Monthly Archives: September 2022

In a harsh warning, President Vladimir Putin declared that he won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons to protect Russian territory, a threat that comes as Moscow is poised to annex swaths of Ukraine that Moscow has taken over after hastily called referendums there.

While the West has heard such rhetoric from him before, the circumstances are starkly different.

The Kremlin has orchestrated referendums in the occupied areas of Ukraine that are set to start Friday. Residents will be asked whether they want to become part of Russia a vote that is certain to go Moscow's way. That means Russia could absorb those lands as early as next week.

Putin then raised the stakes by a nnouncing a partial mobilization and vowed to use all available means to deter future attacks against Russia a reference to Russia's nuclear arsenal in a chilling new round of brinkmanship.

Some observers see Putins move to annex Ukrainian territory along with the mobilization and renewed nuclear threats as a last-ditch attempt to force Ukraine and its Western backers into accepting the current status quo after a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive earlier this month.

Tatiana Stanovaya, an independent political expert who follows the Kremlins decision-making, described Putin's rushed moves on the referendums as a pretext for upping the ante.

This is a blunt Russian ultimatum to Ukraine and the West: Ukraine must back off or there will be a nuclear war, Stanovaya said. For Putin, the annexation would legitimize the right to resort to nuclear threats to protect the Russian territory.

In a televised address to the nation Wednesday, Putin said Moscow's nuclear arsenal is more modern than NATO's and declared his readiness to use them.

"This is not a bluff, Putin added somberly in an apparent reference to those in the West who described his earlier nuclear threats as a blustery attempt to weaken the international support for Ukraine.

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Russian military doctrine envisages the use of atomic weapons in response to a nuclear attack or aggression involving conventional weapons that threatens the very existence of the state, vague wording that offers ample room for interpretation.

In his brief speech, Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of arming and training Ukraine's military and encouraging Kyiv to attack Russian territory. He seemed to push the threshold for using nuclear weapons even lower.

In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly use all means available to us, he said.

In recent weeks, Russian officials have repeatedly warned Washington that supplies of longer-range missiles to Ukraine would effectively make the U.S. a party to the conflict.

U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers and other Western weapons played an important role in the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region that represented Moscow's biggest military defeat since it was forced to withdraw its troops from Kyiv after a botched attempt to seize the Ukrainian capital early in the war. It raised the prospect of more battlefield successes for Ukraine, which has vowed to reclaim control over all Russian-occupied territories, including the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014.

Ukraine's success has been a humiliating blow to Putin, who has cast the campaign as a special military operation and has tried to win it with a limited contingent of volunteer troops. Western estimates put Russia's invading force at about 200,000 at the start of the war, and it has suffered heavy losses in seven months of fighting. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace recently put Russian losses at over 25,000 dead.

While Ukraine has declared a sweeping mobilization with a goal of forming a 1 million-member military, the Kremlin so far has tried to avoid the unpopular move, recruiting volunteer soldiers and even prisoners. Hawkish circles in Moscow long have pushed for a mobilization, arguing it's impossible to fend off Ukraine's assaults along a 1,000-kilometer (over 500-mile) front line with the currently outnumbered Russian force.

The mobilization that Putin declared Wednesday is the first such move in Russia since World War II. The Soviet Union used a draft to fight its 10-year war in Afghanistan, and Russia also relied on conscripts during the two wars in Chechnya in the 1990s and early 2000s.

While Putin and his defense minister promised only a partial mobilization aimed at calling up about 300,000 reservists with previous military service, analysts say the move will severely strain the corrupt and inefficient government system and fuel instability that would threaten Putin's hold on power.

The mobilization order immediately triggered protests in Moscow and other cities that were quickly disbanded by police who detained hundreds of demonstrators.

Kirill Rogov, an independent political analyst, described the mobilization order as an explosive mixture of madness, incompetence and despair. He noted that Putin risks losing support from the bulk of the Russian public that until now has seen the war as a distant and limited development.

Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment noted the mobilization has broken Putins pact with his political base that expected him to deliver stability and a vision of Russian grandeur without the need for personal sacrifice.

Now sacrifice is required, and its a violation of the past unwritten agreements that would trigger more repressions, Baunov wrote.

He noted that Putins move to annex Russia-controlled regions amounts to a warning: You dared to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia, or more precisely, what we call such.

In a Feb. 24 speech announcing the invasion, Putin already brandished the nuclear sword, threatening any foreign country attempting to interfere with consequences you have never seen.

The latest threat underlined the Russian leader's dogged determination to safeguard Russian gains even at the risk of a nuclear escalation.

Putin's previous statements about all-out nuclear conflict have been delivered with frightening nonchalance.

Talking about Russian strategy at a 2018 meeting of international foreign policy experts, Putin acknowledged that a nuclear exchange "would naturally mean a global catastrophe, but he promised that Russia will not strike first.

And he added with a smirk: We would be victims of an aggression and would get to heaven as martyrs and they will just croak and not even have time to repent.

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Cornered by war, Putin makes another nuclear threat

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial military mobilization in Russia, putting the country's people and economy on a wartime footing as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine continues.

In a rare prerecorded televised announcement, Putin said the West "wants to destroy our country" and claimed the West had tried to "turn Ukraine's people into cannon fodder," in comments translated by Reuters, repeating earlier claims in which he has blamed Western nations for starting a proxy war with Russia.

Putin said "mobilization events" would begin Wednesday without providing further details, aside from saying he had ordered an increase in funding to boost Russia's weapons production, having committed (and lost) a large amount of weaponry during the conflict, which began in late February.

A partial mobilization is a hazy concept, but it could mean that Russian businesses and citizens have to contribute more to the war effort. Russia has not yet declared war on Ukraine, despite having invaded in February, and it calls its invasion a "special military operation."

Putin confirmed that military reservists would be called up into active service, but insisted a wider conscription of Russian men of fighting age was not taking place.

"I reiterate, we are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience. Conscripts will obligatorily go through additional military training based on the experience of the special military operation before departing to the units," he said according to an Associated Press translation.

In what was immediately greeted as an escalatory address, Putin also accused the West of engaging in nuclear blackmail against Russia and warned again that the country had "lots of weapons to reply" to what he said were Western threats adding that he was not bluffing.

Putin has alluded to Russia's nuclear weaponry at various points during the conflict with Ukraine but there are doubts over whether Moscow would actually resort to deploying such a weapon, with analysts saying it could be tantamount to starting a third world war.

China's Foreign Ministry called on all parties to engage in dialogue to find a way to address their security concerns, while British Foreign Office Minister Gillian Keegan told Sky News that Putin's comments should not be taken lightly.

"Clearly it's something that we should take very seriously because, you know, we're not in control I'm not sure he's in control either, really. This is obviously an escalation," she said.

Financial markets reacted negatively to Putin's comments with oil prices spiking more than 2% and the Russian ruble slumping around 2.6% against the dollar.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu added more detail on the partial mobilization Wednesday morning, saying it would see 300,000 additional personnel called up to serve in the military campaign in Ukraine.

In an interview with Russian state television, Shoigu said that students and those who served as conscripts would not be called up, and that the majority of Russia's reserves would not be drafted, Reuters reported.

Putin's comments come as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began in late February, approaches the winter period with momentum appearing to be on Ukraine's side after it launched lightning counteroffensives in the northeast and south to reclaim lost territory.

Speculation mounted Tuesday that Putin could be about to announce a full or partial mobilization of the Russian economy and society, paving the way for possible conscription of Russian men of fighting age, after Moscow-installed officials in occupied areas of Ukraine announced plans to stage immediate referendums on joining Russia.

The votes set to take place in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia this weekend and with the results widely expected to be rigged in favor of joining Russia would enable the Kremlin to claim, albeit falsely, that it was "defending" its own territory and citizens, and that will require more manpower.

Putin said Wednesday that Russia supported the referendums and said that the decision to partially mobilize was "fully adequate to the threats we face, namely to protect our homeland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to ensure the security of our people and people in the liberated territories."

Plans to hold such votes were widely condemned by Ukraine and its Western allies who said they would not recognize the ballots and efforts to annex more of Ukraine, as Russia did with Crimea in 2014.

Putin on Wednesday repeated earlier claims from Moscow that Russia's aim is to "liberate" the Donbas, a region in eastern Ukraine in which there are two self-proclaimed, pro-Russian republics, and said he had ordered the government to give legal status to volunteers fighting in the Donbas, Reuters reported.

Morale is believed to be low among Russian troops fighting in Ukraine and on Tuesday the Russian Duma, the country's parliament, voted to tighten up Russia's criminal code around military service including increasing the punishment for desertion and other "crimes committed in conditions of mobilization, martial law, armed conflicts and hostilities."

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The U.K.'s Ministry of Defense commented Wednesday on Twitter that this move was likely intended to limit the number of refusals to fight, and designed to mitigate some of the immediate personnel "pressures."

Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said Wednesday that "a partial mobilisation will make little difference on the battlefield in the near term. And how is Putin going to arm these 300,000 new troops when he is struggling to re-equip forces already being pushed into the meat grinder in Ukraine?" Ash wrote in emailed comments.

Ash added he believed "the partial mobilisation plus the announcement of referendum in occupied territories are meant more for external consumption, for Ukraine and its Western allies to signal that Putin is still in this for the longer haul, but that he wants to negotiate."

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Russia-Ukraine war: Putin announces partial military mobilization

LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two and backed a plan to annex swathes of Ukraine, warning the West he was not bluffing when he said he'd be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.

In the biggest escalation of the Ukraine war since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion, Putin explicitly raised the spectre of a nuclear conflict, approved a plan to annex a chunk of Ukraine the size of Hungary, and called up 300,000 reservists.

"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people - this is not a bluff," Putin said in a televised address to the nation.

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Citing NATO expansion towards Russia's borders, Putin said the West was plotting to destroy his country, engaging in "nuclear blackmail" by allegedly discussing the potential use of nuclear weapons against Moscow, and accused the United States, the European Union and Britain of encouraging Ukraine to push military operations into Russia itself.

"In its aggressive anti-Russian policy, the West has crossed every line," Putin said. "This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them."

The address, which followed a critical Russian battlefield defeat in northeastern Ukraine, fuelled speculation about the course of the war, the 69-year-old Kremlin chief's own future, and showed Putin was doubling down on what he calls his "special military operation" in Ukraine.

In essence, Putin is betting that by increasing the risk of a direct confrontation between the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and Russia -- a step towards World War Three -- the West will blink over its support for Ukraine, something it has shown no sign of doing so far.

Putin's war in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands, unleashed an inflationary wave through the global economy and triggered the worst confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when many feared nuclear war imminent.

Putin signed a decree on partially mobilising Russia's reserves, arguing that Russian soldiers were effectively facing the full force of the "collective West" which has been supplying Kyiv's forces with advanced weapons, training and intelligence.

Speaking shortly after Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia would draft some 300,000 additional personnel out of some 25 million potential fighters at Moscow's disposal.

The mobilisation, the first since the Soviet Union battled Nazi Germany in World War Two, begins immediately.

Such a move is risky for Putin, who has so far tried to preserve a semblance of peace in the capital and other major cities where support for the war is lower than in the provinces.

Ever since Putin was handed the nuclear briefcase by Boris Yeltsin on the last day of 1999, his overriding priority has been to restore at least some of the great power status which Moscow lost when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Putin has repeatedly railed against the United States for driving NATO's eastward expansion, especially its courting of ex-Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia which Russia regards as part of its own sphere of influence, an idea both nations reject.

Putin said that top government officials in several unnamed "leading" NATO countries had spoken of potentially using nuclear weapons against Russia.

He also accused the West of risking "nuclear catastrophe," by allowing Ukraine to shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which is under Russian control, something Kyiv has denied.

Putin gave his explicit support to referendums that will be held in coming days in swathes of Ukraine controlled by Russian troops -- the first step to formal annexation of a chunk of Ukraine the size of Hungary.

The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Putin recognised as independent just before the invasion, and Russian-installed officials in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have asked for votes.

"We will support the decision on their future, which will be made by the majority of residents in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson," Putin said.

"We cannot, have no moral right to hand over people close to us to the executioners, we cannot but respond to their sincere desire to determine their own fate."

That paves the way for the formal annexation of about 15% of Ukrainian territory.

The West and Ukraine have condemned the referendum plan as an illegal sham and vowed never to accept its results. French President Emmanuel Macron said the plans were "a parody." Kyiv has denied persecuting ethnic Russians or Russian-speakers.

But by formally annexing Ukrainian territories, Putin is giving himself the potential pretext to use nuclear weapons from Russia's arsenal, the largest in the world.

Russia's nuclear doctrine allows the use of such weapons if weapons of mass destruction are used against it or if the Russian state faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.

"It is in our historical tradition, in the fate of our people, to stop those striving for world domination, who threaten the dismemberment and enslavement of our Motherland, our Fatherland," Putin said.

"We will do it now, and it will be so," said Putin. "I believe in your support."

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Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Andrew Osborn

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Putin escalates Ukraine war, issues nuclear threat to West

President Putin has accused the West of engaging in "nuclear blackmail" and warned he has "lots of weapons to reply" as he called up 300,000 more troops to the Ukraine war.

In a rare address to the nation, he said he wasn't bluffing and would use "all the means available to us" if Russian territory was threatened.

Mr Putin ordered a "partial mobilisation" of military reserves - a move that Russia's defence minister said amounted to around 300,000 troops.

Putin orders 'partial mobilisation' in Ukraine - live updates

It means people with previous military experience will join the war unless they are too old or medically unfit.

The decree, published on the Kremlin website, said they would get extra training before being sent to fight.

"Now they (the West) are talking about nuclear blackmail," said the Russian leader on Wednesday morning.

He cited claims of Ukraine shelling the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and said some representatives of NATO states had raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Russia.

He warned them his country "has various weapons of destruction, and with regard to certain components they're even more modern than NATO ones".

"If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and for protecting our people, we will certainly use all the means available to us - and I'm not bluffing," said President Putin.

He also approved referendums in four Ukrainian regions under Russian occupation.

Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia announced the plans on Tuesday.

They are scheduled to take place from 23 to 27 September. Together, the regions make up about 15% of Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has dismissed the plans, saying: "The Russians can do whatever they want. It will not change anything."

The UK Ministry of Defence said the referendums were probably "driven by fears of imminent Ukrainian attack and an expectation of greater security after formally becoming part of Russia".

Mr Putin's speech comes after Ukraine recaptured large swathes of territory in recent weeks.

Putin in 'alternative reality'

President Putin's speech is pretty much in line with the paranoia that we've seen from him.

I asked him a question at the annual press conference before Christmas and he talked all about how the West was trying to attack Russia, and he's still got that same persecution complex in his mind - it's always 'it's not us, it's them'.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine, but as far as Putin is concerned, the message he wants to give his people is 'we were forced to do this - it's not really Ukraine's fault either, it's just the West using Ukraine to attack us'.

It's as though Vladimir Putin is living in this alternative reality where he believes the West is out to destroy Russia.

He said that very explicitly in this speech at the start of the war. He said leaders in Washington, London, and Brussels had plans to move military action from Ukraine to Russian territory and absolutely annihilate Russia, and this is his justification to his people for doing what he's doing.

Sometimes you wonder if this is an elaborate ruse to convince them that what he's doing is necessary or whether he actually believes it; and I do believe that he does believe it, and a large proportion of his people believe it.

Reserve call-up an 'admission of failure'

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the president's call-up of reserves had broken one of his own promises and was an "admission that his invasion is failing".

He tweeted that the president had "sent tens of thousands" of Russians to their death and "no amount of threats and propaganda can hide the fact that Ukraine is winning this war".

Russia's defence minister Sergei Shoigu said today that 5,937 troops had been killed in the war - only the second time the country has given such an update.

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This is much lower than the 40,000+ quoted by Ukraine and the 15,000 estimate given by the UK and US in July.

Read more:What nuclear weapons does Russia have and what damage could they cause?Is Ukraine getting the upper hand in the arms race with Russia?Why Ukraine's southern offensive is more difficult than northern blitzkrieg

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In his speech, President Putin again called Ukrainian forces "neo-Nazis" and accused them of carrying out "acts of terror".

Foreign Office minister Gillian Keegan told Sky News that Mr Putin's nuclear threat was something to "take very seriously".

"This is obviously an escalation," she said.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Russia's mobilisation was "an act of desperation".

He tweeted: "Russia cannot win this criminal war. Right from the start, Putin completely underestimated the situation - the will to resist of Ukraine and the unity of their friends."

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte called it "a sign of panic" from the president.

"His rhetoric on nuclear weapons is something we have heard many times before, and it leaves us cold," said Mr Rutte.

"It is all part of the rhetoric we know. I would advise to remain calm."

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Putin warns West he isn't bluffing and Russia has 'lots of weapons ...

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of reservists Wednesday to bolster his forces in Ukraine, a deeply unpopular move that sparked rare protests across the country and led to almost 1,200 arrests.

The risky order follows humiliating setbacks for Putins troops nearly seven months after they invaded Ukraine. The first such call-up in Russia since World War II heightened tensions with Ukraines Western backers, who derided it as an act of weakness and desperation.

The move also sent some Russians scrambling to buy plane tickets to flee the country.

In his 14-minute nationally televised address, Putin also warned the West that he isnt bluffing about using everything at his disposal to protect Russia an apparent reference to his nuclear arsenal. He has previously rebuked NATO countries for supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Confronted with steep battlefield losses, expanding front lines and a conflict that has raged longer than expected, the Kremlin has struggled to replenish its troops in Ukraine, reportedly even resorting to widespread recruitment in prisons.

The total number of reservists to be called up could be as high as 300,000, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. However, Putins decree authorizing the partial mobilization, which took effect immediately, offered few details, raising suspicions that the draft could be broadened at any moment. Notably, one clause was kept secret.

Despite Russias harsh laws against criticizing the military and the war, protesters outraged by the mobilization overcame their fear of arrest to stage protests in cities across the country. Nearly 1,200 Russians were arrested in anti-war demonstrations in cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to the independent Russian human rights group OVD-Info.

Associated Press journalists in Moscow witnessed at least a dozen arrests in the first 15 minutes of a nighttime protest in the capital, with police in heavy body armor tackling demonstrators in front of shops, hauling some away as they chanted, No to war!

Im not afraid of anything. The most valuable thing that they can take from us is the life of our children. I wont give them life of my child, said one Muscovite, who declined to give her name.

Asked whether protesting would help, she said: It wont help, but its my civic duty to express my stance. No to war!

In Yekaterinburg, Russias fourth-largest city, police hauled onto buses some of the 40 protesters who were detained at an anti-war rally. One woman in a wheelchair shouted, referring to the Russian president: Goddamn bald-headed nut job. Hes going to drop a bomb on us, and were all still protecting him. Ive said enough.

The Vesna opposition movement called for protests, saying: Thousands of Russian men our fathers, brothers and husbands will be thrown into the meat grinder of the war. What will they be dying for? What will mothers and children be crying for?

The Moscow prosecutors office warned that organizing or participating in protests could lead to up to 15 years in prison. Authorities have issued similar warnings ahead of other protests. Wednesdays were the first nationwide anti-war protests since the fighting began in late February.

Other Russians responded by trying to leave the country, and flights out quickly became booked.

In Armenia, Sergey arrived with his 17-year-old son, saying they had prepared for such a scenario. Another Russian, Valery, said his wifes family lives in Kyiv, and mobilization is out of the question for him just for the moral aspect alone. Both men declined to give their last names.

The state communication watchdog Roskomnadzor warned media that access to their websites would be blocked for transmitting false information about the mobilization.

Residents in Ukraines second-largest city, Kharkiv, appeared despondent about the mobilization as they watched emergency workers clear debris from Russian rocket attacks on two apartment buildings.

You just dont know what to expect from him, said Kharkiv resident Olena Milevska, 66. But you do understand that its something personal for him.

In calling for the mobilization, Putin cited the length of the front line, which he said exceeds 1,000 kilometers (more than 620 miles). He also said Russia is effectively fighting the combined military might of Western countries.

Western leaders said the mobilization was in response to Russias recent battlefield losses.

President Joe Biden told the U.N. General Assembly that Putins new nuclear threats showed reckless disregard for Russias responsibilities as a signer of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Hours later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged world leaders at the gathering to strip Russia of its vote in international institutions and its U.N. Security Council veto, saying that aggressors need to be punished and isolated.

Speaking by video, Zelenskyy said his forces can return the Ukrainian flag to our entire territory. We can do it with the force of arms. But we need time.

Putin did not attend the meeting.

Following an emergency meeting of European Union foreign ministers Wednesday night, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell promised more sanctions on Russia over its escalation of the Ukraine conflict. He said he was certain there would be unanimous agreement for sanctioning both Russias economy and individual Russians.

Its clear that Putin is trying to destroy Ukraine. Hes trying to destroy the country by different means since hes failing militarily, Borrell said.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said the mobilization means the war is getting worse, deepening, and Putin is trying to involve as many people as possible. Its being done just to let one person keep his grip on personal power.

The partial mobilization order came two days before Russian-controlled regions in eastern and southern Ukraine plan to hold referendums on becoming part of Russia a move that could allow Moscow to escalate the war. The votes start Friday in the Luhansk, Kherson and partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

Foreign leaders are already calling the votes illegitimate and nonbinding. Zelenskyy said they were a sham and noise to distract the public.

Michael Kofman, head of Russian studies at the CNA think tank in Washington, said Putin has staked his regime on the war, and that annexation is a point of no return, as is mobilization to an extent.

Partial mobilization affects everybody. And everybody in Russia understands ... that they could be the next wave, and this is only the first wave, Kofman said.

Shoigu, Russias defense minister, said only some of those with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized. He said about 25 million people fit that criteria, but only about 1% of them will be mobilized.

It wasnt clear how many years of combat experience or what level of training soldiers must have to be mobilized. Another clause in the decree prevents most professional soldiers from terminating their contracts until after the partial mobilization.

Putins mobilization gambit could backfire by making the war unpopular at home and hurting his own standing. It also concedes Russias underlying military shortcomings.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive this month seized the military initiative from Russia and captured large areas in Ukraine from Russian forces.

The Russian mobilization is unlikely to produce any consequences on the battlefield for months because of a lack of training facilities and equipment.

Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said it seemed an act of desperation.

People will evade this mobilization in every possible way, bribe their way out of this mobilization, leave the country, he said.

He described the announcement as a huge personal blow to Russian citizens, who until recently (took part in the hostilities) with pleasure, sitting on their couches, (watching) TV. And now the war has come into their home.

In his address, Putin accused the West of engaging in nuclear blackmail and cited alleged statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia.

He did not elaborate.

When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal, Putin said.

In other developments, relatives of two U.S. military veterans who disappeared while fighting Russia with Ukrainian forces said they had been released after about three months in captivity. They were part of a swap arranged by Saudi Arabia of 10 prisoners from the U.S., Morocco, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Croatia.

And in another release, Ukraine announced early Thursday that it had won freedom from Russian custody of 215 Ukrainian and foreign citizens, including fighters who had defended a besieged steel plant in the city of Mariupol for months. Zelenskyy posted a video showing an official briefing him on the freeing of the citizens, in exchange for pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 others held by Ukraine.

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Yesica Fisch in Kharkiv contributed to this story.

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Putin orders partial military call-up, sparking protests | AP News

Assume that Russian czar Vladimir Putin has an ounce of ideology in him, that is, he is not in the job only for his own selfish interest, but he genuinely thinks that the West is decadent and evil, and that the Russian civilization can save mankind. In that case, he has a good reason to believe that he cannot really lose the war he started in Ukraine.

The reason is that even if his armies lose on the battlefield, as may very well happen, the Russian czar will have, in the meantime, pushed many Western governments to dramatically increase their own Caesarean powers. The European Commission has just put together a plan for redistributing the energy industrys excess profits to consumers and intermediate users of (natural) gasas Russian state crony Gasprom has cut nearly all its sales of that product to Europe. The plan will probably be adopted on September 30 when the Energy ministers meet. (See How the EU Intends to Collect Windfall Profits from Energy Firms, The Economist, September 15, 2022; EU Seeks to Raise $140 Billion Clawing Back Energy Profits, Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2022; and EU Targets 140bn from Windfall Taxes on Energy Companies, Financial Times, September 14, 2022.)

As the plan now stands, the government would seize part of the profits whose pursuit normally lead energy companies to risk investment losses in the hope of making excess profits in the future. It is as if the government capped the excess prices paid to producers, disincentivizing them from producing more. On the other hand, by using the confiscated profits to cap the consumers energy expenditures at what they now spend, it will encourages them to consume more than they would otherwise do. What is needed given the increased scarcity is exactly the contrary: more production now and in the future, and less consumption now. Furthermore, price caps on gas and electricity are already in force in some countries and may be tightened. A real planning mess! (Even the United Kingdom government, which some hoped had left the EU to pursue free-market policies, announced price controls on energy.)

The economic consequences will probably prove disastrous. Governments (the EU government and the national governments) will need correcting interventions in cascades, becoming more dirigiste as they try to solve problems they themselves created. The phenomenon is well known: as central planning fails, arguments are made that more central planning is needed. Energy czars, clean or dirty, will gain power in the bowels of Western Leviathans. Energy markets will be blamed as ripe with market failures.

All these are temporary emergency measures, the EU governments will say. But as usual, once the emergency is over, state power is very unlikely to retreat to its pre-emergency level. It will continue to grow, one emergency after another. (See Robert Higgs, Crisis and Leviathan [Oxford University Press, 1987].)

It is an error to think that the rule of law, individual rights, and political rights can long survive the demise of economic freedom. Milton Friedmans classic Capitalism and Freedom (University of Chicago Press, 1962), published 60 years ago, remains required reading on this issue. In order to protect their subjects from excess prices, politicians and bureaucrats will accumulate excess power over them. The West will go farther down the road to serfdom. It would be surprising if the US government did not follow. The West will be really decadent and evil. Whether by then the old Russian tyrant is still alive or not does not matter from our viewpoint.

I am not arguing that nothing should be done. I am arguing against central planning. The least bad solution in the circumstances (thus, the best one) would be to subsidize those households whose misery is deemed unacceptable or would break the European publics resistance to Putins imperial tyranny; and to let prices and profits play their signaling role of coordination without coercion, like in a free society. (See my recent EconLog post Efficient and Inefficient Rationing.)

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It Looks Like Putin Cannot Lose - Econlib

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech Wednesday at a ceremony. In separate remarks, Putin said Russia will mobilize additional troops to fight in Ukraine and he expressed support for referendums in parts of Ukraine on joining Russia. Ilya Pitalev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech Wednesday at a ceremony. In separate remarks, Putin said Russia will mobilize additional troops to fight in Ukraine and he expressed support for referendums in parts of Ukraine on joining Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already placed big bets on Ukraine.

He sent troops to storm the capital Kyiv in the first days of the war, only to have them retreat a month later. He wagered that the West and other countries would not act in such a swift and coordinated manner to isolate Russia.

Despite this track record, Putin's latest gamble may be his biggest yet. In the face of battlefield setbacks, the Russian leader has doubled down. Russia will mobilize 300,000 additional troops a number larger than the original invasion force and Moscow also appears poised to annex Ukrainian territory under its control.

To drive home his intentions, Putin made his announcement on Russian national television Wednesday, speaking just hours before President Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the United Nations.

"Washington, London and Brussels are openly urging Kyiv to bring the fight to Russian territory and defeat Moscow by any means," Putin said in a speech that portrayed Russia as a country under siege by "the collective West."

Putin's move addressed growing criticism from pro-war Russian nationalists at home, who say Russia is in danger of losing because it hasn't unleashed its full fighting force.

Yet Putin called it a "partial mobilization," and continues to call the conflict a "special military operation." This appears to be a nod toward Russians who have misgivings about the military adventure in Ukraine.

Putin's moves will need time to play out on the battlefield.

But the Russian leader is already facing a new wave of international criticism led by President Biden. In his remarks to the U.N., Biden described the conflict in Ukraine as a "war chosen by one man." He said Russia is "trying to extinguish Ukraine's right to exist" and is carrying out a large numbers of war crimes.

The U.S. president also said Putin was making "overt nuclear threats against Europe." This was a reference to Putin's remark that Russia has "various means of destruction." Putin has issued veiled nuclear warnings previously. Now, he says, "This is not a bluff."

In his remarks, Zelenskyy said, "A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand punishment."

"Ukraine wants peace, Europe wants peace, the world wants peace, and we have seen who is the only one who wants war," Zelenskkyy added. "There is only one entity among all U.N. member states, who would say now, if he could interrupt my speech, that he's happy with this war."

Moscow police officers detain a woman on Wednesday at a protest against the mobilization of up to 300,000 reserve troops to fight in Ukraine. Hundreds of protesters were arrested nationwide. Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Moscow police officers detain a woman on Wednesday at a protest against the mobilization of up to 300,000 reserve troops to fight in Ukraine. Hundreds of protesters were arrested nationwide.

Other Ukrainian officials say Putin is acting now because he knows he's in trouble and he wants to change the narrative, which has focused on Ukraine's military advances in recent weeks.

Putin's military announcement was accompanied by other risks as well.

The Russian leader expressed his support for choreographed referendums in four partially occupied regions in eastern and southern Ukraine to formally join the Russian Federation.

Putin's endorsement came just one day after the Russia-backed separatist leaders in Ukraine announced they would hold five days of voting that would get underway as soon as Friday.

In recent months, Moscow had worked to lay the groundwork for eventual annexation. Key Kremlin advisers were dispatched to oversee integration efforts through proxy governments. But as the fighting raged on, the voting was put off.

Even now, Russia and its separatist allies in Ukraine have not publicly addressed any of the obvious questions. For example, how is it possible to hold a credible ballot in the middle of a war zone, where much of the population has fled and daily life has been turned upside down?

Ukraine and its supporters have dismissed the entire exercise as a sham, and Western countries have already made clear there's no chance it will win international approval.

Ukraine says Russia is holding these referendums so it can formally declare the lands to be Russian territory and then argue that it is Ukraine that is attacking Russian lands.

"This is a cynical attempt in response to what is going on on the battlefield," Mykhailo Podolyak, a top Zelenskyy adviser, told NPR. "There's no legal basis for this. You can't have a referendum in a place that is currently under military occupation. This is to distract from Ukraine's effective counteroffensive."

From Russia's perspective, the referendums and annexation could be carried out quickly, while the mobilization of additional troops appeared an even greater challenge.

Almost immediately, Putin's announcement stirred debate over just who and how many would ultimately be called to serve.

Alexander Baunov, a senior Russian fellow at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, says Putin has essentially written an open ticket for his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

"Shoigu is saying he needs 300,000 people. Then it could be 100,000 more and then 100,000 more. So it's not a 'partial mobilization,' it's a gradual mobilization," Baunov said.

The move sparked protests in dozens of cities across Russia, as primarily younger Russians defied government warnings of criminal penalties.

By Wednesday night, police had made more than 1,300 arrests nationwide, including at least 500 in Moscow.

Meanwhile, Russia's parliament on Wednesday approved laws criminalizing desertion and voluntary surrender by Russian troops. The punishment can be up to 10 years in prison.

Yet many military analysts in the U.S. predicted the mobilization effort would not provide a quick solution for Russia's military problems.

They noted that many of the best Russian troops have not fared well in combat with Ukrainians over the past seven months, adding that the reservists have generally not had the same level of training or experience.

Also, sending fresh troops into battle is unlikely to make much of a difference if Russia can't solve other chronic military problems in Ukraine, including poor leadership, breakdowns in logistics, and the loss of large quantities of equipment.

Greg Myre is an NPR national security correspondent. Follow him @gregmyre1. NPR's Charles Maynes contributed to this report.

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Facing setbacks, Vladimir Putin makes his biggest gamble yet in Ukraine - NPR

Russian police officers block the street during an unsanctioned anti-war protest rally at Arbat street, on Sept. 21, 2022, in Moscow, Russia.

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More than 1,300 people have been arrested in Russia following President Vladimir Putin's call-up of extra forces to fight in Ukraine, according to independent human rights group OVD-Info.

Around 1,307 people were reportedly detained in 39 cities across the country as of Thursday morning, with the largest numbers arrested in the capital city of Moscow (at least 527) and St. Petersburg (at least 480).

Nearly 50 people were arrested in the country's fourth-largest city of Yekaterinburg, while dozens were also detained in several Siberian cities.

Prices of one-way flights out of Russia surged after Putin's announcement and images on social media appeared to show long queues at border posts.

Putin on Wednesday delivered a rare prerecorded televised address to order a partial militarization of reservists to bolster forces in Ukraine, a deeply unpopular move that sparked nationwide protests despite Russia's harsh laws against criticizing the military and the war in Ukraine.

Russia has not yet declared war on Ukraine, despite having invaded in February, and it calls its invasion a "special military operation."

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the mobilization of troops would see 300,000 additional personnel called up to serve in the military campaign in Ukraine.

An activist participates in an unsanctioned protest at Arbat Street Sept. 21, 2022 in Moscow, Russia. The sign plays on the word mobilization as "No burialization."

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Russia's Interior Ministry said servicemen of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs took "additional measures" to respond to the anti-war protests and to "ensure public order."

"Complications of the operational situation have been prevented," the ministry said in a statement.

"In a number of regions, attempts were made to carry out unauthorized actions, which gathered an extremely small number of participants. All of them were stopped, and the persons who committed offenses were detained and taken to the territorial police units for investigation and prosecution."

In what was widely interpreted as an escalatory address, Putin warned the West he was prepared to use all available means to protect Russian territory. His remarks were seen as a thinly veiled threat that he was prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Putin has alluded to Russia's nuclear weaponry at various points during the conflict with Ukraine. Still, there are doubts over whether Moscow would actually resort to deploying such a weapon, with analysts saying it could be equivalent to starting a third world war.

U.S. President Joe Biden condemned Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons and urged allied U.N. leaders to reject Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, Biden accused the Kremlin of making "reckless" and "irresponsible" threats and said, "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly said on Wednesday in an interview with Germany's Bild online television channel that he didn't believe the world would allow Putin to use nuclear weapons.

CNBC's Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

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Russia arrests over 1,300 as anti-war protests erupt over Putin's partial military call-up - CNBC