Monthly Archives: November 2023

Author: William J Jones and Douglas L Rhein, Mahidol University International College

The era of Thailands colour-coded politics ended with Thaksin Shinawatras triumphant return. Under the shifting landscape of Thailands political system, this new chapter in Thai politics will be one of political contest between reform and maintaining the status quo.

In the May 2023 Thai general election, the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first with 151 seats out of 500 and garnered over 14 million votes. Yet, its bid for the Premiership was blocked due to the presence of 250 military-appointed senators.

The MFP won seats in all regions, taking the entire province of Phuket in the South and nearly all seats in Bangkok. The Pheu Thai Party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra fell short of achieving its expected landslide victory, coming second with nearly 11 million votes.

Thailands six largest conservative parties collectively won 182 seats with 16 million votes. The provincial party Bhumjaithai took the lead with approximately five million votes. This starkly contrasts with the 2019 election, where Palang Pracharath received the largest number of votes, around 8.4 million, and the conservative coalition collectively accumulated approximately 22 million votes.

Most striking is the collapse of support for Thailands longstanding conservative elite parties that have ruled for almost a decade. The decline in support for conservative parties in Thailand is most visible in the drop in votes for the Democrat Party. In 2011, they captured 34 per cent of the vote, amassing 11 million votes prior to the coup in 2014. Their performance in 2023 significantly deteriorated, garnering only 2 million votes and winning 25 seats.

This political transition is due to the near collapse of Thailands oldest establishment party, historic voter turnout for the progressive MFP and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatras return to Thailand after 15 years.

With the near implosion of the Democrat Party coupled with the diminishing influence of former prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha and former deputy prime minister General Prawit Wongsuwon, the Thai Raksa Chart and Palang Pracharath parties may fragment by the next election.

As over half of the 75 members of parliament (MPs) from these parties originally defected from Pheu Thai, they may return home under Thaksin and Pheu Thais patronage. Rumours indicate that during parliamentary voting, a benefactor injected significant funds for these partys MPs, influencing their vote against the party leader and towards the new Pheu Thai Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin.

The other major group of MPs are former Democrat defectors from Thailands South, who will likely align themselves with Bhumjaitai and Anutin in the next election. With Prayut and Prawit fading from power, no powerful financial supporter has enough resources to keep this many MPs within their fold.

Pheu Thai will likely assume its natural place on the Thai political spectrum as a significant centre-right force alongside Bhumjaitai, a strong provincial right-leaning party. The Democrats may survive but are essentially a memory.

An ironic and unintended outcome is that the greatest benefactor of Thai elite post-election activities will likely be the MFP.

The MFP will establish a strong position in the opposition, where they have been extremely effective over the previous four years. They have succeeded by transforming previously socio-economic issues into political issues. Comparing the MFPs previous four years in opposition to the Democrats, the contrast is striking. The MFP managed to push controversial issues further than the Democrats managed to in 40 years. This is evident from the MFPs submission of numerous proposed laws upon opening the parliamentary session.

The MFP will continue mainstreaming same-sex marriage, ending military conscription, ending liquor monopolies, exposing government corruption and addressing Chinese mafia operations in Thailand.

The MFP will likely receive abundant ammunition for targeting the government over corruption, cronyism and failed election promises. This will provide numerous opportunities to highlight the MFPs core goals of demilitarisation, reducing monopolies and promoting decentralisation. The resulting media spotlight will likely benefit the MFP, strengthening its role as the opposition, garnering greater social support and broadening its voter base. This base will be reinforced by additional defectors from Pheu Thai who recognise that their party no longer represents the rural masses.

Without adjusting their stance on key electoral policies that endanger elite interests, the military, judiciary and existing institutional mechanisms will persist in removing influential obstacles. To maintain political influence, the MFP must develop a broad base of supporters across urban and rural constituencies, who can step up in elections or parliament when their predecessors are incarcerated. The MFP cannot risk becoming a party reliant on personalities. It must remain a party of values with a clear policy platform and a willingness to face challenges.

While the colour-coded politics frequently pitted Bangkok elites against rural forces, the new battleground in the Thai political sphere centres on reform versus the status quo. This is reflected in MFPs refusal to adjust its stance regarding its reform agenda and its readiness for further conflict. With rising personal and public debt and social discontent regarding existing corruption, the next election appears to be the MFPs to lose.

William J Jones is Assistant Professor at Mahidol University International College.

Douglas Lee Rhein is Associate Professor at Mahidol University International College.

Link:

Thailands tectonic political shift - East Asia Forum

Alec Tang is Partner - Sustainable Value at KPMG New Zealand.

OPINION:

September saw the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD) launch its final recommendations for nature-related risk management and disclosure, a significant milestone in the redefinition of business role and responsibilities in addressing our global nature and biodiversity crisis.

Much like the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations on which they were modelled, the TNFD recommendations send a strong signal about investors growing interest in broader, pre-financial impacts, dependencies and outcomes.

The TCFD recommendations sparked the escalation of climate risks and opportunities up on the business and boardroom agendas and instigated climate-related disclosure regimes such as our own mandatory requirements. It doesnt take much imagination to see where the TNFD recommendations will likely lead.

However, whilst the launch of the TNFD recommendations come at the end of a lengthy development process, we remain early in the adoption and implementation journey.

This affords us an important opportunity to think carefully about our local response to the recommendations, and the lessons we can and must draw from both the strengths and flaws of our climate response as we face up to what is a fundamentally more complex, localised, nuanced issue.

An opportunity that we must proactively seize, given the building global momentum towards a shift in the relationship between business, nature and biodiversity, and the impacts of this on our access to these global markets, even as our own climate response changes tack with a new Government.

At the core of this response must be recognition of the inherent connection between nature and climate, and the imperative to integrate our response to both issues.

The similarity of approach being used to drive business action across climate and nature is not a coincidence. The two issues go hand-in-hand, with the climate challenge we see today being simply a visible expression of what has become a largely extractive relationship with nature.

We have externalised the impacts of production, development and commercial activity in our myopic pursuit of growth-at-all-costs, and the environment be that our climate, or the wider natural and ecological systems that have created a safe operating space for humanity, a term coined by the architects of the Planetary Boundaries concept has borne the brunt of this.

We have forgotten that the natural systems we are reliant on not just for goods, products and services, but also for clean air, water, mental and physical sustenance have finite limits and are all-too-easily degraded from their functioning states.

These natural systems have, unfortunately, also suffered from an inherent ability to flex and adapt, such that the impacts of their degradation have been somewhat invisible until they hit tipping points of collapse, which we are now increasingly seeing.

With all this in mind, exploring and redefining our relationship with nature is not just another corporate sustainability issue for businesses to address, but rather a natural and necessary extension of our climate response.

A climate response that doesnt seek to shift this extractive relationship with nature, doesnt seek to integrate externalities into our economic and capital allocation structures, and addresses the wider implications of our consumptive economy is really only a partial response, and a very surficial one at that.

We cannot hope to solve these interconnected issues in isolation.

It is time to think more broadly and substantively about how we respond to the systemic issues that sit at the core of both.

The good news is that an integrated response to climate and nature also presents significant opportunities, particularly within an Aotearoa New Zealand context.

According to the World Economic Forum, more than half of global GDP, an estimated US$44 trillion of economic value is generated in industries moderately or highly dependent on nature.

In NZ, the picture is even more stark, with the Sustainable Business Council noting that 13 of our top 20 export commodities, constituting more than 70 per cent of the countrys entire export earnings, is dependent on natural capital.

We also have a rebounding visitor economy heavily focused on nature-based experiences.

Shifting our relationship with nature to one in which we better understand these dependencies and nurture operating models that dont just seek to minimise impacts, but that seek to regenerate our degraded nature resources, is critical to creating a more resilient and sustainability economy.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Frank Elderson, Executive Board Member at the European Central Bank, said: Destroy nature and you destroy the economy

This is not some kind of a flower power, tree-hugging exercise. This is core economics.

This said, looking just at the reliance of our GDP on natural systems only tells part of the story as any GDP-focused story does, more often than not.

A recent study noted that the ecosystem services associated with the Hauraki Gulf have an estimated total economic value of $5.14 billion per year, of which only $1.75b is explicitly measured in GDP and $3.39b are values such as avoided costs and expressions of public preference for activities like recreation in water of suitable quality.

Lets also not forget that the energy system which drives all aspects of our socio-economic activity is fundamentally dependent on natural resources, be they hydro, wind, solar, geothermal or fossil fuel deposits.

In myriad contexts, we see that a nature-focused approach can deliver both impact reduction and resilience-building for both individuals and organisations, as well as to society at large.

In an urban context, we have seen that green infrastructure solutions and investments in green space, can not only regenerate local biodiversity, but can also significantly reduce the impacts of extreme weather events whilst also creating places for community building and spaces for individuals to restore mental and physical wellbeing.

In a business context, a nature-lens requires the purposeful interrogation of value chain impacts and dependencies, given the broad and location-specific interactions of material sources and natural resources with operations, suppliers and customers. The opportunity to better understand and then maximise real value creation, whilst also minimising risks and value erosion is clear, and a key reason for the significant investor interest in this domain.

The nature momentum is building even beyond the TNFD recommendations, we see initiatives globally and locally placing an increasing focus on nature.

From the European Corporate Sustainability Reporting Direction to our own National Policy Statement on Indigenous Biodiversity and proposed biodiversity credit system.

Importantly, the increase in scale and depth of sustainability disclosure requirements to access key markets, and the growing scrutiny being placed by key customers on supply chain impacts and resilience, is a trend that will only grow with time.

But we must remember that whilst leading with a disclosure lens helps capture business attention, disclosures will only drive a response sufficient to meet the scale of the challenge we face if they lead to tangible transformations that tackle the root causes of our risk exposures.

Business-as-usual with fewer impacts is no longer sufficient if it ever As the Financial Markets Authority noted in its recent information sheet on scenario analysis for climate-related disclosures: if your scenario analysis doesnt lead you to question BAU (business as usual), then you probably havent done it correctly.

For Aotearoa New Zealand, there is another important consideration. The opportunity and imperative is that any response to our nature and biodiversity crisis should be rooted within a Mori worldview, as it is likely incomplete without this insight. It has been acknowledged that a key limitation of the TNFD is its belated engagement with indigenous world views.

It is important that our response in Aotearoa New Zealand doesnt follow the same path with Mori values as a bolt-on.

The response here needs to take the over-arching objectives of the TNFD and rebuild them with a base inclusive of Mori knowledge and values.

Getting this right isnt simply about doing the right thing from a cultural standpoint.

Getting this right presents an opportunity for Aotearoa New Zealand to lead the world in delivering a more holistic, integrated and systems-redefining response to both nature and climate.

Alec Tang is Partner Sustainable Value at KPMG New Zealand

As a Chartered Environmentalist and Fellow of the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment, Alec Tang has focused his career on addressing the breadth of sustainability challenges and opportunities that are increasingly shaping our communities, society and economy.

This has included a range of leaderships positions in academia, business and the public sector, alongside an active involvement in professional institutions, industry associations and networking groups. His work has ranged from the development of high-level regional strategies on climate change, liveability and wellbeing, incorporating broad stakeholder and community engagement, through to the design of specific delivery programmes and the create of impact measures to gauge their success.

KPMG New Zealand is an advertising sponsor of the Heralds Sustainable Business and Finance report.

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Our climate and nature response: the imperative and opportunity - New Zealand Herald

A security team in Marsabit has launched a manhunt for bandits who killed a police officer and critically injured another in a highway ambush in the Malgis area on the Marsabit-Isiolo Highway Thursday evening.

Marsabit County Commissioner Norbert Komora said the officer succumbed to gunshot wounds sustained following a bandit attack while escorting a Nairobi-bound truck loaded with livestock.

We have dispatched a security team to pursue the bandits who were armed with rifles, Mr Komora said.

The bandits waylaid the truck ferrying 25 head of cattle from Moyale to Nairobi and sprayed the drivers cabin with bullets killing the officer who was in the passenger seat and left his colleague and the driver nursing injury.

The survivors are being attended to at Laisamis Sub-county Hospital while the body of the slain officer was moved to Marsabit County Referral Hospital mortuary.

The county commissioner who doubles as county security and intelligence committee chairperson confirmed that the bandits made away with the two rifles that were in the security officers hands.

A team of regular, rapid deployment and anti-stock theft units has been detailed to comb the area in pursuit of the highwaymen and ensure the guns and ammunition are recovered.

Mr Komora urged to local communities to volunteer any information that could lead to the apprehension of the killers.

This attack came after a long period since Rendille and Samburu community elders counties convened a meeting in January 2023 to invoke a curse on highway banditry.

The invocation known as Faallo among the Rendille or Ldeket among the Samburu brought together politicians, provincial administrators, and security agencies from the two counties.

Speaking during the ritual, Samburu East Peace chairperson Salim Leseshore explained that such invocation is only made as a last resort to deter criminals failing to heed the counsel of traditional elders.

Whoever defied such invocations is bound not to know peace in their lifetime.

The decision was arrived at after a delegation of elders and leaders from Marsabit met their Samburu counterparts at Ndoyo Wasi on January 1, 2023 to find a lasting solution to the highway banditry and cattle rustling that had choked socio-economic development along the Samburu-Marsabit borders.

Leseshore added that the Isiolo-Moyale highway as a crucial component of the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor was intended to benefit the locals economically while offering an optimal transport solution to Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan. However, the bandit menace has made transportation along the highway a risky proposition.

Similar concerns were raised by Marsabit South Peace chairperson Peter Galworsi who lamented the collapse of Merille Livestock Market, a mega project funded by the European Union, USAID, and the Kenya government due to rampant cattle rustling and highway banditry.

The project was intended to secure the regions pastoralists livelihoods by commercialising the enterprise but due to fear of bandit attacks, livestock traders no longer went to the market.

Bandits often waylay vehicles ferrying goods or livestock and mostly target those that are not accompanied by a security escort.

Both Sub-County Deputy County Commissioner Pius Murugu and his Laisamis counterpart Langat Bosek said they will work with the local communities to end criminality and reassured travellers of adequate security patrols to monitor areas considered hotspots.

Continued here:

Police in Marsabit launch manhunt killers of security officer - Nation

South Africans brace yourself for the next three years! Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) last Wednesday, like his president a few days earlier, invoked the spirit of Amabhokobhoko with its resilience and resolve which the Springboks so doggedly meted out to the All Blacks in Paris to win the Rugby World Cup for a historic fourth time.

Team Ramaphosa wants to emulate the success of the champion Boks against much greater great odds in reversing and thus transforming the socio-economic fortunes, some would say entrenched woes, of the country.

Messrs Ramaphosa and Godongwana have also repeatedly invoked the spirit of ubuntu as the guiding principle of their policy approach.

The metaphors abound like confetti that of a team and government in union.

At moments when their cause seemed lost, declared Ramaphosa in his address to the nation on his governments economic progress, they fought back and they emerged victorious.

The determination and resilience of our teams have given credence to Madibas words that sport unites the nation. As we confront the many severe challenges in our country, we draw hope and encouragement from the determination and the performance of the Springboks.

Siya Kolisi and his rugby cadres seem to have the values of ubuntu imprinted in their DNA that of uniting the country, playing for the nation, and succeeding in adversity.

The ANC since the elapse of Madibas presidency, has been on a downward spiral, with many of its erstwhile supporters including the late great Bishop Desmond Tutu decrying the moral collapse of the party.

Activists stress the concept of ubuntu has long been hijacked and commercialised, bereft of its meaning of dignity, common humanity, responsibility of individuals to each other the very antidote to unfettered individualism, self-interest and enrichment.

Any moral claim by the ANC to the values of ubuntu rings hollow.

The ruling partys rhetoric does not match its failure in policy delivery in righting the wrongs of apartheid, after its first three terms in office.

South Africans of all political colours will rightly hold him, his president and the ANC to account.

His three core policy objectives are to stabilise public finances while maintaining support for the most vulnerable and protecting front line services; fast track growth-enhancing reforms; and reconfiguring the structure and size of the state, while strengthening its capacity to deliver quality public services.

How many times has a South African finance minister started a speech in the last decade lamenting that the economic outlook over the medium term remains weak, reflecting the cumulative effect of power cuts, the poor performance of the logistics sector, high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and a weaker global environment?

The data of despair is depressing.

The countrys gross debt for the next three financial years is projected by Godongwana to rise to monopoly figures at R16 trillion from R4.8 trillion in 2023/24 to R5.2 trillion in 2024-25 and over R6bn in 2025/26.

Not surprisingly, he now expects gross government debt to stabilise at 77% of GDP by 2025/26, which is higher than the February forecast.

The nauseous bedfellow of rising debt is debt servicing costs.

Over the next three years, debt-service costs as a share of revenue will increase from 20.7% per cent in 2023/24 to 22.1% in 2026/27, rued Godongwana. This translates into debt interest servicing costs of R385.9bn in 2024 alone and cumulatively over the Medium-Term Economic Forecast of a staggering estimated R1.3 trillion, which is unsustainable by any metric save rising revenues.

Godongwana is arming himself with a spate of key laws to achieve his stated objectives to rein in spending of SOEs, municipalities and local government through an Omnibus Bill.

Here he has to be commended for taking on the public spending orthodoxy of the ANC, which seems to be concentrated on social spending beyond the normal vulnerable and disabled cohorts for as many economic segments irrespective of whether the economy can afford it or not.

Parker is an economist and writer based in London

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Odds stacked against Team CR's attempts to emulate champs - IOL

The large-scale real-time battles of the Total War series have been a staple of PC gaming for more than two decades now. However, in 2016, the series crossed a rubicon. Leaving history behind, Total War made a brave step into the world of fantasy with Total War: Warhammer.

This bold move gave us one of the best PC strategy games of recent years. It also marked a point of no return for the venerable series. Where once historically accurate ranks of centurions faced off in their plumed Roman helmets in Rome: Total War, now armies of Orcs, rat-people and elves took to the field, their forces flanked by fantastical beasts and mind-boggling siege engines. Even the boring, vanilla human faction boasts a gun that shoots fireworks.

By adopting Games Workshops off-the-wall Warhammer Fantasy setting, Total War was able to radically enhance the complexity and variety available to players during its setpiece battles. Though the simulation elements of battles are preserved, these new frontiers for the series allowed the games to act as something of a playground for fans old and new.

Built on fantasy tropes from the ground up, the Warhammer setting is designed to accommodate wildly different factions ranging from bog standard humans to flamboyant elves and hyper-aggressive Orcs. The whole thing breeds imagination and playfulness. Want to pit an army of steam tanks against twenty dragons? You can.

In the shadow of this imaginative new direction, the historical Total War games now appear lacking. As much as Total War: Pharaoh's dogged recreation of the Bronze Age Collapse satisfied my inner history buff, having played the Warhammer titles, I couldnt help but feel that something was missing from the mix.

Pharaohs factions are mechanically distinctive and offer players a broad range of paths that they might take to survive. However, the games portrayal of historical figures struck me as bland, and never quite reached the characterful heights of the likes of Civilization 6. This is because Total War has always used conflict and battle to do the talking. During engagements, Ramesses and his honor guard are a distinctive unit, fulfilling a unique role. At court, however, hes just another face, acting no differently to the cavalcade of bland talking heads that make up the games political mechanics.

The scale of the Total War games suits the theatrical melodrama of the Warhammer setting

Total War: Warhammer sidesteps this problem by using broad fantasy archetypes. Faction leaders like the human Emperor Karl Franz or vampire lord Vlad von Carstein are already larger-than-life figures. Spend ten minutes playing as either character and their voice lines, animations, and visual design will tell you everything you need to know.

Franz is an imposing sort, clad in ornate yet hefty armor-plating. He is practical and tough, but also ostentatious. Meanwhile, Vlad is gnarled and sinister, his mottled skin, red eyes, and missing nose telling you exactly what sort of vampire he is: a dark lord who bites first and asks questions later.

The scale of the Total War games suits the theatrical melodrama of the Warhammer setting. Among the morass of interlocking diplomatic trade systems, the individuality of historical figures like Seti and Ramesses is lost. However, much like the punchy and over-the-top designs of characters in Overwatch 2, Total War: Warhammers factions are wildly different. The tension created by these differences propels the game forward, giving players a distinct sense of identity and purpose during campaigns.

Pharaoh does try to take lessons from Total War: Warhammer, albeit with limited success. Representing the culmination of the Bronze Age Collapse, the final act of a Total War: Pharaoh campaign has you battle the onslaught of the Sea Peoples - a coalition of displaced tribal societies from the north. Its a classic endgame crisis in the vein of Stellaris - an existential war that threatens your faction.

Theres plenty of tension to be had here, too. Fighting off waves of northern invaders adds a pleasing extra layer of strategic challenge to the closing acts of a Pharaoh campaign. However, the Sea Peoples Invasion pales in comparison to the endgame crisis from Total War: Warhammer: the invasion of the malevolent forces of the Chaos Gods.

Its telling that Total War: Pharaoh has to sidestep history to provide its most interesting setpiece

This is, in part, because dramatic endgame crises like this are far better suited to fictionalized settings than their historical counterparts. The apocalyptic drama of these events adds zest to fantasy worlds while undermining the historical accuracy of real-world settings. For instance, we know that the Bronze Age Collapse was as much rooted in drought, disease, and migration as it was in flat-out invasion. Though debated by historians, it seems likely that the Sea Peoples arrived not so much to conquer Egypt as they did to mop up the remains of an already-fractured and dwindling empire.

Its telling that Total War: Pharaoh has to sidestep history to provide its most interesting setpiece. By contrast, Total War: Warhammers endgame crisis was firmly rooted both in the emergent narrative of a given campaign and in the setting as a whole. Throughout the game, most factions have to mitigate 'Chaos Corruption,' a sort of magical disease that infects the world as the powers of Chaos grow more threatening.

As the campaign continues, northern tribes loyal to Chaos make increasingly daring raids, before full-on armies loyal to these dark forces emerge. Eventually, Archaon the Everchosen, a Sauron-esque big bad, arrives from the north to lay waste to the land.

Unburdened by history, Warhammer lets you get right to the dramatic battles

Total War: Warhammer doesnt have to worry about ideas of authenticity or accuracy. Socio-economic factors play second fiddle to a sweeping battle between good and evil reminiscent of Tolkiens universe or Dungeons & Dragons. Unburdened by history, Warhammer lets you get right to the dramatic battles and thrilling strategic challenges without bogging you down in the series relatively uninspiring diplomacy or trade mechanics.

In a series thats ultimately all about the battles, the Warhammer setting serves the strengths of the Total War games far better than the non-fictional backdrop of Bronze Age Egypt.

Though the historical Total War titles offered a fantastic springboard for the series and produced classics like Rome: Total War, its the fantastical variety found in the likes of Total War: Warhammer that marks the series future. This isnt to say that Total War has lost the ability to provide satisfying historical experiences, rather it will need to learn the lessons of its wildly successful fantasy titles if it wishes to rekindle the old magic.

Looking to broaden your gaming horizons? Check out our lists of the best single-player games and the best co-op games.

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Total War: Warhammer makes the likes of Total War: Pharaoh feel ... - TechRadar