and acknowledged that travel is in dire straits. The package included payment support, credits on non-Adwords platforms and other benefits. He also said Google was struggling, too.

Nothing happened immediately afterward. But in the week of May 25, as Germany eased its lockdown measures and travel picked up slightly, Google started asking travel companies to commit to a payment plan, saying their accounts would be suspended if they didn't comply.

When asked about a possible suspension, a Google spokesperson told CNBC:"We treat payment terms with our customers or partners as confidential and we're not able to disclose details."

Johannes Reck, CEO of travel start-up GetYourGuide.

Jens Kalaene | picture alliance | Getty Images

Conversely, the online travel firms needed to secure Google Search ads more than ever at this time. Google has a 90% market share on search engine traffic in Europe and more than 75% of travelers in Europe consult Google before they travel, Reck said. As soon as GetYourGuide started to advertise again, Google essentially said "pay now," or commit to this payment plan, according to Reck.

The payment plan allowed GetYourGuide to delay payments by a maximum of six months but the company would have only been able to do so much advertising with Google while fulfilling the payments. "That didn't make sense because you don't want to constrain yourself in the rebound," said Reck.

In an updated statement provided Thursday, a Google spokesperson said:"We fully recognize the enormous challenges facing the travel industry, and we've been working in close collaboration with travel advertisers to help them protect their businesses and look toward recovery."

They added: "The issue of payments collection applies to only a very small number of travel companies, and virtually all of our partners in the industry do not have overdue bills with us. As a matter of fairness, we're applying the same rules equally to all of our clients asking for relief, across both travel and the many other sectors that've been impacted by the pandemic."

Reck and Dominik Schwarz, chief inbound officer at HomeToGo, told CNBC that Google is trying to become a more dominant player in travel.

Arguably, it all started in 2010, when Google bought ITA, the leading platform for flight data.

"Google has better travel data than any other company on the planet," said Reck. "We see Google aggressively moving forward trying to get content from other companies in the travel space in order to build their own products."

HomeToGo filed a complaint to the European Commission last year.

"While all companies in the industry compete over delivering the best experience and the best product for travelers, Google decided to take a big share of the whole market for free," saidAndrae."Google achieves this by implementing a huge and eye-catching advertising space on the general search after the paid results, rerouting traffic at no costs and that otherwise would go to competitors right into their own product, cutting off other providers from being seen at all."

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, has yet to decide whether to investigate the case and it has not offered further comment.

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Azul Marisco is open along the Chicago River near Elston – Eater Chicago

Posted: at 1:26 am

Theres a property at the southeast corner of Elston and Division along the Chicago River in West Town that drivers zip past as they cross over to Goose Island. The Riverside property seems uniquely situated to cater to social distancing and has been home to clubs like Estate Ultra Bar, Slow Down! Lifes Too Short, and the Boondocks. Azul Mariscos + Muelle opened Thursday at 1177 N. Elston Avenue. The owners, SocialLight Group (Trophy Room) also ran Estate.

Seafood inspired Nayarit a state in Western Mexico isnt new for the area. Just travel a few blocks west along Ashland Avenue, and Chicagoans will find El Barco Mariscos, Alegrias Seafood, and Mariscos la Costa. Azuls chef, Michael Hernandez is a South Side native. He ran Diez y Ocho, a Pilsen burger restaurant that closed in 2017. Grilled King crab legs and whole red snapper are among the entree choices.

Azuls space distinguishes itself. There are tables set up along the water where customers can sip cocktails held in clay vessels made by youth enrolled in Project FIRE, a not for profit that helps youth heal from gun violence. The kits are making clay pots and cups for the drink with a portion of the drinks sales donated back to the charity. The space offers multiple outdoor areas. Meanwhile, indoor dining restrictions brought by COVID-19 are terrifying to restaurant owners in Chicago. Many dont know how theyll survive when freezing temperatures keep diners from craving patio seating. Keeping that in mind, Azuls management wants to the venue to become an all-season destination.

There are multiple levels inside, including a large rooftop bar. Management says its among the largest in Chicago and should open next week. Goose Island is primed for development if the controversial Lincoln Yards project gets off the ground. If Azul succeeds, theyll be seen as neighborhood pioneers.

Check out the photos of the food and space below. Azul is now open.

Azul Mariscos + Muelle, 1177 N. Elston Avenue, (773) 770-3766; reservations via OpenTable; open 4 p.m. to 11:30 p.m. on Thursday and Friday; 11 a.m. to 11:30 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday. Hours should expand in early fall.

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Azul Marisco is open along the Chicago River near Elston - Eater Chicago

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