Daily Archives: March 8, 2022

One of the most consistently fun, annoying, and frustrating things about being a retired military intelligence officer is how frequently random military vehicles get called tanks. Look, I know, tanks are kind of cool, I get it; I spent a lot of time in them in my career, starting with this vintage M60A1 at Ft. Bliss, Texas. But not everything painted with camouflage that can move is a main battle tank.

So, what are we seeing north of Kyiv that the media has been fixated on for the last several days? What does it mean? Is it a harbinger of the expected siege and fall of Kyiv 1,000 tanks and artillery pieces? Or is it something else?

You can tell much about the point of view of the reporter covering this column of vehicles by the degree of alarm accorded it. But the satellite photos, called overhead imagery by intelligence fossils like myself, released by Maxar Technologies show mostly trucks with some local security.

That theyve been on the road now for as long as four days tells a lot about the operation they are supporting, the terrain, and the leadership and training of the force.

When an intelligence officer regards the terrain on which he is to provide advice to his commander, he conducts a thorough analysis, looking that the size and quality of roads, the capabilities of bridges, chokepoints, and the corridors in which combat vehicles can tactically maneuver.

The roughly 80-mile route from the Belarus-Ukraine border from the Chernobyl salient to Kyiv on the western side of the Dnieper River runs over a secondary asphalt road. This road frequently crosses rivers, runs through small villages, or is bordered on both sides by the eastern extent of the mighty Pripyat Marsh the geographical feature which defines the border between Ukraine and Belarus.

The road is not able to support a large military force, even if unopposed in an exercise, especially during the spring and fall months during a time the locals call Rasputitsa the mud season. Unfortunately for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military commanders, Ukrainian soil never froze solid this winter, so the fall Rasputitsa is still a factor.

This is why there have been so many photos coming out from the conflict that show all manner of Russian military vehicles bogged down in the mud. As soon as a vehicle on a narrow road becomes disabled or is destroyed in combat, or as the vehicles maneuver off-road in response to combat, they risk becoming mired. Even if they dont get stuck in the mud, they end up consuming far more fuel that must be delivered to them than they would were the ground frozen solid.

Thus, that 40-mile-long column of tanks is more likely mostly trucks carrying fuel, ammunition, and food to the advanced forces of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army on the outskirts of Kyiv. That this column hasnt apparently moved much may mean that the Russian forces just north of Kyiv are running low on basic supplies.

This greatly increases the importance for the Russian army to achieve success to the east of Kyiv where the road network is far more developed and, if the terrain is captured and secured, capable of bringing in the volume of supplies needed to properly surround Kyiv and place it under siege.

In the meantime, the forces near Kyiv may be vulnerable to a Ukrainian counterattack. While some of the Russian conscript soldiers and even the veteran contract troops may be more likely to surrender due to low morale exacerbated by a lack of food and fuel.

Chuck DeVore is vice president of national initiatives at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a former California legislator, special assistant for foreign affairs in the Reagan-era Pentagon, and a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army (retired) Reserve. He's the author of two books, "The Texas Model: Prosperity in the Lone Star State and Lessons for America," and "China Attacks," a novel.

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Russian 'Tanks' Outside Kyiv Are Probably Not What You Think They Are - The Federalist

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine stretches into its second week, and Moscows tactics shift to the direct targeting of urban centers and civilian populations, the United States and our European allies are facing tough questions about how much assistance to give the Ukrainians without becoming belligerents or being considered belligerents by Russia and thus widening the war.

As I write, Russian forces are laying siege to cities across Ukraine, contesting vital ports, and targeting civilians and critical infrastructure. The bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraines second-largest city, has left at least dozens dead and hundreds more injured. Russian troops are now in control of Kherson, a major city in the south. The southern port city of Mariupol has been encircled, and the Russian attack there has cut power, water, and heat. Kyiv is under attack, and there are reports that Russia is preparing a major amphibious assault on Odessa.

Meanwhile, our leaders appear to be living in a fantasyland where their expressions of solidarity with Ukraine mean something tangible. Economic sanctions, the banning of Russian products from store shelves, the exclusion of Russian cats from cat shows, and theseizure of mega-yachts owned by Russian oligarchs, among other weak and inchoate responses from the West,are not going to stop Russian artillery and missiles from reducing Ukrainian cities to rubble in the coming days and weeks. The Ukrainians have fought bravely and inspired the world with their valor, but a new phase of the war is beginning, and Western leaders need to think seriously about whats coming, and how this will end.

To stop the Russian invasion, the Ukrainians need more from the West than economic sanctions and bans on Russian products. They need heavy weapons, munitions, air support, and real-time intelligence from Western powers, and they need these thingsright now. The NATO allies understand this, on some level, and are pouring weapons into Ukraine rocket launchers, Javelin antitank missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, along with machine guns, sniper rifles, and ammunition.

But they arenot sending military aircraft, and they are not sending troops. The United States will not even impose sanctions on Russian oil or entertain the idea of ramping up domestic oil production to offset Russian imports. A White House flack told reporters aboard Air Force One this week: We dont have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy. So thats that.

The West, it seems, is trying to go right up to the line of belligerence without crossing it. Helping Ukraine, but not helping too much. For example, it appears that the U.S. issharing some targeting intelligencewith Ukraine but not real-time targeting of the kind that would enable Ukraine to take out individual Russian units.

Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., chair of the House Armed Services Committee, who said Thursday morning on MSNBC that we are providing some intelligence to Ukraine, also said that real-time targeting would cross a line to marking us participating in the war. Hours later, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki implied that we were not giving any targeting intelligence to Ukraine, whichprompted pushbackfrom Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who called Psakis comments truthy and that they do not capture the full reality.

Most likely, we are indeed providing targeting intelligence to Ukraine, but giving them the information only after a delay, so Russia cannot accuse us of assisting in the direct targeting of their forces.

Thats just one example of the needle Western powers are trying to thread. As the war goes on, and the fighting intensifies in and around Ukraines urban centers, the eye of that needle, so to speak, will get smaller and smaller. That means our leaders need to get serious about what they are prepared to do, and not do, in the defense of Ukraine. And they need to be clear with Ukraine and Russia about their intentions.

Right now, there is a galling lack of seriousness and clarity among them. On Thursday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., took to Twitter to call for the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as if thats a realistic option to end the crisis and avert catastrophe in Ukraine.

His comment follows other reckless comments in recent days from U.S. lawmakers and former generals calling for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A no-fly zone would mean NATO warplanes shooting down Russian warplanes. It would mean open war with Russia. Thats precisely what some neocons in Washington want,for reasons of their own, but its not something the vast majority of Americans want.

Here is the hard truth: If the West is not going to send warplanes and troops, if we are not going to stop Russias invasion of Ukraine by force of arms, and by our inaction allow the bombardment of Ukrainian cities to proceed, then we need to be honest with the Ukrainians about that. We owe it to them to give them a realistic picture of what they can expect from us, and what they cannot expect. Indeed, we owe them a great deal more, but we at least owe them that.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is understandably trying to get NATO involved in the war. He is doing what any leader should do in his position, and he will likely go down in history for his courage and bravery in the face of the enemy. But if there is an off-ramp that might prevent what now appears to be the inevitable reduction of Ukraine to rubble, then Western leaders should not block it with bellicose talk and weak half-measures. We have had quite enough of both. Indeed, there wereopportunities for the West to prevent this war, to persuade Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate a settlement, going back years. But in our fecklessness, we chose not to and instead kept talking tough and hoping for the best.

Now that Russia has entered this new phase of the war, the worst thing we could do for the Ukrainians would be to give them false hope as Russian forces close in, and then do nothing while their cities burn. If we will not do whats necessary to stop Russia by force, then we should do what we can, right now, to broker a negotiated peace.

John Daniel Davidson is a senior editor at The Federalist. His writing has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Claremont Review of Books, The New York Post, and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter, @johnddavidson.

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If The West Won't Stop Putin By Force, It Should Help Negotiate Peace - The Federalist

House Democrats shot down legislation to reclaim energy independence on Tuesday hours before President Joe Biden offered a rallying cry for his administrations climate agenda.

The American Energy Independence from Russia Act introduced by the House Energy and Commerce Committees ranking member Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., was rejected primarily along partisan lines 221 to 202. Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz was the sole member of the lower chamber to cross the aisle, joining Democrats in opposition with objections over new leases along his states coast.

America, not Russia, is the worlds number one energy producer, Rodgers said on the House floor advocating for her legislation. We should act like it and lead. President Biden must restore American energy dominance and use energy resources to help Ukraine and Europe fight back.

The bills partisan failure comes less than a week after Russia, a global energy producer supplying more than 10 percent of the worlds oil, launched its assault on Ukraine. Last year, the United States doubled its imports of Russian crude and took in more than 400,000 barrels on average daily in December, the last month for which data is available from the Energy Information Administration.

Oil and gas revenues, meanwhile, fund Moscows war machine as Russias largest exports, allowing President Vladimir Putin to weaponize his countrys monopoly on Western energy. Last year, Russia generated $119 billion from its energy resources, according toreportingby Reuters citing Russias Finance Ministry.

The United States is forecast by the Energy Department to remain a net importer of oil under Biden as the White House works to suppress domestic production in the name of climate change. Biden reiterated his commitment to phase out fossil fuels with unreliable forms of renewable energy in his prime-time address to Congress on Tuesday night despite driving energy costs to seven-year highs.

The enthusiastic forfeiture of American energy independence has removed a key economic lever to sanction Russia for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands of displaced refugees have fled the violence.

Tuesdays failed legislation sought to counter Russias energy influence and Ukrainian aggression by unleashing American production to lower oil prices and displace Russian imports. The bill reauthorized the Keystone XL Pipeline axed by Biden on his first day in office, which transported more than double the oil imported from Russia in December. The legislation also mandated the resumption of leases for oil and gas drilling on federal land. Biden quietly paused leases again last month through a legal maneuver, contesting rules governing the social cost of carbon calculations.

If it had passed, the Republican bill also would have required the administration to release a plan on energy security within 30 days and replace oil reserves withdrawn from the emergency stockpile. On Tuesday, Biden announced the U.S. would tap 30 million of its 590 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves maintained for emergencies. The reserves are authorized to hold up to 714 million barrels.

In November, Biden ordered the release of 60 million barrels ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, which is about three days worth of daily oil consumption, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Tristan Justice is the western correspondent for The Federalist. He has also written for The Washington Examiner and The Daily Signal. His work has also been featured in Real Clear Politics and Fox News. Tristan graduated from George Washington University where he majored in political science and minored in journalism. Follow him on Twitter at @JusticeTristan or contact him at Tristan@thefederalist.com.

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Democrats Torpedo Legislation Aimed To Reclaim Energy Independence - The Federalist

The National Football League (NFL) announced Thursday players and staff would no longer be required to follow dystopian procedures implemented to track and isolate the novel Wuhan coronavirus.

In a memo sent to all 32 teams, the league said it came to an agreement with the NFL Players Association to suspend all aspects of the joint COVID-19 Protocols, effective immediately.

Should there be a reason to impose aspects of the Protocols or to take other measures, we will work closely with clubs, the NFLPA and our respective experts, and local, state and federal public health officials to continue to safeguard the health of the NFL community, the league added.

The drop of procedures comes as U.S. cases and hospitalizations plummet from their fifth wave peak of more than 1.4 million new cases a day and a seven-day average of more than 150,000 hospitalizations in January. The U.S. reported just more than 58,000 new cases and a daily average of just more than 8,700 in ICUs on March 2, according to The New York Times, as the nation finally transitions into a state living with the virus as opposed to trying to eliminate the airborne pathogen.

Players who didnt follow the Covid regimen prescribed by government officials found themselves mired in faux scandal. Last fall, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers tested positive for the coronavirus after he remained unvaccinated to the ire of left-wing football fans.

Meanwhile fans, including prominent politicians ordering citizens to adhere to mask mandates, had already dropped compliance with mass Covid protocols. Last month, thousands of fans packed Californias SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for the Super Bowl, skirting mask rules despite local mandates still in place.

L.A.s Democrat Mayor Eric Garcetti was among them even after catching flak for flouting his citys mask mandate at the same stadium days earlier in a picture with former Lakers legend Magic Johnson.

Garcetti excused himself for the infraction, claiming he was holding his breath, before he was caught maskless again at the Super Bowl.

Tristan Justice is the western correspondent for The Federalist. He has also written for The Washington Examiner and The Daily Signal. His work has also been featured in Real Clear Politics and Fox News. Tristan graduated from George Washington University where he majored in political science and minored in journalism. Follow him on Twitter at @JusticeTristan or contact him at Tristan@thefederalist.com.

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NFL Lifts Covid Restrictions After Using Them To Harass Aaron Rodgers, Others - The Federalist

Russias invasion of Ukraine should be a wake-up call for the sleeping European Union countries getting fat and lazy under Americas cozy security blanket. But it should also be a wake-up call for Americans who care about the U.S. military, because that security blanket is being pulled apart by the far-left.

War is the continuation of policy by other means, and how a country fights is a reflection of its domestic politics. If the left is allowed to control Americas military, well soon be defended by social justice snowflakes, armed with weak sanctions and copies of the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights.

Gen. Jim Mattis is right: the United States isnt predestined to win the next war. Thankfully, Ukraine isnt our war; 20 years of recent American bloodshed was enough. But one day our backs might be against the wall and we may not have a military capable of winning. While Washington has been obsessed with gender and race, Moscow and Beijing have been building armies undistracted by political correctness.

And I promise you that this woke obsession is going to cost lives, because mortars dont pick between people when they explode and projectiles dont care about skin color or genitalia. When bullets start ricocheting off Humvee doors, all the B.S. you think matters goes right out the window. In that moment, all that counts are the lives of the men and women around you.

If youve experienced combat, you know why theres no room for wokeism in the military. Its completely contradictory to mission success. What matters on the battlefield is the diversity of your firepower, not the diversity of your personnel.

My generation of veterans proves that the answer to race in the military is to judge people on merit, not identity. We just spent two decades risking life, limb, and eyesight fighting a war together; skin color, religion, and identity were irrelevant. We celebrated diversity by maintaining high standards.

I fought side by side with Afghans and Iraqis. While they bickered over tribal differences, their race, creed, and color werent a factor when I selected fighting forces from among them. Americans dont care about tribal differences, because were are all one tribe.

But thats not what our soldiers are being told. Instead, critical race theory is pitting our men and women in uniform against each another and the very country for which they fight. Its hurting unit cohesion and damaging mission success.

You cant go to war if you dont believe in your countrys values. You cant enforce American foreign policy at the point of a black rifle if you doubt its virtue. And you cant defend the person next to you if you think they are your oppressor because of their skin color.

The far-left is forcing the same social engineering in the military that they force into everything else. When you select warfighters for anything other than capability, youre going to get people killed.

Whats to prevent the military academies from taking race into account when admitting cadets? What happens to retention if some of the best noncoms are denied entry to the senior leader course because theyre the wrong color? What happens to combat effectiveness if theres a race-based points system during Special Forces selection?

To most Americans, especially in the military community, this would be plain stupid. Not only is it morally wrong but, despite what youve been told, most Americans arent racists: we still believe in Martin Luther King Jr. and we want a color-blind society.

The military is one of the institutions that has historically helped to achieve Kings dream. Thats because its a forcing function, putting every kind of American in situations where each must succeed together regardless of his identity. The best business school in the country isnt Harvard or Yales, its the U.S. military, teaching on campuses from Parris Island to Fort Bragg.

As a result, veterans provide a pool of talented leaders who contribute to their communities, uninterested in ideology. If youre trying to complete a mission or turn a profit, you just want the best people.

This is why the far-left is gunning for our soldiers. In only one recent example, the U.S. Department of Defense saw fit to tweet an article telling soldiers that woke ideas like equity are necessities. Theyre destroying the military in order to change our domestic culture and in doing so, theyre jeopardizing our ability to win wars.

Everyone who loves America should take the wake-up call of the Ukraine invasion very seriously. Despite the Biden administrations wishful thinking, war is unfortunately part of the human condition. When the next one comes, our military needs to be made up of the most talented warfighters available, not people picked on the basis of their identity.

They need to know that they are doing the right thing, on behalf of a good and just United States. And they need a president who has the backbone to say so.

Evan Hafer is a former Army Special Forces soldier and CIA contractor. He is currently CEO of Black Rifle Coffee.

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Diversity And Equity In The US Military Endangers National Security - The Federalist