Monthly Archives: March 2022

USTRZYKI DOLNE, Poland Polish people know the pain of being invaded. This is what an opera singer told me as she handed out hot stew to Ukrainian refugees in a tent near the mountainous border between Ukraine and Poland on a chilly night in early March. She had planned to go skiing. She came here instead.

We were in the same situation in 1939, said Susan Grey, the opera singer, referring to the Polish people during World War II. We didnt have such an opportunity to be welcomed. We didnt have a place to go.

It feels as if the entire country of Poland has joined the effort to welcome Ukrainian refugees. I met software developers and chief executives who had taken time off work to drive supplies to the border. Hotels in Warsaw are offering free rooms, insurance companies free insurance. About 90 percent of Poles say that Poland should open its doors to Ukrainian refugees. Its a stunning contrast with 2015, when the pope himself couldnt persuade Poland to accept Syrians fleeing civil war. Just over three months ago, Polish police fired water cannons at Iraqi and Syrian asylum seekers to push them back into Belarus.

Polish people gave me many reasons that its different this time: Ukrainians are neighbors. They are Christians. They are fellow Slavs. But thats not the whole story. Before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Ukrainians faced discrimination and disrespect in Poland, where they tend to work in low-wage jobs, like driving cabs or picking apples. Now, the Ukrainian flag flies at the Warsaw City Hall, and the Ukrainian anthem rings out from St Marys Basilica in Krakow.

The way Polish people are acting, it feels like they are brothers and sisters, said Oleksandr Romashchenko, whom I met outside the U.S. embassy in Warsaw, where he held up a sign demanding a no-fly zone for Ukraine. He told me he moved to Poland from Kyiv a few years ago to follow his wife, who had gotten a job here. He hadnt always felt welcome. But true friends get to know each other during tough times, he said.

This crisis is fast becoming the largest humanitarian catastrophe in Europe since World War II, and Poland has opened its arms wide because these refugees arent fleeing a civil war in a faraway land. Theyre fleeing an invasion right next door.

For years, Poland has been among the loudest voices in Europe warning about the Russian threat while other countries, such as Germany, kept on doing business with Moscow. But now theres no point in saying I told you so. The only thing to do is project European unity and get ready for the tsunami of human suffering heading this way.

Warsaws mayor, Rafa Trzaskowski, told me in his office in Warsaw City Hall on Tuesday that the number of refugees was multiplying quickly. Three days earlier, 7,000 people had sought help from the citys welcome program, he said. Yesterday it was 20,000. Today it was 30,000. Vice President Kamala Harris visited the city this week, and pledged $53 million in new humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians impacted by war.

The first wave of refugees included many people with friends and relatives here. But many of the new arrivals dont know a soul. We have instances where the mother died and the father is fighting and he put his kids on a train and they arrive here, 12-year-olds, alone, Mr. Trzaskowski told me.

He hopes the good will in Poland will last. Already, Mr. Trzaskowski said he has gotten calls from Polish hosts who had offered their homes for a couple of days and are now asking, What can I do with these people?

Thanks to a recent court ruling, Mr. Trzaskowski has been able to commandeer an old Soviet-era building in Warsaw known as Spyville, which he intends to refurbish into housing for Ukrainian refugees. That will be great symbolism, but it will house only so many families. He has started looking at stadiums as temporary housing.

Europe is also bracing itself for a strong Russian disinformation campaign aimed at whipping up populist anger against the refugees in the communities where they settle. We will have to face this and the disruptive consequences, Katarzyna Peczynska, Polands former ambassador to Moscow, told me.

For now, daily life in Warsaw continues mostly as it was. People pick up their dry cleaning. They buy flowers. They check the news nervously. An art teacher in Warsaw, who spent her youth behind the Iron Curtain in Poland, told me that Polish people understood the nature of the Russian threat better than the people of Western Europe. As she watches the unthinkable happen in Ukraine, shes wondering if something unthinkable might happen here, too. Were not panicking, but were panicking, she said.

Nowhere is the connection between Ukraine and Poland more apparent than in Ustrzyki Dolne, a Polish village that was swallowed by the Soviet Union in 1939. Had it not been for a land swap in 1951, its residents would be Ukrainians, at war with Russia right now. Bartosz Romowicz, the 33-year-old mayor of Ustrzyki Dolne, has been eyeing the conflict next door since his election seven years ago. Back then, the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, over Crimea and two pro-Russian breakaway enclaves in Eastern Ukraine, simmered some 900 miles away. It felt distant enough for Mr. Romowicz to dream of starting an electric car project with his counterpart in the Ukrainian city of Boryslav, on the other side of the border. In December, Mr. Romowicz drove there to discuss the project. Today, he gets texts from his Ukrainian partner about shortages of food and medicine. He has delivered humanitarian supplies across the border.

Its a commonly held view here that Ukraine must prevail, against all odds. If Ukraine loses, Poland will likely have a brutal Russian occupation and possibly a raging insurgency on its border. Mr. Putin could turn his attention to the next bite hes going to take out of Europe.

This is the contradiction at the bottom of every conversation I seem to have in Poland. Everybody tells me how important it is for Ukraine to win; what a catastrophe it will be if the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is defeated. Hes fighting for the security of all of Europe, they say. Yet, at the same time, nobody seems to want to give Ukraine military assistance in this existential fight. To do so would put a target on Polands back, and drag NATO and the United States into a nuclear confrontation with Russia. This is the geopolitical reality that ties the hands of Poland, and renders the Polish people helpless bystanders to the killings next door.

Everybody is afraid of a third world war, Paulina Dudzic, a software programmer from Torun, told me.

She has no control over that. So she focuses on what she can do: making beds and soup for Ukrainian refugees at Jurkowa Wola, a cozy alpine lodge that is normally rented to cyclists and skiers. Her friend Beata Piatkowska, who owns the place, has relatives in Ukraine and canceled all tourist reservations to make room for families crossing the border.

Ever since, Paulina has played the role of social worker, babysitter and chef to a stream of brokenhearted people: A family with two cats and a turtle. Newlyweds who spent one night here together before the man went back to the front. A mother of two who drove 27 hours straight to get here, then sat shellshocked, pondering where to go next.

Paulina sprang into action. She called friends and secured a place for the mother to stay in Torun. Then she stole a few minutes of peace on a porch swing, resting up for the long night ahead.

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Opinion | Russia. Invasion. And Polands Very Long Memory. - The New York Times

Russian soldiers rest in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, in February 2000. Russia waged two wars against Chechnya from 1994 to 2000. In both wars, Russia heavily bombed Chechnya, flattening Grozny and causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths. Dmitry Belyakov/Associated Press hide caption

Russian soldiers rest in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, in February 2000. Russia waged two wars against Chechnya from 1994 to 2000. In both wars, Russia heavily bombed Chechnya, flattening Grozny and causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths.

Russia unleashes a heavy bombing campaign. Cities and towns are reduced to rubble. Thousands of civilians are killed.

Russia did this twice against fellow Russian citizens in Chechnya in the 1990s. That raises the question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the same playbook as he wages war in Ukraine today.

In Chechnya, a tiny Muslim republic in southern Russia with just 1.5 million people, resistance to Russian rule dates back at least two centuries. Rebels there began agitating for independence after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

After a couple of years of increasing tension, Russia unleashed a major invasion marked by relentless airstrikes and salvos of heavy artillery. Thousands of fighters and tens of thousands of Chechen civilians were killed. The Chechen capital, Grozny, was laid to waste.

Block after block, most every building was completely gutted. No other city had been so intensely bombed for decades. The devastation evoked those black-and-white photos of European cities pummeled in World War II.

Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Grozny, Chechnya, in March 2000, traveling in a Su-27 fighter jet after Russia recaptured the territory. AP hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Grozny, Chechnya, in March 2000, traveling in a Su-27 fighter jet after Russia recaptured the territory.

Russia waged the campaign for two years, with its powerful military trying and repeatedly failing to crush a small band of rebels. Remarkably, Russia lost.

President Boris Yeltsin's government in 1996 signed a peace treaty with Chechnya, removed all Russian troops from the territory and granted broad autonomy to Chechnya, though not formal independence.

But three years later, as Yeltsin was about to leave office, he named an obscure spy turned politician to be his prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Putin assumed that office on Aug. 9, 1999, and by the end of that month, Russia was waging a renewed bombing campaign against Chechen rebels in an attempt to reverse the earlier humiliation.

The second Chechen war was also brutal, though it proved more effective. Russian forces took control of the breakaway republic after just a few months.

In March 2000, a triumphant Putin, who had by this time become president, flew to Grozny in a Russian fighter jet. He emerged from the aircraft in a full pilot suit, to commemorate the victory.

Putin installed a Kremlin-friendly leader, Akhmad Kadyrov, to strengthen his hold of the territory. Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004, but his son, Ramzan Kadyrov, now rules Chechnya.

In the current battle in Ukraine, Chechen forces have been sent in to fight with the Russian military.

A Chechen man walks across a square at the Presidential Palace in Grozny in January 1996. Russia heavily bombed Chechnya during its 1994-96 war there. Russia lost that war and signed a peace treaty, agreeing to leave Chechnya and giving the territory autonomy, though not formal independence. Russia reinvaded Chechnya in 1999. Mindaugas Kulbis/Associated Press hide caption

A Chechen man walks across a square at the Presidential Palace in Grozny in January 1996. Russia heavily bombed Chechnya during its 1994-96 war there. Russia lost that war and signed a peace treaty, agreeing to leave Chechnya and giving the territory autonomy, though not formal independence. Russia reinvaded Chechnya in 1999.

Thomas de Waal, a journalist who covered Chechnya in the 1990s, said he sees many similarities between then and now.

"There are some pretty disturbing parallels," said de Waal, who's now in London with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The use of heavy artillery, the indiscriminate attacking of an urban center. They bring back some pretty terrible memories for those of us who covered the Chechnya war of the 1990s."

There are political parallels as well, he said.

"There was a project to restore Chechnya to Russian control, and nowadays in 2022, to restore Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence," said de Waal. "And there was no Plan B. Once the people started resisting, which came as a surprise in Chechnya and is coming as a surprise in Ukraine, there was no political Plan B about what to do with the resistance."

He said Putin was expecting little or no pushback, as happened when Russian troops quickly and bloodlessly seized Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Instead, Putin got Chechnya, 1994.

After more than two weeks of heavy fighting in Ukraine, the Russian invasion is moving far more slowly than planned.

With their superior firepower, Russian forces are closing in on Ukraine's cities. But the Ukrainians are still resisting fiercely and still hold the capital, Kyiv, and other large urban centers.

Meanwhile, the civilian toll is mounting.

"When Russia says that it is 'not waging war against civilians,' I call out the names of these murdered children first," Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska said in an open letter this past week. "Perhaps the most terrifying and devastating of this invasion are the child casualties."

At least 549 civilians have been killed and nearly 1,000 injured, according to the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The actual number could be much higher, according the office.

"Schools, hospitals, and kindergartens have been hit with hugely devastating consequences," the U.N. body said in a statement. "Civilians are being killed and maimed in what appear to be indiscriminate attacks, with Russian forces using explosive weapons with wide area effects in or near populated areas."

U.S. intelligence officials painted a bleak picture this past week, predicting that urban fighting in the coming weeks could be even more intense.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, testifying Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee, said, "Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down."

Greg Myre is an NPR national security correspondent who reported from Chechnya in the 1990s. Follow him on Twitter: @gregmyre1.

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Russia's wars in Chechnya offer a grim warning of what could be in Ukraine - NPR

Last week, more than a dozen religious and political leaders sat on the dais of the Ukrainian Orthodox Cathedral of Saint Volodymyr on the Upper West Side, listening to solemn prayers and fiery speeches denouncing Russia and extolling Ukrainian resistance to the invasion that began two weeks earlier.

They gave speeches, one by one: the leaders of the Ukrainian, Greek and American Orthodox churches; a prominent rabbi; the leader of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York; even Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York.

But one group was missing from this interfaith tableau: the Russian Orthodox Church, whose leader, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, is an ally of President Vladimir V. Putin. Organizers said Russian Orthodox leaders in New York had been invited but did not reply.

Here in America theyre not taking a position against the Moscow Patriarchate or against the political leadership of Russian Federation, Archbishop Daniel, a leader of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the U.S.A., said of Russian religious leaders in New York. Theyre trying to dance a political dance.

The world of Eastern Orthodox Christianity is complex, with more than a dozen self-governing branches whose leaders live primarily in cities across Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Because New York is home to hundreds of thousands of Orthodox Christians, many of their churches treat it as an American base of operations. Those include the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the Russian Orthodox Church and a subsidiary to it, the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia. The three have outposts within walking distance of one another; the headquarters of the Russian branches are practically neighbors on Manhattans Upper East Side, while the an ornate Ukrainian cathedral sits across Central Park.

Patriarch Kirill is based in Moscow and is the highest authority for both the Russian Church and its New York-based American branch, which merged with the Moscow Patriarchate in 2007. He is also the highest religious authority for most Russian Orthodox parishes in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church became independent in 2019 by decree of the Patriarchate of Constantinople, the religious authority for all Eastern Orthodox branches. That decision outraged Russian political and religious leaders, and the future of the Ukrainian church may hinge on the outcome of the war.

Patriarch Kirill has declined to condemn the Russian invasion. Instead, he has attacked Western culture, in particular gay rights, in recent weeks, and has given a religious cast to Mr. Putins rhetoric about the oneness of Russia and Ukraine.

In a recent statement, Patriarch Kirill asked God to preserve the Russian land from evil forces and specified that he was referring to the land which now includes Russia and Ukraine and Belarus and other tribes and peoples.

That and other statements have drawn rebukes from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the United States. In an interview, Archbishop Daniel described Patriarch Kirill as a product of a Soviet system and a political tool of the Russian state.

The church is one of the departments of propaganda or control of the society, and it has been since the collapse of Soviet Union, the archbishop said. Obviously he will say what he needs to say.

Across the park, an atmosphere of fear has descended on the Ukrainian Cathedrals Russian counterpart, Saint Nicholas Russian Orthodox Cathedral, which is the Moscow Patriarchates administrative and religious headquarters in the United States.

The cathedral draws worshipers from across the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine. In recent days, some parishioners and priests seemed hesitant to discuss the war. Some cited the Russian governments increasing repression, saying they feared endangering loved ones in Russia and Ukraine.

March 15, 2022, 5:21 a.m. ET

One congregant, her face twisted in anguish as she stood on the cathedrals rain-slicked steps, apologized for turning down an interview with a reporter, explaining that her family is in Kharkiv (Ukraines second-largest city, which has been bombed relentlessly since the war began).

A priest, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal, said the cathedral had gotten hate mail since the invasion began, and a protester had even come into the sanctuary and disrupted a religious class. She left after priests called the police, he said.

Whether anyone believes us or not, we are in pain from this, the priest said. We have relatives and friends in Ukraine. Parishioners have relatives and friends in Ukraine.

He said clergy members do not talk about politics in public in part because they do not want to stoke division in the parish. But he said anguish about the war seemed pervasive among the parishioners.

We are trying to explain to people that we are not politicians or about politics, the priest said. At least here, no one asked us our position on whether or not we should begin fighting against Ukraine or not. Everyone here is against it.

Father Sergey Trostyanskiy, a rector of St. Gregory the Theologian Orthodox Mission at Union Theological Seminary, said public discussion of politics was a violation of canon law in the Russian Church, even though Patriarch Kirills public utterances are politically freighted.

Father Trostyanskiy is also a priest with the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia, which was founded in New York after the Russian Revolution and reunited with the Moscow Patriarchate 15 years ago. The church, just blocks away from St. Nicholas, also declined to send a representative to the interfaith event, where the Russian government was denounced, sometimes in vividly religious language.

In a speech at the interfaith prayer service, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraines ambassador to the United Nations, described his Russian counterpart, Vasily Nebenzya, as the herald of Satan and said Ukraine would prevail over Russia because we believe in God. His remarks drew a standing ovation.

Father Trostyanskiy said: The Russian church cannot participate in any event like this.

He said Patriarch Kirills speeches should be read not as endorsements of war, but as an effort to protect the unity of the church, which operates in Ukraine and Russia, by refusing to antagonize the Kremlin.

The bottom line is people expect him to take part in political endeavors, and it is impossible, Father Trostyanskiy said. All the statements from Kirill are constantly, Lets do things peacefully, lets pray and supplicate. That is quite clear. But he will never go against the Russian authorities.

American journalist killed. Brent Renaud, an award-winning American filmmaker and journalist who drew attention to human suffering, was fatally shot while reporting in a suburb of Kyiv. Mr. Renaud, 50, had contributed to The New York Times in previous years, most recently in 2015.

To do so, he added, might be dangerous for any priest or parishioner.

If people participate in more public endeavors where they make more open statements people at this time try not to do that because it might affect their future or the future of their relatives, Father Trostyanskiy said. After this war you never know what is going to happen.

Other Orthodox leaders said Patriarch Kirill was morally obligated to oppose the war publicly, not least for his many followers in Ukraine.

It hurts because we are part of the same church, the Orthodox Church, said Archbishop Daniel, at the Ukrainian cathedral. He is a spiritual leader also for Ukrainian Orthodox Christians who follow the Moscow Patriarchate, and he is not defending them.

But the fear of speaking out was palpable at St. Nicholas, the Russian Orthodox church. Speaking after services there recently, some parishioners said the war had overwhelmed them emotionally. Others said they were afraid of what might happen to their families if they stated their views publicly, even in New York.

One woman, who gave only her first name, Olga, out of fear for her relatives in Russia, including a son and her mother, said she was still haunted by the 15 years her grandfather had spent in a Soviet prison.

I think that kind of thing can happen again, definitely, she said. The situation is getting worse and worse and the newspapers are not telling people the truth.

Coming to St. Nicholas brought her comfort, she said, with prayer and the elaborate rituals of the Orthodox faith providing a respite from worry.

Even normal people cannot say what they think because they are afraid, she added, before walking into the cathedral to pray. Even me, I am thinking about my family.

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How Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches Are Handlng the War - The New York Times

On his visit to Poland last weekend, Secretary of State Antony Blinken walked fifteen feet into Ukraine, as snow began to fall, to meet briefly with its foreign minister. It was symbolic of the Biden Administrations deliberately calibrated policygoing up to the border, but not beyondto avoid any move that the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, could perceive as provocative. For everything were doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war, with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe, Blinken told Meet the Press the next day, from Moldova. Yet, just two weeks into the war, the U.S. increasingly fears being drawn into a war with Russia. The undercurrent to frantic diplomacy and waves of U.S. military deploymentsthousands more troops dispatched to Europe, Patriot-missile batteries to Poland, and B-52 bombers flying over Central Europeis the palpable fear that the unthinkable is now thinkable.

On Tuesday, a new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia will pursue its interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine and other countries in its near-abroad. In testimony on the Hill, William Burns, the C.I.A. director and a former Ambassador to Russia, was pressed about Vladimir Putins intent. Hes not going to stop at Ukraine, correct? asked Representative Jackie Speier, of California. Burns replied, Thats what makes it more important than ever to demonstrate that hes not going to succeed in Ukraine. The stakes, Burns acknowledged, are bigger. This is one of those pivotal points where we and all of our allies and partners need to act.

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Since Russias invasion, the besieged Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly warned the West about the danger that Putin would target other European nations. Everyone thinks that we are far away from America or Canada. No, we are in this zone of freedom, Zelensky said in a television interview, on Monday. And, when the limits of rights and freedoms are being violated and stepped on, then you have to protect us. Because we will come first. You will come second. Because, the more this beast will eat, he wants more, more, and more.

The U.S., however, pushed back this week on key military requests from Ukraine, for fear of Russias reaction. Putins reckless offensive has forced the U.S. to adopt awkward policy positions. On March 5th, Zelensky made an impassioned appeal to members of the House and Senate for more military aid, notably help in obtaining Soviet-era warplanes that Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly and that could balance Russias air superiority. On Wednesday, the Pentagon rejected an offer from Poland to turn over twenty-eight MIG-29 fighter jets to U.S. custodyflying them to a base in Germanyfor transfer to Ukraine. U.S. intelligence officials assessed that an American role in a transfer may be mistaken as escalatory and could result in significant Russian reaction that might increase the prospects of a military escalation with NATO, the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, told reporters. U.S. involvement was deemed to be high risk. The majority of Ukraines warplanes are still intact, a senior Defense Department official added, while acknowledging that Russias surface-to-air missiles now have an umbrella that covers virtually all of Ukraine.

The Administration cited the same fears about Zelenskys request for help from NATO in establishing a no-fly zone over part of Ukraine to protect civilians. We also have to see to it that this war does not expand, Blinken said on Wednesday, at a joint press conference with his British counterpart. Our goal is to end the war, not to expand it, including potentially expand it to NATO territory. Otherwise, he warned, its going to turn even deadlier, involve more people, and I think potentially even make things harder to resolve in Ukraine itself.

On Thursday, Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, acknowledged that the U.S. is now in a uniquely challenging position. We are obviously providing enormous amounts of support to the Ukrainians, as we should and need to do, she told the Senate Intelligence Committee. But at the same time trying not to escalate the conflict into a full-on NATO or U.S. war with Russia. And thats a challenging space to manage.

Yet, at each of his four stops in NATO countries near Russia, Blinken heard dire predictions about the broader Russian threat beyond Ukraineand the need for the U.S. to do more. In Riga, on Monday, the Latvian Foreign Minister, Edgars Rinkvis, lamented to Blinken, We have no illusions about Putins Russia anymore. In Vilnius, the Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, turned to Blinken and said, Deterrence is no longer enough. We need more defense here, because otherwise it will be too late here, Mr. Secretary. Putin will not stop in Ukraine; he will not stop. And in Tallinn, on Tuesday, the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, said that NATO countries need to adapt to the new reality of a very aggressive Russia and permanently strengthen their defenses in the air, on land, and at sea. Pressed on what specifically countries on Russias borders needed, she replied, Everything.

Eastern European countriesnotably those once allied with, or part of, the former Soviet Unions empirehave long warned of the potential for Russian aggression. We, the Poles, are already tired of reminding everyone: We told ya so, Marek Magierowski, Polands Ambassador to the U.S., told me in an interview this week. He cited the forewarning by the late Polish President Lech Kaczynski during the Russian invasion of Georgia, in 2008. Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrowthe Baltic states and later, perhaps, time will come for my country, Poland, Kaczynski had said.

Magierowski added, We have never had any doubts whatsoever about Vladimir Putins neo-imperial ambitions. Putin has been waiting for this window of opportunity for years, he said. He convinced himself that the West is weak, divided, wallowing in a decadent mood. He thought the free world wouldnt care about Ukraines fate, as it didnt care about Czechoslovakias in 1938, when Europe tolerated Nazi Germanys annexation of the Sudetenland. Putin, he told me, is similarly emboldened because the West was tragically lenient and outrageously complacent after Russia murdered the defector Alexander Litvinenko, in 2006; invaded and annexed Crimea, in 2014; helped destroy the Syrian city of Aleppo, in 2016; reportedly used chemical weapons to poison the former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, in 2018; and poisoned the opposition leader Alexey Navalny, in 2020. Over the past three decades, Eastern Europeans have often encountered skepticism of their view of Putin as the U.S. and Western Europeans, notably the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, advocated dealing pragmatically with Russia.

During his European trip, Blinken repeatedly promised that NATO, this time, would prevent further Russian expansion. We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power, he vowed, in Estonia. But U.S. experts worry, too, about an unintended incident triggering a wider war, like the spark that ignited the First World War, a conflict that dragged on for four years and killed tens of millions. Russias invasion of Ukraine could easily escalate into a larger conflict stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea and further west into Europe, Thomas E. Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned in a new report issued on Tuesday. It might not matter what the U.S. does, he wrote. Crippling sanctions could provoke Putin to lash out with greater violence, Graham cautioned. But, if NATO appeared restrained, Moscow could be tempted to press militarily even further into Europe to enlarge its sphere of influence. The rippling impact of broader Russian aggression would stress the geopolitical, economic, and institutional foundations of the international order created after the Second World War, Graham wrote.

Given the Russian leaders history, Angela Stent, a former National Intelligence officer and the author of Putins World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest, is worried about a miscalculation. The concern we have to have immediately is that the war in Ukraine doesnt inadvertently spread to Poland or Romania by some unforeseen clash, which would then have to involve NATO in a war with Russia, she told me. Stent also worries about Putins intentions short of war. You can use nonmilitary means to disrupt societies. And hes already been doing that for the past couple of decades. As the Russian leader grows increasingly cornered, she added, he will seek to exploit popular sentiment in countries like Serbia, where a pro-Russia march to support the war was held last week. The new U.S. intelligence assessment warns that Russia will employ an array of tools to undermine the interests of the U.S. and its NATO allies. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises whenever it sees an opportunity, it concludes.

On Wednesday, the Biden Administration issued a forceful denial after Russias bizarre claim that the U.S. and Ukraine were developing chemical and biological weapons. The State Department spokesperson, Ned Price, said that Moscow has a long track record of accusing the U.S. of the very crimes that Russia is perpetrating. These tactics are an obvious ploy by Russia to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attacks, he said.

Russia, as the aggressor, still has the upper hand. But, for the U.S. and its allies, the one positive sign is that the performance of the Ukrainian military has exceeded expectations. Russian forces have fallen far short of Putins goal of a swift seizure of Kyiv and the ouster of Zelenskys government. The first two weeks have, instead, been grinding for Moscow. U.S. intelligence estimates that between two thousand and four thousand troops fighting for Russianot all of them Russianhave died in the first two weeks. The bravery of Ukrainians, so far, has prevented the worst-case scenario.

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The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West - The New Yorker

Long before the first shot was fired, diplomats the world over have been trying to find a way to broker some sort of peace between Ukraine and Russia.

After two grueling weeks of bitter combat, that goal is more elusive than ever.

With the war seemingly poised to drag on, ABC News spoke to foreign policy experts about Russian President Vladimir Putin's next strategic steps, the fine line the West is walking to support Ukraine, and how the conflict could ripple beyond its borders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government via teleconference in Moscow, March 10, 2022.

'A cornered beast, if you will, can be dangerous'

Putin's invasion into Ukraine has been met by expectedly punishing sanctions from the U.S. and its allies, as well as unexpectedly effective resistance from Ukrainian fighters. At least for now, both seem unlikely to change the Kremlin's calculations or diminish Putin's determination.

While it will take time for Russia to feel the full impact of economic restrictions levied against it and Ukraine's ability to withstand a prolonged assault is an open question, Dan Hamilton, a former high-level State Department official and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said pushing Putin to the brink could have unpredictable consequences.

"In his mind, he doesn't want to go down in history as the leader who 'lost Ukraine,'" he said. "A cornered beast, if you will, can be dangerous."

But despite setbacks, Andrew Lohsen, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Putin is undaunted.

"We've heard from Vladimir Putin himself that he thinks that this war is still winnable. He hasn't given up on his objectives. And his he seems still very determined to press on," said Lohsen. "The indications that we have so far is that he is still really doubling down and pressing further with his invasion rather than taking a step back."

Explosions are seen during shelling in a residential district in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 10, 2022.

Just as they made clear what the consequences of an incursion would be before Russia advanced into Ukraine, Lohsen says world leaders will ultimately need to identify an "off-ramp" for Putin by indicating exactly how de-escalation will yield sanctions relief.

"We need to give the sanctions time to bite," he said. "Once we start to see some sort of concern among the top levels of leadership, then I think it would be appropriate to start a conversation about the conditionality of these sanctions. What would we remove in exchange for a withdrawal of Russian forces?"

But whether Putin will elect to take that off-ramp is another question entirely.

"My concern is that Putin has painted this conflict in such hyperbolic terms, I think it's going to be really hard for him to step back from the brink. He said that Ukrainians have committed genocide, he said Ukraine has a desire to acquire nuclear weapons," Lohsen said, referencing the lies Putin used to justify military action. "So when you're engaging in a war with a state with such supposedly nefarious aims, them how do you reach a negotiated solution where you leave that leadership in place and you don't completely stop that country from pressing on with the objectives you've ascribed to it?"

And for Putin, negotiating an end to the conflict he started wouldn't mean an end to its consequences.

"They want to bring Putin up on was crimes -- take him to The Hague. Those things don't go away," said Hamilton. "It's very hard to see how Putin would sign an agreement when he's being prosecuted."

This image taken from video issued by Mariupol City Council shows the aftermath of the Mariupol Hospital after an attack, in Mariupol, Ukraine, March 9, 2022. A Russian attack severely damaged the children's hospital and maternity ward in the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said.

Should the US and allies do more?

Amid an onslaught of grim reports and haunting images from the streets of Ukraine, a "wait and see" kind of approach can feel frustratingly futile. While the crisis has prompted a rare bipartisan outpouring of support in the U.S., funneling assistance to the country remains a delicate dance.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect civilians, but the Biden administration and NATO have made it clear it's a nonstarter because enforcing airspace restrictions would almost certainly mean direct conflict with Russia.

"The fear of nuclear escalation is the number one consideration here," said Clint Reach, a former Russian linguist with the Department of Defense and a policy analyst at RAND. "That's the elephant in the room when it comes to direct military intervention."

As made evident by the Pentagon rejecting Poland's plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine via a U.S.-NATO airbase in Germany, there's significant concern that roundabout assistance could also spur significant blowback.

"We don't have a full understanding of Russian red lines and how much intervention they're willing to accept," said Reach.

Zelenskyy and Republicans on Capitol Hill have argued that funneling more military equipment into Ukraine sooner would have made a difference in the conflict. Experts aren't so certain.

"We could have just sped up the invasion timeline," countered Reach. "No Russian president is ever going to allow Ukraine to become a U.S. aircraft carriermeaning Ukraine becomes a platform for military capability that could threaten Russia. If they felt that scenario was playing out, they probably would have intervened."

"Until Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, I think there was adequate caution in trying not to engage in anything that might provoke this scenario," said Lohsen. "What we got wrong collectively was the belief that Putin could be deterred."

A U.S. Army MIM-104 Patriot anti-missile defense launcher stands pointing east at Rzeszow Jasionska airport, currently being used by the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division, on March 08, 2022 near Rzeszow, Poland.

Could the conflict spiral beyond Ukraine?

Despite the great pains taken to avoid escalation, many predict it's only a matter of time before the discord metastasizes further into Europe -- and perhaps even beyond the continent.

Hamilton points out that while Moldova -- a small country abutting Ukraine's southern border -- has already seen a surge of refugees fleeing the fighting, it could also become a launching pad for Russian troops closing in on Odesa.

"Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe," Hamilton said. "We already have a humanitarian crisis, and we could have a next crisis of military escalation involving troops coming not just from Belarus and Russia, but also from Moldova. That's very problematic."

And while Western powers attempt to walk a tightrope while supplying aid to Ukraine, whether they are ultimately drawn into the fight depends in part on Russia's reaction.

"The question has been would Russia try to preempt some arm transfers at the point of originlike firing missiles into Poland at bases where they thought this military equipment was housed," said Reach, noting that while that would be at the severe end of the spectrum, the Kremlin could also retaliate with asymmetric attacks, like cyberstrikes.

While escalatory, Reach believes it's a move Moscow could ultimately make.

"There are potentially large tradeoffs for Russia that they'd have to think long and hard about," he said.

Read more:

What is the threat of a 'cornered' Putin as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on? - ABC News

Honeywell's decision to halt business activities in Russia following the country's invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to cause problems for the company's balance sheet, CEO Darius Adamczyk told CNBC on Monday.

"It has some implications, but it's the right thing to do, it's a little bit north of 1% of our overall shares, and our manufacturing presence there is relatively small," Adamczyk said in an interview on "Mad Money."

"We'll see what happens. We're monitoring the situation," he added.

The technology firm is one of hundreds of companies that have stopped or curtailed operations in Russia including Adidas, McDonald's and Apple. The company announced its decision to "substantially" suspend its activities on March 8.

As for the company's other possible headwinds, Adamczyk said that Honeywell's supply chain and raw material costs have been manageable. Honeywell's fourth quarter revenue fell short of expectations last month due to supply chain issues, among other factors.

"We've actually done a good job of protecting that business. Titanium is something we watch very closely and some of the components there, but we've been a little bit ahead of the game and secured sources of supply, so we're in pretty good shape there."

Honeywell stock was up 0.53% at the end of Monday's trading session.

When asked about future plans, Adamczyk said that the company plans to buy $4 billion worth of shares, which he considers to currently be a "bargain," and look toward making acquisitions.

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Honeywell CEO says suspending business in Russia wont be a major headwind - CNBC

The 1930s tariffs were crafted to charge high levies on imports of manufactured goods and farm products but low rates on imports of raw materials a design that would limit costs for U.S. factories, Mr. Gresser wrote in a blog post.

The U.S. tariff on palladium, for example, which is used in catalytic converters, would remain at 0 percent after the change, according to Mr. Gressers research. Tariffs on other significant exports from Russia, like king crab, uranium and urea, which is used in fertilizer, would also remain at 0 percent.

Tariffs would be somewhat higher for other products, like unwrought aluminum alloy, birch-faced plywood, bullets and certain steel products.

Energy imports from Russia which accounted for about 60 percent of what the United States imported from the country last year would face slightly higher tariffs. But Mr. Biden already announced this week that the United States would stop all shipments of Russian oil, gas and coal, a far more sweeping measure.

Mr. Gresser wrote that revoking Russias preferential trading status would impose some penalties, but in most cases not very significant ones.

It may nonetheless be an appropriate symbolic and moral gesture, in particular if many W.T.O. members join in it, he wrote. But as a policy measure meant specifically to impose economic cost, the energy import ban is the one with practical real-world impact.

Russia or another country, such as China, could challenge the decision to strip Russia of its trade status by bringing a case against the United States, the European Union or other countries at the World Trade Organization. But the global trade body offers large exceptions for actions taken to protect national security, and the United States and Europe could cite that rationale in their defense.

Reporting was contributed by Catie Edmondson, Katie Rogers, Alan Rappeport and Liz Alderman.

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US and Allies Will Strip Russia of Favored Trade Status - The New York Times

WASHINGTON Top U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been surprised and unsettled by the problems that have hampered his military in Ukraine, issues that will make it more difficult for Russian forces to control the country.

But Mr. Putin is determined to succeed in Ukraine, and will try to double down and use ever more brutal tactics, the officials said during an appearance before the House Intelligence Committee.

Americas intelligence agencies, which before the attack released information on Russias troop buildup and war plans, will work to highlight Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the information war that helped rally the West to impose tough sanctions on the country, the officials said.

Before the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the war would be relatively quick, allowing him to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, told lawmakers.

Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraines resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues and considerable logistical issues, Ms. Haines said.

Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate even more forces than Russia has committed to the fight, she said.

Some allied intelligence services believe that Mr. Putins early military problems could cause him to readjust his plans to take control of the whole country, and stop his advance after he captures Kyiv, particularly if military officers highlight how many additional forces it will require to secure Ukraine.

But diplomats are also quick to add that they are not sure how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the situation. At the hearing, Ms. Haines said Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his campaign, despite his militarys logistical problems.

Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks, Ms. Haines said, and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO.

Given the problems the Russian military has faced, and the rising will of Ukraine to fight, intelligence officials predicted the war would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an ugly next few weeks.

I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now, Mr. Burns said. He is likely to try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties, he added.

Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said there was a limit to how long Kyiv could hold on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. With supplies being cut off, it will become somewhat desperate in, I would say, 10 days to two weeks, General Berrier said.

Other estimates are similar. Some allied governments believe Russia will finish encircling Kyiv in a week and, given the strength of Ukraines resistance, the city may be able to hold out for another month, a European diplomat said on Tuesday.

March 15, 2022, 5:21 a.m. ET

While the intelligence chiefs said Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns said it would be incorrect to view his actions as crazy.

The Russian leaders increasing isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him extremely difficult to deal with, Mr. Burns said. Without aides willing to push back, Mr. Putin entered the war misunderstanding the will of Ukraine to fight back and the West to take action.

Germany, for example, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would have allowed imported Russian natural gas to bypass Ukraine; sent weapons directly to Ukraine; and expanded its defense budget.

Hes been unsettled by Western reaction and allied resolve, particularly some of the decisions that the German government has taken, Mr. Burns said. I think hes been unsettled by the performance of his own military.

American journalist killed. Brent Renaud, an award-winning American filmmaker and journalist who drew attention to human suffering, was fatally shot while reporting in a suburb of Kyiv. Mr. Renaud, 50, had contributed to The New York Times in previous years, most recently in 2015.

General Berrier said he had low confidence in reports of Russian casualties, but put Moscows losses at 2,000 to 4,000.

Mr. Burns said the American government was keeping a close eye on Mr. Putins domestic support. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and independent reporting on the invasion essentially being made illegal, it will take time for Russians to absorb the consequences of Mr. Putins actions.

But, over time, funerals of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will have an impact, Mr. Burns said.

You also see, in relatively small numbers, a lot of very courageous Russians out on the street protesting, Mr. Burns said. Something like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which is not a small thing in a deeply repressive society like Russia.

Other governments said another crucial factor is whether Mr. Putins support within the military erodes. Before the invasion, Russian officers complained about the plan, according to intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlins planning now continues, the European diplomat said.

The intelligence community will expand its information war with Russia, working to expose Moscows war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines said. American spy agencies were working with other agencies to document Russian actions in Ukraine, including war crimes, and to hold the perpetrators accountable.

Russian forces are at the very least operating with reckless disregard for the safety of noncombatants, as Russian units launch artillery and airstrikes into urban areas as they have done in cities across Ukraine, Ms. Haines said.

Such an information campaign to expose Russias attacks on civilians and other missteps would build on the intelligence released before the invasion, which sought to expose Russias war plans, rally allied support for tough financial sanctions and deny Moscow the chance to create a false pretext for an attack.

Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the National Security Agency, said that the United States had closely tracked three or four Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that reinforced Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.

In terms of why they havent done more, I think thats obviously some of the work that the Ukrainians have done, some of the challenges that the Russians have encountered and some of the work that others have been able to do to prevent their actions, General Nakasone said.

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U.S. Intelligence Tells Congress Putin Is Unlikely to Be Deterred - The New York Times