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Welcome to Political Outliers, a column that explores groups of Americans who are often portrayed as all voting the same way. In todays climate, its easy to focus on how a group identifies politically, but thats never the full story. Blocs of voters are rarely uniform in their beliefs, which is why this column will dive into undercovered parts of the electorate, showing how diverse and atypical most voters are.

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Jonathan M. remembers seeing the signs clearly: One for the Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-backed Greg Casar and another, near it, for Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who was running for a neighboring district.

Yard placards for both progressive Democratic politicians, he said, were littered throughout his neighborhood in Austin, Texas in the lead-up to the states primary elections in March. On the one hand, this shouldnt be surprising: Austin likened to a blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup at least once by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is known for its deep blue hue. But as a Republican, Jonathan M., who preferred to only use his first name and last initial out of privacy concerns, didnt plan to vote for either candidate.

In fact, the self-described classical conservative told me that he voted in the Republican primary in last months elections. But voters like Jonathan M. are somewhat of a rare breed in Austin. According to countywide voting records, only about 6 percent of registered voters in Travis County, where Austin primarily sits, voted in the states Republican primary, compared to almost 13 percent who cast a ballot in the Democratic one. (Turnout was low, however, like in most primaries.)

But its not just raw voting numbers that have helped Jonathan M. feel like an outlier: He said it took a drive down a major highway or perusal online to find even a handful of ads for Republican candidates. And even then, only marquee races, like the one for governor, were heavily advertised.

This primary cycle, I didnt see any Republican signs in my area, but in 2020 I saw a lot of signs for Rep. Chip Roy, he said, referencing the Austin-area Republican who once worked for Sen. Ted Cruz and has since become a conservative firebrand in the U.S. House. For big races, I feel like theres a lot more campaigning by Republicans here, but theres almost nothing happening for local races and, as a result, I feel like a lot of Democrats run unopposed.

Some of this is to be expected given just how much the U.S. sorts itself along geographic lines, with Democrats preferring to live in cities versus Republicans, who increasingly opt to call smaller towns or rural areas home. But this ideological sorting has still created a situation where many Republicans who live in the suburbs and bluer cities feel like outliers in their communities much like Democrats living in Trump country. Some of the voters we spoke with would tease their ideological preferences (through having a GOP candidates bumper sticker on their car, for instance), but most have kept their political opinions to themselves. Several expressed having trouble finding friends with similar values who live close to them, and many felt like their party had largely given up on campaigning in their area of town.

That said, there was one bright spot that helped many of the five Republicans and independent voters who have previously supported Republican candidates I spoke with feel more upbeat: the upcoming midterm elections. Expecting their party to likely flip the U.S. House, and maybe pick up a few seats in the U.S. Senate, was a way for them to reconcile their political identity even if representation wasnt going to change where they lived.

I am more excited about the national results than the local races, Charlie C., a 28-year-old self-proclaimed staunch conservative from St. Anthony, Minnesota, who only wanted to be identified by his first name and last initial, told me. I am hoping that this years results are reminiscent of the Tea Party red wave from 2014.

Its been some time, though, since Republicans like Charlie C. likely felt this way as counties including the one he currently lives in have steadily gotten bluer. In fact, thats been the case with practically all urban-suburban counties in the U.S.: From 2000 to 2020, urban-suburban counties have moved nearly 17 points toward Democrats, among them are Hennepin County and Ramsey County (where St. Anthony resides), according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of county-level election data since 2000 categorized using our Urbanization Index.

Not all suburban counties have swung so dramatically toward Democrats. For instance, mostly suburban counties have moved from about 50-50 in 2000 to just a 10-point Democratic edge in 2020. But suburban and urban areas have, on average, moved toward Democrats. Whats more, they comprise a large share of the nations voting power: In 2020, urban-suburban or mostly suburban counties made up almost 52 percent of the total vote.

I have yet to place a vote for a single political candidate at the state or national level such that my vote helped them gain office, Charlie C. admitted. I am a conservative who wonders if [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz is far enough to the right in a district that elected [Rep.] Ilhan Omar.

Part of the issue for voters like Charlie C. is that Democrats have expanded their foothold in the suburban areas of the U.S. particularly during former President Donald Trumps tenure. According to Pew, suburbanites backed Trump narrowly over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 points in 2016. But in 2018, Democrats took back control of the House thanks, in part, to the significant inroads they made in Americas suburbs and, by 2020, President Biden won suburban voters over Trump by 11 percentage points.

Jan Nijman, the director of the Urban Studies Institute at Georgia State University, told me part of the swing toward Democrats can be attributed to the changing demographics of the suburbs, including an increase in the number of college-educated and nonwhite voters living there. Weve seen most of our population growth in the U.S. in areas wed think of as suburban. And just that simple fact means theres now more diversity in those places, Nijman said. Another consequence of the suburbs becoming more economically and racially diverse, particularly in the last two decades, is that [theyve] become the most dynamic places in the electoral landscape, Nijman said.

It wasnt always like this, though. In fact, suburbs were once the desired destination for those looking to flee more diverse, urban areas especially for more conservative white voters. In the 1950s and 60s, Nijman told me, suburbia was understood as a place that was quite homogeneous and predictable, meaning that the people attracted to suburbs at the time were solidly middle-class and Republican-leaning. Thats changed over the last 20 or so years, however, as the suburbs have become more welcoming for people of color and immigrants both of whom tend to be more liberal politically. As a result, on average, the suburbs now lean toward Democrats, leaving some Republicans who live in these areas feeling neglected by the GOP. Its possible that the GOP may make some inroads in 2022, particularly in counties classified as mostly suburban, but those areas have still overwhelmingly moved toward Democrats since 2000.

I definitely feel abandoned by the state party and like theyve kind of given up on Atlanta, said Michael A., a 25-year-old who preferred to only use his first name and last initial out of privacy concerns. For the past few years or so, theyve stopped talking about issues that matter in the metro area like how high our taxes are or how the cost of living has gone up dramatically. Theyre really focused on the rural areas more now, which I understand, but there are still a lot of Republican voters in my area who feel unheard.

That said, even though their communities are moving left, some Republicans I spoke with said theyre moving further right. A handful of my interviewees pointed to the protests for racial justice in the summer of 2020 following the murder of George Floyd as a turning point. Democratic calls at the time to radically shift police policy, including a reduction in police budgets, turned off many Republicans I spoke with.

If I wasnt conservative before 2020, I wouldve been a hardcore one after that summer, said Chris Germiller, a 28-year-old from Rockville, Maryland. For many reasons, that was the worst time of my life due to the constant onslaught of everyone I knew pretending they were a criminologist and prescribing insane policy solutions toward policing. That summer pushed me, emotionally, more to the right.

Part of Germillers frustration likely stems from the fact that, on average, suburban and urban residents hold more liberal views on issues of racism and racial justice than rural Americans. According to a 2018 Pew survey, 69 percent of urban residents and 60 percent of suburban ones (compared to 47 percent of rural dwellers) said they believed that white Americans benefit from certain privileges that Black Americans dont have. And while many of the Republicans I spoke with said they believe racism still plays a prominent role in todays society, they didnt think reducing or eliminating law enforcement was the answer.

Ideas like defund the police are just crazy to me. Why would you defund the police? said Liliana S., a 49-year-old Denver, Colorado resident who was born in Venezuela and preferred to only use her first name and last initial out of privacy concerns. I come from a country where police are not funded and not respected. The result is you get a bunch of mafia and drug lords and common thieves running the country.

Of course, some of the shift to the left on policing is overstated and its possible that, while these Republicans are outliers in some of their views toward policing, they might have more in common with their liberal neighbors than they realize. For example, prominent leaders in the Democratic Party, including Biden, have emphatically dismissed calls to defund the police. Moreover, polls suggest that voters regardless of where they live dont want to cut funding to police departments. According to a June 2020 Morning Consult survey, less than half of suburban dwellers (43 percent) supported redirecting police funds to communities, while 28 percent were in favor of defund the police. A September poll from Pew also showed a significant decline in overall support for cutting police funding.

Still, defund the police has become a motivating issue for Republican voters. This is, in part, because GOP lawmakers have capitalized on the movement and successfully tied it to unsubstantiated fears regarding an increase in violent crime regardless of whether thats actually happening. In addition, several cities took steps in 2020 to change policing that Republicans said rubbed them the wrong way.

Jonathan M., for example, said he was disappointed when Austins City Council voted that year to slash part of the citys police budget, which it was later forced to refund amid pressure from the states Republican governor. For a while, though, he claimed that he heard numerous stories from neighbors who were robbed or burglarized, but who were still hesitant to call the police for assistance. Some people are against calling the cops because they think it will result in escalation of the issue, he said. I disagree, of course, but knowing how my neighbors feel about these things makes me more reserved, and I try to keep a distance from those conversations.

This has exacerbated a belief among people I spoke with that Democrats (and, in turn, their respective cities) have moved even further to the left, specifically on issues related to race and public safety. And many of the Republicans I talked to say they no longer feel like they can have constructive conversations with their neighbors and coworkers about policies they disagree on a sentiment that Democrats living in rural areas of the U.S. felt, too.

Its tough to grow a friend circle. Admittedly, Im a bit of an introvert to begin with, but even at work, its tough to talk about anything other than shop because this is a left-leaning area, Charlie C., the conservative voter in Minnesota, said.

But even though Republicans like Charlie C. might feel like outsiders now, there are signs that 2022 will likely be a good year for Republicans nationally. And because some of the areas my interviewees lived in arent as blue as some rural areas are red, its possible these Republicans will even see some political changes in their areas, especially those in more suburban or exurban areas.

You know, even if the Republican Party isnt going to win Fulton County anytime soon, there are hundreds of thousands of Republican voters in urban areas and if you get them excited, theyre going to put you over the finish line, said Michael A., who noted that hes seen a handful of bumper stickers for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in recent weeks.

Indeed, 2022 offers prime pick-up opportunities for Republicans: According to our generic ballot average, which tracks which party people plan to vote for in the upcoming congressional election Republicans currently lead Democrats by about 2 percentage points. Moreover, since much of the previous suburban shift toward Democrats in 2018 and 2020 appears to have been driven by disdain for Trump, its not clear whether these gains will hold without him on the ballot. This is evident in polling from Reuters/Ipsos which has found that Biden is struggling to hold suburban voters since coming into office last year: Only 44 percent said they approve of his job as president as of last week down nearly 7 points since around this time last year.

Polling from Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released in January tells a similar story. It found that 57 percent of suburban respondents were more likely to vote for a Republican candidate in the midterms, versus 43 percent who said theyd be more likely to vote for a Democratic one. Whats also working in the GOPs favor is that the party so far has capitalized on an enticing pitch to rile up voters: highlighting culture war issues and broad disapproval with the Biden administration. On top of that, Glenn Youngkins win in Virginia last year suggests that its possible for certain Republicans to win competitive states including parts of the suburbs with the right roadmap.

That means Republicans in blue cities and suburbs might have reason to be optimistic for November, especially since 2022 will likely serve as a test of sorts for how durable suburban gains have been and whether well see a lurch back to the right. Of course, that wont change the makeup of some very urban areas that have voted solidly Democratic for the last two decades or so, but it does mean that some of these Republicans might not be the outliers that they think they are.

Charlie C. put it plainly: Its less that the GOP has abandoned [my] area, and more that they are out-gunned. They dont have the ability to mobilize in every district, he said. I realize I am in enemy territory. Im just hoping to be able to minimize some of the damage.

Geoffrey Skelley contributed research.

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Why Republicans In Blue Cities Are Increasingly Outliers - FiveThirtyEight

A poster of Emmanuel Macron deteriorates after the results of the first round of the presidential election on April 11, 2022 in Lyon. (Robert Deyrail / Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

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Noisy-le-Sec, FranceFatima, 44, works in sales. She doesnt follow politics much and didnt vote in the first round of Frances presidential election, but she knows theres an important choice to make on April 24. President Emmanuel Macron is facing reelection against far-right challenger Marine Le Penand its a much tighter race than in 2017, when he trounced her by 32 percentage points. Current polls show him leading by just about six points.

Its going to be hard, she told me. As a Muslim, well be forced to choose Macron out of a fear for the future instead of support for the person.

Le Pen has called for an outright ban on wearing the Islamic veil in publicpenalizing the way Fatima is dressed right nowbut Fatima said she isnt sure yet whether shell vote at all. None of them keep their word, thats just how it is, she told me. We just follow, and we suffer the consequences.

A 20-minute ride east on the commuter rail line from central Paris, Noisy-le-Sec is exactly the sort of place that Macron hopes to carry in large numbers in the second round. Like much of the mostly working-class dpartement of Seine-Saint-Denis, its home to a large population of immigrants and recent descendants of people born abroad. Turnout tends to be low and political disaffection runs deep, but when the citys 40,000 residents do vote, they lean leftward. Noisy-le-Sec overwhelmingly backed left populist Jean-Luc Mlenchon in the first-roundand in the runoff the last time around, voters heavily supported Macron over Le Pen, doing their part to uphold the so-called Republican front that also beat back the far right in 2002.

This time, though, Macrons coalition is looking a lot flimsier.

Of course, a big factor is that a large shareof Frances radicalized conservative electorate plan to vote for Le Pen. (Polls show a vast majority of first-round ric Zemmour supporters, and many Valrie Pcresse supporters will shift their support to the RN candidate.)

And yet, opinion surveys also show a bloc of disillusioned and left-leaning voters withholding support for the incumbent, struggling to find the motivation to show up: people like Fatima alienated by politics in general; those harmed by Macrons economic reforms and angered by his conservative turn on social policy; civil servants and public sector workers with simmering resentments over funding and the state of their workplaces; and those with sympathies for the Yellow Vest movement, protests that began in 2018 over a proposed hike in the fuel tax that evolved into mass protests decrying the rising cost-of-living and broader sense of neglect faced by residents of rural and peripheral France. Current Issue

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Largely ignored by Macron over the course of his five-year term, its these voters who could shape the outcome of the election.

Marie Laure Mallgol, 36, works in tech in La Dfense, the central business district of the French capital, but she lives in Montreuil, a large city bordering Paris to the east. Like a majority of voters there, she cast a first-round ballot for Mlenchon, and while she voted for Macron in the runoff last time, she vowed not to do it againjust like her brother and her parents.

Its out of the question to vote for Macron again after the five years weve seen, said Mallgol, whose parents immigrated to France from Haiti. Its up to white people to stand up and say no to fascism, but its not up to us to go and vote.

When I asked about her anger toward Macron, she rolled off a laundry list of issues: the continued presence in government of Grald Darmanin, the interior minister who once teased Marine Le Pen about going soft on Islamism in a nationally televised debate; the French states treatment of migrants in Calais; the passage of a law designed to crack down on Muslim separatism; a national security law that sought to penalize the filming of police officers before the measure was struck down by Frances Constitutional Court; members and allies of the government who have railed against wokisme and portrayed anti-racist rhetoric as an import from the United States. Hes going to win, I hope hell win, she said. All the semi-normal white people in this country will go and vote for him, but itll be close.

The only thing that would maybe make me go vote for Macron, Mallgol continued, is if he recognized in front of everyone whats happened and says, Its my fault, I put Le Pen at the center, but hell never do this.

Macrons economic reforms also have left-leaning voters feeling bitter. Like many in her age group, Romy voted for Mlenchon in the first round. The 26-year-old works in sales, earning 1,400 to 1,500 ($1,525 to $1,634) a month after taxes and Social Security contributions, and lives in the suburb of Lognes, 40 minutes east of Paris on the commuter train. She voted Macron in the last runoff but doesnt plan on doing so again. Instead, shes planning to cast a blank ballota protest vote meant to show her opposition to both options. I think its bad to vote for a president through spite, she said. I believe in none of his ideas and almost nothing in his program or what hes done over the last five years.

She said Macrons economic policies favor people who already have a lotin particular, his move to transform the wealth tax, which used to apply to people with at least 1.3 million in assets, into a more limited levy on real estate. I have pretty high taxes for what I earn, and today my purchasing power is basically zero, Romy said.

She disagrees with Macrons recent proposal to hike the retirement age from 62 to 65widely seen as a way of consolidating support from right-wing voters ahead of the election, though he has since floated the possibility of reconsidering the measure. Ive been working since I was 16, and now I have to wait until Im 65 [to retire]?

Romy said the presidents reforms aimed at tightening access to unemployment benefits affected her mother, who was working a temporary job at a restaurant when the Covid lockdowns upended the sector. After the phase-in of the new rules, which gradually took effect in late 2021, her mom lost her rights to unemployment benefits.

Romys mother is an immigrant from Portugal and said neither of them would ever vote for the far rightbut that the differences between Le Pen and Macron have blurred. For me, on social issues, theyre about the same.

She told me that she might vote for Macron if the polls show Le Pen within striking distance, but that either way, the debate is far removed from things that matter. [My friends and I] care about the environment, she said. Politics today seem outdated and almost kind of infantile, its he said that, she said that. In the meantime, the planet is burning.

Another important source of anti-Macron sentiment is the public sector workforce. From health care and transportation to education and welfare, French public services play a fundamental role in many residents lives. While the country has largely avoided the type of direct privatizations that transformed the UK from the 1980s onward, French governments of various political stripes have progressively sought to keep funding in check in addition to introducing management techniques that come from the private sector. These pressures have intensified over the last several years, and its left many employed by the state feeling resentful toward the cabinet members and executive decision-makers who manage their work lives.

That includes people like Gabriel Lattanzio, a 37-year-old English teacher at a public high school in Les Lilas, a short bus ride from Noisy-le-Sec. He said he would never vote Le Penhis first political experience was organizing high school classmates to protest Marine Le Pens father after he made it to the second round of the 2002 election, and he voted for Mlenchon in the first round this year. He also backed Macron in the 2017 runoff, but hes not sure what hell do next Sunday. MORE FROM Cole Stangler

Over the last few years, he said his job has gotten harder and harder. Covid has been an unforeseen challenge; his school has grappled with gang violence; and hes been forced to take on new responsibilitiesall without significant pay hikes and under an education minister who he said fails to recognize teachers hard work: Our hierarchys authoritarianism and the repeated declarations describing teachers as incapable or lazy carry a lot of weight, as does [the fact that] high schools have been transformed by a lack of funding.

Lattanzio speaks English fluently, has studied in the United States, and keeps an eye on American politics. He told me comparisons to Bernie Sanders supporters sucking it up and voting against Donald Trump fail to appreciate the nature of Macronboth in terms of his economic program and conservative social policies. Hes no Biden, Lattanzio said. Hes like Thatcher. And its hard to vote for Thatcher.

Claire, 28, a resident of Nantes, feels similarly. She passed a competitive exam to become a civil servant and just completed her two-year posting in the overseas territory of French Polynesia, but more recently decided to take a communications job in the private sector, in part because the pay and working conditions are more attractive. She voted for Macron in the 2017 runoff, but plans to cast a blank ballot this time.

For me, its like choosing between the plague and cholera, she said. Over the last five years, Macron has governed without any recognition of the context in which he came to power. Hes just shat all over us. It hurts to see whats happened to public services.

Still, Claire said she could be swayed if Macron announced a significant policy shift to the leftor if last-minute anxieties take hold. Maybe Ill change my mind out of fear of Le Pens [National Rally] party, but for now, Ive decided to vote blank.

Hostility runs especially deep among those with sympathies for the Yellow Vest movementlike Annie and Acha. They both live in Perpignan, a Mediterranean city with a fair share of socioeconomic problems that the National Rally party captured in the 2020 municipal elections.

Acha, who used to work in watchmaking but now gets by on workers compensation after a hand injury, said shes voting for Le Pen. Angered by the repression of the Yellow Vests and the rollout of a nationwide health pass to fight Covid, she wanted Mlenchon to make the run-off but now just wants to kick out the current president. Besides, she said shes been pleased by the new mayor of Perpignan, Le Pens former partner who has a leading role in the party, Louis Aliot.

She wont be good, but shell be better than Macron, Aicha told me before referring to a few of Macrons more celebrated turns of phrase. Macron has been vulgar, telling us we just need to cross the street [to find work], and saying he wants to piss off the unvaccinated, its insulting.

Her friend Annie also loathes Macron but cant vote for Le Pen on principle: I wont vote for Marine Le Pen, because Im an anti-fascist, and we all know that behind Le Pen, theres fascism.

Despite all the hesitation, there are other left-wing voters for whom the choice on April 24 isnt complicated.

Lyes, a 51-year-old civil servant and payroll manager in Noisy-le-Sec who voted for Mlenchon, said theres no doubt what hell do next. Im going to bitterly vote for Macron, he told me on a busy avenue named for socialist Jean Jaurs, in front of a bakery selling baguettes and an array of sweets usually eaten around Ramadan. Im voting against Le Pen.

After arriving in France at age 2, Lyes said he feels more French than Algerian, but that Le Pen in power would be dangerous for foreigners. As many French legal experts and human rights groups have noted, Le Pen has called for a bevy of measures that are harsher than whats in place today: cutting off access to critical welfare programs for millions of non-French nationals; enhancing the legal basis for police to use deadly force; ending family reunification policies and birthright citizenship; imposing a legally dubious referendum that would override human rights protections by enshrining the principle of national preference into the Constitution.

When asked about other left-wing voters unsure about their vote, Lyes shook his head. No, no, thats silly.

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He Just Shat All over Us: Why Macrons Republican Front Is Fraying - The Nation

The Republican primary elections across the country starting next month will signal how much influence Donald Trump still has in the party, crudely measured by how well candidates backed by the former president fare. The GOP primaries will also be worth watching to see whether some of the demographic shifts of the 2020 presidential electionthe partys modest gains with Hispanic voters and its slight recovery with black voterswill translate to the midterms.

More than a few black Republican candidates this year sit at the intersection of those two questions about the GOPs future, having been endorsed by Trump and figuring to be key to keeping the black voters that trickled back into the party after more than a decade away. These congressional aspirants are part of a record classthe National Republican Congressional Committee reports that more than 80 black candidates are running in the partys primaries this year, the most in history. They hope to improve on the partys dismal ability to seat black members of Congress: In the last century, there have only been 9 black Republican representatives and 2 black Republican senators. To put this in perspective, there have been more black Democrats in each Congress since 1971 than the total number of black Republicans for the last 100 years.

What, then, accounts for the rush of black Republicans this cycle? The answer might be found in another striking statistic: Of the 10 black congressional Republicans in the last century (Tim Scott was in the House before being appointed to the Senate in 2013), more than half6 of 10took office after 2010, and two of them are freshmen in the current Congress. Why, when black voters support for Republican candidates has been at historic lows for the last 15 years, would there be twice as many black Republicans serving in Congress in that same time frame?

My sense of it is that recent black Republicans in Congress have benefited from the persistent capture of the party by movementsfirst the Tea Party, now Trumpism. And when black candidatesin fact, racial or ethnic minority candidates generallyare able to convey a deeper alignment with the capturing movement than white candidates, they greatly improve their chances of winning the party primary decided by an electorate where 9 in 10 voters are white.

Put simply, movements like the Tea Party and Trumpism deepen partisan identity and make it far easier to identify who youre for and who youre against, even to the point of overlooking other traditional cues. As such, a black candidate who leans heavily into the movements symbols, rhetoric, and harsh critiques of prominent Democrats not only becomes an acceptable avatar but also an aegis against accusations of racial intolerance within the movement itself. Further, donning the partisan identity with the recognizable features of contemporary movement conservatism works to mitigate the perception of black Americans as beholden to big government progressivism that places these candidates at a disadvantage in Republican primaries from the outset.

Precisely because they have been such a relative rarity in Congress over the last century, black Republicans have been the subject of much scholarly curiosity that has produced insights against which we can test such propositions. Political historian Leah Wright Rigueurs book, The Loneliness of the Black Republican, is the definitive work on how these partisans have had to reconcile the partys perception of black Americas interests with black peoples impression of the Republican party. And many others, myself included, have explored what sort of candidates, conditions, and appeals could elicit more competition between the parties for black voters.

To the question of why black Republicans have had more success in recent years, two studies are particularly helpful. In one study conducted by political scientists Trey Hood III and Seth McKee and published in 2015, they found that white conservatives are either more supportive of minority Republicans or just as likely to vote for a minority as they are a white Republican. Moreover, their research showed that white conservatives consider minority Republican candidates to be inherently more conservative, such that increasing levels of conservatism in white voters led to them being more supportive of the minority Republican candidates relative to white ones.

Building on this, four political scientists published a paper last year that demonstrated when black candidates send conservative cues, they can win the support of white voters who register higher levels of racial resentment (a term which I have written about in detail). They found that among Republican respondents, increasing levels of racial resentment are associated with an even higher probability of voting for a black Republican and a lower probability of voting for a black Democrat. One of their central findings is that when a black Republican candidate communicates and embodies an individualist message that highlights the value of hard work and self-determination, white racial conservatives in either party are more likely to support that candidate over a white one.

Trumpism makes the conservative cues easily recognizableMAGA hats, talk of a stolen election, scapegoating of liberal elites, fake news grievances, Lock Her Up chants, border wall obsessions, the demonization of anyone and anything that (D) can be placed next to, and the list goes on. A black Republican in this vein not only undercuts negative perceptions Republican voters may have but builds support from among that same cohort. The opportunity this realization creates is too attractive for a not-insignificant number of potential black candidates to ignore. And so, they run.

Two important points worth keeping in mind: First, running does not equate to winning. It simply isnt enough to be black and Republican with the right messaging. After all, the messenger still matters, and Herschel Walker is no Will Hurd.

Second, just because this analysis is laid out in terms of rhetoric and strategy and positioning does not mean that these black Republican candidates are all disingenuous. Some are certainly brazen opportunists; others are earnest and pragmaticwe can only judge them by their words and deeds.

What does this all mean for the prospects of the record number of black Republicans running? It is too early to say anything definitive, but we have a clue. One set of Republican primaries has already taken place in Texas, where a couple of black Republicans contended for governor and for a newly created congressional district. In the former, Allen West, the one-term representative who rode the Tea Party wave into Congress and Trumpism to the chair of the Texas GOP, was trounced by the incumbent and Trump-supported governor Greg Abbott, managing only 12.3 percent of the primary vote. Conversely, Wesley Hunt, a Trump-endorsed Army veteran proficient in the movements cues, handily won the primary in a district that is solidly Republican. A key difference aside from the Trump endorsement? West is a bombastic firebrand whos polarizing even within the party, while Hunt is the picture of respectability who will toe the party line and not draw attention to himself.

Such contrasts can be found across the country. John James in Michigan is another Trump-backed military veteran seeking a House seat while former football star Herschel Walker hopes to land in the Senate on the strength of nothing but a Trump endorsement and name recognition.

Bottom line: Given the number of black Republican candidates and the developing dynamics of this midterm, it seems likely that there will be more black Republicans in the next Congress. And should the three sitting black congressional RepublicansUtah Rep. Burgess Owens, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scottwin re-election in November, it will only take one other black Republican to make it the largest classfoursince 1875. And if two win? Itll be the largest in the nations history, tying the post-Fifteenth Amendment class of 1871 at five.

Whatever the outcome, we can be certain that the rise of Trumpism, like the Tea Party before it, paved the way for more black Republicans in Congress. Contemporary movement conservatism establishes a sort of subgroup identity that embraces minority exceptionalism. Importantly, this does not mean that the distinct conservatism found in black America will find expression in the Republican party, only that the toxic partisanship wreaking havoc on our democracy and society can sometimes work to conceal unresolved tensions along other fault lines.

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Will 2022 Be the Year of the Black Republican? - The Bulwark

Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas speaks on the floor of the House of Representatives on April 23, 2020.House Television via AP

Roy texted Mark Meadows concerns about Trump's rhetoric and the effort to overturn the 2020 election.

He said Trump was "whipping his base into a conspiracy frenzy" and should "tone down the rhetoric."

He added that "we're driving a stake in the heart of the federal republic" by trying to reject electors.

Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas privately warned Mark Meadows that President Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the election were inciting his base and undermining the country's electoral system in a series of texts in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election.

The texts between Roy and Meadows, Trump's final White House chief of staff and a former member of Congress, were reported by CNN on Friday along with a series of texts from Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah.

"We must urge the President to tone down the rhetoric, and approach the legal challenge firmly, intelligently and effectively without resorting to throwing wild desperate haymakers or whipping his base into a conspiracy frenzy," Roy texted Meadows on November 9, two days after major networks called the 2020 election for President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

Two days earlier, Roy texted Meadows that "we need ammo. We need fraud examples. We need it this weekend."

The texts show that the Texas Republican, a hardline conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus that Meadows helped found, was initially supportive of the former president's legal challenges to the election.

CNN reported that Roy was also supportive of John Eastman, a conservative legal scholar who later laid out a blueprint for Vice President Mike Pence to reject states' electors. On November 22, he texted Meadows to "get Eastman to file" in front of the state board of elections in Pennsylvania, one of the states where Trump hoped to reverse the election results.

But as early as December 10, prior to the meeting of the Electoral College , Roy publicly warned in a Twitter thread that the lawsuit filed by the Texas attorney general "represents a dangerous violation of federalism."

Story continues

"The president should call everyone off. It's the only path," Roy later texted Meadows on December 31. "If we substitute the will of states through electors with a vote by congress every 4 years... we have destroyed the electoral college... Respectfully."

"We're driving a stake in the heart of the federal republic," Roy texted Meadows the following day.

Roy later voted to certify the results of the 2020 election, breaking with 147 of his Republican colleagues. Following the riot on January 6, he said that "the President should never have spun up certain Americans to believe something that simply cannot be."

While Roy ultimately voted against impeaching the former president, he then declared on the House floor on Jan 13 that Trump "deserves universal condemnation for what was clearly, in my opinion, impeachable conduct."

Roy's communications director, Nate Madden, told CNN that the texts "speak for themselves," and Roy did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

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Republican Rep. Chip Roy privately warned that Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election results were 'driving a stake in the heart of the federal...

The new Franklin & Marshal College Poll, like some other recent soundings, shows state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin County, ahead by a nose in the nine-person Republican gubernatorial primary.

But Mastrianos lead is well within the polls margin of error, there are several candidates within striking distance as the race heads into its last month and 48 percent of those surveyed said they could not name a preferred candidate from those on the ballot.

The survey, conducted between March 30 and April 10, shows Mastriano registering support from 15 percent of the 317 registered Republicans surveyed, followed by former federal prosecutor Bill McSwain, 12 percent; and former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, 10 percent.

David White, former member of the Delaware County Council, leads the rest of the pack with 5 percent support.

Trailing are former U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, at 3 percent; state Sen. Jake Corman, R-Centre County, logged 2 percent; conservative thought leader Charlie Gerow pulled 1 percent and Northampton County physician Nche Zama had less than 1 percent.

The GOP winner is headed for a fall showdown with Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee.

Current Gov. Tom Wolf is wrapping up his second term in office, the maximum permitted by the state Constitution.

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Another poll shows Republican governors race still unsettled heading into last month of primary season - PennLive

In 2022, the Republican Party could really use a pep talk from the Gipper.

How the GOP of today cries out for the spirit of Ronald Reagan. He got right so many things that the Republicans of today are getting wrong.

For instance, I dont suppose Reagan, an ardent foe of the Soviet Union who demanded that Mikhail Gorbachev tear down this wall in Berlin, would look kindly on how former President Donald Trump fawns over Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the early days of the invasion of Ukraine, Trump dubbed Putin a genius.

Yes, because nothing moves your Mensa application to the top of the pile like overestimating the competence of your forces and underestimating the resistance of the opposition.

Nor would Reagan be proud of how some Republicans have of late done the bidding of organized labor by twisting an America First agenda into a familiar form of tariff-driven protectionism that says U.S. industries should be excused from having to compete with global competitors. For Republicans, the first hint that they made a colossal mistake by falling in line behind Trumps restrictive trade policies should have been when the Biden administration decided to keep those policies in place.

And, of course, Dutch who signed into law the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted legal status to nearly 2.7 million undocumented people would surely be disgusted by the way in which many Republicans now approach immigration. Whereas Reagan believed in welcoming the stranger and often spoke about how immigrants benefit America, the Republicans of today opportunistically grab hold of the issue with a toxic combination of dishonesty, cynicism, racism and fear.

Not that Democrats are much better. They lie to constituents and rail against the same restrictionist immigration policies that they later adopt as their own. They cater to organized labor, much of which wants to keep out foreign workers who could turn into competitors. They rack up record numbers of deportations, put refugee kids in cages and embrace light-skinned Ukraine refugees while rounding up dark-skinned Haitians using Border Patrol agents on horseback. Then, instead of just admitting their sins, anti-immigrant Democrats point fingers at Republicans for being the preferred party of nativists.

Im not sure. Has anyone polled nativists? I imagine they would be fine with the parts of President Joe Bidens immigration agenda that were borrowed from Trump.

However, one recent development that is causing angst among Republicans, and other Americans, is the Biden administrations decision to 86 Title 42. The controversial public health statute which has allowed Customs and Border Protection agents to turn away, since March 2020, as many as 1.7 million migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border without letting them apply for asylum is set to end on May 23.

All this turning away was done under the pretense of helping prevent the spread of COVID-19 into the United States, but where both the Trump and Biden administration really found Title 42 useful was as a convenient device to keep out immigrants and refugees.

In fact, the statute is so convenient that, in the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers recently introduced a bill that would keep Title 42 in place presumably forever or at least until senators no longer have to run for re-election, whichever comes first.

Meanwhile, in the four U.S. states that border Mexico, Republicans are panic-stricken. They warn that the nations southern border is about to be overrun by the underprivileged, the unwashed, the unwanted.

You know, the same kinds of folks who built this country in the first place.

Leave it to politicians in both parties to take something intended to be temporary, and try to make it permanent to serve their short-term political interests.

Title 42 was supposed to be a temporary behavior modification to protect public health. You know, like masking. But while many Republicans couldnt wait to rip off their masks and protest against efforts by bureaucrats and local governing bodies to make masking permanent, they are in no similar hurry to surrender Title 42.

But surrender, we must. With nary a peep from Congress, the Biden administration has already lifted the policy with regard to Ukrainians who wish to apply for refugee status. It cant justify not doing the same for desperate people from other dark corners of the world.

America is strong enough and good enough to handle whatever comes her way. Just like she always has.

At least, I bet thats how Reagan would see it.

Ruben Navarrettes email address is crimscribe@icloud.com. His podcast, Ruben in the Center, is available through every podcast app.

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RUBEN NAVARRETTE JR.: The legacy of Reagan still looms large. Its the Republican Party that got smaller - Las Vegas Review-Journal

ITHACA, N.Y.Two candidates have filed enough petition signatures to run for the Republican nomination for Ithaca mayor, but one has challenged the others number of signatures, which could threaten their place on the ballot.

The two candidates are Ithaca conservative activist Zachary Winn, known for his vocal opposition to police reform and frequent condemnations of COVID-19 safety measures at local public meetings, as well as William Metro, best known for the phrase Do you want to see some magic? preceding his Magic Man routine on the Commons (as well as his public access television show).

Both submitted petitions for Republican mayoral runs earlier this month; their campaigns have not been previously reported. Similarly, both are expected to strike fairly hardline conservative stances during the primary: Metro is an avowed fan of former President Donald Trump and conservative icon Sean Hannity, while Winn has been seen in several confrontations with racial justice protesters in the last 18 months or so, especially in the lead-up to the 2020 election. He also runs the blog Ithaca Crime, which is about crime in Ithaca.

However, Winn has filed a General Objection with the Tompkins County Board of Elections, ostensibly contesting the validity of petitions that Metro submitted. Metro submitted 37 signatures on his designating petitions document; Winn submitted 61 signatures of his own. Board of Elections officials confirmed they are the only Republican candidates to submit designating petitions for the primary election, which takes place on June 28.

The specific nature of Winns complaint is unclear, though if he continues through the process he will have to specify his objections by next week. Signatories on petitions must be residents of the City of Ithaca and be a registered member of the same party as the candidatea glance at Metros petition shows that each of his signatures do indeed list Ithaca addresses. Some of the entries are difficult to read, though that is fairly common for designating petition submissions.

Winn, who ran for mayor at least one other time, in 2007, has not yet responded to a request for comment via email.

Winn submitted a General Objection yesterday.He now has 6 days to submit his specifications. He will need to submit his Specific Objections to our office by Monday, April 18th, said Republican Commissioner of Elections Tamara Scott.

According to the county Board of Elections, 37 petition signatures is the minimum threshold required to get on the ballot for Republicans, representing a certain percentage of the total number of registered Republicans within the City of Ithaca (for contrast, in the heavily Democratic city, 410 signatures are required for Democratic candidates). That means, technically, that if any of Metros signatures are thrown out, he will not have enough to get on the ballot unless he is granted more time.

Metro, in brief comments to The Ithaca Voice, said he does not know why his petitions would have been challenged.

Theyre all legit, Metro said. What reason does Zach have to challenge them? We are running in the same party. [] If he really wants to challenge me, he can do it on primary day at the ballot box.

Both candidates are running for the Republican nomination for Ithaca mayor, looking for the opportunity to face incumbent Democrat Laura Lewis, who is now serving as the acting mayor and is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Winn and Metro are likely to strike a very different tone from Lewis

Whoever is victorious in the November general election will serve one year to finish out former Mayor Svante Myricks term, and there will be another election in November 2023 to determine who will be the mayor for a full four-year term after that.

The last time a petition objection had a tangible impact on local politics was 2017, when Tompkins County Legislature candidate Keith Hannon was prevented from running as a Democrat because of an objection to his submitted petitions.

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Two new Republican candidates for Ithaca mayor already sparring over petition signatures - The Ithaca Voice

LANSING, MI A legislative panel heard testimony Tuesday about a bill package that would change Michigan election law to, among other things, require the secretary of state to update and replace the photo of a person applying for a renewal drivers license and upload the updated photograph to the qualified voter file.

The House Election and Ethics Committee met Tuesday afternoon to hear testimony about several items including House Bills 5585, 5886 and 5887, which are sponsored by Rep. Ann Bollin, R-Brighton.

House Bills 5586 and 5587 also would shorten the period when a person may renew his or her license or ID card by mail, before an in-person renewal visit is required, from 12 years to eight years.

The passage of Proposal 3 in 2018 gave Michigan voters no-reason absentee voting and same-day voter registration.

While advocates of the 2018 ballot proposal view its passage and implementation as a success with residents getting a greater opportunity to register and vote absentee, Republican lawmakers opposed it, arguing the changes would weaken the security of elections.

Having a strong voter turnout should be a common goal. However, with the passage of this proposal, Michigan voters never have to appear before a local clerk to verify their identity, Bollin said. What is concerning is that a voters photo ID may not be updated.

Bollins bills would make it so Michigan law requires an updated photo to be taken every eight years.

Ive heard some concerns about putting it into the QVF (Qualified Voter File), Bollin said, adding that shes also considering submitting photos to the electronic poll book.

Then it would make much easier access, she said. Voters wouldnt necessarily have to pull their photo ID, or clerks would have the photo ID in the clerks office as we move to a lot more voters voting in-person.

The legislation would bring an additional one-time cost to the Department of State to implement changes to the current functionality between its automated Customer and Automotive Record System (CARS) and the Qualified Voter File. There would also be additional ongoing data storage costs to DOS for maintaining digital photo records.

CARS currently transmits text data to the QVF, including name, address, date of birth, gender, and for drivers license recipients, drivers license number and signature. The ability to transmit photographs to the QVF would require additional information technology programming costs.

It is not known at this time what those costs would be, or whether they could be supported with DOSs current ongoing appropriations. The average cost for a state IT project is approximately $300,000, according to a legislative analysis from the House Fiscal Agency.

The House Fiscal Agency analysis states the bills would not have a fiscal impact on city and township clerks offices, but would have indeterminate fiscal impacts on the offices if photograph identification were required for voting in the future. If photographs were required to vote, the bills would provide personnel cost savings to local clerks offices by reducing handling time and staff hourly costs of processing provisional envelope ballots at precinct voting locations and clerks offices.

The bill did not receive a vote Tuesday during the committee meeting.

READ MORE FROM MLIVE:

Whitmer vetoes Republican election bills aimed at voiding registration for certain voters

Whitmer vetoes election bills she says perpetuated Big Lie

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Republican voter ID bills would cut license renewal period from 12 to 8 years - MLive.com

Since Florida passed its controversial dont say gay bill, conservative states across America have been advancing similar bills as they attempt to ban the discussion of gender identity and sexual orientation in classrooms.

Last month, Floridas Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, signed into law the Parental Rights in Education bill. The law prohibits all discussion of sexuality and gender identity in schools, a move that advocates say will erase LGBTQ+ students and history.

Since the bills introduction and passage, various Republican-run states have filed similar legislation that mimics Floridas, reflecting a chilling wave of speech and identity restrictions across the country.

Over 156 gag-order bills targeting issues of identity have been introduced or refiled in 39 states since January 2021, according to a February report by PEN America, a non-profit that seeks to protect freedom of expression in the US. At least 105 of those target K-12 schools, 49 target higher education and 62 include mandatory punishments for those found in violation.

Floridas dont say gay bill is just the tip of the iceberg. While race, sex and American history remain the most common targets of censorship, bills silencing speech about LGBTQ+ identities have also surged to the fore, the organization said.

In March, Georgia legislators introduced the Common Humanity in Private Education Act. According to the act, No private or nonpublic school or program shall promote, compel, or encourage classroom discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity in primary grade levels or in a manner that is not appropriate for the age and developmental stage of the student.

The act, which is sponsored by 10 Republican state senators, says a focus on racial and gender identity and its resulting discrimination on the basis of color, race, ethnicity and national origin is destructive to the fabric of American society.

LGBTQ+ advocates in Georgia have pushed back heavily against the bill, arguing that it is not about parental rights but rather restricting the activities, participation and learning of children in schools.

In Louisiana, a Republican state representative introduced a bill last month that seeks to ban discussions of gender identity and sexual orientation in certain public school classrooms.

The bill, proposed by representative Dodie Horton, seeks to prohibit teachers and others from discussing their sexual orientation or gender identity with students from kindergarten through 12th grade. It also seeks to also ban teachers and other presenters from discussing topics of sexual orientation and gender identity with students in kindergarten through eighth grade.

In February, Republicans in Kansas introduced a state House bill that would make the depiction of homosexuality in classroom materials a class B misdemeanor.

In Indiana, state legislators proposed a bill that would require schools to obtain prior informed written consent from the parent of a student who is less than eighteen years of age before the student may participate in any instruction on human sexuality.

The listed topics in the bill that would require parental consent includes abortion, birth control or contraceptives, sexual activity, sexual orientation, transgenderism and gender identity. Before obtaining written consent from parents, the bill would require schools to provide parents with informed written notice which shall accurately describe in detail the contents and nature of the instruction on human sexuality, including the purpose of the instruction on human sexuality.

A bill introduced by Tennessee state Republicans in February seeks to prohibit any instructional materials that promote, normalize, support, or address lesbian, gay, bi-sexual, or transgender issues or lifestyles.

In Arizona, proposed bills by Republican state senators include those that would block gender-affirming healthcare for transgender youth, as well as force teachers, nurses and other school staff to disclose a minors gender identity to their parents.

Oklahoma state legislators recently passed a bill that prevents students enrolled in colleges from being required to engage in any form of mandatory gender or sexual diversity training or counseling; provided, voluntary counseling shall not be prohibited. The law also states, Any orientation or requirement that presents any form of race or sex stereotyping or a bias on the basis of race or sex shall be prohibited.

Earlier this week, Ohio Republican representatives Jean Schmidt and Mike Loychik introduced a bill that would ban kindergarten through third-grade classrooms from discussing sexual orientation and gender identity. Additionally, classrooms with older students would be disallowed from featuring those topics in ways that are not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate.

In response to the bills introduction, Democratic representative Brigid Kelly called it a huge problem} and said: Were not giving people access to the tools, the materials, the lessons they need to prepare children for the diverse world that exists.

Similarly, South Carolina state lawmakers introduced a bill that would ban state entities, including schools from subjecting students to instruction, presentations, discussions, counseling, or materials in any medium that involves topics including sexual lifestyles, acts, or practices, as well as gender identity or lifestyles.

Additionally, like the Oklahoma law, another South Carolina bill seeks to prevent teachers, staff members and district employees from engaging in gender and sexual diversity training.

In states such as Wisconsin and Rhode Island, personal pronouns have also become a contentious subject for conservative lawmakers. Both chambers of the Wisconsin legislature have approved a bill which has yet to be signed into law that includes a parents right to choose pronouns for their children.

In Rhode Island, a proposed bill would require children to be addressed by their common names and the pronouns associated with their biological gender unless their parents grant permission to change them.

Floridas cruel dont say gay bill is one of hundreds of anti-LGBTQ bills moving through state legislatures, most of which primarily attack trans youth, the American Civil Liberties Union tweeted in February.

Censoring classroom discussions wont keep kids from being LGBTQ. It just piles on to the national pattern of attacks, it added.

Read more:

Floridas dont say gay bill inspired a chilling wave of Republican legislation - The Guardian

As a former Hamilton County Republican Party Chairman, I have a unique understanding of the way our local party qualifies candidates. Mike Dumitru is one of those candidates and I wholeheartedly support his candidacy for Circuit Court Judge, Division II.

Earlier this week, I received a mailer from the other candidate suggesting that Mike is not a true conservative and implying he voted in the Democratic primary in 2020. This is a patently false mischaracterization and is contradicted by Mikes voting record, which reflects that he voted in both Republican primaries in 2020. This type of campaigning is certainly troubling to me, especially in a judicial race. I have nothing against the other candidate as I do not know him and Im not sure I ever met him at our Republican party events through the years.

Just as troubling is the implicit statement that Mike is not a true Republican. I understand fully the values that make someone a Republican and Mike holds those values! He is a Republican under both the Bylaws and Rules of the Tennessee Republican Party but just as importantly in his actions and values. He is engaged in the local Republican party, has supported other local Republican candidates, and was seated as a voting delegate for his precinct in the last Hamilton County Republican Delegate Convention. Mike is a strict jurist who will enforce the law as written and passed by our elected representatives, will not legislate from the bench, and will rule narrowly. He will never be an activist judge. And his personal storyof a family who fled a communist country where the concept of small government was a mere fairy talehas colored the lens through which he views our government, including the judiciary.

But even setting aside his values, let me say this. I have personally known Judge Jeff Hollingsworth inside and outside of the courtroom for nearly 20 years. If you are looking for someone who will follow in the same footsteps, Mike Dumitru is your candidate. I have no doubt that he will bring to the position the same moral character, legal ability, and judicial temperament of Judge Hollingsworth while honorably serving our community as the Division II Circuit Court Judge.

I encourage all Republicans to join me and my family and vote for Mike Dumitru in the Republican primary for Circuit Court Judge during early voting or on May 3.

Tony SandersHamilton County Republican Party Chairman2013-2017

* * *

I've always been involved in this community and I've met a lot of people during those years as a businessman and volunteer. Mike Dumitru cares about Hamilton County and he's committed to our citizens and the judicialprocess.

Mike has proven he has the knowledge and the temperament to be a great judge. His strong work ethic, understanding of the importance of responsive local government , and willingness to listen to community concerns makes him the best in this race.

If you don't know Mike, you need to meet him. You'll see what I mean; he's the real thing and Hamilton County needs him.

Manny Rico, Local Businessman and former City Councilman

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This Republican Is Supporting Mike Dumitru - And Response - The Chattanoogan