Category Archives: Republican

Democrats have settled on a national strategy for the midterm elections: portraying themselves as the party of reproductive rights, and Republicans as extremists who will take those rights away entirely. Its a clever inversion of the normal dynamic of voters punishing the party in power in midterms, with the Supreme Court standing in as the party in power. The Court was the most disruptive government force of the past two years, and Democrats want voters to focus on what its rulings have stripped away.

Polling has shown shifts among independent voters when abortion rights are given the primary focus. Ive seen in my own reporting that swing-district Democrats are turning to abortion as their main argument, and Lindsey Graham certainly helped them a great deal by filing a national abortion ban and vowing to pass it if Republicans gained power. Most of the advertisements from the Democratic side hit this issue, including one from former Rep. Max Rose of Staten Island intimating that Republican attacks on reproductive rights will cause women to die. Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker allegedly funding the abortion he wants to criminalize has only added fuel to the strategy.

There are some hiccups to this approachthe one pro-life Democrat in Congress (Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas) benefiting from millions of dollars in Democratic campaign cash, for examplebut its a powerful message that draws simple contrasts between the consequences of Democratic and Republican rule. You can absolutely see why Democrats are taking this path, especially after high-profile victories in special elections and votes in the previous few months.

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Perhaps the biggest of those votes was in blood-red Kansas, where voters rejected an effort by far-right groups to change the state constitution to allow for abortion bans. That makes it even more remarkable that the Democratic governor of that state, Laura Kelly, is not leaning into abortion rights in her tight re-election campaign against Republican attorney general Derek Schmidt.

Kelly has been focused instead on the economy. Shes run an ad about a Panasonic EV battery factory coming to De Soto, one about eliminating a tax on food that has brought down the cost of living marginally, and several about fully funding schools, defending them from the slash-and-burn project of Republicans like her predecessor Sam Brownback. Despite resounding support for abortion rights in Kansas, Republicans patently unpopular stance on the issue hasnt factored into Kellys messaging.

Its weird to hear analysts say that sidestepping abortion is the right strategy for Kelly after an election that showed a large bipartisan majority in favor of retaining abortion rights in the same state. But polling in the race shows that three times as many voters care about the economy relative to abortion access. A similar prioritization is seen in national polling, where economic issues take precedence over social policy, and Republicans tend to be seen as more trustworthy.

If there were no way to penetrate the Republican advantage on economic matters, maybe the focus on abortion would be seen as Democrats only recourse. But there is a story to tell here, based much like Grahams proposed bill on what Republicans have explicitly said they would do if they got back into power.

I havent really seen advertising that lays out this promise from Republicans to make prescription drug prices higher.

The Inflation Reduction Act has a silly name, but if there is anything in the bill that will actually reduce the cost of living, its the measure to negotiate prescription drug prices with Medicare. I speculated that Democrats would have a hard time making the sale on this measure because negotiations dont kick in until 2026, meaning Democrats would have to promote something that voters wont feel in their lives for four years.

But Republicans are helping out by vowing to repeal the law, on the record and in public. If the courts havent gotten to it beforehand, yeah weve got to do our job and try to defend the Constitution, said Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA) last month, intimating a constitutional right to protect a particular industry from bulk purchasing discounts. I havent really seen advertising that lays out this promise from Republicans to make prescription drug prices higher.

President Biden has mentioned that Republicans would damage Medicare and Social Security if elected, using the blueprint of Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (the Senate GOP campaign arm), as evidence. But its not just Scott. Don Bolduc, running for Senate in New Hampshire, advocated privatizing Medicare in August. Arizona Republican candidate Blake Masters has mused about privatizing Social Security, as has Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson. There have been scattered ads and mobilization about this, but nothing like the concerted effort around abortion.

Many candidates have explained to me and other Prospect reporters that they are highlighting a Republican vote against oil company price-gouging in their campaigns. One broader point, made by frontliner Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) in a Los Angeles Times piece and others, is that Republicans have articulated no solutions to higher prices other than incoherent bellowing, while Democrats have put forward short-term and long-term proposals. (Levin mentioned the price-gouging bill.)

Finally, theres the signature Republican vow to defund the tax police, by repealing the $80 billion for IRS efforts in the Inflation Reduction Act. Polls show that voters detest the two-tiered tax system, one for the wealthy and large corporations and one for everyone else. Republicans are publicly determined to keep that going, and to reverse Democratic efforts to end that dynamic.

Womens health is obviously critically important, and highlighting the Republican position of criminalizing reproductive rights creates a larger perception of GOP policy aims as extreme. But so does reminding voters that Republicans continue to worship at the feet of trickle-down economics, with tax cuts and business deregulation seen as the answer to any possible problem. They want to remake America in the image of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom, last seen furiously backpedaling from a tax-cut policy proposal that virtually collapsed its economic system. Its worth not letting that get lost in the midterm shuffle.

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Republican Ideas on Economics Are as Bad as Their Ideas on Abortion - The American Prospect

Another Republican who stood up to Donald Trump is on his way out of Congress, with the news that the Nebraska senator Ben Sasse is set to become president of the University of Florida.

Of the 10 House Republicans and seven senators who voted to convict Trump at his second impeachment trial, for inciting the January 6 Capitol attack, only two congressmen and four senators are on course to return after the midterm elections.

High-profile casualties include Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the House January 6 committee vice-chair who lost her primary to a Trump-backed challenger in August.

Like Cheney, Sasse, 50, has been thought a possible contender for the Republican presidential nomination, a notional 2024 contest still dominated by Trump.

The senator does not have to face voters again until 2026. But on Thursday Rahul Patel, a member of the University of Florida board of trustees, told the Tampa Bay Times the college needed a visionary, an innovator and big thinker who would differentiate us from others a leader who is transformational. The committee unanimously felt Ben Sasse is a transformational leader.

Sasse decried Washington partisanship and called Florida the most interesting university in America right now.

A university president before he entered politics, at Midland in Nebraska, Sasse will in November be the sole candidate interviewed for the Florida position.

If he resigns as a senator, the Nebraska governor the Republican Pete Ricketts, or a likely Republican successor if Sasse resigns in January will appoint a replacement.

NBC News reported that Sasses move was the result of Republican rivalries. Quoting a top Republican insider, the outlet said the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, was behind the move, which was meant as one in the eye for Trump.

Marc Caputo, a reporter, wrote: In May, Trump said he regretted supporting Ben Sasse. Now, DeSantiss man at UF has engineered Sasses hiring. Everyone knows what this is about: Ron and Don, a top Republican insider tells me, echoing others.

As the only Republican who polls even close to Trump, DeSantis is widely thought to be planning a presidential run of his own.

Ricketts, the Nebraska governor, is from the family behind the stockbroker TD Ameritrade and a former co-owner of the Chicago Cubs baseball team. He made headlines in June 2020, amid national protests for racial justice, when he apologised for calling Black leaders you people.

The Ricketts family has ties to DeSantis. On Friday, in messages viewed by the Guardian, a Trump insider said the Sasse move was about Ricketts money to DeSantis. This is what Pete wanted so he can appoint himself to the Senate.

In a statement, Ricketts said he learned about Sasses planned resignation on Thursday, when he called to notify me.

He added: If I choose to pursue the appointment, I will leave the appointment decision to the next governor and will follow the process established for all interested candidates. It is the honor of a lifetime to serve as the governor of Nebraska. It is the greatest job in the world, and it will remain my number one focus for the remainder of my term.

Sasse was elected to the Senate in 2014 and emerged as a critic of Trump and his effect on US politics when the billionaire ran for the White House two years later. Sasse called Trump a megalomaniac strongman and said he would not vote for him or his opponent, Hillary Clinton.

Sasses wife, Melissa, said her husband had a need for competition. Also hes an idiot.

From 2017 to 2021, Sasse voted with Trump more than 85% of the time. He voted to acquit in Trumps first impeachment trial, for blackmailing Ukraine for political dirt.

Nevertheless, in November 2020 Sasse claimed: Ive never been on the Trump train.

In February 2021, Sasse said he voted to convict Trump over the Capitol attack because he had promised to speak out when a president even of my own party exceeds his or her powers. Such words earned him his share of Trumpian abuse, including a nickname, Liddle Ben Sasse.

In 2018, Sasse wrote a book, Them, in which he lamented political polarisation. He wrote: We are in a period of unprecedented upheaval. Community is collapsing, anxiety is building, and were distracting ourselves with artificial political hatreds. That cant endure. And if it does, America wont.

On Thursday, the Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin had a suggestion for what Sasse might do next.

Why not join Liz Cheney to campaign against GOP election liars/deniers. It might even impress his new employers. Otherwise his Senate career has been a total nothing burger.

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Ben Sasse, Republican who voted to convict Trump, to depart Congress - The Guardian US

Donald Trump is expected to launch dozens of television ads to boost Republicans in key races across the country, with the former US president asserting his political influence as the campaigns head into the final stretch of the midterm elections, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The spots funded through a newly and specially created political action committee christened Maga Inc, an abbreviation for the Make America Great Again slogan are anticipated to come in several waves of messaging over the coming weeks, the sources said.

Trump is expected to provide the majority of the assistance to Republican Senate candidates that he endorsed, including Mehmet Oz running in Pennsylvania against John Fetterman, JD Vance running against Tim Ryan in Ohio, and Herschel Walker running against Raphael Warnock in Georgia.

All three rightwing Senate candidates have experienced rocky campaigns, not least as all three come from non-political backgrounds with extreme views on various subjects. Their travails have been widely seen as boosting Democratic chances of keeping hold of the Senate to the ire of Republican leaders.

The anticipated moves by Trump would mark the first time that the former president has become actively involved in this years midterm campaigns, and also the first time that he has opened his war chest to finance ad buys that are being considered by political operatives as significant.

While Trump has spent much of the past year reveling in playing kingmaker as he ceremonially considered endorsements and held rallies with high-profile candidates, he has been reserved when it comes to spending the millions of dollars he has raised in round-the-clock fundraising.

Trumps principal political action committee, Save America, has raised about $124m in the past year and used only about 20% of that number to pay for rallies, travel, consultants and lawyers, according to the entitys filings.

That all changed on Thursday night, as Trump unveiled a pair of television spots aimed to boost Oz and Vance, who have both lagged millions of dollars behind their Democratic opponents.

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Democratic candidate Fetterman is running a campaign that leans hard into preserving abortion rights which has broad support across the state while the Republican candidate Oz is running a negative campaign trying to characterize his opponent as being soft on crime.

Trumps new television spot doubles down on Ozs harsh messaging, attacking Fetterman in ominous terms for his efforts to grant clemency to certain convicts and specifically his vote to commute the life sentence for a man convicted of murdering a woman with scissors more than 30 years ago.

In the Ohio Senate race, Democratic congressman Tim Ryan is running a campaign about bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the state, as Vance, the author of the bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, has attempted to burnish an image as a Trump-aligned conservative.

The line of attack from Trumps new television ad against Ryan centers on his Democratic voting record while in Congress, characterizing him in conspiratorial terms as an agent of the supposed deep state a familiar Trump trope that has no evidence to back it up.

The assistance from Maga Inc funneling money from Save America, which, as a leadership political action committee cannot itself help campaigns marks an effort by Trump late in the midterm campaign season to prop up his endorsed candidates in unexpectedly narrow contests.

For instance, although Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2020, polls in recent weeks show Vance and Ryan as essentially tied. The close nature of the race alarmed national Republicans enough to start devoting more resources to the race, the Guardian has previously reported.

But with the campaigns and outside groups facing cash concerns, aides to Trump-endorsed candidates privately urged Trumps political team to provide assistance beyond staging rallies, the sources said, both through financing television spots and digital media ads.

Top operatives at Maga Inc are expected to allocate some resources towards campaigns social media ads, digital operations and in get-out-the-vote initiatives, one of the sources said. Overall spending by Maga Inc for the midterms could run into tens of millions, a second source said.

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Trump expected to launch dozens of TV ads boosting Republicans in key races - The Guardian US

I think that silent group of people is going to have an effect on this election, said Klinefelt, who is running in one of Michigans most hotly contested state legislative races.

Democrats are counting on those silent women voters to join them in Michigan and other battleground states across the country, where abortion has scrambled the calculus on how they may vote this fall. The campaigns in Michigan show Democrats are not just leaning on abortion policy to juice turnout amongst the partys base, especially the large portion of it composed of college-educated women. Abortion is also a key part of the effort to persuade blue-collar women to switch sides, particularly in states where their Republican counterparts advocate a no exceptions approach to abortion access.

What were seeing is that women are outraged that rights that we thought were locked in are now very much at risk of being gone, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in an interview with POLITICO after rallying voters in Trenton, Mich. The fact that so many people appear to be getting engaged on this issue, I think, is a good sign.

Back at the doors, Klinefelt met a 44-year-old Eastpointe woman who declined to share her name but exemplified Klinefelts search for swing voters motivated by abortion. Ive always been pro-life, the woman said. But in realizing how many [abortions] are medically necessary, but then theres no exceptions? Thats big for me.

The woman said she plans to vote for Whitmer this fall because shes much better than the alternative, and abortion, truthfully, weighed heavily on that decision.

Even some Republicans in the state privately acknowledge that they need to do some soul-searching to get in line with the people on abortion policy, said one Michigan Republican consultant, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.

People are not on the side of late-term or abortions without parental consent, and theyre [also] not on the side of no exceptions, the person continued. Dobbs has thrown a monkey wrench into what should be a great year for us here and the no exceptions thing is the killer.

Abortion-rights protesters cheer at a rally in Lansing, Mich. on June 24, 2022, following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.|Paul Sancya/AP Photo

Nationally, the picture is more complicated for Democrats looking to draw in white, non-college-educated women, especially in places where the debate around abortion is more nuanced, several GOP pollsters said. They also point to public and private polling that consistently finds economic concerns outweighing abortion for these voters.

Even so, [Dobbs] has given Democrats a second look with them, said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who works on elections across the country.

Its given them another shot, a foothold, which they wouldnt have otherwise, Newhouse continued. Is it enough? No. Are [Democrats] still going to lose the House? Yes. But is it enough to make it closer than it wouldve been? No question about it.

Both national and in-state Republicans argue a big part of the problem in Michigan is that Democrats barrage of attacks on abortion has gone unanswered. Dixons campaign has failed to air a single TV ad since she won the August primary, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking media firm. In contrast, Whitmers campaign and Democratic allies have dumped millions into TV ads, primarily hammering Dixon on her comments about abortion and the states 1931 law that would criminalize abortion and put nurses in jail just for doing their job, one TV ads narrator says.

Some help is on the way for Dixon. The Republican Governors Association has reserved $4 million of TV ads over the final four weeks of the campaign, while a pro-Dixon group, Michigan Families United, has spent about $1.3 million on attacking Whitmer for pushing sex and gender theory in schools, the ads narrator says.

As ads take hold, things are going to change tremendously, said James Blair, Dixons chief strategist. Democrats went too hard, too heavy, too early. The election will still be a referendum on Whitmers failures and the state of the economy whether she likes it or not.

Republicans insist that blue-collar women will still vote primarily on pocketbook problems. Gas prices ticked up again this week, and cost of living continues to rank as the top one or two issues for women voters, according to public and private polling.

But there is evidence that a post-Dobbs bump is manifesting for Democrats, as Whitmer maintains a hefty public polling lead and voter registration swung towards women and younger voters, according to an analysis by Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm.

Richard Czuba, an independent pollster in the state who regularly conducts statewide polls for local news outlets, said that based on his data, once abortion is the focus in a race, statewide or in the legislature, those non-college women move away from the Republican coalition, which is a huge loss to them.

Every time Tudor is frustrated that all Whitmer talks about is abortion well, yeah, youre getting your head handed to you on this issue and they have no response, Czuba continued. This decision came out in June, but they still have no coherent response or strategy to deal with it.

Dixon vented that frustration at a recent rally with former President Donald Trump in Warren, Mich., another town in Macomb County. The candidate told rally-goers that Whitmer is out there saying that Im going to be able to do something about that issue in this state, but as you all know, its on the ballot, its been decided by a judge, dont let her shiny thing distract from the fact that she has done nothing but hurt this state.

Tudor Dixon addresses the crowd during a Save America rally on Oct. 1, 2022 in Warren, Mich.|Emily Elconin/Getty Images

Dixon is citing a statewide ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in the Michigan state constitution one of a few measures that will appear on November ballots this fall following success for abortion-rights supporters in a Kansas ballot measure in August.

To reporters, Dixon reiterated that abortion shouldnt be an issue for the gubernatorial race, but [Whitmer] hasnt come out with a plan, so shes trying to run against me on that, she said.

She also argued that the ballot initiative was the most radical abortion law in the entire country, so I expect to have quite a few people coming out that maybe, historically, would not have come out.

Whitmer, for her part, called Dixons argument ridiculous.

Even if the ballot initiative passes, the next governor and legislature can start enacting all sorts of laws that make it more difficult, more confusing and are going to stand in the way of women being able to exercise this fundamental right, Whitmer said. Voters are smart. They know when someone tells you who they are, you better believe them, or you might all of a sudden be losing your rights.

Democrats acknowledged the framing matters as they run on abortion, including trying to put the issue in economic terms.

Its the most important economic decision a woman makes in her lifetime, Whitmer said, noting that sometimes Democrats dont engage in [that messaging frame] as much as we probably should.

State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a Democrat who represents a slice of neighboring Oakland County, reinforced Whitmers point.

Heres what pollsters are missing and its not a surprise that a lot of them are men: For women, this is the most expensive decision theyll make in their lifetime. If youre a woman, youre buying groceries, thats another mouth to feed, its more gas to pay for another trip to a school, McMorrow said. If youre talking to women, yes, inflation is the top concern, but theyre also thinking about that in the context of access to an abortion.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this report incorrectly described the Kansas ballot measure vote on abortion rights earlier this year.

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Republican support from this key voting group is in jeopardy. Abortion is to blame. - POLITICO

After his high-profile refusal to overturn the 2020 election, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger could be the top Republican on Georgia's November ballot.

Catch up quick: Most Georgia Republicans wrote off Raffensperger's political future after he attracted some of the worst attacks from former president Donald Trump.

Threat level: Raffensperger's Democratic opponent, state Rep. Bee Nguyen, isn't deterred. She's aggressively raising money and leveraging outside support including from the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State to hammer Raffensperger as an anti-abortion rights candidate.

Context: Nguyen argues that because the secretary of state oversees more than 40 professional licensing boards, including for nurses, Raffensperger's abortion stance might into play should nurses face any prosecution or jeopardy to their licenses following the state's 6-week abortion ban.

The other side: Raffensperger told Axios Nguyen is "just grasping at straws." He points out that the governor appoints the members of the board, which makes the actual licensing decisions.

Yes, and: Raffensperger has launched his own attack ad against Nguyen, accusing her of "pushing stolen election claims" in the wake of Stacey Abrams' 2018 loss.

What they're saying: "As I've been along the campaign trail, I've actually had Democrats pull me aside and said, 'Oh, my gosh, I thought I was voting for this guy until I met you and I heard from you or until I heard about his record,'" Nguyen told Axios.

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Brad Raffensperger could be the top Georgia Republican in November - Axios

Denver Riggleman is a US air force veteran who became a one-term Republican congressman from Virginia. In the House from 2019, he was a member of the hardline Freedom Caucus and voted with Donald Trump more than 90% of the time. Yet according to his new book, Riggleman began to understand that some of my colleagues had fully bought into even the more unhinged conspiracy theories he had witnessed while campaigning.

In 2020, Riggleman lost his Republican nomination after he officiated a same-sex wedding. In retaliation, someone tampered with the wheels of his truck, endangering the life of his daughter. If I ever find the individual responsible, God help that person, the former congressman writes now.

Out of office, Riggleman became a senior staffer to the House January 6 committee. Last spring, he resigned. The Breach is an account of what he learned, his decision to publish reportedly angering some on the panel.

The book is also a memoir, in which Riggleman describes growing up in a tumultuous home and his bouts with religion and his parents as well as the metamorphosis of the GOP into the party of Trump, and the events and people of January 6.

The rift between Trumps wing of the Republican party and objective reality didnt begin with the election, Riggleman writes.

He omits specific mention of birtherism, the Trump-fueled false contention that Barack Obama was not born a US citizen. He does acknowledge the explosion of conspiracy theories during the Trump years.

As a former intelligence officer and contractor, Riggleman places the blame on social media, algorithms and the religious divide. Together, such factors took a toll on the nation, democracy and the lives of the Republican base.

Hostility to Covid vaccines exacted an explosion in excess deaths among Republicans, 76% higher than for Democrats. In Florida, the Covid death rate eventually surpassed that of New York, to rank among the highest in the US. Owning the libs can kill you literally. Tens of thousands died on Trumps altar of Maga. For what?

Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, actively encouraged vaccine skepticism. He refused to say whether he received the vaccine, and attempted to stop young children getting the shots. He is in the hunt for the Republican presidential nomination in two years time, second only to Trump.

The divine injunction against bearing false witness? It has elasticity.

Bob Good, a self-described biblical conservative who successfully challenged Riggleman for his Virginia seat, said Covid was a hoax. Jerry Falwell Jr, Goods boss at Liberty University, left that fundamentalist powerhouse in August 2020, amid a scandal ensnaring him, his wife and a pool boy.

Falwell was also one of Trumps most prominent supporters. Riggleman laments: It was stunning to see true born-again holy rollers lining up behind Trump, a man who shunned church and had already been caught on camera bragging about grabbing women by the crotch.

Likewise, he voices disgust for what has become of the party of Lincoln: As a kid the people I knew respected a line between church and state. Trumps party was veering more and more into Christian nationalism, where they demonized Democrats for having an unholy agenda.

Riggleman is also horrified by the involvement of ex-servicemen in the Capitol attack. Theres no denying it, he writes. The political challenge to the election was, at least on some level, linked to a military operation.

He reserves some of his harshest criticism for those closest to Trump. Mark Meadows, his last chief of staff; Mike Flynn, his first national security adviser; Roger Stone, his longtime political aide. Each played a major role in the insurrection.

As Riggleman recounts, Meadows defied the committee and refused to appear for deposition. But he did turn over 2,319 texts and messages, avoiding prosecution for contempt of Congress. Some of those texts came from 39 House Republicans and five senators.

Meadows gave us the keys to the kingdom, Riggleman writes, also describing the Meadows texts as the committees crown jewels.

As for Stone, the Republican dirty trickster was an apparent link between the brains and brawn of the Capitol attack.

On 7 November 2020, hours after the networks called the election for Joe Biden, Stuart Rhodes, the founder of Oath Keepers militia, messaged: Whats the plan We need to roll. Stone was part of the chat group. Rhodes now sits before a federal jury, charged with seditious conspiracy.

The final chapter of The Breach is devoted to Ginni Thomas, the wife of the supreme court justice Clarence Thomas. Its title: The Better Half. Riggleman raises Thomass past membership in Lifespring, a personal development program and purported cult. He says he found Thomas in Mark Meadows text messages after a hot tip and a case of mistaken identity. She wrote of watermarked ballots and a military whitehat sting operation. She mentioned TRUMP STING w CIA director Steve Pieczenik [actually a former state department official and conspiracy theorist]. She condemned the Biden crime family and ballot fraud conspirators.

Liz Cheney, the House committee vice-chair, asked Riggleman to pull back. The Wyoming Republican worried about exposing the Thomases as election deniers, QAnon followers, or both.

I think we need to remove that briefing, Cheney said, according to Rigglemans telling. Its going to be a political sideshow.

Months later, Cheney and the committee reversed course. On 29 September 2022, Thomas testified for more than four hours behind closed doors. She continued to claim the election was stolen.

In The Breach, Riggleman looks to the future.

We have a new enemy in this country, he writes, a domestic extremist movement that is growing online at fiber-optic speed. Is there a road back? To be honest, Im not quite sure.

Originally posted here:

The Breach review: ex-January 6 staffer on how Republicans lurched into madness - The Guardian

Deep-blue Oregon could elect a Republican as its next governor in November thanks to a particular set of circumstances that have lined up in the GOPs favor.

Republican candidate Christine Drazan led her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, by 2 points in an Emerson College poll this week. It was the latest sign that the party in control of Oregon for decades is struggling to convince voters to give Democrats more time at the helm.

I think this is maybe the most fascinating and surprising governors race in the country, Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner. You have kind of a confluence of different things that are giving Republicans a unique opportunity.

NEVADA REPUBLICANS LEADING IN STATEWIDE RACES: POLL

No Republican has won an Oregon gubernatorial race in 40 years, giving Oregon one of the longest unbroken streaks of Democratic control in the country.

Despite the decidedly liberal bent of the state, however, Drazan has a few advantages this cycle.

Oregons current leader is the least popular governor in the country, complicating Koteks job of selling a similar platform to voters. Democratic Gov. Kate Browns approval ratings have plummeted due to her perceived leniency on crime and the aggression of her pandemic-era mandates.

An independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, has also chipped away at some of Koteks support among Democrats.

While Johnson has pulled voters from both parties, shes taken more Democrats than Republicans, according to the Emerson poll.

Nine percent of Oregon Republicans said they planned to vote for Johnson, but 17% of Oregon Democrats said they would back the independent.

Johnsons straight-talking style and deep-pocketed campaign donors have given her a significant share of support in recent polls.

Phil Knight, co-founder of Nike, has poured millions of dollars into Johnsons campaign, helping her to outraise both Drazan and Kotek in a rare feat of fundraising prowess for a third-party candidate.

Crime has put Kotek on defense from both of her opponents.

Johnson has mocked Kotek as tent city Tina and complained the streets of Oregon are a mess.

A Democrat during her years in the state legislature, Johnson has adopted more centrist positions as an independent candidate this year that have popularized her with Democrats.

When you have voters that are looking at sort of the status quo and not liking where things are, theyre more likely to blame Democrats or seek a third option, which would be Johnson, Taylor said.

Drazan has struck a strident tone on crime throughout the race. Shes focused intensely on the violence that Portland city leaders have failed to contain over the past two years, which likely strikes a chord with the 72% of Oregonians who say they have a negative view of Portland.

Business owners have closed up shops and residents have fled since crime and homelessness have mushroomed through the streets. The vacancy rate of office space in downtown Portland has roughly doubled since 2019.

Drazan has suggested she would send state troopers to the city to crack down on crime in the absence of action from Portland Democrats.

If Portland leaders do not step in, specifically around riots, specifically around unrest that engages in property damage and criminal activity, if Portland leaders dont step in and resolve that, as governor, I will, she said in March.

Taylor noted that Republicans are only able to benefit from the combination of dissatisfaction with Oregon Democrats handling of crime and the spoiler role of Johnsons campaign because Drazan is such a strong candidate herself.

Formerly the state legislatures Republican leader, Drazan made a name for herself in part by orchestrating a walkout of GOP caucus members in 2020 that denied state Democrats the ability to vote on climate change legislation.

Republican state Rep. Daniel Bonham, a former colleague of Drazans in the legislature, said Drazan was like a Michael Jordan in the caucus.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Thats the person who needs the ball at the end of the game, Bonham told the Willamette Weekly. Shes just that exceptional.

Kotek has run on a fairly standard progressive platform that avoids calling for tougher policing or harsher punishments for lawbreakers.

She has continued to advocate community violence prevention programs and racial justice training for police officers rather than an increase in police budgets or the empowerment of prosecutors.

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Perfect storm in Oregon could pave way for Republican governor - Washington Examiner

Brace yourself: Voting is underway and were just one month away from what will likely be the most consequential midterm elections in years. Certainly the most consequential of the 10 cycles Ive covered over four decades, perhaps second only to the 1994 elections that gave Republicans control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

Whatever the outcome whether Republicans win majorities in the House and Senate, one chamber or neither one thing is all but certain: Win or lose, the result wont be good for the partys long-term health or for the countrys.

Thats because a loss wont be the shellacking the Republicans need to reform and turn from their antidemocratic path. And if they win, well, theyll just triple down.

Opinion Columnist

Jackie Calmes

Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

Only voters total repudiation might force Republicans to reckon with Trumpism. When a party is humiliated, its partisans look inward and correct course, as Democrats did after the Reagan era. A comeuppance didnt work to change Republicans after 2020, when President Trump lost, because the party made gains in other contests. (So much for Democrats supposed rigging of the election.)

By most accounts, Republicans wont be repudiated this year either. They only need net gains of five seats in House races and one in Senate contests to take over Congress. Theyve been favored from the start to capture the House, though its no longer a sure thing. This despite their sorry record during this two-year Congress, which began with nearly two-thirds of Republicans voting against certifying President Bidens election, even amid the blood and breakage left by Trumps insurrectionists that day.

The Senate is up for grabs. Polls suggest Republicans in swing states have either closed their summer gap against their Democratic rivals (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado) or pulled slightly ahead (Wisconsin, Nevada). The tightening was expected in marquee races with Democratic front-runners notably John Fettermans run in Pennsylvania against Mehmet Oz and Sen. Raphael Warnocks bid for reelection in Georgia against Herschel Walker. (That was before this weeks reports alleging that the purportedly antiabortion Walker paid a longtime girlfriend, one of four women to have a child with him, to abort a pregnancy.)

Overall, Republican voters are falling in line as Nov. 8 approaches. Money is flowing to candidates in tight races, notably from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnells fundraising committee. And nasty ads are airing on Republicans behalf, many blaming Democrats for crime. A new one in North Carolina unabashedly throws down the race card against Democrat Cheri Beasley, an African American former chief justice of the state Supreme Court who is running against Trumpist Rep. Ted Budd to take a Republican-held seat.

Historical trends are at play against Democrats, too, of course. Midterm elections have favored the party out of power for over a century. Several factors potentially make this cycle unique, however, and give Democrats hope: Theres the backlash against the Supreme Courts Dobbs ruling overturning Roe vs. Wade and red states rush to ban most or all abortions, and then theres the looming presence of Trump.

Republicans are saddled with a defeated president so narcissistic that he cant stand to have an election thats not about him. His sore-loser prominence on rally platforms and in the media, together with the record unpopularity of a right-wing Supreme Court he shaped, has Republicans in swing states on the defensive in a way thats unusual for the party out of power.

This week the New York Times election data-cruncher, Nate Cohn, wrote that while the likeliest outcome remains a Republican House majority, the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling. The Cook Political Reports update on Wednesday agreed a Republican House majority was the likeliest outcome, yet its more restrained forecast had Republicans picking up barely what they need.

As for the Senate, the analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com posted a piece Thursday with the headline Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.

Even the worst-case scenarios for Republicans, however, dont suggest an outcome that would spur them to break from far-right extremism. Their intransigence reflects more than just polarization. Whats at work is a calcification of politics rooted in voters racial, national, ethnic and religious outlooks, three political scientists wrote last month in the Washington Post about tribalism in both

parties.

Voters are increasingly tied to their political loyalties and values. They have become less likely to change their basic political evaluations or vote for the other partys candidate, according to John Sides of Vanderbilt and Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck of UCLA.

Take Walker he should be a dead man walking, what with the abortion allegation piled on all the other evidence hes unfit for the Senate. Yet his party support hasnt eroded, perhaps because Trump has so discredited accurate media reporting among Republicans that Georgias conservative voters simply cannot accept the allegation as anything but fake news.

Heres another belief that has calcified among Republicans: the Big Lie. On Thursday the Washington Post reported that a majority of Republican nominees for the House, Senate and key statewide offices 299 in all, in every region and nearly every state deny or question Bidens election. Most are likely to win they are running for safe Republican seats giving them some role in certifying future elections, whether as governors, election administrators or members of Congress.

That doesnt bode well for our democracy. Americans have seen this movie. We may see it again.

@jackiekcalmes

More here:

Jackie Calmes: No matter what happens in the midterms, Republicans won't correct their troubling trajectory - Los Angeles Times

Rep. LizCheney(R-Wyo.) on Wednesday criticized her party for what she sees as a growing sector of the GOP that supports Russian President Vladimir Putin as he wages his attacks on Ukraine.

You know, the Republican Party is the party of Reagan, the party that essentially won the Cold War. And you look now at what I think is really a growing Putin wing of the Republican Party, Cheney said at a McCain Institute event at Arizona State University.

The outgoing congresswoman, who lost her reelection bid in Wyoming to her Trump-backed Republican challenger, knocked Fox News for running propaganda and called out Fox host Tucker Carlson as the biggest propagandist for Putin on that network.

You really have to ask yourself, whose side is Fox on in this battle? And how could it be that you have a wing of the Republican Party that thinks that America would be standing with Putin as he conducts that brutal invasion of Ukraine? Cheney asked.

In a sweeping conversation with John S. McCain Democracy Fellow Sofia Gross, Cheney talked about the stunning developments she sees in the Republican Party that have stoked her concerns about the American republic and the democratic process.

The congresswoman quipped that she never imaged she would find herself spending so much time with Democrats.

Homing in her analysis on Arizona, where the McCain Institute event took place, she criticized Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for supporting Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who touts former President Trumps false claims of fraud during the 2020 presidential election.

Its important for us as Republicans to demand from our Republican leaders that they not accept this unraveling of the democracy. Glenn Youngkin should not come here and campaign for Kari Lake. Ted Cruz, who absolutely knows better, absolutely knows that what hes advocating is unconstitutional, that what shes saying is unconstitutional. They know it, Cheney said.

She cautioned voters against voting for Lake and state Rep. MarkFinchem(R), who is running for Arizona secretary of state, underscoring that both Trump-endorsed candidates have backed the former presidents election fraud claims in the face of evidence that his allegations were unfounded.

For almost 40 years now, Ive been a voting Republican. I dont know that I have ever voted for a Democrat. But if I lived in Arizona now, I would, Cheney said.

We cannot give people power who have told us that they will not honor elections, the congresswoman said.

Visit link:

Cheney knocks growing Putin wing of the Republican Party - The Hill

Symbols for red states (left) and blue states (right).

When a state is called a "red state", it means that it has traditionally voted in favor of Republican candidates. The terms "red state" and "blue state" have been in familiar lexicon since the 2000 US presidential election. If a state is not a red state or a blue state, it might be a swing state.

A map showing red states, blue states, and swing states as of the 2016 Election.

Here is a list of the strongest red states in the country:

Alaskan voters traditionally veer Republican and have voted that way in all but one election since they first began participating in presidential elections in 1960. Republican presidential candidates typically win with well over 50% of the vote. The 2016 was no exception, with the Republican candidate receiving 51.3% of the vote.

Idaho is another state known for having a Republican winning streak. The last 4 presidential elections here ended with a strong 60% or higher Republican vote. In 2016, Republican support was just under 60%, at 59.3%.

Kansas currently holds 6 electoral votes though once had 10, at the beginning of the 20th century. This drop is due to a decrease in population (on which electoral votes are based). In the last 5 elections, the Republican candidate for president has won with no less than 54.3% of the vote and as high as 62% in 2004.

Nebraska is worth 5 electoral votes that historically leans strongly Republican. As seen in the previous states, this support has dropped from previous levels of between 56% and 66%. The 2016 election saw 58.8% Republican support in Nebraska.

North Dakota is considered a safe state for Republicans meaning that the party garners strong majority support during elections. In 2012, the Republican nominee won by 20% of the vote, 9% in 2008 and over 20% in 2004 and 2000. All of these elections were won with between 53% and 62.9% popularity.

Oklahoma has exhibited some of the strongest Republican support of any of the previously mentioned. Currently in its 12th consecutive Republican streak, the last 5 elections have been won with over 60% popularity. In the 2016 election, the Republican presidential candidate won with 65.3% of the vote.

South Dakota has historically voted Republican. Throughout the past five election cycles, Republican support in South Dakota sat at at least 50% support. In 2016, 61.5% of the population of South Dakota voted Republican.

Utah has voted Republican in the last 12 election cycles and in the last 4, this has been with over 60% of the vote. 2016 saw a slight wavering in Republican support in Utah, at 45.5% of the vote. 27.5% of the state voted Democrat.

Wyoming is the last state on the list of longest running Republic streaks. In 2016, Wyoming voted 67.4% Republican. This is actually a decrease from both the 2012 and the 2008 elections, when Wyoming voted 68.6% Republican and 69% Republican, respectively.

See the rest here:

List of Red States (Republican States) - WorldAtlas