Monthly Archives: September 2022

The United Kingdoms next prime minister may be an even bigger Brexiteer than Boris Johnson.

Liz Truss, the former foreign secretary, won the Conservative Partys leadership contest, and on Tuesday, officially took over as the UKs prime minister, replacing Boris Johnson. Truss defeated Rishi Sunak in a race she was heavily favored to win, largely because she captivated the right-wing base of the Conservative Party, including its Euroskeptic wing.

How Truss achieved that is a somewhat remarkable political story. A former Liberal Democrat and Remain supporter, she fully embraced Brexit after the 2016 referendum, becoming one of its most ardent backers. As foreign secretary in Johnsons government, she shored up her Brexit credentials with her confrontational stance toward the European Union.

Her reinvention allowed her to ascend to the top of her party, and now the premiership. That rise says a lot about where the UKs Conservative Party (or Tory party) is right now: Even though the UK officially broke with Europe, Brexit has also ballooned into an entrenched domestic political and culture war issue. Truss is the embodiment of this, which also says a lot about how she may lead when it comes to the European Union, and beyond.

Practically, that may mean even thornier relations between the UK and the EU at a time when the United Kingdom and the rest of the continent are dealing with inflation and energy crises and an ongoing war in Ukraine.

A question that Liz Truss will basically have to face is: How far does she want to escalate with the EU? said Nicolai von Ondarza, EU/Europe research group leader at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. And for the EU side: How fast and how strong does one want to retaliate?

As the new British prime minister, Truss does have the opportunity for a reset, and given the economic and political challenges the UK is facing, it might make sense to attempt it. But Brussels, Paris, and Berlin are bracing for a rockier relationship. Because, as a Brexit latecomer, Truss may have even less room to maneuver than the guy shes replacing.

In 2016, Liz Truss warned of the perils of Brexit, saying leaving the EUs single market would mean industries, like food and drink, would face additional costs getting their products to market. In 2022, during her Conservative leadership campaign, she said she was wrong and I am prepared to admit I was wrong about her past stance.

And Conservative Party members, whose votes she needed to win the leadership race, believed her. (Even more wild, Sunak, the candidate she defeated, voted Leave.)

Truss is, to borrow a phrase from the tabloids, a born-again Brexiteer. She says she believes in Brexit now because disruption didnt happen, even though plenty of indicators show that those disruptions are very much happening.

Truss also used her tenure in government to build her Brexit bona fides. She served as International Trade Secretary in Johnsons government, the public face of Britains post-Brexit efforts to secure trade deals all over the world. In 2021, she took on the high-profile job of foreign secretary, where she oversaw the post-Brexit portfolio with the EU.

Trusss appointment last year came with some hope that she might be a bit more pragmatic and less ideological on Brexit. But she largely maintained a hardline approach when dealing with the EU, especially on issues relating to Northern Ireland, the eternal sticking point of Brexit.

Truss was one of the main architects of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill that, if it becomes law, would unilaterally rewrite sections of the Brexit deal the UK itself negotiated. Truss is committed to seeing that bill through as prime minister, even as the EU and UK are already in a legal battle over the implementation of the deal. During her campaign, Truss also promised to scratch all remaining EU law by 2023.

As von Ondarza said, sometimes converts display the strongest faith.

Kevin Featherstone, a professorial research fellow in the European Institute at the London School of Economics, said that toughness on the EU has transcended actual policy goals and is now a culture war issue. To go after bureaucrats in Brussels is to shore up your populist appeal. Being anti-EU is a vibe, whatever the policy stakes and fallout.

Truss channels the zeal of the party on this and on other key issues of the Tory base: free markets, deregulation, and a disdain for cultural wokeness.

While Boris Johnson was a leading figure in the Brexiteer camp, he had a wider appeal, whereas Liz Trusss power base is firmly within the hardcore Brexiteer part of the Parliamentary party, but also the wider Tory party and so she has to be much firmer on the EU, but also on other economic questions, von Ondarza said.

For that reason, she may not have as much political space to act, and may not have the domestic political capital to tamp down any tensions with the EU. Because Brexit isnt actually done, and it could further strain EU-UK relations.

Yes, yes, they said it was done! But Brexit was always going to create new issues as trade and travel between the UK and EU fundamentally changed.

The status of Northern Ireland remains a key source of tension. Just to recap: Northern Ireland is part of the UK, and so left the EU with it. But as part of the Good Friday Agreement, a peace deal that ended decades of sectarian conflict, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (which is part of the EU) is supposed to remain open and free from physical infrastructure. After Brexit, the UK left the EU institutions and was expected to diverge on trading rules, and so the UK and EU needed to figure out a way to conduct customs checks without undoing the peace deal and upsetting a politically sensitive border.

Johnson ultimately negotiated a Brexit deal that would mean some goods from the United Kingdom bound for Northern Ireland would have to undergo checks before they arrived there, over concerns they might end up in the EU single market. That is a source of tensions for unionists in Northern Ireland (who dont want much distance between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK) and for the Conservative government, who say the deal is creating this divide and complicating commerce within the country.

But the EU says the UK isnt implementing the deal as agreed, and has launched legal proceedings to get them to comply. The UK, meanwhile, with this Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, is threatening to tear up the entire agreement. Truss has also threatened to trigger a formal mechanism within the Brexit deal that can be invoked when serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist come up something the EU will be forced to respond to, if that happens.

Either way, its messy and could get messier, putting the UK and the EU on the path toward a possible trade war, even as the continent is already in crisis because of war and rising costs of food and fuel.

The Brexit deal isnt perfect, but this escalation is of a political making. The EU has said its willing to talk, but within the framework of original protocol; the UK has indicated it wants more radical changes. This is a problem which has to do with political culture, which is more winning, and less compromise, said Georg Boomgaarden, German ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2013. But if we let the experts sit down together, have pragmatic and practical solutions for where there is a real problem, most of the problems Truss brought up are no problem at all.

The question is will the experts sit down and will Truss give them her blessing to do so? Featherstone and von Ondarza both mentioned the possibility of a Nixon goes to China moment, where Truss, bolstered by her win and the full-throated support of the Brexiteers, brokers a deal with the EU or appoints someone who will, and frames it as a victory over the EU, even if it involves some concessions along the way.

This would be a dream for Berlin, Paris, and Brussels, but the Nixon goes to China moment may be just that. Experts I spoke to were skeptical that Truss would use domestic political capital on a still-easy target the EU especially when the UK is dealing with plenty of crises at home, from inflation to labor strikes.

On issues like security, and on Ukraine, London and Brussels continue to cooperate. But Brexit remains largely stuck. Economic crises in both the UK and Europe might force the two sides to the negotiating table in earnest. That is the hope, at least, for the start of Trusss tenure. As Boomgaarden said, Europe has no interest in Britain being another crisis center. We need Britain, he said. And they may need Europe. But they may also need quite a lot of time until they acknowledge [it].

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Liz Truss, Brexit convert, is the UKs new prime minister - Vox.com

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, the architects of the landmark peace deal in Northern Ireland, have been working behind the scenes to try to get the UK and the EU back to the negotiating table over Brexit and the collapse of the Stormont government, it has been revealed.

The revelation comes as it emerged that the hard Brexiter Steve Baker has been appointed a minister in the Northern Ireland office, replacing Conor Burns, who has been moved to a ministerial role in the Department for International Trade.

South Belfast SDLP MP Claire Hanna said the appointment of Baker and fellow Brexiter Chris Heaton-Harris as as Northern Ireland secretary was an obnoxious European Research Group takeover. She said it raised serious questions about Liz Trusss policy direction.

Earlier on Wednesday, Burns had thanked Blair and Ahern for their support in the House of Commons. He revealed he had spent the summer north and south of the border in dozens of meetings with parties and civic representatives to try to break the double impasse over the Northern Ireland protocol and power-sharing, which the Democratic Unionist party has been boycotting since May.

I want to place on record, Mr Speaker, in the house today, my thanks to the former taoiseach Bertie Ahern and the former prime minister Tony Blair for their assistance in the work that I have done over the summer, he said.

Ahern and Blair continue to take a keen interest in Northern Ireland and are determined to make sure the fragile peace accord is not ruptured before the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Good Friday agreement next Easter.

The former taoiseach met Burns in Dublin recently and will meet the European Commission vice-president, Maro efovi, on Wednesday night on the sidelines of a roundtable discussion about Northern Ireland involving MEPs and representatives from all parties including Sinn Fin and the DUP.

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Some have suggested that Ahern should be appointed a special envoy to try to resolve the dispute over the protocol, with warnings that history will not forgive Irish or British leaders if the peace deal collapses.

However, one source said the Irish government had a neuralgia about jobs for former politicians in envoy positions.

Talks between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol have been paused since February when Russia invaded Ukraine, with the already strained relations deteriorating further in June when Liz Truss introduced a bill to enable the UK to unilaterally remove some of the Northern Ireland Brexit protocol.

Despite the risk of a retaliatory trade war if the bill becomes law, Burns believes there is room for a deal. Earlier this week, he advised Truss that there is an appetite to return to talks and have another go at negotiations.

Hopes of a thaw in UK-EU relations have also been fuelled by the absence of Lord Frost from Trusss new cabinet.

Burns told the house he had met efovi at the British Irish Association conference in Oxford at the weekend where he had constructive and prolonged talks.

I am convinced that if the appetite exists, we can find a way to a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland protocol, he told MPs.

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Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern working behind scenes in UK-EU Brexit deadlock - The Guardian

The EU is bracing itself for another tumultuous and bruising battle with the UK over Brexit, despite hopes and pleas for Liz Truss to be pragmatic and try to seal a deal on the protracted Northern Ireland issues.

No one is optimistic. We are in for a very bumpy few months, said one EU source.

The appointment of the firm Brexiters Chris Heaton-Harris to the role of Northern Ireland secretary and Steve Baker as Northern Ireland minister has filled some hardline unionists with hope that the protocol will be scrapped.

But some south of the border believe, even in the crossfire, a deal with the EU to alter, rather than scrap the protocol, can be done. And one Northern Ireland MP remarked that Heaton-Harris was smart and nobodys fool.

Boris Johnson sent a message to Dublin when he took over from Theresa May in 2019, delaying his first call to the then Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, in what some saw as a deliberate snub. When Johnson did call, he fell out with Varadkar by telling him Mays backstop solution to the Irish border question had to go.

Truss is unlikely to be so truculent. An early trip to Dublin is on the cards and the Northern Ireland minister has advised the new prime minister that talks should reopen.

But, like Johnson, Truss is likely to disappoint, telling Michel Martin she would not be resiling from the Northern Ireland protocol bill.

The outgoing and short-lived Northern Ireland secretary, Shailesh Vara, told the British Irish Association on Friday it would be an insurance policy, to allow the UK do what it liked if the EU did not concede.

Truss may also warn that article 16 will be triggered in the coming days.

Some say it will give Truss the political cover she needs to return to talks while keeping the gun loaded with the Northern Ireland protocol bill.

After all, article 16 is a dispute mechanism that results in talks. It requires the side invoking the mechanism to give a months notice and to outline the safeguard measures they plan to put in place to protect against the societal or economic damage allegedly caused by the protocol.

Talks must then begin to resolve the dispute, with a review after three months.

Yes. It could lead to an increase in hostilities. The UK may use it to suspend the entire protocol as a safeguard measure, in which case the EU will retaliate. It may also leave the government open to a judicial review questioning its grounds for triggering the clause, Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at Cambridge University, said.

Irish and EU leaders have already indicated they believe there is no legal ground for article 16, repeatedly rejecting the UKs argument that unilateral action is necessary, and may take countermeasures.

The European Commissions vice-president, Maro efovi, told the British Irish Association (BIA) on Friday that the UK had failed to engage with proposals the EU made in October, or the prospect of further compromises beyond those plans.

Truss has said the unilateral action is necessary as 18 months of talks have not produced a result. The EU has countered that talks were paused in February and that the UK had failed to engage before that point under Lord Frost.

efovi said: In short, they were dismissed without consideration. The UK has not even engaged in any meaningful discussions with us since February. He said the EU was prepared to go further, but the UK was not prepared to listen. They are not a take it or leave it offer, he added, saying the proposals had never been seriously picked up by my counterparts.

The bill cannot go before the House of Lords before mid-October and is unlikely to become law before next year, leaving wriggle room for the UK.

But its existence has fostered distrust, not only among EU leaders. There are concerns in the UK that it is being pushed through without proper exposition and scrutiny as it is a skeleton bill, short on detail, but long on potency.

There are huge Henry VIII powers in the bill that give the executive [government] vast discretion to do what it wants. At the moment, the bar is whether the secretary of state considers this appropriate, rather than what is necessary, said Barnard. This drives a coach and horses through the protocol.

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, told the British Irish Association conference in Oxford that the UK, which, he pointed out, came up with the protocol, would receive a generous response if it came back to the table for talks.

He indicated that Ireland would take its share of responsibility for patching things up. Relations between the Irish and British government are probably weaker than at any other moment, he added. Im very conscious that my government has to work to change that.

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EU braces for bruising battle with UK over Northern Ireland protocol - The Guardian

The EU has urged Liz Truss to respect the Brexit agreement, as it called on the incoming British prime minister to take a broader view of Britains relationship with Europe.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who is expected to speak to Truss by phone in the coming days, tweeted her congratulations, referring to common challenges, from climate change to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

She said: I look forward to a constructive relationship, in full respect of our agreements.

Maro efovi, the EUs top official in charge of relations with the UK, said a positive relationship between the two was of great strategic importance. I stand ready to work intensively and constructively with my new UK interlocutor to foster such a partnership, in full respect of our agreements.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, also congratulated Truss, stating that the British nation is our ally, a few weeks after Truss told Tory members at a hustings event in August that she was undecided as to whether he was friend or foe when asked.

Congratulations to Liz Truss on her election, Macron tweeted. The British people are our friends, the British nation is our ally. Let us continue working together to defend our shared interests.

Behind the scenes, EU officials have low expectations of an improvement in relations with Truss, the architect of a bill to override key aspects of the Northern Ireland protocol, which could lead to a trade war.

The wish on this side is for things to improve, for there to be a more constructive relationship, but I dont think anybody is holding their breath, an EU diplomat said.

The diplomat suggested that Trusss reliance on Eurosceptic MPs in the Conservative parliamentary party did not bode well for her ability to strike compromises. They added: Looking at where Liz Truss got her support I dont really expect her to have that much room for manoeuvre. But I would gladly be proved wrong.

Sources hope that once installed in No 10, Truss will take a different tack to EU relations.

Obviously the reservations that were there beforehand remain given that she was the foreign secretary that brought through the [Northern Ireland] bill before the summer, one EU diplomat said. From an EU perspective, there is always a window of opportunity with the new prime minister, because the EU will be open to talks and negotiations.

Nathalie Loiseau, a French MEP who co-chairs the EU UK parliamentary partnership assembly, said she wished Truss the best of luck because the success of the UK is important for its allies and neighbours. Loiseau, a former Europe minister, added: I hope she will refrain from making things more difficult between the EU and the UK and engage in a strong partnership.

David McAllister, a German centre-right MEP, who chairs the European parliaments foreign affairs committee, congratulated Truss, while pointing to the agreements the British government had signed. He said: The EU is keen to have stable and positive relations with the United Kingdom based on our agreements, mutually negotiated, signed and ratified by the EU and the UK. Facilitating the practical implementation of the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland is of key importance.

Outline of the new prime minister's schedule for the next few days

6 September 2022

Tuesday

Early morning flight to Aberdeen in preparation to meet the Queen.

Once Boris Johnson meets the Queen and departs Balmoral, Liz Truss will arrive to meet Her Majesty and be appointed as the UKs next prime minister.

Early afternoon: Truss leaves on flight back to London where she is likely to be briefed on national security matters.

Mid-afternoon: Truss arrives in Downing Street and makes her first speech as PM.

Late afternoon and early evening: PM begins making senior cabinet appointments, and holds meetings with civil service. Phone calls from world leaders.

7 September 2022

Wednesday

Morning: first cabinet meeting

Midday: first PMQs facing Keir Starmer

Afternoon: appointment of junior ministers and further briefings.

8 September 2022

Thursday

Truss to unveil plans to tackle rising energy bills

Thank you for your feedback.

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was one of the first leaders to offer his public congratulations, in a tweet that avoided mentioning the UK-EU dispute. He said: I am looking forward to our cooperation in these challenging times. The UK and Germany will continue to work closely together as partners and friends.

Truss, who will become prime minister on Tuesday, will be tested on her openness to work with the EU when she is invited to join European leaders for a summit in October. She will be invited to discuss the creation of the European Political Community, a pan-European body dedicated to promoting security and other ties among the nations of Europe.

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Her elevation to 10 Downing Street was given short shrift by the Kremlin, which said dire relations with Britain could get even worse. I wouldnt like to say that things can change for the worse, because its hard to imagine anything worse, the Kremlins spokesperson Dmitry Peskov replied when asked if Moscow expected any shift in relations with Britain, Reuters reported.

But unfortunately, this cannot be ruled out.

In Moscow, Truss is best known for her February meeting with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, who complained that her interventions were just slogans shouted from the tribunes.

In the meeting, which took place two weeks before the Russian invasion, Truss challenged Lavrov on the buildup of 100,000 troops on Ukraines border, which Moscow denied was preparation for an attack. She was also mocked by the Russian government for confusing Russian regions with Ukrainian territory and apparently mixing up the Black and Baltic Seas.

Truss received a warmer reaction from the UKs traditional allies. In a statement of congratulations, New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, referred to New Zealands exceptionally strong relationship with the United Kingdom based on our shared values, history and culture.

In her roles as trade and then foreign secretary, Truss was a staunch supporter of the UKs tilt to the Indo-Pacific and played a central role in advancing our historic free trade agreement Ardern said.

Gibraltars chief minister, Fabian Picardo, praised Trusss role in negotiations over the post-Brexit future of the British overseas territory, which voted to remain in the EU.

Liz was instrumental in delivering trade deals for Gibraltar and as foreign secretary we have worked very closely together on all issues, not least on the negotiations for a UK/EU treaty on Gibraltars future relationship with the EU, he said.

Additional reporting from Charlotte Graham-McLay in Wellington and Sam Jones in Madrid.

Originally posted here:

EU calls on Liz Truss to abide by Brexit deal - The Guardian

Huge areas of one of Britains biggest salad growing hubs will be replaced with housing estates, as growers give up in despair, and cash in their land.

The Lea Valley, also known as the cucumber capital and Britains salad bowl, is one of the diamonds of the UKs embattled horticultural sector. The Lea Valley Growers Association (LVGA), seeded through an area running across Greater London, Essex and Hertfordshire, comprises more than 180 hectares (450 acres) of glasshouses, run by 80 growers. The valley should be a jewel in the crown for a country concerned with homegrown industry and food security.

But hit by Brexit, a flawed Home Office plan for workers, and now rising energy prices, more than a third of the growers have applied for planning permission to knock down 60 hectares of greenhouses to replace them with housing estates, warehouses and small factories. Their applications have been granted.

Without government assistance for British food producers, the largest hub in the UKs glasshouse sector could face extinction within the next two years, said Lee Stiles, the LVGA secretary, to be concreted over by houses and industry.

The association has 80 growers and 450 acres of glasshouses, he said. Twenty growers have permission for housing, representing 100 acres, and another 10 have permission to develop their 50 acres for light industrial uses.

The Lea Valley needs 2,200 workers a year, and the companies were hit hard by Brexit. The seasonal workers scheme set up by the Home Office and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), which was meant to ease the problems, requires workers to return home after six months.

This means that, in a season which runs for 10 or 11 months, growers have to recruit twice the amount, and train workers twice, to do the same job, Stiles said. Our growers experienced a 40% shortfall in workers this year. The governments six-month rule results in many growers finishing with a completely different workforce than they started with, with some unable to complete the season due to a lack of workers.

Forty of them, representing 200 acres, havent planted this year, said Stiles. And another 10, who had 60 acres, have ceased trading.

Among them were four growers who previously cultivated one in every 20 lettuces eaten by British households. They have stopped growing them completely in the past two years, while others who grew 100m sweet peppers have this season been forced to cut their crop in half. Seventy-four-year-old Elvio Cipullo and his wife Luigia, aged 68, started their business growing salads leaves, cucumbers and herbs 52 years ago, and are now getting up at at 5.30am to try to make up for the shortfall in workers.

They will go down on their hands and knees to cut the parsley, says their son, 48-year-old Tony, who now runs the 11 acres of seven glasshouses. Its dirty work. But they know they have to do it.

All of the lettuce growers are in the process of selling their nurseries, Stiles said. It is pointless planting a crop if you are not confident of securing the labour to pick it as you will simply have it throw it all away.

They have also been harder hit than most industries by the huge rise in gas prices, because they have to heat greenhouses. The largest input costs for growers used to be labour followed by energy, Stiles said. Now it is energy followed by labour. Half of growers did not plant when vital supplies of gas for greenhouses soared from 30p a therm in January and has now hit 4 a therm.

In the 14 years I have been in this job, this is the worst I have ever seen. Ninety per cent of our members are family businesses, traditionally employing 2,500 people. We have only one large corporate.

The result of the government scheme, he said, was fewer British growers, lost jobs, more imported food, more food miles, an increased carbon footprint and greater climate damage. Horticultural growers in the EU receive state aid. We, of course, dont receive any EU money at all, he said. The UK has been losing large slices of its salads and vegetables market to producers in Spain and Morocco who dont have to use gas to heat greenhouses, and who are just four days by road from here.

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Growers received notification from George Eustice, the secretary of state at Defra, in late July that they must pay immigrant workers a minimum of 10.10 an hour. George Eustice had denied that the minimum wage would rise to 10.10 at the National Farmers Union conference in February, Stiles said, and then U-turned just weeks later.

That is higher than the national minimum wage, which the government is now enforcing under its seasonal workers scheme. But our growers also have to provide accommodation for them.

There could, however, be an even greater impact nationwide, said grower Tony Cipullo, who has four hectares of glasshouses in the Lea Valley.

A card-carrying Tory party member, who voted in the leadership election, he warned the next occupant of No 10: Its not going to be about people having to pay more this winter for their fresh food. If many more growers are forced to stop producing it, they are going to starve.

A spokesperson for Defra told the Guardian: We are aware of the challenges facing farmers from increased input costs, particularly energy, as well as their concerns regarding seasonal workers pay. Thats why we have brought forward 50% of the BPS payment to help farmers right now, on top of fuel duty and VAT cuts, and freezing the business rates multiplier to reduce bills.

We have already boosted the number of visas available through the seasonal workers route to 40,000 and amended the pay requirements earlier this year, removing the minimum annual salary requirement to give more certainty over costs and ensure farmers can access the workforce they need. We continue to keep these measures under review.

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Cucumber capital growers selling up as Brexit and energy crisis hits Britains vegetable industry - The Guardian

FollowingBoris Johnsonsdeparture from Downing Street, reports emerged that he and his wife Carrie Johnson put their 1.6million Camberwell,south London, home up for sale.

Mr and Mrs Johnson are reported to have selected as their post Downing Street home a five-bedroom house on the borders of neighbouring Dulwich Village.

The area is located in the constituency of Dulwich and West Norwood, which in the2016 Brexit referendumvoted to remain in the EU by an estimated 78 percent.

Dulwich and West Norwood has also never returned a Conservative MP to Parliament since its creation in 1997.

The constituency returned Labour MP Helen Hayes to Parliament in 2019 with 66 percent of the vote, while the Tory candidate was beaten into third place by the Greens.

A local resident told The i, who reported on Mr Johnsons move: I can see Carrie fitting right in.

Everyone with kids has a dog, were not far from Dulwich Park, but we all read The Guardian and voted against Brexit round here, I think Boris might feel like a fish out of water.

Freya Jackson, 29, an NHS worker, also told the outlet: The only reason Id like to see Boris around here is so I can tell him to his face what a t*** he is.

Another resident bemoaned the potential move, and said: All anyone will say when they hear I live in Herne Hill is that Boris lives there.

READ MORE:Brexit LIVE: Truss hits EU with double hammer blow in crunch talks

A former Tory minister told The i: He feels hard done by and the membership dont want to see him go.

There are plenty in the parliamentary party who think he should be finished. But we all know that is not Boriss style. He is one of lifes great opportunists.

And given the epic scale of the challenges his successor faces, it would be rash to write him off.

Polling from Savanta ComRes also found 60 percent of Conservative voters saw Mr Johnson as an asset to the party.

However, the pollsters also found more than half of all voters said the former Prime Minister should not be able to return to frontline politics.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph reported Mr Johnson could run as a MP in the Red Wall northern constituencies next election.

The outlet reported that senior Tory strategists have accepted Mr Johnson could lose his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat to a big campaigning effort by Labour.

The strategists fear ousting Mr Johnson would be as symbolic as when Nick Clegg was pushed out of Sheffield Hallam by Labour in 2017, and one idea is to find a seat in the north of England to allow him to rebuild his base.

One friend told the outlet: He might go for a Northern seat. He has not resigned as an MP. I would think he would not fight Uxbridge, and he would in a Northern seat, a big Brexit seat.

That could be the comeback for him, and he could do that before the next election. It is a great solution.

He feels an obligation to the Red Wall voters. He said at the last election I understand that you have lent me your votes in the Red Wall seats.

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Fish out of water Boris set to plot No10 comeback while living in Brexit-hating town - Express

7 September 2022, 14:00 | Updated: 7 September 2022, 15:31

James O'Brien's disbelieving reaction after Tory MP Steve Brine challenged the BBC boss over a reference to Brexit in EastEnders.

Speaking to the BBC Director General Tim Davie in front of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, the MP for Winchester and Chandler's Ford took umbrage over a scene in EastEnders where Brexit was likened to Covid.

According to Mr Brine, a self-confessed fan of the soap, took umbrage with a "get out of my pub moment."

Longstanding character and pub landlord Sharon Watts (ne Mitchell) told a pub-goer, "We've had Brexit and Covid, we don't need you here."

James was in utter disbelief: "This is Parliament! This is the House of Commons. The cost of living crisis is over there, energy bills over there.

"Someone's spiked my tea with magic mushrooms.

"How do you respond to that sort of gibberish? Eastenders, a storyline in a soap opera, conveyed the idea that a fictional character thought Brexit was a bad idea."

James imagined Mr Brine's thinking: "That's outrageous, so outrageous I'm going to dedicated time at the Select Committee for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport to tearing a strip off the Director General of the BBC about the professed opinion of a fictional character in a fictional pub!"

James played the BBC Director General's response: "Sharon is not the views of the BBC by the way, we can debate that at length. It's important you get drama from different perspectives, different writers all of that.

"I don't think - it depends on the context of that view and how it's offered - I think that is a different example."

James, almost speechless, reflected that the "Director General of the BBC had to say out loud in public to a serving politician 'Sharon Watts does not convey the views of the BBC'."

The MP also took exception to comedian Joe Lycett, whose appearance on Laura Keunssberg's new Sunday politics show, where he emphatically praised Liz Truss in a way considered deeply sarcastic, left some Conservatives and commentators ruffled.

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James O'Brien reacts as Tory MP slams Brexit mention in EastEnders - LBC

There is simply no subtlety to the UKs adventures in self-parody these days. Take the so-called Festival of Brexit and the criticism levelled at this 120m deceased elephant by everyone from appalled auditors on the culture select committee to visitors who somehow didnt enjoy being forced to sit through what they were being shown. Total fiasco, you say? Appalling waste of public money, you say? Completely different to what was promised, you say? Despite having been years in the planning, no one knew what it was actually supposed to look like, you say? The people who came up with it are blaming its failure on anyone but themselves, you say? I mean I mourn the time when a metaphor stole imperceptibly into the British consciousness instead of grabbing it by the lapels, shaking it like a rag doll and head-butting it in the nose while screaming, I AM A STONECOLD METAPHOR, OK PAL?

If you were one of the 67 million-odd UK citizens who missed this event over the summer, the Festival of Brexit was formally rebranded as Unboxed, given the ominously woolly aim of celebrating creativity in the UK, and has been running all round the country since late spring with a series of events that were this week laid bare with hilarious dryness in a quite majestic article in the House magazine. Any connection with what was once feared to be a jingoistic-sounding idea was actively shunned by the various organisers, and in many cases heroically undermined. Unfortunately, a hugely successful national moment did not ensue.

The many creative happenings seem largely to have run the gamut from the deranged and poorly executed to the deranged and poorly attended. Lowlights are too numerous to cover in full here, but special mention must be made of the unwatchable (and indeed unwatched) video content culled from some misconceived lamplight/drone event on the Norfolk Broads whose wildly expensive funding would arguably have been better handed to the disadvantaged women and victims of abuse who somehow found themselves participating in it.

Other standouts? At one leg of a strand called Tour de Moon, the reporter watched a deeply moving speech by a man in a wheelchair explaining how his life-changing fall had left him excluded from his passion for clubbing. This was immediately followed by a DJ shouting: Come on, everyone needs to stand up from their chairs for this next tune! Any number of quotes from people featured in the article could have found their way on to a sarcastic poster advertising the discreet charms of Unboxed. Nadine Dorries absolutely loved it. There were a lot of learning curves, euphemised the creator of the worlds first inflatable playground, which in practice proved physically unstable.

Unboxed was tilting at what its impresario called a stretch target of 66 million visitors. It got 238,000. The entire thing clocked in at 120m of taxpayers money, which strangely has yet to prompt a government minister to fume about how many nurses it could have paid for instead. (But of course, despite bringing pleasure to millions and occasionally billions, only footballers are judged by how many nurses or teachers they could have paid for.)

To put it in alternative terms, each visitor to one of Unboxeds many events could have been given 500 cash instead of being, for example, smashed over the head by kids toting inflatable moons, as happened at one malarial-sounding thing entitled Moon Games. Looked at in another way, Unboxed cost more than four times the money spent on the Platinum Jubilee. (Surely there could have been economies of scale with the latter event? At the very least, both could have featured hardline national treasure Joan Collins.)

The disowning by Brexiteers was under way before it had even begun. South Thanet MP Craig Mackinlay complained that not calling it the Festival of Brexit was a great opportunity missed. Like communism, which has simply yet to be done right. Or because all metaphors now have to be so sledgehammer as to result in head trauma like Brexit itself.

Looking back, were there any clues that Unboxed/the Festival-of-Brexit-as-was would be a complete turkey? Well, yes. Not least that from the get-go it was described as an excellent idea by Jacob Rees-Mogg. In Hollywood, youd lose your job if you greenlit a flop this big; I note Rees-Mogg is widely tipped to become business secretary under Liz Truss, the Conservative rights latest ridiculous and obviously terrible idea.

As for the ideas genesis, it was unveiled in Theresa Mays 2018 speech to the Conservative party conference. If youre a fan of how the best-laid schemes of mice and men gang aft to shit, do consider that this precise May speech was entitled Campaign 2022. This was a reference to the 2022 general election date she was apparently strategising brilliantly towards.

Anyway here we all are, in 2022. As you may recall, what with having been forced to live through it, we have suffered two prime ministerial defenestrations since 2018, and are now staring down the barrel of Trussonomics. Or the unlit uplands, as some are now calling them.

Even back when May debuted the plan, which she apparently envisaged as a celebration of national renewal, the Festival of Brexit proved a straight-to-meme idea, as did most of the other things said at that particular conference. To pluck some at random, Jeremy Hunt took the opportunity to compare the EU to Stalins Soviet Union for stop[ping] people leaving. Amazingly, he would end up being the sensible candidate in the next leadership contest.

Rees-Mogg himself was back then touting a supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Canada Brexit model to the party faithful, explaining: That is a word developed by a nanny, and nannies are jolly good things. Brexit will be a success, he added, because it is a Conservative thing to be doing. So yes: any idea that came out of the 2018 Conservative party conference should have had a concrete dome built over it, with all those operationally responsible gifted with a show trial and a restorative trip to the labour camps.

Instead, many of the architects are eyeing up seats around yet another cabinet table, while 120m is probably the smallest single sum wasted on their epochal vanity project thus far. As for Britains renewal, that is once again predicted to be just around the next corner.

And yet, is it? Despite the fact that a bizarre amount of journalism has now made itself about predicting events as opposed to reporting on them, I do aim to avoid any serious forecasts in my columns. But an internet search reveals that back in the day, I suggested that by the time the Festival of Brexit came around we would be pooling our corned beef and lightbulbs. A reminder that pretty much the only thing recent administrations have delivered on is making grimly facetious jokes come true.

Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist

What Just Happened?! by Marina Hyde (Guardian Faber, 18.99). To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at the Guardian Bookshop

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It would have been better for everyone if the festival of Brexit had stayed in its box - The Guardian