Category Archives: Corona Virus

ALBANY The state Department of Health is poised to direct a few dozen upstate hospitals to begin limiting elective surgeries this week, based on an executive order signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul late last month amid rising cases of COVID-19 and hospitalizations attributed to the virus.

Health department data indicates the order is expected to impact Albany Medical Center's system, and potentially the greater Capital Region, according to regional guidelines in the order.

"Elective surgeries" is a more limited term this time than during prior emergency declarations tied to the pandemic. Any facility selected on Monday by the health department to restrict elective surgeries would put the order into effect Thursday. It would be effective for at least two weeks.

The coronavirus has been impacting many upstate communities, particularly among the unvaccinated. Since the start of the fall, outside of the greater New York City metropolitan area, hospitals have reported nearly quadruple the amount of deaths attributed to COVID-19 than they did during the summer, according to a review of state data.

Hospital discharges attributed to the virus are roughly double this fall in upstate than they were in the summer, based on data of regions outside of New York City, Long Island and the Mid-Hudson Valley.

At the same rate, the availability of hospital beds is less than 10 percent in upstate New York, down from nearly 30 percent at the beginning of the summer which was central to Hochul declaring an emergency.

The data primarily reflects the influence of the COVID-19 delta variant, not the newly discovered, also highly contagious omicron variant. The state announced it confirmed its first five cases last week, with at least one case dating back to a late November infection.

Heading into last weekend, 31 hospitals would meet the state's threshold of less than 10 percent staffed acute care bed capacity. All of those hospitals are in upstate New York, according to the health department data.

Three of the hospitals are in the Capital Region: Albany Medical Center Hospital, Glens Falls Hospital and Saratoga Hospital, all of which are affiliated with Albany Medical Center.

"We have received the guidance but there is no final determination yet of which hospitals it effects," Albany Medical Center spokesman Matt Markham said in a statement Friday. "We will learn more on Monday."

The New York City metropolitan area is not experiencing a surge in cases or hospitalizations, but it also has higher vaccination rates and higher overall case counts from the first wave of the pandemic. That area, though, was the first to report confirmed cases of omicron variant.

The issue, Hochul has said, is also one exacerbated by a staffing crisis.

In upstate, the staffed bed capacity initially saw a substantial decline over the summer, before the governor's vaccination mandate for health care workers took effect. Between July 21 and 28, the available staffed beds in upstate dropped by 1,500, a 4 percent decline, according to state data.

Over the course of Hochul's vaccine mandate this fall, which has been opposed by some labor unions and lawmakers, staffed bed capacity continued to drop off by another 1,800 upstate. It is now around 35,000 beds in upstate that may not have staff to care for patients.

Hochul admitted last week that the decline is in part because of her mandate, but she was resolute in the purpose of it, which is to ensure a vaccinated person it taking care of a patient. Her position has been questioned by some who note vaccinated individuals may still carry the coronavirus, and many health care workers already had contracted the virus during the height of the pandemic, developing some level of immunity.

The mandate's effect also reduced capacity of nursing homes, group homes and other long-term care facilities, Hochul said. She told reporters last week that she was informed there are patients in hospitals who are waiting to be discharged to nursing homes, but the facilities do not have enough staff to appropriately care for thoseindividuals.

Hochul called on the National Guard to help mitigate the problem. The intended effect was to assist the facilities and free up bed capacity in area hospitals.

Medically trained National Guard members were initially deployed to 11 nursing homes, including one in the Capital Region, Shaker Place Rehabilitation and Nursing Center in Colonie, according to the state health department. Last month, the Albany County-run facility had to repair water damage to at least 50 bathrooms.

Gov. Kathy Hochul issued an emergency declaration to help free up hospital bed capacity by limiting elective surgeries.

Elective surgeries this time around is not expected to mean the same thing it had previously in the pandemic.

Instead, the health department listed a number of surgeries that are now considered essential: cancer, including diagnostic procedure of suspected cancer; neurosurgery; intractable pain; highly symptomatic patients; transplants; trauma; cardiac conditions with symptoms; limb-threatening vascular procedure; dialysis vascular access; and patients that are at a clinically high risk of harm if their procedures are not completed.

"We are encouraged by at least the procedures they consider essential," said Dr. John DiPreta, president of the New York State Society of Orthopaedic Surgeons.

The approach this time around is "more thoughtful" than it was last year, added DiPreta, who works primarily out of the Albany Medical Center system. He noted that more is known about the transmission of the virus and there is more of an emphasis on ensuring that prioritizing one health issue doesn't lead to other severe complications.

The health system, from what DiPreta said he has seen, has generally caught up its prior backlog of surgeries. He emphasized the need to treat people with intractable pain to avoid them falling and breaking a bone or continuing to rely on opioid pain killers to cope with chronic pain.

The baseline for a hospital to limit elective surgeries is triggered when its staffed acute care bed capacity is less than 10 percent over the course of a week.

The details become even more nuanced, based on a detailed memo issued by new state health Commissioner Mary Bassett on Friday.

A facility with 5 percent or fewer of its staffed beds available, based on a seven-day average, would need to defer non-essential surgeries not only in its hospital, but also ambulatory procedures.

But there are also facilities that may meet criteria under the new health department directive to suspend in-patient and out-patient procedures, even if they are not at the 5 percent threshold. Procedures at ambulatory surgery centers likely could continue.

The health department's determination is not limited to a hospital's bed capacity. Facilities within a region with severely limited bed capacity could also be regulated by the order.

The department also can restrict elective surgeries at hospitals in a region where staffed acute care beds are between 85 and 90 percent full, based on a seven day average, and the COVID-19 hospital admission rate for the region over the prior week is greater than four per 100,000 people.

The Capital Region would fall into the range for staffed beds, but is just short of the hospital admission rate, according to state data. On Nov. 26 and 27, the region would have fallen into both target rates, meaning all seven hospitals in the region could be guided to limit elective surgeries, regardless of their individual capacity.

Ellis Hospital in Schenectady is not at the 10 percent threshold, but it said through a spokesman that it has "proactively delayed some non-essential procedures in our operating rooms to free up staff to cover essential cases."

"Long before this pandemic, capacity has always been fluid, determined by available staff and patient volume on a given day," Ellis spokesman Philip Schwartz said in a statement Friday. "This is not new: We surge and flex every single day."

The hospital has experienced a 65 percent increase in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over the last three weeks, Schwartz said. He added that last month, more than two-thirds of admissions were unvaccinated individuals.

St. Peter's and Samaritan hospitals are also above the 10 percent threshold.

"With cases on the rise locally and regionally, we are flexing and scaling back to respond to the current surge," St. Peter's Health said in a statement.

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Elective surgeries in the balance as coronavirus resurges - Times Union

EL PASO, Texas -- There were 30 El Pasoans who died from Covid-19 over the past week, the El Paso Department of Public Health announced Monday afternoon, marking a tripling in the coronavirus fatality tally from the prior week when there were just nine.

Officials said 29 of the latest victims had underlying health conditions and there were eight breakthrough deaths; the youngest of the deceased were three victims in their 20s and the entire list of victims includes:

The total number of breakthrough deaths involving those who were vaccinated now totals 47 and the cumulative count of all Covid deaths during the pandemic in El Paso County numbers 2,902.

Meanwhile, 4,069 new virus cases were reported over the past week in El Paso County, with 1,443 of those being breakthrough infections. Officials didn't indicate any new cases involving the highly-contagious Delta variant; the total number of those cases remained at 20. There were also no cases reported as yet of the new Omicron variant.

Active infections in El Paso County are currently at 7,361.

Health officials advised that the number of El Pasoans believed to have recovered from Covid-19 throughout the pandemic was 153,520. However, doctors say some recovered persons may still experience lasting health impacts from virus infection.

Complete El Paso health department data on Covid-19 can be found online atEPstrong.org.

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El Paso's Covid-19 weekly death toll soars to 30, with 3 victims in their 20s - KVIA El Paso

Coronavirus - Delaware's Coronavirus Official Website

The FDA has authorized booster doses of all three U.S. COVID-19 vaccines for fully vaccinated adults. More Info

84%

1,401,573

2,173

17.5 per 10,000 people

338

7-day Average

199

8.1%

7-day Average

View data by county: New Castle | Kent | Sussex

84%

1,401,573

2,173

17.5 per 10,000 people

338

7-day Average

199

8.1%

7-day Average

View data by county: New Castle | Kent | Sussex

The State of Delaware implemented CDC guidance. If you are not vaccinated, wear a mask.

Forward Delaware connects jobseekers with resources to quickly learn skills for in-demand jobs, and employers with a qualified workforce.

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Coronavirus - Delaware's Coronavirus Official Website

If you suspect you or someone else has the coronavirus, you can call the following numbers and find out what steps to take next:

Germany has initiated a series of measures to slow down the spread of the virus and alleviate its effects on the economy. Find out more here:

The following measures are especially important for slowing down the spread of the virus:

Social distancing is crucial. This means: if you can, stay at home. Above all, events involving large numbers of people should be avoided. When it comes to interaction with older people, as little contact as possible is also best however hard that may be. They are especially vulnerable.

According to our current state of knowledge, the first patients presented symptoms of a respiratory infection caused by a new kind of coronavirus in Wuhan, a city in China with 11 million inhabitants. Its exact origin is unclear; many of the early cases involved people who worked at a market in Wuhan. However, the initial infection could have occurred at another location.

SARS-CoV-2 is the correct designation for what is often known simply as coronavirus. SARS is the acronym for severe acute respiratory syndrome.The virus causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a lung disease for which there is currently no vaccine. The infection is spread by human-to-human transmission.

Numbers are increasing dramatically. You will find the respective totals for Germany and the world on the website of the Robert Koch Institute.

Companies and research institutes in Germany are working at full steam to gain a better understanding of the virus and find a vaccine. Important actors in this field include the Robert Koch Institute and several German biotech enterprises, such as CureVac in Tbingen.

"Stay home!" is the motto during the Corona crisis. We put together lots of good ideas to discover Germany from home.

Imagine it is April 12, 2021 what does our world look like? How have our society, economy and politics changed as a result of the corona crisis? In our new series "Our world after corona" we talk to renowned researchers about our future after the corona pandemic. None of them have a crystal ball, but they do have some very concrete ideas about how corona will change us all.

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Coronavirus in Germany

Specialist Meric Greenbaum, left, works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Black Friday. Stocks dropped after a coronavirus variant appears to be spreading across the globe. Richard Drew/AP hide caption

Specialist Meric Greenbaum, left, works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Black Friday. Stocks dropped after a coronavirus variant appears to be spreading across the globe.

Stock markets around the world tumbled on Friday after scientists in South Africa identified a new, fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its biggest single-day drop of the year.

At one point, the Dow fell more than 1,000 points before recovering slightly to close down 905 points, or about 2.5%, for the session. Oil prices dropped more than 10%, their steepest one-day decline since early in the pandemic.

Virologists are rushing to learn more about the variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 that was first identified in Botswana, and which is rapidly outcompeting other versions of the virus in the region of South Africa that includes Johannesburg.

The United States said it will restrict travelers from South Africa and seven other countries starting Monday. It joined at least 10 other countries restricting travel from the region, including Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malta, the Netherlands, the Philippines and Singapore, The New York Times reported.

The variant, currently denominated B.1.1.529, reportedly could have far more mutations than those displayed by the delta variant, which became the dominant variant in most of the world over the summer.

It's not clear yet whether the mutations make this variant more infectious or whether it causes more severe illness, but researchers say the high number of mutations to the "spike proteins" the focus of a body's immune response may make it more able to get past the body's defenses.

Despite the spread of this variant, the number of COVID-19 cases in South Africa is still well below the delta surge earlier this year. But numbers are beginning to tick up again.

The European Commission recommended its members block travel from countries where the variant has been found, as Belgium reported a case, according to the BBC. The broadcaster said in addition to Botswana and South Africa, cases have also shown up in Hong Kong and Israel.

The World Health Organization called an emergency meeting on Friday, where it named the new variant omicron, after the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet, and designated it a "Variant of Concern."

"This news is putting the handbrake on markets," Peter Rutter, the head of equities at Royal London Asset Management, told Reuters.

"There is a huge range of outcomes that can happen. We could have serious lockdowns or we get no lockdowns and a booming economy," Rutter said. "The very fact we don't know, is what's concerning the market."

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were also down more than 2% on Friday, as U.S. markets closed early for the holiday.

Even after the global selloff, U.S. stock markets remain in positive territory for the year. The Dow is up more than 15% since the beginning of 2021, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are both up more than 20%.

Read more here:

Stocks and oil prices drop as the world reacts to new coronavirus variant omicron - NPR

People line up to get on an Air France flight to Paris at OR Tambo's airport in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Friday as several countries announced travel bans in response to the omicron variant of the coronavirus. Jerome Delay/AP hide caption

People line up to get on an Air France flight to Paris at OR Tambo's airport in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Friday as several countries announced travel bans in response to the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

The U.S. is putting travel restrictions in place in response to a new variant of the coronavirus circulating in southern Africa. The restrictions, which are set to take effect on Monday, are being implemented out of an abundance of caution, said a senior Biden administration official.

The World Health Organization announced Friday that it deems this strain, B.1.1.529, a variant of concern, and has named it omicron. It's the first new variant of concern since delta.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday night that no cases of omicron have been identified to date in the U.S., but that the agency has surveillance systems in place and it expects the variant will be identified quickly if it emerges in the U.S.

Here's what we know so far about the new variant and what we don't.

The omicron variant has been detected at faster rates than previous surges have been, suggesting it may have advantages over other variants.

The WHO says that the detection of the variant in South Africa coincided with a steep increase in cases there and that its prevalence is increasing in almost all provinces of the country. The variant has caused a particularly sharp rise in cases in the city of Pretoria, where it went from being essentially undetectable several weeks ago to now dominating the outbreak in a major city. Cases have also cropped up in Botswana, Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel during a relatively short period of time.

Scientists don't know yet, but they believe it has to do with the variant's mutations. "This variant has a large number of mutations. And those mutations have some worrying characteristics," said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove with the WHO's Health Emergencies Program, in a video statement. Scientists say the variant has a number of mutations that are known to boost transmissibility and others that can help the virus infect cells more easily.

Still, scientists caution that there isn't enough data yet to know for sure whether that's the case.

There are hints in the virus's genes that vaccines could be less effective against it and that there there could be a higher risk of reinfections.

But in an interview with NPR's All Things Considered, Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said: "Let me be clear, there is no data at the present time to indicate that the current vaccines would not work."

The concern here is based on the fact that some of omicron's mutations are ones that are already known to help the virus evade the immune system to resist antibodies and avoid detection by some of the body's front-line defenders.

But again, scientists don't have enough data to say for sure.

A passenger checks an electronic flight notice board displaying canceled flights at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa. Phill Magakoe/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A passenger checks an electronic flight notice board displaying canceled flights at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Researchers in South Africa and elsewhere are working to understand whether it could evade immunity; they're taking blood from people who have been vaccinated and then seeing how well the antibodies in their blood work against the omicron variant. They hope to have more data in a few weeks.

"It's really important that we have good SARS-CoV-2 surveillance around the world, including better genomic sequencing, because we want to be able to detect this virus where it's circulating," said the WHO's Van Kerkhove. She said the WHO's technical advisory group for virus evolution will be reviewing new studies as they come out to see whether there are any changes in severity of disease or any impact on diagnostics, therapeutics or vaccines.

"It's really important that these studies are done and done comprehensively," she said.

The list of countries includes South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia. The policy does not apply to American citizens or lawful permanent residents, but they must still test negative for the coronavirus prior to travel. About a dozen other countries have taken similar action, including the U.K. and some countries in Europe.

Continued here:

What to know about omicron, the new COVID variant - NPR

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have passed 260 million globally, according to Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed deaths has now passed 5.18 million. More than 7.81 billion vaccination doses have been administered globally, according to Our World in Data.

Eligibility for COVID-19 booster shots has been expanded in the United States, with millions of Americans getting their third dose last week.

The Czech Republic reported 27,717 new COVID-19 cases yesterday - the highest single-day total since the beginning of the pandemic.

Pfizer and MSD - known as Merck & Co in North America - have agreed to give licenses to firms in Viet Nam to produce COVID-19 treatment pills, the Vietnamese government has announced.

Three locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in Shanghai city have prompted authorities to limit tourism activities, while the city of Xuzhou has suspended some public transport after a confirmed asymptomatic case.

COVID-19 vaccination is safe for pregnant women and not associated with higher rates of complications, data released by the UK Health Security Agency showed on Thursday.

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people in selected countries.

Image: Our World in Data

The COVID Response Alliance for Social Entrepreneurship is a coalition of 85 global leaders, hosted by the World Economic Forum. Its mission: Join hands in support of social entrepreneurs everywhere as vital first responders to the pandemic and as pioneers of a green, inclusive economic reality.

Its COVID Social Enterprise Action Agenda, outlines 25 concrete recommendations for key stakeholder groups, including funders and philanthropists, investors, government institutions, support organizations, and corporations. In January of 2021, its members launched its 2021 Roadmap through which its members will roll out an ambitious set of 21 action projects in 10 areas of work. Including corporate access and policy change in support of a social economy.

For more information see the Alliance website or its impact story here.

South African scientists have detected a new variant of COVID-19 and are working to understand its possible implications, they said yesterday.

The variant - called B.1.1.529 - has a "very unusual constellation" of mutations, which are concerning because they could help it evade the body's immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists told reporters at a news conference.

South Africa has requested an urgent meeting today of a World Health Organization working group on virus evolution to discuss the new variant.

Other countries, including India, Australia, Japan and the UK, have voiced concern, with some moving to impose travel restrictions from South Africa and some neighbouring countries.

"This is the most significant variant we have encountered to date and urgent research is underway to learn more about its transmissibility, severity and vaccine-susceptibility," the UK's Health Security Agency Chief Executive Jenny Harries said.

Countries across Europe have expanded COVID-19 vaccine booster programmes, introduced plans to vaccinate young children and increased restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases.

Slovakia has gone into a two-week lockdown, the Czech Republic has declared a 30-day state of emergency, which includes the early closure of bars and clubs and a ban on Christmas markets, while Germany has crossed the threshold of 100,000 COVID-19-related deaths. Germany also reported a record number of daily COVID-19 cases on Thursday - 75,961.

In France authorities have said that COVID-19 vaccine booster shots would be available to everyone aged over 18, while the Netherlands is planning for new restrictions to slow the spread of the virus. Portugal has also announced it would reimpose restrictions.

The European Union's medical regulator has approved the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for use in children aged 5- to 11-years-old. The EU Commisison has also proposed that residents will need booster shots if they wish to travel to other countries in the bloc free of tests or quarantines next summer.

It also proposed accepting all vaccines approved by the World Health Organization for travel shots. The move would allow non-essential travel to the EU from outside the bloc for those vaccinated with Chinese- or Indian-made vaccines.

Meanwhile, the WHO Regional Office for Europe and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), estimates that 470,000 lives have been saved among those aged 60 years and over since the start of COVID-19 vaccination roll-out in 33 countries across the WHO European Region.

Written by

Joe Myers, Writer, Formative Content

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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COVID-19: Top news stories about the coronavirus pandemic on 26 November | World Economic Forum - World Economic Forum

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been briefed on the latest situation regarding the new Omicron coronavirus variant, the White House said on Saturday, as Britain, Germany and Italy reported detecting cases.

Biden, who was spending Thanksgiving with family in Nantucket, Massachusetts, told reporters on Friday: We dont know a lot about the variant except that it is of great concern [and] seems to spread rapidly.

Omicron was first detected in South Africa, leading countries including the US to impose travel restrictions on that nation and at least seven others in the region.

No cases of Omicron have been identified in the US to date, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. The agency expects that it would identify the variant quickly if it emerges in the US.

Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease specialist and chief White House medical adviser, told NBC on Saturday he would not be surprised if the variant were already in the US.

When you have a virus that is showing this degree of transmissibility and youre already having travel-related cases that theyve noted in Israel and Belgium and other places, when you have a virus like this, it almost invariably is ultimately going to go essentially all over, Fauci said.

Asked about next moves to deal with the Omicron threat, Harris told reporters the administration would take it one step at a time.

For now weve done what we think is necessary, she said.

The White House said senior health officials and its Covid response team were monitoring the latest updates on Omicron and were in regular touch with officials around the world.

In New York, one of the states hit hardest and earliest by Covid-19, the governor announced steps to limit a new winter wave of infections as transmission rates approach those of April 2020.

New York has recorded more than 2.7m cases of Covid-19 and more than 57,000 deaths, the fourth highest state death toll, behind California, Texas and Florida.

Late on Friday, Governor Kathy Hochul said: While the new Omicron variant has yet to be detected in New York state, its coming.

The next day, the banner headline on the front page of the New York Post tabloid said simply: Omi-God, Not Again.

Hochul also issued an executive order postponing elective surgeries, a move designed to protect hospital capacity until at least 15 January, and a disaster emergency declaration.

Covid hospital admissions in New York have increased to more than 300 a day. Hospitals with less than 10% staffed bed capacity, or those designated by the state, will be authorized to screen patients and restrict admissions.

Hochul said: Weve taken extraordinary action to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and combat this pandemic. However, we continue to see warning signs of spikes this upcoming winter.

The governor urged New Yorkers to mask up in indoor public venues, get tested when appropriate and to stay home when ill.

Two-thirds of New York state residents are fully vaccinated and close to 80% have received at least one dose, according to the governors office. But New York state is divided between intensively vaccinated downstate areas, including New York City, and upstate areas that have lower vaccination rates and higher rates of infection.

According to the state health department, Buffalo and western New York has a 9.67% Covid positivity rate. The positivity rate in New York City is 1.65%, less than half the 3.84% state average. Vaccination rates in some regions are as low as 52%. In New York City, 97% of Queens adults and 94% of Manhattan adults have had the jab.

Hochul urged New Yorkers to get the vaccination, noting that just under 10% of adults in the state have not.

The vaccine remains one of our greatest weapons in fighting the pandemic and I encourage every New Yorker to get vaccinated and get the booster if youre fully vaccinated, she said.

As parts of the US experience Covid surges, intensive care units in Michigan are approaching capacity. New York and other eastern states are watching closely.

On Friday the mayor-elect of New York City, Eric Adams, said the Omicron variant was a concerning development that we must watch extremely closely, and be prepared to address as a city, state and country. Our health officials must have response options available should it prove to be significantly more virulent.

Adams and the outgoing mayor, Bill de Blasio, earlier came together to urge city residents to get the vaccines and booster shots.

Continued here:

Biden and Harris briefed as US braces for arrival of Omicron Covid variant - The Guardian

The emergence of Omicron has prompted widespread speculation that it may be more resistant to Covid-19 vaccines than existing variants, including Delta. But what does that mean for the average double-vaccinated person?

All the vaccines currently available in the UK work by training the immune system against the coronavirus spike protein the key it uses to infect cells by binding to the ACE2 receptor. Omicron possesses more than 30 mutations in this protein, including 10 in the so-called receptor-binding domain (RBD) the specific part that latches on to this receptor. Delta has two RBD mutations.

However, even with all these changes, there will still be areas (epitopes) to which antibodies and T cells which grow in response to previous infection or vaccination will be able to respond.

If you scribble the mutations on to a picture of the spike proteins crystal structure, and relate that to all of the main antibody activities that we know about, it looks kind of terrifying like, most of your key, neutralising antibody targets will be shot to pieces, so whats going to be left of your immune protection? said Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

And yet, the soundings were getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesnt look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated, as if vaccination was still buying [them] some cover.

Then there are T cells immune cells that recognise and attack virus-infected cells, and educate antibody-producing B cells about the viral risk they are facing.

We all think that the T cells can see the differences [between variants], and that the T cell repertoire is much more impervious to it, so that might also buy you some protection, Altmann said.

The question is, how much protection? We know that people who have been double-jabbed can, and do, get infected with the Delta variant although the chances of this happening are approximately three times lower than if they hadnt been vaccinated. More importantly, vaccinated individuals are roughly nine times less likely to die if they do become infected.

Although it looks as though infection with Omicron is even more likely, Prof Paul Morgan, an immunologist at Cardiff University, said: I think a blunting rather than a complete loss [of immunity] is the most likely outcome.

The virus cant possibly lose every single epitope on its surface, because if it did that spike protein couldnt work any more. So, while some of the antibodies and T cell clones made against earlier versions of the virus, or against the vaccines may not be effective, there will be others, which will remain effective.

Further boosting that protection, by broadening access to third doses of Covid-19 vaccines, is therefore a good idea. Morgan said: If half, or two-thirds, or whatever it is, of the immune response is not going to be effective, and youre left with the residual half, then the more boosted that is the better.

For individuals who have been double-jabbed and infected with Delta, the picture is better still. If youve been double-jabbed and then infected with Delta and recovered, then you have got a very broad, very effective immune response, that probably covers pretty much any variant that you can think of, said David Matthews, professor of virology at the University of Bristol.

This is because such individuals have been exposed to the virus (through infection with Delta) and the spike protein from the original Wuhan strain (through vaccination). It means youve got an antibody response that covers both classic and modern strains and a very broad T cell response, not just against the spike protein, but against all the other proteins that Sars-CoV-2 makes and thats incredibly helpful, Matthews said.

The biggest worry is for those who remain unvaccinated. If they are right that this virus is even better at transmitting than Delta, and it looks like they are, what will happen is that it will speed up the rate at which this virus finds the unvaccinated and puts them in hospitals, and that will therefore increase the pressure on the NHS, said Matthews. That is what will trigger a lockdown, if hospitalisation rates go above a certain threshold, whatever that is.

There are some reasons to be optimistic, however. The first is that we dont yet know how the Omicron variant will behave in a highly vaccinated population, such as the UKs. It is quite possible that people who have had two or, better still, three doses of existing vaccines will be well protected against it, said Dr Peter English, a retired consultant in communicable disease control. But it is also possible that we will have much less protection from existing vaccines against this new variant. We do not yet have enough information to know.

Another is the existence of antiviral drugs, such as molnupiravir, to which Omicron should still be responsive. Nearly half a million doses of this twice-daily pill were due to be delivered this month, and will be given as a priority to elderly Covid patients and those with particular vulnerabilities, such as weakened immune systems, through a national study being run by the NHS. Because the drug is most effective when given in the early stages of infection, the MHRA recommends it is used as soon as possible after a positive test for Covid and within five days of symptoms appearing.

Existing therapies, such as the anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone, are also likely to work against Omicron, because it targets the bodys response to the virus, rather than the virus itself.

Finally, there is the possibility of modifying the existing vaccines to match the Omicron variant, if it really does evade vaccine-induced immune responses to a significant degree something we wont know for a number of weeks.

English said: The mRNA and vector platforms allow very rapid changes to be made to the precise antigens used. This means that it would be possible, relatively quickly (within a matter of months), to produce a vaccine with antigens tailored to a new variant.

Omicron is undoubtedly a bump in the road leading us out of this pandemic, and quite possibly a major pothole, but based on what we know so far, it seems unlikely to send us back to where we were a year ago. However, the more people who are fully jabbed, and have access to those third doses, the more certain of this we are likely to be.

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What does appearance of Omicron variant mean for the double-vaccinated? - The Guardian

Three generations, (from left to right) grandmother Genoveva Calloway, daughter Petra Gonzales, and granddaughter Vanesa Quintero, live next door to each other in San Pablo, Calif. Recently their extended family was hit with a second wave of COVID infections a year after the first. Beth LaBerge/KQED hide caption

Three generations, (from left to right) grandmother Genoveva Calloway, daughter Petra Gonzales, and granddaughter Vanesa Quintero, live next door to each other in San Pablo, Calif. Recently their extended family was hit with a second wave of COVID infections a year after the first.

On a Friday afternoon in early October this year, 8-year-old Maricia Redondo came home from her third grade class in the San Francisco Bay Area with puffy eyes, a runny nose and a cough.

"On Saturday morning we both got tested," says Vanessa Quintero, Maricia's 31-year-old mother. "Our results came back Monday that we were both positive."

Vanessa stared at her phone in shock and called her doctor's test-result hotline again, in disbelief. "This is wrong," she thought. "I hung up and dialed again. It's positive. This is wrong. I hung up again. And then I did it again!"

She was freaking out for two reasons. First, her large, extended family had already fought a harrowing battle against COVID-19 last year in the fall of 2020. The virus had traveled fast and furious through their working class neighborhood back then, in the East Bay city of San Pablo. Four generations of Vanessa's family live next door to each other in three different houses there, all connected by a backyard.

Vanessa was also terrified because she couldn't fathom another round of treatment against a more dangerous variant than she'd faced before. The pandemic has disproportionately struck Latino families across the United States, and delta is currently the predominant variant in the U.S., according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It's twice as contagious and may cause more severe illnesses than previous variants in unvaccinated people.

The family's bad luck was uncanny. Research suggests immunity against a natural infection lasts about a year. And here it was almost exactly the same time of year and the family was fighting COVID-19 again.

"Reinfection is a thing," says Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a specialist in infections diseases and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. "It probably manifests itself more when the variant in town looks different enough from the previous variants. Or enough time has elapsed since you first got it, [and] immunity has waned." He says a second infection is still not common, but doctors are starting to see more cases.

Computer models in a recent study suggest that people who have been infected by the virus can expect a reinfection within a year or two if they do not wear a mask or receive a vaccination. The findings show that the risk of a second bout rises over time. A person has a 5% chance of catching the virus four months after an initial infection, but a 50% chance 17 months later.

"The second time it was scarier because I'm vaccinated," says Vanessa referring to the family's second bout with the virus in October 2021. "Her dad's vaccinated. We're protected in that sense, but she's [Maricia] not."

Her 8-year-old daughter was still too young to qualify for a vaccine. This fall the little girl lay in bed wheezing. Vanessa tripled down on Maricia's asthma medication and the parents quarantined themselves inside, too. Vanessa shuddered at the prospect of telling her mother and grandma about a second round of positive test results.

During a 2020 family gathering on Halloween, Maricia complained she wasn't feeling good. Over the next few days Vanessa, and Vanessa's partner, mother, two cousins, two aunts, an uncle and two grandmothers all tested positive for COVID-19. Eventually at least 13 family members caught the virus at that time and several got quite sick.

Multiple family members had to be rushed to the hospital.

Vanessa, who, like her 8-year-old daughter Maricia, suffers from asthma, was the first person to need that emergency care. "I was on the floor," Vanessa remembers. "I couldn't even say 'I'm hungry' without coughing."

Then Vanessa's 51-year-old mother, Petra Gonzales, almost blacked out.

"I got a really high fever," says Petra. "There were times when I'd fall asleep and I was OK if I didn't wake up."

In last year's COVID bout, Petra landed in the ER with severe dehydration. Soon she heard that her 71-year-old mother, Genoveva Calloway, needed hospital care for dangerously low oxygen levels and was being treated at another hospital across town.

Unlike Petra and Vanessa, who were not admitted for an extended stay at the hospital in 2020, and slowly recovered at home, Genoveva's condition was critical. She spent day after day under close supervision from doctors and nurses.

"It was really painful not to be able to help my family, because we always help each other," says Genoveva, as her voice cracked with emotion. "We are always there for each other. It was so horrible."

Finally, after nearly two weeks in the hospital, Genoveva was discharged. She was still connected to an oxygen machine as nurses shuffled her out. When Genoveva and Petra greeted each other on the street, they embraced fiercely.

"She hugged me so tight," says Genoveva. "I'll never forget that. We missed each other so much."

A year later, though, Genoveva is still recovering. She's now plagued by interstitial lung disease. That's why another round of the virus this year is a terrifying possibility.

Fortunately the family's worst fears did not unfold. Genoveva was out of town when her great-granddaughter, Maricia, brought the virus home this time, and Maricia herself recovered. The other adults did not develop symptoms they credit the COVID vaccinations they'd been able to get before the delta surge this fall. Research published by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention concludes that vaccines offer better protection against reinfections than a natural infection. However, if a breakthrough infection occurs after someone's been vaccinated it will act like a natural "booster" and result in hybrid immunity according to Chin-Hong. He suggests most patients who are not immunocompromised wait three months until after a recent infection before getting a vaccine or a booster.

"Each exposure we have, whether it's from the infection or whether it's from the vaccine, improves our ability to combat an infection the next time around," says Dr. Julie Parsonnet, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Stanford University.

But Parsonnet also notes there are a lot of variables at play. First, immunity wanes. Second, the virus can mutate. Third, no vaccine provides 100% protection, and the shots may not be equally protective for everyone.

"There are certain people, including the elderly, people who are immunocompromised and people on dialysis, who really can't mount a good immune response," Parsonnet says. "They're always also going to be at risk. So every child getting vaccinated helps protect all those other people in the family that they may live with, or their neighbors."

Multi-generational living is common in Genoveva's community in the Bay Area. And her city, San Pablo, is a hot spot in Contra Costa County, where 1 out of 11 people have tested positive for the coronavirus. At the height of the pandemic, nearly 800 people tested positive in the county every day.

"Our neighborhood has three, four generations living in the same house," Genoveva says.

She says her recent booster shot allows her more peace of mind. Genoveva is looking forward to the day when her great-granddaughter and the rest of her family are finally vaccinated.

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COVID hit this family twice, but vaccines blunted reinfections : Shots - Health News - NPR