Category Archives: Caribbean

Grenada is hosting the inaugural Dive and Conservation Festival, which will take place between May 17 to 23.

This festival will highlight some of Grenadas many conservation efforts over a course of sevendays where attendees will have the opportunity to learn about Grenadas artificial and coral reef projects, participate in bird and turtle watching and lionfish hunting, volunteer for a beach clean-up session and engage with stakeholders during the Conservation Conversations which are open to the public daily.

Clarice Modeste-Curwen, Minister for Tourism, Civil Aviation, Climate resilience and the Environment stated: Our islands are a divers dream, with diverse marine life, resplendent reefs, impressive wreck sites, and the Worlds first Underwater Sculpture Park.

However, to maintain this marine paradise, we must recognise the impact of our actions on our environment and do our part to conserve our natural resources.

She continued, The GTA has recognised that sustainability is at the core of all our activity and indeed we have identified that maintaining our blue spaces and marine life is a pillar of what brand Grenada represents.

Participants interested in the Dive and Conservation festival can expect to immerse themselves in informative sessions and workshops led by local, regional and international environmental and conservation experts.

Topics will range from biodiversity and ecosystems to environmental education and research which will aid in building awareness, advocacy and capacity.

See the rest here:

Grenada hosts the inaugural Dive and Conservation Festival | Loop Caribbean News - Loop News Caribbean

A currently disorganized cluster of showers and storms over the southern Caribbean Sea continues to have some potential of eventually becoming a system before the official start of the 2022 hurricane season.

Its important to stress a named system in the Caribbean is not imminent, any development would likely not even begin until late this week or next and there is no agreement between forecast models on if something will develop (and where it would go if it were to form).

But, because it is now mid-May well need to pay attention to thunderstorm flare ups over the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean as they can sometimes trigger the start of tropical development.

The area were watching this week is north of Central America and northwest of the coast of South America. There is no organization with the activity noted on satellite at the time being, but a weather feature called the Central American Gyre may be what helps to form anything that may develop here over the next 10 days.

The Central American Gyre is a very broad circulation that forms near Central America that can help to organize thunderstorms over the water enough to kick off storm development.

Should the Central America Gyre help to spawn a system this month, it wouldnt be a novel event. Each year since 2015 a tropical system has developed in the Atlantic Ocean hurricane basin before the official start of hurricane season which begins on June 1st.

Some things well be watching over the next week will be water temperatures and wind shear.

At the moment, water temperatures are warm enough for organization, but theres a large amount of wind shear that tropical systems dont like in the upper parts of the atmosphere between Florida and the Caribbean (shown with the bright purple color in the map below).

This means that despite warm ocean temperatures, systems would have difficulty making a move toward Florida today. How the upper level winds change in the next week will be useful to monitor.

Another point well be keeping an eye on is what weather forecast models do with the system.

Though its true some models do develop a storm here, other models do not, and when there is such a giant range in forecast outcomes it offers little confidence on what will transpire.

As we monitor how the data changes, well look for trends and similarities and see if something clearer becomes present from the data.

Summary bottom line:

Whether or not what were looking at in the Caribbean becomes something, its time to brush up on your tropical weather knowledge. Read up with the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Guide here.

Read more from the original source:

Tracking the Tropics: Watching the Caribbean, but no systems to track for a while - NBC2 News

Working anywhere in the world is very popular now and thanks to private programmes and those offered by some countries, there is a wide variety of choices if you prefer not to do it alone.

Below are some Caribbean and international programmes you can consider.

CARIBBEAN

Cayman Islands Global Citizens Concierge Programme

The Global Citizen Concierge Program allows people who are employed outside of the Cayman Islands with the financial independence to live and work remotely in the Cayman Islands for up to two years.

See requirements here:

Curacao

The government of Curacao offers remote workers with Dutch or US citizenship the opportunity to stay and work on the island for a longer period.

See requirements here

Barbados Welcome Stamp Visa

This visa allows people to work remotely in Barbados for a maximum of 12 months. The visa is available to anyone who meets the visa requirements and whose work is location independent, whether individuals or families.

See requirements here

Montserrat Remote Work Visa

This visa is up for one year and is open to anyone employed in a foreign country, conducts business with a company registered in a foreign country and someone who provides freelance or consulting services to clients in foreign country.

For more requirements

Anguilla

Launched in August 2020 the Lose The Crowd Find Yourself. Work. Life. Bliss. programme allows digital nomads to live on Anguilla from three to twelve months while experiencing their remote work dream

For morerequirements

Aruba One Happy Workation

This is open to US nationals for a maximum of 90 days.

For more requirements

Work from Bermuda Certificate

This certificate is open to executives and students for up to one year

For more requirements

Dominica Work in Nature Visa

The Work in Nature (WIN) Extended Stay Visa programme provides individuals and families the opportunity to work remotely in Dominica for up to 18 months.

For more requirements

Bahamas Beats

This programme allows workers and students to stay for up to one year in The Bahamas.

For more requirements

Image: iStock

INTERNATIONAL

Remote Year

Remote Year offers programmes ranging in duration from one month to one year. Programmes can take you all over the world. Click here for more details.

Unsettled

Unsettled offers one to two week co-working retreats in places such as Bali, Tuscany, Cape Town and Tokyo

WiFi Tribe

This programme carefully curates its travelers for an experience called The Chapter. The aim is to help participants advance their careers while discovering adventure in between.

Selina

With over 145 destinations, Selina creates fun experiences with accommodation tailored to your pocket and co-working spaces

Behere

Through Behere, you can book accommodation, workspaces and fitness centres in exotic locations around the world.

Read more:

Remote Work programmes in the Caribbean and internationally | Loop Caribbean News - Loop News Caribbean

Caribbean all-inclusive brand Elite Island Resorts has partnered with reggae legend Causion on a major new musical tribute to the island of Antigua.

The song, Antigua Me Come From, is a common phrase of identity and heritage for Antiguans; a love letter to the island, its a message to travelers to forget their troubles, to come take a load off their shoulder and feel the energy when their feet touch the ground.

Its another major video for Causion, whose long career includes touring with Third World, Rita Marley and Freddie McGregor, among others.

Personally growing up inAntiguawas the greatest experience I can imagine. I grew up on the water in English Harbour, and most of my childhood was on the water, sailing and fishing, and the freedom to do that was phenomenal, he says. Antiguais a place I have loved from the bottom of my heart, and there is no place I would rather be. As a musician and writer, when you go toAntiguathe words keep coming, the artistry and creation keep coming because you find that place of peace.

The idea of the song and video, according to Elite Island Resorts Chairman Rob Barrett was to give the people ofAntigua and Barbudasomething that shares the beauty and spirit andAntiguawith the world for years to come.

This amazing collaboration between Elite Island Resorts and Causion captures the essenceAntiguaand is a project we can all be very proud of, Barrett said.

Elite Island Resorts has a portfolio of five hotels on the island of Antigua, including Hammock Cove; the Pineapple Beach Club; the Verandah Resort and Spa; the Galley Bay Resort and Spa; and the St Jamess Club and Villas.

Music has a way of touching us and bringing us closer to where we want to be. Exploring the concepts of happiness, and what fuels it, he compares the joy from acquiring material things with the lasting power of memories, Causion says. A lot of the things I experienced inAntiguawhen I was younger, those fond memories are still with me today. You cant buy that kind of happiness.

Covid has brought the rest of the world and theCaribbeaninto a frame of mind to open up their eyes and respect each other more. To appreciate each other and what we bring to the table, he says. We also appreciate that people are coming to our shores. Now more than ever, in this world when nothing can be assumed, we are learning to appreciate, respect, embrace, and welcome each other.

The song is especially poignant for the artist, in light of his recent, ongoing battle with cancer, one that sees him traveling monthly between Antigua and Florida.

Its a battle that has put his island home in a new light, he says. I go on hikes to experience the country in a way I didnt before. Its an enormous feeling, seeing it from a different perspective for the past two years, and I have found a new love for the country.

For more, visit Elite Island Resorts.

Original post:

The Caribbean's Newest Reggae Hit Is a Love Letter to Antigua - Caribbean Journal

Verna McGowan is reinventing herself once again. In a past lifetime, she worked at Levi Strauss following a degree in fashion buying and merchandising at the Fashion Institute of Technology; another career saw McGowan getting a clinical psychology degree from San Francisco State University and working with at-risk students. In her latest career, McGowan has become a chef, first cooking for expats in South Africa while she lived there for a few years, then opening a catering business after graduating from the California Culinary Academy and working as author Alice Walkers personal chef for seven years.

Now, McGowan will start her own kitchen and cook for the public, opening Calypso Rose Kitchen at Emeryvilles Public Market on June 30. Its the culmination of McGowans food experiences from growing up in New York with a Caribbean and Southern upbringing, to learning about Guayanese cuisine from her mother-in-law and Puerto Rican food from friends. McGowan calls her new restaurant an expression of the recipes that have been passed down to her over generations. Its everything that I love that has meant something to me in my personal life, because food is connected with memory, McGowan says. Food is the connection that lingers on, that reminds me of people that I love tremendously.

Calypso Rose Kitchens menu zigzags through those memories and serves almost as a biography of McGowan, with her longtime general manager and sous chef Mimi Garcia working alongside her. Diners can expect dishes like oxtail stew, based on the Guayanese pepperpot dish, which is traditionally served at Christmas and Easter. McGowans version is a mixture of beef, oxtail, and stew meat, cooked with cassareep, a spiced, molasses-like ingredient made from the cassava plant. Guyanese beef patties are also on the menu, learned from McGowans mother-in-law. Some Puerto Rican dishes will be available also, such as a sopa de pollo, arroz con pollo, black bean soup, and pernil, a dish featuring pork shoulder thats slowly roasted until the meat falls off the bone.

There will also be a shrimp and chicken curry with roti sourced from a family member in New York, and Jamaican brown stew chicken thats marinated overnight in a browning sauce, a dish that McGowan says give classic island vibes. Although there is a jerk chicken item on the menu, part of McGowans mission to show diners that theres tons of Caribbean islands and that not all Caribbean food is the same. In developing the menu, to me it was important that people have an experience of Caribbean cuisine outside of jerk chicken, McGowan says.

Food has always been a huge part of McGowans life, she says. Its really a heartfelt expression of gratitude and love to share, and then honoring those people that are no longer with us, she says. Calypso Rose Kitchen is the latest career for McGowan, but its one thats closest to her heart. What Ive learned in this lifetime is that dont tie yourself up in the numbers, she says. Do what moves your spirit; follow your heart and youll never, ever fail.

Calypso Rose Kitchen (5959 Shellmound St, Emeryville) debuts June 30.

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How Caribbean and Latin Home Cooking Inspired This East Bay Chef's Upcoming Debut Restaurant - Eater SF

It's incredible to see how much progress Royal Caribbean has made in less than a year with its restart plans, but there are still a handful of issues the cruise line is working through.

Royal Caribbean is on the brink of having the last ship in the fleet restart operations (Rhapsody of the Seas), which is an important milestone for a company that was decimated by a "black swan" event in the form of the global health crisis.

While the cruise experience has improved rapidly with higher guest satisfaction scores, more ships back in service, and rolled back Covid protocols, there are still a few notable issues that Royal Caribbean is tackling.

It's important to note that these issues are not just Royal Caribbean problems. Nearly every form of travel leisure has their fair share of challenges. The reason why I'm bringing these issues up is to help anyone with a cruise manage expectations properly.

There has been many bumps on the road to Royal Caribbean's restart, but they've been able to navigate them well, and it stands to reason these issues are likely temporary as well.

Here are the challenges Royal Caribbean has to tackle at the moment, which anyone with a cruise this summer should be aware of.

Covid isn't gone by any means, and that means there are still Covid cases on cruise ships.

To be fair, there's always been some level of Covid cases on any Royal Caribbean sailing, but Royal Caribbean's protocols have limited the spread to ensure it doesn't become a ship-wide problem.

Covid cases are going to be an ongoing problem for a while, just like every facet of life. Just like in society, we're learning to live with it, but that doesn't mean there won't be cases popping up onboard.

Based on reader feedback, it seems guests are reporting seeing or experiencing Covid cases on individual sailings and it's almost certainly a reflection of a general rise in Covid cases around the world right now.

YouTube vloggers Travel Spree unfortunately caught Covid and had to be isolated while on their Symphony of the Seas cruise.

RoyalCaribbeanBlog message board useranxiouscruiser shared their experience testing positive for Covid while onboard Serenade of the Seas, "it sucks but I knew the risk when I chose to cruise. I just wish it didn't happen to us."

According to theU.S. Centers for Disease Control and Preventions weekly review, there has been a week-on-week increase in the number of counties with high levels of COVID-19.As of May 11, 2022, the current 7-day moving average of daily new cases (84,778) increased 30.7% compared with the previous 7-day moving average (64,863).

In short, more Covid cases in society is going to likely translate to more Covid cases onboard cruise ships. Unlike on land, cruise ships at least have requirements and protocols that do their best to mitigate the spread of Covid.

What this all means is you should becognizant of the fact there are more Covid cases, and take whatever precautions you deem fit. Perhaps that's wearing a N95 mask while indoors, or changing shore excursion plans to prioritize outdoor tours.

Every company is dealing with not enough workers, and that includes cruise ships.

On some ships, certain venues or forms of entertainment are not yet open so that they can better utilize crew members. In other cases, there may simply not be enough crew members to manage every situation that can arise.

There's an interesting message board thread discussing the general issue on the Royal Caribbean Blog message boards.

While many guests are understanding of the general problems all business have in hiring, they also feel moving to full capacity with less than a full compliment of crew causes guest satisfaction problems, "I think we all understand the troubles of staffing right now, but Royal Caribbean should match their ships capacity with their staffing.," saidcarlosalonsor.

"I think Royal Caribbean just found it a bit harder to staff up than they expected to," smokeybanditopined. "For those who do want to return, lots of red tape to get them on board again. Then there are those who have found a happy life off a ship or those that are just hesitant to return for various reasons."

Royal Caribbean Blog readerRobert Joseph Dulo shared a similar issue with staffing shortages on Explorer of the Seas last week, "The staff and the ship could not handle the capacity with many service and food issues."

"I left them detailed survey responses and hope they look closely at them as my experience was similar to others that I talked to. I hope they make the appropriate changes or they will start to lose cruisers, especially me. They seemed to not be ready for higher capacity."

Even if Royal Caribbean could snap their fingers and hire everyone they need right now, there's still the issue of visa delays, quarantine rules in some countries, vaccine requirements, and more.

The good news is Royal Caribbean is indeed trying to hire as many new crew members as they can, with recruitment drives in countries around the world. It does not appear to be a problem the cruise line is not aware of by any means.

In the meantime, bring extra patience with you, along with sunscreen, a camera, and a good book.

Tangentially related to the first two issues, you may run into certain items not available onboard your cruise.

Primarily, we've seen this in the past in the form of certain brands of liquors not available. Remember the CocoCay-branded beer? That was an early victim of supply chain issues.

Just like staffing problems, this is not likely an issue that will go away overnight. In its first quarter 2022 earnings, Royal Caribbean Group said they're managingsupply chain challenges, mainly related to fuel and food costs.

In my experience, how much of an impact it has on your sailing will greatly depend on which brands of types of food and drink you prefer, as well as general demand onboard. Each sailing has a different assortment of guests onboard, and the ships are doing their best to supply accordingly.

After reading about these issues, what should your takeaway be for an upcoming sailing?

Certainly the problems Royal Caribbean is facing are the sort of things the company has to mitigate and address in order to improve, but if your cruise is coming up in the next few weeks, it's possible it could impact your cruise.

At a minimum, it's food for thought. Throughout the restart of cruise operations, there have been hurdles for passengers to navigate. So while today's problems are a concern, it's not like there haven't been things Royal Caribbean has overcome in the past year.

It may also be an opportunity to gauge how comfortable you are with embracing a certain level of flexibility. Nothing is perfect, including cruise ships, so if the prospect of your favorite liquor not being available, or a longer wait for drinks at bar truly irks you, then perhaps you should put off your cruise until the situation improves.

As cruise fans, we love this kind of a vacation and no one ever wants to be disappointed. It's why I think it's critical to be as honest and up-front with what others are seeing so we can all make the right decision to sail or not.

The sort of problems Royal Caribbean has are also being dealt with at plenty of other land-based travel destinations. So the grass is not greener necessarily elsewhere. But that doesn't mean a cruise right now is superb either.

An educated consumer tends to have a better experience overall, and this article is intended to ensure you are up-to-date with what's happening.

Continued here:

The top problems Royal Caribbean is facing as it returns to full capacity - Royal Caribbean Blog

Attachments

CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN: FOOD SECURITY

KEY FIGURES

12.7M PEOPLE IN 5 COUNTRIES IPC PHASE 3 (CRISIS) FOOD INSECURITY OR WORSE

According to the Global Network Against Food Crises 2022 Global Report on Food Crises, rising food prices, the COVID-19 pandemics economic effects, extreme weather and high insecurity drove nearly a million more people into Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua in 2021.

The increase from 11.8 million foodinsecure people in 2020 to 12.7 million in 2021 saw all five countries reach six-year highs, populations that had already been growing in Central America prior to the November 2020 impact of hurricanes Eta and Iota. The economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures lasted well into 2021, as the pandemic precipitated one of the regions worst recessions and exacerbated existing structural problems. Haitis situation was marked by violence as well as the August 7.2-magnitude earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace in the south. While there was a slight decrease in the number of people in Phase 3 from September 2021 thanks to improved food availability due to harvests, the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity increased after the impacts of the earthquake and tropical storm.

CENTRAL AMERICA: MIGRANTS & REFUGEES

24K IRREGULAR MIGRANT ENTRIES INTO HONDURAS FROM JANUARY TO APRIL 2022

HONDURAS

According to ECHO, Honduras recorded more than 24,000 irregular migrant entries between January and April 2022, mostly people from Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. The Danl and Trojes municipalities are seeing a daily average of more than 500 people seeking shelter. Needs identified include food and water access, basic hygiene and sanitation services, health and psychosocial support services, protection, restoring family links, information on migration procedures and access to National Migration Institute services.

PANAMA

Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF) reports an average of 1,500 monthly medical consultations from migrants in Darien on Panamas eastern border with Colombia, including responding to nearly 400 women victims of sexual assault between April 2021 to March 2022. The dangerous jungle, which saw 19,092 irregular crossings from January to April 2022 (a 66 per cent increase from the 11,487 reported in the same period in 2021), is rife with protection issues due to criminal groups that routinely assault migrants and subject women migrants to sexual violence, including rape.

Read more:

Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update (9 - 15 May 2022) As of 16 May 2022 - Haiti - ReliefWeb

An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) project has been launched to help the small island nations of the Caribbean handle radioactive material safely and securely.

The Regulatory Infrastructure Development Project (RIDP) kicked off with a four-day workshop in Vienna, with some participants joining online. It aims to establish or enhance national regulatory infrastructure for radiation safety and for the security of radioactive material. Government officials from fourteen countries in the region, all at different stages in the development of their nuclear regulatory infrastructure, had the opportunity to hold bilateral sessions with IAEA experts to assess their needs.

We are taking the use of nuclear technology to the next level, and it is important for us to enhance our regulatory infrastructure as we move forward, said Maxine Russell, Director General of the Hazardous Substances Regulatory Authority of Jamaica. As one of the countries with the most developed regulatory infrastructure in the region, Jamaica is supporting its neighbors under what is known as South-South cooperation. With the knowledge gained, we aim to continue sharing best practices with other experts in the region.

Participants included experts from Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and as well as Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname, which are not IAEA Member States.

The individualized approach of the project allows for flexibility both at the planning and the implementation phase, with IAEA experts adapting to address national priorities that could evolve along the way. RIDP has been designed to tackle and fix any shortcomings countries may have identified in their regulatory infrastructure, said Lydie Evrard, IAEA Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Nuclear Safety and Security. This mechanism adopts a flexible and agile open-ended approach.

Nuclear safety and security go hand in hand as the IAEA works to promote a framework to protect people, society and the environment from the harmful effects of ionizing radiation. In simple terms to distinguish the two, safety is about protecting you from accidental exposure to radiation whereas security is about protecting the radioactive source from being used for malicious intent. Nuclear safety and security are two sides of the same coin, Evrard said. RIDP is tailor-made to address both angles so that they complement each other in an integrated manner.

For countries starting out, they will receive support in the establishment of a national policy, a national inventory of radiation sources, the development of regulations and guides, supported by related training. Assistance to countries which are further ahead in their infrastructure development will focus on the enhancement of these areas and further strengthen their organization. The project also complements on-going work under the IAEAs Technical Cooperation program enhancing regulatory infrastructure for radiation safety in the region.

The workshop concluded with a draft workplan that will guide the participant countries in their next steps.

The governments of Canada, France, Spain and the United States have provided financial support to the overall project. The RIDP focusing on the Caribbean region is financed by the United States, which delivered its support through the Office of Nonproliferation and Disarmament Fund (ISN/NDF) U.S. Department of State.

Read more at IAEA

More:

IAEA Helping Caribbean Nations With Nuclear Safety and Security - HS Today - HSToday

If you're going on a Royal Caribbean cruise with close friends or family, you might want to link your reservations together.

Linking reservations is an optional feature to make dining arrangements a little bit easier.

Here's a look at the why and how of linking reservations on a Royal Caribbean cruise.

In short, linking reservations together means you can more easily facilitate dining reservations, especially in the main dining room.

Every stateroom has a reservation number, and there is no inherit way for Royal Caribbean to know guests staying in one cabin want to dine with guests in another cabin. This is especially true of families that split up among different cabins.

Royal Caribbean makes cruising fun for families and groups of all sizes, but that usually means there are multiple reservations involved. Since youre traveling together, it makes sense that you would want to eat together in the dining room and plan excursions together.

Or maybe you have someone really generous in your group who is paying for your drink package, or wants to surprise you with a spa day!

In addition, linking reservations allows for an easier time of booking entertainment since you won't have to look up the reservations later.

It's an extra step that makes planning other aspects of the cruise a little bit easier when your travelling party is spread across more than one cabin.

Before you can link a reservation with yours, you will need some basic information about each person's reservation:

The most common issue for anyone that wants to link reservations is finding their reservation number.

There are a few ways to find your reservation number, so it's just a matter of whatever is easier for you.

You can find that by logging into your Royal Caribbean account. I find that it is easiest to do this on an actual computer, rather than the mobile app.

After logging in, the reservation number should be listed with every cruise you have booked.

Other ways to get the reservation number include:

Once you're ready, you can link reservations together in one of three ways:

In the case of a travel agent or going through Royal Caribbean, this requires you to simply contact either one to make it happen.

If you want to do this on your own, you and them can log onto the Royal Caribbean website.

Just below your reservation information, you should see a button that says Have a Reservation? Click the blue Add a Cruise button.

This will take you to the Link A Cruise page. It will ask you for the Surname (Last Name) of the person you want to link, their date of birth, and their reservation number. Click Continue.

From there, it should locate their reservation and give you the option to link their reservation with your cruise!

Now you are all set! Your Main Dining Room table reservations will be set together. Youll also have access to each other so that you can pay for each others excursions and other Cruise Planner items.

For example, my husband and I are traveling with his sister in November, and we are trading off paying for some of the fun things we are planning on board. Linking our reservations has made that super easy! Have fun and get to planning!

Read more here:

How to link Royal Caribbean cruise reservations together - Royal Caribbean Blog

Weeks before the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season's official start, a low-pressure system may bring flooding rain to Central America, but its chances of spawning the first tropical depression or storm in the Caribbean Sea are very low for now.

We understand if this might catch you a little off guard; It's only May. But there's a scenario setting up that can sometimes lead to tropical development.

First, a large, broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days over Central America, something meteorologists refer to as a Central American gyre, or CAG.

These CAGs most often form from May through June and again in October through November, but can occur at any time over the next six months.

These CAGs can spawn or influence tropical storms in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or eastern Pacific Ocean.

Two years ago, one such CAG also formed in late May.

It pushed eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda inland into Guatemala, then steered its remnant into the Bay of Campeche, where Tropical Storm Cristobal soon formed. The CAG forced Cristobal to make a weird loop over southeast Mexico before Cristobal finally turned north toward a Gulf Coast landfall on June 7, 2020.

Roughly 50 percent of CAGs have a tropical cyclone associated with them, Philippe Papin, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center and expert on CAGs, previously told weather.com.

"When a tropical cyclone does occur, it tends to form on the eastern side of the [gyre] and rotates counterclockwise around the larger circulation," said Papin.

That's what one prominent computer forecast model the Global Forecast System (GFS) has been suggesting could happen.

While that sounds a bit unsettling, there are potential problems with that model's forecast.

First, while the GFS model can detect tropical storm formations in the western Caribbean Sea, it also has a high false alarm rate. That means this particular model will often forecast tropical development that doesn't end up happening.

Other forecast models, such as one from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), suggest the CAG could be centered farther west over Central America or the eastern Pacific Ocean, making development chances higher in the eastern Pacific Ocean than over the Caribbean Sea.

Even in the small chance a tropical depression forms in the Caribbean Sea, it faces two other obstacles.

First, wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea is strong, as you'd expect in May. This changing wind speed and direction with height typically rips apart tropical disturbances trying to organize.

Current Wind Shear

Secondly, there's a push of air originating from the Sahara Desert headed through the Caribbean Sea over the next few days.

Known as a Saharan Air Layer (SAL), these westward surges of dry, stable, dust-laden air suppress thunderstorms, the building blocks needed to form a tropical depression. Some of this air may be in place over the western Caribbean Sea into the weekend.

Water Vapor Satellite Image

The bottom line is that for now, we're not concerned in this case about a tropical depression or storm forming in the Caribbean Sea in this setup.

As the large low sits over or near Central America, it could wrap deep moisture into areas from southeast Mexico to Panama into next week.

Some areas could pick up over 6 inches of rain, particularly over windward mountainous terrain.

That could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall Potential

CAGs have been notorious flash flood producers, often with deadly results.

The combination of Amanda, Cristobal and the CAG over nine days dumped up to 34 inches of rain in southeast Mexico, 42 inches in El Salvador and 26 inches in Guatemala. Forty-three deaths were attributed to the flooding or landslides in Central America.

In early October 2017, a CAG spawned Hurricane Nate, which made a Category 1 landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

But the early stage of Nate as a tropical depression and storm, combined with the CAG, soaked Central America. Some parts of Costa Rica picked up 10 to 19 inches of rain.

Flooding and mudslides killed 44 people and destroyed thousands of homes, particularly in Costa Rica and Nicaragua, according to the National Hurricane Center's final report.

Flooding is seen in San Jose, Costa Rica, on Thursday, October 5, 2017, as Tropical Storm Nate brings dangerous torrential rains to the area.

In 2005, Hurricane Stan dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico, but its remnant spin became part of a larger gyre that triggered heavy rainfall over Central America.

While Stan's direct circulation resulted in about 80 deaths, severe flash flooding and mudslides from the gyre claimed an estimated 1,000 to 2,000 lives across Central America, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The Weather Companys primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

See original here:

Central American Gyre Could Trigger Dangerous Flooding; Could It Also Spawn Tropical Development? | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather...