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Category Archives: Republican

Four reasons why Nikki Haley may be staying in the race for the Republican nomination | Brookings – Brookings Institution

Posted: January 25, 2024 at 11:26 am

By the time the polls closed in New Hampshire the conventional wisdom had solidified former President Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination and have the long-anticipated rematch against Biden. The conventional wisdom is based on a set of hard facts. Not only did Haley not win New Hampshire she didnt come within 10 points of Trump. Her next stop is South Carolina a state created by the late Republican strategist Lee Atwater to be a firewall for Ronald Reagan or for any conservative who gets sidetracked by the Republicans up north. Also, this is Haleys home state, and she is running about 30 points behind Trump. Losing is bad. Losing in your home state is worse.

After South Carolina comes Super Tuesday and its large number of delegates. Seven of the primaries that day about half are closed primaries; meaning that only Republicans can vote in them depriving Haley of the independents who made up more than half of her New Hampshire vote. In addition, the Republican party allows states to adopt winner take all type rules. On Super Tuesday two states, Alaska and Colorado, allocate delegates to candidates proportionally the remaining states use some sort of winner take all or winner take most system. For instance, in delegate rich California, if a candidate wins 50% of the vote, they get all the delegates. If not, the delegates are awarded proportionally. In a two-person race Trump is likely to win many delegates.

Against these odds the big question is why is Nikki Haley staying in?

On election night she decided to speak early, concede the race, and give a straight from the heart speech about her plans to go forward. As she reminded the crowd, New Hampshire is the first state not the last. Of course, theres a full month before the next showdown in South Carolina and she might upon reflection change her mind. In the meantime here are some possible reasons for staying in.

We dont know yet how much money Haley has in the bank but in the fall serious deep pocketed Republicans like the Koch brothers got in the race behind her. Super Tuesday is very expensive with big states like California and Texas, but Haley may think she has a sufficient war chest. In the next month she will see if the money keeps coming in or if her backers get cold feet and pull out.

In the months before the convention Trump may be convicted of one or more crimes. Its hard to predict how his loyal base will react. So far Trumps indictments have only made them more loyal and theres no reason to believe that convictions would change their minds. Nonetheless a conviction would certainly play into Haleys critique of him as the chaos candidate. And she may be thinking shed be the last person standing.

This would leave Haley as the I told you so candidate and pave the way for her to be the generational change and the leader of the post-Trump Republican Party setting her up to run in 2028. Running for a major party nomination is a grueling and difficult process. But Haley is only 52 years old and with one campaign under her belt she could be a formidable candidate in 2028.

He could repeat the shambolic presidency of this first term, he could prove to be more organized and efficacious or both. It probably wouldnt matter since the Constitution limits presidents to 2 four-year terms, and he would not be able to run again in any event. Haley could still be a front-runner for 2028.

There is, however, the possibility that staying in could backfire on Haley. Its possible that her New Hampshire showing was her high-water mark and that embarrassing finishes down the road will hurt her future prospects. And/or she could earn the wrath of Trumps supporters who like Trump could get very angry at her for staying in.

Nonetheless, at 52 she has broken into the national stage and has what Donald Trump at 77 does not have time.

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Four reasons why Nikki Haley may be staying in the race for the Republican nomination | Brookings - Brookings Institution

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The United Auto Workers union endorsed Biden today – NPR

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President Biden is greeted by Shawn Fain, President of the United Auto Workers. The union endorsed Biden's reelection bid on Wednesday. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption

President Biden is greeted by Shawn Fain, President of the United Auto Workers. The union endorsed Biden's reelection bid on Wednesday.

The United Auto Workers endorsed President Biden's reelection campaign on Wednesday in a fiery speech from its president, Shawn Fain. Fain said Biden had earned the nod with his pro-union policies and went on to excoriate former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican race, for his past actions and statements.

Fain showed a highlight reel of Biden walking the picket line outside a General Motors facility in Wayne, Mich., the first time in modern history that a sitting president had done that.

He contrasted Biden's actions with what Trump did during a 40-day strike in 2019, displaying a blank slide to the ballroom of cheering union members. "He said nothing, he did nothing, not a damn thing, because he doesn't care about the American worker," Fain said.

"Donald Trump is a scab," Fain said. "Donald Trump stands against everything we stand for as a union, as a society."

"So that's a choice we face. It's not about who you like, it's not about your party. It's not this bulls*** about age. It's not about anything but our best shot at taking back power for the working class," he said.

President Biden was the first sitting president in modern history to walk a picket line with striking workers. Evan Vucci/Associated Press hide caption

President Biden was the first sitting president in modern history to walk a picket line with striking workers.

In the 2016 election, Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, in part with a message to workers hurt by free trade agreements.

But Biden won those key states in 2020, in part because he made gains among white working class voters and won a majority of union households. It's a strategy his campaign is seeking to repeat this year, which makes the UAW endorsement key.

While other major U.S. unions were quick to endorse his campaign last year, the UAW which represents nearly 400,000 members held back. Fain said that the union's endorsements were "going to be earned and not freely given."

Then came the UAW's six-week strike last year with the Big Three automakers, and Biden's full-throated support for the union.

"I was so damn proud to stand on that picket line with you," Biden said on Wednesday. "You made sure the automobile future of the world will be made in America."

Fain also reminded members how Biden supported a UAW push to save a plant in Belvidere, Ill. "Instead of talking trash about our union, Joe Biden stood with us, and supported our historic victory to save Belvidere, and save that community," Fain said, recalling how Trump in 2008 had blamed unions for the crisis in the auto industry.

Aside from a brief protest from a few audience members who disrupted Biden's speech to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, the crowd seemed to largely back the union's endorsement of Biden.

"I think he's the best we have to represent our interests and the working class's interests," said Bob Reynolds, a retiree from Ford's Buffalo Stamping Plant.

While he's concerned about climate change, Reynolds said he is concerned about the speed of the transition to electric vehicles, which the Biden administration has made a top priority. Still, he's optimistic that the cars of the future will be built by UAW workers.

"We're organizing more and more. The union jobs are there if we can organize them," he said.

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The United Auto Workers union endorsed Biden today - NPR

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After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump – The New York Times

Posted: at 11:26 am

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican and die-hard ally of former President Donald J. Trump, was exasperated with her colleagues as she left the House floor last Thursday evening.

I dont know if its sunk in this place around here, Ms. Greene vented as she headed for the elevators and then for Manchester, N.H., where she was stumping for the former president. Ive been telling everyone that President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party; hes going to be our presidential nominee. Its time for all Republicans to get behind his policies.

If it hadnt sunk in yet, it has now.

After Mr. Trump won the New Hampshire primary by 11 percentage points on Tuesday night following his steamrolling victory in the Iowa caucuses, the small segment of Republicans in Congress who had tried to distance themselves from him, ignore him, cast doubt on his staying power or condemn him have begun swiftly falling into line behind him. And this time, it is happening even faster than it did in 2016, when Mr. Trump first subsumed his party.

In the Senate, at least 29 Republicans more than half the conference have now endorsed Mr. Trump, compared with zero for the lone Republican challenger still standing, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who vowed on Tuesday night to carry on with her campaign despite outlining no clear path to victory.

In the Republican-controlled House, which has acted as Mr. Trumps sword and shield, vulnerable Republicans who represent districts President Biden won in 2020 are speed walking to the Trump bandwagon, where their MAGA-loving colleagues are greeting them with an I told you so.

Two of them, Representatives Brandon Williams and Nick LaLota of New York, said that Mr. Trump was the partys inevitable nominee and that they fully supported the voters choice. Representative John Duarte, a California Republican whose district Mr. Biden won in 2020 by almost 11 points, told Axios that he expected to ultimately endorse Donald Trump for president.

Tim Miller, who worked as a top adviser to former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, said it wasnt hard to understand why.

Trump slaughtered Nikki Haley among self-identified Republicans last night, he said. Republicans want Trump. The politicians arent fighting it anymore. Its what their voters want, and they have given up on any pretense of fighting their impulses or trying to lead them a different direction.

The dynamic could have an immediate impact on the agenda in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats have been grasping for an elusive compromise to pair a clampdown on migration at the southern border with an aid package for Ukraine. Mr. Trump has savaged the emerging deal as too weak on immigration, and as lawmakers line up behind his candidacy, they appear more unlikely to defy him on his signature issue particularly in the Republican-controlled House.

And in the Senate, where top Republicans have been split over Mr. Trumps candidacy, resistance is melting away. Perhaps the most surprising lawmaker to join the growing queue of Trump endorsers on Tuesday night was Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, who is one of three lawmakers vying to succeed Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as the partys leader.

I am proud of our accomplishments in President Trumps first term, Mr. Cornyn wrote in a post on social media that omitted any praise of the candidate himself but called him the Republican voters choice. His endorsement came just months after he told The Houston Chronicle that Trumps time has passed him by, and that a successful general election candidate needed to appeal to voters beyond the MAGA base.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Senate Republican who has been an outspoken critic of Mr. Trump, took a similar approach on Wednesday, withholding any accolades for the former president but conceding that he appeared to be marching toward the G.O.P. nomination. Mr. Thune told reporters that Mr. Trump was in a commanding position, and Ive said all along Ill endorse the nominee. So if hes the nominee, Ill do what I can to help the team win the presidency.

Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming and the No. 3 Senate Republican who is also in the quiet Senate race for party leader, stated plainly earlier this month: We need Donald Trump back in the White House.

Mr. McConnell himself has been silent, telling reporters at a news conference ahead of the New Hampshire primary that everyone was watching New Hampshire with great interest, but saying nothing on Wednesday after Mr. Trump won.

The rush to fall in line, yet again, has a surreal yet inevitable quality this time around. It has been eight years since Mr. Trump first vanquished 16 other candidates in the Republican primary, and was eventually embraced by the very G.O.P. lawmakers who had expressed deep concerns about his ability to serve as commander in chief. It has been three years since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, when many Republicans who feared for their lives that day initially blamed Mr. Trump for the violence but quickly reversed course and defended him.

I really would have thought that Jan. 6 would have been a clean break and Im surprised that its not, said Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia. I dont get it.

Democrats have rushed to capitalize on the dynamic, arguing that voters will punish Republicans who ally themselves with Mr. Trump and cost the party its House majority.

Donald Trump called it when he said that Republicans across the country would all bend the knee and declare their fealty to him no matter how toxic he is, Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said. Now were watching it happen in real time as party leaders are pressuring candidates across the country to fall in line.

But Republicans appear to have concluded, once again, that it is too difficult to forge a viable path in G.O.P. politics that does not include a tight embrace of Mr. Trump.

Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, beat a Trump-backed candidate in 2022 thanks, at least in part, to the backing of Ms. Haley, who campaigned with her. After Jan. 6, Ms. Mace claimed that all of Mr. Trumps accomplishments had been wiped out by his behavior during the mob attack. In response, Mr. Trump called her a grandstanding loser.

As she has tried to plot her own political future, Ms. Mace has wrestled for months with how to deal with the pesky Trump issue. Ill support the nominee thats what I say, she said in April, when discussing how to triangulate around Mr. Trump, whom she did not want to support. And then I shut up.

That was then.

A day before the New Hampshire primary, Ms. Mace said she was backing Mr. Trump for president. On Tuesday night, she showed up with her Havanese dog, Liberty, at the Trump campaign headquarters in Charleston to celebrate what she called the historic New Hampshire win!

Senator Susan Collins of Maine was among the few Republican senators who said that she did not see herself ever endorsing Mr. Trump, going so far as to commend Ms. Haley for staying in the race.

The more people see her, since she appears to be the only alternative to Donald Trump right now, the more impressed they will be, Ms. Collins said on Wednesday. But even she declined to formally endorse Ms. Haley, saying she was personal friends with many of the other Republican presidential candidates who have since dropped out of the race.

On the right, though, Mr. Trump also was quickly coalescing the support of the tiny group of lawmakers who had tried experimenting with an alternative. Representative Bob Good of Virginia, the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, had endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for president. But within minutes of Mr. DeSantiss pulling the plug on his own bid ahead of the New Hampshire primary, Mr. Good rushed to right that wrong.

It is my privilege to provide my complete and total endorsement for Donald J. Trump as the 47th president of the United States, Mr. Good wrote online. President Trump was the greatest president of my lifetime, and we need him to reinstate the policies that were working so well for America.

Representative Chip Roy, Republican of Texas, who campaigned for Mr. DeSantis through the bitter end, was inching his way back into the fold on Tuesday night.

Trump supporters rightly just want their country back and he listens to them, he wrote online. Its his core strength.

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After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump - The New York Times

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Kari Lake is running for U.S. Senate from Arizona. The AZGOP tried to stop her. – NPR

Posted: at 11:26 am

Arizona Republican U.S. senate candidate Kari Lake, arrives for an evening rally with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, during the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary on Tuesday. David Goldman/AP hide caption

Arizona Republican U.S. senate candidate Kari Lake, arrives for an evening rally with Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, during the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary on Tuesday.

The head of the Arizona Republican Party resigned Wednesday following the release of a surreptitiously recorded conversation of him seemingly trying to bribe Kari Lake to stay out of this year's U.S. Senate race.

A 10-minute audio recording, published by the Daily Mail of London on Tuesday, revealed a conversation between Lake, a Trump loyalist who unsuccessfully ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, and Arizona Republican Party Chair Jeff DeWit. In it, DeWit appears to offers Lake various deals to be put on a company payroll, or financial compensation in exchange for taking "a pause for a couple of years" from running for public office.

"There are very powerful people who want to keep you out, and what they're willing to do is put their money where their mouth is in a big way," DeWit said.

It's not illegal, or unheard of, for top party officials to attempt to clear the field of unfavorable candidates in order to pave the way for a preferred alternative. In the audio recording, DeWit raised concerns about Lake's ability to fundraise enough money to win the U.S. Senate race, as well as former President Donald Trump's ability to win another election and by association, Lake's own electability.

"I'm not even sure Trump can win again," DeWit said. "I don't know that he can win."

But DeWit also appeared well aware of the optics of attempting to buy off Lake, a MAGA firebrand with a national profile. In the recording, he repeatedly cast himself as a messenger for powerful people "back East" and asked for Lake's discretion.

"This conversation never happened," DeWit said.

"If you say no, which is fine, it's your choice, don't tell people," he added.

In this file photo, former Arizona State Treasurer Jeff DeWit steps into an elevator at Trump Tower on Nov. 15, 2016, in New York. Arizona Republicans selected DeWit to be the party's chairman in 2023. On Wednesday, he resigned amid a seeming bribery scandal with Republican U.S. senate candidate Kari Lake. Carolyn Kaster/AP hide caption

In this file photo, former Arizona State Treasurer Jeff DeWit steps into an elevator at Trump Tower on Nov. 15, 2016, in New York. Arizona Republicans selected DeWit to be the party's chairman in 2023. On Wednesday, he resigned amid a seeming bribery scandal with Republican U.S. senate candidate Kari Lake.

In a statement released Wednesday, DeWit accused Lake of being the Daily Mail's unidentified source. He denied he attempted to bribe Lake, and instead characterized the conversation as "an open, unguarded exchange between friends" that Lake recorded in a violation of his trust.

DeWit also said the audio recording provided to the Daily Mail was "selectively edited." By his own characterization, DeWit was advising Lake to postpone her U.S. Senate campaign and instead focus on running for governor again in 2026.

"It was a suggestion made in good faith, believing it could benefit both her future prospects and the party's overall strategy," DeWit said. "The release of our conversation by Lake confirms a disturbing tendency to exploit private interactions for personal gain."

DeWit went on to raise concerns that Lake may have a trove of secret recordings from conversations with other GOP officials, including Trump.

In this file photo from 2022, then-Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, right, speaks as former President Donald Trump listens during a rally in Oct. 2022, in Mesa, Ariz. Matt York/AP hide caption

In this file photo from 2022, then-Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, right, speaks as former President Donald Trump listens during a rally in Oct. 2022, in Mesa, Ariz.

"I question how effective a United States Senator can be when they cannot be trusted to engage in private and confidential conversations," he said.

Lake made it clear she has more recordings of conversations with DeWit in his statement, DeWit said Lake issued an ultimatum for him to resign Wednesday or "face the release of new, more damaging recordings."

A spokesperson for Lake's U.S. Senate campaign could not immediately be reached for comment. Lake, who has denied that she was the Daily Mail's source, publicly called for DeWit's resignation on Tuesday, telling KTAR that the audio was "reprehensible."

The leak of the conversation, which the Daily Mail reported took place in March 2023, comes ahead of a crucial juncture for the Arizona Republican Party. Trump will headline a fundraising rally for the Arizona GOP on Friday, the eve of the party's annual organizing meeting on Saturday.

The party will now have to choose a successor for DeWit, whose tenure as party chair has been marred by financial struggles following repeated statewide losses for the Republican Party under the previous chair, Kelli Ward.

Lake is the leading candidate to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona, having already secured Trump's endorsement when she announced her candidacy last fall. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego is vying for his own party's nomination, while it remains unclear if incumbent Sen. Krysten Sinema a former Democrat turned independent will run for reelection.

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Kari Lake is running for U.S. Senate from Arizona. The AZGOP tried to stop her. - NPR

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New Hampshire exit polls: Republicans were just half of voters in their own primary – Reuters.com

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New Hampshire exit polls: Republicans were just half of voters in their own primary  Reuters.com

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New Hampshire exit polls: Republicans were just half of voters in their own primary - Reuters.com

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Trump wins 2024 New Hampshire primary – The Associated Press

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Trump wins 2024 New Hampshire primary  The Associated Press

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Trump wins 2024 New Hampshire primary - The Associated Press

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NH primary plays outsized role in determining future of the Republican Party – NPR

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Former President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters at the end of a campaign rally on Jan. 14 in Concord, N.H. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption

Former President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters at the end of a campaign rally on Jan. 14 in Concord, N.H.

MANCHESTER, N.H. When New Hampshire voters head to the polls Tuesday, they will not only be picking a nominee.

Their choice between former President Donald Trump and his former U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley, will also send a big signal about their feelings on the future of the party.

Luke Rose, a 26-year-old casino dealer, was bowling with co-workers at Yankee Lanes, a downtown Manchester bowling alley. Between turns, he described the way he views the conflict as being between what he calls the "MAGA idealism" of Trump and traditional conservative values of Haley.

He's convinced Trump's way will win out.

"The message that will be sent [on Tuesday] is that Trump has officially been chosen. He's the one," Rose predicted. "And beyond that, we have to prepare ourselves, whether we like it or not, for a MAGA America or a Biden America."

Luke Rose, 26, spends evening bowling with some friends in Manchester, NH on Jan. 21, 2024. Franco Ordoez /National Public Radio hide caption

Luke Rose, 26, spends evening bowling with some friends in Manchester, NH on Jan. 21, 2024.

The tightening race has thrown a spotlight on the identity crisis within the Republican party and the debate between populism and small-government conservatism.

Ever since Donald Trump rode down the escalator in Trump Tower, the Republican party has been struggling to figure out what it stood for.

The more establishment, anti-Trump, forces within the party have long been clamoring for this choice, said Alex Conant, who helped lead Senator Marco Rubio's presidential campaign in 2016.

The choice is between Trump who is the embodiment of the new wave of conservative populism and Haley who more represents the limited government wing of the party that also supports strong foreign policy.

Conant acknowledges the party has already moved so far away from its traditional values since Trump's rise.

"The New Hampshire primary is the last hurdle for Donald Trump to demonstrate that the Republican Party is a populist party now," Conant said. "And that the limited government, traditional conservatives that Nikki Haley represents do not have any real power within the party."

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to potential voters during a campaign stop in Hooksett, New Hampshire. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to potential voters during a campaign stop in Hooksett, New Hampshire.

The Trump campaign says there was never any doubt whose party it is.

Jason Miller, a senior advisor on the campaign says Trump has not only unified the base behind him, but he's also brought in new coalition of voters and expanded the party.

"What President Trump has done to show that the populism and working class Americans now side with the Republican Party," Miller said.

Phil Palker says he's one of those Americans. The 59-year-transportation worker, and former Coast Guard navigator, says Trump changed the party and he evolved with the former president.

Trump connects with voters like him in a way that no other politicians have before, Palker said.

"You know, I was pretty stagnant Republican," he said. "But ever since Donald Trump started running in 2015, I think his message is revealing to who the party is."

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NH primary plays outsized role in determining future of the Republican Party - NPR

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House Republicans now have one of the smallest majorities in history – NBC News

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House Republicans now have one of the smallest majorities in history  NBC News

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House Republicans now have one of the smallest majorities in history - NBC News

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Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable – The Guardian US

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Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable  The Guardian US

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Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable - The Guardian US

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Trump wins New Hampshire primary, further solidifying path to 2024 presidential election – Axios

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Trump wins New Hampshire primary, further solidifying path to 2024 presidential election  Axios

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