Category Archives: Fiscal Freedom

For many years, Chile was the exception in Latin America, with an unprecedented model of sustained economic development. Contrary to populism and demagoguery, the Chilean recipe for the last forty-five years was respect for private property and entrepreneurial freedom. Indeed, the phrase Chilean miracle was even used by economist Milton Friedman to describe the Chilean economys reorientation in the 1980s from socialism to a free market economy. Many other commentatorslooking at Chiles remarkable growth in recent decades have come to a similar conclusion. Twenty years ago, it looked like Chile was well on its way to joining the worlds developed countries as the wealthiest in the world. However, this predicted path looks less and less likely as Chiles reputation, as a country of freedom and opportunity is coming to an end.

One year after the so-called Social Outbreaka new movement of riots and leftist activismdesigned to undo recent decades of promarket reformit is possible to conclude that Chile will NOT become a developed country in the coming decades if it continues down this path. With the current systemthe country cannot end the political, economic, and social decline that has lasted more than a decade. It is a cultural problem, reflected in many areas, including rampant violence and crime, thatalong with economic hibernation and politiciansirresponsibilityhas contributed to the collapse of the Chilean economy.

International indicators explain the debacle of the Chilean economy in the last decade:

1. The Index of Economic Freedom (by the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal) shows that Chile fell from eighth place in 2008 (the country with the freest economy in the Americas) to twentieth in 2017.

2. The Doing Business Index (World Bank) indicates that Chile fell from fortiethin 2008 to fifty-nineth in 2020.

3. The Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International) shows that Chile fell from twenty-third place in 2008 to twenty-sixth in 2020.

4. The Fiscal Competitiveness Index (Tax Foundation) places Chile among the five worst in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). More specifically, Chiles maximum corporate tax rate is 27 percent, while the OECD average is 23 percent(Chile was the only country that increased this tax by ten percentage points in the last decade!).

The economic recovery proposals are not promising either. On the one hand, the proposed government plan Step by step, Chile recovers consists of the Keynesian aphorismthat is, a lax fiscal policy of sustained increase in public spending (9.5 percentmore than in 2020) and the financing of the fiscal deficit (9.5 percentin 2020) with higher public debt (which would reach 44 percent of GDPin 2022 and 70 percentin 2030, the highest amount in the last thirty-five years). It is the prelude to new tax increases for families and entrepreneurs in Chile. At the same time, the Board of the Central Bank of Chile has agreed to the monetarist aphorism,a loose monetary policy to keep the monetary policy interest rate at 0.5 percent(but the gross interest rate should be around 4 percent!). These artificially cheap loans portend higher debt rates for Chileans (total Chilean household debt has reached 75.4 percentof their disposable income, a historical record).

Economic theory reveals that higher riskof confiscation (for example, political instability, public sector corruption, lack of public order, arbitrary institutional arrangements, manipulation of the money and credit supply, high risks of default, taxes, and expropriation regulations) tend to anticipate decreasing levels of entrepreneurship andthereforeof economic development. These interventions affect peoples ability and willingness to look beyond the immediate present and take a long-term view to adopt new ideas and take risks. As Jess Huerta de Soto said, whoever wants to favor development must encourage and promote entrepreneurship; on the other hand, whoever prefers underdevelopment and social conflicts must put all kinds of obstacles in the way of entrepreneurship. These facts explain why Chiles average annual growth in the last six years has been 0.7 percent, far from the 5.5 percentbetween 1977 and 2013 that positioned the country as a development model for Latin America.

In conclusion, Chile will not be a developed country unless it returns to a culture of respect for private property and free enterprise. This must be done while addressing long-term development challenges, fostering ideas of freedom that make countries prosper.

Bunn, D., andAsen, E. 2020. International Tax Competitiveness Index 2020. Washington, DC: Tax Foundation. https://files.taxfoundation.org/20201009154525/2020-International-Tax-Competitiveness-Index.pdf.

Friedman, Milton. 1994. Passing down the Chilean Recipe. Foreign Affairs73, no. 1: 17778.

Huerta de Soto, Jess. 2008. The Austrian School: Market Order and Entrepreneurial Creativity. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

. (1992) 2010. Socialism, Economic Calculation and Entrepreneurship. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

Miller, T., Kim, A., and Roberts, J. 2020. Index of Economic Freedom . Washington, D.C.: The Heritage Foundation.

Transparency International. 2020. Corruption Perceptions Index 2019. (Berlin): Transparency International. https://www.transparency.org/cpi2019.

World Bank. 2020a. Doing Business 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/688761571934946384/pdf/Doing-Business-2020-Comparing-Business-Regulation-in-190-Economies.pdf.

. 2020b. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.

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Chile Will not Turn into a Developed Nation If It Would not Change Course - The Shepherd of the Hills Gazette

Monday, October 26th 2020 - 09:18 UTC The report said US efforts, including by the Coast Guard, were critical to countering these destabilizing and malign actions.

US national security adviser said the US Coast Guard (USCG) was basing Enhanced Response Cutters in the western Pacific for maritime security missions, citing illegal fishing and harassment of vessels by China.

In a statement, Mr Robert O'Brien also said the Coast Guard planned to evaluate next fiscal year the feasibility of basing Fast Response Cutters in American Samoa in the South Pacific.

The statement described the United States as a Pacific power and added that China's illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, and harassment of vessels operating in the exclusive economic zones of other countries in the Indo-Pacific threatens our sovereignty, as well as the sovereignty of our Pacific neighbors and endangers regional stability.

It said US efforts, including by the Coast Guard, were critical to countering these destabilizing and malign actions.

To that end, the USCG is strategically home porting significantly enhanced Fast Response Cutters ... in the western Pacific, the statement said, without detailing where the vessels would be based or how many were involved.

Mr O'Brien said the new-generation Coast Guard vessels would conduct maritime security missions, such as fisheries patrols, and enhance maritime-domain awareness and enforcement efforts in collaboration with regional partners who have limited offshore surveillance and enforcement capacity.

Enhancing the presence of the USCG in the Indo-Pacific ensures the United States will remain the maritime partner of choice in the region, his statement said.

Mr Pompeo led a meeting of foreign ministers from India, Japan and Australia this month in Tokyo, a grouping Washington hopes to develop as a bulwark against China's growing assertiveness and extensive maritime claims in the region, including to most of the strategic South China Sea.

The US Navy regularly angers China by conducting what it calls freedom of navigation operations close to some of the islands China occupies that are also claimed by other states.

O'Brien's announcement comes less than two weeks ahead of the Nov 3 US presidential election, in which President Donald Trump's campaign has made a tough approach to China a major foreign policy theme.

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US Coast Guard will increase presence in the Pacific to contain the threat of China's IUU fishing - MercoPress

A recent story in the Press Republican, my local newspaper, talked at great length about the decision to keep the border closed, but never mentioned what Prime Minister Trudeau said. There was much commentary about what a bad situation it is, etc, which it is. Prime Minister Trudeau indicated the reason that the border would stay closed was the United States failure to get COVID under control, which we clearly have not done, irrespective of what Mr. Trump is now touting on the campaign trail. This is very problematic for our region, and I fully concur with the elected officials and Mr. Douglas who are deeply concerned about this, but I think sharing the information with the public as to the reason why is very important. Statistically, the US had about 80,000 new cases on Friday and Canada is running about 4,100 cases a day, now their populations are not comparative since the US is approximately ten times larger than Canada, but even if you applied that multiple you would see that the US is over 100% above the Canadian numbers. There is no practical way to screen people at the border unless you had a test available that could be read in 15 minutes to make the decision as to whether or not to let someone enter. Sticking with COVID, Governor Christie after he exited intensive care said We have treated Americans like children, not adults, and everyone should be wearing a mask. The only solution here is to see a requirement for universal mask wearing so that we can get some control of this virus, and get everything opened up, including the border. Mr. Trump continued to treat us like children with his comments at the debate and at Rallys to the effect weve turned the corner and its going away.

Senator McConnell advised the White House on Tuesday of last week, not to enter into a stimulus agreement with Speaker Pelosi prior to the election. He indicated strongly that many Republicans were against it, and he may not have the votes to pass it in the Senate. My suspicions are that he is afraid that a sufficient number of Senators who are in tough races will, in fact, vote for a large stimulus joining with Democrats to pass the bill, leaving the majority of Republican Senators having voted against it. I also suspect that Mr. McConnell has now concluded that Mr. Trump is going to lose, and he needs now to curry favor with the base by putting limits on spending, although they seem not to have much of a problem earlier in 2020. The shifting sands of politics.

New York State has suffered a 17% decline in sales tax revenue, and $2.8 billion overall decline in tax revenue. These are significant events relative to the New York State budget. It does not look like they will recover during the rest of the New York State fiscal year ending in 2021, and thus, cuts are likely in the offing.

NASAs landing on the asteroid named Bennu was successful as was the liftoff, and the collection of materials is on its way back to earth. This is a significant scientific achievement under any circumstances, and may prove to be truly educational when the materials are analyzed. Science continues to astound.

Airline passenger screenings reached one million this past Sunday for 2020 which is a recent milestone, but when compared to the same day a year ago, it is a 60% decline. This is obviously a good sign that the numbers are increasing, but also points to the sharp decline in the airline industry and travel in general. We, of course, run the risk of new spikes in the virus that is likely to drive down the number of people willing to travel by air.

Chinas economy grew at 4.9% in the 3rd quarter from the year earlier, which indicates the Chinese economy is going back towards its trajectory pre-COVID. The International Monetary Fund expects Chinas economy in 2020 to expand by 1.9%, making it the only major world economy to grow this year while ours is expected to shrink by (4.3%), and the Euro zone by (8.3%).

As the conversation rumbles on about the issue of whether or not to wear masks and the assertion by many that refusing is an exercise of a constitutionally granted freedom brings to mind the famous quote by Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendall Holmes, who became known for his analysis of what constitutes a clear and present danger and the resulting limitations on free speech holding that you cant yell fire in a crowded theater. The failure to wear masks is a clear and present danger to others as COVID is surging throughout the U.S.

Bill Owens is a former member of Congress representing the New York 21st, a partner in Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher and Trombley in Plattsburgh, NY and a Strategic Advisor at Dentons to Washington, DC.

The views expressed by commentators are solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of this station or its management.

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Bill Owens: Confounding And Confusing Events 10/26/20 - WAMC

The United States is increasingly intent on decoupling its economy and its technology sector from China as part of the new cold war brewing between the two. The time has come for the rest of the world, including Japan, to consider how to survive the turmoil caused by the two superpowers agendas.

Up until the United States intensified its trade conflict with China in March 2018, there were indications of improvements in bilateral relations, including several rounds of compromise and agreements reached at the top levels of both administrations. However, the COVID-19 pandemic spreading out of China has hit the United States particularly hard, leading to the greatest losses of any nation in the world. This has sparked a powerful backlash inside the United States, and with the approach of the November presidential election, the administration of Donald Trump has doubled down on its anti-China stance. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the traditional paradigm of engagement with China has failed. In July, the administration closed the Chinese Consulate-General in Houston, Texas, describing it as a center for espionage and intellectual property theft. The Chinese government retaliated by closing the US Consulate-General in Chengdu, Sichuan. These actions then pushed the new cold war into overdrive.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent end of the Cold War international order, the United States took the initiative in globalizing markets, financial institutions, manufacturing, and high-tech production. This led to fast, large-scale financial and social coupling with China. In addition to financial and economic internationalization, a main focus of the new international order has become a global supply chain connecting raw material sourcing, manufacturing, and sales of products. The Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 200710 sparked by US subprime loan collapse, were both driven by this financial and economic coupling.

The concept of decoupling in US-China relations first arose in 2019, and reflects the United States strong awareness of a change in the technology landscape. New Chinese tech companies like Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have disrupted the monopoly on cutting-edge telecom technology formerly held by US firms like Apple and Amazon, and continue to increase their international share. The administration views Huawei and its ability to offer low-cost 5G communications equipment in particular as security risk since it can easily be subverted by Chinese intelligence agencies. The United States has taken direct action on the tech front in response.

As of August 2020, the United States has taken steps to ban Chinese firms from five key areas. First is App stores: TikTok, the most highly downloaded video app in the world, and apps from Tencent have been removed from US storefronts serving the Android and iOS platforms. Second, the US government has moved to deny Chinese smartphone manufacturers access to US-designed smartphone apps by preventing their pre-installation on Chinese-made handsets. Third is cloud services, where Alibaba and other Chinese firms have been banned from offering services in the US market. Fourth, the undersea telecom cabling market has been placed off-limits to cables and other tech with Chinese state involvement. And fifth, in the field of telecommunications, Chinese carriers have been banned from US networks.

These moves have not been limited to the United States. Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and India have undertaken similar measures. Secretary of State Pompeo has expressed hopes that 30 other nations, including South Korea and members of the EU, will join in.

US-China decoupling is also expanding beyond the high tech and communications fields, and is encompassing security and struggles to build regional spheres of influence. Secretary Pompeo has called for a new alliance of willing democratic nations to resist the Chinese Communist Party, and has been pushing European and Pacific nations to join together in an anti-China network. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has cooperated on the issues of Chinese human rights and Huawei, announcing a ban on Chinese communication equipment to go into effect by 2027. France has called on China to preserve the one country, two systems policy with Hong Kong, agreeing to cooperate with the United States in COVID-19 pandemic countermeasures as well. On the other hand, Germany has been more reserved in its opposition to China, and has held back on a Huawei ban.

China has also come into conflict with the US freedom of navigation program as it has continued its program of building and fortifying artificial islands and deploying air and naval forces throughout the South China Sea. In July, Australia submitted a letter to UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres opposing Chinas claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea, thus aligning itself with the United States. Chinese Coast Guard ships have also entered the waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea for 100 days in a row, forcing the Japan Coast Guard to mount an emergency response each time.

Japan has been increasing distance from China amid the intensifying US-China confrontation, and is gradually aligning itself with the United States. However, Japan should consider whether it is reasonable to follow the American lead now, even if it cannot be part of any international order with China at the head.

The first issue is that decoupling itself is premised on zero-sum game theory, and could weaken the current global balance, which is built on interdependence and non-zero-sum thinking. In a world filled with interdependent relationships, any structural decoupling could result in a new cold war structure. The real drive of the United States and other western nations is most likely a desire to win the high-tech arms race with China, thereby avoiding a new international order under Beijings control. At the same time, though, China remains a massive market that they do not want to lose.

Second is whether the United States will consistently follow through on its global anti-China strategy in the future. It is easy to imagine that the United States will resist stepping aside to allow China, which has already become a superpower, to take its place as world leader, and so will only increase its resistance. However, no matter how strongly it resists, every step Washington takes in opposition to China will end up sacrificing some of its own advantage. In his book Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydidess Trap? Graham Allison analyzes the conflict between the United States and China in terms of Spartas excessive caution toward Athens, which led to ancient Greeces Peloponnesian War. He also speculates on means by which the two powers could avoid what seems an almost inevitable conflict.

My own analysis, however, leads me to believe that the United States stance will change subtly with the new administrative structure after the US presidential election, whether or not President Trump is replaced. The United States will likely not aim for absolute victory, but will rather search for a compromise that offers some benefit to China. In July, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper indicated he plans to visit China within the year, and reiterated his commitment to a constructive and results oriented relationship with the country. On the manufacturing front, US electric car manufacturer Tesla posted profits of $104 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2020, despite the economic downturn of the pandemic. One of the key drivers behind those profits is the production and sales output from its new Tesla Giga Shanghai factory. This shows that while the United States and China may be in a trade war, there are still signs of cooperation between the two, though they are shrinking.

Third is the issue of how to understand Chinas true strategy and intent. At the July meeting of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo, members agreed to begin formulating a basic strategy leading to 2035. This will probably include a more concrete approach to equalizing itself with the United States both economically and militarily. Chinas main intent will most likely be to skillfully extend its global influence as it continues to show resolve in the face of increasing US aggression, while avoiding open conflict. Most recently, the conflict has been playing out in the field of AI. As Mercedes Ruehl of the Financial Times writes, despite climbing Sino-American tensions, Chinas AI firms continue to raise money, win overseas business, and see their share prices rise. . . . Their resilience further fuels the view that U.S. steps to isolate and contain Chinas technological rise are only going to make Beijing more determined to become self-sufficient in key technologies. And current US moves to keep foreign researchers out of its universities and companies, she notes, threaten to accelerate the trend toward Chinese supremacy in the AI research field.

How should Japan approach the current situation? It seems inevitable that it will enhance its cooperation with the United States and the West, considering the implications failure to do so would have for the countrys security and political organization. However, Japan has little hope of a long-term growth strategy if it breaks ties with China. The Xi Jinping administration is also eager to woo Japanese business. Currently, Beijings main intent is to build an independent supply chain that is resistant to US interference, and it has indicated that cooperation with Japans strong manufacturing industry is essential. The development of US-Chinese decoupling could result in serious damage to the economies and societies of nations caught in the middle. What can be done to avoid becoming the rope in an international tug of war?

A hegemonic conflict between the United States and China is unavoidable, but the rest of the world cannot allow that to reshape the international order into a new cold war structure. Japan should coordinate with other democratic nations and reinforce its ties with them, including for defense, while avoiding any overt signs of enmity toward China so that it can forge robust ties on both economic and social fronts. There are likely many people in the United States and in Europe who think the same. No one wants to be swept up in the two superpowers battle for leadership. Rather, the nations of the world would prefer to join together to face mounting global issues like the pandemic, natural disasters, and ecosystem collapse. What the world needs is a third powera group of nations, regions, and peoples that can stand apart from the principles guiding the two superpowers.

(Originally published in Japanese. Banner photo: The US and Chinese flags superimposed over the logo of social media giant TikTok, whose owner ByteDance has been ordered to sell its US operations in order to remain in that market. Reuters/Kyd.)

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The Pitfalls of US-China Decoupling and Dangers of the New Cold War - Nippon.com

Because sometimes the hunter becomes the hunted.

Jos Eduardo dos Santos State of the Union address to Angolas Parliament in October 2013 included a shocker: Trade with former colonial master Portugal for which the country remains the fourth-largest export destination would be stopped, the then president threatened. There have been misunderstandings at the highest level of the state, and the current political climate does not encourage the implementation of the previously announced strategic partnerships, dos Santos said.

The presidential rebuke was prompted by Portuguese investigations into financial dealings of the Angolan elite, including members of dos Santos family. It didnt help that Portugals foreign affairs minister, Rui Machete, had publicly withdrawn his apology to dos Santos under pressure from the Portuguese public. And Luanda was willing to flex its muscles, aware of the economic lifeline it provided to Lisbon. Relations improved. Today, Angola and Portugal are witnessing a remarkable turnaround in their relationship, 45 years after the Central African state gained independence following 400 years of colonial rule.

Angolas economy grew from a state of chaos to stability in the years following the 2002 end of the countrys civil war, expanding by more than 8 percent in 2012. Around the same time, the Portuguese economy was smarting from the eurozone crisis.

So when Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho went hand in hand to beg the Angolan presidency in 2011 to invest in its privatization program, Africas second-largest oil producer, brimming with Chinese investments and billions of petrodollars in revenue, rose to the occasion.

In Angola, they call Portugal the laundromat.

Ana Gomes, former member of the European Parliament

Angolas elite began investing in Portugal while the latters middle and lower class increasingly started migrating to the former colony for work and business opportunities. Ties between the elite of both countries go back many years to the time some were in the same schools or got to know each other in the formative years, says Carlos Lopes, a professor at the University of Cape Town and a former executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

For a decade now, Angolas state oil corporation, Sonangol, has been a major shareholder in Millennium BCP, Portugals second-largest bank by assets. A third of the popular soccer team Sporting Lisbon is in the portfolio of Luanda-based holding company Holdimo.

Portugals Golden Visa program, which awards residency to non-EU citizens after investments upward of 350,000 euros ($415,000), has also lured many Angolan oligarchs and politicians to spend and launder money in Lisbon. In Angola, they call Portugal the laundromat, Ana Gomes, a Portuguese diplomat and former member of the European Parliament, says wryly.

The most influential of them remains Isabel dos Santos, the former presidents billionaire daughter who chaired Sonangol for almost two years until she was fired by her fathers successor, Joo Loureno, for corruption. In 2015, she acquired a 65 percent stake in Portuguese power corporation Efacec for 200 million euros ($236 million). According to the Luanda Leaks investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists earlier this year, she is also part owner of Portuguese bank EuroBic and holds significant interests in the countrys telecommunications and real estate sectors.

The new relationship between Angola and Portugal hasnt always been smooth. When oil prices plummeted in 2014, causing the Angolan economy to contract for a few years, the heat was felt across the Atlantic in Portuguese households whose breadwinners were affected by the economic fluctuations.

The combination of reduced oil prices, limited access to credit and the crisis surrounding Brazilian construction conglomerate Odebrecht the company at the heart of Latin Americas infamous Operation Car Wash scandal was also a major public works firm in Angola was a rude awakening for Angola, says Lopes, who grew up in Guinea-Bissau, another former Portuguese colony. It has led to a fiscal deficit and has eroded the purchasing power of the Angolan kwanza, he says.

When Isabel dos Santos accounts in Lisbon were frozen earlier this year as part of investigations by the Loureno administration, that also created a ripple effect. Angolans are now divesting many of their shares in key Portuguese corporations. There is no appetite in the current regime in Luanda to pursue the approaches of the past, Lopes says.

That shift could potentially hurt both economies. But decades after Angola gained political independence, the transition could perhaps grant Portugal financial independence from its former colony.

Continue reading here:

Is It Portugal's Turn to Gain 'Freedom' From Angola? - OZY

A DRUNK thug who shouted Freedom before smashing a bouncer over the head with a metal pole has been ordered to pay his victim compensation.

Ross Gibson, 32, impersonated Scots hero William Wallace before launching the savage attack on doorman Gabriel Greechan outside the Jam House club in Edinburgh.

2

Gibson had been thrown out of the city centre nightclub following an altercation inside and challenged the door staff while outside.

During last Decembers confrontation he picked up the metal pole and smashed doorman Mr Greechan over the head.

Edinburgh Sheriff Court was told the bouncer suffered a gash to his head and a large amount of blood was spilled onto the pavement.

Gibson admitted the unprovoked attack at a previous court hearing and he returned for sentencing today.

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Sheriff Roderick Flinn ordered the plumbing and heating engineer to pay Mr Greechan 300 in compensation.

Gibson, from Dalkeith, Midlothian, was also fined 200 and told he must also pay a victim surcharge of 10.

A witness, who did want to be identified, said: The guy was acting like a complete lunatic after he had been thrown out of the club.

He was shouting and swearing and acting the big man in front of the door staff and everyone was laughing at him when he began shouting Freedom at the top of his voice.

But we couldnt quite believe it when he picked up the metal barrier pole and hit one of the bouncers over the head - it was really shocking to see.

The doorman didn't go down but there was a lot of blood on the ground and the other door staff then jumped on him and took him to the ground before police were called.

Last month prosecutor Jack Castor said the bouncer was on duty outside the popular Jam House venue at around 12.40am on December 21 last year.

The fiscal said the doormans colleagues were in the process of ejecting Gibson from inside the club and once outside he turned violent.

Mr Caster said: The accused remained on the pavement and Mr Greechan told him to leave but the accused took hold of a heavy metal barrier pole.

The accuse lifted the pole above his head and Mr Greechan attempted to grab the pole from the accuseds hands.

The accused then brought the pole down onto Mr Greechans head.

Colleagues rushed in to help the injured doorman and Gibson was restrained to the ground by the staff members.

The fiscal added a gash opened up on the scalp of Mr Greechan which resulted in a large amount of blood spilling out onto the pavement.

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Solicitor Paul Dunne said his client had received injuries himself while being detained by the door staff but admitted his behaviour had been reckless.

Mr Dunne added Gibson has reduced his drinking significantly since the incident.

Gibson pleaded guilty to assaulting Mr Greechan by striking him on the head with a metal pole to his injury at Queen Street, Edinburgh, on December 21 last year.

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Edinburgh thug who shouted freedom before smashing bouncer over head with metal pole ordered to pay com - The Scottish Sun

The U.S. Navy's forthcoming force structure review may call for a fleet with up to 534 ships and submarines, including various kinds of unmanned vessels. The is far bigger than the existing Congressionally-mandated goal of a 355-ship fleet, which has long proven to be a struggle for the service to achieve. Plans for an even larger force could run into significant budgetary, recruiting, sustainment, and other hurdles.

Defense Newsgot the scoop on the expanded fleet concepts after obtaining draft copies of naval force structure studies that the Pentagons Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) and the Hudson Institute think tank produced for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Those reports date back to April 2020 and were meant to present a proposed ideal fleet composition and plans for obtaining it by 2045. The Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was also set to produce a study, the details of which remain unknown.

Those studies have since been evaluated, including through simulated wargames, and have been incorporated, at least in some part, into the Navy's Future Naval Force Study, according to Defense News. This new force structure plan was originally expected to be completed sometime last year, but has been repeatedly pushed back. At present, the plan is to use this final study to inform the next shipbuilding plan, which will accompany the service's budget request for the 2022 Fiscal Year, a public version of which should come out sometime between February and March 2021.

The Future Naval Force Study is a collaborative OSD, Joint Staff and Department of the Navy effort to assess future naval force structure options and inform future naval force structure decisions and the 30-year shipbuilding plan, Navy Lieutenant Tim Pietrack, a spokesperson for the service, told Defense News. Although COVID-19 has delayed some portions of the study, the effort remains on track to be complete in late 2020 and provide analytic insights in time to inform Program Budget Review [FY] 22.

USN

The proposed fleets from both CAPE and Hudson have significant differences compared to the Navy's existing structure, which currently has around 290 ships and is expected to grow to 301 ships by the end of this year. Both of the plans notably recommended cutting the total number of supercarriers to nine from the service's current total of 11, which includes the 10 Nimitz class carriers and the first-in-class USS Gerald R. Ford.

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The first-in-class USS Gerald R. Ford, in front, sails with the Nimitz class Harry S. Truman.

It is also worth noting that, by law, the Navy is compelled to always be working toward having a dozen active supercarriers, something that would have to change for either of these plans to go into effect. Hudson's proposal also included four smaller light aircraft carriers in addition to the remaining supercarriers, something the service was considering in April, but publicly said it was no longer exploring, at least in the near term, the following month.

CAPE also recommended a total of between 80 and 90 large surface combatants, a category that presently includes the Navy's Arleigh Burke class destroyers and Ticonderoga class cruisers, while Hudson favored reducing these number of these types of ships The Arleigh Burkes andTiconderogasaccount for 89 ships in the service's present fleet. There has also been talk about a future Large Surface Combatant that could replace both types, but the Navy is still just in the process of crafting the basic requirements for this vessel.

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The Ticonderoga class cruiser USS Hue City sails ahead of the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Oscar Austin.

The plan from CAPE called for around 70 small surface combatants, while Hudson proposed slashing that number to just 56. At present, the Navy's two subclasses of Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) are the only vessels it operates in this category. At the end of the day, the Navy expects to have bought 38 Freedom and Independence class ships in total, some of which are already being retired.

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The first-in-class USS Independence, in front, sails alongside the first-in-class USS Freedom. These are the leads ship in the two Littoral Combat Ship subclasses

The service is now also in the process of acquiring a new fleet of guided-missile frigates, presently referred to as FFG(X), which would also bolster the size of its small surface combat fleet. The first of these, at least, will be based on Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri's European Multi-Purpose Frigate design, also known by the Franco-Italian acronym FREMM.

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An artist's conception of the future FREMM-based FFG(X).

Both CAPE and Hudson were in favor of increasing the Navy's number of attack submarines, but Defense News did not give the exact proposed submarine fleet totals for either study. The service is already looking to begin development of a new attack submarine with capabilities more akin to its trio of advanced Seawolf class boats, which were originally designed primarily as hunter-killers, rather than the more multi-purpose Virginia class.

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The Seawolf class submarine USS Connecticut.

Defense News said that the proposals from CAPE and Hudson called for between 15 and 19 amphibious warfare ships, with CAPE's plan including 10 large amphibious assault ships, such as the Wasp and America classes, while Hudson's notional fleet had only five.

USN

The first-in-class amphibious assault ship USS America.

This category also includes dock landing ships, such as the San Antonio class, and these figures represent what would a major reduction in the number of traditional amphibious ships in the Navy's overall fleet. This is in line with new radical concepts of operation emanating from the U.S. Marine Corps under its present Commandant General David Berger, who has called for a major shift away from long-standing views of amphibious warfare.

As such, CAPE and Hudson included between 20 and 26 Light Amphibious Warships (LAW) in their proposed fleets, a type of ship that the Navy is now working to acquire based on requirements from the Marines, which you can read about in more detail in this past War Zone piece. The Navy has publicly said it could buy as many as 30 LAWs.

Sea Transport Solutions

An artist's conception of a so-called stern landing vessel design from Australian shipbuilder Sea Transport Solutions, which is reportedly one of the types the Navy and Marines are considering for the Light Amphibious Warship.

Both plans included significant increases in the total number of logistics and support ships in the Navy. This included adding between 19 and 30 new "future small logistics" ships, which could potentially be a type of offshore support vessel-type ship, and increasing the number of fleet oilers, ships able to refuel conventionally powered ships, from 17 to between 21 to 31. Hudson's proposal specially called for adding 19 command and support ships, as well. This is a category that presently includes an array of specialized vessels within the Navy, including its two Blue Ridge class command ships, Spearhead class expeditionary fast transports, expeditionary sea bases and transfer dock ships, and other logistics vessels.

By far, the most significant additions in both plans are dozens of unmanned surface vessels (USV), including proposed "large" types that are the size of traditional corvettes, and large unmanned undersea vehicles (UUV). At present, the Navy does not formally include any vessels in these categories when talking about the size of its overall fleet. The notional fleets from CAPE and Hudson included between 65 and 87 large USVs and between 40 and 60 large UUVs.

The Navy, as well as the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the White House's Office of Management and Budget, have all pointed to the inclusion of unmanned vessels as a way of finally reaching the existing 355-ship fleet goal. Their inclusion in the proposals from CAPE and Hudson meant that those notional fleets, which already included between 316 and 358 manned ships, would surge in size, with 534 total vessels between the maximum projected size among both studies.

USN

Two unmanned offshore support vessel-type ships the Navy, together with the Pentagon's Strategic Capabilities Office, has already been testing as part of the Ghost Fleet Overlord program.

Boeing

An artist's conception of Orca, a large unmanned undersea vehicle that Boeing is building for the Navy.

In a vacuum, both of these proposals make sense in many ways, especially given U.S. military's overall shift in focus to preparing for high-end conflicts and growing interest in distributed concepts of operation, including in the maritime domain, in recent years. The War Zonehas explored these developments on multiple occasions in the past.

In addition, as noted, the Marine Corps is undergoing a massive transition that includes a complete rethinking of how it conducts amphibious operations, especially in a distributed scenario in the Pacific region. The Navy, based on input from the Marines, and, to some extent, the Army, as well, has similarly begun re-evaluating how it might go about supporting ground forces during such operations.

On top of this, China is rapidly expanding the size and scope of its own naval capabilities, including adding significant numbers of new, advanced warships, including multiple aircraft carriers, and submarines. The most recent Pentagon report to Congress on Chinese military developments highlight naval modernization and shipbuilding as key areas where the People's Liberation Army is making major advances that challenge traditional American superiority. This, in turn, has already prompted calls for more funding for new Navy ships.

While there are very real strategic realities and concerns that are clearly driving these fleet proposals, it's unclear how realistic the Navy's plans for getting to the existing 355-ship mark might be, let alone increasing that total to over 500 vessels. In 2019, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessed that the shipbuilding plan the Navy had released that year, which envisioned hitting 355 by 2034, would cost the better part of a trillion dollars to implement. The Navy itself had acknowledged that, after getting to its desired 355-ship fleet, it would then need $40 billion every year just to operate and maintain all those ships, some 30 percent more than it spends annually now.

Defense budgets always ebb and flow from year to year and it is especially hard, in general, to project how stable funding might be over a period of 15 to 25 years. Any basic budgetary concerns about this massive increase in the Navy's overall fleet size are only exacerbated by the realities of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has already led to a pronounced recession within the United States and major global economic downturn. The fact of the matter is that the service is having trouble paying for the fleets it has now.

The Navy, which has had trouble meeting recruiting goals in recent years, will still need to provide crews for the existing and new manned ships under both proposals, as well. The service has explored a variety of reduced and other novel crew concepts, as well as deployment mechanisms, to help ensure readiness with, at best, mixed results.

USN

New Navy recruits arrive at the service's Recruit Training Command in Great Lakes, Illinois.

There is clearly a hope that a heavy emphasis on smaller ships with smaller crews and unmanned vessels could help defray many of these costs and reduce maintenance, infrastructure, and recruiting demands. However, the proposals from both CAPE and Hudson preserve much of the service's existing surface and submarine fleets and call for the addition of more traditional manned ships, not all of which would be small.

There can only be questions about whether the Navy's internal maintenance infrastructure, as well as the availability of contractors to provide additional shipyard capacity for repairs, could handle the increase in total ships, no matter how small they might be. The Navy's shipyards are in notoriously poor condition. Although there have been some recent investments made to attempt to refurbish them, this reality has limited their ability to keep up with the workload they already have. Two years ago, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), notably assessed that the service has lost more than two decades of operational time across its attack submarine fleets to maintenance backlogs.

The Los Angeles class submarine USS Boise is something of a poster child for these issues and is presently set to return to service in 2023, after which it will have been out of commission over a need for routine repairs for approximately eight years. This submarine only entered service in 1992, meaning that it is set to have spent nearly a third of its career in the Navy so far sitting idle.

USN

The Los Angeles class submarine Boise, pierside at Norfolk Naval Station in Virginia. When she returns to the fleet, scheduled to occur in 2023, she will have spent approximately eight years idle.

Glaring concerns about shipyard capacity, and the rest of the industrial base, apply to building any new ships for the Navy and keeping that construction on schedule. Cost overruns and delays, which are hardly unheard of in the service's shipbuilding programs, could easily have negative cascading impacts on its overall force structure plans.

Pushback from Congress is something that has repeatedly undermined Navy shipbuilding plans, as well. So, there's no guarantee that legislators will agree to fund whatever final proposal the Navy presents to them when asking for its 2022 Fiscal Year budget, either.

All told, while the studies from CAPE and the Hudson Institute are certain to be valuable additions to the continuing debate around the Navy's future fleet structure and shipbuilding priorities, it very much remains to be seen how much, if any of these recommendations will be implemented any time soon.

Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com

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These Are The Pentagon's Highly Questionable Proposals For A Navy With More Than 500 Ships - The Drive

On the annual International Day for Universal Access to Information, BIRN has released data showing dramatic drops in responses to freedom of information (FOI) requests by official bodies, either in time or in their entirety. BIRN keeps track of its FOI requests and produces reports on the topic, because the information gleaned from these requests enables it to produce investigative pieces and expose wrongdoing by governments, companies and powerful individuals.

In a world where COVID-19 has caused chaos and complexity, access to reliable and verified information is more important than ever As these last few months have shown, public health requires transparency whether this means statistics on the scale of the pandemic, or data on public spending. Access to accurate and trustworthy information ensures accountability for actions undertaken in response to the challenges caused by the virus, as the global community works to build back better, Audrey Azoulay, director-general of UNESCO, wrote on the occasion of the International Day for Universal Access to Information.

In a world where COVID-19 has caused chaos and complexity, access to reliable and verified information is more important than ever.

Audrey Azoulay, director-general of UNESCO

Since the beginning of the year, the data shows that BIRN journalists have sent at least 366 FOI requests to various public institutions in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey. So far, just 123 requests, or 33.6 per cent, have been answered, either fully or partially, while the remainder are either rejected or still not answered.

By comparison, between January 2017 and June 2019, BIRN journalists submitted 854 official requests to access public documents in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, with slightly under half (408) approved; 224 were partially approved, meaning the institutions provided only technical information; and 221 requests were either rejected or no answer at all was received, despite repeated follow-ups from the journalists.

At the time, BIRN concluded that while FOI laws in the region are among the most liberal in Europe on paper, implementation of these laws is well below European standards a situation that has deteriorated with the spread of the pandemic.

Public institutions that so far have been most likely to answer FOI requests are the Trade Ministry and prosecutors offices (Serbia), the Judicial Council (North Macedonia), the Kosovo Judicial Council and local municipalities (Kosovo).

BIRN also tests the transparency of public institutions by analysing their compliance with the Open Government Partnership (OGP), an initiative that aims to secure concrete commitments from national and subnational governments to promote open government, empower citizens, fight corruption, and harness new technologies to strengthen governance. So far, four Balkan states have joined the OGP: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Serbia.

Some of the commitments each state proposed in their Action Plans are related to: open data, anti-corruption, public procurement, developing e-governance, adopting laws to support transparency of public institutions etc. But despite their promise to be more transparent and open, these countries are still struggling to meet the commitments.

Albania, the oldest OGP member since 2011, has been shifting the OGP leadership from one institution to another, thus failing to fully implement its own commitments: fiscal transparency, public services, access to information, public administration and anti-corruption.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, which joined OGP in 2014, has not moved a step forward in fulfilling the commitments. Independent published reports note no improvement.

Montenegro, which joined in 2012, is still facing difficulties on internal leadership to deal with OGP and track the developments of the already committed institutions.

Serbia, which joined the partnership in 2013, has the highest number of set commitments. From a total of 14, it failed to develop an IT system to support e-governance, and failed to implement proposed amendments to the laws that were supposed to improve governmental transparency.

All four countries have failed in becoming more transparent and digitally accessible. Publishing the latest updates on their websites, such as financial reports, ministry meetings minutes, or other current and important public documents, seems like too long a process to be ever fully implemented.

Citing the fight against COVID-19, authorities in a number of Central and Southeast European countries extended the amount of time that state bodies had to respond to FOI requests, which media watchdogs warned at the time was part of a worrying crackdown on press freedom since the onset of the pandemic.

We are concerned that in some cases, the suspension or delay of FOI deadlines is being used to hinder media access to information and thereby shield the government from domestic scrutiny or criticism over its handling of the outbreak, warned Scott Griffen, deputy director of the International Press Institute (IPI).

Among those countries extending and suspending deadlines for FOI requests were Bulgaria, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia, while Poland passed a law suspending the activity of courts that would rule on issues related to FOI requests.

The current Polish government is not making access to public information easier, but complicating it further on the pretext of battling the pandemic.

Grzegorz Makowski, expert at the Batory Foundations ideaForum

Most of these laws have since been revoked as the states of emergency and lockdown ended, however experts are warning about other legislation in the pipeline that could have a similar detrimental effect on the right to information.

In Poland, for example, legislation has been proposed by MPs from the ruling party that would exempt officials from punishment for breaking the law if they did so as part of efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

The World Health Organization advises that, instead of absolving of liability, it is important to, among other things, produce conditions for better public oversight of the various public decisions made during the pandemic.

This recommendation could be implemented by facilitating access to public information via digitising, obliging institutions to proactively publish information online, shortening dates for information access etc Yet the current government is not making access to public information easier, but complicating it further on the pretext of battling the pandemic, Grzegorz Makowski, an expert at the Batory Foundations ideaForum, wrote.

In Montenegro, the government has been criticised for pressing ahead during the pandemic with proposed amendments to the Montenegrin Law on Free Access to Information that have raised serious concern among experts, who say that the majority of the proposed changes would have a negative effect and take Montenegro further away from international transparency standards.

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Governments Continue to Undermine Right to Information Under Cover of COVID-19 - Balkan Insight

Akali Dals exit from the NDA is a loss for BJP that goes beyond the limited numbers game in Parliament. Ties between the two parties date back to the Jan Sangh days, making Akali Dal perhaps BJPs oldest ally. Though the split was precipitated by resistance in Punjab to the farm reform legislations, relations had nosedived in recent years. Choosing the farm bills to exit NDA is a weak gambit. The bills promise better prices and greater freedom to small farmers to market their produce. Akali Dal may have missed a trick by cosying up to protesters, instead of turning the food processing industries ministry under its belt into a force multiplier for reforms and agricultural prosperity.

But each lost ally and the growing gap between the rhetoric and reality of cooperative federalism makes it harder for BJP to push its national agenda. In Maharashtra and Jharkhand, BJP failed to accommodate Shiv Sena and AJSU, ceding two states to UPA. Supportive or neutral parties like AIADMK, BJD, YSRCP and TRS may help BJP undermine opposition unity. But the Centres tightfisted approach on GST compensation, telling states to borrow to meet shortfalls, and CAGs finding that Centre retained Rs 47,000 crore of GST compensation cess in 2017-19 to understate the fiscal deficit, could undermine trust between BJP and regional parties. While the finance ministry has refuted the CAG report, its worth noting that adverse CAG reports on the previous UPA government helped the current NDA drive it out of power.

Many of its allies and friends, including JD(U), are uncomfortable with BJPs hard-edged Hindutva: One manifestation was the CAA late last year that spawned large scale protests. Sukhbir Singh Badal has attacked Centres callous insensitivity to minority sentiments. The shift from the Vajpayee eras emphasis on coalition dharma to the Modi eras emphasis on single party dominance has left allies chafing. Neither have BJPs sharp tactics in pushing through legislation in the just concluded monsoon session of Parliament without much discussion or debate, and including the controversial passage through just a voice vote of the crucial farm bills endeared it to other parties.

BJP needs to develop a more accommodating style, reach out to political parties across the spectrum and build political capital with allies and potential allies. Else it may face increasing resistance in Parliament or in states even when it is pursuing a productive agenda.

This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.

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Akalis divorce BJP: Despite national dominance, BJP needs a strong NDA for governance and cutting political ri - The Times of India Blog

One day in January, a pair of thieves in black ski masks drove into a restricted area behind a post office in Phoenix. They jumped out of their car, snatched several trays of mail that had just been dropped off and sped away.

Over six days in early April, thieves in New York City stole several bags of mail from a carrier cart, swiped packages from a Postal Service truck and made off with an entire pushcart filled with mail near the famed Grand Central station.

In a city outside Seattle, mail has been stolen so many times at a sprawling apartment complex that carriers avoid leaving unemployment and Social Security checks.

Its accelerated to the point where its insane now, Jack Huster, a post office supervisor in Federal Way, Washington, said of the regions mail theft problem.

The U.S. Postal Service has been under fire for months for a delivery slowdown spurred by changes brought by the new postmaster general, Louis DeJoy.

But the nations mail system has also been plagued by a previously undisclosed problem: It has no reliable system for tracking mail theft.

The Postal Services law enforcement arm acknowledged the shortcoming after NBC News, prompted by anecdotal accounts of an uptick in mail theft around the country, sought and received mail theft figures through a Freedom of Information Act request.

The Postal Inspection Service data showed that mail theft reports soared by 600% over the past three years, from about 25,000 in 2017 to roughly 177,000 through Aug. 24 of this year.

But when asked to explain the apparent explosion in mail theft, the Postal Inspection Service said the figures actually reflected multiple types of customer complaints, not just those involving theft. The agency said it couldnt provide figures on mail theft alone due to limitations in the internal system it uses to capture customer reports.

We discovered that the mail theft complaint numbers provided to you were overstated due to the fact they included a significant number of reported customer complaints unrelated to mail theft, such as mailbox vandalism, mail delivery issues, and matters unrelated to the mail or Postal Service, the agency said in a statement.

The reporting system allows for an individual to label their complaint as mail theft, however, the system is not designed to automatically discern which of these are legitimate complaints of theft of U.S. mail.

In addition to including complaints beyond mail theft, the data provided to NBC News was misleading because the 2017 figures reflected only Aug. 23 through Dec. 31, the agency said. The Postal Inspection Service said it was planning to develop a system to better track mail theft complaints.

For fiscal year 2021, we are developing a plan to more effectively capture our internal review of these complaints in order to track and report mail theft complaint data, the agency said.

The disclosure of the agencys complaint data and the revelation that mail theft is not being closely tracked comes during a time of intense scrutiny of the Postal Services ability to manage and safeguard the influx of mail-in ballots expected for the 2020 presidential election.

To me, its rather startling, said Janet Lauritsen, a criminologist who has done extensive research on national law enforcement statistics. They are supposed to investigate these issues, so how can it be possible that they do not have the data necessary to do those investigations? I cant make sense of it.

Lauritsen said that despite the Postal Inspection Services explanation, the sharp spike in complaint numbers is troubling. The data provided to NBC News, which was shared with Lauritsen, showed a rise in complaints from 99,506 in all of 2019 to more than 177,000 through the first nine months of 2020.

The trend in the data still indicates something, and it seems that their statements are designed to minimize alarms over the state of the Postal Service, said Lauritsen, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

The Postal Service did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Postal Service Office of Inspector General referred questions to the Postal Inspection Service.

NBC News initially requested 10 years' worth of data on mail theft reports but was told the Postal Inspection Service only had records dating back three years. No further explanation was provided.

Without reliable figures, its difficult to say if the nation is facing an epidemic of mail theft. But interviews with postal inspectors, police officers and supervisors, as well as local police officials, suggest parts of the country are seeing spikes in the crime.

Its not even a question. Mail theft has gone through the roof, said one Postal Police officer who works on the East Coast and requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media. And thats only whats reported. If they steal mail that you dont know was coming, you dont report it.

Mail theft reports flow into the Postal Inspection Service through a variety of sources: postal officials, local police and customers who can file online or by phone.

When asked if data was available on reports from sources other than customers, the agency declined further comment.

Several mail theft victims previously interviewed by NBC News, as well as this reporter, never received any follow-up after reporting to the Postal Inspection Service that checks they mailed in Jersey City, New Jersey, were stolen, altered and cashed.

They said they would open an investigation and get back to me, said Corey Eisenberg, who filed a complaint after mailing two separate checks last year that were intercepted and cashed. But they never did and I stopped following up.

Thieves employ an array of strategies to steal mail, experts say, largely dictated by geography and population density.

In big cities, criminals often target the blue collection boxes that dot street corners and amass large amounts of mail. In suburban and rural areas, thieves often focus on residential curbside boxes, which tend to be far easier to break into.

The police department in Minnetonka, Minnesota, released a bulletin last month warning residents about a spike in mail theft and advising them not to leave outgoing mail in their residential boxes.

Capt. Andy Gardner said the alert was sparked by a flood of reports from people who suspected their mail was stolen and from neighbors who found several pieces of opened and discarded mail in their yards or curbside boxes.

That means the thieves had already gone through it to look for anything valuable, Gardner said.

No arrests have been made.

In scattered cities across the country, criminals have gone directly to the source the post offices themselves in an effort to steal mail.

Cases of post office burglaries have been reported in South Carolina, Minnesota and Florida just last month alone.

Mail theft is not a new crime.

But it has evolved in many parts of the country, experts say, as criminal gangs have grown more sophisticated and identity theft has grown more lucrative. In and around larger cities, thieves have been known to work with more organized criminal networks to steal, alter and cash checks and to amass personal information from stolen mail to commit identity theft.

In the Southwest, where mail theft has been rampant for years, it remains a crime largely fueled by drug addiction, according to Liz Davis, a postal inspector and public information officer based in Phoenix.

They arent mastermind identity theft scammers, Davis said. They are usually drug-addicted people who try to find things in the mail like gift cards and cash, so they can get their next hit.

Earlier this year, a more audacious pair of mail thieves began hitting the Phoenix area.

The thieves made off with a significant quantity of mail from the Daisy Mountain Post Office in January, snatching trays of letters from a back dock and speeding away in a silver Toyota Corolla all in broad daylight, authorities said.

It was very brazen, and they were getting a lot of mail in one swoop, Davis said.

The coronavirus pandemic ushered in an uptick in mail theft, Davis said, likely because more people were experiencing financial hardship and the arrival of stimulus checks made an alluring target.

One of the suspects in the Phoenix post office caper, identified as Rodolfo Rodriguez, was arrested on Jan. 20 and charged with three counts of mail theft and four counts of robbery of mail, according to a criminal complaint filed in Nevada.

Federal prosecutors say Rodriguez stole mail from the Phoenix post office as part of a crime wave in which he and unidentified accomplices swiped mail from postal workers vehicles and robbed postal workers in Las Vegas, as well as stole letters from the dock of a Las Vegas post office.

Rodriguezs lawyer did not respond to a request for comment.

In several parts of the country, the postal service has replaced the blue sidewalk collection boxes with more secure models designed to combat a practice known as mailbox fishing, in which thieves pull mail out of the boxes using a wire or rope attached to an object slathered in glue or a sticky rodent trap.

The new boxes have cut down on mailbox fishing, but in New York City, thieves have merely changed tactics.

No longer able to fish mail out of sidewalk boxes, they began to target the carriers themselves, as well as their trucks.

The tamper-proof boxes just changed the mode of crime, said James Bjork, national business agent for the Postal Police Officers Association.

NBC News obtained internal Postal Police daily incident reports from late March to early May, four days in late May, mid-July to mid-August and a couple of days in early September.

The reports document 24 cases of thieves targeting carriers or their vehicles over 83 days on average, one every 3 1/2 days.

Some are harrowing.

While delivering mail at a building in the Bronx, New York City, on April 22, a mail carrier observed an individual going through his mail cart, a report says. As the carrier approached, the individual pointed a gun at him and fled. The individual was later arrested by New York City Police Department officers, and the weapon was found to be a paintball gun, a report says.

Two weeks earlier, on April 9, a mail carrier had his arrow key taken from him at knifepoint in Brooklyn, a report says, documenting a crime with significant consequences. Arrow keys are used to open up a variety of Postal Service boxes in a given neighborhood. Stealing one gives an assailant access to an entire universe of mail.

When a thief gets these arrow keys, its huge, said the Postal Police officer who spoke on the condition of anonymity. They are basically skeleton keys and they open every collection box, every relay box and every cluster box in a given ZIP code.

A Postal Service Office of Inspector General report released in late August found that the Postal Service's management controls over arrow keys were ineffective.

Specifically, the number of arrow keys in circulation is unknown, and local units did not adequately report lost, stolen, or broken keys or maintain key inventories, the report says.

Earlier this month, Kevin Ronny Williams, of Brooklyn, pleaded guilty to stealing mail in upstate New York using a Postal Service key given to him by a rogue Postal Service employee.

Williams, 23, admitted to using the key to open mail collection boxes in Liverpool in early March, according to federal prosecutors. Williams didnt operate in street clothes: He wore a Postal Service letter carrier uniform and clutched a Postal Service mail satchel while committing the crimes, prosecutors said.

The former Postal Service employee who allegedly helped him has also been charged and is awaiting trial, prosecutors said.

In the Seattle suburb of Federal Way, located along the Puget Sound, thieves swipe mail from curbside boxes with alarming regularity, said Huster, the post office supervisor.

He suspects the citys location, surrounded by highways, is one factor that makes it a magnet for thieves.

We have incredibly easy access to I-5 and the Pacific Highway, Huster said. You can hit a place and literally vanish.

Every day it happens, he added. The amount is ridiculous.

Mail carriers know to avoid leaving easily identifiable government checks in the cluster boxes at a large apartment complex in Federal Way, Huster said, because mail has been stolen from them on a regular basis.

We leave a notice informing them to pick it up at the post office, Huster said. This complex has really been a thorn in my side.

Huster said the thefts in his area largely victimize people who are older and live on fixed incomes.

These are often low-income people, someones grandma and grandpa, he said. They are the core people we serve, and Im just left speechless. I feel awful for them.

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Is mail theft surging in the U.S.? Postal Service inspectors don't know - NBC News