Category Archives: Jacinda Ardern

Ukrainian foreign minister makes a plea for support before attacks, retailers hike prices after most fail to meet targets and the number of vehicles towed from Parliament protest revealed in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

Nearly four years ago, a successful chief executive partnered with the Prime Minister to help solve some of New Zealand's economic problems like infrastructure, training and excessive regulation.

The Prime Minister was "delighted" with the executive's appointment, and the pair appeared to get on well. Four years later, that chief executive, Air New Zealand's Christopher Luxon, is vying for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's job, while she tries to argue the advice she once welcomed would, in fact, be bad for the country.

Luxon and Ardern corresponded regularly before he became a politician. In 2018, he was appointed to lead the Prime Minister's Business Advisory Council, a post he resigned when he left Air New Zealand a year later, expressing an interest to enter politics.

Two years of that correspondence has been released to the Herald under the Official Information Act.

The result is mostly what you'd expect. Ardern's correspondence is warm and occasionally effusive in its praise. Luxon's is dry and to the point - at one point he attaches a 68-page report from management consultancy McKinsey on "harnessing automation for a more productive and skilled New Zealand".

Writing to Luxon in October 2018, appointing him to the council, Ardern praised him for offering his "time and energy", writing "I look forward to exchanging ideas and working together on policies that will help us transform the New Zealand economy."

Less than a year later, after Luxon left the council, Ardern wrote again, addressing Luxon with a more familiar "Dear Chris", having previously written to him as "Christopher" (a small mistake on her part, Luxon expresses no public preference against "Chris" but he's "Christopher" to his family and those close to him).

"I would like to thank you and your colleagues from Air New Zealand for the enormous effort you have put into establishing and chairing the Prime Minister's Business Advisory Council in its first year of operation.

"I have very much appreciated the enthusiasm and engagement of Council members on policy issues affecting businesses both small and large in New Zealand," Ardern wrote.

She added a handwritten "Thanks again, Chris!" to her letter.

The council's concerns ran the gamut of business concerns with government, from excessive regulation to New Zealand's infrastructure deficit.

As chairman, Luxon was responsible for feeding these concerns back to the Government (writing to Ardern, he adopted the more formal "Dear Prime Minister").

On infrastructure, Luxon said the system that "sits beneath effective and sustainable infrastructure development in our country is fundamentally broken".

"We also have a proclivity as a nation to focus on the short term and on individual projects as a means of addressing our challenges rather than addressing the system itself".

Luxon told Ardern the country was at an "infrastructure crisis point", but said it "is not ... the fault of the current Government".

"These issues are multi-generational and systemic. However, we believe your Government has the opportunity to begin resetting our systems and to address this crisis."

As for fixes, Luxon said he wanted to encourage the Government to "be bolder and think bigger".

Luxon, who has been critical of growing the size of the public service since becoming leader (he told the Herald he has a "major issue with the cost that's going into our civil service at the moment. I think we're adding a huge amount of centralisation, a massive amount of bureaucracy and we're not getting better outcomes"), proposed to create a whole new ministry for planning and cities.

"New Zealand should establish a Ministry of Cities, Urban Development and Population," Luxon wrote.

"This new portfolio could incentivise locally developed, long-term and tangible strategies and execution through to the administration of City Deals. This would include allowing local authorities to capture part of the value created through their own successful strategies and initiatives," Luxon told Ardern.

He also suggested the establishment of "a civil service academy for local and central government" to build "needed capacity in commissioning and managing projects of national significance".

Luxon said the Government should review the Resource Management Act (RMA), the Local Government Act (LGA) and the Land Transport Act (LTA), perhaps through a commission of inquiry. The Government did review the RMA, and has proposed rolling functions of the LGA and LTA into legislation that will replace the RMA.

When it came to just how these infrastructure projects should be paid for, Luxon hewed to the centre. His advice noted there would be a need for "debt-funded" infrastructure, but also urged a "philosophical shift" to embrace "public private partnerships" (PPPs).

"Government needs to ask itself whether there is any great social benefit in the state owning certain assets, especially when that comes at the expense of other government priorities and responsibilities," Luxon wrote.

Labour is open to the use of PPPs in transport (but not in health or education), however its experience with Transmission Gully has meant no transport PPPs have been greenlit under its watch.

Luxon suggested the Government should immediately greenlight the 12 road projects, known as Roads of National Significance the Government had iced when it shifted transport funding away from highways in 2018.

Luxon said that projects should be "opened to private investment" and progressed.

"New Zealand cannot simply rely on the market to deliver projects of scale that are of national significance," Luxon wrote, suggesting the Government should draw up a "national master plan", or "New Zealand Prospectus", of what it wanted to build.

Despite being critical of the cancelled roads, Luxon was supportive of the idea of multi-modal transport, which is where the Government decided to direct its attention after axing those 12 roads.

"... our transport infrastructure solution is not a binary choice between rail or roads, but a comprehensive scaled-up solution of rail and roads and coastal shipping and other modes," Luxon wrote.

"Our system must be totally integrated and agnostic as to mode of transport as each region will have different needs."

He suggested the Government amalgamate the way it funded road, rail, and shipping - which the Government has subsequently done in part.

He said the fund that pays for transport projects with fuel tax and road user charge revenue should be supplemented with general tax revenue "to pay for social and environmental outcomes from investment in rail, walking and cycling".

A list of ten policy priorities from Infrastructure NZ was attached to that letter. One of the priorities included was to establish national three waters entities, taking water services from councils - a policy National now firmly opposes. It is not clear from the correspondence, whether Luxon endorsed every part of the Infrastructure NZ advice he was sending to Ardern.

It is not clear either, whether the Prime Minister ever had the time to drill into the 68 page McKinsey report, however one person who did was then-Economic Development Minister David Parker, whose passion for dry economic literature, particularly Thomas Piketty, is well-known in Parliament.

In June of 2019, he wrote back to Luxon saying the Government was developing an "Industry Strategy" for 10 different sectors of the economy.

He said this was in part thanks to the advice of the Council and the McKinsey report it had sent the Government.

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Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon's letters to each other revealed - New Zealand Herald

In February, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was advised by a High Court ruling that her rigid COVID restrictions were a gross violation of human rights after workers were denied a right to work over skipping the vaccine.

By April, New Zealand lifted its vaccine mandate and urged its unvaccinated workforce, who have given decades of service to their community, to return to duty previously suspended for their personal health decision.

Since the restrictions were contested back in February, PM Ardern has changed her tune on touting the guidelines and stated that she was continually in favor of lifting the vaccine mandate.

Opponents of the PM have considered her claim baseless and a warped view of her long advocacy for the stringent procedures.

Members of the New Zealand Defence Force and police force were among the groups that lost workers over the vaccine rule, with many claiming religious or personal exemption but still subject to suspension.

The associated pressure to surrender employment involves a limit on the right to retain that employment, which the above principles suggest can be thought of as an important right or interest recognized not only in domestic law but in the international instruments, stated New Zealand Justice Francis Cooke.

He added, An obligation to receive the vaccine which a person objects to because it has been tested on cells derived from a human fetus, potentially an aborted fetus, does involve a limitation on the manifestation of a religious belief.

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New Zealand PM's COVID Restrictions Ruled 'Gross Violation of Human Rights' By High Court - OutKick

Politics

4 Apr, 2022 05:00 PM3 minutes to read

New Zealand stays at red, warning as the world hurtles to the climate danger zone and why Russias retreating Ukraines capital city in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

ANALYSIS:

Yesterday's decision on traffic light settings was a first glimpse at Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's appetite for risk with the Omicron peak in the rear-view mirror.

She could have reasonably moved Auckland to orange on the basis of falling case and hospital numbers, and on the back of increased protection from natural immunity following Omicron sweeping through the city's population.

It would have also sent a message that the million or so eligible Kiwis - a third of them in Auckland - who are yet to get a booster have had long enough.

She did a similar move in the Delta outbreak, when she ditched the 90 per cent double-dose bottom line because those who had bothered to get vaccinated didn't deserve to be held up by those who'd decided not to.

Instead, she delivered the opposite message.

"We do still want to ask that of people, yes," she said when asked about whether those who were yet to be boosted were still worth waiting for.

The unboosted were disproportionately represented in hospitals, she added.

"I worry that people hear the message that it's a mild to moderate illness and they think they don't need to bother. They do. Boosters make a difference."

Why? Because they meaningfully reduce the chances of serious illness, which reduces the chances of more hospitalisations.

These have dropped considerably in recent weeks, from 600-odd (out of 2700-odd ward beds across Auckland) in mid-March to 350 yesterday.

But they are still at the high end of the modelled median outbreak scenario, which topped out at just over 300. Strain on the healthcare workforce also continued to be a factor in Auckland.

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Ardern's underlying message was that restrictions needed to stay at their peak until more people were protected.

She didn't say how many more needed to be boosted, or what hospitalisation numbers needed to drop to.

Health boss Dr Ashley Bloomfield added that it wasn't about a number but the trend, which is definitely going down.

Yesterday the number of recorded cases in Auckland was 1835 (with 350 in Auckland's hospitals), down from 2300 (473 in hospitals) a week before that, 3279 (594 in hospitals) a week before that, and 4730 a week before that (605 in hospitals).

It still would have been a bold move to move Auckland to orange, given the public health advice to stay in red.

But Ardern dangled an Easter carrot - a review of traffic light settings on April 14.

By then, hospitalisation trends across the whole country might be falling. Only six DHB regions had hospitalisation numbers higher yesterday than they were a fortnight earlier - Lakes, Taranaki, Nelson Marlborough, South Canterbury, West Coast and Southern.

But the booster trend is also dropping. Yesterday there were only 866 booster doses administered, down from 1101 a week before that, 2244 the week before that, and 3199 the week before that.

Ardern will be hoping that, by the Easter D-Day, any nervousness about a potential move to orange might have moved some on the booster fence into action.

In this Covid-age of more personal responsibility, there's only so much political capital she can spend on those who are still deciding.

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Derek Cheng: Jacinda Ardern's underlying message in the decision to stay in red - New Zealand Herald

MOSCOW The Russian military says it has destroyed a shipment of air defense missile systems provided by the West.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said the military used sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles to destroy four S-300 air defense missile launchers on the southern outskirts of the city of Dnipro. He said about 25 Ukrainian troops were also hit by the strike on Sunday.

Konashenkov said in a statement Monday that Ukraine had received the air defense systems from a European country that he didnt name. Konashenkovs claim couldnt be independently verified.

Last week, Slovakia said it had handed over its Soviet-designed S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine, which has pleaded with the West to give it more weapons, including long-range air defense systems.

Slovakias prime minister office issued a statement late Sunday calling the news that the S-300 system given to Ukraine was destroyed disinformation. It was unclear, however, whether both sides are referring to the same airstrike. The Russians have targeted missile defense systems in three different locations in recent days.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR:

Ukrainian defenders dig in as Russia boosts firepower

Biden, Modi to speak as US presses for hard line on Russia

Ukrainian nuns open their monastery doors to the displaced

US doubts new Russian war chief can end Moscows floundering

Analysis: War, economy could weaken Putins place as leader

Go to https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine for more coverage

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OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

BRUSSELS Austrias foreign minister says Chancellor Karl Nehammer is taking very clear messages of a humanitarian and political kind to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said Monday that Nehammer decided to make the trip after meeting in Kyiv on Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and following contacts with the leaders of Turkey, Germany and the European Union.

Story continues

Schallenberg said ahead of a meeting with his EU counterparts in Luxembourg that we dont want to leave any opportunity unused and must seize every chance to end the humanitarian hell in Ukraine.

He added that every voice that makes clear to President Putin what reality looks like outside the walls of Kremlin is not a wasted voice.

Schallenberg said that Nehammer and Putin will meet one-on-one without media opportunities. He insisted that Austria has done everything to ensure that the visit isnt abused, and I think he (Putin) himself should have an interest in someone telling him the truth and really finding out whats going on outside."

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BRUSSELS Germanys foreign minister says Ukraine needs heavy weapons to defend itself and this is no time for excuses.

Ukraines president has warned that his country faces a crucial time and that Russian troops will step up operations in the east.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said as she arrived for a meeting with her European Union counterparts Monday: What is clear is that Ukraine needs further military material, above all heavy weapons, and now is not the time for excuses -- now is the time for creativity and pragmatism.

Germany broke with a foreign policy tradition after Russias invasion to supply arms to Ukraine but has faced criticism from Kyiv for perceived hesitancy and slowness in providing material.

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BRUSSELS European Union foreign ministers are meeting to weigh the effectiveness of the blocs response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid concern about Moscows preparations for a major attack in the east.

The ministers will hold talks with the International Criminal Courts Prosecutor-General Karim A.A. Khan as Western pressure mounts to hold to account those responsible for any war crimes in Ukraine.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who is chairing Mondays meeting in Luxembourg, deplored what he called the brutal, brutal aggression of Russian troops.

Borrell, who was in Ukraine over the weekend, says further EU sanctions against Russia are always on the table.

He says hes afraid the Russian troops are massing on the east to launch an attack on the Donbas, region in the east after Moscow withdrew its forces from around the capital Kyiv last week.

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LONDON Britains Ministry of Defense says Ukraine has beaten back several assaults by Kremlin forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, resulting in the destruction of Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery.

In an intelligence update released Monday morning, the ministry says Russian shelling in the two eastern regions is continuing.

Russias continued reliance on unguided bombs decreases their ability to discriminate when targeting and conducting strikes, while greatly increasing the risk of civilian casualties, the ministry said.

The ministry also said Russias prior use of phosphorus munitions in the Donetsk region raises the possibility they may be used in Mariupol as the battle for the city on Ukraines south coast intensifies.

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WELLINGTON, New Zealand New Zealand will send a military transport plane and a support team of 50 to Europe, as well as give money to Britain to buy weapons, as it significantly steps up its response to the war in Ukraine.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday that the C130 Hercules plane would travel throughout Europe to carry much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centers. She said the plane wouldnt fly directly into Ukraine as most military equipment is transported into the country by land.

Ardern said her government would also spend an additional 13 million New Zealand dollars ($9 million) on military and human rights support, including NZ$7.5 million for Britain to buy weapons and ammunition. Ardern said that brings New Zealands total contribution to the war effort to NZ$30 million ($20 million) with 67 people deployed.

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LVIV, Ukraine Ukraines president warned his nation Sunday night that the coming week would be as crucial as any in the war.

Russian troops will move to even larger operations in the east of our state, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

He accused Russia of trying to evade responsibility for war crimes.

When people lack the courage to admit their mistakes, apologize, adapt to reality and learn, they turn into monsters. And when the world ignores it, the monsters decide that it is the world that has to adapt to them. Ukraine will stop all this, Zelenskyy said.

The day will come when they will have to admit everything. Accept the truth, he said.

He again called on Western countries, including Germany, to provide more assistance to Ukraine. During talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Zelenskyy said he discussed how to strengthen sanctions against Russia and how to force Russia to seek peace.

I am glad to note that the German position has recently changed in favor of Ukraine. I consider it absolutely logical, Zelenskyy said.

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BERLIN -- Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday.

The Austria Press Agency reported that Nehammer told reporters in Vienna on Sunday that he plans to make the journey. It follows a trip on Saturday to Kyiv, where he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

APA reported that Nehammer aims to encourage dialogue between Ukraine and Russia and also address war crimes in his meeting with Putin.

Austria is a member of the European Union and has backed the 27-nation blocs sanctions against Russia, though it so far has opposed cutting off deliveries of Russian gas. The country is militarily neutral and is not a member of NATO.

Nehammer said he was taking the trip on his own initiative, and that he had consulted with the European Unions top officials. He said that he also informed Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

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Live Updates | EU ministers assessing bloc's response to war - Yahoo! Voices

Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern have been very mean to the worlds Covid Cinderella, New Zealand. Just when we thought we were off to the Ball of Normality with the rest of the world, the wicked stepmother (in the form of the World Health Organisations General Tedros) has waved his wand.

His advisor, Helen Clark, wants lockdowns. Masks. Social distancing. Contact tracing. Testing. Isolation. Quarantines. Greater surveillance powers for the WHO. A one size fits all for global health architecture costing $31 billion per year.

The World Health Organisation which youd think by now would be an international laughing stock but apparently not intends to take complete control of world health spending, funded by the G7 countries, to the tune of $US19 billion for the strengthening of health systems. This means more power to Dr Doomfield/Bloomfield/Gloomfield and Arderns apparatchiks it is their moment to swoop down on the nation with the infamous COVID-19 Response Act, lock us all up, and jab the lot of us to their hearts content.

Tedros reckons the world needs stronger government (aaargh! Ardern et al. even stronger?) and a common approach. It is integral to The Great Reset.

According to Helen Clark, we have a proven menu to stop transmission. Could she possibly be referring to the clueless, catastrophic carry-on conducted by Dr Bloomfield/Doomfield et al? Yep, yep She is.

Clark wants the WHO to have authority (weve got the chills already) to publish information on outbreaks with pandemic potential immediately, without the approval of governments. As Ardern probably wants Clarks job at the WHO or something similar, she wont be making any objection. The WHO should be given authority (that word again) to set benchmarks for healthcare around the world.

Imagine it. Tedros in charge of your healthcare

Clarks wishlist is a long one. A universal health and preparedness review to control healthcare in countries. She means all countries.

The WHO has failed to address the side effects of the approved drugs Remdesivir and Midazolam. Not to mention the statistically unusual sudden-death and/or collapse of sports players worldwide.

What happened to freedom of medical choice? Just where are all the fems and their chorus of My body, my choice?

Where are they?

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Ardern and Clark's next pandemic will be horrid - The Spectator Australia

OPINION: Its 18 months in and, as we near the likely halfway point for this majority Labour Government, the issues of the election are tentatively taking shape as parties begin to jostle for position.

The Government has now almost cleared the decks of its major Covid-19 policies. Mondays announcement that the traffic light settings would remain in red seemed a bit out-of-step with where the country was at. You can argue over whether the settings should already have changed, but the likelihood is that they will near the end of the coming week.

Besides, a mixture of the big sick and self-imposed restrictions are hitting business activity. Ask anyone in a central city.

Ministerial staffers who previously spent their days doing Covid-related work are now finding that, all of a sudden, they are back to doing what they were previously getting on with work that their bosses are actually in charge of. This as director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield announced that he was leaving.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

David Seymours ACT is pushing National from the right, claiming to have been the more effective opposition party over the past year.

READ MORE:* Green Party co-leaders keen to stay on through next election* Election 2020: Crunch time as referendum results come in and Labour concludes talks with the Greens * Election 2020: Decision on Government to come on Friday, with Greens given one chance to agree on deal

One of the more interesting dynamics playing out now is the relationship between the two major parties and their smaller, more ideologically pure, fellow travellers.

So, while Labour was busy making diesel vehicles cheaper to run this week by reducing road-user charges following on from petrol tax cuts a couple of weeks ago the Greens have been aggressively accusing Labour of subsidising fossil fuels, something on which it spent a fair bit of its Apec agenda trying to reach a deal.

Of course, reducing road-user charges isnt a subsidy for diesel, but it does make the fossil fuel cheaper.

Similarly, the Greens are also now pushing hard on rent controls. Its a good retail politics issue for the Greens: superficially, rent controls look like a good idea especially to those paying through the nose for often dank accommodation.

Under co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw, the Greens hit a remarkable political achievement in 2020 increasing the partys vote at the same time that Labour massively increased its. The centre-left vote was grown, rather than Labour or the Greens cannibalising each other for the same votes.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stops to answer questions from reporters in the halls of Parliament.

But now the Greens see renewed opportunity. Despite being sort of in government with Labour, providing two ministers in Shaw and Davidson, they are chafing against what they view as Labour arrogance and high-handedness.

Jacinda Ardern came to power promising that she was going to sort housing, poverty, inequality and climate change. The issues remain decidedly unsorted. For those on the left who would like to see Labour crank out a fiscal cannon and spray the joint with money, the Government has been a disappointment. There have been big increases in spending, but not the sorts of direct intervention in the economy the Greens favour. Next election, you would expect the far-left party to pick off some of Labours vote.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Greens co-leader Marama Davidson is pushing the Government hard from the left about rent controls, while the party is also accusing it of subsidising fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, on the right, a quite different thing is going on. In the House this week, National shifted from talking about the cost of living to lack of delivery. The party thinks there is fertile ground here, in the same way that the cost of living crisis seemed little more than just a repetitive and slightly quixotic campaign before inflation ticked up and it really took off.

National figures reckon that this will become a weak point for Labour, because of its tendency to present inputs (money) as an outcome or achievement. On this basis, National thinks it will be able to identify a lot of waste where the Government has announced money for something that doesn't seem to have delivered much by way of outcomes. Mental health is a good example: despite more money being announced, little has been achieved and, in some cases, there is little evidence the money has even been spent.

Time will tell.

National is also firmly getting back into law and order, specifically crime in Auckland. Police Minister Poto Williams is certainly a weak link in the Governments front bench, and National is honing in on her. Crime is an issue, like inflation, where politics usually follows real life: if there is a problem with crime, voters know it they also know if there isnt. Gangs are a slightly different issue, but law and order is potent.

ACT, meanwhile, is doing its best to hold up its vote by putting daylight between itself and National on key issues. Climate and co-governance are two on which it is trying to win votes by having a clearer, more free-market and less costly position than National. Its policy on co-governance is simple: it is against it.

The party released a poll it conducted in Tauranga, showing that half of all voters think ACT, not National, has been the most effective opposition party over the past year. For ACT, retaining its vote in the 8 per cent to 10 per cent range into the next election is about cementing itself as a consistent and credible party to the right of National.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

The Budget is fast approaching.

The Government keeps on. A Budget is fast approaching on May 19, when we will get a sense of what is coming over the next few months. It will be what sets Labour up for next year and reveals how politically bold it is including on climate change.

There are a bunch of changes still to come this term: fair pay agreements, the new Three Waters legislation and reform, the emissions reduction plan, centralising the health system, and possibly reforming the Resource Management Act.

Whether a National/ACT government would repeal some, all, or any of these changes is an open question. When it comes to Three Waters, just about every opposition party professes to be into localism before it gets into government.

Balancing the politics of the now, while successfully clearing the decks of the big changes, will be crucial to Labours re-election chances.

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Nearly halfway through the term, parties start to stake out territory - Stuff

WELLINGTON, March 3 (Reuters) - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern sought to cool simmering resentment over the slow unlocking of the country's pandemic restrictions on Thursday, a day after police cleared a weeks-long Canada-style protest outside parliament.

Police in riot gear battled protesters late into the night on Wednesday, finally bringing an end to the occupation which, despite acts of violence and extremist elements, helped rally some support for its calls to end pandemic restrictions. read more

In a special session of parliament to discuss the protest, the most violent in decades in the normally peaceful city, Ardern promised things would change, but gave no timeframe for easing curbs.

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"Our people are coming home. Soon, tourists will return. Vaccine passes, mandates, restrictions they will all change. There is reason to feel hopeful," she said.

A one-time poster child for tackling the coronavirus, New Zealand's swift response to the pandemic and its geographic isolation kept the country largely COVID-19 free until the end of last year, winning Ardern strong support. Total deaths stand at just 56.

However, anger over vaccine mandates for people working in sectors such as health and education and strict border closures have put pressure on the government to now soften its stance in line with much of the rest of the world.

"Ardern has to weave a path between acknowledging some of the government's mistakes without appearing like the protesters had a point," said Andrew Hughes from the Research School of Management at Australian National University.

"She can't be seen condoning their behaviour but she also can't be seen as tone deaf."

A Horizon Research snap poll released on Feb. 18 found 30% of those polled supported the protests and about the same percentage was opposed to Ardern's vaccine mandate policy.

Some local businesses helped fund the encampment and well known figures such as Olympic yachtsman Russell Coutts, Winston Peters, a former deputy prime minister under Ardern, and former prime minister Jim Bolger urged dialogue.

"I'm not anti-vaccine (I'm vaccinated) but I'm definitely against forced vaccinations," Coutts said in a Facebook post two weeks ago.

Ardern refused to meet the protesters, who she said had resorted to violence and bullying.

OMICRON SHIFT

The country of 5 million has a high COVID vaccination rate, with more than 95% of the eligible population double vaccinated. More than 70% of people have had a booster dose.

COVID-19 cases were restricted to fewer than 15,000 in total by end-2021 through a strict elimination approach, but the arrival of the Omicron variant has seen cases top 20,000 a day, reaching a cumulative total of nearly 150,000 on Thursday.

The government says restrictions that have frayed the public's patience are set to stay in place until at least mid-March, when the Omicron surge is expected to peak.

The saga has dented Ardern's popularity since she won a second term in a landslide election victory in 2020.

Her support fell to 35%, its lowest level since she became prime minister in 2017, according to a 1News Kantar Public poll at the end of January. However, Ardern remains preferred prime minister and her centre-left coalition government is still on course to win the next election in late 2023.

The government has made some changes to its tough stand on borders that prevented many Kiwis from returning home due to a compulsory stay in limited quarantine facilities. read more

But the border remains closed to foreigners, unlike in neighbouring Australia which relaxed curbs this month.

Ardern said last week that her cabinet may bring forward the entry of foreign tourists from the current proposed date of October, but again gave no timeframe.

"Unquestionably Ardern's elimination strategy was a massive success and saved lots of lives," said Martin Newell, a spokesman for Grounded Kiwis, representing overseas New Zealanders.

"But with Omicron the government just seems to have been mentally unprepared for a shift in its approach."

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Reporting by Praveen Menon; editing by Richard Pullin

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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New Zealand's Ardern faces down frustration over pandemic curbs - Reuters.com

Jacinda Ardern visits a West Auckland drinks factory last month. Come election year, more voters could be smiling, too. Photo / Dean Purcell

OPINION:

The parliamentary term has run barely half its course, yet some of the Ardern Government's detractors are already speculating that it is doomed.

Not so fast, naysayers.

A year and a half can be an aeon in politics.

It is reckless to write off a Government amidst a bout of mid-term turbulence and a slump in its popularity.

In 2004, Helen Clark's Labour-led Government endured a gnarly second term as Mori anger over the foreshore and seabed issue escalated. Then with the Don Brash-led National Party on the charge over "race-based political correctness", welfare dependency and law and order tensions, Labour fell up to 10 points behind in the polls. For five months, in fact, National maintained a lead.

Yet Clark was able to rally her troops, reclaim the narrative and, aided by Brash's fumbling ineptitude, surge back to win the next election, thus securing a third term.

These are unequivocally difficult days for Jacinda Ardern's Government. The pandemic and its consequences have been tiring for everyone, especially ministers charged with making the big and critical decisions on protecting lives and livelihoods.

It certainly has been tiring for the populace. Sir Geoffrey Palmer noted in a newspaper column last week that after two years of having their freedoms restricted restrictions greater than any outside wartime "people are sick of it". Business failures, chronic labour shortages and cost-of-living increases are adding to a feeling of malaise.

Unsurprisingly, the polls have tightened and National can be expected to pull ahead of Labour in the near future even though Wednesday's police operation to disperse the deranged mob who defiled the parliamentary precinct in the name of anti-mandate protest action might yet play favourably for the Government.

4 Mar, 2022 04:00 PMQuick Read

A dip in popularity as a consequence of general pandemic-related disquiet, coupled with a range of economic headaches, need not be a terminal condition for the Government.

This is because March could be our worst month for Covid-19. Omicron cases are expected to hit a peak in the next three or four weeks. Beyond the autumn there is the prospect of better times ahead.

Of course, the possibility remains that a new variant, causing severe disease, emerges and displaces Omicron, which would necessitate more restrictions in the future. That is the big unknowable.

But in announcing this week that self-isolation requirements are being lifted, and that the end is nigh for the divisive MIQ system, the PM will have lifted the mood of many affected by border bottlenecks. Ardern has herself acknowledged that the anguish of MIQ has been real for families and their loved ones.

Presupposing that the pandemic begins to abate in the second half of 2022, the Government will go into the election year basking in the distinction of a job well done: one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, and public health measures that have worked, as evidenced by the lowest death rate from Covid-19 in the OECD.

Overall, the Government's response to the pandemic has reflected the country's inherent anxiety about the virus.

The latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, drawing on fieldwork conducted in mid-February, found that about 75per cent of respondents believed the restrictions were about right, or could have been tighter.

And nearly half (47per cent) of those surveyed by Ipsos wanted the border kept closed, with nobody allowed in or out of the country until Covid-19 was contained.

So the Government's cautious approach has been well aligned with public sentiment. That will not be forgotten by voters come election time.

There has clearly been an economic price to pay for Covid-19, as closures and labour shortages have illustrated, though macro indicators are heading in the right direction.

Tax revenue fuelled by strong GST returns is above forecast and debt levels remain well below economies with which we compare ourselves, so much so that the markets barely flutter.

The deficit remains lower than expected, despite Grant Robertson dishing out $23 billion in wage subsidies and resurgence payments to businesses over the past two years. The country is still expected to return to surplus in 2023/24, three years earlier than forecast in the May 2021 Budget.

But it is clear that economists and the populace are in two different places. In the focus groups people tend to use the likes of their hairdresser or local caf as an indicator of economic health, and so the narrative that has emerged is one of flatness and failures.

They commonly lose sight of the bigger picture namely the resilience of the New Zealand economy as reflected by the Crown's financial accounts and a buoyant export sector. This mindset can be expected to change as border restrictions are lifted and international tourists begin to arrive.

Inflation, pushed along by rising oil prices and supply chain constraints beyond New Zealand's control, had been expected to begin easing from the third quarter of 2022, but with Russia waging war in Ukraine, those hopes might've been dashed for now.

If cost-of-living pressures are weakening as election year begins, and consumer behaviour changes quickly, the Government stands to have the benefit of tailwinds in the run-up to the election.

Imagine for a moment that 2023 sees inflation cooling, farmgate milk prices still at giddy heights, overseas tourists beginning to return, Kiwi exporters cashing in on the UK Free Trade Agreement, FTA talks in Brussels striking paydirt and house prices stabilising.

Under that scenario it would be an intrepid punter who bets against the Government's re-election.

- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.

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Mike Munro: All finished for Ardern? Don't you believe it - New Zealand Herald

Comment

New Zealand now finds itself standing virtually alone among western countries in having applied few meaningful economic sanctions against Russia.

New Zealands initial response to Russias invasion of Ukraine has been remarkably nuanced.

In Parliament this week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern againcondemnedVladimir Putins attack, describing it as the blatant act of a bully brutal, intolerable, and an act of aggression.

Other party leaders largely echoed the Labour leader with the National Partys Christopher Luxon describing Putin as completely unhinged.

The strong language and condemnation may suggest that New Zealands position is indistinguishable from that of other western countries.

However, New Zealand now finds itself standing virtually alone among western countries in having applied few meaningful economic sanctions against Russia.

This week, evenJapanandSingaporefell into line with EU, UK and US-led moves to make Russians pay a heavy economic price for Putins brutal war. Both countries had been traditional hold-outs on sanctions.

But instead of immediately reintroducing a ready-to-go autonomous sanctions bill from National that Labour had previously blocked, this week Ardern said the Government was working on a bespokeRussian sanctions bill.

For Ardern, this is a typically pragmatic solution, with advice to be sought and details to be worked out in good time.

But the problem for the Government is that, globally, nuance has largely been thrown out of the window in the wests response to Russias brutal assault against its neighbour.

Shocking images of Russias bombing and destruction of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities alongside the massive influx of refugees into Poland and other EU countries have galvanised the worlds response to Ukraine in a way few would have thought possible, even just a few short weeks ago.

Rather than Arderns cautious approach, rapid decision-making and retribution are now very much the order of the day.

Across the west, countries are rushing to supply Ukraine with weapons to defend itself. From New Zealands part of the world, Australias contribution of$70 million in armsis notable.

But Germanys overnighttransformationof its foreign policy is perhaps even more instructive. In response to the invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz not only scrapped the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia itself a hugely significant and symbolic shift but is also reversing Germanys long-held ban on sending arms into foreign conflicts. Berlin will now supply Kyiv with a wide range of weapons.

Scholz is also pledging an enormous new, one-off war-chest of 100 billion (NZ$163 billion) and is committing to lifting its military budget to a minimum of 2% of GDP a huge increase on the countrys current spending level of roughly 1.5%.

After a steadydeclinefrom 3% of GDP in 1980 to a low-point of about 1.1% in 2015, New Zealands own military spending has been increasing rapidly ever since.

It currently hovers around the same 1.5% level that Germany had until Scholzs new commitment.

Could New Zealand follow Germanys lead and seek to increase its military budget even further?

Both the recently releasedIndo-Pacific Strategyof the US and New Zealands new, hawkishdefence assessmentsuggest that it may.

The two new blueprints openly identify China as a threat.

Russias sudden invasion of Ukraine may well be harnessed to emphasise the risk of geopolitical instability in Asia and the perceived need to counter this with military deterrence.

If Russias invasion of Ukraine heralds the start of a new militarisation of the world, Labours decisionlast yearto spend another $20 billion on defence could be just the beginning.

During the early Cold War period, US President Dwight Eisenhowers Cross of Ironspeechin 1953 warned of the trade-offs that higher military spending brings: Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

In other words, the peace dividend of the post-Cold War era is now gone as geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmerpoints out.

By arming Ukraine and imposing massive economic sanctions on Russia, the west hopes that Vladimir Putin will reconsider his actions and stop the war.

Alternatively, some hope that Putin could be rolled in apalace coupthat brings a more benevolent leader to power.

But there are far less palatable endings as well.

If Russias economy collapses, it may bring about a repeat of Russias turmoil of the 1990s the ultimate outcome of which was Putins own rise to power.

Another worst-case scenario could be a war inside Russia itself.

The Russian Civil War from 1917 to 1922 still holds the Guinness World Record for being the worldscostliest civil war, with some 10 million soldiers and civilians dying from fighting, starvation and illness.

It is also worth recalling the more recent, sobering experience of the Arab Spring.

Revolutions across the Middle East in 2011 ultimately resulted in long-running, bloody civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen and powerful new strongmen in Egypt and Tunisia who tolerate little in the way of dissent.

As always, it is a case of being careful what you wish for.

Away from sanctions and military spending, New Zealand has some other useful options that it could tap into as a small democracy.

Using the tools of multilateralism has been one pathway.

Foreign affairs minister Nanaia MahutacondemnedRussias actions at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva as a clear act of aggression, a blatant breach of Ukraines sovereignty.

New Zealand was also one of more than 90 countries to co-sponsor a UN General Assemblyresolutioncondemning Russias military offensive, which passed with support from 141 of 193 member states.

Moscows current disregard for diplomacy makes an intermediary role for New Zealand seem less likely in the short term, although Putins belligerence has not stoppedIsrael,Franceand evenChinafrom trying to keep dialogue alive this week.

Another area on which New Zealand could focus is the nuclear threat.

Vladimir Putin announced on Sunday that he had placed Russias nuclear forces onhigh alert.

The implicit nuclear threat also underpins therefusalby Nato and its allies to enforce the no-fly zoneover Ukraine that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for.

Jacinda Ardern made no mention of the nuclear dimension in her speech to Parliament this week.

This is perhaps surprising, given that Labours adoption of a nuclear-free policy in 1984 became such a cornerstone of New Zealands identity and outlook.

Ardern declaredthat climate change was my generations nuclear-free moment during Labours 2017 election campaign.

Behind the scenes, however, this week New Zealand did sign up to ajoint statementfrom 13 countries at the UN mainly from Latin America that expressed grave concern and rejection of Putins threats.

Phil Twyford, New Zealands disarmament minister, also expressed similar sentiments in aspeechto the UN Conference on Disarmament.

Twyford called Putins nuclear threats an irresponsible and destabilising act that could bring catastrophic consequences for humanity.

In just one week, Russias invasion of Ukraine has already changed geopolitical calculations around the world.

Putin has certainly given New Zealand a lot to think about.

And this is just the start.

Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Projects international analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a learner of Arabic and Russian.

This article can be republished under a Creative CommonsCC BY-ND 4.0license. Attributions should include a link to the Democracy Project.

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Ardern's response to Ukraine invasion is too cautious - Newsroom

Lifestyle

1 Mar, 2022 07:15 PM2 minutes to read

Jacinda Ardern reveals she forgot her and Clarke Gayford's anniversary. Video / The Hits

We've all forgotten important dates before - and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is no exception.

The PM has quite the to-do list each day, and sometimes important things get left off the list, she revealed on The Hits Breakfast this morning to hosts Jono Pryor and Ben Boyce.

The hosts asked her if, with everything she has to remember, she occasionally forgets things - and admitted she recently forgot a very important date.

"I forgot our anniversary," she said on air this morning.

"I did ... Clarke sent me a message just as I was going into a Cabinet committee."

"I just had to own it. There was no wriggling out of it, there was no backup, it was all on me."

It's not the first time the PM's busy schedule has had an impact on her personal life.

When the Omicron outbreak first hit this year, she was forced to postpone her wedding, which was rumoured to be taking place in late January in Gisborne.

Ardern called off her wedding to partner Clarke Gayford as the country prepared to move to the red traffic light setting on January 23.

"When it comes to events, whether it's a birthday or a wedding or any kind of event of that nature, gathering limits of 100 do come in with the red light setting at 11.59pm tonight," Ardern said.

"As for mine, my wedding won't be going ahead but I just join many other New Zealanders who have had an experience like that as a result of the pandemic. And to anyone caught up in that scenario, I am so sorry, but we are all so resilient and I know we understand we are doing this for one another and it will help us carry on."

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Jacinda Ardern reveals she forgot anniversary with Clarke Gayford on air with Jono and Ben - New Zealand Herald