Monthly Archives: September 2022

Hurricane Fiona is expected to stay hundreds of miles from the South Carolina coast, but could bring strong ocean swells that may impact the Myrtle Beach area, officials say.

"The rough seas and surf will continue through at least Saturday, and swells could lessen starting Sunday; however conditions may remain dangerous through early next week. How long the threat will last will depend on Fiona's track and intensity later this week and beyond," according to a tropical alert from the S.C Department of Natural Resources.

Puerto Rico will continue to experience heavy rains and "catastrophic flooding" through Monday night,according to the National Hurricane Center.As the storm is forecast to move away from Puerto Rico, it is expected to strengthen as it heads toward Turks and Caicos on Tuesday, forecasters said.

Larger swells from Fiona are forecast to approach the Carolinas later Wednesday, according to SCDNR, causing coastal South Carolina beaches to become "dangerously rough," with a high risk of rip currents. Small craft advisories will likely be issued Wednesday night, SCDNR said. A higher risk of rip currents are expected Wednesday through Friday and high surf advisory conditions are possible Thursday and Friday, according to the National Weather Service.

Read NOAA's rip current safety tips here.

The weather on land throughout the Myrtle Beach area is expected to remain warm before a cold front moves through the area later this week, forecasters say.

Read more:

Hurricane Fiona expected to bring 'rough seas and surf' - Myhorrynews

Representative Image (iStock)Nikhil Kamath

There are, without a doubt, moments that leave an indelible mark on every generation. And these are the instances that give it shape and a definition for the coming generation to remember it by. The 70s had Woodstock, Beatlemania, and the moon landing as watershed movements. My generation has the internet, social media, and the birth of celebrity culture.

Unlimited access and high-volume exposure to celebrities' personal lives filtered down into society to shape the culture of the time. And it wasnt long before the market picked up on the fact that celebrity culture is inherently tied to consumer interests where celebrities transform their fame to become products for brands. But its as they say, all things (good or bad), must come to an end!

The name of the game today is conscious consumption. The global pandemic acted as a huge catalyst for the invisible walls between stardom and real to finally become tangible, as celebrities thrived and lived a life of luxury while it was the general populace that faced the brunt of the hardships brought on by the pandemic. As a result, consumers today are entering a phase of democratic media consumption where they choose what they listen to and who they trust. Gone are the days when a company could sell a product just because an A-list star is the one to promote it. People today are more likely to buy products or be influenced by people who have the factor of being like them. It is in these circumstances that the influencer marketing industry grew 40 per cent in 2021 and is estimated to increase its revenue from Rs 900 crore to Rs 1,200-1,300 crore in 2022!

Case in point

More and more brands are becoming cognizant of the fact that they are now marketing to a public that is more interested in an authentic cause rather than just being vehicles for mindless promotions. The famous Pepsi ad starring Kendall Jenner was withdrawn after a public outcry on the claims that it co-opted the imagery of protest movements. On the other hand, movements like the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge, Black Lives Matter protest and the #LoveWins campaign created impact and raised awareness because they were led by a genuine cause, championed by the right people. In the case of ALS, the campaign was able to raise $115 million for ALS organizations worldwide!

(The author is co-founder of True Beacon. Views expressed are personal.)

The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) pegs the social media influencer industry at USD 150 million (approx Rs 1,200 crore).

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Cast away: Surviving the high seas of the creator economy - ETBrandEquity

Boaters off the coast of Spain got quite the surreal sight Friday that might have looked like something from the mind of a Hollywood disaster flick director than Mother Nature: Four waterspouts spinning together in nearly the same spot. (Video courtesy: Anton Adanero Guinea)

MAJORCA, Spain Boaters off the coast of Spain got quite the surreal sight Friday that might have looked more like something from the mind of a Hollywood disaster flick director than Mother Nature: four waterspouts spinning together in nearly the same spot.

Anton Adanero Guinea was boating off the eastern side of the island of Majorca when the waterspouts formed amid somewhat stormy weather in the region.

LEARN: HOW TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WATERSPOUT AND A TORNADO

Waterspouts are, generally speaking, known as simply tornadoes that form over water, but there are two types of waterspouts -- one more dangerous than the other.

Four waterspouts spin off the Spanish island of Majorca on Sept. 16, 2022.

(Anton Adanero Guinea)

"Tornadic" waterspouts form from severe thunderstorms just like their tornado cousins. They can accompany strong winds, locally high seas, frequent lightning, and large hail, and thus can be dangerous to mariners suddenly caught in their path.

Then there are "fair weather" waterspouts, which form only over open water.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER ON TV

"They develop at the surface of the water and climb skyward associated with warm water temperatures and high humidity in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere," said Meteorologist Bruce B. Smith with the National Weather Service office in Gaylord, Michigan. "They are usually small, relatively brief, and less dangerous."

Despite the storms in that area of Spain, these appear to be the fair-weather version of waterspouts.

"Fair weather" or not, the National Weather Service recommends any boaters who spot a waterspout move at a 90-degree angle away from the waterspout's path.

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Watch: Not 1 but 4 waterspouts swirl in tandem off Spanish island - Fox Weather

A new report from an environmental nonprofit finds that Massachusetts' southern coast will see increased flooding and erosion, as well as more destructive bombardment from storms. The report,from theTrustees of Reservations, says that sea levels along the South Coast are projected to rise over two feet by 2050.

The Trustees is the largest private owner of coastal land in in Massachusetts, overseeing 120 miles of coastline. In 2020, after seeing increased flooding and erosion on their properties, the group began to produce annual reports on the current and expected effects of climate change on the Massachusetts coast.

Their first report looked at the North Shore;the 2021 report covered Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Gosnold; this year's focuses on the 14 South Coast towns that border Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay.

Like previous reports, the latest predicts big climate change impacts on these towns over the next few decades. Here are five takeaways:

After being battered by hurricanes in 1938, 1944 and 1954, engineers built a harbor barrierto protect the Port of New Bedford, the most prosperous seafood port in the country. The barrier keeps water in the harbor at a level that protects infrastructure from flooding; when a storm threatens high water, the Army Corps of Engineers closes the gates. In 2019, they closed the barrier 26 times. With projected 2050 sea level rise, they'll have to close the barrier at every high tide that means 1-2 times a day.

"That's clearly not doable for a working port, it's not sustainable," saidCynthia Dittbrenner, director of Coast and Natural Resources at the Trustees of Reservations.

The New Bedford Port Authority and the Town of Fairhaven are looking at ways to make critical infrastructure in the harbor more resilient to flooding, either by raising, moving or replacing it.

Over the next 30 years, sea levels along the South Coast are projected to rise over two feet. That means that over 25 miles of road and more than 1,400 buildings in the region will flood every day at high tide by 2050. Towns with low-lying critical infrastructure, like Fairhaven, Falmouth and Wareham, are especially vulnerable.

In several towns, low-lying neighborhoods vulnerable to flooding have a large number of low-income or minority residents, who may not have the money to constantly pump out their basements and replace their ruined furniture.

"Municipalities or regional planning associations really need to think about, how do we prioritize helping those communities that don't have the resources to do it on their own," saidDittbrenner.

The cities New Bedford and Fall River also have large environmental-justicepopulations groups that face increased environmental risks because of language barriers, race or income and while those residents aren't likely to get directly hit by flooding, their livelihoods could be. The Port of New Bedford, for instance, supportsabout 39,000 jobs and generates about $1.8 billion in total personal wages annually. If the port can't operate, those jobs go away.

The South Coast boasts 4,900 acres of salt marsh, which filter water, offer wildlife habitat and act as storm buffer to the communities behind them. But South Coast marshes tend to be smaller than others in the state, and are projected to disappear more quickly as they are inundated by rising seas. In addition, years of draining and ditching the marshes for agriculture and mosquito control have compressed the soil, so some marshes are also sinking.

"So at a time when we really want the marsh to be doing its natural thing of building sediment and building organic matter and getting higher to keep up with sea level rise, it's actually sinking," saidDittbrenner.

The report predicts that 23% of the salt marsh on the South Coast will vanish by 2050.

Other states are trying experimental methods like "mud motors" to strengthen marshes by adding sediment, but those aren't allowed in Massachusetts yet.

Some South Coast communities are starting to tiptoe towards the concept of "retreat" abandoning flood-prone residential areas for good. "Retreat is a real conversation the town is going to have to have, and it's not an easy decision when you're talking about people's homes," said Jennifer Lincoln, Falmouth Conservation Commission Administrator, in the report.

The Trustees and other environmental groups are supporting state legislation to create aFlood Risk Protection Program, which would buy properties at risk for flooding, tear them down, and instead of rebuilding, restore the land to marsh or beach that protects inland neighborhoods.

A critical component of any such law, saidDittbrenner, is ensuring that the buybacks are voluntary, and that most investments go to homeowners and renters who lack resources, especially those in environmental justice communities.

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Rising seas threaten Mass. South Coast and prosperous fishing port, report finds. Here are 5 takeaways - WBUR News

See originally posted USCG release

MIAMI The crew of the USCGC Legare (WMEC 912) offloaded approximately 24,700 pounds of cocaine and 3,892 pounds of marijuana, worth an estimated $475 million, Thursday at Base Miami Beach.

The drugs were interdicted in the international waters of the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean by crews from:

"I am proud of the crews continued devotion to duty that made this offload possible, said Cdr. Jeremy M. Greenwood, commanding officer of Legare. Through the coordinated efforts of the Legare, the LEDETs, HNLMS Groningen, CGC James, and the USS Billings crews, we significantly contributed to the counter-drug mission and the dismantling of transnational criminal organizations. The drugs seized through this coordinated effort will result in significantly fewer drug-related overdoses.

The fight against drug cartels in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean, and the transnational criminal organizations they are associated with, requires a unity of effort in all phases; from detection and monitoring to interdiction and apprehension, and on to criminal prosecutions by international partners and U.S. Attorneys Offices in districts across the nation.

Detecting and interdicting illegal drug traffickers on the high seas involves significant interagency and international coordination. The Joint Interagency Task Force South in Key West, Florida conducts detection and monitoring of aerial and maritime transit of illegal drugs. Maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity in the Caribbean Sea is coordinated by the Seventh Coast Guard District, headquartered in Miami. The Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard also coordinates maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity with deployed Royal Netherlands Navy ships and their embarked Dutch Fleet Marine Corps squadrons and U.S. Coast Guard LEDETs in the Eastern Caribbean Sea near the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. Maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean is coordinated by the Eleventh Coast Guard District, headquartered in Alameda, California. The U.S. Navy and allied foreign ships conduct law enforcement missions under the authority of embarked Coast Guard LEDETs from Tactical Law Enforcement Teams based in Miami and San Diego.

The Legare is a 270-foot Famous-class medium endurance cutter stationed in Portsmouth, Virginia. Legare's missions include Law Enforcement, Search and Rescue, Protection of Living Marine Resources, Homeland Security and Defense Operations, international training, and humanitarian operations. Legare patrols the offshore waters from Maine to Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, the Eastern Pacific, and the Caribbean.

For information on how to join the U.S. Coast Guard, visit http://www.GoCoastGuard.com to learn more about active duty and reserve officer and enlisted opportunities. Information on how to apply to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy can be found at http://www.uscga.edu.

-USCG-

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Coast Guard offloads more than $475 million in illegal narcotics in Miami - U.S. Southern Command

Jacksonville, Fl. The Buresh Bottom Line: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

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WATCH Preparing for the Storm

WATCH The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center Survival Guide

LISTEN & WATCH Surviving the Storm - WOKV Radio & Action News Jax

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (cone of uncertainty) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

** No *inland* impacts expected from Fiona for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.... beaches to be affected by easterly swells, rough seas/surf & a high rip current risk mid through late week.... **

Atlantic Basin:

Tropical wave - 96-L was upgraded to tropical depression #7 Wed. morning then to tropical storm Fiona Wed. evening & to a hurricane Sun. morning with a Cat. 1 (85 mph winds) landfall Sunday afternoon about 3:20pm EDT along the southwest coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon followed by another landfall (Cat. 1/90 mph winds) early Mon. at 3:30am EDT along the coast of the Dominican Republic near Boca de Yuma. The hurricane strengthened into a Cat. 2 late Mon. with the eye becoming more clear & distinct.

Fiona has been battling a narrow - but significant - 30-40 mph - band of westerly shear to its immediate west & northwest but has still managed to organize. The strongest shear is now oriented north & east of the eye & Fiona will remain on the western edge of the westerly shear thereby allowing for further strengthening over very warm ocean water with high humidity. Upper level outflow has improved dramatically & all signs point to a powerful Cat. 3+ hurricane for much of the rest of this week. Of note - the center moving a little south of due west into the face of the shear - as was the case Wed./Thu. & parts of Fri. - has led to eventually powerful hurricanes that had a similar trend. And indeed Fiona will become become the first major (Cat. 3+) hurricane of the season for the Atlantic Basin. As Fiona moves away from the Caribbean, a sharper turn north will occur to near & just east of the SE Bahamian Islands Tue... then northeast to near Bermuda by Thu. night then a turn back north over the N. Atlantic.

FIONA SUMMARY/IMPACTS:

* Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands/nearby Caribbean islands: Improving weather & sea conditions through Tue.

* Most intense impacts for Hispaniola through Mon. night. Strongest winds will impact Dominican Republic along with flooding rains/mudslides... Haiti will escape most of the wind & rain.

* Impacts to the Southeast Bahamas through Tue. night, especially the Turks & Caicos Islands - strong winds, heavy rain & rough seas/surf though the most severe part of the hurricane will stay a little east.

* Impacts for Bermuda Thu. night/Fri. - wind/rain/rough seas/surf.

* Possible impacts for Nova Scotia this weekend (becoming large/strong post-tropical ocean storm)

* Increasing swells/seas/surf + dangerous rip currents for virtually all of the U.S. east coast during the upcoming week (but Fiona well offshore)

Forecast models briefly trended more west Thu. but have trended back east recently which is why one should not become too obsessed with individual model runs. Some of the real time aircraft dropsonde data was used Thu. in the 18Z (2pm) GFS model run *but not* in the 00Z (8pm) model run which is probably why the GFS had a hiccup in the 18Z Thu. run showing a track much more west. I bemoan when real time data is not consistently used within the models as it usually causes inconsistency within the models. Either use it with reach run as long as its available or dont use it at all. The good news is that Gulfstream G-IV research aircraft started consistently flying Sat. & will continue the next several days with the data gathered from the atmospheric environment in & around Fiona then can be used to initialize the GFS for each run. This has helped with better initial analysis for models at the beginning of the forecast cycle which would then - in theory - give more accurate output (forecast). Clustering & consistency of the models has improved dramatically keeping Fiona well east of the U.S. mainland. The GFS remains a little faster & bit more east than the European model... the UKMET appears remains out to lunch.

The steering influences for Fiona are distinct & pretty much locked in place in the form of an upper level trough moving to New England then the NW Atlantic while the Bermuda high is well to the east providing the distinct alleyway across the W. Atlantic for Fiona. The upper level trough should then capture Fiona by next weekend bending the transitioning to a post-tropical low to the north & northwest late in the week/next weekend which has implications for Nova Scotia as the low will remain a powerful ocean storm even after losing tropical characteristics.

Overall - once over the Southwest Atlantic - it looks like conditions (water temps., shear & moisture) will favor strengthening through midweek. There will still be some westerly shear, but Fiona will be moving with the shear + may aid from some mid & upper level ventilation courtesy the upper level trough to the NW Atlantic.

Another interesting forecasting tidbit... a typhoon over the W. Pacific is turning sharply to the north & northeast across Japan (track map at the bottom). This typhoon teleconnection might correlate rather well with Fiona over the W. Atlantic this week & the rather sharp turn north & - in time - northeast. This correlation is possible because of the upper level pattern - troughs (dips) & ridges (upside down Us) in the jet stream - that often (not always) mirror each basin (Pacific & Atlantic). See maps 6 & 7 below.

So to recap: Fiona is leaving the Caribbean ... there will be at least some impacts on some of the Bahamas Tue./Wed. - especially the Turks and Caicos Islands - followed by a move more north & - finally - north/northeast with a close pass to Bermuda late Thu. into Fri. morning. Then there will be the bend back to the north or even a little northwest over the N & NW Atlantic late in the week.

Elsewhere... a couple of active tropical waves are over the Central/Eastern Atlantic with at least some potential for development.

(1) A weak low/tropical wave over the Central Atlantic far to the east of Bermuda & southwest of the Azores will move more north so no chance to move across the Atlantic.

(2) A more southern latitude wave that moved off of Africa late last week is now a little more than half way between Africa & the Caribbean at a much lower latitude than predecessors. Both the GFS & European global models have latched onto this wave now with potential development over the Caribbean by the weekend. Its possible the wave/disturbance will enter the Gulf of Mexico thereafter but most likely not until at least the middle to end of next week. Models had been mostly ignoring this wave over the last several days, but this is a wave to keep a close eye on over the next week to 10 days.

Spaghetti plots including the ensemble (faint lines showing all the model runs which gives an indication of uncertainty):

The alleyway for Fiona is well established as the Bermuda high shifts east & a series of upper level troughs move to the U.S. east coast & NW Atlantic:

Mountainous terrain over especially the Central & Western portions of Hispaniola with some peaks 10,000+ feet. Fiona missed the highest mountains:

The upper level (about 30,000 feet) teleconnection with troughs & ridges between the Atlantic (steering Fiona) & the Pacific (steering W. Pacific typhoons):

Despite the eye of Fiona moving away, very heavy rain bands well to the east of the center are still streaming northward across Puerto Rico where rainfall totals will exceed 2 feet on some parts of the islands!:

Water vapor loop shows some dry air near wave 96-L, but its more moist than past days:

A zone of shear - on the order of 20-30+ mph - remains east/west just north of Fiona. Forecast models gradually take Fiona to the edge then west of the strongest shear.

Sunday morning:

Friday night recon mission:

Thursday recon mission:

97-L:

September origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes wanna be waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, weve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... Gaston is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in 18... Dorian in 19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in 20 & Ida in 21]). In fact, this years list of names is rather infamous with Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan retired from the 04 list (all hit Fl.) & Matthew was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

See the article here:

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Powerful Fiona brushing by SE Bahamas - ActionNewsJax.com

I grew up on the shores of Lake Erie. From a very early age my parents enjoyed boating. Their passion grew from a small (24 wood boat) to larger, pleasure boats (41) as I got older. Nothing made my late father any happier than being out on the water in his boat.

I have such fond memories of being on the boat on nice summer days cruising on the lake with endless sunshine and the wind in my hair. We would go to one of the many islands, Canada, or another fun destination.

However, sometimes the lake was rough, and then it wasnt much fun. I remember getting sick from being tossed around from the rough seas, because

Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes.

As a result, it can get rough extremely quickly when the wind picks up.

I was on some very harrowing trips when the lake whipped up quickly and the lake grew ferocious by the minute. I recall transitions from calm summer fun to the tumultuous chaos of 6-to-10-foot waves taking only minutes.

These transitions resembled the 2022 stock and bond markets, especially when unfavorable news comes out.

This past week started off with a positive Monday. Then Tuesdays August date was released. Instead of the expected pullback in the monthly inflation numbers, the readings were slightly hotter. And the year-over-year inflation numbers stayed elevated at 8.3%.

The expectation was that the decline in energy prices (gasoline) would offset other inflationary prices. Energy has declined but food and rents continued to climb.

After the release of the data early Tuesday morning, the market turned negatively very quickly. Most analysts and market pundits were expecting to see the previous rate hikes begin to soften the rate of inflation. Their thesis was if we saw slower inflation numbers, the Fed would be inclined to pivot and raise rates in a smaller increment next week at their upcoming meeting. With the unexpected new data, all bets are now on that the Fed raises by at least 75 bp. Some economists, like Larry Summers (ex-Treasury Secretary) are insisting that the Fed should be even more aggressive and raise as much as 1.0%. That would be unprecedented.

The stock market went on a severe nosedive (worst since June 2020) and interest rates headed towards new highs (the and US Treasuries hit new highs, the did not)

The lingering inflation picture is captured below.

Then on Wednesday, the , which is the Feds more closely watched index, came out and backed up the higher inflation story from the previous day.

More negative news hit Thursday night when Fed Ex (NYSE:) conveyed to the world that a major slowdown was occurring worldwide, especially in China and Europe. Consumer Sentiment also came in disappointing on Friday morning and exacerbated an already dismal week of news.

Fox financial news anchor Charles Payne recently pointed out that if they were still doing the calculations based on the methodology from the 1970s-1980s, inflation would be around 16% right now. However, the government changed the way it calculates these inflation indices by using different weighting. See below:

It was a rough week in the stock and bond markets. The ended down 5.2% from last Friday, the was down 5.8% and the Small Cap () held up a bit better but still down -4.5%.

We dont know, but our indicators have been Risk Off for several weeks now. Several of our investment strategies (including Mish) are heavily invested in Cash.

As noted above, interest rates have been rising most of the year. In fact, for holders of Fixed Income (bond) funds including variations like Preferred Bonds, Convertibles, High Yield, and even Municipal bonds, 2022 has been a negative year. Historically, this is the worst year for what are typically referred to as conservative and low risk instruments. The returns range from down -6% to over - 15% for most of these bond funds. And for many Americans, these hold a sizable place in their overall portfolio and are supposed to provide the income they rely on. The double-edged sword is that most investors invested in these types of funds are not only losing principal, but the income they produce is less than inflation. Most pension plans are severely underfunded and will not be able to cover their obligations and could default in the next decade.

The Federal Reserve watches the yield curve closely. Today the 2-year US Treasury note is yielding approximately 2.78% and the 10-year US Treasury is yielding 2.44%. That means we have an inverted yield curve of approximately -34 basis points. This has always forecasted a coming recession.

Looking at other areas of the yield curve, we have not seen this big of an inversion between the 2 year and Treasury Yields since 2000. See below:

Are we already in a recession? Many economists believe so, but if we are not, we suspect we will be soon.

In these columns we have frequently discussed earnings contractions coming soon to US companies. This will be due to many factors, these include rising labor costs, health care costs, material costs, transportation, distribution costs and a potential (and real) slowdown of business due to demand destruction and non-affordability factors.

Thursday night Federal Express provided guidance that their business is slowing quite rapidly. They attribute much of their business weakness to China (again shutting down business due to Covid concerns) and Europe, already in a recession. Their concern for a global recession forthcoming (if not already) caused the stock to sell off by 22% on Friday.

FDX Daily Chart

At the beginning of 2022 Federal Express had a market capitalization of $70 billion and was (and is) a staple of American companies providing important shipping for the supply chain. Today this company is worth $40 billion and has seen 40% of its market capitalization evaporate overnight.

This may be one of many shoes to drop from corporate America. Below is a table of Yardeni Research estimates of earnings the remainder of the year as compared to a large universe Consensus Forecasts:

We want to provide you an easy way to calculate the fair value of the S&P 500 and where this market may go if it factors in these earnings estimates. Please note that a favorable Federal Reserve environment is when they are in an accommodating mode. This means keeping rates lower than inflation or lowering rates. This low cost of capital keeps earnings growing with PE multiples staying on the higher side (18-22x earnings typically).

When the Fed is in a non-accommodative mode, raising short-term rates and/or draining liquidity from the system, we would most likely see a contraction of earnings estimates. In that case, multiples would likely fall to a range from 12-16x earnings, or even much lower during recessions.

The chart above shows the Consensus Estimates of analysts and economists on Wall Street. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research does an excellent job of providing his detailed analysis. He shows a much smaller growth projection (3.1%) for the year 2022.

Doing the arithmetic, here are some high-low estimates for the S&P 500 value. Since the market is always looking ahead, this would most likely happen in the next month and certainly prior to the end of the year:

It is safe to say that if there are more companies, like Fed Ex, who will adjust their earnings estimates, we may see the lower side of the above estimates. If, however, we have a soft landing and growth picks up going into 2023, we could see the higher side of the ranges above. The Median of these estimates is about 3600 on the S&P 500 or where we were in June 2022.

On Friday, an important market support line was broken. Many analysts and market pundits have been conveying in their subscriber updates that the S&P at 3900 would likely hold and they felt that was an important point to watch for.

Like a hot knife going thru butter, the market pierced 3900 on Friday and closed below there (and below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages). Notice that support lines below:

We have long commented that when housing becomes unaffordable, it will have a dramatic effect on slowing the economy down further. Today, mortgage rates hit the highest they have been at since midmid-2008. Mortgage applications have basically stopped.

30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate

Affordability in housing is determined by ones pay (free cash flow), housing prices and the mortgage rates. Given the escalation of housing prices the past few years (up on average 20%-30% in most parts of the country), purchasing a new or upgraded house has become out of reach for many buyers. And as reported in the CPI numbers last Tuesday, rents have gone up to an average price of $2500 suggesting that now people cannot even afford to rent an apartment. This will further affect earnings of housing related companies and force more corporate revisions downward.

A few weeks back we shared with you that September can be a difficult month for the stock market. This is further amplified during midterm voting years. We want to remind you that beginning September 12 through the end of the month, this period can be a very volatile and choppy period.

Was it a coincidence that this past Tuesday (September 13) that the markets new leg down began?

Please invest carefully during this period.

5 Actions You Can Take for a Smoother Investment Ride Now

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5 Actions To Create A Smoother Ride Ahead Of Rough Seas - Investing.com