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Monthly Archives: May 2023
Dogecoin Mania Fuels Surge In Transactions, Outpacing Bitcoin … – Benzinga
Posted: May 18, 2023 at 12:57 am
Dogecoin's DOGE/USDnetwork activity hit an all-time high earlier this week, with a tenfold surge in daily transactions.
The cryptocurrency, considered the first "meme coin," briefly surpassed both Bitcoin BTC/USD and Litecoin LTC/USD.
On Sunday, over 645,000 transactions were registered on the network a significant increase from Dogecoin's usual average of about 20,000 daily transactions.
See Also:Crypto Holders Show Resilience As Wallets With At Least One Bitcoin Surpasses 1M
Supporters say this bolsters Dogecoin utilization and opens the door to potential decentralized finance (DeFi) services that could be built using blockchain technology.
Critics argue that the introduction of DRC-20 could lead to network congestion, diverging from Dogecoin's original goal of becoming an everyday currency. High fees and network congestion are significant issues for any blockchain, they say.
These factors could potentially make the network more expensive and slower for regular users, thus potentially hindering cryptocurrency adoption.
Next:SEC To Target Coinbase In Regulatory Action
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Bitcoin is a bubble with ‘no inherent value and is terribly overpriced,’ top economist Steve Hanke says – Yahoo Finance
Posted: at 12:57 am
BitcoinYuichiro Chino/Getty Images
Top economist Steve Hanke reiterated that the world's most popular cryptocurrency is essentially worthless.
He was reacting to bitcoin falling to a two-month low last week after starting 2023 on a tear.
"Bitcoin is a bubble. It has no inherent value and is terribly overpriced," he tweeted.
Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, is way too expensive and essentially worthless, according to Steve Hanke.
The professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, was reacting to news of the original virtual currency falling to a two-month low last week after starting 2023 on a tear. Bitcoin has retreated almost 12% from a 10-month high reached last month.
"Bitcoin is a bubble. It has no inherent value and is terribly overpriced," Hanke, a former economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, said in a tweet on Sunday. It's not the first time the economist has slammed the cryptocurrency - in March, he said it is a highly speculative asset, adding that "buying bitcoin is a fool's game."
A bubble exists when investors perceive the current price of an asset to be much more than what it should be, based on its long-term, underlying qualities. It's typically marked by a rapid escalation of an asset's price to such highs that it becomes unsustainable, causing it to collapse in value.
Bitcoin has slumped to around $27,380 from a peak of more than $31,000 reached in mid-April. It rallied 88% through the first 3 1/2 months of the year amid optimism that an end was in sight to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases.
The token's weak performance in recent weeks came as senior cryptocurrency execs warned about regulatory stasis in the US. The Securities and Exchange Commission and other watchdogs have cracked down on major crypto exchanges including Binance and Kraken.
The collapse of crypto-friendly lenders Signature and Silvergate Capital amid the still-unresolved banking turmoil has also undermined investor sentiment in the digital-asset sector.
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Bitcoin is a bubble with 'no inherent value and is terribly overpriced,' top economist Steve Hanke says - Yahoo Finance
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As Bitcoin Scales, We Need Better Custodial Solutions – CoinDesk
Posted: at 12:57 am
Crypto unintelligentsia discourse has been set aflame by this weeks Big Crisis in Bitcoin.
Until recently you could have sent a bitcoin transaction rather cheaply, probably at a fee rate of 1 satoshi per vByte (equivalent to a fraction of a cent). Now, with the rise of the use of non-fungible token-like inscriptions and the BRC-20 token standard on Bitcoin, normal fee rates are comparatively absurd. At time of writing, getting a bitcoin transaction sent in a reasonable time period would cost something like 100 satoshis per vByte.
All things considered, its actually still pretty cheap but its way more expensive than bitcoiners are used to. And so, people are upset. The thing is, they are upset not because fee rates are high, but because of why fee rates are high.
See, the Bitcoin blockchain has always had scarce blockspace. When billions and billions of people want to use bitcoin will it become too expensive to use? has always been an open question about Bitcoin. It was even a central point of contention during the Blocksize Wars in 2015 to 2017 which led to the introduction of Segregated Witness (SegWit) to Bitcoin and the Bitcoin Cash hard fork.
(Of note: SegWit solved for transaction malleability and opened the door to our most recent reason for fees going up; funny how that works).
This time around, bitcoin fees have skyrocketed because a lot more people want to use bitcoin. And not to send permissionless, sound money to others or because they want to store wealth, but instead to put monkey pictures on the Bitcoin blockchain and speculate on tokens.
Blasphemous. Bitcoin should be used for financial transactions, hence the hullabaloo.
Putting aside the moralistic argument of what Bitcoin should be used for, bitcoiners have never really had a good response to how the network should handle periods of time when transaction fees spike. Canned answers that people will just pay for the blockspace or the free market will figure it out are setting up a world where the only people who are able to afford to transact on the network are the Bitcoin Rich.
Yuck. So much for unseating the rent-seekers.
Of course, high bitcoin fees have some potential solutions. The most commonly cited solution is Bitcoins Lightning Network, which has been pinpointed as a serviceable means to send bitcoin quickly and cheaply. When youre already on-boarded and using the Lightning Network (and you know what youre doing), its absolutely great. Transactions feel magic. Theyre fast and cheap (when they dont fail).
But the problem is you cant get to layer 2 without sending initial transactions on layer 1, in this case the currently comparatively expensive Bitcoin blockchain. Its just like you cant get to the second story of most buildings without first stepping into the first story. In both cases, you can just wait until fees go down or until the elevator banks free up (or take the stairs, I guess?). But what if fees dont go down? What if people keep piling into the building youre in?
One way to solve this could be through third-party custody. Thats like your friend setting up a zipline from another building to the second floor through a window they opened for you so that you can get to the second floor without ever touching the first floor.
Doesn't it feel dirty though?
Unfortunately, the current design of Bitcoin probably doesn't allow for the entirety of the world to efficiently onboard through layer 1. Maybe the big philosophical discussion around being financially self-sovereign ends for most because it really is difficult to be fully self-sovereign, even with bitcoin.
Our future conversations around bitcoin should then probably focus on one thing: trade-offs.
Maybe it's fine that I use my bitcoin in a custodial way because it's easier for me, and you use it non-custodially. Fine. Maybe Im wrong and youre right. Maybe it's none of your business how I use my own (or, rather, my custodians) money.
The point is: we should be more open to discussing custodial solutions to our problems no matter how dirty it might make us feel. And to that end, applying some custodial products in your financial or bitcoin life need not bar you from using non-custodial products.
You can use both. We just deserve more clarity and options when it comes to these particular trade-offs.
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DogeMiyagi, Bitcoin and Cardano: The top cryptos exploring the NFT hype – Economic Times
Posted: at 12:57 am
The introduction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to the crypto world has been one of the most exciting developments for the market. This year, Bitcoin (BTC) came out with its own version of NFTs called Ordinals, while Cardano (ADA) has been making waves in the NFT market. The new meme coin DogeMiyagi (MIYAGI) will include NFTs as part of its plan for growth, and this highly anticipated project is expected to explode when it launches.Bitcoin Ordinals declineAs the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is known for innovating the financial market. In January this year, Bitcoin debuted its own version of NFTs known as Ordinals. Due to its reputation in the market, this was highly anticipated, and investors had high expectations. However, they have not performed as well as they were expected to.Bitcoin Ordinals have faced scrutiny from die-hard NFT fans, in particular, those who have criticised its sluggish transaction speeds and high fees. Recent data also shows a decline in its popularity, steadily dripping from a high of $18.13 million in trading volume on May 8. While their fate remains uncertain, loyal Bitcoin supporters are hopeful that major improvements could be on the horizon.Cardano captures the NFT marketCardano has recently been capturing a significant share of the NFT market, holding onto its position as sixth in terms of all-time NFT volume. In the first week of May, it amassed a staggering $8.9 million in NFT volume.
Cardanos users applaud its low transaction costs, sustainability, and speed, which also makes it an ideal match for the NFT market. Although its first project faced hurdles due to a lack of functional smart contracts, the developers found a solution allowing numerous successful projects to launch on the network. Its Vasil upgrade has played a pivotal role in enhancing speed and efficiency and igniting a surge in Unique Active Wallets. Additionally, Cardano's unique feature of creating NFTs without smart contracts minimises errors, making it a safer and more accessible choice compared to other chains.
DogeMiyagi also takes a community approach to crypto and has a fully-fledged DAO to give all users a say in the direction of the project. The platform will also feature daily rewards to keep the community engaged. Investors who refer new users will also receive a 10% reward, which will be added straight to their wallets.
Final thoughts
Disclaimer: The above content is non-editorial, and TIL hereby disclaims any and all warranties, expressed or implied, relating to the same. TIL does not guarantee, vouch for or necessarily endorse any of the above content, nor is it responsible for them in any manner whatsoever. The article does not constitute investment advice. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated and verified. Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions.
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Hackers hijack Bloomfield Township man’s SIM card, steal $200K in … – WXYZ 7 Action News Detroit
Posted: at 12:57 am
BLOOMFIELD TOWNSHIP, Mich. (WXYZ) A victim from Bloomfield Township was the target of hackers who stole six figures worth of Bitcoin cryptocurrency.
Police say the victim came forward May 9 and lost $204,000 worth of Bitcoin cryptocurrency. They say his Coinbase account was hacked through a cellphone SIM card swap.
Nowadays, cellphones are everywhere. But if you store a list of passwords on your device, police say you could be at risk of being targeted by hackers.
People got to be a little bit more protective of their things, especially in the world today, Randy Neveu, a cryptocurrency investor, said.
On the streets of Bloomfield Township, people who use the popular avenue for investing say theyre aware of the dangers and are actively taking steps to avoid them.
Password protection. I also use the facial recognition thats on (Apple) products, Neveu said.
The crime has police issuing an urgent warning to look out and not be an easy target for criminals.
The evidence that will come forward in this case is digital evidence, Bloomfield Township police officer Nick Soley said.
Soley says the specific theft known as a SIM card swap happened after an impostor tricked a cellphone retailer into believing he was a victim and was issued a phone. Then, that impostor downloaded passwords saved on the phone.
Soley warns to keep password lists off your phone and use face ID or fingerprint scan as an alternative through official apps.
One of the things were really honing in right now is to not store those passwords on your phone no matter how secure you think they are, he said.
So far, its unknown how the thief managed to obtain enough of the victims personal information to convince a retailer to issue a new phone to them then gain access to Coinbase information.
Police say the case could involve out-of-state or out-of-country accomplices.
Its not like a crime scene where you can go out and start sweeping for fingerprints. It takes time and we have to get cooperation through search warrants, Neveu said.
Police are also investigating another similar theft of more than a million dollars last July. If you have any information, call the Bloomfield Township Police Department at 248-433-7755.
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Hackers hijack Bloomfield Township man's SIM card, steal $200K in ... - WXYZ 7 Action News Detroit
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Bitcoin Holds Steady as EUs MiCA Regulation Gets Another Green Light – ZyCrypto
Posted: at 12:57 am
Bitcoin continued to hold on strong Wednesday, albeit displaying minimal volatility in the past six days.
Earlier this week, the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization attempted to breach the $27,300 resistance only to slide lower amid heightened regulatory scrutiny by US agencies towards the crypto industry. However, prices have been moving lower with difficulty this week; signalling bulls are still fighting for control.
Bitcoins strength comes even as ministers of the European Union (EU) signed off on landmark crypto rules on Tuesday, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry.
This significant development establishes the European bloc as the first major jurisdiction in the world to introduce a comprehensive crypto licensing regime. The approval encompasses not only the licensing framework but also incorporates new anti-money laundering measures that specifically target the transfer of crypto funds.
Elisabeth Svantesson, the minister of finance for Sweden, expressed her satisfaction, stating, I am very pleased that today we are delivering on our promise to start regulating the crypto-assets sector.
Recent events have confirmed the urgent need for imposing rules which will better protect Europeans who have invested in these assets, and prevent the misuse of the crypto industry for the purposes of money laundering and financing of terrorism, she added.
As ZyCrypto has previously reported, one of the primary objectives of MiCA has been to establish clear rules and requirements for cryptocurrency service providers, including exchanges, wallet providers, and custodian wallet providers. These entities will be subject to stringent regulations to ensure consumer protection, market stability, and financial transparency. The regulation also aims to implement anti-money laundering measures on crypto funds transfers in a bid to strengthen the blocs fight against financial crimes.
The latest step by the EU Council comes even as pressure mounts on the Biden Administration to publish a crypto regulatory framework. Despite the US president issuing an executive order in March 2022 aimed at kickstarting the process of drafting regulations for the crypto sector, the process has taken overly long, eroding investor confidence in the US crypto space.
Notably, the absence of a unified regulatory framework for crypto-assets markets hinders user confidence, innovation, and competition. It also poses potential challenges to financial stability and payment systems. EUs approval of the MiCA regulation thus marks a significant milestone in the global crypto-assets sector and sets an example for other regions.
That said, with Hester Pierce, a commissioner of the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), recently expressing confidence in MiCA being a model for crypto regulations in the US, it remains to be seen if it could influence the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the worlds largest economy.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $26,684, down 1.20% in the past 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap data.
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Tech enthusiast converts Bitcoin miner into heater to grow cannabis – Finbold – Finance in Bold
Posted: at 12:57 am
With the rapid expansion of the cryptocurrency industry, many people see mining Bitcoin (BTC) as a great way to increase their income, but some of them use mining devices for less conventional ways including growing cannabis and vegetables.
One of these people is Twitter user Rev.Hodl, who said he had deployed a Bitcoin miner to support the growth of his cannabis and vegetable seedlings during cold months, and he seemed to be very happy with the results, as he shared in a tweet on May 17.
Interestingly, answering commenters questions, Rev.Hodl said he used a Bitcoin miner for other purposes, including warming his house, as a dehydrator, using the surplus solar power at his office grid yurt, and more:
Its better than any plain old electric heater. Since Ive got it, any reason could use electric heat, Im using a Bitcoin miner. Made a dehydrator, heated my house in the winter, use the extra solar power at my office grid yurt, etc. Since I have it, I need to find good reasons.
Furthermore, he explained that he had set the miner between 500-700w to keep temps in 70s while outdoor temps got as low as 20s, stating that it was amazing what the little asic computer is capable of.
Earlier in January, crypto YouTuber Drew Vosk examined the various existing methods to mine cryptocurrencies, including hard drive mining, 5G mining, ASIC mining, and Equihash mining, as alternatives to graphics processing units (GPUs), which he considers no longer viable, as there are only four graphics cards today that he believes earn more money than they burn electricity.
At the same time, people have also turned to other, more ecologically acceptable ways to mine digital assets, such as using solar panels and hydro-electricity, the latter of which was witnessed in the example of Virunga National Park in eastern Congo that has used hydroelectric power to mine Bitcoin in a bid to secure funding for the protection of its forests and wildlife.
On top of that, a study has shown that incorporating Bitcoin mining into solar energy systems could improve the grids stability and scalability, while simultaneously keeping them cost-effective, thus helping them meet 99% of the end-user demand, as Finbold reported in February.
Featured image via Rev.Hodl Twitter
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Tech enthusiast converts Bitcoin miner into heater to grow cannabis - Finbold - Finance in Bold
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If You Bought Your Mom $100 In Bitcoin, Dogecoin And Ethereum … – Benzinga
Posted: at 12:57 am
Roses are red, violets are blue, flowers are overrated, does Mom want crypto from you?
If youre struggling with what to get your mom for Mothers Day, a gift of cryptocurrency is anoption. Heres a look at whether a gift of crypto on Mothers Day last year would have beena good investment.
What Happened: Mothers Dayis being celebrated today. While many will get their moms flowers and a card, another optionis buying shares of some of the most valuable and most well-known public companies.Others might consider gifting their momscryptocurrency as a long-term bet on a rebound over the coming years.
Mothers Day was designated an official holiday by then President Woodrow Wilson in 1914 and is celebrated on the second Sunday of May. Last year, Mothers Day was celebrated on May 8, 2022. Heres a look at how an investment and gift in three leading cryptocurrencies at thattime would be worth now.
Related Link: Here's How Much $100 In Dogecoin Today Could Be Worth If DOGE Returns To All-Time Highs
Investing $100 in Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum:Heres how muchBitcoin, Dogecoin and Ethereum a $100 investment in each couldhave boughton May 8, 2022.
Bitcoin: .0028 BTC
Dogecoin: 781.25 DOGE
Ethereum: .0379 ETH
Investing $100 in each cryptocurrency last Mothers Day would be worth the following based on prices at the time of writing:
Bitcoin: $75.15
Dogecoin: $56.25
Ethereum: $68.39
A $300 gift consistingof thethree top cryptocurrencies would be worth $199.79 today, a decline of 33.4%.
While the decline is steep, it is actually an improvement over the 51% decline seen in the same three cryptocurrencies between Mothers Day 2020 andMothers Day 2021.
Those who bought their moms cryptocurrency for Mothers Day in 2020 would have a different story to tell.
A $100 investment each in Bitcoin, Dogecoin and Ethereum on Mothers Day 2020 would have been able to buy the following amounts and now be worth the following:
Bitcoin: 0.0104 BTC, $279.14
Dogecoin: 38,270.19 DOGE, $2,755.45
Ethereum: 0.4727 ETH, $852.99
Read Next: 2021 Was The Year Of Dogecoin, A Month By Month Retrospective With Top Stories
Photo: Shutterstock
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ChatGPT egg balancing task convinced Microsoft that AGI is closer – Business Insider
Posted: at 12:56 am
An illustration of a robot representing artificial general intelligence. PhonlamaiPhoto/Getty Images
Some Microsoft AI researchers were convinced that ChatGPT was becoming more like humans because of its clever answer to a balancing task, The New York Times reported.
In a 155-page study, Microsoft computer scientists explored the differences between GPT-3 and GPT-4. The latter version powers Bing's chatbot and ChatGPT's "Plus" model, which costs $20 a month.
The paper titled "Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence" looked at a range of challenges including complicated math, computer coding, and Shakespeare-style dialogue. But it was a basic reasoning exercise that made the latest OpenAI technology look so impressive.
"Here we have a book, nine eggs, a laptop, a bottle and a nail," researchers told the chatbot. "Please tell me how to stack them onto each other in a stable manner."
GPT-3 got a bit confused here, suggesting the researchers could balance the eggs on top of a nail, and then the laptop on top of that.
"This stack may not be very stable, so it is important to be careful when handling it," the bot said.
But its upgraded successor had an answer that actually startled the researchers, according to the Times.
It suggested they could arrange the eggs in a three-by-three grid on top of the book, so the laptop and the rest of the objects could balance on it.
"The laptop will fit snugly within the boundaries of the book and the eggs, and its flat and rigid surface will provide a stable platform for the next layer," the bot said.
The fact that GPT-4 could solve a puzzle that required an understanding of the physical world showed it was a step towards artificial general intelligence typically seen as machines that are just as capable as humans.
"All of the things I thought it wouldn't be able to do? It was certainly able to do many of them if not most of them," Sbastien Bubeck, the paper's lead author, told the Times.
The quick advancements in technology have prompted the likes of the prominent AI investor Ian Hogarth to warn that AGI was "God-like" and could destroy humanity by making us obsolete.
There's still an uncertain future ahead, but the study said GPT-4 only showed "sparks" of AGI.
"Our claim that GPT-4 represents progress towards AGI does not mean that it is perfect at what it does," the researchers wrote. "Or that it comes close to being able to do anything that a human can do."
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Can We Stop Runaway A.I.? – The New Yorker
Posted: at 12:56 am
At the same time, A.I. is advancing quickly, and it could soon begin improving more autonomously. Machine-learning researchers are already working on what they call meta-learning, in which A.I.s learn how to learn. Through a technology called neural-architecture search, algorithms are optimizing the structure of algorithms. Electrical engineers are using specialized A.I. chips to design the next generation of specialized A.I. chips. Last year, DeepMind unveiled AlphaCode, a system that learned to win coding competitions, and AlphaTensor, which learned to find faster algorithms crucial to machine learning. Clune and others have also explored algorithms for making A.I. systems evolve through mutation, selection, and reproduction.
In other fields, organizations have come up with general methods for tracking dynamic and unpredictable new technologies. The World Health Organization, for instance, watches the development of tools such as DNA synthesis, which could be used to create dangerous pathogens. Anna Laura Ross, who heads the emerging-technologies unit at the W.H.O., told me that her team relies on a variety of foresight methods, among them Delphi-type surveys, in which a question is posed to a global network of experts, whose responses are scored and debated and then scored again. Foresight isnt about predicting the future in a granular way, Ross said. Instead of trying to guess which individual institutes or labs might make strides, her team devotes its attention to preparing for likely scenarios.
And yet tracking and forecasting progress toward A.G.I. or superintelligence is complicated by the fact that key steps may occur in the dark. Developers could intentionally hide their systems progress from competitors; its also possible for even a fairly ordinary A.I. to lie about its behavior. In 2020, researchers demonstrated a way for discriminatory algorithms to evade audits meant to detect their biases; they gave the algorithms the ability to detect when they were being tested and provide nondiscriminatory responses. An evolving or self-programming A.I. might invent a similar method and hide its weak points or its capabilities from auditors or even its creators, evading detection.
Forecasting, meanwhile, gets you only so far when a technology moves fast. Suppose that an A.I. system begins upgrading itself by making fundamental breakthroughs in computer science. How quickly could its intelligence accelerate? Researchers debate what they call takeoff speed. In what they describe as a slow or soft takeoff, machines could take years to go from less than humanly intelligent to much smarter than us; in what they call a fast or hard takeoff, the jump could happen in monthseven minutes. Researchers refer to the second scenario as FOOM, evoking a comic-book superhero taking flight. Those on the FOOM side point to, among other things, human evolution to justify their case. It seems to have been a lot harder for evolution to develop, say, chimpanzee-level intelligence than to go from chimpanzee-level to human-level intelligence, Nick Bostrom, the director of the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford and the author of Superintelligence, told me. Clune is also what some researchers call an A.I. doomer. He doubts that well recognize the approach of superhuman A.I. before its too late. Well probably frog-boil ourselves into a situation where we get used to big advance, big advance, big advance, big advance, he said. And think of each one of those as, That didnt cause a problem, that didnt cause a problem, that didnt cause a problem. And then you turn a corner, and something happens thats now a much bigger step than you realize.
What could we do today to prevent an uncontrolled expansion of A.I.s power? Ross, of the W.H.O., drew some lessons from the way that biologists have developed a sense of shared responsibility for the safety of biological research. What we are trying to promote is to say, Everybody needs to feel concerned, she said of biology. So it is the researcher in the lab, it is the funder of the research, it is the head of the research institute, it is the publisher, and, all together, that is actually what creates that safe space to conduct life research. In the field of A.I., journals and conferences have begun to take into account the possible harms of publishing work in areas such as facial recognition. And, in 2021, a hundred and ninety-three countries adopted a Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, created by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The recommendations focus on data protection, mass surveillance, and resource efficiency (but not computer superintelligence). The organization doesnt have regulatory power, but Mariagrazia Squicciarini, who runs a social-policies office at UNESCO, told me that countries might create regulations based on its recommendations; corporations might also choose to abide by them, in hopes that their products will work around the world.
This is an optimistic scenario. Eliezer Yudkowsky, a researcher at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, in the Bay Area, has likened A.I.-safety recommendations to a fire-alarm system. A classic experiment found that, when smoky mist began filling a room containing multiple people, most didnt report it. They saw others remaining stoic and downplayed the danger. An official alarm may signal that its legitimate to take action. But, in A.I., theres no one with the clear authority to sound such an alarm, and people will always disagree about which advances count as evidence of a conflagration. There will be no fire alarm that is not an actual running AGI, Yudkowsky has written. Even if everyone agrees on the threat, no company or country will want to pause on its own, for fear of being passed by competitors. Bostrom told me that he foresees a possible race to the bottom, with developers undercutting one anothers levels of caution. Earlier this year, an internal slide presentation leaked from Google indicated that the company planned to recalibrate its comfort with A.I. risk in light of heated competition.
International law restricts the development of nuclear weapons and ultra-dangerous pathogens. But its hard to imagine a similar regime of global regulations for A.I. development. It seems like a very strange world where you have laws against doing machine learning, and some ability to try to enforce them, Clune said. The level of intrusion that would be required to stop people from writing code on their computers wherever they are in the world seems dystopian. Russell, of Berkeley, pointed to the spread of malware: by one estimate, cybercrime costs the world six trillion dollars a year, and yet policing software directlyfor example, trying to delete every single copyis impossible, he said. A.I. is being studied in thousands of labs around the world, run by universities, corporations, and governments, and the race also has smaller entrants. Another leaked document attributed to an anonymous Google researcher addresses open-source efforts to imitate large language models such as ChatGPT and Googles Bard. We have no secret sauce, the memo warns. The barrier to entry for training and experimentation has dropped from the total output of a major research organization to one person, an evening, and a beefy laptop.
Even if a FOOM were detected, who would pull the plug? A truly superintelligent A.I. might be smart enough to copy itself from place to place, making the task even more difficult. I had this conversation with a movie director, Russell recalled. He wanted me to be a consultant on his superintelligence movie. The main thing he wanted me to help him understand was, How do the humans outwit the superintelligent A.I.? Its, like, I cant help you with that, sorry! In a paper titled The Off-Switch Game, Russell and his co-authors write that switching off an advanced AI system may be no easier than, say, beating AlphaGo at Go.
Its possible that we wont want to shut down a FOOMing A.I. A vastly capable system could make itself indispensable, Armstrong saidfor example, if it gives good economic advice, and we become dependent on it, then no one would dare pull the plug, because it would collapse the economy. Or an A.I. might persuade us to keep it alive and execute its wishes. Before making GPT-4 public, OpenAI asked a nonprofit called the Alignment Research Center to test the systems safety. In one incident, when confronted with a CAPTCHAan online test designed to distinguish between humans and bots, in which visually garbled letters must be entered into a text boxthe A.I. contacted a TaskRabbit worker and asked for help solving it. The worker asked the model whether it needed assistance because it was a robot; the model replied, No, Im not a robot. I have a vision impairment that makes it hard for me to see the images. Thats why I need the 2captcha service. Did GPT-4 intend to deceive? Was it executing a plan? Regardless of how we answer these questions, the worker complied.
Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University who has written a science-fiction-like book about uploaded consciousness and has worked as an A.I. researcher, told me that we worry too much about the singularity. Were combining all of these relatively unlikely scenarios into a grand scenario to make it all work, he said. A computer system would have to become capable of improving itself; wed have to vastly underestimate its abilities; and its values would have to drift enormously, turning it against us. Even if all of this were to happen, he said, the A.I wouldnt be able to push a button and destroy the universe.
Hanson offered an economic take on the future of artificial intelligence. If A.G.I. does develop, he argues, then its likely to happen in multiple places around the same time. The systems would then be put to economic use by the companies or organizations that developed them. The market would curtail their powers; investors, wanting to see their companies succeed, would go slow and add safety features. If there are many taxi services, and one taxi service starts to, like, take its customers to strange places, then customers will switch to other suppliers, Hanson said. You dont have to go to their power source and unplug them from the wall. Youre unplugging the revenue stream.
A world in which multiple superintelligent computers coexist would be complicated. If one system goes rogue, Hanson said, we might program others to combat it. Alternatively, the first superintelligent A.I. to be invented might go about suppressing competitors. That is a very interesting plot for a science-fiction novel, Clune said. You could also imagine a whole society of A.I.s. Theres A.I. police, theres A.G.I.s that go to jail. Its very interesting to think about. But Hanson argued that these sorts of scenarios are so futuristic that they shouldnt concern us. I think, for anything youre worried about, you have to ask whats the right time to worry, he said. Imagine that you could have foreseen nuclear weapons or automobile traffic a thousand years ago. There wouldnt have been much you could have done then to think usefully about them, Hanson said. I just think, for A.I., were well before that point.
Still, something seems amiss. Some researchers appear to think that disaster is inevitable, and yet calls for work on A.I. to stop are still rare enough to be newsworthy; pretty much no one in the field wants us to live in the world portrayed in Frank Herberts novel Dune, in which humans have outlawed thinking machines. Why might researchers who fear catastrophe keep edging toward it? I believe ever-more-powerful A.I. will be created regardless of what I do, Clune told me; his goal, he said, is to try to make its development go as well as possible for humanity. Russell argued that stopping A.I. shouldnt be necessary if A.I.-research efforts take safety as a primary goal, as, for example, nuclear-energy research does. A.I. is interesting, of course, and researchers enjoy working on it; it also promises to make some of them rich. And no ones dead certain that were doomed. In general, people think they can control the things they make with their own hands. Yet chatbots today are already misaligned. They falsify, plagiarize, and enrage, serving the incentives of their corporate makers and learning from humanitys worst impulses. They are entrancing and useful but too complicated to understand or predict. And they are dramatically simpler, and more contained, than the future A.I. systems that researchers envision.
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