Ian could be a classic example of the fact that a hurricane's category doesn't tell you everything about all of its potential impacts.
Ian should become a strong hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. But you may have noticed from the forecast path graphic that Ian's winds are then expected to diminish as it nears the Gulf Coast.
Given that, will Ian be that big of a deal once it reaches the Gulf Coast?
Yes, and there are important reasons why Ian will be dangerous regardless of what category it is at landfall.
Projected Path And Latest Storm Information
You're probably at least somewhat familiar with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and its ubiquitous "Category 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5" descriptors.
This scale was developed in the 1970s and is strictly based on a storm's maximum sustained winds.
That's important for the wind damage potential of a hurricane, but no single parameter can encapsulate all the threats of a storm.
Here are two other important factors that will also play a big role in Ian's final impact on the U.S..
A hurricane's category doesn't tell you how big it is, or in other words, how large its wind circulation extends. That's important to determine the magnitude and extent of its impacts.
Ian's size will also increase by the time it's in the Gulf of Mexico. This typically happens in hurricanes and tropical storms as they move farther north.
And here's the key: Ian will maintain a large circulation even if it loses some wind intensity before landfall.
A larger storm blowing over a greater area of the ocean over the longest time will generate the highest storm surge if all other factors are equal.
That means Ian's storm surge will likely be dangerous, regardless of how strong its winds are at landfall, or what category of a hurricane it is.
Recent history has provided several examples.
Winds in 2008's Hurricane Ike were Category 2 at landfall along the upper Texas coast after dropping from Category 4 levels north of the Caribbean Sea.
However, its giant size in the Gulf of Mexico generated a 15 to 20 foot storm surge that wiped out most structures on Texas' Bolivar Peninsula.
A home is left standing among debris from Hurricane Ike Sept. 14, 2008, in Gilchrist, Texas.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 weakened to a Category 3 at landfall, but its giant size in the Gulf of Mexico generated a record U.S. storm surge of 28 feet along the Mississippi coast.
Sandy in 2012 had tropical-storm-force winds 1,000 miles wide the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record since at least 1988 before it produced a record storm surge along parts of the New Jersey, New York and Connecticut coasts.
Hurricane Sandy's tropical-storm-force (light orange) and hurricane-force (brown) wind fields at 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 28, 2012.
So how can you tell if the size of a current tropical storm or hurricane is large?
Meteorologists including those at the NHC will often note in a forecast whether a storm is large or small. In cases like that, you'll often see graphics of the wind field, such as for Hurricane Irma in 2017 below.
Put simply, the larger the circles in graphics like that below, the larger the storm.
Example of a hurricane wind field graphic, from Hurricane Irma in 2017.
If a large hurricane or tropical storm is headed for landfall, expect its storm surge to be higher and, in general, its impacts to be more widespread.
A storm's forward speed also matters.
You can find out how fast the storm is moving in our graphics, such as in the example below from Hurricane Isaias in 2020. This storm motion is updated with each advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
A storm's forward speed depends on the large-scale winds surrounding it that act as its steering wheel.
In Ian's case, we expect it to slow down somewhat around the time of its landfall.
If a hurricane is out to sea and moving slower, there's more preparation time for areas potentially threatened by the storm.
But when a storm slows down near or over land, its impacts are not only prolonged, but also greatly amplified.
In 2019, Hurricane Dorian exploded into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached the northwestern Bahamas. Then the winds pushing the hurricane forward collapsed.
Dorian's eyewall lashed the northwestern Bahamas for an unfathomable 52 straight hours while at Category 4 or 5 intensity.
The intense winds drove a storm surge of up to 28 feet on Grand Bahama Island, according to the Bahamas Department of Meteorology (BDOM). At least 74 residents were killed in the Bahamas, with damage estimated at $3.4 billion, according to the BDOM.
Then there's a storm's rainfall.
How much rain a storm produces has little or nothing to do with the storm's wind intensity, but rather how fast it moves.
In 2017, Hurricane Harvey slammed into Texas at Category 4 intensity, then took an agonizingly slow meander near the Texas coast for four days.
Up to 60 inches of rain fell along the upper Texas coast, triggering catastrophic flooding. Harvey remains the nation's second-costliest hurricane or tropical storm ($143.8 billion in 2022 dollars) behind only Katrina.
Besides checking for the storm's current forward speed in a graphic, the forecast path graphic could also hint at a stalling storm ahead.
When it no longer resembles a cone, but rather takes on the appearance of a circle, or there's little separation of forecast points, it suggests the storm is expected to slow down or stall. You should expect prolonged impacts from heavy rain, storm surge and winds, as the last two examples illustrated.
The forecast "cone," or sphere, of the center of Hurricane Harvey from the National Hurricane Center issued Aug. 24, 2017. Harvey's forecast stall caused the typical "cone" shape of this path to resemble a circle.
A hurricane is much more than its "category" or even the forecast path of its center.
Other key factors, including how large it is and how fast it moves will determine the ultimate impact from Ian, and storms in the future.
The Weather Companys primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
See the rest here:
Hurricane Ian A Gulf Coast Danger, Regardless Of Its 'Category' Strength - The Weather Channel
- Mixed fortunes for USA and France in 4x400m heats at WRE Bahamas 24 | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Olympic qualification the main goal for global stars in Nassau | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Athletics Inside Track Podcast back in The Bahamas | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- How to watch Wayde van Niekerk live on 4-5 May at the World Athletics Relays 2024 in Nassau, Bahamas - Olympics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- JJ McCarthy And His Viral Fiance Are Currently Dominating The Bahamas - Outkick - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Relays in Bahamas includes Bailey, Peoples, and Holmes - Razorbacks Arkansas - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Athletics Relays Bahamas 24: Preview, schedule, track stars to watch and how to follow the event live - Olympics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- What To Watch At The 2024 World Relays In Nassau, Bahamas - CITIUS Mag - Citius Mag - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- WRE Bahamas 24 preview: Netherlands and USA seek more 4x400m success | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- EVERYTHING READY FOR THE BAHAMAS 2024 WORLD ATHLETICS RELAY - Panam Sports - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Former FTX Executive Ryan Salame Agrees to Forfeit $5.9 Million Bahamas House in Plea Agreement - Blockchain.News - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- USA's Paris Olympics Tickets Almost Snatched Away From Men's 4x400m Team After Suffering DQ at Bahamas Relays - EssentiallySports - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Airline debuts service between PBIA and Abaco, Bahamas - WPTV News Channel 5 West Palm - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Is Sha'Carri Richardson Running at World Athletics Relays Bahamas 24? Everything We Know about Team USA's Lineup - EssentiallySports - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Canadian men's 4x100 relay team races to silver in World Athletic Relays in Bahamas - CBC.ca - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Relays make a triumphant return to the Bahamas - Trackalerts.com, track and field news website - Trackalerts - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Margaritaville Bahamas cruise offers trips to Key West fall of 2024 - Palm Beach Post - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Lewis, Charlton and Hughes join Inside Track Podcast | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Former FTX Executive to Give Up Bahamas Property Worth $5.9 Million - The Tech Report - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- The Most Expensive Home in The Bahamas Just Sold for a Record $40 Million - Robb Report - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Bahamas: Contest for leadership of opposition party heats up | Loop Caribbean News - Loop News Caribbean - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Disney Cruise Line details the Junkanoo theme at new Bahamas destination - Travel Weekly - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- WRE Bahamas 24 preview: rivalries renewed in women's 4x100m | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Bahamas Mixed Relay squad punches ticket to Paris Olympics | Loop Caribbean News - Loop News Caribbean - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Relays start today in Bahamas | Sports - Jamaica Gleaner - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Relays are happening this weekend in the Bahamas - Athletics Illustrated - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- World Athletics Relays Bahamas 24 set to showcase star-studded cast ahead of Paris Olympics - caribbeannationalweekly.com - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- J.J. McCarthy, Fiancee Enjoying Vacation In The Bahamas - The Spun - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- "GROSS OVERSIGHT:" BAAAs apologizes for naming of "Haiti-Bahamas All-Star team" - EyeWitness News - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- WRE Bahamas 24 preview: clash of global title-winning teams in men's 4x100m | News | Bahamas 24 - World Athletics - May 6th, 2024 [May 6th, 2024]
- Cruise bound for Bahamas rerouted to Boston because of storm - CBS Boston - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Cruise ship originally headed for Bahamas to stop in Portland due to storm - NewsCenterMaine.com WCSH-WLBZ - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Inside Lionel Richie's Star-Studded 'Dancing on the Sand' Weekend In the Bahamas - PEOPLE - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- 7 Top-Rated Bahamas All-Inclusive Resorts You Should Book - TheTravel - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- December Cruise To Bahamas Rerouted To Canada - Jalopnik - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Alaska Airlines starts flying to the Bahamas from Seattle and Los Angeles - The Points Guy - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- You Can Now Fly Nonstop From Los Angeles to Nassau, The Bahamas - Caribbean Journal - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- THE BAHAMAS AND ALASKA AIRLINES CELEBRATE FIRST-EVER NONSTOP ROUTES CONNECTING WEST ... - Yahoo Finance - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Cruise ship originally en route to Bahamas docks in Boston due to weather - CBS Boston - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Cruise Ship Originally En Route To Bahamas Docks In Boston Due To Weather - Patch - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Alaska Airlines Launches First-Ever Routes to Guatemala and the Bahamas - Business Traveler USA - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Kickin' It With Q: Cowgirls in the Bahamas (E.5) - Oklahoma State Athletics - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Atlantis Paradise Island Bahamas hotel resort review - The Week - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- A Black Girl's Guide To Celebrating Junkanoo In Bahamas - Refinery29 - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- The Bahamas and Alaska Airlines Celebrate First-Ever Nonstop Routes - eTurboNews | eTN - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Live from AMERICANAFEST 2023: Brennen Leigh & Bahamas : World Cafe Words and Music Podcast - NPR - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- World Series of Poker Paradise part of growing sports scene in Bahamas - Fox News - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- TCI young men performing well at Blazer Elite Sports Academy in The Bahamas - Turks and Caicos Sun - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Royal Caribbean Closes In on New Resort in Freeport, Bahamas - Cruise Hive - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Bahamas: Spilligate'23 concert featuring Burna Boy postponed - St Vincent Times - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Snaresbrook Manor is a Luxury Oasis in Governor's Harbour Bahamas - stupidDOPE.com - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- KU falls to Bahamas in rematch, 87-81 - KUsports - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Lindsay Shiver's alleged Bahamas lover downplays plot to kill husband - New York Post - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- 5 Reasons To Visit This Lesser-Known Island In The Bahamas - Travel Off Path - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Ohio or the Bahamas? This kayaking paradise has crystal clear water - 614NOW - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Eric Gordon to reportedly represent Team Bahamas - Eurohoops - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Sebastian Walcott Is the Rangers'and the Bahamas'Future - D Magazine - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- These Are The 10 Best Things To Do On Grand Bahama Island - TheTravel - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- WHAT'S NEW IN THE BAHAMAS IN AUGUST 2023 - PR Newswire - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Deandre Ayton, Kai Jones to rep The Bahamas at Olympic qualifiers ... - Loop News Caribbean - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- Reliving the Legend: Michael Jordan's Bahamas Pick-Up Trash-Talk ... - Landon Buford - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- For Mayor Adams, Any Day Has the Makings of Flag Day - The New York Times - August 8th, 2023 [August 8th, 2023]
- MAKING HISTORY: 80-member team named for the CARIFTA Games - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Bahamas geography, maps, climate, environment and terrain from Bahamas ... - March 24th, 2023 [March 24th, 2023]
- Bahamas | Culture, Facts & Travel | - CountryReports - March 24th, 2023 [March 24th, 2023]
- Bahamas government structure and political parties. - CountryReports - March 24th, 2023 [March 24th, 2023]
- Is Bahamas a poor country? | - CountryReports - March 24th, 2023 [March 24th, 2023]
- Bahamas Population and Demographics from Bahamas | - CountryReports - March 24th, 2023 [March 24th, 2023]
- Bahamas interception of sea-borne Cuban migrants jumps in 2022 - January 17th, 2023 [January 17th, 2023]
- Bahamas national football team - Wikipedia - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- LeBron James Sipped Champagne and Vodka All Night Alongside Katy Perry in Crazy Bahamas Party in 2010 - EssentiallySports - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Hidden Worlds and The Islands of The Bahamas Bringing Awareness to Ocean Conservation - South Florida Caribbean News - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- 'Smoking a big spliff in the Bahamas': Nick's 10-year plan, and why his 'secret weapon' has him high on life - The Roar - December 23rd, 2022 [December 23rd, 2022]
- SBF's parents visited Bahamas prison where he's in custody - Business Insider - December 18th, 2022 [December 18th, 2022]
- Alex Rodriguez and Jaclyn Cordeiro share Instagram video of their stunning private vacation in the Northeastern Bahamas - Sportskeeda - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- @realGeorgeHotz More Than Just a Polycule in the Bahamas, That's for Sure! - Latest Tweet by Elon Musk - LatestLY - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- Bahamas' Attorney General Defends Country's Regulatory Regime Amid FTX 'Debacle' - CoinDesk - November 30th, 2022 [November 30th, 2022]
- Dayton regroups with two home games this week after 0-3 finish in Bahamas - Dayton Daily News - November 30th, 2022 [November 30th, 2022]
- The Bahamas' Club Med Columbus Set To Reopen This Month - TravelPulse - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- UH, U of the Bahamas partner in island sustainability, disaster risk reduction | University of Hawaii System News - University of Hawaii - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]