Monthly Archives: September 2022

Once again, Vladimir Putin pulled a fast one on Joe Biden and the world. Thousands of miles from the marbled corridors of the United Nations, where leaders from more than a hundred and fifty countries had gathered for the General Assembly, the Russian President prempted the annual summit by announcing the mobilization of three hundred thousand reservists for his war in Ukraine. Its the first Russian mobilization since the Second World War, and twice the number of Russian forces dispatched to invade Ukraine seven months ago. Putin justified expanding his war effort by claiming that Russia is fighting virtually the entire military machine of the collective West, which intends to move the fight onto Russian territory to weaken, divide, and ultimately destroy the motherland.

In his seven-minute televised address, Putin also threatened, in thinly veiled terms, to deploy nuclear weapons on the battlefield, where he has begun to suffer serious losses in manpower and territory. Addressing NATO specifically, he warned, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction. We will certainly use all the means at our disposal. It was, he added, just hours before Biden took the U.N. stage, not a bluff.

NATOs Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, called Putins invocation of the worlds deadliest weapon dangerous and reckless. The use of nuclear weaponswhether a big, Hiroshima-style strategic bomb or a smaller-range tactical devicewould effectively escalate the conflict into a world war. In practice, it already is, given the sweeping array of equipment, intelligence, and planning provided by major Western powers.

Biden shot back at Putin from the U.N. lectern in the General Assemblys cavernous hall. This world should see these outrageous acts for what they are, he said. Putin claims he had to act because Russia was threatened, but no one threatened Russia and no one other than Russia sought conflict. Our blood should run cold over the horrifying evidence of war crimes and other atrocities committed by Putins army, Biden said. If nations can pursue their imperial ambitions without consequences, then the international order will crumble.

Biden also condemned the sham referenda scheduled to begin on Friday in four occupied areas in southern and eastern Ukraine. The referenda ask voters to approve formal Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory. The United States and European Union both announced this week that they will never recognize Russias absorption of any part of Ukraine.

The timing of Putins speech was no coincidence. Despite his recent military setbacks, the Russian President knows that resource-rich countries and major players on the world stageamong them Brazil, South Africa, and Indiaare still balking at joining U.S. sanctions against Russia to magnify the economic costs of the war. In a globalized world, even sanctions by a collection of Western nations cant squeeze Moscow into backing downat least not quickly. David Miliband, the former British foreign secretary who now heads the International Rescue Committee, told me that the decision by forty nations representing more than half the worlds population not to vote for the March U.N. resolution condemning the Russian invasion shows the skepticism about the West that the U.S. and its allies need to address. Russia also wields a vetoone of only fiveover any Security Council action. It has virtual immunity.

Bidens surprisingly brief retort to Putins declaration that he is expanding the waron the military and political frontsreflects the weakness, even dysfunction, of the U.N. It is essentially sidelined on most issues, certainly on the major issues of war and peace, Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former staffer in two U.S. Administrations, told me. Its irrelevant for the most part for this war, not simply by the way that Russia has a veto but also the Secretary-General seems unwilling to confront Russia.

The U.N. Secretary-General, Antnio Guterres, acknowledged the sense of morass about solving Earths major challenges. In remarks opening the General Assembly, he described a world threatened by existential criseswars raging on three continents, economic calamities and food insecurity on six, and cataclysmic climate change on all seven. We cannot go on like this, he said on Tuesday. We have a duty to act. And yet we are gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction.

His remarks went beyond the usual report-card rhetoric that dominates the annual assembly in New York. Todays problems are historic, the consequences potentially more enduring. Guterres cited the megadroughts in China and the United States, the worst heat wave in Europe since the Middle Ages, famine stalking the Horn of Africa, a monsoon on steroids that put a third of Pakistan underwater, a million species at risk of extinction, and more. Our world is in big trouble, he warned. Divides are growing deeper. Inequalities are growing wider. Challenges are spreading farther. The interconnecting crises show that the world is not ready or willing to tackle the big dramatic challenges of our age.

This year, the worlds largest annual gathering of heads of state lacked the lustre, leverage, and energyand even attendancethat usually accompanies it. Western leaders were all there. In an unusual exception, Ukraines President, Volodymyr Zelensky, was allowed to speak by video, from Kyiv. But two of the three most powerful leaders in the worldPutin and Chinas Xi Jinpingskipped out. So did Indias Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, the head of the worlds largest democracy. In the U.S., only forty-seven per cent of Americans have a favorable view of the U.N., according to a poll issued on Tuesday by Morning Consult. (Republicans have less positive views than Democrats.)

The U.N. has lost most of its relevance, purpose, and effectiveness for two reasons, Haass told me. The revival of the great-power rivalry between the U.S. and Russia has essentially gridlocked the fifteen-member Security Council. In his view, the rest of the U.N.the General Assembly, the various agencies, the World Health Organization, the climate initiativeinvolves scores of nations and often ends up accommodating the lowest common denominator and accomplishing little. Miliband added that the U.N. was founded, in 1945, when much of Europe was still in ruins, on the twin principles of national sovereignty and responsibility, and international law and rules. Over the decades, however, sovereignty has increasingly been used as a shield against accountability, not only by Russia. The summit has been turned into a gabfest. The U.N. faces a real geopolitical imperative to break this cycle, he said.

Despite the global divisions over Russia, Putins nuclear bluster and mobilization bravado are a huge gamble for his nation and himself. He needs more troops to take and hold Ukrainian territory after losing tens of thousands to death or injuries. On Wednesday, Zelensky said that he was not surprised by Putins announcementbecause of all the Russian desertions on the battlefield. (Russia has already been forced to deploy mercenaries and released prisoners.) Inside Russia, the mobilization will accentuate the wars growing costs. After Putins speech, flights out of the country were reportedly rocketing in price and selling out fast. The most popular destinations were Istanbul and Yerevan; neither Turkey nor Armenia requires Russians to acquire a visa. More than a thousand people were reportedly detained during protests in more than thirty cities, and as far away as Siberia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, Putins call to partially mobilize Russian citizens, directing them to fight in Ukraine, reflects the Kremlins struggles on the battlefield, the unpopularity of the war, and Russians unwillingness to fight in it. The problems for Putin are far from over. And so, alas, is the war in Ukraine.

Read more:

Putin Expands His War as Biden Tries to Rally the U.N. - The New Yorker

If an American president announced a major speech, booked the networks for 8 p.m., and then disappeared until the following morning, the analysis would be immediate and damning: chaos, disarray, indecision. The White House must be in crisis.

In the past 24 hours, this is exactly what happened in Moscow. The Russian president really did announce a major speech, alert state television, warn journalists, and then disappear without explanation. Although Vladimir Putin finally gave his speech to the nation this morning, the same conclusions have to apply: chaos, disarray, indecision. The Kremlin must be in crisis.

In fact, no elements of the delayed speech were completely new or unexpected. Russian authorities have long intended to hold sham referenda in the Ukrainian territories they occupy. Putin and his television propagandists have been making subtle and unsubtle nuclear threats since February. Quietly, a creeping mobilization has been going on for many weeks too, as the Russian army has sought to recruit more men to replace the soldiers who it still does not admit have been killed, wounded, or exhausted by the war. But now that Ukraine has successfully recaptured thousands of square miles of Russian-held territory, the sham referenda are being rushed, the nuclear language is being repeated, and the mobilization expanded. These are not the actions of a secure leader assured of his legitimacy and of the outcome of this war.

In part, the crisis stems from Putins fears that he will lose whatever counts as his international support. No ideology holds together the global autocrats club, and no sentiment does either. As long as they believed Russia really had the second largest army in the world, as long as Putin seemed destined to stay in power indefinitely, then the leaders of China, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, along with the strongmen running India and Turkey, were happy to tolerate his company.

From the October 2022 issue: The man who chased history

But Putins supposedly inevitable military victory is in jeopardy. His army looks weak. Western sanctions make problems not just for him but his trading partners, and their tolerance is receding. At a summit in Uzbekistan last week, he was snubbed by a series of Central Asian leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him that todays era is not an era of war, and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his concerns as well. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan told PBS that he had urged Putin to end the war: The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine. And those lands, he made clear, should include Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, following a sham referendum much like the ones it now plans to stage in other parts of occupied Ukraine.

But while losing support abroad is bad, losing support at home is worse, and there are some signs of that too. Putin might not care much about the Russian liberals and exiles who oppose the war, but he may worry (and should worry) about people who are supposed to be on his sidepeople such as Alla Pugacheva, a Soviet-era pop star who has millions of mainstream followers and has recently proclaimed both her patriotism and her opposition to the war. Putin may also worry about the disappointed, pro-war nationalist bloggers, active on social media, who have been criticizing the conduct of the war for some time. Mobilization is, lets put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat, one of them recently wrote. No one has stopped or arrested these critics, perhaps because they have protectors high up inside the security services, or perhaps because they are connected to the heavily armed mercenaries who are now doing much of the important fighting in Ukraine. If their loyalty isnt assured, then Putin isnt secure either.

At the same time, the Russian president has to balance the discontent of that heavily armed minority against the wishes of the mostly apathetic, mostly silent majority. For the past six months, Putin has been telling the latter that there is no war, just a special military operation; that Russia has suffered no losses, just some temporary setbacks. Given that the army is victorious and everything is fine, most people need not alter their lives in any way. Now events have forced Putin to change his language, but it seems there are limits. Thus he speaks not of a true mass mobilizationwhich would involve conscripting young men in enormous numbersbut of partial mobilization: no students, no general call-up, just the activation of reservists with past military experience. Supposedly Russia has 300,000 such people, though its not clear how many of them are actually fit to fight or whether there are enough weapons and gear for them either. Presumably, if better equipment were available, it would already be on the battlefield.

Finally, and perhaps most important, the speech and a series of legal changes announced yesterday reflect a crisis inside the military. In truth, the Russian army faces not just a logistical emergency or some tactical problems but also a collapse in morale. Thats why Putin needs more soldiers, and thats why, as in Stalins time, the Russian state has now defined voluntary surrender as a crime: Under a law approved by the Russian Parliament yesterday, you can be sent to prison for up to 10 years. If you desert your guard post in Donetsk or Kherson (or change into civilian clothes and run away, as some Russian soldiers have done in the past few weeks). The state has also decreed new penalties for mutinyusing violence against a superiorand stealing while in uniform. If the Russian army were a reliable, enthusiastic, dedicated fighting force, then the state would not need to declare harsh punishments for deserters, looters, and mutineers. But it is not.

Anne Applebaum: Its time to prepare for a Ukrainian victory

Over the next few days, the bogus referenda will gather headlines, and the nuclear threats will create fear, as they were designed to do. But we should understand these attempts at blackmail and intimidation as a part of the deeper story told by this delayed speech: Support for Putin is erodingabroad, at home, and in the army. Everything else he says and does right now is nothing more than an attempt to halt that decline.

Continued here:

Putins Kremlin Is in Disarray - The Atlantic

Alexander, 33, found out about Vladimir Putins decision to order a partial mobilisation during an emotional call from his wife.

Sasha, they can take you, she told him shortly after hed arrived at his office in downtown Moscow.

While Alexander had served in the army as a conscript nearly 15 years ago, he never saw combat. That puts him comparatively low in the mobilisation draft, Russias first since the second world war.

Still, like many others, he is worried that he could receive a povestka, his draft papers, and be sent to the front.

Id rather leave than fight in this war, he said in a short interview over a messenger app. If they call me up, then I would want to leave [the country].

But because of a new law criminalising desertion, he said, he thinks that he could face a decade in prison or more if he runs. Its impossible, he said of the choice. In the end, he said, he would probably have to go into the army. But hell try to find a way around that.

Millions of Russians woke up on Wednesday to the realisation that they may actually have to participate in the countrys war and occupation of Ukraine. For nearly seven months, many Russians have tried to simply ignore the invasion of Ukraine. Now, for many families, the war has come home.

This is the thing everyone was afraid of when the war started, said one mother who believed her son could be drafted.

Others say theyre ready to fight. One man in his 30s with past military service said he believed that it was his patriotic duty to go into the army if he was drafted. I want to be with my country, he said.

So far, Russia has not closed the borders to prevent draft dodgers from leaving. But many think that could be the next step.

Russians fleeing the country have bought out tickets to countries like Turkey and Armenia, where they can travel without a visa. Individual tickets to those countries are not available until this weekend, and even then can cost more than $3,000. Aviasales, a popular air ticket site, even has an option to choose the destination wherever I can go.

Many European countries have closed their land borders to Russians, leaving still fewer options to escape. And even those Russians who leave could still face a criminal charge for desertion if they are drafted and dont return.

Large state companies have begun handing out draft papers. Among our colleagues, there are employees with combat experience, who have served in the armed forces, wrote Sberbank, a state-owned banking and financial services company. Some of them have their mobilisation papers and have been given their orders.

Opponents of the war have begun to protest in cities across Russia. But the rallies are small, sometimes just a handful of people. In Novosibirsk, one man who was arrested at a protest yelled: I dont want to die for Putin and for you! A protest is expected on Wednesday evening in Moscow as well. Russian police have already blocked off the central Pushkinskaya Square.

Opposition figures broadcast a prank call during which they reached the son of the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and told him hed been drafted for the war. He suggested that he would settle the matter on a different level.

Some opponents of the war have called it a mogilizatsia, a play on the word mobilisation and the word mogila, a grave.

We know its a lot more dangerous than they say, said Alexander. Otherwise why would they need the draft?

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Id rather leave than fight: Russians react to Putins draft - The Guardian

A local university student in Buryatias capital Ulan-Ude told the media outlet Village that police officers showed up at this university in the morning and were taking students straight out of classes.

Buryatias government confirmed reports that at least 11 schools in Ulan-Ude were shut down on Thursday to be used as mobilisation points, and school buses will now be used to ship conscripts.

Military commissioners seem to be sweeping Buryatia clear, even trying to enlist men who were long dead.

Two women showed up at my brothers address in the morning and said they wanted to hand him call-up papers, Natalya Vasilyeva from Ulan-Ude told the Telegraph, adding that her late brother had an exemption from the army due to bad health.

Several of her colleagues and friends were served call-up orders too:

Some got visits at 4, some at 6 a.m. They all went to the recruitment office.

Meanwhile, top Russian officials and lawmakers are beginning to feel the heat of criticism as they seem unwilling to go to war themselves or send their family members to Ukraine.

Nikolai Peskov, a 32-year-old son of President Putins spokesman, rejected suggestions to sign up when a member of a Russian opposition group prank-called him on Wednesday.

You need to understand that I shouldnt be there if my name is Mr Peskov, the spokesmans son told the activist who posed as a military official requesting him to show up at the military commissioners office.

Im going to solve this issue on a different level.

Asked if he was going to sign up for the army, Mr Peskov Jnr was heard saying: Certainly not.

The opposition activists released the full footage of the phone call but his father, Dmitry Peskov, insisted that the remarks were taken out of context and that he had no doubts in his sons choice.

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Putin 'passes secret law to send one million Russians to fight in Ukraine' - The Telegraph

Russia has announced a partial mobilisation in a major escalation that places the countrys people and economy on a wartime footing.

With president Vladimir Putin also threatening nuclear retaliation, we would like to hear from Russians about how ordinary people are reacting to the latest developments in the war on Ukraine.

How are you, family and friends feeling about the situation? What are your hopes and fears for the coming weeks and months? We would also like to hear from Russians living in the UK, US or elsewhere.

If you are 18 years or over you can get in touch by filling in the form below, anonymously if you wish, or contact us via WhatsApp by clicking here or adding +44(0)7766780300. You can also contact us via Telegram by clicking here or adding +44(0)7799322095.

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Russians: tell us what you think about Putin's escalation of war in Ukraine - The Guardian

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SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he understood that Xi Jinping had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine but praised China's leader for what he said was a "balanced" position on the conflict.

Russia's war has killed tens of thousands of people and pushed the global economy into uncharted waters with soaring food and energy prices amid the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

At their first face-to-face meeting since the war, Xi said he was very happy to meet "my old friend" again after Putin said U.S. attempts to create a unipolar world would fail.

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"We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," Putin told Xi, whom he addressed as "Dear Comrade Xi Jinping, dear friend".

"We understand your questions and concern about this. During today's meeting, we will of course explain our position, we will explain in detail our position on this issue, although we have talked about this before."

Putin's first remarks about Chinese concern over the war come just days after a lightning rout of his forces in north-eastern Ukraine. read more

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later told reporters that the talks behind closed doors had been excellent.

"Our assessments of the international situation coincide completely ... there are no discrepancies at all," he said. "We will continue to coordinate our actions including at the forthcoming U.N. General Assembly."

Xi did not mention Ukraine in his public remarks. read more

A Chinese readout of the meeting also did not mention Ukraine. It said China is willing to give strong support to Russia for matters related to its core interests, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

China has refrained from condemning Russia's operation against Ukraine or calling it an "invasion" in line with the Kremlin, which casts the war as "a special military operation".

The last time Xi and Putin met in person, just weeks before the Feb 24 invasion, they declared a "no limits" partnership and inked a promise to collaborate more against the West. read more

Beijing is perturbed by the impact on the global economy and has been careful not to give material support to Russia that could trigger Western sanctions on China's own economy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh pose for a picture during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan September 15, 2022. Sputnik/Alexandr Demyanchuk/Pool via REUTERS

The Xi-Putin partnership is considered one of the most significant developments in geopolitics after China's own spectacular rise over the past 40 years.

But the war has underscored the different trajectories of China and Russia: one a rising superpower whose economy is forecast to overtake the United States in a decade; the other, a former superpower struggling with a draining war.

Once the leader in the global Communist hierarchy, Russia after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union is now a junior partner to a resurgent China which already leads in some 21st century technologies.

"China is willing to work with Russia to play a leading role in demonstrating the responsibility of major powers, and to instil stability and positive energy into a world in turmoil," Xi told Putin.

While Xi has now met Putin in person 39 times since becoming China's president in 2013, he has yet to meet Joe Biden in person since the latter became U.S. President in 2021.

Xi's trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan was his first outside China since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. His last trip outside China was a visit to Myanmar in January 2020.

Putin and Xi share a world view which sees the West as decadent and in decline just as China challenges the United States' supremacy.

Putin explicitly backed China over Taiwan.

"We intend to firmly adhere to the principle of 'One China'," Putin said. "We condemn provocations by the United States and their satellites in the Taiwan Strait."

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry condemned Putin for the remarks and for Russia being in China's "cortege" in "continuing to make false statements that disparage our sovereignty internationally".

As the West tries to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, Putin is seeking to boost exports to China and Asia, possibly with a pipeline through Mongolia.

At a meeting with Xi and Putin, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh said he supported the construction of oil and gas pipelines from Russia to China via Mongolia.

Russia has for years been studying the possibility for a major new gas pipeline - the Power of Siberia 2 - to travel through Mongolia taking Russian gas to China.

It will carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, around a third of what Russia usually sells Europe.

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Additonal reporting by Ryan Woo, Yew Lun Tian, Ben Blanchard and David Ljunggren; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov and Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky, Tomasz Janowski, Jon Boyle and Jonathan Oatis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Putin says Xi has questions and concerns over Ukraine - Reuters

Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst in Defence Strategy and Capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told ABC Radio Brisbane that Vladimir Putin's announcement indicated he recognised Russia was losing the war.

"I think what you are seeing is essentially a desperate grab at another opportunity to try and turn the tide but it's not going to work," he said.

"What we will see is that this partial mobilisation will go ahead but it will take a long time to produce any effective combat capability and it will encounter a great deal of internal opposition from the Russian people.

"This is essentially reinforcing the case that Russia is losing the war, it's certainly not a case of Russia winning the war."

Mr Davis said he believed the greater concern is the risk Russia begins to use low-yield tactical nuclear weapons as the mobilisation fails to deliver victory for Putin.

"The thinking is that Russia would use one or perhaps a few of these weapons to try to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table to end the war on Russia's terms and basically use them as warning shots," he said.

But if Russia were to use nuclear weapons, "NATO would be forced to intervene," Mr Davis said.

"They couldn't just simply just sit back and do nothing, it's quite likely that at that point NATO would intervene at the conventional level," he said.

"Then we have the risk of it escalating up to a high-level conflict."

Reporting by Antonia O'Flaherty

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Russia-Ukraine war updates: Penny Wong says Vladimir Putin's 'threats unthinkable and irresponsible' as it happened - ABC News